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NASA NTRS1999

A Survey of Collective Intelligence

This chapter presents the science of "COllective INtelligence" (COIN). A COIN is a large multi-agent systems where: i) the agents each run reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms; ii) there is little to no centralized communication or control; iii) there is a provided world utility function that, rates the possible histories of tile full system. Tile conventional approach to designing large distributed systems to optimize a world utility does not use agents running RL algorithms. Rather that approach begins with explicit modeling of the overall system's dynamics, followed by detailed hand-tuning of the interactions between the components to ensure that they "cooperate" as far as the world utility is concerned. This approach is labor-intensive, often results in highly non-robust systems, and usually results in design techniques that, have limited applicability. In contrast, with COINs we wish to solve the system design problems implicitly, via the 'adaptive' character of the RL algorithms of each of the agents. This COIN approach introduces an entirely new, profound design problem: Assuming the RL algorithms are able to achieve high rewards, what reward functions for the individual agents will, when pursued by those agents, result in high world utility? In other words, what reward functions will best ensure that we do not have phenomena like the tragedy of the commons, or Braess's paradox? Although still very young, the science of COINs has already resulted in successes in artificial domains, in particular in packet-routing, the leader-follower problem, and in variants of Arthur's "El Farol bar problem". It is expected that as it matures not only will COIN science expand greatly the range of tasks addressable by human engineers, but it will also provide much insight into already established scientific fields, such as economics, game theory, or population biology.

Wolpert, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Development of Position-Sensitive Magnetic Calorimeters for X-Ray Astronomy

Metallic magnetic calorimeters (MMC) are one of the most promising devices to provide very high energy resolution needed for future astronomical x-ray spectroscopy. MMC detectors can be built to large detector arrays having thousands of pixels. Position-sensitive magnetic (PoSM) microcalorimeters consist of multiple absorbers thermally coupled to one magnetic micro calorimeter. Each absorber element has a different thermal coupling to the MMC, resulting in a distribution of different pulse shapes and enabling position discrimination between the absorber elements. PoSMs therefore achieve the large focal plane area with fewer number of readout channels without compromising spatial sampling. Excellent performance of PoSMs was achieved by optimizing the designs of key parameters such as the thermal conductance among the absorbers, magnetic sensor, and heat sink, as well as the absorber heat capacities. Micro fab ri - cation techniques were developed to construct four-absorber PoSMs, in which each absorber consists of a two-layer composite of bismuth and gold. The energy resolution (FWHM full width at half maximum) was measured to be better than 5 eV at 6 keV x-rays for all four absorbers. Position determination was demonstrated with pulse-shape discrimination, as well as with pulse rise time. X-ray microcalorimeters are usually designed to thermalize as quickly as possible to avoid degradation in energy resolution from position dependence to the pulse shapes. Each pixel consists of an absorber and a temperature sensor, both decoupled from the cold bath through a weak thermal link. Each pixel requires a separate readout channel; for instance, with a SQUID (superconducting quantum interference device). For future astronomy missions where thousands to millions of resolution elements are required, having an individual SQUID readout channel for each pixel becomes difficult. One route to attaining these goals is a position-sensitive detector in which a large continuous or pixilated array of x-ray absorbers shares fewer numbers of temperature sensors. A means of discriminating the signals from different absorber positions, however, needs to be built into the device for each sensor. The design concept for the device is such that the shape of the temperature pulse with time depends on the location of the absorber. This inherent position sensitivity of the signal is then analyzed to determine the location of the event precisely, effectively yielding one device with many sub-pixels. With such devices, the total number of electronic channels required to read out a given number of pixels is significantly reduced. PoSMs were developed that consist of four discrete absorbers connected to a single magnetic sensor. The design concept can be extended to more than four absorbers per sensor. The thermal conductance between the sensor and each absorber is different by design and consequently, the pulse shapes are different depending upon which absorber the xrays are received, allowing position discrimination. A magnetic sensor was used in which a paramagnetic Au:Er temperature-sensitive material is located in a weak magnetic field. Deposition of energy from an x-ray photon causes an increase in temperature, which leads to a change of magnetization of the paramagnetic sensor, which is subsequently read out using a low noise dc-SQUID. The PoSM microcalorimeters are fully microfabricated: the Au:Er sensor is located above the meander, with a thin insulation gap in between. For this position-sensitive device, four electroplated absorbers are thermally linked to the sensor via heat links of different thermal conductance. One pixel is identical to that of a single-pixel design, consisting of an overhanging absorber fabricated directly on top of the sensor. It is therefore very strongly thermally coupled to it. The three other absorbers are supported directly on a silicon-nitride membrane. These absorbers are thermally coupled to the sensor via Ti (5 nm)/Au250 nm) metal links. The strength of the links is parameterized by the number of gold squares making up the link. For detector performance, experimentally different pulse-shapes were demonstrated with 6 keV x-rays, which clearly show different rise times for different absorber positions. For energy resolution measurement, the PoSM was operated at 32 mK with an applied field that was generated using a persistent current of 50 mA. Over the four pixels, energy resolution ranges from 4.4 to 4.7 eV were demonstrated.

Bandler, SImon↗

NASA NTRS2009

Integrated Traffic Flow Management Decision Making

A generalized approach is proposed to support integrated traffic flow management decision making studies at both the U.S. national and regional levels. It can consider tradeoffs between alternative optimization and heuristic based models, strategic versus tactical flight controls, and system versus fleet preferences. Preliminary testing was accomplished by implementing thirteen unique traffic flow management models, which included all of the key components of the system and conducting 85, six-hour fast-time simulation experiments. These experiments considered variations in the strategic planning look-ahead times, the replanning intervals, and the types of traffic flow management control strategies. Initial testing indicates that longer strategic planning look-ahead times and re-planning intervals result in steadily decreasing levels of sector congestion for a fixed delay level. This applies when accurate estimates of the air traffic demand, airport capacities and airspace capacities are available. In general, the distribution of the delays amongst the users was found to be most equitable when scheduling flights using a heuristic scheduling algorithm, such as ration-by-distance. On the other hand, equity was the worst when using scheduling algorithms that took into account the number of seats aboard each flight. Though the scheduling algorithms were effective at alleviating sector congestion, the tactical rerouting algorithm was the primary control for avoiding en route weather hazards. Finally, the modeled levels of sector congestion, the number of weather incursions, and the total system delays, were found to be in fair agreement with the values that were operationally observed on both good and bad weather days.

Grabbe, Shon R.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Increasing Efficiency at the NTF by Optimizing Model AoA Positioning

The National Transonic Facility (NTF) at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) is a national resource for aeronautical research and development. The government, military and private industries rely on the capability of this facility for realistic flight data. Reducing the operation costs and keeping the NTF affordable is essential for aeronautics research. The NTF is undertaking an effort to reduce the time between data points during a pitch polar. This reduction is being driven by the operating costs of a cryogenic facility. If the time per data point can be reduced, a substantial cost savings can be realized from a reduction in liquid nitrogen (LN2) consumption. It is known that angle-of-attack (AoA) positioning is the longest lead-time item between points. In January 2005 a test was conducted at the NTF to determine the cause of the long lead-time so that an effort could be made to improve efficiency. The AoA signal at the NTF originates from onboard instrumentation then travels through a number of different systems including the signal conditioner, digital voltmeter, and the data system where the AoA angle is calculated. It is then fed into a closed loop control system that sets the model position. Each process along this path adds to the time per data point affecting the efficiency of the data taking process. Due to the nature of the closed loop feed back AoA control and the signal path, it takes approximately 18 seconds to take one pitch pause point with a typical AoA increment. Options are being investigated to reduce the time delay between points by modifying the signal path. These options include: reduced signal filtering, using analog channels instead of a digital volt meter (DVM), re-routing the signal directly to the AoA control computer and implementing new control algorithms. Each of these has potential to reduce the positioning time and together the savings could be significant. These timesaving efforts are essential but must be weighed against possible loss of data quality. For example, a reduction in filtering can introduce noise into the signal and using analog channels could result in some loss of accuracy. Data quality assessments need to be performed concurrently with timesaving techniques since data quality parameters are essential in maintaining facility integrity. This paper will highlight time saving efforts being undertaken or studied at the NTF. It will outline the instrumentation and computer systems involved in setting of the model pitch attitude then suggest changes to the process and discuss how these system changes would effect the time between data points. It also discusses the issue of data quality and how the potential efficiency changes in the system could affect it. Lastly, it will discuss the possibility of using an open loop control system and give some pros and cons of this method.

Crawford, Bradley L.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Controller Strategies for Managing Air Traffic in High Altitude Arrival Sectors

Substantial increases in the volume of air traffic in the National Airspace System (NAS) are forecast for the next decade, with the number of passengers travelling on U.S. airlines expected to increase by as much as 60%. This increased demand on system capacity will be accompanied by increases in traffic complexity as air traffic service providers routinely accommodate user preferred routing requests. Changes to the NAS to meet these new demands are currently underway, including development of new decision support tools to aid controllers in monitoring and managing air traffic, and increased air-to-air and air-to-ground information exchange. Changes in roles and responsibilities of pilots and controllers in flight path management will accompany these changes in traffic patterns and information technology, however the ultimate responsibility for maintaining aircraft separation will remain with the air traffic controller. A thorough understanding of the methods controllers use to manage air traffic will help ensure that changes to the NAS are implemented in a way that maintains the controller's ability to separate aircraft as the system evolves. This presentation describes the strategies controllers use today to manage arrival traffic in its descent from cruise altitude to the Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) boundary. Factors that increase the complexity of this task include the presence of overflight traffic, varying aircraft performance characteristics, winds aloft, ground speed variations with altitude, the need to merge arrival traffic into a single stream, and, when arrival traffic exceeds airport runway capacity, the added task of metering flow into the TRACON. Because of the limited information available to controllers to manage arrival traffic, their strategies are often driven by the need to reduce the task's complexity, which can result in de-optimized flight paths for individual aircraft (e.g., sub-optimal descent or speed profiles). Understanding these strategies and the cognitive demands that drive them will support a safe transition to a NAS that relies on enhanced technologies. In addition, it could enable system developers to identify opportunities for new automation-based procedures or information displays that could reduce the controller's workload and increase operational efficiency.

Smith, Nancy↗

NASA NTRS2013

Coarse-Grain Bandwidth Estimation Scheme for Large-Scale Network

A large-scale network that supports a large number of users can have an aggregate data rate of hundreds of Mbps at any time. High-fidelity simulation of a large-scale network might be too complicated and memory-intensive for typical commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) tools. Unlike a large commercial wide-area-network (WAN) that shares diverse network resources among diverse users and has a complex topology that requires routing mechanism and flow control, the ground communication links of a space network operate under the assumption of a guaranteed dedicated bandwidth allocation between specific sparse endpoints in a star-like topology. This work solved the network design problem of estimating the bandwidths of a ground network architecture option that offer different service classes to meet the latency requirements of different user data types. In this work, a top-down analysis and simulation approach was created to size the bandwidths of a store-and-forward network for a given network topology, a mission traffic scenario, and a set of data types with different latency requirements. These techniques were used to estimate the WAN bandwidths of the ground links for different architecture options of the proposed Integrated Space Communication and Navigation (SCaN) Network. A new analytical approach, called the "leveling scheme," was developed to model the store-and-forward mechanism of the network data flow. The term "leveling" refers to the spreading of data across a longer time horizon without violating the corresponding latency requirement of the data type. Two versions of the leveling scheme were developed: 1. A straightforward version that simply spreads the data of each data type across the time horizon and doesn't take into account the interactions among data types within a pass, or between data types across overlapping passes at a network node, and is inherently sub-optimal. 2. Two-state Markov leveling scheme that takes into account the second order behavior of the store-and-forward mechanism, and the interactions among data types within a pass. The novelty of this approach lies in the modeling of the store-and-forward mechanism of each network node. The term store-and-forward refers to the data traffic regulation technique in which data is sent to an intermediate network node where they are temporarily stored and sent at a later time to the destination node or to another intermediate node. Store-and-forward can be applied to both space-based networks that have intermittent connectivity, and ground-based networks with deterministic connectivity. For groundbased networks, the store-and-forward mechanism is used to regulate the network data flow and link resource utilization such that the user data types can be delivered to their destination nodes without violating their respective latency requirements.

Cheung, Kar-Ming↗

NASA NTRS1994

Advanced technology for a satellite multichannel demultiplexer/demodulator

Satellite on-board processing is needed to efficiently service multiple users while at the same time minimizing earth station complexity. The processing satellite receives a wideband uplink at 30 GHz and down-converts it to a suitable intermediate frequency. A multichannel demultiplexer then separates the composite signal into discrete channels. Each channel is then demodulated by bulk demodulators, with the baseband signals routed to the downlink processor for retransmission to the receiving earth stations. This type of processing circumvents many of the difficulties associated with traditional bent-pipe repeater satellites. Uplink signal distortion and interference are not retransmitted on the downlink. Downlink power can be allocated in accordance with user needs, independent of uplink transmissions. This allows the uplink users to employ different data rates as well as different modulation and coding schemes. In addition, all downlink users have a common frequency standard and symbol clock on the satellite, which is useful for network synchronization in time division multiple access schemes. The purpose of this program is to demonstrate the concept of an optically implemented multichannel demultiplexer (MCD). A proof-of-concept (POC) model has been developed which has the ability to receive a 40 MHz wide composite signal consisting of up to 1000 40 kHz QPSK modulated channels and perform the demultiplexing process. In addition a set of special test equipment (STE) has been configured to evaluate the performance of the POC model. The optical MCD is realized as an acousto-optic spectrum analyzer utilizing the capability of Bragg cells to perform the required channelization. These Bragg cells receive an optical input from a laser source and an RF input (the signal). The Bragg interaction causes optical output diffractions at angles proportional to the RF input frequency. These discrete diffractions are optically detected and output to individual demodulators for baseband conversion. Optimization of the MCD design was conducted in order to achieve a compromise between two opposing sources of signal degradation: adjacent channel interference and intersymbol interference. The system was also optimized to allow simple, inexpensive ground stations communications with the MCD. These design goals led to the realization of a POC MCD which demonstrates the demultiplexing function with minimal signal degradation. Performance evaluation results using the STE equipment indicate that the dynamic range of the demultiplexer in the presence of adjacent and multiple channel loading is 40 - 50 dB. Measured bit error rate (BER) probabilities varied from the predicted theoretical results by one dB or less. The performance of the proof-of-concept model indicate that the development of a space qualified optically implemented MCD are feasible. The advantages to such an implementation include reduced size, weight and power and increased reliability when compared with electronic approaches. All of these factors are critical to on-board satellite processors. Further optimization can be conducted which trade ground station complexity and MCD performance to achieve desired system results.

Abramovitz, Irwin J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Initial Characterization of Optical Communications with Disruption-Tolerant Network Protocols

Disruption-tolerant networks (DTNs) are groups of network assets connected with a suite of communication protocol technologies designed to mitigate the effects of link delay and disruption. Application of DTN protocols to diverse groups of network resources in multiple sub-networks results in an overlay network-of-networks with autonomous data routing capability. In space environments where delay or disruption is expected, performance of this type of architecture (such as an interplanetary internet) can increase with the inclusion of new communications mediums and techniques. Space-based optical communication links are therefore an excellent building block of space DTN architectures. When compared to traditional radio frequency (RF) communications, optical systems can provide extremely power-efficient and high bandwidth links bridging sub-networks. Because optical links are more susceptible to link disruption and experience the same light-speed delays as RF, optical-enabled DTN architectures can lessen potential drawbacks and maintain the benefits of autonomous optical communications over deep space distances. These environment-driven expectations - link delay and interruption, along with asymmetric data rates - are the purpose of the proof-of-concept experiment outlined herein. In recognizing the potential of these two technologies, we report an initial experiment and characterization of the performance of a DTN-enabled space optical link. The experiment design employs a point-to-point free-space optical link configured to have asymmetric bandwidth. This link connects two networked systems running a DTN protocol implementation designed and written at JPL for use on spacecraft, and further configured for higher bandwidth performance. Comparing baseline data transmission metrics with and without periodic optical link interruptions, the experiment confirmed the DTN protocols' ability to handle real-world unexpected link outages while maintaining capability of reliably delivering data at relatively high rates. Finally, performance characterizations from this data suggest performance optimizations to configuration and protocols for future optical-specific DTN space link scenarios.

Space networking↗

NASA NTRS1997

The effects of programmed administration of human parathyroid hormone fragment (1-34) on bone histomorphometry and serum chemistry in rats

PTH treatment can result in dramatic increases in cancellous bone volume in normal and osteopenic rats. However, this potentially beneficial response is only observed after pulsatile treatment; continuous infusion of PTH leads to hypercalcemia and bone abnormalities. The purpose of these studies was to determine the optimal duration of the PTH pulses. A preliminary study revealed that human PTH-(1-34) (hPTH) is cleared from circulation within 6 h after sc administration of an anabolic dose of the hormone (80 microg/kg). To establish the effects of gradually extending the duration of exposure to hPTH without increasing the daily dose, we programmed implanted Alzet osmotic pumps to deliver the 80 microg/kg x day dose of the hormone during pulses of 1, 2, and 6 h/day, or 40 microg/kg x day continuously. Discontinuous infusion was accomplished by alternate spacing of external tubing with hPTH solution and sesame oil. After 6 days of treatment, we evaluated serum chemistry and bone histomorphometry. As negative and positive controls, groups of rats received pumps that delivered vehicle only and 80 microg/kg x day hPTH by daily sc injection, respectively. Dynamic and static bone histomorphometry revealed that the daily sc injection and 1 h/day infusion dramatically increased osteoblast number and bone formation in the proximal tibial metaphysis, whereas longer infusion resulted in systemic side-effects, including up to a 10% loss in body weight, hypercalcemia, and histological changes in the proximal tibia resembling abnormalities observed in patients with chronic primary hyperparathyroidism, including peritrabecular marrow fibrosis and focal bone resorption. Infusion for as little as 2 h/day resulted in minor weight loss and changes in bone histology that were intermediate between sc and continuous administration. The results demonstrate that the therapeutic interval for hPTH exposure is brief, but that programmed administration of implanted hormone is a feasible alternative to daily injection as a route for administration of the hormone.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2013

NextGen Flight Deck Surface Trajectory-Based Operations (STBO): Contingency Holds

The purpose of this pilot-in-the-loop taxi simulation was to investigate a NextGen Surface Trajectory-Based Operations (STBO) concept called "contingency holds." The contingency-hold concept parses a taxi route into segments, allowing an air traffic control (ATC) surface traffic management (STM) system to hold an aircraft when necessary for safety. Under nominal conditions, if the intersection or active runway crossing is clear, the hold is removed, allowing the aircraft to continue taxiing without slowing, thus improving taxi efficiency, while minimizing the excessive brake use, fuel burn, and emissions associated with stop-and-go taxi. However, when a potential traffic conflict exists, the hold remains in place as a fail-safe mechanism. In this departure operations simulation, the taxi clearance included a required time of arrival (RTA) to a specified intersection. The flight deck was equipped with speed-guidance avionics to aid the pilot in safely meeting the RTA. On two trials, the contingency hold was not released, and pilots were required to stop. On two trials the contingency hold was released 15 sec prior to the RTA, and on two trials the contingency hold was released 30 sec prior to the RTA. When the hold remained in place, all pilots complied with the hold. Results also showed that when the hold was released at 15-sec or 30-sec prior to the RTA, the 30-sec release allowed pilots to maintain nominal taxi speed, thus supporting continuous traffic flow; whereas, the 15-sec release did not. The contingency-hold concept, with at least a 30-sec release, allows pilots to improve taxiing efficiency by reducing braking, slowing, and stopping, but still maintains safety in that no pilots "busted" the clearance holds. Overall, the evidence suggests that the contingency-hold concept is a viable concept for optimizing efficiency while maintaining safety.

NextGen↗

NASA NTRS1991

Multiphase complete exchange on a circuit switched hypercube

On a distributed memory parallel computer, the complete exchange (all-to-all personalized) communication pattern requires each of n processors to send a different block of data to each of the remaining n - 1 processors. This pattern is at the heart of many important algorithms, most notably the matrix transpose. For a circuit switched hypercube of dimension d(n = 2(sup d)), two algorithms for achieving complete exchange are known. These are (1) the Standard Exchange approach that employs d transmissions of size 2(sup d-1) blocks each and is useful for small block sizes, and (2) the Optimal Circuit Switched algorithm that employs 2(sup d) - 1 transmissions of 1 block each and is best for large block sizes. A unified multiphase algorithm is described that includes these two algorithms as special cases. The complete exchange on a hypercube of dimension d and block size m is achieved by carrying out k partial exchange on subcubes of dimension d(sub i) Sigma(sup k)(sub i=1) d(sub i) = d and effective block size m(sub i) = m2(sup d-di). When k = d and all d(sub i) = 1, this corresponds to algorithm (1) above. For the case of k = 1 and d(sub i) = d, this becomes the circuit switched algorithm (2). Changing the subcube dimensions d, varies the effective block size and permits a compromise between the data permutation and block transmission overhead of (1) and the startup overhead of (2). For a hypercube of dimension d, the number of possible combinations of subcubes is p(d), the number of partitions of the integer d. This is an exponential but very slowly growing function and it is feasible over these partitions to discover the best combination for a given message size. The approach was analyzed for, and implemented on, the Intel iPSC-860 circuit switched hypercube. Measurements show good agreement with predictions and demonstrate that the multiphase approach can substantially improve performance for block sizes in the 0 to 160 byte range. This range, which corresponds to 0 to 40 floating point numbers per processor, is commonly encountered in practical numeric applications. The multiphase technique is applicable to all circuit-switched hypercubes that use the common e-cube routing strategy.

Bokhari, Shahid H.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Ames Contrail Simulation Model: Modeling Aviation Induced Contrails and the Computation of Contrail Radiative Forcing Using Air Traffic Data

NASA is developing traffic flow management strategies to reduce the impact of aviation on climate and improve efficiency of aircraft routes in the presence of limited airport and airspace capacity constraints, which are partly due to convective weather and natural calamities. Development of Strategic Traffic Flow Management (STFM) requires models of aircraft emissions and contrails, and models of their effect on climate. There is extensive literature on the modeling of contrails and the Radiative Forcing (RF) associated with contrails. This report captures the latest NASA developments in this research area and describes the integrated modeling, analysis, and software development to support STFM. Aircraft contrails are long, thin and often linear clouds triggered by aircraft engine exhausts in the high-altitude ice-saturated atmosphere. Contrails, similar to that of natural cirrus clouds, can impact global climate by reflecting shortwave radiation and trapping longwave radiation. Recent studies from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have shown that aircraft contrails are estimated to have greater impact on global warming than aircraft CO 2 emissions. The Ames Contrail Simulation Model (ACSM) presented in this report simulates the full life cycle of aircraft contrails, including their formation, dynamic evolution, and dissipation, and calculates the associated RF with actual meteorological and air traffic data. ACSM combines models from previous studies that focus on contrail formation and persistence based on the Schmidt-Appleman theoretical criteria, and it incorporates elements of cloud dynamics, microphysics, and climate modeling found in other surveyed contrail models, while also making adjustment for improved computational efficiency. In addition, ACSM is integrated with NASA's state-of-the-art flight simulation software for rapid assessment of aircraft contrail impacts. Applications include assessments of long-term global climate impact resulting from aviation-induced contrails and the design of optimal contrail-mitigation aircraft operation strategies.

aviation contrails↗

NASA NTRS2000

Practical Considerations of Waste Heat Reuse for a Mars Mission Advanced Life Support System

Energy conservation is a key issue in design optimization of Advanced Life Support Systems (ALSS) for long-term space missions. By considering designs for conservation at the system level, energy saving opportunities arise that would otherwise go unnoticed. This paper builds on a steady-state investigation of system-level waste heat reuse in an ALSS with a low degree of crop growth for a Mars mission. In past studies, such a system has been defined in terms of technology types, hot and cold stream identification and stream energy content. The maximum steady-state potential for power and cooling savings within the system was computed via the Pinch Method. In this paper, several practical issues are considered for achieving a pragmatic estimate of total system savings in terms of equivalent system mass (ESM), rather than savings solely in terms of power and cooling. In this paper, more realistic ESM savings are computed by considering heat transfer inefficiencies during material transfer. An estimate of the steady-state mass, volume and crewtime requirements associated with heat exchange equipment is made by considering heat exchange equipment material type and configuration, stream flow characteristics and associated energy losses during the heat exchange process. Also, previously estimated power and cooling savings are adjusted to reflect the impact of such energy losses. This paper goes one step further than the traditional Pinch Method of considering waste heat reuse in heat exchangers to include ESM savings that occur with direct reuse of a stream. For example, rather than exchanging heat between crop growth lamp cooling air and air going to a clothes dryer, air used to cool crop lamps might be reused directly for clothes drying purposes. When thermodynamically feasible, such an approach may increase ESM savings by minimizing the mass, volume and crewtime requirements associated with stream routing equipment.

Levri, Julie↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Monitoring Airspace Complexity and Determining Contributing Factors

The national airspace has evolved over many years to accommodate increased traffic demand [1] while simultaneously maintaining one of the safest forms of transportation [2], [3]. One of the reasons for this success is the ability of the system and the operators to adapt and accommodate to situations that routinely disrupt optimal operations. These situations may include: adverse weather, delays, early arrivals, equipment outages, and other factors that are outside the operators ability to control. These factors can lead to states where automation is unable to properly handle these issues and therefore air traffic controllers and pilots have to intervene, ultimately increasing communication between operators resulting in higher workload. As controller workload increases to handle sub-optimal operating conditions this can be viewed as an increase in complexity. The reasoning for this is because humans are now required to make tactical decisions in response to external factors, resulting in a departure from the strategic plan where operations would be more efficiently managed. Human operators control airspace complexity under rigid regulations that are constantly changing. The airspace is divided into sectors and the number of aircraft assigned to each controller is limited for safe handling. There has been past work that devised airspace complexity metrics in commercial aviation and related these metrics to controller workload (e.g., [4],[5]). The upper bounds on the system load are pre-determined. Such bounds on complexity make for a safe system, but the system cannot scale and adapt to autonomous, dense, and heterogeneous traffic, including the many types of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) envisioned to be added to the operations. We hypothesize that, as traffic density and heterogeneity grow, and other key metrics change, there will be phase transitions at which the way traffic should be managed changes significantly [6]. We offer a method for in-time detection of contributing factors that lead to phase transitions, characterized by increased complexity. To the best of our knowledge, there is no tool similar to our proposed effort that identifies such contributing factors or precursor patterns. To define the scope we are proposing to measure complexity from the viewpoint of the Terminal Radar Approach Control Facilities (TRACON) controller’s perspective. In particular we are analyzing arrivals into KSFO. With safety as the top concern for airspace operators, it is important to recognize that as density and heterogeneity grow, the focus of the system will change. Times of the day when the airspace has low density and heterogeneity, the flights will follow more efficient paths where the aircraft move on established routes that are more or less directly to the destination. However, when density and heterogeneity increases, the system will begin changing focus to avoiding conflicts and collisions and route the flights in a more flexible way. Higher flexibility requires more communication and coordination between controllers and pilots which the current automation is unable to handle. This paper proposes a novel approach that monitors airspace complexity at multiple scales, uses a Machine Learning-based tool that predicts when operations will transition to a regime of greater complexity, and identifies actions that can reduce the complexity while still maintaining efficient and safe operations. We demonstrate our proposed approach using data from multiple complementary sources. This includes, but is not limited to: historical aircraft surveillance data from NASA’s Sherlock Data Warehouse [7], METAR weather data, and airport configuration data from Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM). The surveillance data flight paths are sampled at a variable sample rate — increasing as the aircraft approaches the airport. This is due to how Sherlock manages flight track stitching between different radar facilities which have different sampling rates. The weather and performance data are logged at defined intervals throughout the day at a courser refresh rate. In addition to the logged data and metrics, we leverage pre-defined Standard Terminal Arrival Routes (STARs) procedures to characterize the path of each flight. Each flight files for one of these routes in the flight plan well before entering the terminal airspace, and approximately follows the route until it leaves the STAR, typically on the final fix of a runway transition. However, most flights do not always fly the full STAR procedure to completion [8], but the majority do adhere to the fixes within the common route of the procedure. Our approach leverages fixes in the common route of each of the STARs to build a reference path to the airport. This allows us to characterize the flight paths in what we are defining as the “maneuvering area” (the airspace between the STAR and before the flight is lined up on the runway’s final approach) to determine how off nominal the flights are to calculate its complexity score. Determining airspace complexity is a concept that does not have a concrete answer. In designing this metric, we consider what increases the workload for the air traffic controllers. Consequently more specialized vectoring maneuvers results in higher workload. Accordingly, we start with a theory: each flight has a direct path it takes from the STAR’s common route to the final approach’s outer marker fix for the flight’s landing runway. It is important to note that the direct path is only used as a reference. If the majority of the flights have a large consistent offset as compared to other routes it does not necessarily mean that those flights have higher complexity. We are merely building a distribution based on this direct path for that particular STAR and runway pair to determine the normal mode of operations for that route. Flights that are in the upper tail of these distributions will result in higher complexity scores and flights that fly in the median will represent the normal mode of operations and therefore will have lower complexity scores. Since flights following each STAR route take different paths to the airport, we have a different distribution for each STAR route and therefore can model these distributions to compute a complexity score from their respective normalized distributions. To evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed airspace complexity metric we will compare against an established approach based on trajectory clustering [9]. This unsupervised learning technique consists of the following steps: (1) identify the general maneuvering areas (waypoints) by performing $\kappa$-means or DBSCAN clustering on locations where aircraft frequently turn based on the surveillance radar track data, (2) map flight trajectories onto sequences of waypoints, and (3) cluster the sequences based on their common subsequences. From a high-level perspective, this baseline model learns nominal operations in the airspace through the sequence of waypoints that are representative of where aircraft change direction and defines deviations from the nominal operations as “complex.” Therefore, more deviations from the nominal operations correspond to higher complexity values. For our validation, we re-implemented this technique and tune model hyper-parameters to correctly detect waypoints for the arrival traffic into the San Francisco bay area. We will compute the complexity measure over a one-year period using our proposed technique as well as the baseline. Our validation will be based on each technique’s ability to detect a set of undesirable outcomes (e.g., go-arounds, holding patterns, average time in the airspace, etc.). Since our current complexity metric is derived from the offset from the direct reference path, it’s important to understand what causes these offsets. In many of the flights with high offset distance, flights performing holding patterns and S turns can be observed. These maneuvering tactics are utilized to add distance between the aircraft and the destination runway to prevent multiple flights from having conflicting arrival times. In order to predict a rise in complexity (or the precursor to complexity), it’s necessary to be able to identify these potential conflicts (which in turn, result in higher offsets). To do this, we define a “representative flight” for each STAR route and runway pair. This flight is approximately the path the flight would take if there was a clear path with no other flights in the airspace — including the time remaining to the airport. We first identify the flights for a given STAR runway pair using the offset to the reference path distributions that fall between the 44-55 percentiles. This yields the flights that conform to the most normal mode of operation. Each of these flights is partitioned based on the percent complete from the entry point into the maneuvering areas from 0\% – 100\% complete. Then for each percent “bin”, we take the median value of the flight’s latitude/longitude coordinates, airspeed, and (non causal) time remaining to the airport to construct a lookup table for each percent complete bin on a given route. As a flight enters the maneuvering area, we can find the estimated arrival time of a flight to the airport by finding the closest point to the representative path’s percent complete bin (relative to the flight’s current position at any snapshot in the airspace) and therefore retrieve the corresponding remaining time left on the “representative path”. We assume that the flight will follow the representative path to completion when deriving these estimates. We can then compare these estimated arrival times against other flights for the same snapshot in time to identify potential conflicts. If more flights are estimated to arrive within a tolerance window than there are runways available, then we have a potential conflict. We can use this derived measure along with other factors expected to add disruption to the operation such as weather and runway configuration changes as an input to machine learning tools to detect precursors that increases in our complexity measure. This novel method will assist in uncovering insights into the contributing factors that lead to increased complexity that may allow for in-time responses to avoid reaching a high complexity state in the airspace.

complexity↗

NASA NTRS2015

Open-Source Conceptual Sizing Models for the Hyperloop Passenger Pod

Hyperloop is a new mode of transportation proposed as an alternative to California's high speed rail project, with the intended benefits of higher performance at lower overall costs. It consists of a passenger pod traveling through a tube under a light vacuum and suspended on air bearings. The pod travels up to transonic speeds resulting in a 35 minute travel time between the intended route from Los Angeles and San Francisco. Of the two variants outlined, the smaller system includes a 1.1 meter tall passenger capsule traveling through a 2.2 meter tube at 700 miles per hour. The passenger pod features water-based heat exchangers as well as an on-board compression system that reduces the aerodynamic drag as it moves through the tube. Although the original proposal looks very promising, it assumes that tube and pod dimensions are independently sizable without fully acknowledging the constraints of the compressor system on the pod geometry. This work focuses on the aerodynamic and thermodynamic interactions between the two largest systems; the tube and the pod. Using open-source toolsets, a new sizing method is developed based on one-dimensional thermodynamic relationships that accounts for the strong interactions between these sub-systems. These additional considerations require a tube nearly twice the size originally considered and limit the maximum pod travel speed to about 620 miles per hour. Although the results indicate that Hyperloop will need to be larger and slightly slower than originally intended, the estimated travel time only increases by approximately five minutes, so the overall performance is not dramatically affected. In addition, the proposed on-board heat exchanger is not an ideal solution to achieve reasonable equilibrium air temperatures within the tube. Removal of this subsystem represents a potential reduction in weight, energy requirements and complexity of the pod. In light of these finding, the core concept still remains a compelling possibility, although additional engineering and economic analyses are markedly necessary before a more complete design can be developed.

design analysis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Machine Learning Approach to Improve Air Traffic Management Initiatives

Collaborating closely with commercial air carriers and related organizations, the Federal Aviation Administration(FAA) regulates air traffic and ensures the safety and efficiency of air operations. Air traffic controllers make strategic decisions, such as delaying, rerouting, or canceling flights, partly based on guidance provided by the FAA’s Air TrafficControl System Command Center (ATCSCC). The guidance includes, among other things, control measures known asTraffic Management Initiatives (TMIs) designed to enhance safety and improve operational efficiency. TMIs play a crucial role in managing the demand and capacity within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS). Two major TMIs that are routinely used (primarily to mitigate the adverse effects of bad weather) are Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) andGround Stops (GSs). In a GDP, flights destined for airports facing thunderstorm activity experience delays at their origin airports. This proactive approach minimizes the risk of routing aircraft through hazardous weather conditions and also replaces (fuel burning) airborne delays with ground delays. In a GS, a temporary restriction is imposed on the departure or arrival of aircraft at a specific airport or within a designated airspace. Although other TMIs (e.g., miles-in-trail) are also implemented as part of (air) traffic flow management in the NAS, the focus of this work is on GDPs and GSs. Since TMIs, by design, lead to flight delays or cancellations, it is crucial to put in place the right set of parameters(e.g., scope and duration of the GDP). For example, when the end time of a GDP extends beyond what is necessary, it imposes unnecessary delays on departing flights. This situation could occur as a result of inaccurate prediction of the(required) duration of the GDP based on the weather forecast. On the other hand, if a GDP ends prematurely before the underlying capacity constraints are resolved at the destination airport, it may result in airborne holding. The delicate balance lies in matching the termination of the GDP precisely with the resolution of capacity constraints, avoiding both the imposition of unnecessary ground delays and the need for airborne holding due to premature program termination.Failing to specify the right parameters for TMIs also leads to flight delays, creating a significant obstacle in managing the increasing traffic volumes causing increased work load for the controllers. To address this issue, we propose the integration of Machine Learning (ML) models in the traffic flow management(TFM) pipeline. In current operations, decisions are made by human experts based on extensive training, historical patterns, available traffic and weather data. Since we have an abundance of data from past events that tell us the likely impact of various TMIs, by ingesting historical data, properly trained ML models can offer valuable insights and aid human decision-making. With the FAA increasingly exploring advanced analytics, ML emerges as a focal point for enhancing TFM within the National Airspace System (NAS). As a first step, this study aims to provide traffic controllers with decision-making support for the issuance and adjustment of TMIs. Data analytics and machine learning have been previously employed to address some of the challenges associated with TMIs. Numerous studies have concentrated on various facets of TMI issuance, exploring factors influencing TMI parameters, including arrival rate, airport capacity, and delay prediction. For example, using weather forecasts, several statistical methods were used to produce probabilistic capacity profiles which in conjunction with deterministic models provided insights into the GDP planning process [1–4]. The downside of using deterministic models is that they rely on fixed inputs and predetermined rules, which lack the ability to account for the inherent uncertainty and variability present in real-world scenarios. In a separate series of studies, researchers aimed to predict the occurrences of GDPs and GSs. The majority of these studies utilized various supervised learning methods, including Decision Trees, Naive Bayes, Support VectorMachines, and Random Forests to analyze the influence of weather conditions and arrival demand on TMI incidents[5–8]. However, these studies primarily focused on predicting the incidence of TMIs without explicitly addressing the scope of TMIs, including their duration and their geographical coverage. Furthermore, the emphasis of these studies was largely on GDPs, given their higher frequency and longer duration when compared to GSs. A limited number of studies focused on predicting the parameters of TMIs, specifically addressing their duration and extent. In one such study focusing on optimizing the TMI parameters at San Francisco International Airport (SFO),the authors utilized a probabilistic forecast of fog [9]. They simulated various capacity scenarios based on the (fog)burn-off forecasts, selecting GDP parameters that minimized airborne and overall ground delays. However, this approach exclusively emphasizes stratus (fog) burn-off as the primary determinant of GDP and GS, neglecting other influential factors like severe weather events, runway closures, lower capacity than traffic demand, and other important variables. Given the complexity of predicting the TMI and determining its scope, we seek a more holistic approach. We aim to consider all significant factors that could impact TMIs and their parameters. What sets this research apart is the fusion of all data sources relevant to the issuance and adjustment of TMIs and it represents the first comprehensive attempt to optimize TMIs in this manner. Since this comprehensive solution involves various aspects, we break down the problem into smaller components and input all parameters into a unified model called the “TMI Adjuster”. Figure 1 shows the overall framework and the list of datasets used in each model. The objective of the TMI Adjuster module is to deliver reliable, consistent and expedited recommendations for the progression, adjustment, and termination of TMIs. The ML solution entails developing a pipeline capable of predicting the necessity of a TMI (e.g., GS or GDP) along with its various parameters. For example, in the case of a GS, this includes the scope of the GS either in terms of distance from the destination airport or based on pre-defined airspace sectors. Here, scope refers to those regions and departing airports that are subject to the GS. In this paper, we concentrate on the issuance of GSs in the three major airports in the New York area — LaGuardia(LGA), John F. Kennedy International (JFK), and Newark Liberty International (EWR). We fuse traffic, weather and other relevant aviation data from years 2017 to 2019 to train and validate the ML models. In particular, we use the following datasets: •Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF): meteorological forecasts specific to each airport, issued four times a day, covering predefined time periods. •TMI data: includes all GSs and GDPs along with their respective parameters. •Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM): includes traffic related data such as aircraft delays, arrival, and departure rates. •Notices to Airmen (NOTAMs): utilized to extract runway closure data and manage interdependencies between terminals in close proximity. •Flight cancellation data •Airspace Flow Programs (AFP): includes information on flight airborne holdings caused by TMIs. The data preprocessing entails transforming ASPM, TMI, AFP, NOTAMs, and weather data into an hourly format and consolidating all datasets by merging them based on date and time as the primary key. The TMI Adjuster framework comprises two parallel models: one dedicated to GS and a second model focused on GDP. As previously mentioned, our specific focus is on the GS model as a multi-classification problem. In this framework, each data point of the GS model input summarizes ten hours of data. Specifically, the data loader for the GS model generates the input and output of the model as follows: at a given time step, the input includes the actual traffic, weather, and TMI data from the two-hour window before the time step, alongside the weather forecast and scheduled traffic for the next 8 hours starting from the time step. Based on this information, the output of the GS model for each time interval consists of three dimensions. The first dimension represents a binary decision on whether there should be a GS in place for the next hour or not. The second dimension is related to the scope of the GS in the United States, and the third dimension is related to the scope of the GS in Canada (i.e., to determine if the GS impacts airports in Canada).One of the challenges with TMI modeling is the sparsity of TMI events, particularly regarding its scope. To address this challenge in the scope of the GS model output, we implement grouping. The GS scope for the US region is defined based on a list of centers that should be included when the GS is in place. With 20 centers in the US, we utilized historical data to group them into 4 categories. In particular, we summarized our historical data in a graph format where nodes represent centers, and link weights are defined based on the co-occurrence of centers in the scope parameter ofTMIs. By identified strongly connected components in this graph, we were able to partition the centers into four groups. We consider two model structures for the GS Model. Firstly, a hierarchical classification model [10], where the human decision-making for a GS is of hierarchical nature. The decision-maker first decides whether there is a need fora GS, and if the answer is yes, determines the scope. A hierarchical classification model organizes the problem into a class hierarchy, typically a tree or a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) structure, and considers the dependency of the decision in the previous step to the next component [10]. Here, we employ the local classifier per level approach, which involves training one multi-class classifier for each level of the class hierarchy. The second structure is the independent structure. In this setting, as the name suggests, we do not consider the dependency of the decisions in the different dimensions of the output of the model. Instead, for each dimension, we train a multi-class classifier independently. Table 1 summarizes GS model statistics for training, validation and testing. The table documents the effect of limiting data to the time steps when there was actually a TMI in place or when a TMI had just terminated. This resulted in a more balanced distribution of the GS class(GS positive class)versus “No GS”(GS negative class), which might help the training process. While JFK and LGA follow very similar distributions, with 40% and 42% GS positive class respectively, EWR has proportionally fewer GS incidents at 28%. Our subsequent phase involves evaluating the performance of both hierarchical structure and independent structure using different state-of-the-art multi-class classifier models such as Random Forest, Decision Trees, K-nearest Neighbors, and Logistic Regression and forecast the duration and scope of the GSs.

Farzan Masrour Shalmani↗