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NASA NTRS2010

GUI to Facilitate Research on Biological Damage from Radiation

A graphical-user-interface (GUI) computer program has been developed to facilitate research on the damage caused by highly energetic particles and photons impinging on living organisms. The program brings together, into one computational workspace, computer codes that have been developed over the years, plus codes that will be developed during the foreseeable future, to address diverse aspects of radiation damage. These include codes that implement radiation-track models, codes for biophysical models of breakage of deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) by radiation, pattern-recognition programs for extracting quantitative information from biological assays, and image-processing programs that aid visualization of DNA breaks. The radiation-track models are based on transport models of interactions of radiation with matter and solution of the Boltzmann transport equation by use of both theoretical and numerical models. The biophysical models of breakage of DNA by radiation include biopolymer coarse-grained and atomistic models of DNA, stochastic- process models of deposition of energy, and Markov-based probabilistic models of placement of double-strand breaks in DNA. The program is designed for use in the NT, 95, 98, 2000, ME, and XP variants of the Windows operating system.

Cucinotta, Frances A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Supportability Concepts for Crewed Deep Space Exploration

Supportability—defined as the set of system characteristics that influence the logistics and support required to enable safe and effective operations—will be a much larger driver of mass, risk, and crew time for future human space exploration due to the more challenging mission context. For Mars, systems must operate in a logistically isolated environment for much longer durations than previous missions, which results in a higher probability of system failure and therefore an increased need for maintenance or contingency options. Mars missions also lack access to quick aborts, which increases the consequences of an unrecoverable system failure. Together, this higher likelihood and consequence of failure results in an increase in supportability-related risk. Supportability analysis is an important part of systems development that helps designers better understand the impacts of system and mission decisions on risk, mass, and crew time. The real-world processes that drive maintenance requirements and other supportability-related characteristics are probabilistic, and therefore they require different conceptual approaches and models than are used for more deterministic aspects of space systems. This paper provides an overview of supportability analysis, addresses key concepts, and provides examples of how supportability analysis can be incorporated into system development. Specifically, system supportability involves stochastic processes, and therefore must be evaluated using probabilistic models. These models can be used to perform sensitivity analysis even if system characteristics are not yet fully defined. Failure rates cannot be measured directly, but tests provide valuable data that can help refine those estimates. Human spaceflight architectures are complex, and exhibit coupled behavior that should be examined with integrated systems analysis that includes an assessment of supportability.

Supportability↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Supportability Concepts for Crewed Deep Space Exploration

Supportability↗

NASA NTRS2021

Astrophysics Milestones for Pulsar Timing Array Gravitational-wave Detection

The NANOGrav Collaboration reported strong Bayesian evidence for a common-spectrum stochastic process in its12.5 yr pulsar timing array data set, with median characteristic strain amplitude at periods of a year of A(yr) = 1.92(+0.75,-0.55) x 10^(-15). However, evidence for the quadrupolar Hellings & Downs interpulsar correlations, which are characteristic of gravitational-wave signals, was not yet significant. We emulate and extend the NANOGrav data set, injecting a wide range of stochastic gravitational-wave background(GWB)signals that encompass a variety of amplitudes and spectral shapes, and quantify three key milestones.(I)Given the amplitude measured in the 12.5 yr analysis and assuming this signal is a GWB, we expect to accumulate robust evidence of an interpulsar-correlated GWB signal with 15–17 yr of data, i.e., an additional 2–5 yr from the 12.5 yr data set.(II)At the initial detection, we expect a fractional uncertainty of 40% on the power-law strain spectrum slope, which is sufficient to distinguish a GWB of supermassive black hole binary origin from some models predicting more exotic origins.(III)Similarly, the measured GWB amplitude will have an uncertainty of 44% upon initial detection, allowing us to arbitrate between some population models of supermassive black hole binaries. In addition, power-law models are distinguishable from those having low-frequency spectral turnovers once 20 yr of data are reached. Even though our study is based on the NANOGrav data, we also derive relations that allow for a generalization to other pulsar timing array data sets. Most notably, by combining the data of individual arrays into the International Pulsar Timing Array, all of these milestones can be reached significantly earlier.

Nihan S. Pol↗

NASA NTRS1982

Computational modeling of multispectral remote sensing systems: Background investigations

A computational model of the deterministic and stochastic process of remote sensing has been developed based upon the results of the investigations presented. The model is used in studying concepts for improving worldwide environment and resource monitoring. A review of various atmospheric radiative transfer models is presented as well as details of the selected model. Functional forms for spectral diffuse reflectance with variability introduced are also presented. A cloud detection algorithm and the stochastic nature of remote sensing data with its implications are considered.

Aherron, R. M.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic renormalization group and gradient flow

A non-perturbative and continuous definition of RG transformations as stochastic processes is proposed, inspired by the observation that the functional RG equations for effective Boltzmann factors may be interpreted as Fokker-Planck equations. The result implies a new approach to Monte Carlo RG that is amenable to lattice simulation. Long-distance correlations of the effective theory are shown to approach gradient-flowed correlations, which are simpler to measure. The Markov property of the stochastic RG transformation implies an RG scaling formula which allows for the measurement of anomalous dimensions when transcribed into gradient flow expectation values.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Stochastic Adaptive Droop Control in Frequency Regulation of Power Systems With Intermittent Generators

Modern power systems (MPSs), including microgrids (MGs), are increasingly incorporating multiple renewable energy sources (RESs) such as wind and solar power, as well as battery storage and controllable loads. While environmentally beneficial, these sources pose challenges for control and management due to their intermittent and stochastic nature, especially in maintaining frequency stability with multiple interconnected generators of varying capacities. Traditional droop control methods are effective in systems with generators that are dispatchable and have fixed generation capacities, but they fall short when applied to systems with RESs, where generation capacities are dynamic and affected by unpredictable environmental conditions. To address these challenges, this paper introduces a novel stochastic adaptive droop control (SADC) method for load frequency control (LFC). The proposed method adapts droop coefficients in real time, based on the measured stochastic data of power generation capacities, enabling more effective frequency regulation in systems with variable and intermittent power generation. Unlike traditional adaptive control methods, which assume constant or slowly-varying system parameters, this approach accounts for stochastic processes by modeling them as Markov chains, enabling robust performance under highly dynamic and unpredictable conditions. The key contributions of this work include the development of real-time droop coefficient adaptation algorithms, derivation of their stability and convergence properties, and the demonstration of the advantages of the method through simulations. Case studies highlight the improved performance of frequency regulation, particularly in addressing the impact of stochastic weather conditions and the benefits of reducing dependence on battery reserves in dealing with intermittency of RESs. Finally, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the theoretical foundations of the method, as well as practical implementation insights for future power systems with high penetration of RESs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2016

Glycoside Hydrolases across Environmental Microbial Communities

Across many environments microbial glycoside hydrolases support the enzymatic processing of carbohydrates, a critical function in many ecosystems. Little is known about how the microbial composition of a community and the potential for carbohydrate processing relate to each other. Here, using 1,934 metagenomic datasets, we linked changes in community composition to variation of potential for carbohydrate processing across environments. We were able to show that each ecosystem-type displays a specific potential for carbohydrate utilization. Most of this potential was associated with just 77 bacterial genera. The GH content in bacterial genera is best described by their taxonomic affiliation. Across metagenomes, fluctuations of the microbial community structure and GH potential for carbohydrate utilization were correlated. Our analysis reveals that both deterministic and stochastic processes contribute to the assembly of complex microbial communities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2012

Final Technical Report "Multiscale Simulation Algorithms for Biochemical Systems"

Biochemical systems are inherently multiscale and stochastic. In microscopic systems formed by living cells, the small numbers of reactant molecules can result in dynamical behavior that is discrete and stochastic rather than continuous and deterministic. An analysis tool that respects these dynamical characteristics is the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA, Gillespie, 1976), a numerical simulation procedure that is essentially exact for chemical systems that are spatially homogeneous or well stirred. Despite recent improvements, as a procedure that simulates every reaction event, the SSA is necessarily inefficient for most realistic problems. There are two main reasons for this, both arising from the multiscale nature of the underlying problem: (1) stiffness, i.e. the presence of multiple timescales, the fastest of which are stable; and (2) the need to include in the simulation both species that are present in relatively small quantities and should be modeled by a discrete stochastic process, and species that are present in larger quantities and are more efficiently modeled by a deterministic differential equation (or at some scale in between). This project has focused on the development of fast and adaptive algorithms, and the fun- damental theory upon which they must be based, for the multiscale simulation of biochemical systems. Areas addressed by this project include: (1) Theoretical and practical foundations for ac- celerated discrete stochastic simulation (tau-leaping); (2) Dealing with stiffness (fast reactions) in an efficient and well-justified manner in discrete stochastic simulation; (3) Development of adaptive multiscale algorithms for spatially homogeneous discrete stochastic simulation; (4) Development of high-performance SSA algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1990

Stochastic Feedforward Control Technique

Class of commanded trajectories modeled as stochastic process. Advanced Transport Operating Systems (ATOPS) research and development program conducted by NASA Langley Research Center aimed at developing capabilities for increases in capacities of airports, safe and accurate flight in adverse weather conditions including shear, winds, avoidance of wake vortexes, and reduced consumption of fuel. Advances in techniques for design of modern controls and increased capabilities of digital flight computers coupled with accurate guidance information from Microwave Landing System (MLS). Stochastic feedforward control technique developed within context of ATOPS program.

Halyo, Nesim↗

DOE OSTI2018

A Nonparametric Bayesian Framework for Short-Term Wind Power Probabilistic Forecast

To improve the energy system resilience and economic efficiency, the wind power as a renewable energy starts to be deeply integrated into smart power grids. However, the wind power forecast uncertainty brings operational challenges. In order to provide a reliable guidance on operational decisions, in this paper, we propose a short-term wind power probabilistic forecast. Specifically, to model the rich dynamic behaviors of underlying physical wind power stochastic process occurring in various meteorological conditions, we first introduce an infinite Markov switching autoregressive model. This nonparametric time series model can capture the important properties in the real world data to improve the prediction accuracy. Then, given finite historical data, the posterior distribution of flexible forecast model can correctly quantify the model estimation uncertainty. Built on it, we develop the posterior predictive distribution to rigorously quantify the overall forecasting uncertainty accounting for both inherent stochastic uncertainty and model estimation error. Furthermore, the proposed approach can provide accurate and reliable short-term wind power probabilistic forecast, which can be used to support smart power grids real-time risk management.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic Thermo-Hydro Modeling and Neural Network Surrogate Development for Thermal Resource Assessment of the Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery

The Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery concept explores the use of abandoned coal mine workings for large-scale thermal energy transport and storage. The system involves injecting waste heat from a supercomputing facility into flooded mine galleries, where groundwater flow can store and transport thermal energy for potential recovery in downgradient district heating and cooling applications. To evaluate the feasibility and performance of the Geobattery under geological and operational uncertainty, we developed a suite of stochastic thermo-hydrological (TH) simulations using Monte Carlo sampling of key uncertain parameters (e.g., permeability, porosity, thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity) and operating conditions (e.g., injection rate, injection temperature). Results identified injection rate and temperature as the most influential parameters governing thermal front propagation, while the geometry of the room-and-pillar structure played a critical role in directing the extent and orientation of thermal advancement. Optimal combinations of material properties for maximizing heat recovery were also determined. To address the high computational cost of coupled-process stochastic modeling, we trained a neural network surrogate model on 24,000 physics-based realizations, achieving an R² > 0.99 and MAE < 0.1 for temperature predictions at monitoring locations. This surrogate enabled an additional 100,000 realizations for global sensitivity analysis and probabilistic thermal resource assessment. The integrated stochastic physics–surrogate modeling framework offers a computationally efficient tool for quantifying uncertainty, identifying key drivers, and informing early-stage design decisions for Geobattery systems.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

A three-point velocity estimation method for two-dimensional coarse-grained imaging data

Time delay and velocity estimation methods have been widely studied subjects in the context of signal processing, with applications in many different fields of physics. The velocity of waves or coherent fluctuation structures is commonly estimated as the distance between two measurement points divided by the time lag that maximizes the cross correlation function between the measured signals, but this is demonstrated to result in erroneous estimates for two spatial dimensions. We present an improved method to accurately estimate both components of the velocity vector, relying on three non-aligned measurement points. We introduce a stochastic process describing the fluctuations as a superposition of uncorrelated pulses moving in two dimensions. Using this model, we show that the three-point velocity estimation method, using time delays calculated through cross correlations, yields the exact velocity components when all pulses have the same velocity. The two- and three-point methods are tested on synthetic data generated from realizations of such processes for which the underlying velocity components are known. The results reveal the superiority of the three-point technique. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of the velocity estimation on gas puff imaging data of strongly intermittent plasma fluctuations due to the radial motion of coherent, blob-like structures at the boundary of the Alcator C-Mod tokamak.

Materials Science↗

NASA NTRS2005

Surface Dust Redistribution on Mars as Observed by the Mars Global Surveyor

The global redistribution of dust by the atmosphere is geologically and climatologically important. Dust deposition and removal at the surface represents ongoing sedimentary geology: a vestige of aeolian processes responsible for the concentration of vast dustsheets and potentially for ancient layered units at various locations on Mars. The varying amount of dust on the surface has also long been hypothesized as a factor in determining whether regional or global dust storms occur in a given year. Indeed, the atmosphere has a very short, sub-seasonal time-scale (or memory) and as such, any inter-annual variability in the climate system that is not simply ascribable to stochastic processes, must involve changing conditions on the surface. An excellent, multi-year dataset is provided by the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the Mars Orbiter Camera Wide Angle imager (MOC-WA). This dataset allows investigation into the degree to which surface dust deposits on Mars really change: over decadal time scales, over the course of the annual cycle, and as a result of global and regional dust storms. The MGS mapping orbit data set extends over almost 3 Martian years at the time of writing. These data sets include one global dust storm and smaller regional storms (one in the first TES mapping year and two in the third).

Szwast, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Probabilistic and deterministic aspects of linear estimation in geodesy

Recent advances in observational techniques related to geodetic work (VLBI, laser ranging) make it imperative that more consideration should be given to modeling problems. Uncertainties in the effect of atmospheric refraction, polar motion and precession-nutation parameters, cannot be dispensed with in the context of centimeter level geodesy. Even physical processes that have generally been previously altogether neglected (station motions) must now be taken into consideration. The problem of modeling functions of time or space, or at least their values at observation points (epochs) is explored. When the nature of the function to be modeled is unknown. The need to include a limited number of terms and to a priori decide upon a specific form may result in a representation which fails to sufficiently approximate the unknown function. An alternative approach of increasing application is the modeling of unknown functions as stochastic processes.

Dermanis, A.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Quantum algorithms for Gibbs sampling and hitting-time estimation

In this paper, we present quantum algorithms for solving two problems regarding stochastic processes. The first algorithm prepares the thermal Gibbs state of a quantum system and runs in time almost linear in √Nβ/Ζ and polynomial in log(1/ϵ), where N is the Hilbert space dimension, β is the inverse temperature, Ζ is the partition function, and ϵ is the desired precision of the output state. Our quantum algorithm exponentially improves the dependence on 1/ϵ and quadratically improves the dependence on β of known quantum algorithms for this problem. The second algorithm estimates the hitting time of a Markov chain. For a sparse stochastic matrix Ρ, it runs in time almost linear in 1/(ϵΔ 3/2 ), where ϵ is the absolute precision in the estimation and Δ is a parameter determined by Ρ, and whose inverse is an upper bound of the hitting time. Our quantum algorithm quadratically improves the dependence on 1/ϵ and 1/Δ of the analog classical algorithm for hitting-time estimation. Finally, both algorithms use tools recently developed in the context of Hamiltonian simulation, spectral gap amplification, and solving linear systems of equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Induction time of a polymorphic transformation

When a solution is supersaturated with respect to multiple polymorphs, the polymorph with the lowest nucleation barrier will form first. If this is a metastable polymorph, it will persist until the induction of nuclei of a lower free-energy phase, marking the onset of a polymorphic transformation. Induction of a more stable polymorph can occur under two conditions: a.) during steady-state nucleation, or b.) after complete crystal growth of the metastable phase. Using the theory of competing stochastic processes, we derive the rare probability of forming a higher-barrier, more-stable polymorph during steady-state nucleation, and use this to explain variations in crystallization products between repeat experiments, which may underlie the phenomenon of "Disappearing Polymorphs". We also derive the induction time of a stable phase from a solution equilibrated with a metastable phase, and show that once the stable phase nucleates, bulk metastable crystals will spontaneously ripen onto nanoscale nuclei or seeds of a more stable phase, thermodynamically driving dissolution-reprecipitation processes. Existing strategies to prolong or shorten the lifetimes of transient metastable phases are reviewed and interpreted within the context of polymorphic induction. Finally, the analyses in this work are conducted from classical nucleation and crystal growth theories, suggesting that paradigms shifts to 'non-classical' nucleation theories may not be necessary to rationalize multistage crystallization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2017

Book Review: Lectures on BSDEs, Stochastic Control, and Stochastic Differential Games with Financial Applications by Rene Carmona

This book is a collection of lecture notes on various topics in the area of stochastic control, stochastic differential games, and financial applications. It makes for an excellent resource for those who already have some familiarity with these topics, although as the author points out, it is not a polished textbook. If the reader is not well versed in stochastic processes and control theory this book may not be the best introduction since prerequisite knowledge of these topics is a must before diving into the material. On the other hand, the book contains a very useful section of notes at the end of each chapter describing references that can be used to get up to speed and to put the material into the wider context. In this respect, it can be used as a guide for those interested in navigating the various books and papers that are drawn upon. The book is divided into three parts: Stochastic Calculus Preliminaries, Stochastic Control, and Stochastic Differential Games. The underlying theory is developed in a systematic manner and many financial applications are scattered throughout the book.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗