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At least 307 records · Page 17
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NASA NTRS1992

A new look at Wolf sunspot numbers in the late 1700's

A procedure is described for the derivation of the Wolf sunspot number from the number of sunspot groups, and the approach is used to obtain a 'Group Wolf number'. It is shown that this technique is superior to the classical method of determining the Wolf number, because corrections for differences due to the observers' bias are reduced and self-consistent long-term time series can be developed; the level of solar activity can be calculated with an accuracy of +/- 5 percent. The procedure was used to determine Wolf sunspot numbers for the solar cycles 1, 2, and 3 (1761-1777). It is found that the standard Wolf numbers are nearly homogeneous with sunspot numbers measured from 1875 to 1976, but the peak of solar cycle 2 is too low by 30 percent.

Hoyt, Douglas V.↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Statistical Test of Uniformity in Solar Cycle Indices

Several indices are used to characterize the solar activity cycle. Key among these are: the International Sunspot Number, the Group Sunspot Number, Sunspot Area, and 10.7 cm Radio Flux. A valuable aspect of these indices is the length of the record -- many decades and many (different) 11-year cycles. However, this valuable length-of-record attribute has an inherent problem in that it requires many different observers and observing systems. This can lead to non-uniformity in the datasets and subsequent erroneous conclusions about solar cycle behavior. The sunspot numbers are obtained by counting sunspot groups and individual sunspots on a daily basis. This suggests that the day-to-day and month-to-month variations in these numbers should follow Poisson Statistics and be proportional to the square-root of the sunspot numbers themselves. Examining the historical records of these indices indicates that this is indeed the case - even with Sunspot Area and 10.7 cm Radio Flux. The ratios of the RMS variations to the square-root of the indices themselves are relatively constant with little variation over the phase of each solar cycle or from small to large solar cycles. There are, however, important step-like changes in these ratios associated with changes in observer and/or observer system. Here we show how these variations can be used to construct more uniform datasets.

Hathaway David H.↗
NASA NTRS1992

The solar cycle; Proceedings of the National Solar Observatory/Sacramento Peak 12th Summer Workshop, Sunspot, NM, Oct. 15-18, 1991

Attention is given to a flux-transport model, the effect of fractal distribution on the evolution of solar surface magnetic fields, active nests on the sun, magnetic flux transport in solar active regions, recent advances in stellar cycle research, magnetic intermittency on the sun, a search for existence of large-scale motions on the sun, and new solar cycle data from the NASA/NSO spectromagnetograph. Attention is also given to the solar cycle variation of coronal temperature during cycle 22, the distribution of the north-south asymmetry for the various activity cycles, solar luminosity variation, a two-parameter model of total solar irradiance variation over the solar cycle, the origin of the solar cycle, nonlinear feedbacks in the solar dynamo, and long-term dynamics of the solar cycle.

Harvey, Karen L.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Solar Cycle 24 and the Solar Dynamo

We will discuss the polar field precursor method for solar activity prediction, which predicts cycle 24 will be significantly lower than recent activity cycles, and some new ideas rejuvenating Babcock's shallow surface dynamo. The polar field precursor method is based on Babcock and Leighton's dynamo models wherein the polar field at solar minimum plays a major role in generating the next cycle's toroidal field and sunspots. Thus, by examining the polar fields of the Sun near solar minimum, a forecast for the next cycle's activity is obtained. With the current low value for the Sun's polar fields, this method predicts solar cycle 24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 135 plus or minus 35 (2 sigma), in the 2012-2013 timeframe (equivalent to smoothed Rz near 80 plus or minus 35 [2 sigma]). One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. We discuss unusual behavior in the Sun's polar fields that support this prediction. Normally, the solar precursor method is consistent with the geomagnetic precursor method, wherein geomagnetic variations are thought to be a good measure of the Sun's polar field strength. Because of the unusual polar field, the Earth does not appear to be currently bathed in the Sun's extended polar field (the interplanetary field), hence negating the primal cause behind the geomagnetic precursor technique. We also discuss how percolation may support Babcock's original shallow solar dynamo. In this process ephemeral regions from the solar magnetic carpet, guided by shallow surface fields, may collect to form pores and sunspots.

Pesnell, W. D.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Dynamo theory prediction of solar activity

The dynamo theory technique to predict decadal time scale solar activity variations is introduced. The technique was developed following puzzling correlations involved with geomagnetic precursors of solar activity. Based upon this, a dynamo theory method was developed to predict solar activity. The method was used successfully in solar cycle 21 by Schatten, Scherrer, Svalgaard, and Wilcox, after testing with 8 prior solar cycles. Schatten and Sofia used the technique to predict an exceptionally large cycle, peaking early (in 1990) with a sunspot value near 170, likely the second largest on record. Sunspot numbers are increasing, suggesting that: (1) a large cycle is developing, and (2) that the cycle may even surpass the largest cycle (19). A Sporer Butterfly method shows that the cycle can now be expected to peak in the latter half of 1989, consistent with an amplitude comparable to the value predicted near the last solar minimum.

Schatten, Kenneth H.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Torsional oscillations of the sun

The sun's differential rotation has a cyclic pattern of change that is tightly correlated with the sunspot, or magnetic activity, cycle. This pattern can be described as a torsional oscillation, in which the solar rotation is periodically sped up or slowed down in certain zones of latitude while elsewhere the rotation remains essentially steady. The zones of anomalous rotation move on the sun in wavelike fashion, keeping pace with and flanking the zones of magnetic activity. It is uncertain whether this torsional oscillation is a globally coherent ringing of the sun or whether it is a local pattern caused by and causing local changes in the magnetic fields. In either case, it may be an important link in the connection between the rotation and the cycle that is widely believed to exist but is not yet understood.

Snodgrass, H. B.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Astronomical interferometry on the Moon

Optical interferometric arrays are particularly attractive candidates for a manned lunar base. A permanent lunar can provide support for a variety of astronomical investigations. An optical interferometric array, perhaps of the general form of the VLA but designed for optical instead of radio wavelengths, would lead to a qualitative advance in the understanding of the universe. A wide variety of scientific problems could be addressed by such an instrument. The stellar analogs of the solar cycle, the behavior of sunspots on other stars, the magnetic field configurations of other stars, and the behavior of dynamic plasma phenomena such as flares and winds are examples of star related problems that ultimately would lead to both increased understanding of our Sun and fundamental knowledge of the manner in which stars form and evolve.

Burke, Bernard F.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Confirmation of solar cycle-dependent intermediate-degree p-mode frequency shifts

Results of intercomparisons of seven different sets of frequencies of intermediate-degree p-modes obtained at several different locations between 1981 and 1989 are presented. It is shown that the frequency shifts exhibited by all of these intermediate-degree p-modes are consistent with the intermediate-degree frequency shifts presented by Libbrecht and Woodward (1990) and also with the low-degree frequency shifts presented by Elsworth et al. (1990). It is also shown that these frequency shifts correlate with solar cycle-dependent changes in sunspot number, area, and irradiance. Unbinned and binned differences between 1984 Mount Wilson Observatory and revised 1981 South Pole frequencies are illustrated.

Rhodes, Edward J., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2000

The Fall 2000 and Fall 2001 SOHO-Ulysses Quadratures

SOHO-Ulysses quadrature occurs when the SOHO-Sun-Ulysses included angle is 90 degrees. It is only at such times that the same plasma leaving the Sun in the direction of Ulysses can first be remotely analyzed with SOHO instruments and then later be sampled in situ by Ulysses instruments. The quadratures in December 2000 and 2001 are of special significance because Ulysses will be near the south and north heliographic poles, respectively, and the solar cycle will be near sunspot maximum. Quadrature geometry is sometimes confusing and observations are influenced by solar rotation. The Fall 2000 and 2001 quadratures are more complex than usual because Ulysses is not in a true polar orbit and the orbital speed of Ulysses about the Sun is becoming comparable to the speed of SOHO about the Sun. In 2000 Ulysses will always be slightly behind the pole but will appear to hang over the pole for over two months because it is moving around the Sun in the same direction as SOHO. In 20001, Ulysses will be slightly in front of the pole so that its footpoint will be directly observable. Detailed plots will be shown of the relative positions of SOHO and Ulysses will their relative positions. In neither case is true quadrature actually achieved, but this works to the observers advantage in 2001.

Suess, S. T.↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Fall 2000 and Fall 2001 SOHO-Ulysses Quadratures

SOHO-Ulysses quadrature occurs when the SOHO-Sun-Ulysses included angle is 90 degrees. It is only at such times that the same plasma leaving the Sun in the direction of Ulysses can first be remotely analyzed with SOHO instruments and then later be sampled in situ by Ulysses instruments. The quadratures in December 2000 and 2001 are of special significance because Ulysses will be near the south and north heliographic poles, respectively, and the solar cycle will be near sunspot maximum. Quadrature geometry is sometimes confusing and observations are influenced by solar rotation. The Fall 2000 and 2001 quadratures are more complex than usual because Ulysses is not in a true polar orbit and the orbital speed of Ulysses about the Sun is becoming comparable to the speed of SOHO about the Sun. In 2000 Ulysses will always be slightly behind the pole but will appear to hang over the pole for over two months because it is moving around the Sun in the same direction as SOHO. In 2001 Ulysses will be slightly in front of the pole so that its footpoint will be directly observable. Detailed plots will be shown of the relative positions of SOHO and Ulysses will their relative positions. In neither case is true quadrature actually achieved, but this works to the observers advantage in 2001.

Suess, S. T.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of Solar Cycle Variation on Space Weather

We report on the solar cycle variation of solar eruptions and their space weather consequences during solar cycles 23-25. While the solar activity cycle is primarily expressed in terms of the Sunspot number (SSN), coronal mass ejections (CMEs) provide a different perspective on the solar cycle owing to their origin in sunspot regions as well as other non-spot magnetic regions such as quiescent filament regions. Weak solar activity observed in solar cycle 24 has been found to result in a weak heliospheric state, which backreacted on CME properties. The cycle resulted in mild space weather in that the number of large solar energetic particle events and geomagnetic storms decreased significantly. The occurrence of intense geomagnetic storms and high-energy SEP events was drastically reduced, much more than the reduction in the solar activity. The current status of solar cycle 25 indicates that it will be similar to solar cycle 24 or slightly stronger, which means a mild space weather in this cycle as well. We illustrate this using the data obtained during the rise phase of solar cycle 25 in comparison with the corresponding phases in cycles 23 and 24.

Nat Gopalswamy↗
NASA NTRS1990

Period and phase of the 88-year solar cycle and the Maunder minimum - Evidence for a chaotic sun

The problem of whether the solar dynamo is quasi-periodic or chaotic is addressed by examining 1500 years of sunspot, geomagnetic, and auroral activity cycles. Sub-harmonics were found of the fundamental solar cycle period during the years preceding the Maunder minimum and loss of phase of the subharmonic on emergence from it. These phenomena are indicative of chaos. They indicate that the solar dynamo is chaotic and is operating in a region close to the transition between period doubling and chaos. Since Maunder-type minima reoccur irregularly for millennia, it appears that the sun remains close to this transition to and from chaos. This is postulated to be a universal characteristic of solar type stars caused by feedback in the dynamo number.

Feynman, J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Maunder's Butterfly Diagram in the 21st Century

E. Walter Maunder created his first "Butterfly Diagram" showing the equatorward drift of the sunspot latitudes over the course of each of two solar cycles in 1903. This diagram was constructed from data obtained through the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) starting in 1874. The RGO continued to acquire data up until 1976. Fortunately, the US Air Force (USAF) and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have continued to acquire similar data since that time. This combined RGO/USAF/NOAA dataset on sunspot group positions and areas now extends virtually unbroken from the 19th century to the 21st century. The data represented in the Butterfly Diagram contain a wealth of information about solar activity and the solar cycle. Solar activity (as represented by the sunspots) appears at mid-latitudes at the start of each cycle. The bands of activity spread in each hemisphere and then drift toward the equator as the cycle progresses. Although the equator itself tends to be avoided, the spread of activity reaches the equator at about the time of cycle maximum. The cycles overlap at minimum with old cycle spots appearing near the equator while new cycle spots emerge in the mid-latitudes. Large amplitude cycles tend to have activity starting at higher latitudes with the activity spreading to higher latitudes as well. Large amplitude cycles also tend to be preceded by earlier cycles with faster drift rates. These drift rates may be tied to the Sun s meridional circulation - a component in many dynamo theories for the origin of the sunspot cycle. The Butterfly Diagram must be reproduced in any successful dynamo model for the Sun.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Sunspot index infers a small relict magnetic field in the sun's core

Inferences from the asymmetry in time of the solar sunspot number, taken over many cycles, yields evidence for the relict magnetic field in the solar core which Cowling (1945) suggested would not decay, over the solar system's lifetime, given sufficiently high bulk electrical conductivity. Whether such a relict field is present can be ascertained either by searching for the presence of a 22-year line quintet in the Fourier spectrum of the sunspot index or by processing the time sequence in order to highlight an offset. Since the solar cycle is unstable to frequency drifts, the presence of frequency modulation can lead to a spurious relict field signal.

Sonett, C. P.↗
NASA NTRS1987

On 'Bimodality of the solar cycle' and the duration of cycle 21

Data from the well-observed cycles 8-20 are used to study the duration of cycle 21 and the bimodality of the solar cycle which is clearly seen in the scatter diagrams of descent versus ascent durations. A linear fit for long-period cycles suggests that cycle 21 will have a 141-month cycle duration. Like cycle 11, cycle 21 is found to occur on the downward envelope of the sunspot number curve, yet to be associated with an upward first difference in amplitude. Similarities between the two cycles suggest that cycle 21 may also have an extended tail of sustained, low smoothed sunspot number, with the cycle 22 minimum occurring either in late 1987 or early 1988.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1986

An apparent 'even-odd' cycle distribution in Mt. Wilson 'numbers of spots' data

Mt. Wilson 'numbers of spots' data (Howard et al., 1984) appear to be distributed according to 'even-odd' cycle numbering. Linear fits of annual 'numbers of spots' versus annual sunspot number for even- and odd-numbered cycles have slopes which are statistically different at the 5 percent level of significance. The existence of an 'even-odd' split in Mt. Wilson 'numbers of spots' data may be due either to a real difference in even- and odd-numbered cycles on the sun or to a difference in weather at Mt. Wilson during even- and odd-numbered cycles, or both. For cycle 22, an even-numbered cycle, the peak 'numbers of spots' is estimated to be near 2600.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Solar plages and the interpretation of stellar Ca 2 H and K line variations in late type dwarfs

Approximately a dozen late type dwarf stars have been observed by Wilson (1978) to undergo cyclic variability in Ca II H and K line emission which seems analogous to the solar activity cycle. What might be learned about these stars from solar analogies? The Ca II K index is estimated variation of the Sun viewed as a star, and compared with the observed range of Wilson's stellar observations. Results indicate trends of increasing relative variation H-K(max)/H-K(min) with later spectral type, due to decreasing dilutional contribution of residual photospheric flux to a 1 A band at line center, and of increasing relative variation with decreasing relative time of rise to maximum tau rise/tau reminiscent of the observed solar correlation of a quick rise to sunspot maximum with a strong cycle.

Cook, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Magnetic modulation of solar luminosity by photospheric activity

The behavior of slow changes in solar irradiance S is studied using measurements obtained with radiometers on the SMM and Nimbus 7 spacecraft. The general downtrend in the radiometer readings is examined by removing the influence of sunspot blocking and comparing the residual irradiance variations with changes in facular and network radiation as indicated by the He I 10830 and CaK indices. The time-integrated sunspot and facular contributions to irradiance variation and its implications for active region energetics are considered. The magnetic activity modulation of S over solar cycle 21 from daily data on sunspot blocking and the He I index are simulated, and this simulated irradiance variation is compared to radiometry since 1978. Other recent evidence for an irradiance modulation by magnetic activity is discussed.

Foukal, P.↗