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At least 307 records · Page 17

Dynamic Method for Identifying Collected Sample Mass

G-Sample is designed for sample collection missions to identify the presence and quantity of sample material gathered by spacecraft equipped with end effectors. The software method uses a maximum-likelihood estimator to identify the collected sample's mass based on onboard force-sensor measurements, thruster firings, and a dynamics model of the spacecraft. This makes sample mass identification a computation rather than a process requiring additional hardware. Simulation examples of G-Sample are provided for spacecraft model configurations with a sample collection device mounted on the end of an extended boom. In the absence of thrust knowledge errors, the results indicate that G-Sample can identify the amount of collected sample mass to within 10 grams (with 95-percent confidence) by using a force sensor with a noise and quantization floor of 50 micrometers. These results hold even in the presence of realistic parametric uncertainty in actual spacecraft inertia, center-of-mass offset, and first flexibility modes. Thrust profile knowledge is shown to be a dominant sensitivity for G-Sample, entering in a nearly one-to-one relationship with the final mass estimation error. This means thrust profiles should be well characterized with onboard accelerometers prior to sample collection. An overall sample-mass estimation error budget has been developed to approximate the effect of model uncertainty, sensor noise, data rate, and thrust profile error on the expected estimate of collected sample mass.

Carson, John↗

Measurement uncertainty and feasibility study of a flush airdata system for a hypersonic flight experiment

Presented is a feasibility and error analysis for a hypersonic flush airdata system on a hypersonic flight experiment (HYFLITE). HYFLITE heating loads make intrusive airdata measurement impractical. Although this analysis is specifically for the HYFLITE vehicle and trajectory, the problems analyzed are generally applicable to hypersonic vehicles. A layout of the flush-port matrix is shown. Surface pressures are related airdata parameters using a simple aerodynamic model. The model is linearized using small perturbations and inverted using nonlinear least-squares. Effects of various error sources on the overall uncertainty are evaluated using an error simulation. Error sources modeled include boundarylayer/viscous interactions, pneumatic lag, thermal transpiration in the sensor pressure tubing, misalignment in the matrix layout, thermal warping of the vehicle nose, sampling resolution, and transducer error. Using simulated pressure data for input to the estimation algorithm, effects caused by various error sources are analyzed by comparing estimator outputs with the original trajectory. To obtain ensemble averages the simulation is run repeatedly and output statistics are compiled. Output errors resulting from the various error sources are presented as a function of Mach number. Final uncertainties with all modeled error sources included are presented as a function of Mach number.

Whitmore, Stephen A.↗

Machine Learning Methods for Estimating Propeller Source Noise Spheres

In this work, several neural network function approximations are compared for inter- polating, storing, and sampling acoustic source spheres with applications to propeller noise estimation. These methods are compared using an acoustic model of the three bladed GL-10 propeller at different flight conditions, with training data generated using NASA’s ANOPP-PAS module. The source spheres used to train the networks capture the tonal propeller noise due to both the blade thickness and loading. This tonal noise prediction method allows the vehicle noise to be estimated for auralization and acoustic control. Three radial basis function neural network architectures are compared in this work. The first two networks directly estimate the parameters of the source sphere at different flight conditions but differ in the number of layers used. The third network estimates the parameters of the source sphere using a weighted combination of spherical basis functions. These networks are trained on numerically generated source spheres, with operating points given in terms of the propeller rotation rate, freestream speed, and propeller angle of attack. The performance of the neural network is determined using a validation dataset of withheld data points. This performance is quantified in terms of the approximation error, training time, and sample time. The third network, which estimates the weights of the spherical basis functions, performs the best in both average and maximum approximation errors in all cases. This network’s worst case performance is 5.6 % relative dif- ference of a model parameter associated with acoustic pressure. The direct estimation network with a single layer has the worst approximation error in all cases. Additionally, the spherically defined network has the slowest sample time at 0.05 seconds per thousand points. Both direct estimation methods produce a thousand sample points in approximately 0.001 seconds.

Acoustics↗

Estimations of ABL fluxes and other turbulence parameters from Doppler lidar data

Techniques for extraction boundary layer parameters from measurements of a short-pulse CO2 Doppler lidar are described. The measurements are those collected during the First International Satellites Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) Field Experiment (FIFE). By continuously operating the lidar for about an hour, stable statistics of the radial velocities can be extracted. Assuming that the turbulence is horizontally homogeneous, the mean wind, its standard deviations, and the momentum fluxes were estimated. Spectral analysis of the radial velocities is also performed from which, by examining the amplitude of the power spectrum at the inertial range, the kinetic energy dissipation was deduced. Finally, using the statistical form of the Navier-Stokes equations, the surface heat flux is derived as the residual balance between the vertical gradient of the third moment of the vertical velocity and the kinetic energy dissipation. Combining many measurements would normally reduce the error provided that, it is unbiased and uncorrelated. The nature of some of the algorithms however, is such that, biased and correlated errors may be generated even though the raw measurements are not. Data processing procedures were developed that eliminate bias and minimize error correlation. Once bias and error correlations are accounted for, the large sample size is shown to reduce the errors substantially. The principal features of the derived turbulence statistics for two case studied are presented.

Gal-Chen, Tzvi↗

Pressing the Approach: A NASA Study of 19 Recent Accidents Yields a New Perspective on Pilot Error

This article begins with a review of two sample airplane accidents that were caused by pilot error. The analysis of these and 17 other accidents suggested that almost all experienced pilot operating in the same environment in which the accident crews were operating and knowing only what the accident crews knew at each moment of the flight, would be vulnerable to making a similar decision and similar errors. Whether a particular crew in a given situation makes errors depends on somewhat random interaction of factors. Two themes that seem to be prevalent in these cases are: Plan Continuation Bias, and Snowballing Workload.

Berman, Benjamin A.↗

Emulator-Based Bayesian Calibration of the CISNET Colorectal Cancer Models

Purpose To calibrate Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET)'s SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN simulation models of the natural history colorectal cancer (CRC) with an emulator-based Bayesian algorithm and internally validate the model-predicted outcomes to calibration targets.Methods We used Latin hypercube sampling to sample up to 50,000 parameter sets for each CISNET-CRC model and generated the corresponding outputs. We trained multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (ANNs) as emulators using the input and output samples for each CISNET-CRC model. We selected ANN structures with corresponding hyperparameters (i.e., number of hidden layers, nodes, activation functions, epochs, and optimizer) that minimize the predicted mean square error on the validation sample. We implemented the ANN emulators in a probabilistic programming language and calibrated the input parameters with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo-based algorithms to obtain the joint posterior distributions of the CISNET-CRC models' parameters. We internally validated each calibrated emulator by comparing the model-predicted posterior outputs against the calibration targets.Results The optimal ANN for SimCRC had 4 hidden layers and 360 hidden nodes, MISCAN-Colon had 4 hidden layers and 114 hidden nodes, and CRC-SPIN had 1 hidden layer and 140 hidden nodes. The total time for training and calibrating the emulators was 7.3, 4.0, and 0.66 h for SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN, respectively. The mean of the model-predicted outputs fell within the 95% confidence intervals of the calibration targets in 98 of 110 for SimCRC, 65 of 93 for MISCAN, and 31 of 41 targets for CRC-SPIN.Conclusions Using ANN emulators is a practical solution to reduce the computational burden and complexity for Bayesian calibration of individual-level simulation models used for policy analysis, such as the CISNET CRC models. In this work, we present a step-by-step guide to constructing emulators for calibrating 3 realistic CRC individual-level models using a Bayesian approach.

artificial neural networks↗

A Dynamic Amplitude-Correcting Gradient Estimation Technique to Align X-ray Focusing Optics

High-brightness X-rays, as produced at synchrotrons and X-ray free electron laser (XFEL) facilities, are used to characterize materials in a variety of scientific experiments. In most cases, effective use of the high-energy light requires precisely-aligned focusing optics; one example being a compound refractive lens (CRL). To align a CRL, the position and rotation must be optimized along four axes. In practice, this is a labor-intensive, time-consuming manual process that can monopolize scarce experimental time at the necessary X-ray facilities. Models of the expected Xray transmission function suggest that this task can be automated; however, the temporally-varying intensity at X-ray free electron laser facilities preclude the direct use of standard implementations of optimization solvers such as steepest descent algorithms. In this paper, we propose a novel technique to estimate the gradient of noisy functions with temporally-varying amplitudes. We construct this dynamicamplitude correction by systematically sampling a fixed central location within the standard finite difference stencil, accounting for the observed changes in time, and normalizing the difference quotients against those fluctuations. In addition to a rigorous error analysis of the sampling technique, we demonstrate its efficacy in stochastic descent optimization methods. Further, we demonstrate how this approach may be implemented to optimize X-ray focusing optics at synchrotrons or XFEL facilities

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Estimating Rain Rates from Tipping-Bucket Rain Gauge Measurements

This paper describes the cubic spline based operational system for the generation of the TRMM one-minute rain rate product 2A-56 from Tipping Bucket (TB) gauge measurements. Methodological issues associated with applying the cubic spline to the TB gauge rain rate estimation are closely examined. A simulated TB gauge from a Joss-Waldvogel (JW) disdrometer is employed to evaluate effects of time scales and rain event definitions on errors of the rain rate estimation. The comparison between rain rates measured from the JW disdrometer and those estimated from the simulated TB gauge shows good overall agreement; however, the TB gauge suffers sampling problems, resulting in errors in the rain rate estimation. These errors are very sensitive to the time scale of rain rates. One-minute rain rates suffer substantial errors, especially at low rain rates. When one minute rain rates are averaged to 4-7 minute or longer time scales, the errors dramatically reduce. The rain event duration is very sensitive to the event definition but the event rain total is rather insensitive, provided that the events with less than 1 millimeter rain totals are excluded. Estimated lower rain rates are sensitive to the event definition whereas the higher rates are not. The median relative absolute errors are about 22% and 32% for 1-minute TB rain rates higher and lower than 3 mm per hour, respectively. These errors decrease to 5% and 14% when TB rain rates are used at 7-minute scale. The radar reflectivity-rainrate (Ze-R) distributions drawn from large amount of 7-minute TB rain rates and radar reflectivity data are mostly insensitive to the event definition.

Wang, Jianxin↗

Multilevel Monte Carlo Estimation of Unbiased Expectation via Sample Reuse and the Low Variance Estimation of Asymptotic Rates

A new variant of the multilevel Monte Carlo estimator [5, 3, 9, 12] is presented for the estimation of expectation statistics that utilizes sample reuse in specified levels, explicitly removes approximation error bias associated with numerically computed output quantities of interest that have an asymptotic limit behavior, and permits a low variance estimate of the asymptotic rate of convergence to that limit. In addition, it is shown that this new multilevel Monte Carlo variant can yield a computational cost savings. A review of Monte Carlo and multilevel Monte Carlo estimators is presented that includes analysis of expected value, expected mean squared error, and the calculation of optimized multilevel sample size parameters. The multilevel Monte Carlo estimator produces estimates of expectation for numerically approximated output quantities of interest that are biased by approximation error. When the quantity of interest can be modeled as the asymptotic limit of numerically approximated output quantities of interest, it is theoretically possible to remove this approximation error bias in the multilevel Monte Carlo estimator. In actual implementations, however, this procedure is unreliable due to statistical variability and inaccuracy in estimating the needed asymptotic limit. Analysis and numerical experiment show that the proposed variant of the multilevel Monte Carlo method greatly reduces (in some cases eliminates) the statistical variability in this limit estimation.

Barth, Timothy↗

Implementation of an Experimental Setup Based on the Three-Omega Method for Thermal Conductivity Measurements of Molten Salts

Molten salt reactors (MSRs) are one of the most promising next-generation nuclear reactor designs which use molten salts as the fuel and coolant. To design, model, predict, license, and operate MSRs, the behavior of the fuel and coolant must be understood as a function of temperature and irradiation, i.e., burnup. Of particular importance and complexity is the reliable and reproducible measurement of thermal conductivity of molten salts at high temperatures (> 500 °C). Thermal conductivity provides information on the rate at which heat passes through a specified material and is dependent on chemical composition. Currently, in the national laboratory complex, several methods for measuring thermal conductivity on molten salt systems are under development, however, to date, consistent data have not been produced. Typically, thermal conductivity measurements of high-temperature melts have been conducted by using the Transient Hot Wire (THW) method where thermal conductivity is determined by the change in temperature over time at a certain distance from a heating wire. Another time-dependent technique is the laser flash method, commonly used for solid samples. Laser flash requires prior measurements of density and heat capacity to calculate the thermal conductivity of the sample, introducing additional measurement errors. Steady state and time-dependent measurements such as THW and laser flash have errors from convection and ambient temperature fluctuations (heat radiation). In order to produce high fidelity thermal conductivity data, a measurement technique needs to be developed that will reduce the effect of convection at high temperatures by measuring in a very fast time window. In addition, to measure on actinide and irradiated salts the sample size should be small. Therefore, this project aims to develop a frequency-domain technique based on the three-omega (3?) method, previously proven to work on solids, nanofluids and low temperature solar salts (25 to 250 °C). If the 3?-device can be designed with materials that can withstand high temperatures (>500 °C) and can be configured to reduce errors due to convection, then it would prove to be a valuable technique for ensuring thermal conductivity on molten salt systems needed for MSR development. For this proposal, the 3? instrument will be designed, assembled, and tested on non-radioactive salts before being used on actinide bearing salts. In addition, a thermal model will be developed to determine the thermal conductivity of the sample from the measured thermal oscillation of the sensor. Because 3? is a direct method that requires a small volume of sample and works in a very fast time window, it will aid in suppressing the interference due to convection which is ideal when working with high temperature liquid samples.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Modern sampled-data control theory: Design of the Large Space Telescope

This investigation was undertaken to determine the effect of varying the sampling period on the dynamic response of the sampled-data Large Space Telescope (LST) system. A range of sampling periods was recommended based on the criterion that self-sustained oscillations are to be avoided in the LST system. The step responses of the LST system were then investigated when various sampling periods are used. For small sampling periods, the dynamic behavior of the sampled-data system is very similar to that of the continuous-data system. When T is large (but less than 0.25 sec) the overshoot of the step response of the sampled-data becomes greater. However, the dynamic behavior of the sampled-data system may be improved by redesigning the controller. It appears that a sampling period as high as 0.1 second is feasible for the LST system. However, it should be noted that the conclusions are obtained with the existing system model. Other practical considerations such as noise, coupling effects and quantization errors, may restrict the sampling period to a lower value.

Kuo, B. C.↗

Testing the accuracy of remote sensing land use maps

Some of the main aspects that need to be considered in a remote sensing sampling design are: (1) the frequency that any one land use type (on the ground) is erroneously attributed to another class by the interpreter; (2) the frequency that the wrong land use (as observed on the ground) is erroneously included in any one class by the remote sensing interpreter; (3) the proportion of all land (as determined in the field) that is mistakenly attributed by the interpreter; and (4) the determination of whether the mistakes are random (so that the overall proportions are approximately correct) or subject to a persistent bias. A sampling and statistical testing procedure is presented which allows an approximate answer to each of these aspects. The concept developed and described incorporates the probability of making incorrect interpretations at particular prescribed accuracy levels, for a certain number of errors, for a particular sample size. It is considered that this approach offers a meaningful explanation of the interpretation accuracy level of an entire remote sensing land use survey.

Vangenderen, J. L.↗

Milky Way mass with K giants and BHB stars using LAMOST, SDSS/SEGUE, and Gaia : 3D spherical Jeans equation and tracer mass estimator

ABSTRACT We measure the enclosed Milky Way mass profile to Galactocentric distances of ∼70 and ∼50 kpc using the smooth, diffuse stellar halo samples of Bird et al. The samples are Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) and Sloan Digital Sky Survey/Sloan Extension for Galactic Understanding and Exploration (SDSS/SEGUE) K giants (KG) and SDSS/SEGUE blue horizontal branch (BHB) stars with accurate metallicities. The 3D kinematics are available through LAMOST and SDSS/SEGUE distances and radial velocities and Gaia DR2 proper motions. Two methods are used to estimate the enclosed mass: 3D spherical Jeans equation and Evans et al. tracer mass estimator (TME). We remove substructure via the Xue et al. method based on integrals of motion. We evaluate the uncertainties on our estimates due to random sampling noise, systematic distance errors, the adopted density profile, and non-virialization and non-spherical effects of the halo. The tracer density profile remains a limiting systematic in our mass estimates, although within these limits we find reasonable agreement across the different samples and the methods applied. Out to ∼70 and ∼50 kpc, the Jeans method yields total enclosed masses of 4.3 ± 0.95 (random) ±0.6 (systematic) × 1011 M⊙ and 4.1 ± 1.2 (random) ±0.6 (systematic) × 1011 M⊙ for the KG and BHB stars, respectively. For the KG and BHB samples, we find a dark matter virial mass of $M_{200}=0.55^{+0.15}_{-0.11}$ (random) ±0.083 (systematic) × 1012 M⊙ and $M_{200}=1.00^{+0.67}_{-0.33}$ (random) ±0.15 (systematic) × 1012 M⊙, respectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Stochastic modeling and statistical calibration with model error and scarce data

This paper introduces a procedure to assess the predictive accuracy of stochastic models subject to model error and sparse data. Model error is introduced as uncertainty on the coefficients of appropriate polynomial chaos expansions (PCE). The error associated with finite sample size allows us to conceive of these coefficients as statistics of the data that we describe as random variables whose influence on output quantities of interest is evaluated through the extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE). A Bayesian data assimilation scheme is introduced to update these expansions by considering the resulting nested chaos expansion as a hierarchical probabilistic model. Stochastic models of quantities of interest (QoI) are thus constructed and efficiently evaluated. Here, the Metropolis–Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure is used to sample the posterior. Two illustrative analytical and numerical problems are used to demonstrate the proposed approach.

Bayesian inference↗

Image correlation and sampling study

The development of analytical approaches for solving image correlation and image sampling of multispectral data is discussed. Relevant multispectral image statistics which are applicable to image correlation and sampling are identified. The general image statistics include intensity mean, variance, amplitude histogram, power spectral density function, and autocorrelation function. The translation problem associated with digital image registration and the analytical means for comparing commonly used correlation techniques are considered. General expressions for determining the reconstruction error for specific image sampling strategies are developed.

Popp, D. J.↗

The Cloud-resolving model Radar SIMulator (CR-SIM) Version 3.3: description and applications of a virtual observatory

Ground-based observatories use multi-sensor observations to characterize cloud and precipitation properties. One of the challenges is how to design strategies to best use these observations to understand these properties and evaluate weather and climate models. This paper introduces the Cloud resolving model Radar SIMulator (CR-SIM), which uses output from high-resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) to emulate multi-wavelength, zenith-pointing, and scanning radar observables and multi-sensor (radar and lidar) products. CR-SIM allows direct comparison between an atmospheric model simulation and remote-sensing products using a forward-modeling framework consistent with the microphysical assumptions used in the atmospheric model. CR-SIM has the flexibility to easily incorporate additional microphysical modules, such as microphysical schemes and scattering calculations, and expand the applications to simulate multi-sensor retrieval products. In this paper, we present several applications of CR-SIM for evaluating the representativeness of cloud microphysics and dynamics in a CRM, quantifying uncertainties in radar-lidar integrated cloud products and multi-Doppler wind retrievals, and optimizing radar sampling strategy using observing system simulation experiments. These applications demonstrate the application of CR-SIM as a virtual observatory operator on high-resolution model output for a consistent comparison between model results and observations to aid interpretation of the differences and improve understanding of the representativeness errors due to the sampling limitations of the ground-based measurements. CR-SIM is licensed under the GNU GPL package and both the software and the user guide are publicly available to the scientific community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NSFnets (Navier-Stokes flow nets): Physics-informed neural networks for the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations

In the last 50 years there has been a tremendous progress in solving numerically the Navier-Stokes equations using finite differences, finite elements, spectral, and even meshless methods. Yet, in many real cases, we still cannot incorporate seamlessly (multi-fidelity) data into existing algorithms, and for industrial-complexity applications the mesh generation is time consuming and still an art. Moreover, solving ill-posed problems (e.g., lacking boundary conditions) or inverse problems is often prohibitively expensive and requires different formulations and new computer codes. Here, we employ physics-informed neural networks (PINNs), encoding the governing equations directly into the deep neural network via automatic differentiation, to overcome some of the aforementioned limitations for simulating incompressible laminar and turbulent flows. We develop the Navier-Stokes flow nets (NSFnets) by considering two different mathematical formulations of the Navier-Stokes equations: the velocity-pressure (VP) formulation and the vorticity-velocity (VV) formulation. Since this is a new approach, we first select some standard benchmark problems to assess the accuracy, convergence rate, computational cost and flexibility of NSFnets; analytical solutions and direct numerical simulation (DNS) databases provide proper initial and boundary conditions for the NSFnet simulations. The spatial and temporal coordinates are the inputs of the NSFnets, while the instantaneous velocity and pressure fields are the outputs for the VP-NSFnet, and the instantaneous velocity and vorticity fields are the outputs for the VV-NSFnet. This is unsupervised learning and, hence, no labeled data are required beyond boundary and initial conditions and the fluid properties. The residuals of the VP or VV governing equations, together with the initial and boundary conditions, are embedded into the loss function of the NSFnets. No data is provided for the pressure to the VP-NSFnet, which is a hidden state and is obtained via the incompressibility constraint without extra computational cost. Unlike the traditional numerical methods, NSFnets inherit the properties of neural networks (NNs), hence the total error is composed of the approximation, the optimization, and the generalization errors. Here, we empirically attempt to quantify these errors by varying the sampling (“residual”) points, the iterative solvers, and the size of the NN architecture. For the laminar flow solutions, we show that both the VP and the VV formulations are comparable in accuracy but their best performance corresponds to different NN architectures. The initial convergence rate is fast but the error eventually saturates to a plateau due to the dominance of the optimization error. For the turbulent channel flow, we show that NSFnets can sustain turbulence at , but due to expensive training we only consider part of the channel domain and enforce velocity boundary conditions on the subdomain boundaries provided by the DNS data base. We also perform a systematic study on the weights used in the loss function for balancing the data and physics components, and investigate a new way of computing the weights dynamically to accelerate training and enhance accuracy. In the last part, we demonstrate how NSFnets should be used in practice, namely for ill-posed problems with incomplete or noisy boundary conditions as well as for inverse problems. We obtain reasonably accurate solutions for such cases as well without the need to change the NSFnets and at the same computational cost as in the forward well-posed problems. As a result, we also present a simple example of transfer learning that will aid in accelerating the training of NSFnets for different parameter settings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗