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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

What Causes Mars' Annular Polar Vortices?

A distinctive feature of the Martian atmosphere is that the winter polar vortices exhibit annuli of high potential vorticity (PV) with a local minimum near the pole. These annuli are seen in observations, reanalyses, and free-running general circulation model simulations of Mars, but are not generally a feature of Earth's polar vortices, where there is a monotonic increase in magnitude of PV with latitude. The creation and maintenance of the annular polar vortices on Mars are not well understood. Here we use simulations with a Martian general circulation model to the show that annular vortices are related to another distinctive, and possibly unique in the solar system, feature of the Martian atmosphere: the condensation of the predominant atmospheric gas species (CO2) in polar winter regions. The latent heat associated with CO2 condensation leads to destruction of PV in the polar lower atmosphere, inducing the formation of an annular PV structure.

Toigo, A. D.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Representing cropping systems with the MEMS 2 ecosystem model

Abstract Croplands have been the focus of substantial investigation due to their considerable potential for sequestering carbon. Understanding the potential for soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration and necessary management strategies will be enabled with accurate process‐based models. Accurately representing crop growth and agricultural practices will be critical for realistic SOC modeling. The MEMS 2 model incorporates a current understanding of SOC formation and stabilization, measurable SOC pools, and deep SOC dynamics and is seen as a highly promising tool to inform management intervention for SOC sequestration. Thus far, MEMS 2 has been developed to represent grasslands. In this study, we further developed MEMS 2 to model annual grain crops and common agricultural practices, such as irrigation, fertilization, harvesting, and tillage. Using four Ameriflux sites, we demonstrated an accurate simulation of crop growth and development. Model performance was strong for simulating aboveground biomass (index of agreement [d] range of 0.89–0.98) and green leaf area index (dfrom 0.90 to 0.96) across corn, soybean, and winter wheat. Good agreement with observations was also achieved for net ecosystem CO 2 exchange (dfrom 0.90 to 0.96), evapotranspiration (dfrom 0.91 to 0.94), and soil temperature (dof 0.96), while discrepancy with the available soil water content data remain (dfrom 0.14 to 0.81 at four depths to 100 cm). While we will continue model testing and improvement, MEMS 2 (version 2.14) has now demonstrated its ability to effectively simulate the growth of common grain crops and practices.

Agriculture↗
NASA NTRS1986

Precision attitude determination and control using gyros and earth sensor

A novel scheme to estimate the biases present in the gyros and the attitude of three-axis stabilized earth pointing spacecraft using the outputs of gyros and earth sensor is presented. The earth sensor pitch output is averaged every orbit to provide pitch gyro bias correction. Roll and yaw gyro biases are determined by averaging the earth sensor roll output every quarter orbit and suitably combining the four quarter orbit averages obtained in each orbit. Yaw attitude information is also required once every orbit. Simulation studies including error sources due to earth sensor, gyros, yaw sensor and horizon radiance uncertainty in the winter poles showed that attitude determination accuracy of 0.01-0.03 deg (3 sigma) can be achieved about all the axes.

Rajaram, S.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Seasonal Temperatures in West Antarctica During the Holocene

The recovery of long-term climate proxy records with seasonal resolution is rare because of natural smoothing processes, discontinuities, and limitations in measurement resolution. Yet insolation forcing, a primary driver of multi-millennial-scale climate change, acts through seasonal variations with direct impacts on seasonal climate. Whether the sensitivity of seasonal climate to insolation matches theoretical predictions has not been assessed over long timescales. Here, we analyze a continuous record of water-isotope ratios from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide ice core to reveal summer and winter temperature changes through the last 11,000 years. Summer temperatures in West Antarctica increased through the early-to-mid Holocene, reached a peak at 4.1 ka, and then decreased to the present. Climate model simulations show that these variations primarily reflect changes in maximum summer insolation, confirming the general connection between seasonal insolation and warming, and demonstrating the importance of insolation intensity rather than seasonally integrated insolation or season duration. Winter temperatures varied less overall, consistent with predictions from insolation forcing, but also fluctuated in the early Holocene, likely owing to changes in meridional heat transport. The magnitudes of summer and winter temperature changes constrain the lowering of the WAIS surface since the early Holocene to less than 162 m, and most likely less than 58 m, consistent with geological constraints elsewhere in West Antarctica.

Cryospheric science↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bulk cloud microphysical properties as seen from numerical simulation and remote sensing products: case study of a hailstorm event over the La Plata Basin

Hailstorms develop over the La Plata Basin, in south-eastern South America, more often during later winter and early austral spring, between September and October. These systems have significant socioeconomic impacts over the region. Thus, a better understanding of how atmospheric drivers modulate the formation of hailstorms is important to improve the forecast of such phenomena. In this study, we selected a hailstorm event observed over the eastern La Plata Basin during 14–15 July 2016 to evaluate the performance of the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (BRAMS) model. The ability of the model in simulating cloud microphysical properties was evaluated by comparing simulations driven by different global forcings against in situ and remote sensing observations. The model results showed good skill in capturing the basic characteristics of the thunderstorm, particularly in terms of the spatial distribution of hydrometeors. The simulated spatial distribution of hail covers locations where hail fall was reported. The BRAMS simulations suggest that, despite relatively low values of the convective available potential energy (CAPE) (700–1000 J kg -1 ), environments with strong 0–8-km bulk shear (60–70 kt, ~30.9–36.0 m s –1 ) can promote the formation of ice clouds and hail fall over the eastern La Plata Basin. To be more conclusive, however, further research is needed to understand how different combinations of CAPE and shear affect hail formation over the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1988

Linear simulation of the stationary eddies in a GCM. II - The 'Mountain' model

Linear stationary wave theory is used to account for zonal asymmetries of the winter-averaged tropospheric circulation obtained in a GCM. The eddy zonal velocity field in the upper troposphere indicates that the orographic and thermal plus transient contributions are nearly equal in amplitude, while the eddy meridional velocity field (which is dominated by shorter zonal scales) shows the orographic contribution to be dominant. The two contributions are found to be roughly in phase over the east Asian coast, and they contribute roughly equal amounts to the low level Siberian high. Results indicate that the 300 mb extratropical response to tropical forcing reaches 50 gpm over Alaska, and that the responses to sensible heating and lower tropospheric transients are strongly anticorrelated.

Nigam, Sumant↗
NASA NTRS1994

Snow hydrology in a general circulation model

A snow hydrology has been implemented in an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The snow hydrology consists of parameterizations of snowfall and snow cover fraction, a prognostic calculation of snow temperature, and a model of the snow mass and hydrologic budgets. Previously, only snow albedo had been included by a specified snow line. A 3-year GCM simulation with this now more complete surface hydrology is compared to a previous GCM control run with the specified snow line, as well as with observations. In particular, the authors discuss comparisons of the atmospheric and surface hydrologic budgets and the surface energy budget for U.S. and Canadian areas. The new snow hydrology changes the annual cycle of the surface moisture and energy budgets in the model. There is a noticeable shift in the runoff maximum from winter in the control run to spring in the snow hydrology run. A substantial amount of GCM winter precipitation is now stored in the seasonal snowpack. Snow cover also acts as an important insulating layer between the atmosphere and the ground. Wintertime soil temperatures are much higher in the snow hydrology experiment than in the control experiment. Seasonal snow cover is important for dampening large fluctuations in GCM continental skin temperature during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Snow depths and snow extent show good agreement with observations over North America. The geographic distribution of maximum depths is not as well simulated by the model due, in part, to the coarse resolution of the model. The patterns of runoff are qualitatively and quantitatively similar to observed patterns of streamflow averaged over the continental United States. The seasonal cycles of precipitation and evaporation are also reasonably well simulated by the model, although their magnitudes are larger than is observed. This is due, in part, to a cold bias in this model, which results in a dry model atmosphere and enhances the hydrologic cycle everywhere.

Marshall, Susan↗
NASA NTRS2017

Regional Impacts of Urbanization in the United States

We simulate the impact of impervious surface areas (ISA) on the U.S. local and regional climate. At a local scale, we find the urban area warmer than the surrounding vegetation in most cities, except in arid climate cities where urban temperature is cooler for much of the daytime. For all 9 regions studied, simulated results show that the growing season maximum surface temperature difference between urban and the dominant vegetation occurs around mid-day and is strongest in the northern regions. Regional temperature differences of 3.0 C, 3.4 C, and 3.9 C were simulated in the Northeast, Midwest, and Northwest, respectively. In these regions evaporative cooling, during the growing season, creates a stronger urban heat island (UHI). The UHI is less pronounced during winter when vegetation is dormant. Our results suggest that the ISA temperature is set by building material's characteristics and its departure from that of the surrounding vegetation is essentially driven by evaporative cooling. Except when rainfall is small, the highest surface runoff to precipitation ratios are simulated in most cities, especially when precipitation events occur as heavy downpours. In terms of photosynthesis, we provide a detailed distribution of maximum production in the U.S., a needed product for policy and urban planners.

Bounoua, Lahouari↗
NASA NTRS2020

Historical and Future Changes in Air Pollutants from CMIP6 Models

Poor air quality is currently responsible for large impacts on human health across the world. In addition, the air pollutants ozone (O3) and particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) are also radiatively active in the atmosphere and can influence Earth's climate. It is important to understand the effect of air quality and climate mitigation measures over the historical period and in different future scenarios to ascertain any impacts from air pollutants on both climate and human health. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) presents an opportunity to analyse the change in air pollutants simulated by the current generation of climate and Earth system models that include a representation of chemistry and aerosols (particulate matter). The shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) used within CMIP6 encompass a wide range of trajectories in precursor emissions and climate change, allowing for an improved analysis of future changes to air pollutants. Firstly, we conduct an evaluation of the available CMIP6 models against surface observations of O3 and PM2.5. CMIP6 models consistently overestimate observed surface O3 concentrations across most regions and in most seasons by up to 16 ppb, with a large diversity in simulated values over Northern Hemisphere continental regions. Conversely, observed surface PM2.5 concentrations are consistently underestimated in CMIP6 models by up to 10 µg m−3, particularly for the Northern Hemisphere winter months, with the largest model diversity near natural emission source regions. The biases in CMIP6 models when compared to observations of O3 and PM2.5 are similar to those found in previous studies. Over the historical period (1850–2014) large increases in both surface O3 and PM2.5 are simulated by the CMIP6 models across all regions, particularly over the mid to late 20th century, when anthropogenic emissions increase markedly. Large regional historical changes are simulated for both pollutants across East and South Asia with an annual mean increase of up to 40 ppb for O3 and 12 µg m−3 for PM2.5. In future scenarios containing strong air quality and climate mitigation measures (ssp126), annual mean concentrations of air pollutants are substantially reduced across all regions by up to 15 ppb for O3 and 12 µg m−3 for PM2.5. However, for scenarios that encompass weak action on mitigating climate and reducing air pollutant emissions (ssp370), annual mean increases in both surface O3 (up 10 ppb) and PM2.5 (up to 8 µg m−3) are simulated across most regions, although, for regions like North America and Europe small reductions in PM2.5 are simulated due to the regional reduction in precursor emissions in this scenario. A comparison of simulated regional changes in both surface O3 and PM2.5 from individual CMIP6 models highlights important regional differences due to the simulated interaction of aerosols, chemistry, climate and natural emission sources within models. The projection of regional air pollutant concentrations from the latest climate and Earth system models used within CMIP6 shows that the particular future trajectory of climate and air quality mitigation measures could have important consequences for regional air quality, human health and near-term climate. Differences between individual models emphasise the importance of understanding how future Earth system feedbacks influence natural emission sources, e.g. response of biogenic emissions under climate change.

Air pollutants↗
NASA NTRS2010

21st Century Trends in Antarctic Temperature and Polar Stratospheric Cloud (PSC) Area in the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

This study examines trends in Antarctic temperature and APSC, a temperature proxy for the area of polar stratospheric clouds, in an ensemble of Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. A selection of greenhouse gas, ozone-depleting substance, and sea surface temperature scenarios is used to test the trend sensitivity to these parameters. One scenario is used to compare temperature trends in two versions of the GEOS CCM. An extended austral winter season is examined in detail. In May, June, and July, the expected future increase in CO2-related radiative cooling drives temperature trends in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. At 50 hPa, a 1.3 K cooling is expected between 2000 and 2100. Ozone levels increase, despite this robust cooling signal and the consequent increase in APSC, suggesting the enhancement of stratospheric transport in future. In the lower stratosphere, the choice of climate change scenarios does not affect the magnitude of the early winter cooling. Midwinter temperature trends are generally small. In October, APSC trends have the same sign as the prescribed halogen trends. That is, there are negative APSC trends in "grealistic future" simulations, where halogen loading decreases in accordance with the Montreal Protocol and CO2 continues to increase. In these simulations, the speed of ozone recovery is not influenced by either the choice of sea surface temperature and greenhouse gas scenarios or by the model version.

Hurwitz, M. M.↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Assessment of Southern Ocean Water Masses and Sea Ice During 1988-2007 in a Suite of Interannual CORE-II Simulations

We characterise the representation of the Southern Ocean water mass structure and sea ice within a suite of 15 global ocean-ice models run with the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiment Phase II (CORE-II) protocol. The main focus is the representation of the present (1988-2007) mode and intermediate waters, thus framing an analysis of winter and summer mixed layer depths; temperature, salinity, and potential vorticity structure; and temporal variability of sea ice distributions. We also consider the interannual variability over the same 20 year period. Comparisons are made between models as well as to observation-based analyses where available. The CORE-II models exhibit several biases relative to Southern Ocean observations, including an underestimation of the model mean mixed layer depths of mode and intermediate water masses in March (associated with greater ocean surface heat gain), and an overestimation in September (associated with greater high latitude ocean heat loss and a more northward winter sea-ice extent). In addition, the models have cold and fresh/warm and salty water column biases centred near 50 deg S. Over the 1988-2007 period, the CORE-II models consistently simulate spatially variable trends in sea-ice concentration, surface freshwater fluxes, mixed layer depths, and 200-700 m ocean heat content. In particular, sea-ice coverage around most of the Antarctic continental shelf is reduced, leading to a cooling and freshening of the near surface waters. The shoaling of the mixed layer is associated with increased surface buoyancy gain, except in the Pacific where sea ice is also influential. The models are in disagreement, despite the common CORE-II atmospheric state, in their spatial pattern of the 20-year trends in the mixed layer depth and sea-ice.

Sea ice↗
NASA NTRS1985

Transient Eddies in the UCLA GCM

The simulation of transient eddies in the nine level UCLA general circulation model (GCM) was examined and compared to observations, with emphasis on the Northern Hemisphere winter. Qualitatively, the UCLA GCM reproduces many features of the observed circulation and the relationship between the time mean flow and transient eddies; however, the magnitudes of transient eddies in the UCLA GCM, particularly at frequencies lower than those associated with baroclinic instability, appear to be much less than those observed. The pattern of low level transient eddy heat fluxes were similar to observations and acted to dissipate the low level seasonal mean temperature field. The simulated transient eddy kinetic energy at 300 mb is given for eddies of all time scales shorter than a season.

White, G. H.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Vertical Profiles of Mars 1.27 Micrometer O2 Dayglow from MRO CRISM Limb Spectra: Seasonal/global Behaviors, Comparisons to LMDGCM Simulations, and a Global Definition for Mars Water Vapor Profiles

Since July of 2009, The Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectral Mapper (CRISM) onboard the Mars Re- connaissance Orbiter (MRO) has periodically obtained pole-to-pole observations (i.e., full MRO orbits) of limb scanned visible/near IR spectra (lambda= 0.4 - 4.0 micrometers, delta lambda approx. 10 nm- Murchie et al., 2007). These CRISM limb observations support the first seasonally and spatially extensive set of Mars 1.27 micometers O2 (1 delta(sub g)) day-glow profile retrievals (approx. 1100) over greater than or equal to 8-80 km altitudes. Their comparison to Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD) global climate model (GCM) simulated O2 (1 delta(sub g)) volume emission rate (VER) profiles, as a function of altitude, latitude, and season (solar longitude, L(sub s), supports several key conclusions regarding Mars atmospheric water vapor (which is derived from O2 (1 delta(sub g)) emission rates), Mars O3, and the collisional de-excitation of O2 (1 delta(sub g)) in the Mars CO2 atmosphere. Current (Navarro et al., 2014) LMDGCM simulations of Mars atmospheric water vapor fall 2-3 times below CRISM derived water vapor abundances at 20-40 km altitudes over low-to-mid latitudes in northern spring (L(sub s) = 30-60 deg), and northern mid-to-high latitudes over northern summer (L(sub s) = 60-140 deg). In contrast, LMDGCM simulated water vapor is 2-5 times greater than CRISM derived values at all latitudes and seasons above 40 km, within the aphelion cloud belt (ACB), and over high-southern to mid-southern latitudes in southern summer (L(sub s) = 190-340 deg) at 15-35 km altitudes. Overall, the solstitial summer-to-winter hemisphere gradients in water vapor are reversed between the LMDGCM modeled versus the CRISM derived water vapor abundances above 10-30 km altitudes. LMDGCM-CRISM differences in water vapor profiles correlate with LMDGCM-CRISM differences in cloud mixing profiles; and likely reflect limitations in simulating cloud microphysics and radiative forcing, both of which restrict meridional transport of water from summer- to-winter hemispheres on Mars (Clancy et al., 1996; Montmessin et al., 2004; Steele et al., 2014; Navarro et al., 2014) and depend on uncertain cloud microphysical properties (Navarro et al., 2014). The derived low-to-mid latitude changes in Mars water vapor vertical distributions should reduce current model- data disagreements in column O3 and H2O2 abundances over low-to-mid latitudes (e.g., within the ACB; Lefevre et al., 2008; Encrenaz et al., 2015; Clancy et al., 2016). Lastly, the global/seasonal average com- parison of CRISM and LMDGCM O2 (1 delta(sub g)) VER below 20 km altitudes indicates a factor of approx. 3 times lower value (0.25 x 10(exp -20) cu cm sec(exp -1)) for the CO2 collisional de-excitation rate coefficient of O2 (1 delta(sub g)) than derived recently by Guslyakova et al. (2016).

Clancy, R. Todd↗
DOE OSTI2022

Arctic Ocean annual high in ${{\boldsymbol{p}}}_{{{\bf{CO}}}_{{\bf{2}}}}$ could shift from winter to summer

Long-term stress on marine organisms from ocean acidification will differ between seasons. As atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) increases, so do seasonal variations of ocean CO 2 partial pressure (p co 2 ), causing summer and winter long-term trends to diverge. Trends may be further influenced by an unexplored factor—changes in the seasonal timing of p co 2 . In Arctic Ocean surface waters, the observed timing is typified by a winter high and summer low because biological effects dominate thermal effects. Here we show that 27 Earth system models simulate similar timing under historical forcing but generally project that the summer low, relative to the annual mean, eventually becomes a high across much of the Arctic Ocean under mid-to-high-level CO 2 emissions scenarios. Often the greater increase in summer p co 2 , although gradual, abruptly inverses the chronological order of the annual high and low, a phenomenon not previously seen in climate-related variables. The main cause is the large summer sea surface warming from earlier retreat of seasonal sea ice. Warming and changes in other drivers enhance this century’s increase in extreme summer p co 2 by 29 ± 9 per cent compared with no change in driver seasonalities. Thus the timing change worsens summer ocean acidification, which in turn may lower the tolerance of endemic marine organisms to increasing summer temperatures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

The detectability of Arctic leads using thermal imagery under varying atmospheric conditions

The way in which thermal contrast between leads of varying widths and thickness can be distinguished from the background multiyear ice surface under varying atmospheric conditions is examined. The normalized brightness temperature difference between image pixels that include lead fractions and of the background ice is employed to determine thresholds of detection accounting for sensor FOV and various atmospheric phenomena that influence the Arctic radiation balance during winter. Surface temperatures are prescribed as a function of ice thickness, and the effects of the intervening atmosphere are simulated by varying the optical depths of hypothetic cloud or haze layers varying in microphysical characteristics. It is found that the limits of lead detection may be determined as a function of pixel lead fraction and atmospheric optical depth if suitable values of normalized contrast are used as detection criteria.

Stone, Robert S.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Soil Moisture and Snow Cover: Active or Passive Elements of Climate

A key question is the extent to which surface effects such as soil moisture and snow cover are simply passive elements or whether they can affect the evolution of climate on seasonal and longer time scales. We have constructed ensembles of predictability studies using the NCAR CCM3 in which we compared the relative roles of initial surface and atmospheric conditions over the central and western U.S. in determining the subsequent evolution of soil moisture and of snow cover. Results from simulations with realistic soil moisture anomalies indicate that internal climate variability may be the strongest factor, with some indication that the initial atmospheric state is also important. Model runs with exaggerated soil moisture reductions (near-desert conditions) showed a much larger effect, with warmer surface temperatures, reduced precipitation, and lower surface pressures; the latter indicating a response of the atmospheric circulation. These results suggest the possibility of a threshold effect in soil moisture, whereby an anomaly must be of a sufficient size before it can have a significant impact on the atmospheric circulation and climate. Results from simulations with realistic snow cover anomalies indicate that the time of year can be crucial. When introduced in late winter, these anomalies strongly affected the subsequent evolution of snow cover. When introduced in early winter, however, little or no effect is seen on the subsequent snow cover. Runs with greatly exaggerated initial snow cover indicate that the high reflectivity of snow is the most important process by which snow cover can impact climate, through lower surface temperatures and increased surface pressures. The results to date were obtained for model runs with present-day conditions. We are currently analyzing runs made with projected forcings for the 21st century to see if these results are modified in any way under likely scenarios of future climate change. An intriguing new statistical technique involving 'clustering' is developed to assist in this analysis.

Oglesby, Robert J.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Comparison of N2O Emissions from Soils at Three Temperate Agricultural Sites

Nitrous oxide (N2O) flux simulations by four models were compared with year-round field measurements from five temperate agricultural sites in three countries. The field sites included an unfertilized, semi-arid rangeland with low N2O fluxes in eastern Colorado, USA; two fertilizer treatments (urea and nitrate) on a fertilized grass ley cut for silage in Scotland; and two fertilized, cultivated crop fields in Germany where N2O loss during the winter was quite high. The models used were daily trace gas versions of the CENTURY model, DNDC, ExpertN, and the NASA-Ames version of the CASA model. These models included similar components (soil physics, decomposition, plant growth, and nitrogen transformations), but in some cases used very different algorithms for these processes. All models generated similar results for the general cycling of nitrogen through the agro-ecosystems, but simulated nitrogen trace gas fluxes were quite different. In most cases the simulated N20 fluxes were within a factor of about 2 of the observed annual fluxes, but even when models produced similar N2O fluxes they often produced very different estimates of gaseous N loss as nitric oxide (NO), dinitrogen (N2), and ammonia (NH3). Accurate simulation of soil moisture appears to be a key requirement for reliable simulation of N2O emissions. All models simulated the general pattern of low background fluxes with high fluxes following fertilization at the Scottish sites, but they could not (or were not designed to) accurately capture the observed effects of different fertilizer types on N2O flux. None of the models were able to reliably generate large pulses of N2O during brief winter thaws that were observed at the two German sites. All models except DNDC simulated very low N2O fluxes for the dry site in Colorado. The US Trace Gas Network (TRAGNET) has provided a mechanism for this model and site intercomparison. Additional intercomparisons are needed with these and other models and additional data sets; these should include both tropical agro-ecosystems and new agricultural management techniques designed for sustainability.

Frolking, S. E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Hydrological Data on Power System Operational Studies: Preprint

Hydropower is expected to play an important role in maintaining grid reliability and flexibility as the share of of variable renewable energy increases. While the current hydropower operational models have been studied and used widely, they haven't been updated for decades to meet new performance standards. For example, current steady state and dynamic models often neglect hydrological conditions, which may lead to unrealistic expectations when relying on hydropower for energy and ancillary services. To study this impact, a multi-timescale hydrological model was created by leveraging the National Renewable Energy Laboratory-developed Multi-timescale Integrated Dynamics and Scheduling (MIDAS) tool. Using MIDAS, we compare the impact of considering hydrological conditions in a day-ahead unit commitment (DAUC) schedule on the reduced 240-bus Western Interconnect (WI) test system under winter and summer case studies. We show that neglecting current hydrological conditions of hydropower plants in power system models can lead to an overestimation of hydropower capabilities, which could lead to power balancing issues. For example, power system DAUC simulation results of our reduced test system show that in the case where hydrological conditions are not considered in the model, an approximate 31% overestimation of hydropower capabilities occurs in the summer case and approximately 60% occurs in the winter case compared to what is available. Additionally, results show an underestimation of WI day-ahead power system generation costs by approximately $54M - $80M in the weekly summer scenario and $116M - $126M in the weekly winter scenario. This analysis helps to underscore the importance of considering hydrological data in power system operational studies.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,HYDRO ENERGY↗