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At least 307 records · Page 17

Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Quarterly Report

By providing a global view with a level playing field (no region missed because of unfavorable surface conditions or political boundaries), satellites have made major contributions to improved monitoring and understanding of our constantly changing planet. The global view has allowed surprising realizations like the relative sparsity of lightning strikes over oceans and the large-scale undulations on the massive Antarctic ice sheet. It has allowed the tracking of all sorts of phenomena, including aerosols, both natural and anthropogenic,as they move with the atmospheric circulation and impact weather and human health. But probably nothing that the global view allows is more important in the long term than its provision of unbiased data sets to address the issue of global change, considered by many to be among the most important issues facing humankind today. With satellites we can monitor atmospheric temperatures at all latitudes and longitudes, and obtain a global average that lessens the likelihood of becoming endlessly mired in the confusions brought about by the certainty of regional differences. With satellites we can monitor greenhouse gases such as CO2 not just above individual research stations but around the globe. With satellites we can monitor the polar sea ice covers, as we have done since the late 1970s, determining and quantifying the significant reduction in Arctic sea ice and the slight growth in Antarctic sea ice over that period. With satellites we can map the full extent and changes in the Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletions that were first identified from a single ground station; and through satellite data we have witnessed from afar land surface changes brought about by humans both intentionally, as with wide-scale deforestation, and unintentionally, as with the decay of the Aral Sea. The satellite data are far from sufficient for all that we need in order to understand the global system and forecast its changes, as we also need sophisticated climate models, in situ process studies, and data sets that extend back well before the introduction of satellite technology. Nuomthc)cmm, the repetitive, global view provided by satellites is contributing in a major way to our improved recognition of how the Earth is changing, a recognition that is none too soon in view of the magnitude of the impacts that humans can now have.

Bauman, William↗

RXTE Observations of Anomalous X-ray Pulsar 1E 1547.0-5408 During and After its 2008 and 2009 Outbursts

We present the results of Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) and Swift monitoring observations of the magnetar 1E 1547.0-5408 following the pulsar's radiative outbursts in 2008 October and 2009 January. We report on a study of the evolution of the timing properties and the pulsed flux from 2008 October 4 through 2009 December 26. In our timing study, a phase-coherent analysis shows that for the first 29 days following the 2008 outburst, there was a very fast increase in the magnitude of the rotational frequency derivative upsilon-dot, such that upsilon-dot-dot was a factor of 60 larger than that reported in data from 2007. This upsilon-dot magnitude increase occurred in concert with the decay of the pulsed flux following the start of the 2008 event. Following the 2009 outburst, for the first 23 days, upsilon-dot-dot was consistent with zero, and upsilon-dot had returned to close to its 2007 value. In contrast to the 2008 event, the 2009 outburst showed a major increase in persistent flux, relatively little change in the pulsed flux, and sudden significant spectral hardening approx 15 days after the outburst. We show that, excluding the month following each of the outbursts, and because of the noise and the sparsity in the data, multiple plausible timing solutions fit the pulsar's frequency behavior. We note similarities in the behavior of 1E 1547.0-5408 following the 2008 outburst to that seen in the AXP 1E 1048.1-5937 following its 2001-2002 outburst and discuss this in terms of the magnetar model.

Dib, Rim↗

Evaluation of the Effect of Surface Finish on High-Cycle Fatigue for SLM-IN718

A high-cycle fatigue (HCF) knockdown factor was estimated for Inconel 718, manufactured with the selective laser melt (SLM) process. This factor is the reduction at a common fatigue life from the maximum stress in fatigue for low-stress ground (LSG) specimens to the maximum stress of those left with the original surface condition. Various vendors provided specimens. To reduce the number of degrees-of-freedom, only one heat treat condition was evaluated. Testing temperatures included room temperature, 800F, 1000F, and 1200F. The two surface conditions were compared at constant lives, where data was available. The recommended knockdown factor of the as-built surface condition (average roughness of approximately 245 micro-inches/inch) versus low-stress ground condition (roughness <= 4 micro-inches/inch) is approximately 1/3 or 33%. This is to say that for the as-built surface condition, a maximum stress of 2/3 of the stress for LSG can be expected to produce the same life in the as built surface condition. As an alternative method, the surface finish was incorporated into a new parameter with the maximum stress. The new parameter was formulated to be similar to the fracture mechanics stress intensity factor, and it was named the pseudo stress intensity factor, Kp. Using Kp, the variance seemed acceptable across all sources, and the knockdown factor was estimated over the range of data identified by Kp where data occurred. A plot of the results suggests that the knockdown factor is a function of temperature, and that for low lives the knockdown is greater than the knockdown observed above about one million cycles, where it stabilizes. One data point at room temperature was clearly different, and the sparsity of data in the higher life region reduces the value of these results. The method does appear to provide useful results, and further characterization of the method is suggested.

Lambert, Dennis M.↗

Role of Updraft Velocity in Temporal Variability of Global Cloud Hydrometeor Number

Understanding how dynamical and aerosol inputs affect the temporal variability of hydrometeor formation in climate models will help to explain sources of model diversity in cloud forcing, to provide robust comparisons with data, and, ultimately, to reduce the uncertainty in estimates of the aerosol indirect effect. This variability attribution can be done at various spatial and temporal resolutions with metrics derived from online adjoint sensitivities of droplet and crystal number to relevant inputs. Such metrics are defined and calculated from simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model Version 5.1 (CAM5.1). Input updraft velocity fluctuations can explain as much as 48% of temporal variability in output ice crystal number and 61% in droplet number in GEOS-5 and up to 89% of temporal variability in output ice crystal number in CAM5.1. In both models, this vertical velocity attribution depends strongly on altitude. Despite its importance for hydrometeor formation, simulated vertical velocity distributions are rarely evaluated against observations due to the sparsity of relevant data. Coordinated effort by the atmospheric community to develop more consistent, observationally based updraft treatments will help to close this knowledge gap.

cloud condensation nuclei↗

Impact of Assimilating AIRS Cloud-Cleared Radiances on Atmospheric Dynamics and Polar Low Representation at High Latitudes

This study explores the sensitivity of planetary boundary layer height and related atmospheric dynamics to the assimilation of cloud-cleared AIRS (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder) radiances in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS, version 5) data assimilation and forecast system during the boreal fall 2014 season using observing system experiments (OSEs). Examined here are comparisons between the current, operational approach of assimilating AIRS clear-sky radiances against the assimilation of cloud-cleared radiances (CCR). In polar regions, assimilation of AIRS CCRs is particularly beneficial because of the sparsity of conventional observations and the prevalence of extended low-level stratus cloud cover, which limit the ingestion of clear-sky data. Assimilation of hyperspectral infrared information from AIRS over the Arctic region slightly modifies the lower midtropospheric temperature structure, which in turn contributes to adjustments in geopotential height, affecting the baroclinic instability properties over the entire hemisphere and explaining the overall improvement in global forecast skill. In addition, it is shown that the assimilation of CCRs benefits the representation of convectively-driven small-scale cyclones at high latitudes in the same way as previously noted for tropical cyclones. Specifically, assimilation of CCRs create a temperature dipole over the top of meteorologically active and strongly convective systems such as polar, arctic, and antarctic lows, which helps constrain the analyzed representation of their scale and vertical structure.

Mcgrath-Spangler, E. L.↗

Impact of Assimilating AIRS Cloud-Cleared Radiances on Atmospheric Dynamics and Boundary Layer Height at High Latitudes

High latitude weather forecasts, on scales ranging from mesoscale to synoptic, present difficulties due, in part, to the sparsity of conventional observations. In addition, the prevalence of extended low-level stratus cloud cover limits the use of infrared data, which are operationally assimilated only in areas unaffected by clouds. Use of cloud-cleared AIRS (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder) radiances (AIRS CCR), allows the assimilation of infrared information in cloudy regions, permitting data ingestion in regions usually undersampled. This study explores the sensitivity of planetary boundary layer height and related atmospheric dynamics to the assimilation of these data in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS, version 5) data assimilation and forecast system during the boreal fall 2014 season using observing system experiments (OSEs). Examined here are comparisons between the current, operational approach of assimilating AIRS clear-sky radiances against the assimilation of CCR. Assimilation of hyperspectral infrared information from AIRS over the Arctic region slightly modifies the lower midtropospheric temperature structure, which in turn contributes to adjustments in geopotential height, affecting the baroclinic instability properties over the entire hemisphere and explaining the overall improvement in global forecast skill.

McGrath-Spangler, E. L.↗

Using Graph Coloring to Compute Total Derivatives More Efficiently in OpenMDAO

When they are applicable, gradient based optimization algorithms are the most efficient way to solve design optimization problems. Although gradient based methods are generally efficient, they can be made significantly more so through the usage of analytic techniques to compute the necessary total derivatives. The traditional forward (direct) and reverse (adjoint) analytic techniques have computational costs that scale linearly with the number of design variables and the number of constraints, respectively. In this work, we present an application of a graph coloring algorithm to the analytic techniques for computing total derivative Jacobians in order to achieve much better computational scaling than the pure analytic methods can provide alone. A detailed theoretical explanation of how coloring algorithms interact with analytic derivative methods is presented that illustrates specific types of sparsity patterns that must be present in total derivative Jacobians in order for this coloring technique to be effective. The new technique has been implemented as a feature in the OpenMDAO framework and the implementation is demonstrated on two example problems. The performance on the example problems up to 50% reduction in compute cost for optimizations with bi-directional coloring compared to traditional constraint aggregation. Additionally, the results show how coloring technique alleviates some of the numerical difficulties that constraint aggregation can cause, leading to the ability to solve larger problems. It is expected that the new method will have wide applicability to multidisciplinary optimization problems, and that its availability in OpenMDAO will offer significant computational savings for users without the need for them to implement the coloring algorithm themselves.

Trajectory↗

Implicit Formulations of Bounded-Impulse Trajectory Models for Preliminary Interplanetary Low-Thrust Analysis

The bounded-impulse approach to low-thrust interplanetary trajectory optimization is widely used. In an effort to efficiently implement this approach using NASA’s OpenMDAO optimization software, the authors have implemented implicit formulations of the forward shooting/backwards-shooting methods commonly used in bounded-impulse models. These implicit approaches allow for vectorization of the underlying calculations which can significantly reduce runtime in interpreted languages. An implicit approach may be either converged by using an underlying nonlinear solver to converge the state propagation, or as a constraint in an optimizer-driven multiple-shooting approach. Significant computational efficiency gains are realized through the utilization of the modular approach to unified derivatives. Further computational efficiency is achieved by capitalizing on the sparsity of the constraint Jacobian matrix. This work demonstrates that a vectorized multiple-shooting approach for propagating a state-time history is superior in terms of computational efficiency as the number of segments in the state-propagation is increased.

Falck, Robert D↗

Adaptive Pressure Profile Method to Locate the Isolator Shock Train Leading Edge Given Limited Pressure Information

To maximize the performance of high-speed air-breathing engines, such as dual-mode scramjets, the streamwise location of the shock train leading edge (STLE) is ideally placed as far upstream in the isolator as possible while avoiding engine unstart. Thus, it is of interest to quantify and control the STLE location as the vehicle travels along its flight trajectory. The STLE location is typically quantified using wall static pressure measurements but there are often restrictions on the number and placement of transducers, thus reducing the accuracy and overall capability of STLE detection methods. In this work, the Adaptive Pressure Profile (APP) method is introduced to address such sparsity concerns. This method is data driven and does not heavily rely on prior information about the flow regime or engine model. Instead, the \mname method uses real-time pressure measurements from a small number of transducers to adaptively learn the isolator pressure profile. This adaptively-learned profile is fit to the pressure data at each time instance to estimate STLE location. The \mname method produces accurate estimates even when (1) the STLE location is not bounded by two or more transducers or (2) when the STLE location is between two transducers that are situated several duct heights apart. Data from two direct-connect isolator models are used to evaluate the accuracy of the \mname method and demonstrate its robustness for different back-pressure scenarios and transducer configurations.

Robin L Hunt↗

Adaptive Pressure Profile Method to Locate the Isolator Shock Train Leading Edge Given Limited Pressure Information

To maximize the performance of high-speed air-breathing engines, such as dual-mode scramjets, the streamwise location of the shock train leading edge (STLE) is ideally placed as far upstream in the isolator as possible while avoiding engine unstart. Thus, it is of interest to quantify and control the STLE location as the vehicle travels along its flight trajectory. The STLE location is typically quantified using wall static pressure measurements but there are often restrictions on the number and placement of transducers, thus reducing the accuracy and overall capability of STLE detection methods. In this work, the Adaptive Pressure Profile (APP) method is introduced to address such sparsity concerns. This method is data driven and does not heavily rely on prior information about the flow regime or engine model. Instead, the \mname method uses real-time pressure measurements from a small number of transducers to adaptively learn the isolator pressure profile. This adaptively-learned profile is fit to the pressure data at each time instance to estimate STLE location. The \mname method produces accurate estimates even when (1) the STLE location is not bounded by two or more transducers or (2) when the STLE location is between two transducers that are situated several duct heights apart. Data from two direct-connect isolator models are used to evaluate the accuracy of the \mname method and demonstrate its robustness for different back-pressure scenarios and transducer configurations.

Robin Hunt↗

Using Machine Learning to Infer Pre-Entry Properties for Asteroid Threat Analysis

Accurately assessing asteroid threats relies on knowledge of the asteroid’s pre-entry properties such as size, velocity, and mass. Directly measuring these properties can be infeasible due to the sparsity of events and the accuracy and fidelity of various sensors. Current analysis of an asteroid’s pre-entry properties involves modeling the asteroid’s entry into the Earth’s atmosphere. This process can be time consuming and can require manual adjustment of uncertain modeling specific parameters. NASA Ames has developed a genetic algorithm that can help automate asteroid modeling using the Fragment-Cloud Model (FCM). The algorithm generates realistic energy deposition curves based on actual energy deposition curves from real, observed asteroids. By using these synthetic, labeled energy deposition curves, we developed a one-dimensional convolutional neural network that can predict an asteroid’s pre-entry parameters.

ATAP↗

Summer temperatures during the last glaciation (MIS 5c to MIS 3) inferred from a 50,000-year chironomid record from Füramoos, southern Germany

There is a sparsity of long, continuous palaeotemperature records for the last glacial period in central Europe, particularly for the interval corresponding to Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 4 and 3. Here we present a new, ca. 50-thousand year (ka)-long chironomid record from Füramoos, southern Germany, covering the interval from MIS 5a to MIS 3 that we use to examine lake development and then to quantitatively reconstruct mean July air temperatures. Chironomid assemblages with high abundances of taxa such as Polypedilum nubeculosum-type, Microtendipes pedellus-type, Cladopelma lateralis-type and Dicrotendipes nervosus-type imply a shallow-lake setting for the majority of the examined interval, which is corroborated by other aquatic remains such as oribatid mites, Sialidae and Ceratopogonidae. Assemblages from the interval ca. 99 to 80 ka (in the region corresponding to the Brörup Interstadial, Stadial B and early Odderade Interstadial) are dominated by taxa such as Tanytarsus glabrescens-type and Tanytarsus mendax-type and indicate relatively warm temperatures. Assemblages from the interval covering ca. 80 to 54 ka (corresponding to the late Odderade, Stadial C, Dürnten Interstadial and Stadial D) are dominated by taxa such as Sergentia coracina-type and Tanytarsus lugens-type and are typical for cooler conditions. Reconstructed July temperatures for the early Würmian (Brörup to early Odderade; ca. 99–80 ka) are 13–14 °C. Values decline to <10 °C during the late Odderade and Stadial C (ca. 80–77 ka) around the MIS 5a/4 transition. This decrease is coeval with a pronounced decrease in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Values stay in the range of 9–11 °C during the Dürnten and Stadial D (ca. 54–74.5 ka) and increase again to 12.5 °C during the Bellamont 1 interstadial (ca. 54–46 ka). Reconstructed July temperatures track changes in arboreal pollen percentages at Füramoos and agree with a summer-temperature decrease during the early to mid-Würmian as reported by other palaeotemperature records from Europe and the North Atlantic. Our chironomid record from Füramoos provides valuable new insights into Würmian climate dynamics in Central Europe, and corroborates other temperature reconstructions from the early to mid-Würmian glacial period.

Chironomids↗

Compressive Sensing Application for Transient Photometric Measurements

Compressive Sensing (CS) is a mathematical theory for simultaneous data acquisition and compression. Natural phenomena may be sparse in some physical or temporal domain. If we exploit this sparsity by applying the technique of CS to obtain information, how do our measurements change as a function of domain and measurement systematics? What are the specific implications for the science and for the sensing infrastructure? In this talk, we will discuss the generalized systematic effects consequent to the application of CS to time-series photometric measurements. We assess implications for observability, sparsification, and information loss in the detection, retrieval and reconstruction process. To study time-series photometry, we explore the field of gravitational microlensing. A source star, typically in the galactic bulge, gets microlensed when there is a precise alignment of a lensing star and its planetary system, with the source star. The microlensed source star changes in flux magnification as the lensing system crosses the precise path of alignment, resulting in a microlensing curve in time domain. A high-cadence, high-resolution system, which uses low power and bandwidth is essential to obtain valuable science measurements. Hence, we discuss application of CS to gravitational microlensing data sets, which in turn can be generalized to any time-ordered photometric measurements.

Asmita Abhay Korde↗

Weekly Mapping of Sea Ice Freeboard in the Ross Sea from ICESat-2

NASA’s ICESat-2 has been providing sea ice freeboard measurements across the polar regions since October 2018. In spite of the outstanding spatial resolution and precision of ICESat-2, the spatial sparsity of the data can be a critical issue for sea ice monitoring. This study employs a geostatistical approach (i.e., ordinary kriging) to characterize the spatial autocorrelation of the ICESat-2 freeboard measurements (ATL10) to estimate weekly freeboard variations in 2019 for the entire Ross Sea area, including where ICESat-2 tracks are not directly available. Three variogram models (exponential, Gaussian, and spherical) are compared in this study. According to the cross-validation results, the kriging-estimated freeboards show correlation coefficients of 0.56–0.57, root mean square error (RMSE) of ~0.12 m, and mean absolute error (MAE) of ~0.07 m with the actual ATL10 freeboard measurements. In addition, the estimated errors of the kriging interpolation are low in autumn and high in winter to spring, and low in southern regions and high in northern regions of the Ross Sea. The effective ranges of the variograms are 5–10 km and the results from the three variogram models do not show significant differences with each other. The southwest (SW) sector of the Ross Sea shows low and consistent freeboard over the entire year because of the frequent opening of wide polynya areas generating new ice in this sector. However, the southeast (SE) sector shows large variations in freeboard, which demonstrates the advection of thick multiyear ice from the Amundsen Sea into the Ross Sea. Thus, this kriging-based interpolation of ICESat-2 freeboard can be used in the future to estimate accurate sea ice production over the Ross Sea by incorporating other remote sensing data.

Satellite altimeter↗

Bayesian Model Selection for Reducing Bloat and Overfitting in Genetic Programming for Symbolic Regression

When performing symbolic regression using genetic programming, overfitting and bloat can negatively impact generalizability and interpretability of the resulting equations as well as increase computation times. A Bayesian fitness metric is introduced and its impact on bloat and overfitting during population evolution is studied and compared to common alternatives in the literature. The proposed approach was found to be more robust to noise and data sparsity in numerical experiments, guiding evolution to a level of complexity appropriate to the dataset. Further evolution of the population resulted not in overfitting or bloat, but rather in slight simplifications in model form. The ability to identify an equation of complexity appropriate to the scale of noise in the training data was also demonstrated. In general, the Bayesian model selection algorithm was shown to be an effective means of regularization which resulted in less bloat and overfitting when any amount of noise was present in the training data.

G F Bomarito↗

Bayesian Model Selection for Reducing Bloat and Overfitting in Genetic Programming for Symbolic Regression

When performing symbolic regression using genetic programming, overfitting and bloat can negatively impact generalizability and interpretability of the resulting equations as well as increase computation times. A Bayesian fitness metric is introduced and its impact on bloat and overfitting during population evolution is studied and compared to common alternatives in the literature. The proposed approach was found to be more robust to noise and data sparsity in numerical experiments, guiding evolution to a level of complexity appropriate to the dataset. Further evolution of the population resulted not in overfitting or bloat, but rather in slight simplifications in model form. The ability to identify an equation of complexity appropriate to the scale of noise in the training data was also demonstrated. In general, the Bayesian model selection algorithm was shown to be an effective means of regularization which resulted in less bloat and overfitting when any amount of noise was present in the training data.

Uncertainty quantification↗

Transonic Flutter Dips of the AGARD 445.6 Wing

The AGARD 445.6 configuration is the most popular validation test case for transonic flutter predictions, but the actual extent of truly nonlinear transonic flow for this case is unclear, due to the sparsity of the experimental data, and the thin profile of the wing. This work utilizes a combination of mesh adaptation and the linearized frequency-domain method to obtain high-quality viscous and inviscid flutter predictions; these solutions show a double flutter dip through the transonic Mach range driven by complex shock growth across the wing. A single experimental flutter point lies in this flutter dip area, which is not enough to assess the accuracy of these transonic flutter predictions. Modeling the boundary layer of the wind tunnel wall (as opposed to the commonly-assumed symmetry wall assumption) appears to have a large impact on the predicted flutter boundary, but true mesh convergence of this scenario is a challenge.

Bret K Stanford↗

Computational Study of Low-Speed Boundary-Layer Laminar-Turbulent Transition over a 30º Swept Plate in a Channel

Reliable boundary-layer laminar-turbulent transition predictions are critical for the design of aircraft that use natural or controlled laminar flow to achieve low drag and better fuel efficiency. During cruise flight through low turbulence, the three-dimensional boundary layer over swept surfaces can transition prematurely due to stationary crossflow instabilities induced by surface roughness. Parabolized stability equations analyses have been successfully used to explain the different phases of the transition process under well controlled perturbations such as steps or discrete roughness elements. However, methodologies are still lacking to model the boundary layer receptivity to distributed random roughness, and the following non-linear instability stages leading to transition. For engineering applications, several semi-empirical methods based on linear amplification factors or local helicity have found growing adoption, but their reliability is limited by their level of simplification and the sparsity of data they are based on. To address this gap, a new study of the effect of distributed random surface roughness on crossflow transition was started, using a 30◦ swept plate as a test vehicle. The plate, which is mounted in the 2 Foot × 3 Foot Low-Speed Boundary-Layer Channel at the NASA Langley Research Center, has been tested with micro-scale roughness of varied geometry near the leading edge. In order to analyze the flow in the test section and prepare Direct Numerical Simulations with resolved roughness, Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations of the flow over the plate installed in the wind tunnel test section were performed using the Langtry-Menter transition model with stationary crossflow extension. This paper presents the results of these simulations, with comparison to the experiment.

ARMD↗