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NASA NTRS2023

Development of Solar Energetic Particle Prediction Portal (SEP3)

Robust prediction of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events is among the key priorities of the space weather community. In the framework of NASA’s Early Stage Innovation Program, we develop the Solar Energetic Particle Prediction Portal (SEP3: https://sun.njit.edu/SEP3), which hosts web applications that allow the users to retrieve the database records. In particular, SEP3 lists the API examples to query each data source potentially important for the SEP prediction. The Portal has a search page for browsing the events from the most widely used catalogs (https://sun.njit.edu/SEP3/search.php) and a dedicated space to share the most recent achievements of the team. In addition, we have added a CDAW SEP catalog and a LASCO/SOHO CME catalog and introduced the possibility of displaying the properties of the connected events (parental solar flares and CMEs for SEPs) on the search page. The interactive widget has the capability to display GOES soft X-ray and proton flux time series from different satellites with the GOES flare records on top of them. The data portal has been used to evaluate the forecasts of the solar proton events based on the statistical properties of the GOES soft X-ray and proton fluxes and investigate machine-learning approaches to the SEP prediction.

SMD↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measuring Muon Antineutrino Charged-Current Interactions without Mesons in the Final State, in the NOvA Near Detector

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino experiment based at Fermilab in the US, with the primary aim of measuring neutrino and antineutrino oscillations. This will enhance our understanding of electroweak interactions by measuring the neutrino mixing angles, CP-violating phase and neutrino mass ordering. To measure these oscillations, we first need to have a deep understanding of how neutrinos and antineutrinos interact with matter. Antineutrino interaction cross sections are, at present, particularly poorly constrained, and processes such as meson exchange currents are not well understood in the antineutrino sector. This analysis will develop a cross-section measurement of muon antineutrino interactions without mesons (e.g. pions or kaons) in the final state, in the NOvA near detector. A high-statistics, high-purity sample is obtained through a cut-based selection process implementing machine learning techniques. The sample is dominated by quasi-elastic and meson exchange current interactions which are sensitive to nuclear effects such as Final-State Interactions. The cross section will be extracted as a function of the incoming neutrino energy and the kinematics of the outgoing particles. This presentation will give an overview of the analysis and discuss progress towards obtaining the cross-section measurement.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Segmentation and Classification of Fission as Pores in Reactor Irradiated Annular U–10Zr Metallic Fuel Using Machine Learning Models

Metallic fuels, particularly U—10Zr, are promising candidates for next-generation sodium-cooled fast reactors. Irradiation of nuclear fuels in reactors can lead to the formation of solid and gas fission product which subsequently forms microstructural pores, deteriorating fuel performance. Due to the massive amount of pores and complex phases formed, a quantitative description of fission gas pores is not yet available, preventing the development of microstructure-informed fuel performance modeling for fuel qualification. This paper applied a pre-trained deep learning model to ~10,260 high magnification scanning electron microscopy images. This method increased the accuracy of fission gas pore segmentation and allows statistical features to be extracted which cannot be achieved manually. A pre-trained decision tree model worked on the segemenation results and further classified the pores into different categories to produce a correlation between the pores, movement of lanthanides, and temperature gradient during irradiation. Finally, this paper emphasizes the potentials of machine learning models to accelerate fuel research, development, and qualification for advanced reactors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Explainable machine learning reveals that local structural motifs encode the thermodynamic state across the CuZr metallic glass-forming range

Metallic glasses derive their properties from the statistics of local atomic motifs rather than from long-range order, yet a quantitative, chemistry-specific link between motif populations and the underlying glassy state has remained elusive. In this work we combine large-scale molecular dynamics, Voronoi tessellation, deep neural networks, and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to identify which local structural motifs define the glassy state of Cu—Zr metallic glasses. A dataset of 17,180 atomistic configurations spanning ten compositions (Cu 20 Zr 80 –Cu 80 Zr 20 ) and four quench rates (10 9 –10 12 K/s) is used to train a feed-forward neural network that regresses temperature across the 50–2000 K liquid–supercooled–glass range, achieving a mean absolute error of 19.89 K and R 2 = 0.9974, confirming that the local structural state is faithfully encoded in motif-level structure. SHAP analysis then reveals that a tightly coupled near-icosahedral family of motifs (coordination numbers (CN) 11–13, including the full icosahedron 001200 and its single-atom-perturbation sibling 10930) collectively encodes the thermodynamic state of the system across the full glass-forming range. The CN = 11–13 ordered members carry negative SHAP values at high populations, tracking the most deeply-quenched configurations, while 10930 shows the reversed signature consistent with its role as a soft-spot host whose population shrinks as the icosahedral network deepens. The analysis demonstrates that explainable machine learning can isolate the minimal motif vocabulary defining the glassy state and recovers the near-icosahedral building blocks previously identified by data-driven analyses of Cu—Zr. The approach provides a general, chemistry-specific route for characterizing the structural state of disordered materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning-Enabled Wearable Piezoelectric Acoustic Sensor for Real-Time Breast Abnormality Detection

In contemporary society, breast health has become a significant public health concern, particularly among women. According to statistics from the World Health Organization, both the incidence and mortality rates of breast tumors have steadily increased in recent years. Therefore, effective early-stage screening and postoperative monitoring are essential for maintaining breast health. However, conventional clinical diagnostic modalities are typically bulky, operationally complex, and unsuitable for continuous real-time monitoring, which limits their use in portable and everyday health management applications. To address these limitations, this study proposes a machine learning-integrated wearable piezoelectric sensing platform as an auxiliary tool for breast health assessment. The device consists of a PDMS matching layer embedded with flexible silver nanowires, a P(VDF-TrFE) piezoelectric layer, and a multi-channel low-noise signal acquisition circuit. It is capable of acquiring acoustic echo signals from tissue-mimicking environments and automatically evaluating signal validity using a convolutional neural network (CNN). By integrating piezoelectric sensing with deep learning-based signal analysis, the proposed system achieves a signal-to-noise ratio exceeding 70 dB and a real-time classification accuracy above 96% under controlled conditions. These results demonstrate that the platform provides a compact, portable, and intelligent approach for wearable sensing of mechanical heterogeneity and highlight its potential for future development in continuous biomedical monitoring technologies.

He, Shuaitong↗

NASA NTRS2023

Quantum Image Denoising: A Framework via Boltzmann Machines, QUBO, and Quantum Annealing

We investigate a framework for binary image denoising via restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs) that introduces a denoising objective in quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) form and is well-suited for quantum annealing. The denoising objective is attained by balancing the distribution learned by a trained RBM with a penalty term for derivations from the noisy image. We derive the statistically optimal choice of the penalty parameter assuming the target distribution has been well-approximated, and further suggest an empirically supported modification to make the method robust to that idealistic assumption. We also show under additional assumptions that the denoised images attained by our method are, in expectation, strictly closer to the noise-free images than the noisy images are. While we frame the model as an image denoising model, it can be applied to any binary data. As the QUBO formulation is well-suited for implementation on quantum annealers, we test the model on a D-Wave Advantage machine, and also test on data too large for current quantum annealers by approximating QUBO solutions through classical heuristics.

restricted Boltzmann machine↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Simulation-based 𝑤CDM inference from weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps with deep learning: Analysis design

Data-driven approaches using deep learning are emerging as powerful techniques to extract non-Gaussian information from cosmological large-scale structure. Here, this work presents the first simulation-based inference (SBI) pipeline that combines weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps in a realistic Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) configuration and serves as preparation for a forthcoming analysis of the survey data. We develop a scalable forward model based on the CosmoGridV1 suite of N-body simulations to generate over one million self-consistent mock realizations of DES Y3 at the map level. Leveraging this large dataset, we train deep graph convolutional neural networks on the full survey footprint in spherical geometry to learn low-dimensional features that approximately maximize mutual information with target parameters. These learned compressions enable neural density estimation of the implicit likelihood via normalizing flows in a ten-dimensional parameter space spanning cosmological 𝑤CDM, intrinsic alignment, and linear galaxy bias parameters, while marginalizing over baryonic, photometric redshift, and shear bias nuisances. To ensure robustness, we extensively validate our inference pipeline using synthetic observations derived from both systematic contaminations in our forward model and independent Buzzard galaxy catalogs. Our forecasts yield significant improvements in cosmological parameter constraints, achieving 2−3× higher figures of merit in the 𝛺 𝑚 − 𝑆 8 plane relative to our implementation of baseline two-point statistics and effectively breaking parameter degeneracies through probe combination. These results demonstrate the potential of SBI analyses powered by deep learning for upcoming Stage-IV wide-field imaging surveys.

Thomsen, A. [Zurich, ETH] (ORCID:0000000203099021)↗

NASA NTRS1984

Statistical analysis and use of the VAS radiance data

Special radiosonde soundings at 75 km spacings and 3 hour intervals provided an opportunity to learn more about mesoscale data and storm-environment interactions. Relatively small areas of intense convection produce major changes in surrounding fields of thermodynamic, kinematic, and energy variables. The Red River Valley tornado outbreak was studied. Satellite imagery and surface data were used to specify cloud information needed in the radiative heating/cooling calculations. A feasibility study for computing boundary layer winds from satellite-derived thermal data was completed. Winds obtained from TIROS-N retrievals compared very favorably with corresponding values from concurrent rawisonde thermal data, and both sets of thermally-derived winds showed good agreements with observed values.

Fuelberg, H. E.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Cloud Properties at Scott Base: Comparing Ceilometer Observations With ERA5, JRA55, and MERRA2 Reanalyses Using an Instrument Simulator

This study compares CL51 ceilometer observations made at Scott Base, Antarctica, with statistics from the ERA5, JRA55, and MERRA2 reanalyses. To enhance the comparison we use a lidar instrument simulator to derive cloud statistics from the reanalyses which account for instrumental factors. The cloud occurrence in the three reanalyses is slightly overestimated above 3 km, but displays a larger underestimation below 3 km relative to observations. Unlike previous studies, we see no relationship between relative humidity and cloud occurrence biases, suggesting that the cloud biases do not result from the representation of moisture. We also show that the seasonal variation of cloud occurrence and cloud fraction, defined as the vertically integrated cloud occurrence, are small in both the observations and the reanalyses. We also examine the quality of the cloud representation for a set of weather states derived from ERA5 surface winds. The variability associated with grouping cloud occurrence based on weather state is much larger than the seasonal variation, highlighting weather state is a strong control of cloud occurrence. All the reanalyses continue to display underestimates below 3 km and overestimates above 3 km for each weather state. But the variability in ERA5 statistics matches the changes in the observations better than the other reanalyses. We also use a machine learning scheme to estimate the quantity of supercooled liquid water cloud from the ceilometer observations. Ceilometer low-level supercooled liquid water cloud occurrences are considerably larger than values derived from the reanalyses, further highlighting the poor representation of low-level clouds in the reanalyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of the depth of maximum of air-shower profiles with energies between 10 18.5 and 10 20 eV using the surface detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory and deep learning

We report an investigation of the mass composition of cosmic rays with energies from 3 to 100 EeV ( 1 EeV = 10 18 eV ) using the distributions of the depth of shower maximum X max . The analysis relies on ∼ 50 , 000 events recorded by the surface detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory and a deep-learning-based reconstruction algorithm. Above energies of 5 EeV, the dataset offers a 10-fold increase in statistics with respect to fluorescence measurements at the Observatory. After cross-calibration using the fluorescence detector, this enables the first measurement of the evolution of the mean and the standard deviation of the X max distributions up to 100 EeV. Our findings are threefold: (i) The evolution of the mean logarithmic mass toward a heavier composition with increasing energy can be confirmed and is extended to 100 EeV. (ii) The evolution of the fluctuations of X max toward a heavier and purer composition with increasing energy can be confirmed with high statistics. We report a rather heavy composition and small fluctuations in X max at the highest energies. (iii) We find indications for a characteristic structure beyond a constant change in the mean logarithmic mass, featuring three breaks that are observed in proximity to the ankle, instep, and suppression features in the energy spectrum. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS1991

Collected Notes on the Workshop for Pattern Discovery in Large Databases

These collected notes are a record of material presented at the Workshop. The core data analysis is addressed that have traditionally required statistical or pattern recognition techniques. Some of the core tasks include classification, discrimination, clustering, supervised and unsupervised learning, discovery and diagnosis, i.e., general pattern discovery.

Buntine, Wray↗

NASA NTRS1995

Earth-space links and fade-duration statistics

In recent years, fade-duration statistics have been the subject of several experimental investigations. A good knowledge of the fade-duration distribution is important for the assessment of a satellite communication system's channel dynamics: What is a typical link outage duration? How often do link outages exceeding a given duration occur? Unfortunately there is yet no model that can universally answer the above questions. The available field measurements mainly come from temperate climatic zones and only from a few sites. Furthermore, the available statistics are also limited in the choice of frequency and path elevation angle. Yet, much can be learned from the available information. For example, we now know that the fade-duration distribution is approximately lognormal. Under certain conditions, we can even determine the median and other percentiles of the distribution. This paper reviews the available data obtained by several experimenters in different parts of the world. Areas of emphasis are mobile and fixed satellite links. Fades in mobile links are due to roadside-tree shadowing, whereas fades in fixed links are due to rain attenuation.

Davarian, Faramaz↗

NASA NTRS1996

Earth-Space Links and Fade-Duration Statistics

Davarian, Faramaz↗

NASA NTRS2000

A simulator for evaluating methods for the detection of lesion-deficit associations

Although much has been learned about the functional organization of the human brain through lesion-deficit analysis, the variety of statistical and image-processing methods developed for this purpose precludes a closed-form analysis of the statistical power of these systems. Therefore, we developed a lesion-deficit simulator (LDS), which generates artificial subjects, each of which consists of a set of functional deficits, and a brain image with lesions; the deficits and lesions conform to predefined distributions. We used probability distributions to model the number, sizes, and spatial distribution of lesions, to model the structure-function associations, and to model registration error. We used the LDS to evaluate, as examples, the effects of the complexities and strengths of lesion-deficit associations, and of registration error, on the power of lesion-deficit analysis. We measured the numbers of recovered associations from these simulated data, as a function of the number of subjects analyzed, the strengths and number of associations in the statistical model, the number of structures associated with a particular function, and the prior probabilities of structures being abnormal. The number of subjects required to recover the simulated lesion-deficit associations was found to have an inverse relationship to the strength of associations, and to the smallest probability in the structure-function model. The number of structures associated with a particular function (i.e., the complexity of associations) had a much greater effect on the performance of the analysis method than did the total number of associations. We also found that registration error of 5 mm or less reduces the number of associations discovered by approximately 13% compared to perfect registration. The LDS provides a flexible framework for evaluating many aspects of lesion-deficit analysis.

NASA Program Biomedical Research and Countermeasur↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Building a Real-Time Flood Prediction Model for Improving Early Warning Systems in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flood events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of applied remote sensing analyses is increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP National Program partnered with the local government of Howard County, Maryland, to investigate the use of machine learning for advanced flood risk detection, and to test the feasibility of integrating this approach into the county’s flood early warning system. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM), the project developed a statistical model capable of hindcasting the two severe flash flood events that devastated Ellicott City and transitioned to a ‘Long Short-Term Memory’ based sequence-to-sequence deep learning model with 8-hour forecast capability. The team combined data inputs from public sources including river and precipitation gauges, NASA and NOAA Earth observations, and numerical weather model products using scripts written in the Google Colaboratory Python scripting environment. In addition to designing the deep learning architecture, the team trained and tested the model, and evaluated its performance using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency. The final product, the Sequentially Trained Real-time EstimAted Model (STREAM) predicts stage height for the Hudson Branch gauge in Ellicott City using data products available in near real-time, including the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model’s accumulated precipitation forecasts supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the U.S. Geological Survey. STREAM was incorporated into an online dashboard in a user-friendly interface capable of triggering the alarms that initiate emergency response protocols up to 8 hours in advance of a predicted severe flood event. The project demonstrated the potential for the integration of open data and Earth observations into a flood risk forecasting tool capable of informing near real-time decision making.

NASA DEVELOP↗

NASA NTRS2010

Algorithms for Learning Preferences for Sets of Objects

A method is being developed that provides for an artificial-intelligence system to learn a user's preferences for sets of objects and to thereafter automatically select subsets of objects according to those preferences. The method was originally intended to enable automated selection, from among large sets of images acquired by instruments aboard spacecraft, of image subsets considered to be scientifically valuable enough to justify use of limited communication resources for transmission to Earth. The method is also applicable to other sets of objects: examples of sets of objects considered in the development of the method include food menus, radio-station music playlists, and assortments of colored blocks for creating mosaics. The method does not require the user to perform the often-difficult task of quantitatively specifying preferences; instead, the user provides examples of preferred sets of objects. This method goes beyond related prior artificial-intelligence methods for learning which individual items are preferred by the user: this method supports a concept of setbased preferences, which include not only preferences for individual items but also preferences regarding types and degrees of diversity of items in a set. Consideration of diversity in this method involves recognition that members of a set may interact with each other in the sense that when considered together, they may be regarded as being complementary, redundant, or incompatible to various degrees. The effects of such interactions are loosely summarized in the term portfolio effect. The learning method relies on a preference representation language, denoted DD-PREF, to express set-based preferences. In DD-PREF, a preference is represented by a tuple that includes quality (depth) functions to estimate how desired a specific value is, weights for each feature preference, the desired diversity of feature values, and the relative importance of diversity versus depth. The system applies statistical concepts to estimate quantitative measures of the user s preferences from training examples (preferred subsets) specified by the user. Once preferences have been learned, the system uses those preferences to select preferred subsets from new sets. The method was found to be viable when tested in computational experiments on menus, music playlists, and rover images. Contemplated future development efforts include further tests on more diverse sets and development of a sub-method for (a) estimating the parameter that represents the relative importance of diversity versus depth, and (b) incorporating background knowledge about the nature of quality functions, which are special functions that specify depth preferences for features.

Wagstaff, Kiri L.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Seeing is Believing: Autonomous Microscopy and the Data Revolution in Materials Science

This presentation explores the transformative potential of autonomous electron microscopy and artificial intelligence (AI) in accelerating materials science discovery, particularly for energy applications and materials operating in extreme environments. We discuss pioneering self-driving laboratories at NREL designed to intelligently probe material synthesis and degradation across multiple scales, aiming to rapidly bridge the gap between atomic-level understanding and the development of high-performance, reliable materials. Utilizing advanced machine learning techniques, such as few-shot learning and multimodal analysis integrating imaging and spectroscopy, we demonstrate methods to extract actionable descriptors for material behavior, quantify complex microstructural evolution, and statistically link synthesis parameters to defect populations. This AI-driven approach promises to accelerate the creation of predictive materials tailored for specific missions, enabling faster development cycles and enhanced material assurance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning-Guided Identification of PET Hydrolases from Natural Diversity

The enzymatic depolymerization of poly(ethylene terephthalate) (PET) is emerging as a leading chemical recycling technology for waste polyester. As part of this endeavor, new candidate enzymes identified from natural diversity can serve as useful starting points for enzyme evolution and engineering. In this study, we improved upon HMM searches by applying an iterative machine learning strategy to identify 400 putative PET-degrading enzymes (PET hydrolases) from naturally occurring homologs. Using high-throughput (HTP) experimental techniques, we successfully expressed and purified >200 enzyme candidates and assayed them for PET hydrolysis activity as a function of pH, temperature, and substrate crystallinity. From this library, we discovered 91 previously unknown PET hydrolases, 35 of which retain activity at pH 4.5 on crystalline material, which are conditions relevant to developing more efficient commercial processes. Notably, four enzymes showed equal to or higher activity than LCC-ICCG, a benchmark PET hydrolase, at this challenging condition in our screening assay, and 11 of which have pH optima <7. Using these data, we identified regions of PETases statistically correlated to activity at lower pH. We additionally investigated the effect of condition-specific activity data on trained machine learning predictors and found a precision (putative hit rate) improvement of up to 30% compared to a Hidden Markov Model alone. Our findings show that by pointing enzyme discovery toward conditions of interest with multiple rounds of experimental and machine learning, we can discover large sets of active enzymes and explore factors associated with activity at those conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗