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At least 307 records · Page 17

Gaussian membership functions are most adequate in representing uncertainty in measurements

In rare situations, like fundamental physics, we perform experiments without knowing what their results will be. In the majority of real-life measurement situations, we more or less know beforehand what kind of results we will get. Of course, this is not the precise knowledge of the type 'the result will be between alpha - beta and alpha + beta,' because in this case, we would not need any measurements at all. This is usually a knowledge that is best represented in uncertain terms, like 'perhaps (or 'most likely', etc.) the measured value x is between alpha - beta and alpha + beta.' Traditional statistical methods neglect this additional knowledge and process only the measurement results. So it is desirable to be able to process this uncertain knowledge as well. A natural way to process it is by using fuzzy logic. But, there is a problem; we can use different membership functions to represent the same uncertain statements, and different functions lead to different results. What membership function do we choose? In the present paper, we show that under some reasonable assumptions, Gaussian functions mu(x) = exp(-beta(x(exp 2))) are the most adequate choice of the membership functions for representing uncertainty in measurements. This representation was efficiently used in testing jet engines to airplanes and spaceships.

Kreinovich, V.↗

Minor/major element variation within and among diogenite and howardite orthopyroxenite groups

Diogenites are orthopyroxenites that may contain chromite and olivine as accessory minerals. Howardite breccias contain orthopyroxenite clasts with similar properties compared to monomict diogenites. We used statistical methods and variation plots of major and minor elements in orthopyroxene and chromite to show whether or not howardite orthopyroxenites are related to monomict diogenites, and to assess their petrogenesis. Our results fail to establish any evidence that monomict diogenites are significantly different from howardite orthopyroxenites in terms of major and minor elements. We also found no differences between Antarctic diogenites and non-Antarctic diogenites. Although element variation plots show compelling evidence that most diogenites originated by igneous fractionation, linear trends among the various diogenites and howardite orthopyroxenite clasts are either non-existent or ill-defined. This militates against an origin from a single magma body, but suggests an origin from multiple magma bodies in the parent planetoid.

Berkley, John L.↗

A review of crack propagation under unsteady loading

The theories and research current available on crack propagation under unsteady loadings, especially those of acoustic origin, are reviewed. Since the original theories on fatigue failure did not account for random loading conditions, modified theories which provide statistical methods for evaluating the random loading have emerged. The impact of acoustic fatigue in the aerospace industry, basic principles such as fatigue crack initiation and propagation and load interactions, and testing procedures are discussed. Attention is also given to metal and metal alloy structures, fiber-reinforced composites and nonmetallic structures, short crack growth, and the effects of temperature, moisture, and corrosion on structures. Suggestions for future research in this field are presented, namely, studies on the effect of 'snap-through' response and associated crack growth patterns, studies in microcrack and 'small crack'; propagation under unsteady loading conditions, and the development of an accurate analytical model to predict acceleration and retardation effects in fatigue crack growth under random loading conditions.

Bryan, H. H.↗

Sensor fusion III: 3-D perception and recognition; Proceedings of the Meeting, Boston, MA, Nov. 5-8, 1990

The volume on data fusion from multiple sources discusses fusing multiple views, temporal analysis and 3D motion interpretation, sensor fusion and eye-to-hand coordination, and integration in human shape perception. Attention is given to surface reconstruction, statistical methods in sensor fusion, fusing sensor data with environmental knowledge, computational models for sensor fusion, and evaluation and selection of sensor fusion techniques. Topics addressed include the structure of a scene from two and three projections, optical flow techniques for moving target detection, tactical sensor-based exploration in a robotic environment, and the fusion of human and machine skills for remote robotic operations. Also discussed are K-nearest-neighbor concepts for sensor fusion, surface reconstruction with discontinuities, a sensor-knowledge-command fusion paradigm for man-machine systems, coordinating sensing and local navigation, and terrain map matching using multisensing techniques for applications to autonomous vehicle navigation.

Schenker, Paul S.↗

The infeasibility of quantifying the reliability of life-critical real-time software

This paper affirms that the quantification of life-critical software reliability is infeasible using statistical methods, whether these methods are applied to standard software or fault-tolerant software. The classical methods of estimating reliability are shown to lead to exorbitant amounts of testing when applied to life-critical software. Reliability growth models are examined and also shown to be incapable of overcoming the need for excessive amounts of testing. The key assumption of software fault tolerance - separately programmed versions fail independently - is shown to be problematic. This assumption cannot be justified by experimentation in the ultrareliability region, and subjective arguments in its favor are not sufficiently strong to justify it as an axiom. Also, the implications of the recent multiversion software experiments support this affirmation.

Butler, Ricky W.↗

What determines the stellar mass functions in globular clusters?

We analyze the dependence of stellar mass function slopes for a sample of 17 globular clusters on a variety of cluster parameters. The principal novelty of our approach is the use of appropriate multivariate statistical methods to disentangle the complex situation which is present in this problem: the slopes depend simultaneously on more than one variable, and many cluster parameters are mutually correlated. We find that the mass function slopes in the range M/M(solar) = 0.5-0.8 are largely determined by the position in the Galaxy and to a lesser extent by the cluster metallicity. Clusters closer to the Galactic center or plane have shallower mass function slopes. At a given distance to the Galactic center, clusters closer to the Galactic plane have shallower mass function slopes. At a given R(GC) and/or Z(GP), more metal-rich clusters have shallower mass function slopes. Thus, the monovariate correlations with the position or metallicity are both correct, but only partial, and in terms of slopes, biased descriptions of the situation. We present trivariate least-squares solutions where the mass function slopes can be predicted within the measurement accuracy. This relation can serve as a powerful observational constraint for theories of globular cluster formation and evolution, and it is one of the tightest correlations between globular cluster properties now known.

Djorgovski, S.↗

Statistical Analysis of the Characteristics of Repeated Gusts in Turbulent Air

Statistical methods were applied to acceleration and airspeed data obtained with the XC-35 airplane during flights in turbulent air within convective clouds in order to determine the characteristics of repeated or closely spaced gusts pertinent to design problems. Results indicated that, in turbulent air within convective cloud, gusts tend to be contiguous and are seldom found isolated in space. Over-all average spacing between repeated gusts was in good agreement with twice the average gust-gradient distance of 10 chords used in present design.

AUTHORS (2)↗

Design optimization and probabilistic analysis of a hydrodynamic journal bearing

A nonlinear constrained optimization of a hydrodynamic bearing was performed yielding three main variables: radial clearance, bearing length to diameter ratio, and lubricating oil viscosity. As an objective function a combined model of temperature rise and oil supply has been adopted. The optimized model of the bearing has been simulated for population of 1000 cases using Monte Carlo statistical method. It appeared that the so called 'optimal solution' generated more than 50 percent of failed bearings, because their minimum oil film thickness violated stipulated minimum constraint value. As a remedy change of oil viscosity is suggested after several sensitivities of variables have been investigated.

Liniecki, Alexander G.↗

Studies of dynamical processes affecting the distribution of stratospheric ozone

The purpose of the research was to understand large-scale tracer transport processes in the stratosphere. Two approaches were taken. The first is analysis of tracer observations, especially satellite observations of ozone concentration and total column ozone. The second is numerical simulation of tracer transport processes. Topics researched include: quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and stratospheric ozone; mixing in the polar vortices; polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) properties from Antarctic lidar data; and statistical methods for numerical experiments.

Bowman, Kenneth P.↗

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples, volume 1

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 2: Software documentation

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes, These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 3: Structure and listing of programs

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

Detector noise statistics in the non-linear regime

The statistical behavior of an idealized linear detector in the presence of threshold and saturation levels is examined. It is assumed that the noise is governed by the statistical fluctuations in the number of photons emitted by the source during an exposure. Since physical detectors cannot have infinite dynamic range, our model illustrates that all devices have non-linear regimes, particularly at high count rates. The primary effect is a decrease in the statistical variance about the mean signal due to a portion of the expected noise distribution being removed via clipping. Higher order statistical moments are also examined, in particular, skewness and kurtosis. In principle, the expected distortion in the detector noise characteristics can be calibrated using flatfield observations with count rates matched to the observations. For this purpose, some basic statistical methods that utilize Fourier analysis techniques are described.

Shopbell, P. L.↗

Size effect in composite materials and structures: Basic concepts and design considerations

Composite materials display strength characteristics that are similar to those of brittle ceramics, whose strengths are known to decrease with increasing volume for a uniform state of stress (size effect) and also are dependent on stress distribution. These similarities raise the question of whether there is also a size effect in composite materials and structures. There is significant, but inconclusive experimental evidence for the existence of a size effect in composites. Macroscopic and micromechanical statistical models have been developed which predict a size effect and are in general agreement with experimental data. The existence of a significant size effect in composites would be of great importance. For example, it would mean that use of standard test coupons to establish design allowables for large structures could be very nonconservative. Further, it would be necessary to analyze the strength of large composite structures using statistical methods, as is done for ceramics.

Zweben, Carl↗

A strip chart recorder pattern recognition tool kit for Shuttle operations

During Space Shuttle operations, Mission Control personnel monitor numerous mission-critical systems such as electrical power; guidance, navigation, and control; and propulsion by means of paper strip chart recorders. For example, electrical power controllers monitor strip chart recorder pen traces to identify onboard electrical equipment activations and deactivations. Recent developments in pattern recognition technologies coupled with new capabilities that distribute real-time Shuttle telemetry data to engineering workstations make it possible to develop computer applications that perform some of the low-level monitoring now performed by controllers. The number of opportunities for such applications suggests a need to build a pattern recognition tool kit to reduce software development effort through software reuse. We are building pattern recognition applications while keeping such a tool kit in mind. We demonstrated the initial prototype application, which identifies electrical equipment activations, during three recent Shuttle flights. This prototype was developed to test the viability of the basic system architecture, to evaluate the performance of several pattern recognition techniques including those based on cross-correlation, neural networks, and statistical methods, to understand the interplay between an advanced automation application and human controllers to enhance utility, and to identify capabilities needed in a more general-purpose tool kit.

Hammen, David G.↗

Probability of detection of defects in coatings with electronic shearography

The goal of this research was to utilize statistical methods to evaluate the probability of detection (POD) of defects in coatings using electronic shearography. The coating system utilized in the POD studies was to be the paint system currently utilized on the external casings of the NASA Space Transportation System (STS) Revised Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) boosters. The population of samples was to be large enough to determine the minimum defect size for 90 percent probability of detection of 95 percent confidence POD on these coatings. Also, the best methods to excite coatings on aerospace components to induce deformations for measurement by electronic shearography were to be determined.

Maddux, Gary A.↗

Testing higher-order Lagrangian perturbation theory against numerical simulation. 1: Pancake models

We present results showing an improvement of the accuracy of perturbation theory as applied to cosmological structure formation for a useful range of quasi-linear scales. The Lagrangian theory of gravitational instability of an Einstein-de Sitter dust cosmogony investigated and solved up to the third order is compared with numerical simulations. In this paper we study the dynamics of pancake models as a first step. In previous work the accuracy of several analytical approximations for the modeling of large-scale structure in the mildly non-linear regime was analyzed in the same way, allowing for direct comparison of the accuracy of various approximations. In particular, the Zel'dovich approximation (hereafter ZA) as a subclass of the first-order Lagrangian perturbation solutions was found to provide an excellent approximation to the density field in the mildly non-linear regime (i.e. up to a linear r.m.s. density contrast of sigma is approximately 2). The performance of ZA in hierarchical clustering models can be greatly improved by truncating the initial power spectrum (smoothing the initial data). We here explore whether this approximation can be further improved with higher-order corrections in the displacement mapping from homogeneity. We study a single pancake model (truncated power-spectrum with power-spectrum with power-index n = -1) using cross-correlation statistics employed in previous work. We found that for all statistical methods used the higher-order corrections improve the results obtained for the first-order solution up to the stage when sigma (linear theory) is approximately 1. While this improvement can be seen for all spatial scales, later stages retain this feature only above a certain scale which is increasing with time. However, third-order is not much improvement over second-order at any stage. The total breakdown of the perturbation approach is observed at the stage, where sigma (linear theory) is approximately 2, which corresponds to the onset of hierarchical clustering. This success is found at a considerable higher non-linearity than is usual for perturbation theory. Whether a truncation of the initial power-spectrum in hierarchical models retains this improvement will be analyzed in a forthcoming work.

Buchert, T.↗