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At least 307 records · Page 17

Impacts of Stochastic Mixing in Idealized Convection-Permitting Simulations of Squall Lines

This study investigates impacts of altering subgrid-scale mixing in “convection-permitting” kilometer-scale horizontal-grid-spacing (Δ h ) simulations by applying either constant or stochastic multiplicative factors to the horizontal mixing coefficients within the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. In quasi-idealized 1-km Δ h simulations of two observationally based squall-line cases, constant enhanced mixing produces larger updraft cores that are more dilute at upper levels, weakens the cold pool, rear-inflow jet, and front-to-rear flow of the squall line, and degrades the model’s effective resolution. Reducing mixing by a constant multiplicative factor has the opposite effect on all metrics. Completely turning off parameterized horizontal mixing produces bulk updraft statistics and squall-line mesoscale structure closest to an LES “benchmark” among all 1-km simulations, although the updraft cores are too undilute. The stochastic mixing scheme, which applies a multiplicative factor to the mixing coefficients that varies stochastically in time and space, is employed at 0.5-, 1-, and 2-km Δ h . It generally reduces midlevel vertical velocities and enhances upper-level vertical velocities compared to simulations using the standard mixing scheme, with more substantial impacts at 1- and 2-km Δ h compared to 0.5-km Δ h . Further, the stochastic scheme also increases updraft dilution to better agree with the LES for one case, but has less impact on the other case. Stochastic mixing acts to weaken the cold pool but without a significant impact on squall-line propagation. It also does not affect the model’s overall effective resolution unlike applying constant multiplicative factors to the mixing coefficients.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Numerical modeling of a proof-of-principle experiment on optical stochastic cooling at an electron storage ring

Cooling of beams circulating in storage rings is critical for many applications including particle colliders and synchrotron light sources. A method enabling unprecedented beam-cooling rates, optical stochastic cooling (OSC), was recently demonstrated in the Integrable Optics Test Accelerator (IOTA) electron storage ring at Fermilab [J. Jarvis , ]. This paper describes the numerical implementation of the OSC process in the particle-tracking program and discusses the validation of the developed model with available experimental data. The model is also employed to highlight some features associated with different modes of operation of OSC. The developed simulation tool should be valuable in guiding future configurations of optical stochastic cooling and, more broadly, modeling self-field-based beam manipulations. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

On the character of turbulent-like flows in self-consistent models of core-collapse supernovae

Neutrino-driven convection plays a crucial role in the development of core-collapse supernova (CCSN) explosions. However, the complex mechanism that triggers the shock revival and the subsequent explosion has remained inscrutable for many decades. Multidimensional simulations suggest that the growth of fluid instabilities, especially development of convection, will determine the morphology of the explosion. We have performed 3D simulations using spherical-polar coordinates covering a reduced angular extent (90° computational domain), and with angular resolutions of 2°, 1°, 1/2°, and 1/4°, to study the development of turbulent-like flows in core-collapse supernova explosions on a time scale of order 100 ms. We have employed the multi-physics Chimera code that includes detailed nuclear physics and spectral neutrino transport. Coarse resolution models do not develop an inertial range, presumably due to the bottleneck effect, such that the energy is prevented from cascading down to small scales and tends to accumulate at large scales. High-resolution models instead, start to recover the k −5/3 scaling of Kolmogorov's theory. Stochasticity and few simulation samples limit our ability to predict the development of explosions. Over the simulated time period, our models show no clear trend in improving (or diminishing) conditions for explosion as the angular resolution is increased. However, we find that disordered flow provides an effective pressure, as characterized by the Reynolds stress, behind the shock. This contribution, ~40%–50% of the thermal pressure, aids shock revival and thus the development of the explosion. Finally, we show that the kinetic energy power spectrum of reduced angular extent and full 4π models are consistent, thus indicating that a 90° computational domain is an adequate configuration to study the character of turbulence in CCSNe.

Casanova Bustamante, Jordi↗

Probability Density Function Control for Stochastic Nonlinear Systems using Monte Carlo Simulation

This paper presents a fast implementation framework of output probability density function (PDF) control for a class of stochastic nonlinear systems which are subjected to non-Gaussian noises. The statistical properties of the system outputs can be adjusted by shaping the dynamic output probability density function to track the reference stochastic distribution. However, the dynamic probability density function evolution is very difficult to obtain analytically even if the system model and the stochastic distributions of the noises are known. Motivated by Monte Carlo simulation, the dynamic probability density function can be estimated by sampling data which forms the contribution of this paper. In particular, the sampling points are generated following the stochastic distribution of the noise for each instant. These points go through the system would generate the histogram for system outputs, then the dynamic model can be established based on the dynamic histogram which reflects the randomness and the nonlinear dynamics of the investigated system. Based on the established model, the output probability density function tracking can be achieved and the simulation results and discussions show the effectiveness and benefits of the presented framework.

Zhang, Qichun↗

Limitations of Bin and Bulk Microphysics in Reproducing the Observed Spatial Structure of Light Precipitation

Abstract Coarse-gridded atmospheric models often account for subgrid-scale variability by specifying probability distribution functions (PDFs) of process rate inputs such as cloud and rainwater mixing ratios ( q c and q r , respectively). PDF parameters can be obtained from numerous sources: in situ observations, ground- or space-based remote sensing, or fine-scale modeling such as large-eddy simulation (LES). LES is appealing to constrain PDFs because it generates large sample sizes, can simulate a variety of cloud regimes/case studies, and is not subject to the ambiguities of observations. However, despite the appeal of using model output for parameterization development, it has not been demonstrated that LES satisfactorily reproduces the observed spatial structure of microphysical fields. In this study, the structure of observed and modeled microphysical fields are compared by applying bifractal analysis, an approach that quantifies variability across spatial scales, to simulations of a drizzling stratocumulus field that span a range of domain sizes, drop concentrations (a proxy for mesoscale organization), and microphysics schemes (bulk and bin). Simulated q c closely matches observed estimates of bifractal parameters that measure smoothness and intermittency. There are major discrepancies between observed and simulated q r properties, though, with bulk simulated q r consistently displaying the bifractal properties of observed clouds (smooth, minimally intermittent) rather than rain while bin simulations produce q r that is appropriately intermittent but too smooth. These results suggest fundamental limitations of bulk and bin schemes to realistically represent higher-order statistics of the observed rain structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hybrid nested sampling algorithm for Bayesian model selection applied to inverse subsurface flow problems

A Hybrid Nested Sampling (HNS) algorithm is proposed for efficient Bayesian model calibration and prior model selection. The proposed algorithm combines, Nested Sampling (NS) algorithm, Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling and gradient estimation using Stochastic Ensemble Method (SEM). NS is an efficient sampling algorithm that can be used for Bayesian calibration and estimating the Bayesian evidence for prior model selection. Nested sampling has the advantage of computational feasibility. Within the nested sampling algorithm, a constrained sampling step is performed. For this step, we utilize HMC to reduce the correlation between successive sampled states. HMC relies on the gradient of the logarithm of the posterior distribution, which we estimate using a stochastic ensemble method based on an ensemble of directional derivatives. SEM only requires forward model runs and the simulator is then used as a black box and no adjoint code is needed. The developed HNS algorithm is successfully applied for Bayesian calibration and prior model selection of several nonlinear subsurface flow problems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Simulating dislocation loop internal dynamics and collective diffusion using stochastic differential equations

Nanoscale prismatic loops are modeled via a partial stochastic differential equation that describes an overdamped continuum elastic string, with a view to describing both the internal and collective dynamics of the loop as a function of temperature. Within the framework of the Langevin equation, expressions are derived that relate the empirical parameters of the model, the friction per unit length, and the elastic stiffness per unit length, to observables that can be obtained directly via molecular-dynamics simulations of interstitial or vacancy prismatic loop mobility. The resulting expressions naturally exhibit the properties that the collective diffusion coefficient of the loop (i) scales inversely with the square root of the number of interstitials, a feature that has been observed in both atomistic simulation and in situ TEM investigations of loop mobility, and (ii) the collective diffusion coefficient is not at all dependent on the internal interactions within the loop, thus qualitatively rationalizing past simulation results showing that the characteristic migration energy barrier is comparable to that of a single interstitial, and cluster migration is a result of individual (but correlated) interstitial activity.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Developing and Implementing the Data Mining Algorithms in RAVEN

The RAVEN code is becoming a comprehensive tool to perform probabilistic risk assessment, uncertainty quantification, and verification and validation. The RAVEN code is being developed to support many programs and to provide a set of methodologies and algorithms for advanced analysis. Scientific computer codes can generate enormous amounts of data. To post-process and analyze such data might, in some cases, take longer than the initial software runtime. Data mining algorithms/methods help in recognizing and understanding patterns in the data, and thus discover knowledge in databases. The methodologies used in the dynamic probabilistic risk assessment or in uncertainty and error quantification analysis couple system/physics codes with simulation controller codes, such as RAVEN. RAVEN introduces both deterministic and stochastic elements into the simulation while the system/physics code model the dynamics deterministically. A typical analysis is performed by sampling values of a set of parameter values. A major challenge in using dynamic probabilistic risk assessment or uncertainty and error quantification analysis for a complex system is to analyze the large number of scenarios generated. Data mining techniques are typically used to better organize and understand data, i.e. recognizing patterns in the data. This report focuses on development and implementation of Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) for different data mining algorithms, and the application of these algorithms to different databases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Internal cycle modeling and environmental assessment of multiple cycle consumer products

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Dynamic flow models are presented for remanufactured, reused or recycled products. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Early loss and stochastic return are included for fast and slow cycling products. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The reuse-to-input flow ratio (Internal Cycle Factor, ICF) is determined. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The cycle rate, which is increasing with the ICF, monitors eco-performance. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Early internal cycle losses diminish the ICF, the cycle rate and performance. - Abstract: Dynamic annual flow models incorporating consumer discard and usage loss and featuring deterministic and stochastic end-of-cycle (EOC) return by the consumer are developed for reused or remanufactured products (multiple cycle products, MCPs), including fast and slow cycling, short and long-lived products. It is shown that internal flows (reuse and overall consumption) increase proportionally to the dimensionless internal cycle factor (ICF) which is related to environmental impact reduction factors. The combined reuse/recycle (or cycle) rate is shown capable for shortcut, albeit effective, monitoring of environmental performance in terms of waste production, virgin material extraction and manufacturing impacts of all MCPs, a task, which physical variables (lifetime, cycling frequency, mean or total number of return trips) and conventional rates, via which environmental policy has been officially implemented (e.g. recycling rate) cannot accomplish. The cycle rate is shown to be an increasing (hyperbolic) function of ICF. The impact of the stochastic EOC return characteristics on total reuse and consumption flows, as well as on eco-performance, is assessed: symmetric EOC return has a small, positive effect on performance compared to deterministic, while early shifted EOC return is more beneficial. In order to be efficient, environmental policy should set higher minimum reuse targets for higher trippage MCPs. The results may serve for monitoring, flow accounting and comparative eco-assessment of MCPs. They may be useful in identifying reachable and efficient reuse/recycle targets for consumer products and in planning return via appropriate labelling and digital coding for enhancing environmental performance, while satisfying consumer demand.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Modeling of the Flows of Admixtures in a Random Layered Strip with Probable Arrangement of Inclusions Near the Boundaries of the Body

We study the random flow of admixtures in a two-phase stochastically inhomogeneous strip with the most probable arrangement of inclusions in the vicinity of the surfaces of the body. A mathematical model is formulated for the function of diffusion flow with nonzero constant initial concentration. A random diffusion flow is represented in the form of a Neumann series. The procedure of averaging of the random mass flow over the ensemble of phase configurations with arcsine distribution function is performed. The influence of the characteristics of the medium on the distribution of mass flow is analyzed. It is shown that if the diffusion coefficient of admixtures in the inclusion is higher than for the matrix, then the increase in the characteristic thickness of the layers causes a decrease in the value of the diffusion flow, whereas the mass flow in the entire body increases with the volume fraction of the inclusions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Efficient gradient estimation using finite differencing and likelihood ratios for kinetic Monte Carlo simulations

While many optimization and control methods for stochastic processes require gradient information from the process of interest, obtaining gradient information from experiments is prohibitively expensive and time-consuming. As a result, such information is often obtained from stochastic process simulations. Computing gradients efficiently and accurately from stochastic simulations is challenging, especially for simulations involving computationally expensive models with significant inherent noise. In this work, we analyze and characterize the applicability of two gradient estimation methods for kinetic Monte Carlo simulations: finite differencing and likelihood ratio. We developed a systematic method for choosing an optimal perturbation size for finite differencing and discuss, for both methods, important implementation issues such as scaling with respect to the number of elements in the gradient vector. Through a series of numerical experiments, the methods were compared across different time and size regimes to characterize the precision and accuracy associated with each method. We determined that the likelihood ratio method is appropriate for estimating gradients at short (transient) times or for systems with small population sizes, whereas finite differencing is better-suited for gradient estimation at long times (steady state) or for systems with large population sizes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A dynamic localization model with stochastic backscatter

The modeling of subgrid scales in large-eddy simulation (LES) has been rationalized by the introduction of the dynamic localization procedure. This method allows one to compute rather than prescribe the unknown coefficients in the subgrid-scale model. Formally, the LES equations are supposed to be obtained by applying to the Navier-Stokes equations a 'grid filter' operation. Though the subgrid stress itself is unknown, an identity between subgrid stresses generated by different filters has been derived. Although preliminary tests of the Dynamic Localization Model (DLM) with k-equation have been satisfactory, the use of a negative eddy viscosity to describe backscatter is probably a crude representation of the physics of reverse transfer of energy. Indeed, the model is fully deterministic. Knowing the filtered velocity field and the subgrid-scale energy, the subgrid stress is automatically determined. We know that the LES equations cannot be fully deterministic since the small scales are not resolved. This stems from an important distinction between equilibrium hydrodynamics and turbulence. In equilibrium hydrodynamics, the molecular motions are also not resolved. However, there is a clear separation of scale between these unresolved motions and the relevant hydrodynamic scales. The result of molecular motions can then be separated into an average effect (the molecular viscosity) and some fluctuations. Due to the large number of molecules present in a box with size of the order of the hydrodynamic scale, the ratio between fluctuations and the average effect should be very small (as a result of the 'law of large numbers'). For that reason, the hydrodynamic balance equations are usually purely deterministic. In turbulence, however, there is no clear separation of scale between small and large eddies. In that case, the fluctuations around a deterministic eddy viscosity term could be significant. An eddy noise would then appear through a stochastic term in the subgrid-scale model and could be the source of backscatter.

Carati, Daniele↗

Application of the GERTS II simulator in the industrial environment.

GERT was originally developed to aid in the analysis of stochastic networks. GERT can be used to graphically model and analyze complex systems. Recently a simulator model, GERTS II, has been developed to solve GERT Networks. The simulator language used in the development of this model was GASP II A. This paper discusses the possible application of GERTS II to model and analyze (1) assembly line operations, (2) project management networks, (3) conveyor systems and (4) inventory systems. Finally, an actual application dealing with a job shop loading problem is presented.

Whitehouse, G. E.↗

Weak Convergence of a Mass-Structured Individual-Based Model

We propose a model of chemostat where the bacterial population is individually-based, each bacterium is explicitly represented and has a mass evolving continuously over time. The substrate concentration is represented as a conventional ordinary differential equation. These two components are coupled with the bacterial consumption. Mechanisms acting on the bacteria are explicitly described (growth, division and washout). Bacteria interact via consumption. We set the exact Monte Carlo simulation algorithm of this model and its mathematical representation as a stochastic process. We prove the convergence of this process to the solution of an integro-differential equation when the population size tends to infinity. Finally, we propose several numerical simulations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Quantum dynamics simulations of the 2D spectroscopy for exciton polaritons

We develop an accurate and numerically efficient non-adiabatic path-integral approach to simulate the non-linear spectroscopy of exciton–polariton systems. This approach is based on the partial linearized density matrix approach to model the exciton dynamics with explicit propagation of the phonon bath environment, combined with a stochastic Lindblad dynamics approach to model the cavity loss dynamics. Through simulating both linear and polariton two-dimensional electronic spectra, we systematically investigate how light–matter coupling strength and cavity loss rate influence the optical response signal. Our results confirm the polaron decoupling effect, which is the reduced exciton–phonon coupling among polariton states due to the strong light–matter interactions. We further demonstrate that the polariton coherence time can be significantly prolonged compared to the electronic coherence outside the cavity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Clustering-Based Scenario Generation Framework for Power Market Simulation with Wind Integration

A critical step in stochastic optimization models of power system analysis is to select a set of appropriate scenarios and significant numbers of scenario generation methods exist in the literature. This paper develops a clustering based scenario generation method, which aims to improve the performance of existing scenario generation techniques by grouping a set of correlated wind sites into clusters according to their cross-correlations. Copula based models are utilized to model spatiotemporal correlations and the Gibbs sampling is then used to generate scenarios for day-ahead markets. Our results show that the generated scenarios based on clustered wind sites outperform existing approaches in terms of reliability and sharpness and can reduce the total computational time for scenario generation and reduction significantly. The clustering-based framework can therefore provide a better support for real-world market simulations with high wind penetration.

data visualization↗

Stochastic-Strength-Based Damage Simulation of Ceramic Matrix Composite Laminates

The Finite Element Analysis-Micromechanics Analysis Code/Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (FEAMAC/CARES) program was used to characterize and predict the progressive damage response of silicon-carbide-fiber-reinforced reaction-bonded silicon nitride matrix (SiC/RBSN) composite laminate tensile specimens. Studied were unidirectional laminates [0] (sub 8), [10] (sub 8), [45] (sub 8), and [90] (sub 8); cross-ply laminates [0 (sub 2) divided by 90 (sub 2),]s; angled-ply laminates [plus 45 (sub 2) divided by -45 (sub 2), ]s; doubled-edge-notched [0] (sub 8), laminates; and central-hole laminates. Results correlated well with the experimental data. This work was performed as a validation and benchmarking exercise of the FEAMAC/CARES program. FEAMAC/CARES simulates stochastic-based discrete-event progressive damage of ceramic matrix composite and polymer matrix composite material structures. It couples three software programs: (1) the Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC), (2) the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction Program (CARES/Life), and (3) the Abaqus finite element analysis program. MAC/GMC contributes multiscale modeling capabilities and micromechanics relations to determine stresses and deformations at the microscale of the composite material repeating-unit-cell (RUC). CARES/Life contributes statistical multiaxial failure criteria that can be applied to the individual brittle-material constituents of the RUC, and Abaqus is used to model the overall composite structure. For each FEAMAC/CARES simulation trial, the stochastic nature of brittle material strength results in random, discrete damage events that incrementally progress until ultimate structural failure.

composite structures↗

Understanding Variability in Mechanical Behavior of Adhesively Bonded Sandwich Joints due to Stochastic Material Damage

A mesoscale progressive damage analysis was applied to the analysis of recently tested adhesively bonded sandwich panels, in which ten nominally identical tension loaded panels failed in three different failure modes, with peakloads ranging from 13.0 –16.1 kips. A parametric finite element model for progressive damage analysis of an adhesively bonded joint (ABJ) considering matrix and fiber damage, and delamination cracks in unidirectional and fabric composite sections of the joint, as well as core crushing, and adhesive fracture was developed. The model was developed using Abaqus/Explicit and utilized continuum damage mechanics material models for intralaminar damage in the facesheet and doubler plies, cohesive elements for delamination and adhesive debonding, and discretized cells considering plasticity to model crushing of the aluminum honeycomb core. Analysis predictions obtained with a pristine model agreed well with the average experimental peak load, strain in the joint, and post-test damage states. Then, various methods to incorporate stochastic material variability into ABJ model were evaluated. These methods included simulation of pre-existing matrix damage, pre-existing adhesive porosity, and uniform modification of adhesive properties. These material and manufacturing defects changed the damage mode predictions in some cases. The analysis of stochastic strength due to the considered defects revealed unintuitive damage mode interaction in the ABJ, explaining some structure-property relationships observed experimentally.

Richard Larson↗