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NASA NTRS2018

Projecting Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Actual Evapotranspiration for the Narmada River Basin in Central India in the Future

Assessment of actual evapotranspiration (ET) is essential as it controls the exchange of water and heat energy between the atmosphere and land surface. ET also influences the available water resources and assists in the crop water assessment in agricultural areas. This study involves the assessment of spatial distribution of seasonal and annual ET using Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) and provides an estimation of future changes in ET due to land use and climate change for a portion of the Narmada river basin in Central India. Climate change effects on future ET are assessed using the ACCESS1-0 model of CMIP5. A Markov Chain model estimated future land use based on the probability of changes in the past. The ET analysis is carried out for the years 2009-2011. The results indicate variation in the seasonal ET with the changed land use. High ET is observed over forest areas and crop lands, but ET decreases over crop lands after harvest. The overall annual ET is high over water bodies and forest areas. ET is high in the premonsoon season over the water bodies and decreases in the winter. Future ET in the 2020s, 2030s, 2040s, and 2050s is shown with respect to land use and climate changes that project a gradual decrease due to the constant removal of the forest areas. The lowest ET is projected in 2050. Individual impact of land use change projects decreases in ET from 1990 to 2050, while climate change effect projects increases in ET in the future due to rises in temperature. However, the combined impacts of land use and climate changes indicate a decrease in ET in the future.

Kundu, Sananda↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Deciphering Extreme Mineral Records; Microstructural Phase Heritage of Shocked Materials

High-pressure minerals such as coesite, stishovite, and reidite are often used as indicators of shock metamorphism. However, high-pressure and high-temperature phases are metastable at ambient conditions and, therefore, often revert to a more energetically favorable phase. During solid-state transformations, the crystallographic orientations of the stable polymorph are controlled by the transformation pathway from the parent. Microstructural orientation analysis using electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) of the stable phase can reveal systematic intercrystalline orientation relationships (OR) diagnostic of solid-state transformations from these high-pressure or high-temperature polymorph phases (Cayron et al., 2006). Knowledge of polymorph stability fields for a given system can thus be used to infer minimum shock P and/or T conditions that rocks have experienced, which are otherwise unavailable using traditional thermobarometers such as element partition coefficients. Using orientation relationships to infer the former presence of mineral phases has been termed microstructural “phase heritage”, and has successfully been used to probe for evidence of extreme pressures and temperatures resulting from hypervelocity impacts. The reconstruction of polymorphs of ZrSiO4 (zircon, reidite) and ZrO2 (baddeleyite) have further elucidated the behavior of these phases under hypervelocity impact conditions (Timms et al., 2017a; White et al., 2018), and OR analysis of shocked monazite has identified a previously unrecognized tetragonal high-P polymorph (Erickson et al., 2019). Zircon will convert to the low tetragonal polymorph reidite at shock stresses above ~21 GPa. However, upon decompression at temperatures above 1200 °C reidite will revert to zircon (Kusaba et al., 1985). Recrystallized zircon neoblasts encased in impact melt often show systematic misorientation relationships of 90° about <110> indicative of reversion from the reidite (Fig. 1), and preserving cryptic evidence of the high-P history that is often erased by the post shock thermal spike (Cavosie et al., 2016). Microstructural OR analysis of a dissociated zircon corona composed of baddeleyite (monoclinic-ZrO2) has identified the former presence of cubic zirconia within impact melt glass from the Mistastin Lake impact structure, Labrador, CA. Based on stability fields in the ZrO2-SiO2 binary phase diagram, cubic zirconia records thermal conditions in excess of 2370 °C at ambient P, indicating that the Mistastin impact melt is the hottest rock identified on Earth’s surface (Timms et al., 2017b). Shock-deformed monazite (monoclinic La,Ce,ThPO4) containing lamellae comprised of interlocking laths has been identified from the Haughton Dome impact structure, Nunavut, Canada and Nördlinger-Ries Crater, southern Germany. The lath-structured lamellae are composed of four systematic orientation variants, which OR analyses indicate originate from a tetragonal parent whereby the [010]monoclinic aligns with either [100] or [010]tetragonal (Erickson et al., 2019). These results highlight utility of microstructural phase heritage analyses for the identification of unstable high-P or high-T polymorphs that uniquely record the extremely transient shock conditions produced by hypervelocity impacts.

Timmons Erickson↗

NASA NTRS2008

Data Assimilation Experiments using Quality Controlled AIRS Version 5 Temperature Soundings

The AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm has been finalized and is now operational at the Goddard DAAC in the processing (and reprocessing) of all AIRS data. The AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm contains two significant improvements over Version 4: 1) Improved physics allows for use of AIRS observations in the entire 4.3 pm C02 absorption band in the retrieval of temperature profile T(p) during both day and night. Tropospheric sounding 15 pm C02 observations are now used primarily in the generation of cloud cleared radiances Ri. This approach allows for the generation of accurate values of Ri and T(p) under most cloud conditions. 2) Another very significant improvement in Version 5 is the ability to generate accurate case-by-case, level-by-level error estimates for the atmospheric temperature profile, as well as for channel-by- channel error estimates for Ri. These error estimates are used for quality control of the retrieved products. We have conducted forecast impact experiments assimilating AIRS temperature profiles with different levels of quality control using the NASA GEOS-5 data assimilation system. Assimilation of quality controlled T(p) resulted in significantly improved forecast skill compared to that obtained from analyses obtained when all data used operationally by NCEP, except for AIRS data, is assimilated. We also conducted an experiment assimilating AIRS radiances uncontaminated by clouds, as done Operationally by ECMWF and NCEP. Forecasts resulting from assimilated AIRS radiances were of poorer quality than those obtained assimilating AIRS temperatures.

SUsskind, Joel↗

NASA NTRS2003

Superior Ballistic Impact Resistance Achieved by the Co-Base Alloy Haynes 25

The fan case in a jet engine is required to contain a fan blade in the rare event of a blade loss during operation. Because of its function, the fan case is the largest structural component in high-bypass-ratio turbofan engines used in commercial aircraft. Therefore, the use of lighter and stronger materials would be advantageous in most engines and is practically a necessity in the latest generation of high-bypass engines. Small panels, 7 in. wide by 7 in. long, of a number of metallic alloys were impact tested at room temperature with a 0.50-caliber blunt-nose titanium alloy projectile at the NASA Glenn Research Center (ref. 1). These metallic systems included several high-strength aluminum (Al) alloys, Al-based laminates, aluminum metal matrix composites (Al-MMCs), nickel-base superalloys (Inconel 718 and 625), several titanium (Ti) alloys in different heat treated conditions, 304L stainless steel, a stainless-steel-based laminate, and a high strength steel (Nitronic 60). It was determined that a simple Co-base alloy (Haynes 25) had the best impact resistance on an areal weight basis. Haynes 25 was at least 10 percent better than IMI 550, the best titanium alloy tested to date, and it was far superior to other metals, especially at higher impact velocities (greater than 1100 ft/sec). Because this material could be ideal for fan containment applications in supersonic aircraft as a replacement for titanium, impact tests were also conducted at 371 oC and compared with results from alloys tested at elevated temperature under previous programs (i.e., Inconel 718, Ti-6242, M-152, Timetal 21S, and Aeromet 100). Although cobalt-base alloys are used in some high-temperature engine applications, to our knowledge they are not used in any containment systems. Advantages of cobalt over titanium include lower cost, easier processing, better high-temperature strength, and no fire hazard if tip rub occurs. Future plans include testing of lightweight sandwich panels with Haynes 25 as a core material in the form of a foam or lattice block structure and scaling up the current tests by using blade-simulating projectiles impacting large plates and half rings.

Hebsur, Mohan G.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Improving Forecast Skill by Assimilation of Quality Controlled AIRS Version 5 Temperature Soundings

The AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm has been finalized and is now operational at the Goddard DAAC in the processing (and reprocessing) of all AIRS data. The AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm contains two significant improvements over Version 4: 1) Improved physics allows for use of AIRS observations in the entire 4.3 micron CO2 absorption band in the retrieval of temperature profile T(p) during both day and night. Tropospheric sounding 15 micron CO2 observations are now used primarily in the generation of cloud cleared radiances R(sub i). This approach allows for the generation of accurate values of R(sub i) and T(p) under most cloud conditions. 2) Another very significant improvement in Version 5 is the ability to generate accurate case-by-case, level-by-level error estimates for the atmospheric temperature profile, as well as for channel-by-channel error estimates for R(sub i). These error estimates are used for Quality Control of the retrieved products. We have conducted forecast impact experiments assimilating AIRS temperature profiles with different levels of Quality Control using the NASA GEOS-5 data assimilation system. Assimilation of Quality Controlled T(p) resulted in significantly improved forecast skill compared to that obtained from analyses obtained when all data used operationally by NCEP, except for AIRS data, is assimilated. We also conducted an experiment assimilating AIRS radiances uncontaminated by clouds, as done operationally by ECMWF and NCEP. Forecast resulting from assimilated AIRS radiances were of poorer quality than those obtained assimilating AIRS temperatures.

Susskind, Joel↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Impact of Devegetated Dune Fields on North American Climate During the Late Medieval Climate Anomaly

During the Medieval Climate Anomaly, North America experienced severe droughts and widespread mobilization of dune fields that persisted for decades. We use an atmosphere general circulation model, forced by a tropical Pacific sea surface temperature reconstruction and changes in the land surface consistent with estimates of dune mobilization (conceptualized as partial devegetation), to investigate whether the devegetation could have exacerbated the medieval droughts. Presence of devegetated dunes in the model significantly increases surface temperatures, but has little impact on precipitation or drought severity, as defined by either the Palmer Drought Severity Index or the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration. Results are similar to recent studies of the 1930s Dust Bowl drought, suggesting bare soil associated with the dunes, in and of itself, is not sufficient to amplify droughts over North America.

Cook, B. I.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Selection of a Representative Subset of Global Climate Models that Captures the Profile of Regional Changes for Integrated Climate Impacts Assessment

We present the Representative Temperature and Precipitation (T&P) GCM Subsetting Approach developed within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to select a practical subset of global climate models (GCMs) for regional integrated assessment of climate impacts when resource limitations do not permit the full ensemble of GCMs to be evaluated given the need to also focus on impacts sector and economics models. Subsetting inherently leads to a loss of information but can free up resources to explore important uncertainties in the integrated assessment that would otherwise be prohibitive. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach identifies five individual GCMs that capture a profile of the full ensemble of temperature and precipitation change within the growing season while maintaining information about the probability that basic classes of climate changes (relatively cool/wet, cool/dry, middle, hot/wet, and hot/dry) are projected in the full GCM ensemble. We demonstrate the selection methodology for maize impacts in Ames, Iowa, and discuss limitations and situations when additional information may be required to select representative GCMs. We then classify 29 GCMs over all land areas to identify regions and seasons with characteristic diagonal skewness related to surface moisture as well as extreme skewness connected to snow-albedo feedbacks and GCM uncertainty. Finally, we employ this basic approach to recognize that GCM projections demonstrate coherence across space, time, and greenhouse gas concentration pathway. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach provides a quantitative basis for the determination of useful GCM subsets, provides a practical and coherent approach where previous assessments selected solely on availability of scenarios, and may be extended for application to a range of scales and sectoral impacts.

Climate Change; GCMs; Climate Model Subset; Repres↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Impact of Interactive Ocean Dynamics on Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Variability

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Olivia Gozdz↗

NASA NTRS1977

Effect of temperature on composite sandwich structures subjected to low velocity impact

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Sharma, A. V.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Impact of interannual variability (1979-1986) of transport and temperature on ozone as computed using a two-dimensional photochemical model

Values of the monthly mean heating rates and the residual circulation characteristics were calculated using NMC data for temperature and the solar backscattered UV ozone for the period between 1979 and 1986. The results were used in a two-dimensional photochemical model in order to examine the effects of temperature and residual circulation on the interannual variability of ozone. It was found that the calculated total ozone was more sensitive to variations in interannual residual circulation than in the interannual temperature. The magnitude of the modeled ozone variability was found to be similar to the observed variability, but the observed and modeled year-to-year deviations were, for the most part, uncorrelated, due to the fact that the model did not account for most of the QBO forcing and for some of the observed tropospheric changes.

Jackman, Charles H.↗

NASA NTRS1992

The thermal stability of water ice at the poles of Mercury

Recent radar observations of Mercury have revealed the presence of anomalous radar reflectivity and polarization features near its north and south poles. Thermal model calculations show that, despite Mercury's proximity to the sun, the temperatures of flat, low-reflectivity surfaces at Mercury's poles are not expected to exceed 167 kelvin. The locations of the anomalous polar radar features appear to be correlated with the locations of large, high-latitude impact craters. Maximum surface temperatures in the permanently shadowed regions of these craters are expected to be significantly colder, as low as 60 kelvin in the largest craters. These results are consistent with the presence of water ice, because at temperatures lower than 112 kelvin, water ice should be stable to evaporation over time scales of billions of years.

Paige, David A.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Cryogenic wind tunnels: Problems of continuous operation at low temperatures

The design of a cryogenic wind tunnel which operates continuously, and is capable of attaining transonic speeds at generating pressures of about 3 bars is described. Its stainless steel construction with inside insulation allows for very rapid temperature variations promoted by rapid changes in the liquid nitrogen flow. A comparative study of temperature measuring probes shows a good reliability of thin sheet thermocouples. To measure fluctuations, only a cold wire makes it possible to record frequencies of about 300 Hz. The use of an integral computer method makes it possible to determine the impact of the wall temperature ratio to the adiabatic wall temperature for the various parameters characterizing the boundary layer. These cases are processed with positive and negative pressure gradients.

Faulmann, D.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Development of impact resistant boron/aluminum composites for turbojet engine fan blades

Composite fabrication was performed by vacuum press diffusion bonding by both the foil-filament array and preconsolidated monotape methods. The effect of matrix material, fiber diameter, matrix enhancement, fiber volume reinforcement, test temperature, angle-plying, notch, impact orientation, processing variables and fabrication methods on tensile strength and Charpy impact resistance are evaluated. Root attachment concepts, were evaluated by room and elevated temperature tensile testing, as well as by pendulum-Izod and ballistic impact testing. Composite resistance to foreign object damage was also evaluated by ballistic impacting of panels using projectiles of gelatin, RTV rubber and steel at various velocities, and impingement angles. A significant improvement in the pendulum impact resistance of B-Al composites was achieved.

Melnyk, P.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub‐Saharan Africa

Smallholder farmers in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low‐input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO2], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi‐arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and hot semi‐arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in‐season soil water content from 2‐year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (i) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO2], (ii) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall and (iii) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model inter-comparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation practices across SSA, because the impact of climate change will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with more mineral fertilizer.

Crop simulation model↗

NASA NTRS1995

A conceptual thermal design study of an electronically scanned thinned array radiometer

This report describes conceptual thermal design study for an Electronically Scanned Thinned Array Radiometer (ESTAR). ESTAR is an instrument concept for the measurement of soil moisture from space using synthetic aperture radiometry. The thermal design goal is to minimize the orbital temperature variation of the radiometer receivers using established materials and techniques. Two design approaches have been investigated; the first uses the waveguide as a heat sink, and the second uses a nadir facing radiator on the receiver assembly. The second approach minimizes the receiver's impact on the waveguide temperatures. Predicted temperatures for all receivers are presented for the two cases indicating the transient thermal environments the receivers would experience during an orbit. In addition, the effects of the receiver heat dissipation on the waveguide temperatures are shown.

Gould, D. C.↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Use of Red Green Blue Air Mass Imagery to Investigate the Role of Stratospheric Air in a Non-convective Wind Event

Non-convective wind events commonly occur with passing extratropical cyclones and have significant societal and economic impacts. Since non-convective winds often occur in the absence of specific phenomena such as a thunderstorm, tornado, or hurricane, the public are less likely to heed high wind warnings and continue daily activities. Thus non-convective wind events result in as many fatalities as straight line thunderstorm winds. One physical explanation for non-convective winds includes tropopause folds. Improved model representation of stratospheric air and associated non-convective wind events could improve non-convective wind forecasts and associated warnings. In recent years, satellite data assimilation has improved skill in forecasting extratropical cyclones; however errors still remain in forecasting the position and strength of extratropical cyclones as well as the tropopause folding process. The goal of this study is to determine the impact of assimilating satellite temperature and moisture retrieved profiles from hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders (i.e. Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite (CrIMSS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)) on the model representation of the tropopause fold and an associated high wind event that impacted the Northeast United States on 09 February 2013. Model simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW) were conducted on a 12-km grid with cycled data assimilation mimicking the operational North American Model (NAM). The results from the satellite assimilation run are compared to a control experiment (without hyperspectral IR retrievals), Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis, and Rapid Refresh analyses.

Berndt, E. B.↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Impact of the Assimilation of Hyperspectral Infrared Retrieved Profiles on Advanced Weather and Research Model Simulations of a Non-Convective Wind Event

Berndt, Emily↗

NASA NTRS2013

Impact of the Assimilation of Hyperspectral Infrared Profiles on Advanced Weather and Research Model Simulations of a Non-Convective Wind Event

Non-convective wind events commonly occur with passing extratropical cyclones and have significant societal and economic impacts. Since non-convective winds often occur in the absence of specific phenomena such as a thunderstorm, tornado, or hurricane, the public are less likely to heed high wind warnings and continue daily activities. Thus non-convective wind events result in as many fatalities as straight line thunderstorm winds. One physical explanation for non-convective winds includes tropopause folds. Improved model representation of stratospheric air and associated non-convective wind events could improve non-convective wind forecasts and associated warnings. In recent years, satellite data assimilation has improved skill in forecasting extratropical cyclones; however errors still remain in forecasting the position and strength of extratropical cyclones as well as the tropopause folding process. The goal of this study is to determine the impact of assimilating satellite temperature and moisture retrieved profiles from hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders (i.e. Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite (CrIMSS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)) on the model representation of the tropopause fold and an associated high wind event that impacted the Northeast United States on 09 February 2013. Model simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW) were conducted on a 12-km grid with cycled data assimilation mimicking the operational North American Model (NAM). The results from the satellite assimilation run are compared to a control experiment (without hyperspectral IR retrievals), North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) reanalysis, and Rapid Refresh analyses.

Berndt, Emily B.↗