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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Integrated Model of Models for Global Flood Alerting

A dramatic increase in frequency of minor to major flooding since 2000 has caused significant economic losses across the world. To mitigate and recover from these losses, actions have been taken to build resilient communities and infrastructures, specifically, by providing situational awareness in near real-time about flood impacts to enhance response and recovery efforts. Several hydrologic and hydraulic flood models are available at various spatial and temporal resolutions to forecast flood events at regional to global scale. Given the global coverage of two operational flood models – GloFAS (Global Flood Awareness System) and GFMS (Global Flood Monitoring System), the purpose of this project is to implement a Model of Models (MoM) approach to integrate the outputs from these two models to classify flood severity at watershed level worldwide, and send alerts based on severity similar to the USGS PAGER (used for severity alerting and impact analysis for earthquakes) to flood impacted communities. The alerts containing flood impacts and severity information will be disseminated through the DisasterAWARE platform, operated by the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC), that provides global multi-hazard alerting and Situational Awareness information to the emergency management community and public. The current version of the MoM approach was implemented for a case study flood event that occurred during January and February of 2020 in South and Central Africa. The findings of the case study event reveal that the approach is effective in identifying potential flood impact areas and the spatio-temporal variation of flood severity, flood depth and extent at watershed level, which will be used to assess infrastructure and societal impacts using earth-observation data and for alerting.

Kar, Bandana↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Effect of Physically Based Ice Radiative Processes on Greenland Ice Sheet Albedo and Surface Mass Balance in E3SM

Abstract A significant portion of surface melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is due to dark ice regions in the ablation zone, where solar absorption is influenced by the physical properties of the ice, light absorbing constituents (LACs), and the overlying crustal surface or melt ponds. Earth system models (ESMs) typically prescribe the albedo of ice surfaces as a constant value in the visible and near‐infrared spectral regions. This work advances ESM ice radiative transfer modeling by (a) incorporating a physically based radiative transfer model (SNow, ICe and Aerosol Radiation model Adding‐Doubling Version 4; SNICAR‐ADv4) into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), (b) determining spatially and temporally varying bare ice physical properties over the GrIS ablation zone from satellite observations to inform SNICAR‐ADv4, and (c) assessing the impacts on simulated GrIS albedo and surface mass balance associated with modeling of more realistic bare ice albedo. GrIS‐wide bare ice albedo in E3SMv2 is overestimated by ∼4% in the visible and ∼7% in the near‐infrared wavelengths compared to the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer. Our bare ice physical property retrieval method found that LACs, ice crustal surfaces, and melt ponds reduce visible albedo by 30% in the bare ice region of the GrIS ablation zone. The realistic bare ice albedo reduces surface mass balance by ∼145 Gt, or 0.4 mm of sea‐level equivalent between 2000 and 2021 compared to the default E3SM. This work highlights the importance of simulating bare ice albedo accurately and realistically to improve our ability to quantify changes in the GrIS surface mass and radiative energy budgets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

KGML-ag: a modeling framework of knowledge-guided machine learning to simulate agroecosystems: a case study of estimating N<sub>2</sub>O emission using data from mesocosm experiments

Abstract. Agricultural nitrous oxide (N2O) emission accounts for a non-trivial fraction of global greenhouse gas (GHG) budget. To date, estimating N2O fluxes from cropland remains a challenging task because the related microbial processes (e.g., nitrification and denitrification) are controlled by complex interactions among climate, soil, plant and human activities. Existing approaches such as process-based (PB) models have well-known limitations due to insufficient representations of the processes or uncertainties of model parameters, and due to leverage recent advances in machine learning (ML) a new method is needed to unlock the “black box” to overcome its limitations such as low interpretability, out-of-sample failure and massive data demand. In this study, we developed a first-of-its-kind knowledge-guided machine learning model for agroecosystems (KGML-ag) by incorporating biogeophysical and chemical domain knowledge from an advanced PB model, ecosys, and tested it by comparing simulating daily N2O fluxes with real observed data from mesocosm experiments. The gated recurrent unit (GRU) was used as the basis to build the model structure. To optimize the model performance, we have investigated a range of ideas, including (1) using initial values of intermediate variables (IMVs) instead of time series as model input to reduce data demand; (2) building hierarchical structures to explicitly estimate IMVs for further N2O prediction; (3) using multi-task learning to balance the simultaneous training on multiple variables; and (4) pre-training with millions of synthetic data generated from ecosys and fine-tuning with mesocosm observations. Six other pure ML models were developed using the same mesocosm data to serve as the benchmark for the KGML-ag model. Results show that KGML-ag did an excellent job in reproducing the mesocosm N2O fluxes (overall r2=0.81, and RMSE=3.6 mgNm-2d-1 from cross validation). Importantly, KGML-ag always outperforms the PB model and ML models in predicting N2O fluxes, especially for complex temporal dynamics and emission peaks. Besides, KGML-ag goes beyond the pure ML models by providing more interpretable predictions as well as pinpointing desired new knowledge and data to further empower the current KGML-ag. We believe the KGML-ag development in this study will stimulate a new body of research on interpretable ML for biogeochemistry and other related geoscience processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Pattern formation in a coupled membrane-bulk reaction-diffusion model for intracellular polarization and oscillations

Reaction-diffusion systems have been widely used to study spatio-temporal phenomena in cell biology, such as cell polarization. Coupled bulk-surface models naturally include compartmentalization of cytosolic and membrane-bound polarity molecules. Here we study the distribution of the polarity protein Cdc42 in a mass-conserved membrane-bulk model, and explore the effects of diffusion and spatial dimensionality on spatio-temporal pattern formation. We first analyze a one-dimensional (1-D) model for Cdc42 oscillations in fission yeast, consisting of two diffusion equations in the bulk domain coupled to nonlinear ODEs for binding kinetics at each end of the cell. In 1-D, our analysis reveals the existence of symmetric and asymmetric steady states, as well as anti-phase relaxation oscillations typical of slow-fast systems. We then extend our analysis to a two-dimensional (2-D) model with circular bulk geometry, for which species can either diffuse inside the cell or become bound to the membrane and undergo a nonlinear reaction-diffusion process. We also consider a nonlocal system of PDEs approximating the dynamics of the 2-D membrane-bulk model in the limit of fast bulk diffusion. In all three model variants we find that mass conservation selects perturbations of spatial modes that simply redistribute mass. In 1-D, only anti-phase oscillations between the two ends of the cell can occur, and in-phase oscillations are excluded. In higher dimensions, no radially symmetric oscillations are observed. Instead, the only instabilities are symmetry-breaking, either corresponding to stationary Turing instabilities, leading to the formation of stationary patterns, or to oscillatory Turing instabilities, leading to traveling and standing waves. Codimension-two Bogdanov—Takens bifurcations occur when the two distinct instabilities coincide, causing traveling waves to slow down and to eventually become stationary patterns. Our work clarifies the effect of geometry and dimensionality on behaviors observed in ma.ss-conserved cell polarity models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Safe Deep Reinforcement Learning for Active Distribution System Model Predictive Control with EVs and DERs

The temporal and spatial mismatch between PV generation and electric vehicle (EV) charging and discharging may cause voltage violations in active distribution networks. Despite the widespread use of deep reinforcement learning (DRL) in power system optimization and control, it lacks guarantees on constraint satisfaction during both training and deployment. This paper proposes a Lagrangian-based safe DRL approach for model predictive control (MPC) of active distribution systems with large-scale integration of PVs, EVs, and energy storage systems (ESSs). A Transformer-LSTM time-series model is proposed to forecast EV charging demand, which is then formulated as a constraint to ensure charging requirements are met. Using this prediction, a Lagrangian-based safe soft actor-critic (SAC) framework is developed for real-time control in a three-phase unbalanced distribution system, enforcing voltage safety constraints while optimizing the cumulative net reward. By integrating the forecasting model with multi-period constraints, the proposed framework jointly coordinates PV systems, EV charging and discharging, and ESS scheduling within the MPC horizon. Numerical experiments on a modified IEEE 123-bus system with real-world data show that, under a high PV penetration scenario, the proposed method increases the net reward by 30.74% and reduces average voltage violations from 0.0011 p.u. to 0.0002 p.u. compared with standard SAC. Compared with the optimal power flow (OPF) approach, it achieves similar voltage security while yielding lower line losses. It also maintains real-time control capability, reducing operation latency to 53.21 ms per 15-minute control interval. The proposed method remains effective under varying PV/EV penetrations and load conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

ITeM: Independent temporal motifs to summarize and compare temporal networks

We report networks are a fundamental and flexible way of representing various complex systems. Many domains such as communication, citation, procurement, biology, social media, and transportation can be modeled as a set of entities and their relationships. Temporal networks are a specialization of general networks where every relationship occurs at a discrete time. The temporal evolution of such networks is as important to understand as the structure of the entities and relationships. We present the Independent Temporal Motif (ITeM) to characterize temporal graphs from different domains. ITeMs can be used to model the structure and the evolution of the graph. In contrast to existing work, ITeMs are edge-disjoint directed motifs that measure the temporal evolution of ordered edges within the motif. For a given temporal graph, we produce a feature vector of ITeM frequencies and the time it takes to form the ITeM instances. We apply this distribution to measure the similarity of temporal graphs. We show that ITeM has higher accuracy than other motif frequency-based approaches. We define various ITeM-based metrics that reveal salient properties of a temporal network. We also present importance sampling as a method to efficiently estimate the ITeM counts. We present a distributed implementation of the ITeM discovery algorithm using Apache Spark and GraphFrame. We evaluate our approach on both synthetic and real temporal networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simultaneous Decomposition and Dewetting of Nanoscale Alloys: A Comparison of Experiment and Theory

In this work, we consider the coupled process of phase separation and dewetting of metal alloys of nanoscale thickness deposited on solid substrates. The experiments involve applying nanosecond laser pulses that melt the Ag40Ni60 alloy films in two setups: either on thin supporting membranes or on bulk substrates. These two setups allow for extracting both temporal and spatial scales on which the considered processes occur. The theoretical model involves a longwave version of the Cahn–Hilliard formulation used to describe spinodal decomposition, coupled with an asymptotically consistent longwave-based description of dewetting that occurs due to destabilizing interactions between the alloy and the substrate, modeled using the disjoining pressure approach. Careful modeling, combined with linear stability analysis and fully nonlinear simulations, leads to results consistent with the experiments. In particular, we find that the two instability mechanisms occur concurrently, with the phase separation occurring faster and on shorter temporal scales. The modeling results show a strong influence of the temperature dependence of relevant material properties, implying that such a dependence is crucial for the understanding of the experimental findings. The agreement between theory and experiment suggests the utility of the proposed theoretical approach in helping to develop further experiments directed toward formation of metallic alloy nanoparticles of desired properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Ensemble Score Filter for Tracking High-Dimensional Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

We propose an ensemble score filter (EnSF) for solving high-dimensional nonlinear filtering problems with superior accuracy. A major drawback of existing filtering methods, e.g., particle filters or ensemble Kalman filters, is the low accuracy in handling high-dimensional and highly nonlinear problems. EnSF attacks this challenge by exploiting the score-based diffusion model, defined in a pseudo-temporal domain, to characterizing the evolution of the filtering density. EnSF stores the information of the recursively updated filtering density function in the score function, in stead of storing the information in a set of finite Monte Carlo samples (used in particle filters and ensemble Kalman filters). Unlike existing diffusion models that train neural networks to approximate the score function, we develop a training-free score estimation that uses mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimator to directly approximate the score function at any pseudo-spatial-temporal location, which provides sufficient accuracy in solving high-dimensional nonlinear problems as well as saves tremendous amount of time spent on training neural networks. Another essential aspect of EnSF is its analytical update step, gradually incorporating data information into the score function, which is crucial in mitigating the degeneracy issue faced when dealing with very high-dimensional nonlinear filtering problems. High-dimensional Lorenz systems are used to demonstrate the performance of our method. EnSF provides surprisingly impressive performance in reliably tracking extremely high-dimensional Lorenz systems (up to 1,000,000 dimension) with highly nonlinear observation processes, which is a well-known challenging problem for existing filtering methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

The impact of demographic, clinical, genetic, and imaging variables on tau PET status

Purpose: A substantial proportion of amyloid-β (Aβ)+ patients with clinically diagnosed Alzheimer’s disease (AD) dementia and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) are tau PET–negative, while some clinically diagnosed non-AD neurodegenerative disorder (non-AD) patients or cognitively unimpaired (CU) subjects are tau PET–positive. We investigated which demographic, clinical, genetic, and imaging variables contributed to tau PET status. Methods: We included 2338 participants (430 Aβ+ AD dementia, 381 Aβ+ MCI, 370 non-AD, and 1157 CU) who underwent [ 18 F]flortaucipir ( n = 1944) or [ 18 F]RO948 ( n = 719) PET. Tau PET positivity was determined in the entorhinal cortex, temporal meta-ROI, and Braak V-VI regions using previously established cutoffs. We performed bivariate binary logistic regression models with tau PET status (positive/negative) as dependent variable and age, sex, APOE ε4, Aβ status (only in CU and non-AD analyses), MMSE, global white matter hyperintensities (WMH), and AD-signature cortical thickness as predictors. Additionally, we performed multivariable binary logistic regression models to account for all other predictors in the same model. Results: Tau PET positivity in the temporal meta-ROI was 88.6% for AD dementia, 46.5% for MCI, 9.5% for non-AD, and 6.1% for CU. Among Aβ+ participants with AD dementia and MCI, lower age, MMSE score, and AD-signature cortical thickness showed the strongest associations with tau PET positivity. In non-AD and CU participants, presence of Aβ was the strongest predictor of a positive tau PET scan. Conclusion: We identified several demographic, clinical, and neurobiological factors that are important to explain the variance in tau PET retention observed across the AD pathological continuum, non-AD neurodegenerative disorders, and cognitively unimpaired persons.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Frame invariant neural network closures for Kraichnan turbulence

Numerical simulations of geophysical and atmospheric flows have to rely on parameterizations of subgrid scale processes due to their limited spatial resolution. Despite substantial progress in developing parameterization (or closure) models for subgrid scale (SGS) processes using physical insights and mathematical approximations, they remain imperfect and can lead to inaccurate predictions. In recent years, machine learning has been successful in extracting complex patterns from high-resolution spatio-temporal data, leading to improved parameterization models, and ultimately better coarse grid prediction. However, the inability to satisfy known physics and poor generalization hinders the application of these models for real-world problems. In this work, we put forth a frame invariant closure approach to improve the accuracy and generalizability of deep learning-based subgrid scale closure models by embedding physical symmetries directly into the structure of the neural network. Specifically, we utilized specialized layers within the convolutional neural network in such a way that desired constraints are theoretically guaranteed without the need for any regularization terms. We demonstrate our framework for a two-dimensional decaying turbulence test case mostly characterized by the forward enstrophy cascade. We show that our frame invariant SGS model (i) accurately predicts the subgrid scale source term, (ii) respects the physical symmetries such as translation, Galilean, and rotation invariance, and (iii) is numerically stable when implemented in coarse-grid simulation with generalization to different initial conditions and Reynolds number. This work opens up a possibility of connecting physics-based theories and data-driven modeling paradigms, and thus represents a promising step towards the development of physically consistent data-driven turbulence closure models.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Feedbacks Between Surface Deformation and Permafrost Degradation in Ice Wedge Polygons, Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska

In the past three decades, an abrupt, pan-Arctic acceleration of ice wedge melting has transformed tundra landscapes, spurring the formation of hummock-like features known as high-centered polygons (HCPs). This rapid geomorphic transition profoundly alters regional hydrology and influences surface emissions of CO 2 and CH 4 . In Arctic Alaska, most recent instances of ice wedge degradation have arrested within 15–20 years of inception, stabilizing HCP microtopography. However, feedbacks between ground surface deformation and permafrost stability are incompletely understood, limiting our capacity to predict trajectories of landscape evolution in a still warmer future. In this work, we use field data from a site near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, to develop a modeling-based framework for assessing the strength of positive (i.e., exacerbating) feedbacks on ice wedge degradation, focusing on the importance of heterogeneity in surface drainage and microtopographic conditions. Our simulations suggest that, when troughs are narrow, positive feedbacks on ice wedge melting (associated with thermokarst pool formation) are relatively weak. Positive feedbacks are markedly stronger beneath wide troughs, such as those that form above older, larger ice wedges. Seasonal thaw abruptly accelerates once a talik begins to form beneath wide and deep thermokarst pools. Once a talik initiates, winter severity and snowpack thickness increase in importance as predictors of thaw intensity in summer. Our results indicate that meter-scale heterogeneity in polygonal microtopography potentially exerts strong, nonlinear controls on thermokarst trajectories. These findings are useful for predicting future thermokarst dynamics and for interpreting the results from coarser-resolution land surface models operating at greater spatial and temporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decoding Golden Eagle Movement Behavior from High-Resolution, Variable-Rate Telemetry Data Through Bayesian Filtering

The recent advances in animal tracking technology have enabled the collection of a vast amount of in situ data regarding the movement of wildlife at high spatiotemporal resolution. These data are usually available at variable time resolutions and contains noise (error) originating from GPS fixes. Decoding movement characteristics, particularly of flying animals, from telemetry data while handling these factors is a challenging yet important task for conservation purposes. Typically, this task is broken into two subtasks: resampling, and model calibration. The resampling subtask converts the variable rate positional data into a constant time interval data, while the model calibration subtask uses the resampled data to tune time-invariant parameters of the proposed models. For telemetry data at high temporal resolutions (order of 1 second), it is very challenging to decouple noise from actual movements using interpolation-based resampling techniques. Any errors introduced during resampling can significantly alter the the calibration and prediction attributes of the movement model. We address this problem through a unified Bayesian state-space framework that can handle both the resampling and calibration tasks in a single step. In addition, we use the speed and heading of the bird from telemetry data to regularize the position information of the bird. We use a Kalman filtering approach to include these nonlinearly related motion parameters within the state space framework. We cross-validated to quantify how this inclusion affects the model performance in estimating true bird movements. The relationship between the true state of the bird and environmental and topographical covariates is then represented parametrically. These parameters are then tuned using stochastic sampling strategies like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We use the telemetry data collected from golden eagles in the western USA to demonstrate the applicability of this approach to build a predictive, probabilistic movement model. Our preliminary results show that this approach provides improved predictive performance in terms of capturing higher-order motion parameters such as angular and horizontal accelerations, which may have simpler and more direct relationships with environmental covariates than corresponding speeds. In this talk, we will demonstrate how this state-space approach benefits the prediction capabilities of a movement model in simulating golden eagle paths through a wind power plant in Wyoming given certain atmospheric conditions. The model outcomes are aimed at informing mitigation strategies that can minimize the potential for collisions of golden eagles with wind turbines.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2020

Model bias in simulating major chemical components of PM 2.5 in China

High concentrations of PM 2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm) in China have caused severe visibility degradation. Accurate simulations of PM 2.5 and its chemical components are essential for evaluating the effectiveness of pollution control strategies and the health and climate impacts of air pollution. In this study, we compared the GEOS-Chem model simulations with comprehensive datasets for organic aerosol (OA), sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium in China. Model results are evaluated spatially and temporally against observations. The new OA scheme with a simplified secondary organic aerosol (SOA) parameterization significantly improves the OA simulations in polluted urban areas, highlighting the important contributions of anthropogenic SOA from semivolatile and intermediate-volatility organic compounds. The model underestimates sulfate and overestimates nitrate for most of the sites throughout the year. More significant underestimation of sulfate occurs in winter, while the overestimation of nitrate is extremely large in summer. The model is unable to capture some of the main features in the diurnal pattern of the PM 2.5 chemical components, suggesting inaccuracies in the presented processes. Potential model adjustments that may lead to a better representation of the boundary layer height, the precursor emissions, hydroxyl radical concentrations, the heterogeneous formation of sulfate and nitrate, and the wet deposition of nitric acid and nitrate have been tested in the sensitivity analysis. The results show that uncertainties in chemistry perhaps dominate the model biases. The proper implementation of heterogeneous sulfate formation and the good estimates of the concentrations of sulfur dioxide, hydroxyl radical, and aerosol liquid water are essential for the improvement of the sulfate simulation. The update of the heterogeneous uptake coefficient of nitrogen dioxide significantly reduces the modeled concentrations of nitrate. However, the large overestimation of nitrate concentrations remains in summer for all tested cases. The possible bias in the chemical production and the wet deposition of nitrate cannot fully explain the model overestimation of nitrate, suggesting issues related to the atmospheric removal of nitric acid and nitrate. A better understanding of the atmospheric nitrogen budget, in particular, the role of the photolysis of particulate nitrate, is needed for future model developments. Moreover, the results suggest that the remaining underestimation of OA in the model is associated with the underrepresented production of SOA.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulating Catalysis with Realistic Pellet Geometries Using Mesoflow: A Case Study of Catalytic Propane Dehydrogenation

We present a case study of catalytic propane dehydrogenation with our open-source multiphysics solver, Mesoflow. The solver was developed to simulate reactive flow coupled to heterogeneous catalytic reactions and deactivation in the context of complex, mesoscale geometry. The method leverages cartesian block-structured adaptive mesh refinement to capture realistic catalyst microstructural features acquired directly from X-ray computed tomography data. A kinetic model for propane dehydrogenation and catalyst deactivation was developed based on temporal analysis of products (TAP) reactor experiments. The TAP reactor experiments allow for precise characterization of intrinsic kinetic reaction steps which are implemented into Mesoflow simulations to model the spatial and temporal evolution of reactants, products, and catalyst active sites. The short-term and long-term deactivation behavior is studied by using XCT data collected from fresh and aged catalyst pellets, which exhibit different microstructural features. This study employs time-splitting algorithms to connect disparate reaction and flow timescales, enabling the simulations to achieve realistic deactivation timescales on the order of minutes while the flow time-scales for small particles (100 microns) are several milliseconds. We also introduce a flexible automated python script that writes the necessary files to construct a Mesoflow simulation from user-created chemical mechanisms. We will also introduce a few new features that are added to Mesoflow such as higher order schemes, implicit chemistry integrators and the ability to run on AMD and NVIDIA graphics-processing-units.

AMReX↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Stochastic Approach to Reconstruct Gamma-Ray-burst Light Curves

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), as they are observed at high redshift ( z = 9.4), are vital to cosmological studies and investigating Population III stars. To tackle these studies, we need correlations among relevant GRB variables with the requirement of small uncertainties on their variables. Thus, we must have good coverage of GRB light curves (LCs). However, gaps in the LC hinder the precise determination of GRB properties and are often unavoidable. Therefore, extensive categorization of GRB LCs remains a hurdle. We address LC gaps using a stochastic reconstruction, wherein we fit two preexisting models (the Willingale model; W07; and a broken power law; BPL) to the observed LC, then use the distribution of flux residuals from the original data to generate data to fill in the temporal gaps. We also demonstrate a model-independent LC reconstruction via Gaussian processes. At 10% noise, the uncertainty of the end time of the plateau, its correspondent flux, and the temporal decay index after the plateau decreases by 33.3%, 35.03%, and 43.32% on average for the W07, and by 33.3%, 30.78%, 43.9% for the BPL, respectively. The uncertainty of the slope of the plateau decreases by 14.76% in the BPL. After using the Gaussian process technique, we see similar trends of a decrease in uncertainty for all model parameters for both the W07 and BPL models. These improvements are essential for the application of GRBs as standard candles in cosmology, for the investigation of theoretical models, and for inferring the redshift of GRBs with future machine-learning analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of an ERT‐Based Framework for Bentonite Buffers Monitoring From Laboratory Tests: 2. Quantitative Moisture Dynamics Estimation Model

Abstract The long‐term containment of high‐level radioactive waste in geological disposal repositories relies on Engineered Barrier Systems (EBS), with bentonite clay emerging as a candidate material due to its unique properties. Understanding moisture dynamics within bentonite buffers is crucial for EBS performance, as it directly influences the material's swelling capacity, thermal and hydraulic conductivity, mechanical properties, and long‐term evolution under complex thermal‐hydrological‐mechanical (THM) processes. This study develops an advanced Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT)‐based framework to quantitatively monitor moisture dynamics under THM conditions. Our framework extends the Waxman‐Smits model to incorporate the coupled effects of temperature, water content, fluid chemistry, and mechanical changes on bentonite's electrical properties. Utilizing HotBENT‐Lab data from our companion paper, which includes electrical conductivity, CT density, and thermocouple measurements, this study offers a novel methodological framework bridging different scales of the model. Our results show that the extended model can estimate water content from ERT data, capturing spatial and temporal variations in moisture distribution within bentonite columns. However, the model tends to overestimate water content compared to CT density‐derived measurements. We address this discrepancy by incorporating a simplified swelling effect model, which improves agreement between ERT and CT density‐based water content estimates. We also discuss model limitations, including simplified treatment of swelling and micropore effects, and propose a conceptual framework for transitioning from laboratory to field applications, addressing challenges such as parameter scalability, field validation methods, and integration of diverse data sources. This ERT‐based framework can potentially advance real‐world moisture monitoring of bentonite‐based EBS in nuclear waste repositories. Plain Language Summary Safely containing high‐level radioactive waste depends on barriers made from materials like bentonite clay, which is effective because it swells and seals in the waste. To ensure these barriers work well over time, it's important to understand how moisture moves through the clay. Our study developed a new method using ERT to monitor moisture levels in bentonite under conditions that mimic those in actual storage sites, including changes in temperature, water content, and mechanical stress. This study improved an existing model to better account for how these factors affect the clay, allowing us to create more accurate moisture maps. Initially, the proposed model overestimated the amount of water in the clay, but its accuracy was improved by factoring in how the clay swells when wet. This study also identified some limitations of the model and suggested ways to adapt it for use in real‐world waste storage sites. This new approach could lead to better monitoring and safety checks for nuclear waste storage systems, helping to ensure long‐term containment. Key Points This work develops an ERT‐based framework extending the Waxman‐Smits model to monitor bentonite moisture dynamics during coupled THM processes The extended model accurately estimates water content from Electrical Resistivity Tomography data, incorporating swelling effects to improve precision This work proposes a conceptual framework for transitioning from laboratory to field applications, advancing EBS monitoring in nuclear waste repositories

Chen, Hang↗
DOE OSTI2022

Heterogeneous climate change impacts on electricity demand in world cities circa mid-century

Rising ambient temperatures due to climate change will increase urban populations’ exposures to extreme heat. During hot hours, a key protective adaptation is increased air conditioning and associated consumption of electricity for cooling. But during cold hours, milder temperatures have the offsetting effect of reducing consumption of electricity and other fuels for heating. We elucidate the net consequences of these opposing effects in 36 cities in different world regions. We couple reduced-form statistical models of cities’ hourly responses of electric load to temperature with temporally downscaled projections of temperatures simulated by 21 global climate models (GCMs), projecting the effects of warming on the demand for electricity circa 2050. Cities' responses, temperature exposures and impacts are heterogeneous, with changes in total annual consumption ranging from –2.7 to 5.7%, and peak power demand increasing by as much as 9.5% at the multi-GCM median. The largest increases are concentrated in more economically developed mid-latitude cities, with less developed urban areas in the tropics exhibiting relatively small changes. The results highlight the important role of the structure of electricity demand: large temperature increases in tropical cities are offset by their inelastic responses, which can be attributed to lower air-conditioning penetration.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Deep Learning Modeling Framework to Capture Mixing Patterns in Reactive-Transport Systems

Prediction and control of chemical mixing are vital for many scientific areas such as subsurface reactive transport, climate modeling, combustion, epidemiology, and pharmacology. Due to the complex nature of mixing in heterogeneous and anisotropic media, the mathematical models related to this phenomenon are not analytically tractable. Numerical simulations often provide a viable route to predict chemical mixing accurately. However, contemporary modeling approaches for mixing cannot utilize available spatial-temporal data to improve the accuracy of the future prediction and can be compute-intensive, especially when the spatial domain is large and for long-term temporal predictions. To address this knowledge gap, in this work we will present in this paper a deep learning (DL) modeling framework applied to predict the progress of chemical mixing under fast bimolecular reactions. This framework uses convolutional neural networks (CNN) for capturing spatial patterns and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks for forecasting temporal variations in mixing. By careful design of the framework—placement of non-negative constraint on the weights of the CNN and the selection of activation function, the framework ensures non-negativity of the chemical species at all spatial points and for all times. Our DL-based framework is fast, accurate, and requires minimal data for training. The time needed to obtain a forecast using the model is a fraction (≈ O(-6)) of the time needed to obtain the result using a high-fidelity simulation. To achieve an error of 10% (measured using the infinity norm) for capturing local-scale mixing features such as interfacial mixing, only 24% to 32% of the sequence data for model training is required. To achieve the same level of accuracy for capturing global-scale mixing features, the sequence data required for model training is 64% to 70% of the total spatial-temporal data. Hence, the proposed approach—a fast and accurate way to forecast long-time spatial-temporal mixing patterns in heterogeneous and anisotropic media—will be a valuable tool for modeling reactive-transport in a wide range of applications.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗