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At least 307 records · Page 17

Thermospheric dynamics during September 18-19, 1984. II - Validation of the NCAR thermospheric general circulation model

The winds, temperatures, and densities predicted by the thermospheric GCM are compared with measurements from the Equinox Transition Study of September 17-24, 1984. Agreement between predictions and observation is good in many respects. The quiet day observations contain a strong semidiurnal wind variation which is mainly due to upward-propagating tides. The storm day wind behavior is significantly different and includes a surge of equatorward winds due to a global propagating disturbance associated with the storm onset. A quantitative statistical comparison of the predicted and measured winds indicates that the equatorward winds in the model are weaker than the observed winds, particularly during storm times. A quiet day phase anomaly in the measured F region winds which is not reproduced by the model suggests the occurrence of an important unmodeled interaction between upward propagating semidiurnal tides and high-latitude effects.

Crowley, G.↗

Explicit quantification of residence and flushing times in the Salish Sea using a sub-basin scale shoreline resolving model

The Salish Sea, located in the Pacific Northwest region of North America has complex currents and circulation features distributed over numerous interconnected deep basins with islands. Increased risk of exposure to oil spills and untreated wastewater from maritime emergencies and treatment plant failures have led to a need for quantifying residence and flushing characteristics at a sub-basin scale using a shoreline resolving hydrodynamic model. An unstructured grid model of the Salish Sea was developed using FVCOM with a ≈75-100m shoreline resolution. In addition to 7 tides and 23 salinity and temperature monitoring stations, an extensive currents data set from 135 stations collected over a span of three years was used for skill assessment and validation. Explicit forward computations were then conducted to define and quantify residence and flushing times in various sub-basins of interest using (a) Lagrangian particles and (b) Numerical/virtual dye experiments. The results in most basins show expected seasonal variability with longer flushing time associated with summer lower tides and lower freshwater inflows. However, contrary to expectation, flushing time is significantly longer in wintertime in large fjord-like basins such as Hood Canal (≈138 days), likely due to increased stratification and reduced mixing. The flushing time for the Puget Sound region of the Salish Sea is ≈115 days, while Georgia Basin is 240 days when analyzed as stand-alone basins with zero background concentrations. When examined as part of the flushing of the entire Puget Sound filled with virtual dye, the compounded flushing times for embedded sub-basins can be significantly longer in order of magnitudes and largely dictated by the flushing time of Puget Sound. The computed residence and flushing time scales tabulated over 36 sub-basins provide an improved understanding of water renewal in the system, informing pollution management actions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bayesian-Motivated Probabilistic Model of Hurricane-Induced Multimechanism Flood Hazards

Multimechanism floods (MMFs) are caused by the simultaneous occurrence of more than one flood mechanism such as storm surge, precipitation, tides, and waves. MMFs can lead to more severe or differing impacts than single-mechanism floods. As a result, comprehensive risk assessments require the ability to assess the multivariate probabilistic behaviors of hazards from MMFs. Here this study introduces a novel Bayesian-motivated approach for the probabilistic assessment of hurricane-induced hazards from the combination of the surge, precipitation, tides, and river antecedent flow. A Bayesian network (BN) is developed to capture the physical (conditional) relationship between variables and facilitate the generation of a hazard curve for river discharge that captures the contributions from multiple flood drivers. A case study located along the Delaware River is used to illustrate the proposed approach. Five computationally efficient representative predictive models are developed to estimate the conditional distributions required for the BN as a means of demonstrating the overall framework. The predictive models used in this study act as placeholders and can be replaced with more sophisticated and high-fidelity models depending on the desired accuracy level. While the predictive models are intended to be representative and illustrative, the model performance is evaluated using three historical storms that affected the area. Overall, the proposed framework is shown to be transparent, effective, and adaptable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Geodynamic Effects of Ocean Tides: Progress and Problems

Satellite altimetry, particularly Topex/Poseidon, has markedly improved our knowledge of global tides, thereby allowing significant progress on some longstanding problems in geodynamics. This paper reviews some of that progress. Emphasis is given to global-scale problems, particularly those falling within the mandate of the new IERS Special Bureau for Tides: angular momentum, gravitational field, geocenter motion. For this discussion I use primarily the new ocean tide solutions GOT99.2, CSR4.0, and TPXO.4 (for which G. Egbert has computed inverse-theoretic error estimates), and I concentrate on new results in angular momentum and gravity and their solid-earth implications. One example is a new estimate of the effective tidal Q at the M_2 frequency, based on combining these ocean models with tidal estimates from satellite laser ranging. Three especially intractable problems are also addressed: (1) determining long-period tides in the Arctic [large unknown effect on the inertia tensor, particularly for Mf]; (2) determining the global psi_l tide [large unknown effect on interpretations of gravimetry for the near-diurnal free wobble]; and (3) determining radiational tides [large unknown temporal variations at important frequencies]. Problems (2) and (3) are related.

Richard, Ray↗

From Mars to Greenland: Charting gravity with space and airborne instruments - Fields, tides, methods, results

This symposium on space and airborne techniques for measuring gravity fields, and related theory, contains papers on gravity modeling of Mars and Venus at NASA/GSFC, an integrated laser Doppler method for measuring planetary gravity fields, observed temporal variations in the earth's gravity field from 16-year Starlette orbit analysis, high-resolution gravity models combining terrestrial and satellite data, the effect of water vapor corrections for satellite altimeter measurements of the geoid, and laboratory demonstrations of superconducting gravity and inertial sensors for space and airborne gravity measurements. Other papers are on airborne gravity measurements over the Kelvin Seamount; the accuracy of GPS-derived acceleration from moving platform tests; airborne gravimetry, altimetry, and GPS navigation errors; controlling common mode stabilization errors in airborne gravity gradiometry, GPS/INS gravity measurements in space and on a balloon, and Walsh-Fourier series expansion of the earth's gravitational potential.

Colombo, Oscar L.↗

A comparison of machine learning surrogate models of street-scale flooding in Norfolk, Virginia

Low-lying coastal cities, exemplified by Norfolk, Virginia, face the challenge of street flooding caused by rainfall and tides, which strain transportation and sewer systems and can lead to personal and property damage. While high-fidelity, physics-based simulations provide accurate predictions of urban pluvial flooding, their computational complexity renders them unsuitable for real-time applications. Using data from Norfolk rainfall events between 2016 and 2018, this study compares the performance of a previous surrogate model based on a random forest algorithm with two deep learning models: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). The comparison of deep learning to the random forest algorithm is motivated by the desire to utilize a machine learning architecture that allows for the future inclusion of common uncertainty quantification techniques and the effective integration of relevant, multi-modal features.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Radar studies of gravity waves and tides in the middle atmosphere - A review

A review is presented of recent radar studies of gravity waves and tides in the middle atmosphere (over regions of approximately 10-30 and 60-90 km). The techniques used for monitoring the motions are outlined and their limitations are pointed out. The radars provide observations of short-period (1 min-1 h) gravity waves and tides at selected height intervals, depending on the radar frequency and the observation technique. The following contributions to the study of the midatmosphere are included in the discussion: (1) buoyancy oscillations and short-period (less than 10 min) acoustic-gravity waves have been observed in the troposphere and stratosphere and, in several cases, their generation and propagation near critical levels has been reconciled with theoretical models; (2) excitation of stratospheric waves by penetrative convection associated with thunderstorms has been established; (3) stratospheric and mesospheric tides at diurnal and semidiurnal periods have been observed; and (4) long-period (approximately 2 to 5 days) waves have been observed in the mesosphere. It is noted that more comprehensive data bases need to be obtained for further tidal and wave studies.

Rastogi, P. K.↗

A Comprehensive Model of Earth's Magnetic Field Determined from 4 Years of Swarm Satellite Observations

The European Space Agency's three-satellite constellation Swarm, launched in November 2013, has provided unprecedented monitoring of Earth's magnetic field via a unique set of gradiometric and multi-satellite measurements from low Earth orbit. In order to exploit these measurements, an advanced "Comprehensive Inversion" (CI) algorithm has been developed to optimally separate the various major magnetic field sources in the near-Earth regime. The CI algorithm is used to determine Swarm Level-2 (L2) magnetic field data products that include the core, lithospheric, ionospheric, magnetospheric, and associated induced sources. In addition, it has become apparent that the CI is capable of extracting the magnetic signal associated with the oceanic principal lunar semi-diurnal tidal constituent M(sub 2) to such an extent that it has been added to the L2 data product line. This paper presents the parent model of the Swarm L2 CI products derived with measurements from the first four years of the Swarm mission and from ground observatories, denoted as "CIY4", including the new product describing the magnetic signal of the M(sub 2) oceanic tide.

Swarm Satellites↗

Tides in the giant planets

Goldreich and Soter's (1966) discussion of tidal dissipation in the Jovian planets is reexamined for planetary models which possess an appreciable internal heat source. The tidal torque produced in a fully liquid planet is calculated as a function of the average viscosity in the interior. Turbulent viscosity, which is produced by the convection of internal heat to the surface, seems to be capable of producing small (about a few per cent) changes in the orbits of the innermost satellites of Jupiter over the age of the solar system. The basic regularity of many of the giant planet satellite systems is probably due to other, perhaps primordial, causes.

Hubbard, W. B.↗

Design and calibration of a rocket-borne electron spectrometer for investigation of particle ionization in the nighttime midlatitude E region

An explanation was developed for the formation, near midnight at midlatitudes, of a broad electron density layer extending approximately from 120 to 180 km and usually referred to as the intermediate E layer. The responsible mechanism is believed to be the converging vertical ion drifts resulting from winds of the solar semidiurnal tide. Numerical solutions of the continuity equation appropriate to the intermediate layer is described for particular models of ion drift, diffusion coefficents, and ionization production. Analysis of rocket observations of the layer show that the ionization rate is highly correlated with the planetary geomagnetic index, K sub p. Particle flux measurements support the idea that energetic electrons are the principal source of this ionization. A semiconductor spectrometer experiment for investigation of the particle flux, spectrum, and angular properties was designed and successfully flown on a Nike Apache rocket. A detailed description of the theory, design, and calibration of the experiment and some preliminary results presented.

Voss, H. D.↗

Periodic variations in stratospheric-mesospheric temperature from 20-65 km at 80 N to 30 S

Results on large-scale periodic variations of the stratospheric-mesospheric temperature field based on Meteorological Rocket Network (MRN) measurements are reported for a long-term (12-year) mean, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and the first three harmonics of the annual wave (annual wave, semi-annual wave, and terannual wave or 4-month variation). Station-to-station comparisons are tabulated and charted for amplitude and phase of periodic variations in the temperature field. Masking and biasing factors, such as diurnal tides, solar radiation variations, mean monthly variations, instrument lag, aerodynamic heating, are singled out for attention. Models of the stratosphere will have to account for these oscillations of different periods in the thermal field and related properties of the wind fields, with multilayered horizontal stratification with height taken into account.-

Nastrom, G. D.↗

Middle atmosphere (60-110 km) tidal oscillations at Saskatoon, Canada (52 deg N, 107 deg W) during 1983/84

Since mid-1978, the medium frequency (2.2 MHz; M.F.) radar at Saskatoon has run continuously, measuring winds by the spaced antenna method in the upper middle atmosphere. As there is so much dynamics activity during the years of MAP it seems very important to establish the features of the tidal field at Saskatoon during 1983 to 1984, and compare these with the climatology from the four years 1978 to 1979 and 1981 to 1982. Wind profiles with 60 to 110 km (80 to 110 km at night) with 3 km resolution are obtained every 5 minutes by means of a full-correlation analysis. Hourly means are formed and harmonic analysis applied to sets of data to obtain the mean winds and tidal oscillation amplitudes and phases. The zonal wind field at Saskatoon is structurally similar to CIRA-72; however, the wind eastward cell is weaker and much more structured, and the summer eastward cell above 85 km is also weaker. For the semidiurnal tide, a strong seasonal change exists, with larger amplitudes and shorter wavelengths, in winter-like months and the reverse in summer-like months. A summary of the tidal parameters at 90 km is given, where mean values from 1978 to 1982 are also shown. This seasonal variation of tides is a midlatitude climatology, as comparisons with Monpazier, France and Christchurch, New Zealand show very similar behavior, as does Durham; and requires antisymmetric tidal modes such as 2,3 and 2,5. Considering the diurnal tide, for most months centered on summer there are long wavelength modes, or superposition of several models. However, some winter months show a short wavelength mode. A summary of the 90 km characteristics is presented.

Manson, A. H.↗

Altimeter measurements for the determination of the Earth's gravity field

The ability of satellite-borne radar altimeter data to measure the global ocean surface with high precision and dense spatial coverage provides a unique tool for the mapping of the Earth's gravity field and its geoid. The altimeter crossover measurements, created by differencing direct altimeter measurements at the subsatellite points where the orbit ground tracks intersect, have the distinct advantage of eliminating geoid error and other nontemporal or long period oceanographic features. In the 1990's, the joint U.S./French TOPEX/POSEIDON mission and the European Space Agency's ERS-1 mission will carry radar altimeter instruments capable of global ocean mapping with high precision. This investigation aims at the development and application of dynamically consistent direct altimeter and altimeter crossover measurement models to the simultaneous mapping of the Earth's gravity field and its geoid, the ocean tides and the quasi-stationary component of the dynamic sea surface topography. Altimeter data collected by SEASAT, GEOS-3, and GEOSAT are used for the investigation.

Tapley, B. D.↗

Global seamless tidal simulation using a 3D unstructured-grid model (SCHISM v5.10.0)

We present a new 3D unstructured-grid global ocean model to study both tidal and nontidal processes, with a focus on the total water elevation. Unlike existing global ocean models, the new model resolves estuaries and rivers down to ~8 m without the need for grid nesting. The model is validated with both satellite and in situ observations for elevation, temperature, and salinity. Tidal elevation solutions have a mean complex root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 4.2 cm for M2 and 5.4 cm for all five major constituents in the deep ocean. The RMSEs for the other four constituents, S2, N2, K1, and O1, are, respectively, 2.05, 0.93, 2.08, and 1.34 cm). The nontidal residual assessed by a tide gauge dataset (GESLA) has a mean RMSE of 7 cm. For the first time ever, we demonstrate the potential for seamless simulation on a single mesh from the global ocean into several estuaries along the US West Coast. The model is able to accurately capture the total elevation, even at some upstream stations. The model can therefore potentially serve as the backbone of a global tide surge and compound flooding forecasting framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Beyond the Stokes approximation: shallow visco-elastic ice-sheet models

Abstract The hypothesis that ice-sheet evolution is only controlled by the long-term non-Newtonian viscous behavior of ice has been challenged by observations indicating that effects like brittle failure, stick-slip sliding, tides and wave action may affect ice-sheet evolution on sub-daily timescales. Over these timescales, the quasi-static-creep approximation is no longer appropriate and elastic effects become important. Simulating elastic effects in ice-sheet models over relevant timescales, however, remains challenging. Here, we show that by including a visco-elastic rheology and reintroducing the oft neglected acceleration term back into the ice-sheet stress balance, we can create a visco-elastic system where the velocity is locally determined and information propagates at the elastic wave speed. Crucially, the elastic wave speed can be treated like an adjustable parameter and set to any value to reproduce a range of phenomena, provided the wave speed is large compared to the viscous velocity. We illustrate the system using three examples. The first two examples demonstrate that the system converges to the steady-state viscous and elastic limits. The third example examines ice-shelf rifting and iceberg calving. This final example hints at the utility of the visco-elastic formulation in treating both long-term evolution and short-term environmental effects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The self-consistent dynamic pole tide in global oceans

The dynamic pole tide is characterized in a self-consistent manner by means of introducing a single nondifferential matrix equation compatible with the Liouville equation, modelling the ocean as global and of uniform depth. The deviations of the theory from the realistic ocean, associated with the nonglobality of the latter, are also given consideration, with an inference that in realistic oceans long-period modes of resonances would be increasingly likely to exist. The analysis of the nature of the pole tide and its effects on the Chandler wobble indicate that departures of the pole tide from the equilibrium may indeed be minimal.

Dickman, S. R.↗

Detecting Trend and Seasonal Changes in Bathymetry Derived from HICO Imagery: A Case Study of Shark Bay, Western Australia

The Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Ocean (HICO) aboard the International Space Station has offered for the first time a dedicated space-borne hyperspectral sensor specifically designed for remote sensing of the coastal environment. However, several processing steps are required to convert calibrated top-of-atmosphere radiances to the desired geophysical parameter(s). These steps add various amounts of uncertainty that can cumulatively render the geophysical parameter imprecise and potentially unusable if the objective is to analyze trends and/or seasonal variability. This research presented here has focused on: (1) atmospheric correction of HICO imagery; (2) retrieval of bathymetry using an improved implementation of a shallowwater inversion algorithm; (3) propagation of uncertainty due to environmental noise through the bathymetry retrieval process; (4) issues relating to consistent geo-location of HICO imagery necessary for time series analysis, and; (5) tide height corrections of the retrieved bathymetric dataset. The underlying question of whether a temporal change in depth is detectable above uncertainty is also addressed. To this end, nine HICO images spanning November 2011 to August 2012, over the Shark Bay World Heritage Area, Western Australia, were examined. The results presented indicate that precision of the bathymetric retrievals is dependent on the shallow water inversion algorithm used.Within this study, an average of 70% of pixels for the entire HICO-derived bathymetry dataset achieved a relative uncertainty of less than +/-20%. A per-pixel t-test analysis between derived bathymetry images at successive timestamps revealed observable changes in depth to as lowas 0.4 m. However, the present geolocation accuracy of HICO is relatively poor and needs further improvements before extensive time series analysis can be performed.

Geolocations accuracy↗