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At least 307 records · Page 17

Validation of earthquake ground-motion models in southern California, USA, using precariously balanced rocks

Accurate estimates of earthquake ground shaking rely on uncertain ground-motion models derived from limited instrumental recordings of historical earthquakes. A critical issue is that there is currently no method to empirically validate the resultant ground-motion estimates of these models at the timescale of rare, large earthquakes; this lack of validation causes great uncertainty in ground-motion estimates. Here, we address this issue and validate ground-motion estimates for southern California utilizing the unexceeded ground motions recorded by 20 precariously balanced rocks. We used cosmogenic 10Be exposure dating to model the age of the precariously balanced rocks, which ranged from ca. 1 ka to ca. 50 ka, and calculated their probability of toppling at different ground-motion levels. With this rock data, we then validated the earthquake ground motions estimated by the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3) seismic-source characterization and the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA)-West2 ground-motion models. We found that no ground-motion model estimated levels of earthquake ground shaking consistent with the observed continued existence of all 20 precariously balanced rocks. The ground-motion model I14 estimated ground-motion levels that were inconsistent with the most rocks; therefore, I14 was invalidated and removed. At a 2475 year mean return period, the removal of this invalid ground-motion model resulted in a 2−7% reduction in the mean and a 10−36% reduction in the 5th−95th fractile uncertainty of the ground-motion estimates. Our findings demonstrate the value of empirical data from precariously balanced rocks as a validation tool for removing invalid ground-motion models and, in turn, reducing the uncertainty in earthquake ground-motion estimates.

Geology↗

Dates and rates of loess deposition and soil formation on the Snake River Plain, Idaho, USA

Loess-paleosol sequences in eolian deposits on the Snake River Plain, Idaho, western United States, preserve records of late Pleistocene to Holocene glacial-interglacial cycles. Here, we examine climate-driven changes in the timing and rate of loess accretion, soil formation, and pedogenic carbonate accumulation in the eastern and central Snake River Plain. High rates of loess deposition often correspond with dry, cold, and windy conditions and/or high sediment supply, while soil formation indicates landscape stability. Optically stimulated luminescence dating of four loess-soil sequences provides a record of the timing of loess deposition, and radiocarbon dating ( 14 C) of soil inorganic carbon provides ages for soil formation and pedogenic carbonate precipitation. On the central Snake River Plain, marine isotope stage (MIS) 3 is marked by loess deposition between ca. 50 ka and 33 ka, and pedogenic carbonate accumulation between ca. 42 ka calibrated years before present (cal. B.P.) and 31 ka cal. B.P. During MIS 2, loess deposition between ca. 21 ka and 15 ka is contemporaneous with pedogenic carbonate precipitation. MIS 2 is characterized by diffuse pedogenic carbonate formation and rapid loess accumulation. Both the eastern and central Snake River Plain study sites experienced high rates of loess deposition during MIS 2; however, the eastern Snake River Plain had almost three times faster rates of loess accumulation (0.56−0.63 m/k.y. from ca. 25 ka to 17 ka) as compared to the central Snake River Plain (0.18−0.26 m/k.y. from ca. 21 ka to 15 ka). During MIS 1, loess deposition on the central Snake River Plain ca. 11 ka was coincident with pedogenic carbonate formation ca. 10 ka cal. B.P. MIS 3 and MIS 1 are characterized by A horizons and well-developed Bk horizons, indicating soil stability and lower rates of loess accumulation during these intervals. Finally, this study highlights the role of late Quaternary−scale climatic variability on rates and amounts of soil inorganic carbon storage.

Geosciences↗

Cobalt mineralogy at the Iron Creek deposit, Idaho cobalt belt, USA: Implications for domestic critical mineral production

Current U.S. policies aim to establish domestic supply chains of critical minerals for the energy transition. The Iron Creek deposit in the Idaho cobalt belt (ICB) is one of the most promising cobalt (Co) targets. Our case study illustrates the importance of mineralogy in strategic evaluations of critical mineral potential. Most of the Co at Iron Creek occurs as Fe substitution in pyrite, with lattice-bound and inclusion-hosted Ag, As, Bi, Ni, Pb, Se, Te ± trace Au and Sb. Cobalt also occurs in minor cattierite-vaesite. The Co minerals are intergrown with Co-poor chalcopyrite hosting Cu ± minor In and Zn. Worldwide, most Co is recovered from deposits mineralogically distinct from the ICB, and the United States currently lacks infrastructure to recover this Co and its associated metals. ICB ore minerals could be processed by autoclave, roaster, smelter, bioleach, or heap leach. Recovery of the Ag, As, Au, Bi, In, Pb, Se, Te, and Zn would be costly by autoclave, and construction of a custom smelter for ICB ores is likely uneconomic, so these elements would become waste irrespective of criticality. The Co-Fe and Co-As sulfide minerals are most suitable for Co and Ni recovery by a hydrometallurgical autoclave process, with potential pretreatment of cobaltiferous pyrite/arsenopyrite in an inert-atmosphere roaster, in new domestic or anticipated international facilities. The ICB is the second largest known Co resource in the United States. Consideration of ore mineralogy in the ICB is essential in strategies for domestic production.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Pleistocene Colorado River terraces in the canyonlands region (Utah, USA) record unsteady, transient incision and growth of the Cataract Canyon knickzone by salt tectonics

Colorado River terraces in the canyonlands region of southeastern Utah can be dated and analyzed to address the controls of incision and nature of the Colorado Plateau's largest channel-steepness anomaly, Cataract Canyon. Field correlations supported by luminescence and cosmogenic-nuclide ages on strath terraces along Meander Canyon, upstream of Cataract Canyon, reveal a complex record of unsteady incision over the past ~340 k.y. at an average rate of ~0.4 mm/yr. Both an upstream progression of rapid incision and a unique sigmoidal long-profile pattern of terraces indicate incision in response to episodic baselevel fall. Also, terraces converge downstream with the anomalously low-gradient modern channel above Cataract Canyon. Here we interpret these results as indicating that growth of the Cataract Canyon knickzone is due to an erosion-salt tectonics feedback since at least the Mid Pleistocene, which has imparted unsteady, and currently elevated, local baselevel. More broadly, the canyonlands region is marked by rapid and unsteady incision that is complicated by local geologic controls even while being absent of any regional or mantle-driven uplift.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The spatial and temporal evolution of the Portland and Tualatin forearc basins, Oregon, USA

The Portland and Tualatin basins are part of the Salish-Puget-Willamette Lowland, a 900-km-long, forearc depression lying between the volcanic arc and the Coast Ranges of the Cascadia convergent margin. Such inland seaways are characteristic of warm, young slab subduction. We analyzed the basins to better understand their evolution and relation to Coast Range history and to provide an improved tectonic framework for the Portland metropolitan area. We model three key horizons in the basins: (1) the top of the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG), (2) the bottom of the CRBG, and (3) the top of Eocene basement. Isochore maps constrain basin depocenters during (1) Pleistocene to mid-Miocene time (0–15 Ma), (2) CRBG (15.5–16.5 Ma), and (3) early Miocene to late Eocene (ca. 17–35 Ma) time. Results show that the Portland and Tualatin basins have distinct mid-Miocene to Quaternary depocenters but were one continuous basin from the Eocene until mid-Miocene time. A NW-striking gravity low coincident with the NW-striking, fault-bounded Portland Hills anticline is interpreted as an older graben coincident with observed thickening of CRBG flows and underlying sedimentary rocks. Neogene transpression in the forearc structurally inverted the Sylvan-Oatfield and Portland Hills normal faults as high-angle dextral-reverse faults, separating the Portland and Tualatin basins. An eastward shift of the forearc basin depocenter and ten-fold decrease in accommodation space provide temporal constraints on the emergence of the Coast Range to the west. Clockwise rotation and northward transport of the forearc is deforming the basins and producing local earthquakes beneath the metropolitan area.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Interpretation of hydrothermal conditions, production-injection induced effects, and evidence for enhanced geothermal system-type heat exchange in response to >30 years of production at Roosevelt Hot Springs, Utah, USA

The Roosevelt Hot Springs hydrothermal system is located at the base of the Mineral Mountains in southwestern Utah on the eastern side of the Basin and Range. Hydrothermal activity is related to relatively recent bimodal magmatism, and the system is hosted in coarsely crystalline rock made of Oligocene–Miocene granitoids and Precambrian gneiss. The hydrothermal plume covers ~5 km 2 , with a maximum temperature of 268 °C at ~750 m depth, and a vertically extensive fault-fracture mesh east of the Opal Mound fault controls the upflow of hydrothermal fluids. Power generation (currently 38 MWe gross) began in 1984, and up through 2016, four wells were used for fluid production, and three wells were used for edge-field injection. Chemical analyses of produced fluids show that modern reservoir fluid compositions are similar to but more concentrated than those at the start of production, having near-neutral pH, total dissolved solids of 7000–10,000 mg/kg, and ionic ratios of Cl/HCO 3 ~50–100, Cl/SO4 ~50–100, and Na/K ~4–5. Chemical geothermometers indicate equilibration temperatures that mainly range between 240° and 300 °C. Early production induced a steep drop in pressure (~3.0–3.5 MPa), which was accompanied by a 250–300 m lowering of piezometric levels in wells and development of a shallow steam zone across the system. Hydrothermal fluid compositions evolved continuously in response to production-related steam-loss and injection breakthrough, which is reflected by gradual increases in chloride of up to 35% and stable isotope ratios of up to ~2‰δ 18 O and ~10‰δD. Simple mixing model calculations suggest that there has been a significant amount, ~10–20 MW th , of sustained multi-decadal heat mining and enhanced geothermal system (EGS)–type heat transfer by the injectate as it returns to the production zone. Overall, the two factors that have sustained long-term power production (currently 38 MWe gross) are the increased upflow of deep chloride water and, to a lesser extent, the mining of heat at <1 km depth.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Tracking the spatial and temporal links between late Cenozoic extension and magmatism in the Death Valley region (California, USA)

The relationship between late Cenozoic magmatism and extension in the central Basin and Range province (western United States) is complex, necessitating high-precision geochronology to understand its spatiotemporal connections. In the Death Valley region (California), the lack of high-precision U-Pb zircon ages has limited our understanding of the timing of pluton formation and its links to regional extension. We present new high-precision chemical abrasion-isotope dilution-thermal ionization mass spectrometry 206 Pb/ 238 U zircon ages and trace element analyses for eight Death Valley plutons. Our findings reveal three distinct phases of intrusive magmatism: (1) emplacement of shallow rapakivi granites at 13.2 Ma, (2) construction of the mid-crustal Black Mountains intrusive complex at 11.3 Ma, and (3) late emplacement of shallow, compositionally diverse intrusions at 8.2 Ma. A gap in zircon crystallization between 10 Ma and 8.2 Ma coincides with exhumation of the Black Mountains and a transition from sill to dike emplacement. The dominance of rapakivi granites in the Death Valley region, which is rare among Cenozoic granitoids, is likely a result of rapid crustal extension that induces adiabatic decompression. A comparison of the timing of volcanism, plutonism, and tectonic events in Death Valley reveals that intrusive magmatism closely tracks the locus of extension, underscoring the plutonic record as a vital link for understanding regional tectonics and changes in plate boundary dynamics during this period.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluation of a laboratory-developed multiplex real-time PCR assay for diagnosis of syphilis, herpes and chancroid genital ulcers in four public health laboratories in the USA

Objective To evaluate the field performance of a multiplex PCR (M-PCR) assay for detection of herpes simplex virus (HSV)-1 and HSV-2, Treponema pallidum ( T. pallidum ) and Haemophilus ducreyi ( H. ducreyi ) in genital ulcer disease (GUD) specimens. Methods GUD M-PCR was performed on 186 remnant specimens, previously collected for HSV testing, by four public health laboratories (PHLs) and the Laboratory Reference and Research Branch (LRRB) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The results from the PHLs were compared with those of LRRB, which served as the reference testing method, and percentage agreement was calculated. Results HSV was detected in 31 of 52 (59.6%), 20 of 40 (50%), 43 of 44 (97.7%) and 19 of 50 (38.0%) specimens from PHL1, PHL2, PHL3 and PHL4, respectively. There were seven discrepant results for HSV, and the overall percent agreement between the PHLs and the LRRB was 94%–100%, with a kappa value of 0.922, which demonstrates high agreement. T. pallidum was identified in 7 of 51 (13.7%) specimens from PHL1 with 94.1% agreement and in 2 of 40 (5.0%) specimens from PHL2 with 100% agreement. The LRRB identified three additional T. pallidum -positive specimens from PHL1. The kappa value (0.849) for T. pallidum testing suggests good agreement. Consistent with the LRRB results, no T. pallidum was detected in specimens from PHL3 and PHL4, and H. ducreyi was not detected at any of the study sites. Conclusions The GUD M-PCR assay performed well in four independent PHLs and 12 suspected syphilis cases were identified in this study. The M-PCR assay could provide improved diagnostic options for GUD infections in state and local PHLs.

Infectious Diseases↗

Multidecadal shifts in forest plant diversity and community composition across glacial landforms in northern lower Michigan, USA

Understanding how plant community assemblage is affected by spatial and temporal patterns is crucial to understanding forest ecosystem responses to disturbance, including future climate change. In this article, we tracked how diversity and composition are distributed through space and time in a midsuccessional mixed hardwood forest in northern lower Michigan, United States. This region’s geographically and abiotically distinct glacial landforms influence both the spatial and temporal dynamics of its forest communities. Vegetation sampling plots (n = 87) were established at the University of Michigan Biological Station in 1990 and resampled in 2015. Vegetation in the overstory, sapling, and groundcover layers was censused. Abiotic variables, including elevation, pH, and soil nutrients, were measured in a subset of plots (n = 40). There were strong differences in diversity and community composition among glacial landforms, with the moraine having a 31% greater species richness in the groundcover layer compared with those of the other glacial landforms. Surprisingly, plant communities across all three vegetation layers showed little change over the 25-year period, and we found no evidence of differences in successional rates among glacial landforms. Our findings indicate that glacial landforms have a large influence on the production and maintenance of local plant diversity and community composition in this area and suggest that successional dynamics may manifest themselves over much longer time periods in these northern biomes.

Forestry↗

Effect of gap size on composition and structure of regeneration 19 years after harvest in a southeastern bottomland forest, USA

Following timber harvests in bottomland mixed-oak (Quercus L.) stands, desirable oak advance regeneration can be overgrown by shade-intolerant pioneer species. We investigated the effects of group selection opening size on composition of tree regeneration 19 years postharvest in an oak-dominated bottomland forest and compared results with earlier findings to evaluate development trends. In response to six opening sizes (7–40 m radii), we evaluated regeneration density and dominance of four tree species groups: conifers, hard mast, shade-intolerant hardwoods, and shade-tolerant hardwoods. Our objectives were to determine the optimum gap size for regenerating oaks and test the delayed oak dominance hypothesis, in which oaks slowly gain dominance as pioneer species undergo self-thinning. Opening size influenced conifer regeneration but minimally affected hardwoods. Hard mast species density was less than that of either intolerant or tolerant species regardless of opening size. Future stem density trends suggest increasing intolerant species and constant mast and tolerant species. Modeled future height trends suggest increasing mast species dominance over intolerant pioneers after 30 years. Furthermore, our results suggest that gap-based silviculture can be used to regenerate bottomland hardwood stands with desirable species including oaks; larger gaps favor conifers but there was no optimum size to enhance oak regeneration.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Temperature uncertainty modelling with proxy structural data as geostatistical constraints for well siting: an example applied to Granite Springs Valley, NV, USA

Utilizing existing temperature and structural geology information around Granite Springs Valley, Nevada, we build 3D stochastic temperature models with the aims of evaluating the 3D uncertainty of temperature and choosing between candidate exploration well locations. The data used to support the modelling are measured temperatures and structural proxies from 3D geologic modelling (distance to fault, distance to fault intersections and terminations, Coulomb stress change and dilation tendency), the latter considered ‘secondary’ data. Two stochastic geostatistical techniques are explored for incorporating the structural proxies: cosimulation and local varying mean. With both the cosimulation and local varying mean methods, many equally-likely temperature models (i.e. realizations) are produced, from which temperature probability profiles are calculated at candidate well locations. To aid in choosing between the candidate locations, two quantities summarize the temperature probabilities: V prior and entropy. V prior quantifies the likelihood for economic temperatures at each candidate location, whereas entropy identifies where new information has the most potential to reduce uncertainty. In general, the cosimulation realizations have smoother spatial structure, and extrapolate high temperatures at candidate locations that are located along the direction of the longest spatial correlation, which are down dip from existing temperature logs. The smooth realizations result in tight temperature probability profiles that are easier to interpret, but they have unrealistic temperature reversals in some locations because of the dipping ellipsoid shape created and that the cosimulation technique does not enforce a conductive geothermal gradient as a baseline (i.e. linearly increasing temperature with depth). The local varying mean results produce realizations with more realistic geothermal gradients, with temperatures increasing downward since a depth-temperature relationship is included. However, because they have much noisier spatial nature compared to cosimulation, it is harder to interpret the temperature probability profiles. The different local varying mean results allow the geologist to determine which proxy (e.g. dilation v. distance to fault termination) should be used given the specific geothermal system. In general, V prior from local varying mean results identify locations that are close to high values for the structural proxies: areas with higher probabilities for higher temperatures. The entropy results identify where uncertainty is greatest and therefore new drilling information could be most useful. Though these techniques provide useful information, even when applied to areas of sparse data, our comparison of these two techniques demonstrates the need for new geothermal geostatistics techniques that combine the advantages of these two methods and that are tailored to the spatial uncertainty issues inherent in geothermal exploration.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

ARIC 2019 workshop report: The 2nd ACM SIGSPATIAL International Workshop on Advances in Resilient and Intelligent Cities: Chicago, IL, USA November 5, 2019

The advancements in sensor technology and ubiquity of connected devices has enabled the generation of large volume of disparate, dynamic and geographically distributed data both by scientific communities and citizens. With astonishing technological innovations and convergence, there have been major changes in peoples daily activities and social interaction. The socio-technological innovations motivate the concept of smart and connected cities. A smart city, however, is subjected to the same challenges as a conventional city, such as environmental damages, hazard impacts, access to services and resources, due to continuous population and economic growth. Therefore, it is imperative to improve our understanding of Resilient and Intelligent Cities in order to leverage technologies and artificial intelligence to tackle the challenges cities face, which range from climate change, public health, traffic congestion, economic growth, to digital divide, social equity, political movements, and cultural conflicts, among others.

Kar, Bandana↗

Estimating the Effects of Soil Remediation on Children’s Blood Lead near a Former Lead Smelter in Omaha, Nebraska, USA

Lead exposures from legacy sources threaten children’s health. Soil in Omaha, Nebraska, was contaminated by emissions from a lead smelter and refinery. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency excavated and replaced contaminated soil at the Omaha Lead Superfund Site between 1999 and 2016. The goal of this study was to assess the association of soil lead level (SLL) and soil remediation status with blood lead levels (BLLs) in children living near or on the site. We linked information on SLL at residential properties with children’s BLLs and assigned remediation status to children’s BLL measurements based on whether their measurements occurred during residence at remediated or unremediated properties. We examined the association of SLL and remediation status with elevated BLL (EBLL). We distinguished the roles of temporal trend and the intervention with time-by-intervention-status interaction contrasts. All analyses estimated odds ratios (ORs) with a generalized estimating equations approach to ensure robustness under the complex correlations among BLL measurements. All analyses controlled for relevant covariates including children’s characteristics. EBLL (> 5 μg/dL ) was associated with both residential SLL [e.g., OR=2.00; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.83, 2.19; > 400–800 vs. ≤ 200 ppm] and neighborhood SLL [e.g., OR=1.85 (95% CI: 1.62, 2.11; > 400–800 vs. ≤ 200 ppm)] before remediation but only with neighborhood SLL after remediation. The odds of EBLL were higher before remediation [OR 1.52 (95% CI: 1.34, 1.72)]. Similarly, EBLL was positively associated with preremediation status in our interaction analysis [interaction OR=1.18 (95%CI: 1.02, 1.37)]. Residential and neighborhood SLLs were important predictors of EBLLs in children residing near or on this Superfund site. Neighborhood SLL remained a strong predictor following remediation. Our data analyses showed the benefit of soil remediation. Results from the interaction analyses should be interpreted cautiously due to imperfect correspondence of remediation times between remediation and comparison groups. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8657

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Riparian vegetation composition and diversity shows resilience following cessation of livestock grazing in northeastern Oregon, USA

Riparian ecosystem restoration has been accomplished through exclusion of livestock using corridor fencing along hundreds of kilometers of streams in the western United States, for the benefit of riparian-obligate wildlife and endangered fishes. Yet, there are limited scientific studies that have evaluated more than short-term shifts in vegetation composition and diversity at a single location or handful of locations following grazing. We sampled riparian vegetation composition along 11-paired grazed and ungrazed (exclosed) stream reaches in northeastern Oregon. Exclosure ages ranged from 2 to >30 years and grazing treatments varied from light grazing every one out of three years to heavy season-long grazing. Species richness and diversity was higher in the ungrazed reaches (p = 0.002). The abundance of native sedges ( Carex spp.) and broad-leaved forbs were also significantly (p ≤ 0.05) greater in ungrazed areas. In contrast, exotic species adapted to grazing such as Poa pratensis and Trifolium repens were more abundant in grazed stream reaches. The prevalence of hydrophytic species significantly increased (p ≤ 0.01) in ungrazed reaches, (based on wetland species indicator scores), indicating that wetland-dominated communities within the ungrazed stream reaches were replacing ones adapted to drier environments. The increased abundance of facultative and wetland-obligate species in ungrazed reaches compared to grazed reaches suggests that livestock grazing exacerbates those climate change effects also leading to warmer and drier conditions. Further, riparian-obligate shrub cover along the streambank was higher in 7 of 8 exclosures that were older than 5 years (p = 0.05). As a restoration approach, the inherent resilience of riparian ecosystems exhibited in ungrazed riparian zones suggest positive feedbacks to other beneficial ecosystem processes such as increased species and habitat diversity, increased carbon sequestration, enhanced allochthonous inputs and greater sediment retention, that would affect the aquatic and terrestrial biota, water quality, and stream morphology.

Kauffman, J. Boone (ORCID:0000000290202815)↗