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At least 307 records · Page 17

Sustainable network design for multi-purpose pellet processing depots under biomass supply uncertainty

This work develops a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer programming model to manage multi- purpose pellet processing depots under feedstock supply uncertainty. The proposed optimization model would help to minimize cost and to mitigate emissions from the supply chain network. We consider three alternative Biomass Processing and Densi cation Depot (BPDD) technologies; namely, conventional pellet processing, high moisture pellet processing, and ammonia ber expansion. These three technologies pre-process/pre-treat and densify different types of biomass into more highly densi ed intermediate products for different markets in order to improve movability and overall supply network performance in terms of costs and emissions. A hybrid decomposition algorithm was developed that combines sample average approximation with an enhanced Progressive Hedging (PH) algorithm to solve this challenging NP -hard problem. Some heuristics such as Rolling Horizon (RH) heuristic, variable xing technique were later applied to further enhance the PH algorithm. Mississippi and Alabama were selected as a testing ground and ArcGIS was employed to visualize and validate the modeling results. The results of the analysis reveal promising insights that could lead to recommendations to help decision makers achieve a more cost-effective environmentally-friendly supply chain network.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Consistent and reproducible computation of the glass transition temperature from molecular dynamics simulations

In many fields, from semiconductors for opto-electronic applications to ionic liquids (ILs) for separations, the glass transition temperature (Tg) of a material is a useful gauge for its potential use in practical settings. As a result, there is a great deal of interest in predicting Tg using molecular simulations. However, the uncertainty and variation in the trend shift method, a common approach in simulations to predict Tg, can be high. This is due to the need for human intervention in defining a fitting range for linear fits of density with temperature assumed for the liquid and glass phases across the simulated cooling. The definition of such fitting ranges then defines the estimate for the Tg as the intersection of linear fits. We eliminate this need for human intervention by leveraging the Shapiro–Wilk normality test and proposing an algorithm to define the fitting ranges and, consequently, Tg. Through this integration, we incorporate into our automated methodology that residuals must be normally distributed around zero for any fit, a requirement that must be met for any regression problem. Consequently, fitting ranges for realizing linear fits for each phase are statistically defined rather than visually inferred, obtaining an estimate for Tg without any human intervention. The method is also capable of finding multiple linear regimes across density vs temperature curves. We compare the predictions of our proposed method across multiple IL and semiconductor molecular dynamics simulation results from the literature and compare other proposed methods for automatically detecting Tg from density–temperature data. We believe that our proposed method would allow for more consistent predictions of Tg. We make this methodology available and open source through GitHub.

Chemistry↗

Astrophysical Implications of a New Dynamical Mass for the Nearby White Dwarf 40 Eridani B

The bright, nearby DA-type white dwarf (WD) 40 Eridani B is orbited by the M dwarf 40 Eri C, allowing determination of the WD’s mass. Until recently, however, the mass depended on orbital elements determined four decades ago, and that mass was so low that it created several astrophysical puzzles. Using new astrometric measurements, the binary-star group at the U.S. Naval Observatory has revised the dynamical mass upward, to 0.573 ± 0.018 M {sub ☉}. In this paper, we use model-atmosphere analysis to update other parameters of the WD, including effective temperature, surface gravity, radius, and luminosity. We then compare these results with WD interior models. Within the observational uncertainties, theoretical cooling tracks for CO-core WDs of its measured mass are consistent with the position of 40 Eri B in the H-R diagram; equivalently, the theoretical mass–radius relation (MRR) is consistent with the star’s location in the mass–radius plane. This consistency is, however, achieved only if we assume a “thin” outer hydrogen layer, with q {sub H} = M {sub H}/ M {sub WD} ≃ 10{sup −10}. We discuss other evidence that a significant fraction of DA WDs have such thin H layers, in spite of the expectation from canonical stellar-evolution theory of “thick” H layers with q {sub H} ≃ 10{sup −4}. The cooling age of 40 Eri B is ∼122 Myr, and its total age is ∼1.8 Gyr. We present the MRRs for 40 Eri B and three other nearby WDs in visual binaries with precise mass determinations, and show that the agreement of current theory with observations is excellent in all cases.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Kinematic fixtures to enable multi-material printing and rapid non-destructive inspection during two-photon lithography

Here, two-photon lithography (TPL) is a polymerization based technique that enables additive manufacturing of millimeter scale parts with submicron features. TPL equipment is often based on retrofitted optical microscopes that lack precise registration capabilities. Consequently, slow and error-prone visual alignment to fiducials is necessary if registration to pre-existing features is required. Herein, we have designed, built, and tested precise kinematic fixtures that are repeatable to within ±315 nm (3σ value) and passively register the build surface to TPL equipment with an accuracy of ±1.7 μm. This enables one to sequentially print with multiple materials by building the structures directly on top of the kinematic fixtures. In addition, the same fixtures passively register to an X-ray computed tomography (CT) system to enable non-destructive 3D inspection that is integrated with the fabrication process. These fixtures (i) provide a practical means to handle micro-scale parts during non-destructive imaging, (ii) reduce the set-up time for X-ray CT from more than an hour to less than a few minutes, and (iii) eliminate operator uncertainty from the multi-material printing and imaging process. As such, these fixtures enable new printing and imaging functionalities that are critical for high-quality additive manufacturing of multi-material polymer parts with microscale and submicron features.

42 ENGINEERING↗

ARCH: Large-scale knowledge graph via aggregated narrative codified health records analysis

Objective: Electronic health record (EHR) systems contain a wealth of clinical data stored as both codified data and free-text narrative notes (NLP). The complexity of EHR presents challenges in feature representation, information extraction, and uncertainty quantification. Here, to address these challenges, we proposed an efficient Aggregated naRrative Codified Health (ARCH) records analysis to generate a large-scale knowledge graph (KG) for a comprehensive set of EHR codified and narrative features. Methods: Using data from 12.5 million Veterans Affairs patients, ARCH first derives embedding vectors and generates similarities along with associated p-values to measure the strength of relatedness between clinical features with statistical certainty quantification. Next, ARCH performs a sparse embedding regression to remove indirect linkage between features to build a sparse KG. Finally, ARCH was validated on various clinical tasks, including detecting known relationships between entity pairs, predicting drug side effects, disease phenotyping, as well as sub-typing Alzheimer’s disease patients. Results: ARCH produces high-quality clinical embeddings and KG for over 60,000 codified and narrative EHR concepts. The KG and embeddings are visualized in the R-shiny powered web-API.3 ARCH achieved high accuracy in detecting EHR concept relationships, with AUCs of 0.926 (codified) and 0.861 (NLP) for similar EHR concepts, and 0.810 (codified) and 0.843 (NLP) for related pairs. It detected drug side effects with a 0.723 AUC, which improved to 0.826 after fine-tuning. Using both codified and NLP features, the detection power increased significantly. Compared to other methods, ARCH has superior accuracy and enhances weakly supervised phenotyping algorithms’ performance. Notably, it successfully categorized Alzheimer’s patients into two subgroups with varying mortality rates. Conclusion: The proposed ARCH algorithm generates large-scale high-quality semantic representations and knowledge graph for both codified and NLP EHR features, useful for a wide range of predictive modeling tasks.

Electronic health records↗

NGEE Arctic 2019 Alder Ground Truth Survey, Seward Peninsula AK

In July 2019 we made traveled the road system outside of Nome, AK and detailed the GPS coordinates of alder shrublands for the purpose of ground-truthing alder maps of the region. Both visual and ground-based observations were made for patches of alder shrublands greater 5x5m and larger, ideally 10x10m. Visual observations were made from the car and GPS coordinates are approximate, placed by dropping pins on georeferenced pdfs using the Avenza app. Visual observations included positive identified alder shrublands as well as thickets of non-alder shrubs. Ground Observations were made at a subset of locations where we were able to hike to alders shrubland areas. Ground observations include GPS points (made with Garmin InReach) as well as relevant features of a centrally located, representative alder shrub in the patch (max height, basal diameter of all ramets, soil depth). Aboveground biomass (weight dry mass) of the surveyed shrub was calculated based on alder-specific allometric equations in Berner et al 2015 which our team checked for accuracy for the Seward Peninsula as part of Salmon et al 2019. This dataset contains three data files, three data dictionaries, and one file-level metadata file all in*.csv format plus one *.txt README file. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Near Real-Time Two and Three-Dimensional Electrical Geophysical Monitoring of Natural and Engineered Processes Associated with Subsurface Remediation - 16052

Legacy soil and groundwater contamination associated with nuclear weapons production is projected to be one of the largest cleanup liabilities to the U.S. Department of Energy for the foreseeable future. Remediation of subsurface contaminants is complicated by the combined effects of geochemical heterogeneity, geological heterogeneity, and the difficulty and expense of adequate borehole access. Each of these complications contributes to uncertainty in the distribution of contaminants and the performance of in situ treatments, which increases risk to human health and the environment and cost to closure in general. Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is a method of remotely imaging the electrical properties of the subsurface, which are governed by both geochemical and geological structure, thereby providing useful proxies for understanding contaminant distribution and the behavior in situ remediation processes. Recent advancements in both data collection and data processing capabilities are enabling ERT monitoring to be executed and provided to site operators in near real-time. To summarize the process, ERT surveys are rapidly and continuously collected during a time-sensitive operation such as an amendment injection. At the completion of each survey, data are transferred by wireless internet to offsite supercomputing resources for parallel tomographic inversion. Inversion results are then transferred back to onsite operators and/or other locations for visualization. In this paper, we demonstrate the utility of time-lapse ERT for monitoring fluid transport (both gas and liquid phase). We then demonstrate two real-time imaging applications for monitoring both natural and engineered processes at the Hanford Site within the vadose and the saturated zones. We expect this new capability for autonomous real-time imaging to enable ERT to be used as a cost-effective, short-term rapid feedback mechanism for guiding subsurface remediation injections, in addition to longer term monitoring of post-injection performance and environmental impact, all using the same electrode array and instrumentation. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Principles and Options for Designing Battery Energy Storage Zoning Ordinances

Deployment of battery energy storage (BESS) systems, both standalone and as part of hybrid systems paired with generation, has rapidly increased in the United States in recent years as utilities and communities have deployed storage to improve electric grid reliability and act as a cost-effective alternative to larger grid infrastructure. The modular nature of BESS technologies means systems may be built near other existing land uses, creating the potential for conflicts with neighboring landowners that can be managed and mitigated through zoning and permitting requirements established by local jurisdictions. While many cities and counties have adopted ordinances specific to BESS into their local zoning codes, these ordinances vary significantly in their requirements and level of detail. Meanwhile, many other jurisdictions, including those home to proposed or existing BESS projects, lack any specific language related to BESS in their zoning codes. Local planning and zoning officials have limited capacity and may lack the familiarity with BESS technologies needed to develop ordinances or otherwise make reasonable zoning decisions that balance safety, community impacts, and other goals. The resulting uncertainty at the local zoning level has led developers to withdraw projects in some areas and has spurred moratoria or bans on energy storage projects in others. This report intends to provide practical resources for practitioners interested in reasonable and effective local regulation of battery energy storage. It does not present a model zoning ordinance, but rather is intended to complement model ordinances developed by others by providing additional context and analysis regarding the structure of energy storage zoning ordinances and the decision points for local officials. Zoning ordinances at the city, town, and county level across the U.S. were surveyed alongside two template model ordinances to identify common elements and options for regulating the zoning and siting of BESS. Common elements identified and analyzed include definitions and general requirements, including cutoffs or tiers used to apply regulations to different system sizes and the permitted zones where jurisdictions allow BESS to be sited; visual, noise, and aesthetic requirements, including property line setbacks, fencing and visual screening, noise, and lighting requirements; and safety and planning requirements, such as site plans, decommissioning plans or funds, and requirements for access by emergency services. The report also summarizes some of the more unique regulations, including those that place additional restrictions on BESS at the local level.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A Decision-Based Iterative Modeling Framework for Probabilistic Performance Assessments - 18441

Radiological probabilistic performance assessments (PPAs) employ highly complex computer models to simulate the release of radionuclides from wastes in an engineered disposal facility, migration of these radionuclides over time, and resulting radiological dose to potentially exposed individuals. An iterative approach to PPA modeling is described to help define the appropriate complexity of the computer model. An initial model is developed that addresses all relevant processes and media, but that employs preliminary statistical parameter distributions to minimize the initial effort expended. Where appropriate, transport and exposure submodels with simplifying assumptions are also used in the initial model. Different assumptions and boundaries may be explored with the initial model to assess their importance in constraining model results. Exploration of the results of the initial model are used to determine the benefits of model refinements, and to guide such refinements to focus on specific areas of the model that most influence the model outputs of interest. This approach promotes efficiency and model parsimony, but does not compromise defensibility when performed in a transparent manner. Key model boundaries for a PPA include the time frame of the modeling (temporal boundaries), where future human receptors may be located (spatial boundaries), and what types of land uses and activities may exist in the future (exposure scenarios). Simplified transport and exposure models can be useful in helping decision makers and stakeholders establish such boundaries by analyzing the consequences of selecting different bounds and understanding which assumptions and boundaries have the greatest influence on the magnitude and distribution of model results. Pathway analysis and parameter sensitivity analysis performed on PPA model results are key components of the iterative modeling approach. The objective of pathway analysis is to identify the critical radionuclides and pathways contributing to radiation dose during the modeling performance period. An environmental 'pathway' is described by the connections from a waste package or cell in the disposal facility to a future human exposure event. These connections are commonly visualized using graphical means. A simple example of a potentially complete pathway for radon-222 is: radium-containing waste → radon emanation → upwards diffusion in cap material → diffusion/advection into a future building → inhalation exposure to a building occupant Parameter sensitivity analysis is conducted on the results of a PPA to identify those specific model input parameters whose distribution of values contributes the most to the distribution of target model output, such as annual radiation dose. Pathway and sensitivity analyses on initial modeling results provide information for guiding subsequent model development, and possibly interim decisions, by informing questions tied to the modeling objectives and performance criteria. For example, questions related to radiological doses from existing disposals may include: 1. Is radiation dose from radiological exposures either obviously negligible or obviously unacceptable based on initial modeling results? 2. If dose is not obviously negligible or unacceptable relative to applicable performance criteria, what model refinements would reduce uncertainty in the results to better inform decisions? (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Characterization of Mk-IV and EBR-II X441A Metallic Fuel Pins for the THOR-C-2 and THOR-M-TOP-1 Experiments: Results from Post-Transient Neutron Tomography of THOR-C-2 Capsule and Pre-transient Non-Destructive and Destructive Examination of DP 36 and DP 40 (Rev.1)

Current interest in sodium-cooled fast reactor designs, such as TerraPower’s Natrium Reactor, has highlighted the need for advanced-reactor fuel technology development. A Fuel Safety Research and Development (FSRD) program for metallic fast reactor fuels has been created to achieve comprehensive safety testing within the re-commissioned Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility at the Idaho National Laboratory. Despite over 60 years of metallic fuel irradiation, uncertainties exist in the performance of the fuel system, particularly under anticipated operational occurrences and severe accident scenarios. Throughout historical testing within the Experimental Breeder Reactor (EBR)-II and the Fast Flux Test Facility, fuel behavior has demonstrated benign response to transient reactor conditions; however, accurate predictions of failure thresholds rely heavily on fuel composition and irradiation history. In advancing the FSRD program, two planned transient heating experiments are at various stages of completion. The Temperature Heat sink Overpower Response (THOR)-C-2, fueled with an unirradiated Mk IV U-10Zr pin, has undergone transient irradiation in TREAT and post-transient three-dimensional neutron tomography. Additionally, pre-transient characterization of test and sibling U-19Pu-10Zr pins for THOR-M-TOP-1 was evaluated by both non-destructive and destructive methods. The test and sibling pins were selected from previously irradiated EBR-II experiment X441A. Both pins underwent visual examination, precise gamma spectrometry, two-dimensional neutron radiography, and element contact profilometry while the sibling pin was additionally subjected to sectioning and optical microscopy. THOR-C-2 radiography captured the fuel and cladding relocation during the intermediate transient at the top and bottom of the THOR capsule, allowing key features to be linked to the pin’s measured thermal response. For THOR M TOP 1, a solid baseline for steady-state behavior has been established. No anomalous features were identified in either the test or sibling pin. Defining characteristics and features were recorded for further comparisons.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Super-resolution reconstruction in frequency, image, and wavelet domains to reduce through-plane partial voluming in MRI

Purpose: To compare and evaluate the use of super-resolution reconstruction (SRR), in frequency, image, and wavelet domains, to reduce through-plane partial voluming effects in magnetic resonance imaging. Methods: The reconstruction of an isotropic high-resolution image from multiple thick-slice scans has been investigated through techniques in frequency, image, and wavelet domains. Experiments were carried out with thick-slice T2-weighted fast spin echo sequence on the Academic College of Radiology MRI phantom, where the reconstructed images were compared to a reference high-resolution scan using peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR), structural similarity image metric (SSIM), mutual information (MI), and the mean absolute error (MAE) of image intensity profiles. The application of super-resolution reconstruction was then examined in retrospective processing of clinical neuroimages of ten pediatric patients with tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) to reduce through-plane partial voluming for improved 3D delineation and visualization of thin radial bands of white matter abnormalities. Results: Quantitative evaluation results show improvements in all evaluation metrics through super-resolution reconstruction in the frequency, image, and wavelet domains, with the highest values obtained from SRR in the image domain. The metric values for image-domain SRR versus the original axial, coronal, and sagittal images were PSNR = 32.26 vs 32.22, 32.16, 30.65; SSIM = 0.931 vs 0.922, 0.924, 0.918; MI = 0.871 vs 0.842, 0.844, 0.831; and MAE = 5.38 vs 7.34, 7.06, 6.19. All similarity metrics showed high correlations with expert ranking of image resolution with MI showing the highest correlation at 0.943. Qualitative assessment of the neuroimages of ten TSC patients through in-plane and out-of-plane visualization of structures showed the extent of partial voluming effect in a real clinical scenario and its reduction using SRR. Blinded expert evaluation of image resolution in resampled out-of-plane views consistently showed the superiority of SRR compared to original axial and coronal image acquisitions. Conclusions: Thick-slice 2D T2-weighted MRI scans are part of many routine clinical protocols due to their high signal-to-noise ratio, but are often severely affected by through-plane partial voluming effects. This study shows that while radiologic assessment is performed in 2D on thick-slice scans, super-resolution MRI reconstruction techniques can be used to fuse those scans to generate a high-resolution image with reduced partial voluming for improved postacquisition processing. Qualitative and quantitative evaluation showed the efficacy of all SRR techniques with the best results obtained from SRR in the image domain. The limitations of SRR techniques are uncertainties in modeling the slice profile, density compensation, quantization in resampling, and uncompensated motion between scans.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Graphics to facilitate informative discussion and team decision making

Everyone knows the expression “A picture is worth a thousand words,” and this effectively summarizes the ability of graphical summaries to convey information and persuade. However, in many cases, the goal for the right visualization is to encourage and guide discussion while helping focus a team to make carefully considered, defensible, and data-driven decisions. The aims of graphics differ if we are trying to communicate the merits of a single choice versus outlining several contending alternatives for further comparison and discussion. These choices each have their own strengths and weaknesses depending on how we value different criteria. They also serve different purposes at various stages of decision making. Often the role of statisticians is not to provide a single answer but to provide rich information and summaries in a manageable and compact form to enable productive discussion among team members. Through a series of diverse examples, this work present principles and strategies for encouraging discussion and informed decision making and discuss how they can be integrated with versatile use of graphical tools for examining multiple objectives, framing trade-offs between alternatives, and examining the impact of subjective priorities and uncertainty on the final decision.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Impurity gas detection for SNF canisters using probabilistic deep learning and acoustic sensing *

Abstract Monitoring impurity gases in spent nuclear fuel (SNF) canisters is a novel structural health monitoring approach for SNF in dry storage. The SNF canisters are sealed containers that do not facilitate visual access to the inside. Acoustic sensing can be deployed by taking advantage of the pathways unobstructed by internal hardware. Although the ultrasonic time-of-flight measurement can provide valuable information, it is limited in its ability to discern the concentration of only one impurity gas. As such, deep learning algorithms, particularly convolutional neural networks (CNNs), offer a promising solution. In this study, CNN-based probabilistic deep learning models were implemented to detect and quantify multiple impurity gases in helium. An experimental platform was established to simulate canister conditions, and ultrasonic test data were collected. The presence of argon and air in helium at concentrations ranging from 0% to 1.2% at increments of 0.05% was considered. The multi-layer perceptron, decision tree, and logistic regression classifiers achieved high accuracies when distinguishing pure helium from helium with impurities. CNN with dropout layers and CNN using maximum likelihood estimation showed a similar performance, indicating their ability to capture uncertainties. The ensemble CNN model exhibited improved predictions and the ability to balance individual gas concentration by integrating 1D- and 2D-CNN models. These findings contribute probabilistic deep learning solutions for impurity gas detection and analysis within SNF canisters, thus ensuring safe storage and management of SNFs.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Structural Health Monitoring for Impact Damage in Composite Structures.

Composite structures are increasing in prevalence throughout the aerospace, wind, defense, and transportation industries, but the many advantages of these materials come with unique challenges, particularly in inspecting and repairing these structures. Because composites of- ten undergo sub-surface damage mechanisms which compromise the structure without a clear visual indication, inspection of these components is critical to safely deploying composite re- placements to traditionally metallic structures. Impact damage to composites presents one of the most signi fi cant challenges because the area which is vulnerable to impact damage is generally large and sometimes very dif fi cult to access. This work seeks to further evolve iden- ti fi cation technology by developing a system which can detect the impact load location and magnitude in real time, while giving an assessment of the con fi dence in that estimate. Fur- thermore, we identify ways by which impact damage could be more effectively identi fi ed by leveraging impact load identi fi cation information to better characterize damage. The impact load identi fi cation algorithm was applied to a commercial scale wind turbine blade, and results show the capability to detect impact magnitude and location using a single accelerometer, re- gardless of sensor location. A technique for better evaluating the uncertainty of the impact estimates was developed by quantifying how well the impact force estimate meets the assump- tions underlying the force estimation technique. This uncertainty quanti fi cation technique was found to reduce the 95% con fi dence interval by more than a factor of two for impact force estimates showing the least uncertainty, and widening the 95% con fi dence interval by a fac- tor of two for the most uncertain force estimates, avoiding the possibility of understating the uncertainty associated with these estimates. Linear vibration based damage detection tech- niques were investigated in the context of structural stiffness reductions and impact damage. A method by which the sensitivity to damage could be increased for simple structures was presented, and the challenges of applying that technique to a more complex structure were identi fi ed. The structural dynamic changes in a weak adhesive bond were investigated, and the results showed promise for identifying weak bonds that show little or no static reduction in stiffness. To address these challenges in identifying highly localized impact damage, the possi- bility of detecting damage through nonlinear dynamic characteristics was also identi fi ed, with a proposed technique which would leverage impact location estimates to enable the detection of impact damage. This nonlinear damage identi fi cation concept was evaluated on a composite panel with a substructure disbond, and the results showed that the nonlinear dynamics at the damage site could be observed without a baseline healthy reference. By further developing impact load identi fi cation technology and combining load and damage estimation techniques into an integrated solution, the challenges associated with impact detection in composite struc- tures can be effectively solved, thereby reducing costs, improving safety, and enhancing the operational readiness and availability of high value assets.

Roach, Dennis P.↗

WINS. Market Simulation Tool for Facilitating Wind Energy Integration

Integrating 20% or more wind energy into the system and transmitting large sums of wind energy over long distances will require a decision making capability that can handle very large scale power systems with tens of thousands of buses and lines. There is a need to explore innovative analytical and implementation solutions for continuing reliable operations with the most economical integration of additional wind energy in power systems. A number of wind integration solution paths involve the adoption of new operating policies, dynamic scheduling of wind power across interties, pooling integration services, and adopting new transmission scheduling practices. Such practices can be examined by the decision tool developed by this project. This project developed a very efficient decision tool called Wind INtegration Simulator (WINS) and applied WINS to facilitate wind energy integration studies. WINS focused on augmenting the existing power utility capabilities to support collaborative planning, analysis, and wind integration project implementations. WINS also had the capability of simulating energy storage facilities so that feasibility studies of integrated wind energy system applications can be performed for systems with high wind energy penetrations. The development of WINS represents a major expansion of a very efficient decision tool called POwer Market Simulator (POMS), which was developed by IIT and has been used extensively for power system studies for decades. Specifically, WINS provides the following superiorities; (1) An integrated framework is included in WINS for the comprehensive modeling of DC transmission configurations, including mono-pole, bi-pole, tri-pole, back-to-back, and multi-terminal connection, as well as AC/DC converter models including current source converters (CSC) and voltage source converters (VSC); (2) An existing shortcoming of traditional decision tools for wind integration is the limited availability of user interface, i.e., decision results are often text-based demonstrations. WINS includes a powerful visualization tool and user interface capability for transmission analyses, planning, and assessment, which will be of great interest to power market participants, power system planners and operators, and state and federal regulatory entities; and (3) WINS can handle extended transmission models for wind integration studies. WINS models include limitations on transmission flow as well as bus voltage for analyzing power system states. The existing decision tools often consider transmission flow constraints (dc power flow) alone which could result in the over-utilization of existing resources when analyzing wind integration. WINS can be used to assist power market participants including transmission companies, independent system operators, power system operators in vertically integrated utilities, wind energy developers, and regulatory agencies to analyze economics, security, and reliability of various options for wind integration including transmission upgrades and the planning of new transmission facilities. WINS can also be used by industry for the offline training of reliability and operation personnel when analyzing wind integration uncertainties, identifying critical spots in power system operation, analyzing power system vulnerabilities, and providing credible decisions for examining operation and planning options for wind integration. Researches in this project on wind integration included (1) Development of WINS; (2) Transmission Congestion Analysis in the Eastern Interconnection; (3) Analysis of 2030 Large-Scale Wind Energy Integration in the Eastern Interconnection; (4) Large-scale Analysis of 2018 Wind Energy Integration in the Eastern U.S. Interconnection. The research resulted in 33 papers, 9 presentations, 9 PhD degrees, 4 MS degrees, and 7 awards. The education activities in this project on wind energy included (1) Wind Energy Training Facility Development; (2) Wind Energy Course Development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

An Applied Strategy for Using Empirical and Hybrid Models in Online Monitoring

The monitoring of plant equipment for failure prediction is one of the key contributors to operation and maintenance (O&M) costs for a nuclear power plant (NPP) because O&M monitoring depends on labor-intensive activities that are required to meet high equipment reliability standards. These activities rely primarily on humans for information gathering, condition diagnosis, and predictive analysis. Online monitoring aims to automate these activities by relying on sensors to replace human information gathering and machine learning to replace human analysis and decision making. To facilitate automated monitoring, a systematic strategy for anomaly detection is needed to optimally use the available sensor data, empirical models, and physics-supported models. This strategy is essential to provide credible reasoning on why and when an empirical (i.e., purely data-driven) versus hybrid (i.e., physics-supported) approach should be used and to determine the ideal mix of these two approaches for a defined anomaly detection scope. The extant methods usually adopt an ad hoc trial-and-error approach that, in addition to being time-consuming and costly, is also highly subjective; it is impacted by the background and the skill set of the personnel making the decisions. Thus, such an approach cannot guarantee an optimum outcome. This represents the motivation of the current research effort, which is focused on devising a scientifically supported strategy for the optimum selection of anomaly detection methods. This report presents a detailed assessment of the main anomaly detection techniques within the empirical or hybrid method streams. Empirical methods include pattern, statistical, and causal inference. Hybrid methods include the use of physics models to train and test data methods, reduce data dimensionality, reduce data-model complexity, augment data, and reduce empirical uncertainty; hybrid methods also include the use of data to tune physics models. The listed techniques within these two streams represent the vast majority of techniques performed for anomaly detection. Using the techniques as outcomes, a strategy was developed to enable a systematic decision-making process to lead to one of these techniques. The strategy is driven by key decision points related to data relevance, simple modeling feasibility, data inference, physics-modeling value, data dimensionality, physics knowledge, method of validation, performance, data availability and suitability for training and testing, cause-effect, entropy inference, and model fitting. Each of these decision points in the strategy is explained in detail in this report with examples, along with the scientific basis behind the decisions and outcomes in common and simplified terminology. The strategy is developed for use by any NPP staff with basic engineering or science knowledge. A user-friendly graphical state flow diagram was also developed as a visual presentation of the strategy. The strategy was tested and demonstrated through two pilot projects for the application of anomaly detection at an NPP. Each pilot had two use cases: an initial case in which certain decisions were made that resulted in one or more empirical techniques and a revised use case where one or more key decisions were modified resulting in using a set of hybrid methods.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Gamma-Ray Imaging to Monitor Accumulating Holdup

Over time, nuclear materials can accumulate in process equipment and keeping track of such material is of interest to many stakeholder communities including safeguards, process monitoring, criticality safety, and radiological safety. Passive gamma-ray imaging provides a visual and quantitative tool that can be applied to this problem, allowing one to determine the amount of material present from the images. In this work we emulate the accumulation of highly enriched uranium (HEU) in a large rectangular stainless-steel duct by stacking 5, 27 × 50 cm2 cards, each of which has approximately 11 g of 235U in oxide form distributed across its surface, behind each other. A series of images were collected using a coded-aperture gamma-ray imager, starting with a single card, adding a second card, etc. Long integrations were collected to allow evaluating the performance of the approach as a function of integration time. The images are analyzed using first principles to determine the amount of material in each image. The results are compared to the known amount of material in each configuration, and as a function of time. The analysis includes a first-principles error propagation and to further evaluate the uncertainty, a boot-strap sampling approach is also applied to the data. The work offers a proof of concept for unattended monitoring of uranium holdup with a quantitative gamma-ray imaging technique.

Ziock, Klaus-Peter↗

Analysis of molecular hydrogen absorption toward QSO B0642–5038 for a varying proton-to-electron mass ratio

Rovibronic molecular hydrogen (H{sub 2}) transitions at redshift z {sub abs} ≅ 2.659 toward the background quasar B0642–5038 are examined for a possible cosmological variation in the proton-to-electron mass ratio μ. We utilize an archival spectrum from the Very Large Telescope/Ultraviolet and Visual Echelle Spectrograph (UVES) with a signal-to-noise ratio of ∼35 per 2.5 km s{sup –1} pixel at the observed H{sub 2} wavelengths (335-410 nm). Some 111 H{sub 2} transitions in the Lyman and Werner bands have been identified in the damped Lyα system for which a kinetic gas temperature of ∼84 K and a molecular fraction log f = –2.18 ± 0.08 are determined. The H{sub 2} absorption lines are included in a comprehensive fitting method, which allows us to extract a constraint on a variation of the proton-electron mass ratio Δμ/μ from all transitions at once. We obtain Δμ/μ = (17.1 ± 4.5{sub stat} ± 3.7{sub sys}) × 10{sup –6}. However, we find evidence that this measurement has been affected by wavelength miscalibration errors recently identified in UVES. A correction based on observations of objects with solar-like spectra gives a smaller Δμ/μ value and contributes to a larger systematic uncertainty: Δμ/μ = (12.7 ± 4.5{sub stat} ± 4.2{sub sys}) × 10{sup –6}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗