Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Variance to Mean”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2003

Low Earth Orbit Plasma Variability Model

The empirical International Reference Ionosphere is a widely used model for estimating low Earth orbit plasma characteristics for use in spacecraft design and mission analysis. The climatological model provides mean values of plasma density, temperature, composition, and other ionospheric parameters that can be used to estimate the average magnitude of spacecraft charging, current collection for electrodynamic tethers, and other effects on spacecraft design. Mean IRI parameters are not adequate to answer questions such as what is the maximum or minimum value of the spacecraft potential, does the maximum spacecraft potential exceed a program requirement, will an electrodynamic tether provide adequate drag to deorbit a satellite at end of life, and will the tether provide sufficient thrust to reboost a spacecraft at any time in the solar cycle. These questions require estimates of the variability of the ionospheric environment about the mean values. This presentation describes the status of work at MSFC to develop an empirical ionospheric variability model that can be used in conjunction with the climatological IRI model to provide both mean ionospheric parameters and variations of the environment about the mean. Our technique will use an extensive database of satellite and radar observations of the electron density and temperature to derive variances of the data about the model values. The variances will then be incorporated into Fortran wrapper software that calls the IRI-2001 model and provides statistical estimates of the deviation of the environment about the mean IRI values. We will provide an update on the state of the database development and provide examples of analysis and modeling efforts completed specifically for an International Space Station application.

Minow, Joseph I.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Changes of snow cover, temperature, and radiative heat balance over the Northern Hemisphere

Contemporary large-scale changes in satellite-derived snow cover were examined over the Northern Hemisphere extratropical land (NEL) areas. These areas encompass 55% of the land in the Northern Hemisphere. Snow cover (S) transient regions, the 'centers of action' relative to interannual variations of snow cover, were identified for the years 1972-1992. During these years a global retreat in snow cover extent (SE) occurred in the second half of the hydrologic year (April-September). Mean annual SE has decreased by 10% (2.3 x 10(exp 6) sq km). Negative trends account for one-third to one-half of the interannual continental variance of SE. The historical influence of S on the planetary albedo and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is investigated. The mean annual response of the S feedback on the radiative balance (RB) is negative and suggests a largescale heat redistribution. During autumn and early winter (up to January), however, the feedback of S on the planetary RB may be positive. Only by February does the cooling effect of S (due to albedo increase) dominate the planetary warming due to reduced OLR over the S. Despite a wintertime maximum in SE, the feedback in spring has the greatest magnitude. The global retreat of spring SE should lead to a positive feedback on temperature. Based on observed records of S, changes in RB are calculated that parallel an observed increase of spring temperature during the past 20 years. The results provide a partial explanation of the significant increase in spring surface air temperature observed over the land areas of the Northern Hemisphere during the past century. The mean SE in years with an El Nino and La Nina were also evaluated. El Nino events are generally accompanied by increased SE over the NEL during the first half of the hydrological year. In the second half of the hydrologic year (spring and summer), the El Nino events are accompanied by a global retreat of SE.

Groisman, Pavel YA.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Jet stream winds - Comparisons of analyses with independent aircraft data over Southwest Asia

Cruise-level wind data from commercial aircraft are obtained, and these data are compared with operational jet stream analyses over southwest Asia, an area of limited conventional data. Results from an ensemble of 11 cases during January 1989 and individual cases during December 1988-March 1989 are presented. The key results are: (1) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Meteorological Center, and United Kingdom Meteorological Office analyses of the subtropical jet in southwest Asia are 11 percent, 17 percent, and 17 percent weaker, respectively, than aircraft observations; (2) analyzed poleward shears range up to 1 f (0.00007/s) compared with up to 3 f (0.00021/s) in the aircraft observations where f is the local Coriolis parameters; (3) the ECMWF errors are largest at the base of the jet; (4) the mean ECMWF core location is latitudinally correct but has an rms latitude variance of 1.5 deg; (5) isolated erroneous radiosondes produce unmeteorological structures in the analyzed subtropical jet stream; and (6) the increased utilization of automated aircraft reports is likely to produce a spurious secular increase in the apparent strength of the jets. The magnitude and spatial extent of the errors seen are near limits of current GCM resolution (100 km) but should be resolvable. The results imply that studies of GCM systematic jet stream wind errors in weather and climate forecasts must be interpreted with caution in this region.

Tenenbaum, J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Automated Monitoring with a BSP Fault-Detection Test

The figure schematically illustrates a method and procedure for automated monitoring of an asset, as well as a hardware- and-software system that implements the method and procedure. As used here, asset could signify an industrial process, power plant, medical instrument, aircraft, or any of a variety of other systems that generate electronic signals (e.g., sensor outputs). In automated monitoring, the signals are digitized and then processed in order to detect faults and otherwise monitor operational status and integrity of the monitored asset. The major distinguishing feature of the present method is that the fault-detection function is implemented by use of a Bayesian sequential probability (BSP) technique. This technique is superior to other techniques for automated monitoring because it affords sensitivity, not only to disturbances in the mean values, but also to very subtle changes in the statistical characteristics (variance, skewness, and bias) of the monitored signals.

Bickford, Randall L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Radar and Lidar Radar DEM

Using radar and lidar data, the aim is to improve 3D rendering of terrain, including digital elevation models (DEM) and estimates of vegetation height and biomass in a variety of forest types and terrains. The 3D mapping of vegetation structure and the analysis are useful to determine the role of forest in climate change (carbon cycle), in providing habitat and as a provider of socio-economic services. This in turn will lead to potential for development of more effective land-use management. The first part of the project was to characterize the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission DEM error with respect to ICESat/GLAS point estimates of elevation. We investigated potential trends with latitude, canopy height, signal to noise ratio (SNR), number of LiDAR waveform peaks, and maximum peak width. Scatter plots were produced for each variable and were fitted with 1st and 2nd degree polynomials. Higher order trends were visually inspected through filtering with a mean and median filter. We also assessed trends in the DEM error variance. Finally, a map showing how DEM error was geographically distributed globally was created.

remote sensing↗
NASA NTRS2017

Development of Gridded Innovations and Observations Supplement to MERRA-2

Atmospheric reanalysis have become an important source of data for weather and climate research, owing to the continuity of the data, but especially because of the multitude of observational data included (radiosondes, commercial aircraft, retrieved data products and radiances). However, the presence of assimilated observations can vary based on numerous factors, and so it is difficult or impossible for a researcher to say with any degree of certainty how many and what type of observations contributed to the reanalysis data they are using at any give point in time or space. For example, quality control, transmission interruptions, and station outages can occasionally affect data availability. While orbital paths can be known, drift in certain instruments and the large number of available instruments makes it challenging to know which satellite is observing any region at any point in the diurnal cycle. Furthermore, there is information from the statistics generated by the data assimilation that can help understand the model and the quality of the reanalysis. Typically, the assimilated observations and their innovations are in observation-space data formats and have not been made easily available to reanalysis users.A test data set has been developed to make the MERRA-2 assimilated observations available for rapid and general use, by simplifying the data format. The observations are binned to a grid similar as MERRA-2 and saved as netCDF. This data collection includes the mean and number of observations in the bin as well as its variance. The data will also include the innovations from the data assimilation, the forecast departure and the analysis increment, as well as bias correction (for satellite radiances). We refer to this proof-of-concept data as the MERRA-2 Gridded Innovations and Observations (GIO). In this paper, we present the data format and its strengths and limitations with some initial testing and validation of the methodology.

SSMI↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Convergence of Analysis Produced by Overlapping Assimilation Streams

When conducting a reanalysis for a long period, it is common to do so using multiple, parallel computational schemes. A period of overlap is included to foster continuity between successive streams. At the GMAO, the overlap period is one year. By the end of that period, the time mean anlysis for corresponding overlapped months are almost identical, as desired. The variances of differences at corresponding analysis times within each month, however, do not converge to zero. Instead their monthly variances converge to values that are a significant fraction of the the estimated variances of analysis errors. This occurs although the overlapping streams use the same observations, assimilation model, and assimilation algorithm, differing only in the background applied information applied at the beginning of the overlap period.

Errico, Ronald M.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Development of Gridded Innovations and Observations Supplement to MERRA-2

Atmospheric reanalysis have become an important source of data for weather and climate research, owing to the continuity of the data, but especially because of the multitude of observational data included (radiosondes, commercial aircraft, retrieved data products and radiances). However, the presence of assimilated observations can vary based on numerous factors, and so it is difficult or impossible for a researcher to say with any degree of certainty how many and what type of observations contributed to the reanalysis data they are using at any give point in time or space, or their contribution to the eventual analyzed fields. For example, quality control, transmission interruptions, and station outages can occasionally affect data availability. While orbital paths are known, drift in certain instruments, cloud clearing, and the large number of available instruments makes it challenging to know which satellite is observing any region at any point in the diurnal cycle. Furthermore, there is information from the statistics generated by the data assimilation that can help understand the model and the quality of the reanalysis. Typically, the assimilated observations and their innovations are saved in observation-space data formats and are not easily made available to reanalysis users.Here, we present an early version of a data set has been developed to make the MERRA-2 assimilated observations available for rapid and general use, by simplifying the data format. The observations are binned to a grid similar as MERRA-2 and saved as netCDF. This data collection includes the mean and number of observations in the bin as well as its variance. The data will also include the innovations from the data assimilation, the forecast departure and the analysis increment, as well as bias correction (for satellite radiances). In this paper, we present the data format (called MERRA-2 Gridded Innovations and Observations or GIO) and its strengths and limitations with some initial testing and validation of the methodology.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗
NASA NTRS1983

On the role of the seasonal cycle

The definition of the seasonal cycle as the projection of an atmospheric time series onto a suitably defined subset of orthogonal basis functions guarantees that any atmospheric covariance may be expressed as the sum of a seasonal cycle part and a transient part (where transient refers to departures from the seasonal cycle rather than the time mean). Results are presented for the seasonal cycle contribution to the zonally averaged fluxes of momentum and heat, and for the zonally averaged height variance, in data for: the winter season, the winter season with the Fourier basis set appropriate for the seven-year time series, and the seven-year mean. The Fourier basis set calculation indicates that the interannual variability of the momentum flux is dominated by the interactions between the seasonal cycle and the meteorologically low frequency flow.

Straus, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS1986

The use of multidate multichannel radiance data in urban feature analysis

Two images were obtained from thematic mappers on Landsats 4 and 5 over the Washington, DC area during November 1982 and March 1984. Selected training areas containing different types of urban land use were examined,one area consisting entirely of forest. Mean digital radiance values for each bandpass in each image were examined, and variances, standard deviations, and covariances between bandpasses were calculated. It has been found that two bandpasses caused forested areas to stand out from other land use types, especially for the November 1982 image. In order to evaluate quantitatively the possible utility of the principal components analysis in selected feature extraction, the eigenvectors were evaluated for principal axes rotations which rendered each selected land use type most separable from all other land use types. The evaluated eigenvectors were plotted as a function of land use type, whose order was decided by considering anticipated shadow component and by examining the relative loadings indicative of vegetation for each of the principal components for the different features considered. The analysis was performed for each seven-band image separately and for the two combined images. It was found that by combining the two images, more dramatic land use type separation could be obtained.

Duggin, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Accounting for crustal magnetization in models of the core magnetic field

The problem of determining the magnetic field originating in the earth's core in the presence of remanent and induced magnetization is considered. The effect of remanent magnetization in the crust on satellite measurements of the core magnetic field is investigated. The crust as a zero-mean stationary Gaussian random process is modelled using an idea proposed by Parker (1988). It is shown that the matrix of second-order statistics is proportional to the Gram matrix, which depends only on the inner-products of the appropriate Green's functions, and that at a typical satellite altitude of 400 km the data are correlated out to an angular separation of approximately 15 deg. Accurate and efficient means of calculating the matrix elements are given. It is shown that the variance of measurements of the radial component of a magnetic field due to the crust is expected to be approximately twice that in horizontal components.

Jackson, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS1995

Error modeling for differential GPS

Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) positioning is used to accurately locate a GPS receiver based upon the well-known position of a reference site. In utilizing this technique, several error sources contribute to position inaccuracy. This thesis investigates the error in DGPS operation and attempts to develop a statistical model for the behavior of this error. The model for DGPS error is developed using GPS data collected by Draper Laboratory. The Marquardt method for nonlinear curve-fitting is used to find the parameters of a first order Markov process that models the average errors from the collected data. The results show that a first order Markov process can be used to model the DGPS error as a function of baseline distance and time delay. The model's time correlation constant is 3847.1 seconds (1.07 hours) for the mean square error. The distance correlation constant is 122.8 kilometers. The total process variance for the DGPS model is 3.73 sq meters.

Blerman, Gregory S.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Coronal electron stream and Langmuir wave detection inside a propagation channel at 4.3 AU

Observations of an energetic interplanetary electron event associated with the production of Langmuir waves, both of which are identified at 4.3 AU by instruments on the Ulysses spacecraft, are presented in this paper. This electron event propagates inside a well-defined magnetic structure. The existence of this structure is firmly established by joint particle and plasma observations made by Ulysses instruments. Its local estimated radial width is of the order of 2.3 x 10(exp 7) km (0.15 AU). The electron beam is associated with a type III burst observed from Earth at high frequencies and at low frequencies from Ulysses in association with Langmuir waves detected inside the structure. The consistency of local (Ulysses) and remote (Earth) observations in terms of temporal and geometrical considerations establishes that the structure is anchored in the solar corona near the solar active region responisble for the observed type III emission and gives an accurate determination of the injection time for the observed electron beam. Propagation analysis of the electron event is presented. In order to quantify the magnetic field properties, a variance analysis has been performed and is presented in this paper. The analysis establishes that inside the structure the amount of magnetic energy involved in the fluctuations is less than 4% of the total magnetic energy; the minimal variance direction is well defined and in coincidence with the direction of the mean magnetic field. This configuration may produce conditions favorable for scatter free streaming of energetic electrons and/or Langmuir wave production. The results presented show that the magnetic field might play a role in stabilizing the coronal-origin plasma structures and then preserving them to large, approximately 4 AU, distances in the heliosphere.

Buttighoffer, A.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Planetary Boundary Layer Simulation Using TASS

Boundary conditions to an existing large-eddy simulation model have been changed in order to simulate turbulence in the atmospheric boundary layer. Several options are now available, including the use of a surface energy balance. In addition, we compare convective boundary layer simulations with the Wangara and Minnesota field experiments as well as with other model results. We find excellent agreement of modelled mean profiles of wind and temperature with observations and good agreement for velocity variances. Neutral boundary simulation results are compared with theory and with previously used models. Agreement with theory is reasonable, while agreement with previous models is excellent.

Schowalter, David G.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Baroreflex Sensitivity Decreases During 90-Day Bed Rest

Baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) decreases during spaceflight and simulated spaceflight (head down bed rest [BR]). However, previous studies have only examined BRS in response to a limited blood pressure (BP) range or to a single sudden change in BP. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to examine BRS during 90 days of 6deg head-down tilt BR over a broad range of BP perturbations. METHODS: Nineteen normal volunteers (12M, 7F) were tested one day before BR, and then near BR days 30, 60 and 90. BP was pharmacologically altered by continuous infusions of phenylephrine (PE) and sodium nitroprusside (SNP). Electrocardiogram and continuous BP were collected during 10 min of normal saline (NS), followed by increasing concentrations of PE (10 min each of 0.4, 0.8 and 1.6 micro-g/kg/min). After a 20 min break, NS was infused again for 10 min, followed by increasing concentrations of SNP (10 min each of 0.4, 0.8, 1.2 micro-g/kg/min). Baroreceptor sensitivity was measured as the slope of a sequence of 3 or more beats in which the systolic BP and following R-R interval (RR) both increased or decreased. Spectral heart rate variability (HRV) and mean RR were analyzed using data from only the NS infusions. Two-way repeated-measures analysis of variance was performed to examine the effects of BR and gender. RESULTS: RR decreased (p<0.001) from pre- BR across BR days. High frequency in normalized units, a measure of parasympathetic activity, decreased with BR (p=0.027) and was lower (p=0.046) in men (0.39+/-0.02, mean+/-SEM) than women (0.48+/-0.02). The spontaneous baroreflex slope, our measure of BRS, increased with PE and decreased with SNP across BR (p<0.001). The percentage decrease in BRS from pre- to post-BR appeared to be larger in women (43.6+/-7.0%) than in men (31.3+/-3.9%, p=0.06). CONCLUSION: Parasympathetic activity and baroreflex sensitivity decrease during 90 days of BR, and BRS tends to diminish more in women than in men.

Stenger, M. B.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Comparison of Turbulent Thermal Diffusivity and Scalar Variance Models

In this study, several variable turbulent Prandtl number formulations are examined for boundary layers, pipe flow, and axisymmetric jets. The model formulations include simple algebraic relations between the thermal diffusivity and turbulent viscosity as well as more complex models that solve transport equations for the thermal variance and its dissipation rate. Results are compared with available data for wall heat transfer and profile measurements of mean temperature, the root-mean-square (RMS) fluctuating temperature, turbulent heat flux and turbulent Prandtl number. For wall-bounded problems, the algebraic models are found to best predict the rise in turbulent Prandtl number near the wall as well as the log-layer temperature profile, while the thermal variance models provide a good representation of the RMS temperature fluctuations. In jet flows, the algebraic models provide no benefit over a constant turbulent Prandtl number approach. Application of the thermal variance models finds that some significantly overpredict the temperature variance in the plume and most underpredict the thermal growth rate of the jet. The models yield very similar fluctuating temperature intensities in jets from straight pipes and smooth contraction nozzles, in contrast to data that indicate the latter should have noticeably higher values. For the particular low subsonic heated jet cases examined, changes in the turbulent Prandtl number had no effect on the centerline velocity decay.

computational fluid dynamics↗
NASA NTRS1977

DSN system performance test Doppler noise models; noncoherent configuration

The newer model for variance, the Allan technique, now adopted for testing, is analyzed in the subject mode. A model is generated (including considerable contribution from the station secondary frequency standard), and rationalized with existing data. The variance model is definitely sound; the Allan technique mates theory and measure. The mean-frequency model is an estimate; this problem is yet to be rigorously resolved. The unaltered defining expressions are noncovergent, and the observed mean is quite erratic.

Bunce, R.↗