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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Otolith 87 Sr / 86 Sr identifies natal origin, movement and life history of Burbot Lota lota in the Kootenai River following 45 years of impoundment

Abstract Hydropower has long been an effective form of renewable energy, but the development of the resource has negatively impacted fishes throughout the world. Formulating recovery plans to mitigate these effects requires a firm understanding of species‐specific provenance, life history and life stage habitat requirements. However, the importance of this information is often only recognised after a substantial population decline, when obtaining it becomes demographically challenging. We provide a case study for this scenario and present a post hoc approach to gain insight into these critical data gaps for Burbot Lota lota in the upper Kootenai River in Montana and British Columbia. The population once supported a robust tribal and recreational harvest but declined following impoundment and these fisheries have remained closed or curtailed for nearly 20 years. The reasons for the decline are unknown and actions to assist recovery have been constrained by limited information regarding natal origin, life history and habitat use. We addressed this issue using strontium isotope ratios ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) in otoliths collected over four decades in Lake Koocanusa, the reservoir on the Kootenai River above Libby Dam. Due to the geologic heterogeneity of the basin and resulting variation in water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr, the assignment probability for Burbot to their region of natal origin approached unity. Otolith 87 Sr/ 86 Sr also indicated the population was comprised of mainstem‐ and tributary‐origin forms and their relative abundance changed over time. Mainstem Burbot was most abundant during the 1970s and 2000s, whereas tributary forms dominated between these periods. We suggest ecosystem changes following impoundment contributed to this shift in life history forms and the overall decline of the population. Our findings underscore the need for additional investigations of these impacts to guide restoration efforts.

Dunnigan, James L.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unified wavefront singularity characterization of three-dimensional elastodynamic time-domain half-space Green's function under impulsive boundary and internal loads

Founded on a novel analytical formulation that led to a rigorous yet compact path-integral representation of the time-domain elastodynamic half-space Green's function, a unified analysis of the possible occurrence of different singular wavefront behaviour in the response under arbitrary impulsive internal or surface point loads at arbitrary source-receiver locations is presented. With the decomposition of the general solution into distinct initiating and reflected wave group integrals that share a common factored format and simple contour definitions, the mathematical framework is shown to allow a straightforward identification of the specific conditions and the particular wave groups that are responsible for the singular wavefront phenomena without resorting to advanced analytic function theories or asymptotic methods. Analytic characterizations of the nature, strength and direction of all intrinsic singular wavefront behaviours of the three-dimensional Green's function in three canonical cases of source-receiver configurations are given in a dual integral-closed form format to facilitate their theoretical understanding as well as computational applications. Graphical illustrations of their variation with the source-receiver configuration and the medium's Poisson's ratio together with relevant comparison and clarifications of some classical treatments are included.

Green’s functions↗
DOE OSTI2022

Novel reusable animal model for comparative evaluation of in vivo growth and protein-expression of Escherichia coli O157 strains in the bovine rumen

Previously, we had demonstrated that Escherichia coli O157:H7 (O157) strain 86–24 expresses proteins involved in survival rather than virulence in vitro in rumen fluid from dairy cattle limit fed a maintenance diet. Here, we verified if this observation would be true for different O157 strains grown in vitro in rumen fluid from, and in vivo in the rumen of, animals on contrasting maintenance (high fiber) and lactation (high energy-protein) diets usually limit fed to dairy cattle. For the in vivo studies, an economical, novel, reusable and non-terminal rumen-fistulated animal model permitting simultaneous evaluation of multiple bacterial strains in the bovine rumen was developed. All experiments were conducted in duplicate using different animals to account for host-related variations. The O157 strains included, 86–24, EDL933 and the super shed SS-17. E. coli Nal R (#5735), derived from a bovine intestinal commensal E. coli, was included as a control. As expected, diet influenced ruminal pH and volatile fatty acid (VFA) composition. The pH ranged from 6.2–7.0 and total VFA concentrations from 109–141 μM/ml, in animals fed the maintenance diet. In comparison, animals fed the lactation diet had a ruminal pH ranging between 5.18–6.0, and total VFA of 125–219 μM/ml. Strain dependent differences in O157 recovery from the rumen fluid of cattle fed either diet was observed, both in vitro and in vivo, with O157 strains 86–24 and EDL933 demonstrating similar survival patterns. Analysis of the O157 proteomes expressed in the rumen fluid/rumen verified previous observations of adaptive responses. Any difference in the adaptive response was mainly influenced by the animal’s diet and growth conditions (in vitro and in vivo) and not the O157 strain. These new insights into the O157 responses could help formulate modalities to control O157 across strains in cattle at all stages of husbandry.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Variations in γ′ formers and refractory elements for enhanced creep resistance and phase stability of an advanced Ni-based superalloy

The strong demands on increasing fuel efficiency have continuously driven the optimization of superalloys for high-performance applications. In this study, modifications to the chemistry and heat treatment of HAYNES® 282® alloy (H282) were performed by varying γ′ formers and refractory elements. It was found that increasing Ti and substituting W for some of the Mo in the newly designed alloy (Q) resulted in a significant improvement of creep resistance, up to 130% increase in creep life, compared to standard H282. It was found that Orowan loops and dislocation climb were the dominant creep deformation mechanisms in alloy Q, while extensive dislocation tangling as an additional configuration was observed in the baseline alloy. Moreover, phase stability investigations for up to 5000 h at 800 °C and 900 °C revealed a reduced formation of detrimental σ and μ phases in alloy Q when compared to H282. Atom-probe tomography (APT) revealed that the formation and growth of those phases were responsible for a decrease in Mo content in the matrix, thereby leading to a decrease in solid-solution strengthening in H282 over time. Furthermore, the coarsening of γ′ precipitates was retarded by the substitution of W for Mo, particularly under creep stress. The theoretical and experimental understanding of precipitation strengthening unraveled that higher optimal strengthening occurs at larger particle size for alloy Q, compared to the commercial formulation, further explaining the origin of enhanced creep resistance in the modified alloy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Variational control forces for enhanced sampling of nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulations

We introduce a variational algorithm to estimate the likelihood of a rare event within a nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulation through the evaluation of an optimal control force. Optimization of a control force within a chosen basis is made possible by explicit forms for the gradients of a cost function in terms of the susceptibility of driven trajectories to changes in variational parameters. We consider probabilities of time-integrated dynamical observables as characterized by their large deviation functions and find that in many cases, the variational estimate is quantitatively accurate. Additionally, we provide expressions to exactly correct the variational estimate that can be evaluated directly. We benchmark this algorithm against the numerically exact solution of a model of a driven particle in a periodic potential, where the control force can be represented with a complete basis. Additionally, we then demonstrate the utility of the algorithm in a model of repulsive particles on a line, which undergo a dynamical phase transition, resulting in singular changes to the form of the optimal control force. In both systems, we find fast convergence and are able to evaluate large deviation functions with significant increases in statistical efficiency over alternative Monte Carlo approaches.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Design, Deployment, and Characterization of the World’s First Flexible Large Power Transformer

GE Research and its partner Prolec GE have designed, built and deployed in the field the world’s first flexible power transformer. The flexible power transformer is a transmission class 3-phase autotransformer configurable in impedance and in voltage which allows it to serve as a universal spare for multiple units in a given fleet. However, the key innovation in this new concept is the online adjustable leakage impedance which allows the transformer to change its impedance without interrupting the transmission line operation. The flexible power transformer can be designed with up to three low voltage transmission class ratings and up to 12 impedance values changeable both online and offline. This report provides an overview of the design, manufacturing, testing, and commissioning of the 165kV, 60MVA prototype built including the results of the field performance validation tests. The prototype was specified in collaboration with Cooperative Energy, the utility host. It was designed and tested in the factory according to IEEE standard C57.12.00 and followed all protocols for transportation, installation, and commissioning of a power transformer. In addition to the prototype, a flexible protection system capable of automatically adjusting its settings upon the transformer impedance was also developed and deployed in the for testing and validation. On September 3, 2021 the prototype was energized in Cooperative Energy’s substation in Columbia, Mississippi to become the world’s first flexible power transformer in operation. Its performances and impact on the grid operation were demonstrated through different field tests. Results obtained confirm that the impedance of the flexible transformer can be varied under load through its full range, from 4.3% to 9.3%, without adverse impacts on the line operation, the protection system, the transformer stability and health condition. Results also proved that the flexible transformer is very effective in controlling power transfer through the line or load sharing between units operating in parallel. Indeed, it was proven that higher impedances decrease the thruput power of the transformer while lower impedances increase it. Up to 26MW was controllable on a line loading of 45MVA. It was also possible to demonstrate that the variation of the transformer impedance has no effect on the circulating current between units in parallel, except a minor transient during the impedance change. It was also proven that the flexible protection relay can update its protection settings automatically when the impedance change was detected. The prototype has operated continuously for more than 12 months now with a peak load exceeding 50MVA corresponding to >80% of its ONAN power rating. No alarm, trip or sign of failure has been reported by the utility. In addition to the development and deployment of the flexible transformer prototype, investigations were carried out on new nanodielectric fluids to replace the mineral oil used in power transformers with the goal of reducing their footprint and weight. The key parameters that were targeted for improvement included the breakdown voltage to reduce clearances between windings and tank hence the footprint; viscosity and thermal conductivity to increase the cooling efficiency and therefore to reduce the winding material. Several nanodielectric mixtures with mineral oil including with alumina (Al2O3), titania (TiO2) and Borum Nitrate (BN) with different surfactants have been analyzed and tested. Unfortunately, despite encouraging results no nanofluid candidate has been found viable to replace mineral oil. With the formulations tested, breakdown voltages are generally similar to mineral oil at lower particle contents and worse at higher particle contents. Viscosity appreciably increased at particles concertation over 2 wt% and thermal conductivity increased slightly at 5wt% and appears to be 10-15% higher at 10 wt% particle content. It is recommended to continue investigations to find solutions that can help increase the power density of future flexible power transformers. Flexible power transformers can significantly help the future power grid by providing more flexibility and resiliency. Indeed, by providing voltage and impedance flexibility, flexible power transformers reduce the need for multiple spares, hence inventory costs for utilities. With their online controllable impedance, they can provide support to the grid and help manage short-circuit currents, power flow, line congestion, and grid stability which will become more important with higher penetrations of intermittent renewable resources. During the field validation tests, it was demonstrated that up to 26MW was controllable on a line loading of 45MVA when the transformer impedance was varied from its minimum to its maximum range. Also, with the impedance range, the short-circuit currents could be reduced by up to 38% at the load side of the transformer. With its controllable impedance, flexible transformers can be used in future strategies of grid resilience to help better prepare the grid to face forecasted severe events including storms, heat waves and contingencies. The flexible power transformers can also find role in other applications including high voltage transmission cables such as offshore wind farms where solutions for energizing the cables and managing the reactive power are of critical importance. The designed flexible power transformer is now fully validated and ready for commercialization. Further analysis on the benefits of flexible power transformers for grid stability and short-circuit management including current limiting capability, reclosure and line restoration, control of inrush current, sizing of flexible AC components (FACTS) would help its rapid adoption by the industry.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of Partially Observed Epidemics - Application to COVID-19

This report documents a statistical method for the "real-time" characterization of partially observed epidemics. Observations consist of daily counts of symptomatic patients, diagnosed with the disease. Characterization, in this context, refers to estimation of epidemiological parameters that can be used to provide short-term forecasts of the ongoing epidemic, as well as to provide gross information for the time-dependent infection rate. The characterization problem is formulated as a Bayesian inverse problem, and is predicated on a model for the distribution of the incubation period. The model parameters are estimated as distributions using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, thus quantifying the uncertainty in the estimates. The method is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, using data at the country, provincial (e.g., states) and regional (e.g. county) levels. The epidemiological model includes a stochastic component due to uncertainties in the incubation period. This model-form uncertainty is accommodated by a pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings MCMC sampler, which produces posterior distributions that reflect this uncertainty. We approximate the discrepancy between the data and the epidemiological model using Gaussian and negative binomial error models; the latter was motivated by the over-dispersed count data. For small daily counts we find the performance of the calibrated models to be similar for the two error models. For large daily counts the negative-binomial approximation is numerically unstable unlike the Gaussian error model. Application of the model at the country level (for the United States, Germany, Italy, etc.) generally provided accurate forecasts, as the data consisted of large counts which suppressed the day-to-day variations in the observations. Further, the bulk of the data is sourced over the duration before the relaxation of the curbs on population mixing, and is not confounded by any discernible country-wide second wave of infections. At the state-level, where reporting was poor or which evinced few infections (e.g., New Mexico), the variance in the data posed some, though not insurmountable, difficulties, and forecasts were able to capture the data with large uncertainty bounds. The method was found to be sufficiently sensitive to discern the flattening of the infection and epidemic curve due to shelter-in-place orders after around 90% quantile for the incubation distribution (about 10 days for COVID-19). The proposed model was also used at a regional level to compare the forecasts for the central and north-west regions of New Mexico. Modeling the data for these regions illustrated different disease spread dynamics captured by the model. While in the central region the daily counts peaked in the late April, in the north-west region the ramp-up continued for approximately three more weeks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

(Doublon) Benchmarking of Different Inverse Point Kinetics Implementations for an Autocorrected Reactimeter Algorithm

In November 2017, the Transient Reactor Test Facility returned to operation. Since that time, many transient test series have been completed, such as the Transient Heatsink Overpower Response capsule (THOR), the Transient Water Irradiation System for TREAT (TWIST), and Sirius. Each has provided valuable data for materials performance and reactor safety that can be applied in future designs. During each experimental series, detector count rates provided important information on the core behavior during transients. However, a limitation of these data is that variations in the neutron distribution during experiments can cause errors when attempting to infer reactivity evolution from detector signals. Neutron physics codes can be used to compute the flux shape variations. However, this is a poor solution when the experimental data is used for code verification, validation and uncertainty quantification. Indeed, if the output of the code is used both as a reference and to correct what the reference is compared to, the circular dependency limits the quality of the verification, validation and uncertainty quantification approach. To overcome this problem, the autocorrected reactimeter algorithm (ACRA) has been developed. This approach infers a time-dependent reactivity evolution by testing different spatial corrections and selecting the one that minimizes reactivity variations when the core is in a frozen configuration (i.e., when there is no variation in parameters affecting reactivity). However, the scope of this method was limited to transients where there were negligible thermal feedback. Indeed, the core is never in a frozen configuration when the fuel temperature varies during the whole transient. This is our motivation for developing an improved version of the ACRA that does not require frozen configurations. To develop this new algorithm, we need a precise and unbiased implementation of the inverse point kinetic equations (IPKEs) as any error in the reactivity evaluation will be propagated into the choice of the optimal spatial correction. Indeed, the previous reactimeter algorithm would use approximations, such as a negligible flux amplitude derivative, to focus on rapidity. For the numerical validation of ACRA, we aim at absolute error under for reactivity derived from signals similar to the one of this study. In this summary, we test eight different IPKE implementations. Each will process a mockup signal built for this study, similar to those that the future ACRA will process. Each reactivity output will be compared to the reference reactivity that has been used to generate the mockup signal. The implementation minimizing the difference with the reference reactivity will be used in the development of a new ACRA formulation.

73 - NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Effect of Normal Stress Oscillations on Fault Slip Behavior Near the Stability Transition From Stable to Unstable Motion

Tectonic fault zones are subject to normal stress variations with a wide range of spatio-temporal scales. Stress perturbations cover a wide range of frequencies and amplitudes from high frequency seismic waves generated by earthquakes to low frequency transients associated with solid Earth tides. These perturbations can reactivate critically stressed faults and trigger earthquakes. Here, we describe lab experiments to illuminate the physics of such changes in friction and the mechanics of earthquake triggering and fault reactivation. Friction tests were done in a double direct shear configuration for conditions near the stability transition from stable to unstable motion. We studied simulated fault gouge composed of quartz powder and conducted experiments at reference normal stress from 10 to 13.5 MPa. After shearing to steady state sliding, we applied sinusoidal normal stress oscillations of amplitude 0.5–2 MPa, and period of 0.5–50 s. We performed numerical simulations using measured values of rate and state friction (RSF) parameters to assess our data. Our results show that low frequency stress oscillations cause a Coulomb-like response of shear strength that transitions from stable slip to slow lab earthquakes as frequency increases. At the critical frequency predicted by RSF we observe periodic stick-slip behavior. Perturbations of high amplitude and short period weaken the fault, while lower amplitudes strengthen the fault. We find that a modified RSF formulation is able to accurately match our laboratory data. Our findings highlight the complex effects of stress perturbations on fault strength and the mode of fault slip.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of a nonlinear variational multiscale method for fluid transport problems

Diverse transport problems, especially those based on fluid flow models, are intrinsically multiscale and nonlinear, characteristics that often lead to intricate dynamics such as the development of instabilities and turbulence. Computational simulations that resolve all scales in these problems are often unfeasible, prompting to coarse-grained simulation strategies in which small-scale features are modeled instead of resolved. Variational Multiscale (VMS) methods, and particularly residual-based Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) approaches, have proven effective and robust for the coarse-grained simulation of complex transport problems. VMS methods avoid the assumption of separable nonlinearity and the reliance on empirical small-scale models by using a variational decomposition of scales together with a residual-based approximation of the small-scales. Evaluation of a nonlinear VMS approach, denoted as VMS n , is presented for the coarse-grained simulation of transient-advective-diffusive-reactive (TADR) transport problems arising from fluid flow models. In contrast to classical VMS approaches that neglect the effect of the small scales on the transport operator, VMS n treats the inter-dependence between large- and small-scales upfront. The treatment of inter-scale coupling involves the solution of a local algebraic nonlinear system describing the evolution of the small-scales. The VMS n approach is complemented with two algebraic approximations of the small-scales: one based on the main diagonal of the transport matrices and another that preserves transport fluxes and is suitable for generic TADR systems. The suitability of the VMS n approach for handling general TADR problems and regimes is evaluated with benchmark incompressible, compressible, and magnetohydrodynamic laminar flow problems, the incompressible Taylor-Green vortex flow, the turbulent free jet, and the two-temperature arc in crossflow. Furthermore, simulation results show that VMS n leads to minor improvements in accuracy with respect to the classical VMS for the laminar flow problems, but to significantly greater accuracy for the turbulent flows and the unsteady plasma flow problems, while using the same cohesive numerical formulation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using neural network ensembles to separate ocean biogeochemical and physical drivers of phytoplankton biogeography in Earth system models

Abstract. Earth system models (ESMs) are useful tools for predicting and understanding past and future aspects of the climate system. However, the biological and physical parameters used in ESMs can have wide variations in their estimates. Even small changes in these parameters can yield unexpected results without a clear explanation of how a particular outcome was reached. The standard method for estimating ESM sensitivity is to compare spatiotemporal distributions of variables from different runs of a single ESM. However, a potential pitfall of this method is that ESM output could match observational patterns because of compensating errors. For example, if a model predicts overly weak upwelling and low nutrient concentrations, it might compensate for this by allowing phytoplankton to have a high sensitivity to nutrients. Recently, we demonstrated that neural network ensembles (NNEs) are capable of extracting relationships between predictor and target variables within ocean biogeochemical models. Being able to view the relationships between variables, along with spatiotemporal distributions, allows for a more mechanistically based examination of ESM outputs. Here, we investigated whether we could apply NNEs to help us determine why different ESMs produce different spatiotemporal distributions of phytoplankton biomass. We tested this using three cases. The first and second case used different runs of the same ESM, except that the physical circulations differed between them in the first case, while the biological equations differed between them in the second. Our results indicated that the NNEs were capable of extracting the relationships between variables for different runs of a single ESM, allowing us to distinguish between differences due to changes in circulation (which do not change relationships) from changes in biogeochemical formulation (which do change relationships). In the third case, we applied NNEs to two different ESMs. The results of the third case highlighted the capability of NNEs to contrast the apparent relationships of different ESMs and some of the challenges it presents. Although applied specifically to the ocean components of an ESM, our study demonstrates that Earth system modelers can use NNEs to separate the contributions of different components of ESMs. Specifically, this allows modelers to compare the apparent relationships across different ESMs and observational datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cosmic quenching and scaling laws for the evolution of supermassive black holes and host galaxies

ABSTRACT Observations suggest a co-evolution of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) and host galaxies. In this paper, we consider the mass and energy flow in a near-equilibrium bulge suffused by gases of varying temperatures. By assuming the rate of energy flow independent of the distance r from the bulge center and the local virial equilibrium for permeated gases on scale r, a key parameter $\varepsilon _b$ was identified that quantifies the mass and energy flow in gases and the efficiency of gas cooling (or the "specific" cooling rate per unit mass), and thus regulates the co-evolution of both SMBHs and hosts. With the help of Illustris simulations and observations, we determined the redshift variation $\varepsilon _b\propto (1+z)^{5/2}$. A higher $\varepsilon _b$ in the early Universe means a higher specific cooling rate that allows rapid evolution of SMBHs and hosts. This simple theory, characterized by a single parameter $\varepsilon _b$, provides the dominant mean cosmic evolution of SMBHs and hosts. All other transient phenomena may only contribute to the dispersion around this mean evolution. Based on this theory and relevant assumptions, scaling laws involving $\varepsilon _b$ were identified for the evolution of SMBHs and hosts. For host galaxies, the mass–size relation $M_b\propto \varepsilon _b^{2/3}r_b^{5/3}G^{-1}$, the dispersion–size relation $\sigma _b^2\propto (\varepsilon _b r_b)^{2/3}\propto (1+z)$, or the mass–dispersion relation $M_b\propto \varepsilon _b^{-1}G^{-1}\sigma _b^5$ were identified, where $r_b\propto (1+z)^{-1}$ is the bulge size. For SMBHs, three evolution phases were found involving an initial rapid growth stage with a rising luminosity $L_B\propto (\varepsilon _b M_{\rm BH})^{4/5}$, a transition stage with a declining $L_B\propto \varepsilon _b^2 M_{\rm BH} \propto (1+z)^5$, and a dormant stage with $L_B\propto (\varepsilon _b M_{\rm BH})^{4/3}$. Our results suggest a rapid initial super-Eddington growth in a short period with a new redshift-dependent luminosity limit $L_X\propto\varepsilon _b^{4/5}M_{\rm BH}^{4/5}G^{-1/5}c$, in contrast to the Eddington limit. Analytical solutions were formulated for the BH mass function $\Phi _{\rm BH}$, active galactic nucleus (AGN) mass function $\Phi _{\rm AGN}$, and duty cycle U that predict $\Phi _L\propto L^{-1/5}$ for the faint-end luminosity function, $\Phi _{\rm AGN}\propto M^{-1/5}$ for small-mass-end AGN mass function $\Phi _L$, and $U\propto M^{-1/5}$ at high redshift.

(galaxies:) quasars: supermassive black holes↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving Seasonal Forecast Using Probabilistic Deep Learning

The path toward realizing the potential of seasonal forecasting and its socioeconomic benefits relies on improving general circulation model (GCM) based dynamical forecast systems. To improve dynamical seasonal forecasts, it is crucial to set up forecast benchmarks, and clarify forecast limitations posed by model initialization errors, formulation deficiencies, and internal climate variability. With huge costs in generating large forecast ensembles, and limited observations for forecast verification, the seasonal forecast benchmarking and diagnosing task proves challenging. Here, we develop a probabilistic deep learning-based statistical forecast methodology, drawing on a wealth of climate simulations to enhance seasonal forecast capability and forecast diagnosis. By explicitly modeling the internal climate variability and GCM formulation differences, the proposed Conditional Generative Forecasting (CGF) methodology enables bypassing crucial barriers in dynamical forecast, and offers a top-down viewpoint to examine how complicated GCMs encode the seasonal predictability information. We apply the CGF methodology for global seasonal forecast of precipitation and 2 m air temperature, based on a unique data set consisting 52,201 years of climate simulation. Results show that the CGF methodology can faithfully represent the seasonal predictability information encoded in GCMs. We successfully apply this learned relationship in real-world seasonal forecast, achieving competitive performance compared to dynamical forecasts. Using this CGF as benchmark, we reveal the impact of insufficient forecast spread sampling that limits the skill of the considered dynamical forecast system. Finally, we introduce different strategies for composing ensembles using the CGF methodology, highlighting the potential for leveraging the strengths of multiple GCMs to achieve advantgeous seasonal forecast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Review of Quantum Computing Technologies in Power System Optimization

As modern power grids increasingly integrate variable renewable generation, distributed energy resources, and energy storage systems, classical optimization techniques are facing unprecedented challenges. This review examines the emerging application of quantum computing to overcome these challenges in power system optimization, including optimal power flow (OPF), unit commitment (UC), economic dispatch (ED), and intelligent switching and topology optimization (IS-TO). Recent research has introduced various quantum methodologies—such as gate-based, annealing-based, variational algorithms, and quantum-inspired algorithms—to address the combinatorial complexity inherent in grid reconfiguration and energy management. The review summaries the quantum algorithms, quantum devices and the power system test cases, highlighting hybrid quantum–classical strategies that leverage the complementary strengths of both paradigms. Some quantum advantages have been observed, including theoretical speedup, accurate simulation results, scalable qubit usage, efficient QUBO mapping. In particular, the review emphasizes the importance of integrating quantum optimization techniques with classical control frameworks, these hybrid approaches demonstrate the potential to improve real-time grid management and operational reliability. A significant portion of the analysis is devoted to the practical limitations of current quantum devices. Present-day quantum hardware, operating in the noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) era, remains highly sensitive to noise and limited in qubit connectivity, which constrains the scale and accuracy of implemented algorithms. The review delves into specific challenges such as the need for qubit-efficient encoding techniques and error mitigation strategies that are critical for handling real-world grid optimization problems. In addition, the work draws attention to the performance discrepancies between theoretical quantum speedups and experimental validations, underscoring the importance of rigorous benchmark studies using representative power grid test cases. In summary, this review highlights both the promise and limitations of quantum computing for power system optimization. It provides a comprehensive overview of the state-of-the-art technologies, categorizes recent advancements in algorithm design, and discusses practical considerations for implementation, and serves as an informative resource on current research. Future research directions include developing robust hybrid frameworks, advancing qubit-efficient formulations, and scaling up experimental demonstrations to confirm the theoretical advantages of quantum methods in large-scale power system operations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

A mixed-integer PDE-constrained optimization formulation for constructing electromagnetic cloaks with multiple materials

We study the design of an electromagnetic cloak from multiple materials with an additional constraint on the mass of the cloak. Our problem is an example of a topology optimization problem, and we formulate this problem as a mixed-integer partial-differential equation constrained optimization (MIPDECO) problem, where Maxwell’s equation models the propagation of the wave through the cloak and surrounding medium. We use binary variables to model the assignment of the different materials, and their relevant properties (permittivity and density). The mass constraint adds a nontrivial constraint to this problem. We propose a two-phase strategy to solve this problem. In the first phase, we solve a continuous relaxation, and then propose a new variant of the feasibility pump that exploits the structure of the PDE to obtain an initial integral solution candidate. In the second phase, we use a trust-region approach to improve this incumbent. We also consider a continuation or mesh-sequencing approach to find better solutions faster on consecutively finer meshes. We present detailed numerical results to illustrate the effectiveness of our approaches for constructing multi-material cloaks with a mass constraint.

Calculus of Variations and Optimization↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integration of Omics into a New Comprehensive Rate Law for Competitive Terminal Electron-Accepting Processes in Reactive Transport Models: Application to N, Fe, S, and Contaminant Transformations in Stream and Wetland Sediments

Surface waters represent important sources of alternate energy and drinking water in the United States, and characterizing the biogeochemical processes that affect surface water quality is relevant to the DOE-BER mission. Sediment biogeochemical processes regulate the release of carbon (C), nutrients, and contaminants to surface waters and thus influence water quality. Sediment biogeochemical processes are dynamic and affected by the deposition and remobilization of solid material and changes in environmental conditions driven by water discharge variations. Wetlands are important natural filters of surface waters which may either trap, metabolize, or mobilize nutrients and contaminants. Despite their importance, biogeochemical processes regulating nutrient and contaminant release and C transformation in stream and wetland sediments cannot be predicted accurately by current mathematical models. These reactive transport models largely rely on detectable changes in geochemical conditions to activate metabolic processes, do not accurately account for the competition between microbial processes, and poorly constrain effects of hydrological perturbations on biogeochemical processes. In this BER-SBR exploratory project, metagenomic and geochemical signatures were combined to identify microbially-mediated redox processes in anaerobic stream and wetland sediments from the Savannah River Site (SRS, ANL SFA) and East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC, ORNL SFA) that play important roles in C, uranium (U), and mercury (Hg) transformations. In addition, sediment incubations were conducted to examine the competition between anaerobic respiration processes Finally, new rate laws were developed for reactive transport models that rely on complementary metagenomic and geochemical signatures to identify the underlying anaerobic microbial processes in stream and wetland sediments, describe the competition between the dominant metabolic processes involved in nutrient release and U and Hg mobilization, and more accurately quantify carbon transformation and the response of microbial processes to changes in redox conditions associated with hydrological forcing. These rate laws were optimized in batch reactors with SRS wetland sediments, where iron and sulfate reduction dominate. Anaerobic carbon remineralization processes followed the expected thermodynamic sequence of microbial respiration with depth in both sediments, except that geochemical signals indicated that sulfate reduction was inactive in EFPC sediments and moderate in SRS wetland sediments. Estimates indicated that microbial iron reduction contributed to at least half of the production of reduced iron in these sediments. Incubations demonstrated that nitrate reduction, denitrification, and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium were active in the natural EFPC sediment and activated upon nitrate amendment in these nitrate-rich sediments. In turn, these processes were outcompeted by the addition of either iron oxides or sulfate as alternative terminal electron acceptors. Although geochemical products of sulfate reduction were not detected in the incubations, the abundance of sulfate reduction genes increased with depth in the sediment and was equally more pronounced in treatments amended with either iron oxides or sulfate. Simultaneously, anaerobic sulfide oxidizing bacteria coupling sulfide oxidation to DNRA (and not conventional denitrification) were apparently enriched over time, regardless of the treatments. These findings indicate that sulfate reduction is important in freshwater stream sediments and probably catalyzed by a cryptic sulfur cycle involving nitrogen species, in which the sulfur products from sulfate reduction are immediately removed by side reactions and not detectable by geochemical measurements alone. Similar experiments in SRS sediments, however, demonstrated little interaction between nitrogen and sulfur cycling microorganisms. Sulfate reduction was impacted by the addition of more thermodynamically favorable electron acceptors, suggesting either that iron-reducing microorganisms outcompeted sulfate-reducing microorganisms for organic substrate, depleting the stock of electron donor available for sulfate reduction, or that the cryptic sulfur cycle was shunted by the precipitation of FeS generated as a result of the abiotic reduction of iron oxides by dissolved sulfide. A diagnostic modeling exercise was conducted to further investigate the competition between terminal electron accepting processes. As conventional kinetic models typically do not account for cryptic cycles and used inaccurate formulations to describe competition between microbial communities, new metabolic rate laws were developed that explicitly express the electron acceptor-specific enzyme of each energetically favorable metabolic process based on gene abundance detected in the incubations. The model was tested with the sediment slurry incubation data to determine whether substrate competition could explain the decrease in sulfate reduction observed in the presence of iron oxide competitor. The model was able to reproduce geochemical concentrations really well in each treatment once the model was calibrated with the unamended control, suggesting that microbial competition was indeed driven by thermodynamic considerations. Overall, carbon remineralization processes and rates will be reproduced much more realistically with the new metabolic rate laws.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗