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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Reported Energy and Cost Savings from the DOE ESPC IDIQ Program: FY 2024

Energy Savings Performance Contracts (ESPCs)are a contractual mechanism that allow a federal agency to procure energy savings and facility improvements without upfront capital costs to reduce costs and resiliency. ESPCs are covered under FAR Part 23.2, and 42 USC § 8287. Section 8287(a)(2)(A) of Title 42 of the U.S. Code requires that each energy savings performance contract (ESPC) undergo an annual energy audit, resulting in a separate audit report for every project. The objective of the present report is to compile and analyze all annual ESPC audit reports issued between October 1, 2023, and September 30, 2024, for projects awarded under Generations 1, 2, and 3 of DOE’s ESPC IDIQ contracts. During this period, 205 measurement and verification (M&V) reports were produced for 200 projects; the total number of reports exceeds the number of projects because some projects generated more than one report(for example, a few projects measure savings twice per year and produce two audit reports annually, each covering a different six-month period). By aggregating the results from these individual audits, the report determines the portfolio-wide realization rate of energy and cost savings for all active ESPC projects awarded under DOE’s IDIQ program. For all 205audit reports, sufficient information was available to compare project-level estimated, reported, and guaranteed cost savings. Reported cost savings accounted for ESCO verified savings per each project’s M&V plan. The total reported cost savings for the period addressed were $\$$647.8million,compared with the total guaranteed cost savings of $\$$601.6million. On average across the reported projects: •ESPC contractors guaranteed 92.8% of the estimated cost savings• projects reported achieving 100.0% of the estimated cost savings• projects reported achieving 107.7% of the guaranteed cost savings. The M&V performed for the period indicated adjustments for government operations and maintenance impacts to savings amount to$\$$43.9millionandcould be restored with the original operational parameters for impacted projects. Accounting for this potential cost savings impact, these projects still realized 100.4% of the guaranteed cost savings. The information on estimated and reported energy savings was collected and compared for all 205of the reports examined. Based on site energy, estimated savings totaled 14.88million MMBtu, and reported savings were 15.33million MMBtu; 3.1% greater than the estimated energy savings. All of the reports examined contained sufficient information to calculate source energy savings. Based on site-adjusted source energy, total estimated energy savings were 20.90 million MMBtu, and reported savings were 21.22million MMBtu, 101.5% of the estimated energy savings. For water savings, the estimated savings were 11,539,055 kGal and the reported savings were 13,315,930 kGal. This means 1,776,875 kGal more water was saved than estimated, which is about 15% higher than the estimate. These results indicate that, overall, the reported energy savings slightly exceeded the estimated values, while estimated water savings significantly exceeded estimated values, suggesting that the projects achieved greater cost savings than originally projected. The total annual expense for the ESCOs to perform annual M&V audits and reporting was $\$$10.02million. Through this effort, $\$$647.8 million in annual cost savings was verified. The M&V results indicated that $\$$43.9 million of these verified savings reflected adjustments due to government operations A-6and maintenance impacts, which could be restored under the original operational parameters for the affected projects. These findings show the value of M&V that only costs 1.7%of the guaranteed cost savings to ensure guarantees are met.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the limitations of commercial sensors and models for supporting marine carbon dioxide removal monitoring: a case study

Several unknowns remain surrounding marine Carbon Dioxide Removal (mCDR) monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) practices and capabilities. Current in-situ sensor technology is limited (primarily pH and pCO 2 ), requiring calculations and assumptions to estimate changes in carbonate chemistry parameters, including total alkalinity (TA). Considering that cost, energy consumption, and accuracy of commercial sensors can vary by orders of magnitude, understanding how well existing sensors perform in an mCDR context is important for this emerging community. Likewise, documenting sensor limitations and how relatively simple models can optimize sensor deployments will improve MRV efforts and support protocol development. Here we (1) compare performance a variety of commercially available sensors in a blind mesocosm experiment simulating ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE), and how sensor performance impacted carbonate chemistry estimates; (2) evaluate if sensors can distinguish the OAE signal from natural variability during a small scale OAE field test in Sequim Bay, WA, USA, and (3) use an idealized ocean biogeochemistry model to explore optimal sensor network design based on (1) and (2). Our mesocosm results indicate that correctly constraining pH uncertainty will be critical for accurate TA estimates with current sensor technology compared to the less impactful variation caused by uncertainty in pCO 2 (pH data that are presented throughout are reported on the total scale (pH T ) unless otherwise noted). Our pilot field test demonstrated that sensors were capable of distinguishing mCDR signatures from natural variability under optimal real-world conditions. Idealized modeling simulations of the field test showed that a range of sparse and dense (3 to 100) sensors sampling areas of detectable increases will underestimate the net change in surface pH by at least 35–55%, at both realistic and highly elevated alkalinity input levels. We also highlight the limitations of current sensing technology for MRV, and the importance of ocean biogeochemistry models as critical tools for predicting when and where mCDR signals will be detectable using available sensors. Overall, our findings suggest that commercially available pCO 2 sensors and some pH sensors will form an important backbone for mCDR MRV tasks, though complete MRV characterization will require these data to be used in combination with other tools.

OAE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards verifiable cancer digital twins: tissue level modeling protocol for precision medicine

Cancer exhibits substantial heterogeneity, manifesting as distinct morphological and molecular variations across tumors, which frequently undermines the efficacy of conventional oncological treatments. Developments in multiomics and sequencing technologies have paved the way for unraveling this heterogeneity. Nevertheless, the complexity of the data gathered from these methods cannot be fully interpreted through multimodal data analysis alone. Mathematical modeling plays a crucial role in delineating the underlying mechanisms to explain sources of heterogeneity using patient-specific data. Intra-tumoral diversity necessitates the development of precision oncology therapies utilizing multiphysics, multiscale mathematical models for cancer. This review discusses recent advancements in computational methodologies for precision oncology, highlighting the potential of cancer digital twins to enhance patient-specific decision-making in clinical settings. We review computational efforts in building patient-informed cellular and tissue-level models for cancer and propose a computational framework that utilizes agent-based modeling as an effective conduit to integrate cancer systems models that encode signaling at the cellular scale with digital twin models that predict tissue-level response in a tumor microenvironment customized to patient information. Furthermore, we discuss machine learning approaches to building surrogates for these complex mathematical models. These surrogates can potentially be used to conduct sensitivity analysis, verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification, which is especially important for tumor studies due to their dynamic nature.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Causal Approach to Model Validation and Calibration

This poster presents a novel method for validation and verification that focuses on identifying causal relationships between data elements, moving beyond traditional statistical and machine learning approaches. These methods employ causal discovery techniques to reveal the underlying mechanisms of data generation. The research utilizes structural causal models and directed acyclic graphs to depict causal relationships. This approach assists in achieving alignment between simulation models and reality.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computer Vision Pipeline for Image Analysis for Freeze‐Fracture Electron Microscopy: Rosette Cellulose Synthase Complexes Case

In materials science, plant biology, agriculture, and environmental research, the automated analysis of high-magnification, complex microscopy images, such as those generated by freeze-fracture electron microscopy (FF-TEM), remains a critical challenge that limits the scalability of data interpretation. We present a deep learning computer vision pipeline for high-throughput detection and morphological characterization analysis of cellulose synthase complexes (CSCs, or rosettes) in FF-TEM images. The pipeline integrates preprocessing, detection, human-in-the-loop verification, and semantic segmentation to quantify features such as rosette diameter and inter-lobe spacing. The approach was trained and tested on a curated dataset of high-resolution FF-TEM micrographs of Physcomitrium patens, expanded via strategic tiling and augmentation to over 650 images. We compare YOLOv8 and YOLOv9 architectures and demonstrate that YOLOv9 achieves superior performance in both localization accuracy (mAP50-95 = 0.854) and inference speed. The resulting distributions revealed biological variability consistent with prior manual studies, validating the approach for high-throughput applications. Our results show that the pipeline achieves human-expert level accuracy while dramatically reducing analysis time, enabling scalable, reproducible structural characterization of intramembrane protein complexes. The pipeline is broadly applicable to other domains requiring precise interpretation of complex microscopy data and establishes a foundation for future artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted workflows in biological imaging.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A layered solid finite element formulation with interlaminar enhanced displacements for the modeling of laminated composite structures

Accurate modeling of layered composite structures often requires the use of detailed finite element models which can sufficiently resolve the kinematics and material behavior within each layer of the composite. However, individually discretizing each material layer into finite elements presents a prohibitive computational expensive given the large number of thin layers comprising some laminated composites. To address these challenges, an 8-node layered solid hexahedral finite element is formulated with the aim of striking an appropriate balance between efficiency and fidelity. The element is discretized into an arbitrary number of distinct material layers, and employs reduced in-plane integration within each layer. The chosen reduced integration scheme is supplemented by a novel physical stabilization approach which includes layerwise enhancements to mitigate various forms of locking phenomena. The proposed framework additionally supports the inclusion of interlaminar enhanced displacements to better represent the kinematics of general layered composite materials. Finally, the described element formulation has been implemented in the ParaDyn finite element code, and its efficacy for modeling laminated composite structures is demonstrated on a variety of verification problems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling, Validation, and Control of the IEA‐15 MW Reference Wind Turbine and VolturnUS‐S Platform

This paper presents the acausal modeling, validation, and control of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs). The model simulates the IEA‐15 MW reference turbine and the semi‐submersible VolturnUS‐S platform utilizing a Control‐oriented, Reconfigurable, and Acausal Floating Turbine Simulator (CRAFTS), which integrates the key coupled aero‐hydro‐elasto‐servo dynamics and is being developed by authors at the University of Central Florida. Verification and validation are conducted using numerical data from the industry‐standard simulation platform OpenFAST and experimental data from the Floating Offshore‐wind and Controls Advanced Laboratory (FOCAL) project, in which the authors were involved. Numerical results demonstrate the model's ability to qualitatively capture loads and responses across various load cases, highlighting the impact of the control system under different wind and wave conditions and opening new opportunities for optimizing FOWT designs. This paper provides wind turbine researchers with valuable insights into system characteristics, system frequencies, damping effects, and internal reaction forces, serving as a reference for future studies in FOWT modeling and control.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

ChatPORT: Fine-Tuned LLM for Easy Code {PORT}ing

Fine-tuning existing LLMs for specialized tasks has become a very attractive alternative due to its low cost and quick development cycle. With many pre-trained LLMs available, it is an increasingly complex task to choose the correct model as the starting point or base model. In this work we discuss ChatPORT - a specialized fine-tuned LLM geared towards providing correctly translated codes from one programming model to another. We evaluate a number of base models and compare and contrast their features and characteristics that make them a viable starting point. In this paper, we focus on the OpenMP offload porting capabilities of ChatPORT. We build our training data using kernels from the Heterogeneous Computing Benchmarks (HeCBench) [12] and the OpenMP Validation and Verification suite [5] to fine-tune the base models. We then test the model using unseen kernels extracted from the HeCBench benchmark suite. Our results show that: (1) not all open LLMs geared towards HPC are aware of programming models like OpenMP, (2) although all base models benefit from fine-tuning they learn differently and produce different correctness rates, (3) depending on the memory size and compute resource available, different base models can be used for fine-tuning without significantly affecting the quality of transpiled code they generate, (4) fine-tuning improved the correctness rate of the LLM by an average of 43.2%, and (5) feedback-based training data further increased the correctness rate by an average of 6% over the LLMs tested.

Pophale, Swaroop [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000185446367)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Computationally inexpensive part-scale thermal history of additive friction-stir deposition

This study presents an analytical model for steady-state power generation and tool heat loss in additive friction-stir deposition (AFSD), developed to enable part-scale thermal simulation while remaining computationally inexpensive. The model predicts total generated power, yielding 3.7–4.7 kW across deposition temperature setpoints of 400–460 °C for the deposition of AA6061 with a Be-Cu tool. This corresponds to 90–95% of the reported spindle power. Tool heat loss is experimentally determined by calibrating a steady-state energy balance between the generated power, the substrate-deposition thermal gradient, and a temperature dependent tool heat loss term: q tool (T) = a + b (T - 400°C) with a = 2.7 x 10 6 Wm -2 and b = 9.5 x 10 3 Wm -2 K -1 . The calibration indicates that about 69% of the generated heat is conducted into the tool for this configuration, which is much higher than previously reported. The calibrated heat-source is implemented in finite element software (Adamantine) to simulate the transient thermal history of a 100 cm 3 representative build in 8 min on a standard desktop (at 0.635 mm build-height resolution). For the first three layers, the substrate temperatures between simulation and experiment are within 10% mean absolute percentage error. Sensitivity analysis indicates that uncertainties in average deposition temperature and deformation localization (stir-zone geometry, depth, and spatial dependance of strain-rate and flow stress) dominate model variance, motivating additional experimental verification.

Additive Friction-Stir Deposition↗
DOE OSTI2024

Image-based modeling of coupled electro-chemo-mechanical behavior of Li-ion battery cathode using an interface-modified reproducing kernel particle method

Abstract An interface-modified reproducing kernel particle method (IM-RKPM) is introduced in this work to allow for a direct model construction from image pixels of heterogeneous polycrystalline Li-ion battery microstructures. The interface-modified reproducing kernel (IM-RK) approximation is constructed through scaling of a kernel function by a regularized distance function in conjunction with strategic placement of interface node locations. This leads to RK shape functions with either weak or strong discontinuities across material interfaces, suitable for modeling various interface mechanics. With the placement of a triple junction node and distance-based scaling of kernel functions, the resulting IM-RK shape function also possesses proper discontinuities at the triple junctions. This IM-RK approximation effectively remedies the well-known Gibb’s oscillation in the smooth approximation of discontinuities. Different from the conventional meshfree approaches for interface discontinuities, this IM-RK approach is done without additional degrees of freedom associated with the enrichment functions, and it is formulated with the standard procedures in the RK shape function construction. This work focuses on identifying the accuracy and convergence properties of IM-RKPM for modeling the coupled electro-chemo-mechanical system. A linear patch test is formulated and numerically tested for the electro-chemo-mechanical coupled problem with a Butler–Volmer boundary condition representing the physical conditions in Li-ion battery microstructures. This is followed by verification of the optimal rates of convergence of IM-RKPM for solving the coupled problem with higher order solutions. The image-based modeling of Li-ion battery microstructures in the numerical examples demonstrates the applicability of the proposed method to realistic Li-ion battery materials modeling.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward engineering lattice structures with the material point method (MPM)

This study examines the potential of two variants of the material point method—the generalized interpolation material point (GIMP) and dual domain material point (DDMP) methods—in developing a robust computational framework for engineering lattice structures under different loading conditions. The study begins with assessing the ability of the two methods in predicting elastic buckling phenomena using column geometries with and without initial geometric imperfections. The results indicate that both methods effectively capture buckling phenomena when initial geometric imperfections are introduced. After this verification step, we create several models of tetrahedral lattice structures with varying strut diameter and orientation and subject them to quasi-static loading. We then validate the numerical results using laboratory test results. The results show that, while both methods accurately predict load–displacement curves in the pre-buckling regime, their predictive capabilities diminish in the post-buckling regime. Through visual comparison between the numerical and experimental deformed shapes, it appears that the discrepancies between model and experimental results are attributed to initial geometric imperfections in the lattices that occurred during 3D printing. We then establish a second set of lattice models where different types of initial geometric imperfections are considered. The results from these models show that imperfections have a negligible influence in the pre-buckling regime but affect the behavior considerably in the post-buckling regime. As a final step in this work, we subject the lattice models to impact loading and employ hypothetical soft and stiff materials. These results show that the lattice stiffness, which depends on material stiffness, strut diameter, and orientation, significantly influences the ability of a lattice structure to resist impact. In particular, we find that a stiffer lattice (i.e., one made with a stiff material and thicker struts) is capable of absorbing more energy than a softer one during impact. Although material nonlinearities, inelasticity, and detailed contact formulations are not considered in this study, the findings obtained herein lay the groundwork for engineering lattice structures under extreme loading conditions through a simulation-driven framework based on particle-based methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

An efficient second-order adaptive procedure for inserting CAD geometries into hexahedral meshes using volume fractions

Here, this paper is concerned with inserting three-dimensional computer-aided design (CAD) geometries into meshes composed of hexahedral elements using a volume fraction representation. An adaptive procedure for doing so is presented. The procedure consists of two steps. The first step performs spatial acceleration using a k-d tree. The second step involves subdividing individual hexahedra in an adaptive mesh refinement (AMR)-like fashion and approximating the CAD geometry linearly (as a plane) at the finest subdivision. The procedure requires only two geometric queries from a CAD kernel: determining whether or not a queried spatial coordinate is inside or outside the CAD geometry and determining the closest point on the CAD geometry’s surface from a given spatial coordinate. We prove that the procedure is second-order accurate for sufficiently smooth geometries and sufficiently refined background meshes. We demonstrate the expected order of accuracy is achieved with several verification tests and illustrate the procedure’s effectiveness for several exemplar CAD geometries.

Adaptive↗
DOE OSTI2025

Global Gyrokinetic Simulations of Isotope Effects under Ambipolar Electric Fields and Advances Toward Whole-Volume Modeling

We review global gyrokinetic simulation studies on plasma transport in the Large Helical Device using XGC-S. XGC-S is an extended version of X-point Gyrokinetic Code for stellarators and has been progressively verified throughout the code development process. Verification tests of neoclassical transport successfully demonstrate the generation of an ambipolar electric field due to ripple-trapped particles. We perform quasi-linear analyses of the ion temperature gradient mode under the influence of the ambipolar electric field. The results reveal that the ambipolar electric field and the heavy hydrogen component in mixed isotope plasmas can lead to the favorable isotope effect observed in recent deuterium experiments. We also present recent efforts in code development toward whole-volume simulations, including the helical divertor region. A mesh generation scheme based on field-line tracing and the construction of curved surfaces perpendicular to the magnetic field would be promising for global field calculations in the whole-volume simulations.

Basic Plasma Phenomena and Gas Discharges↗
DOE OSTI2025

A new HALEU isotopic certified reference material

Candidate certified reference material (CRM) U196 was prepared by gravimetrically mixing and dissolving NNSA NRMP CRM 112-A (natural uranium metal) and CRM 116-A (highly enriched 93.2% 235 U metal) to achieve a high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) isotopic abundance reference material. CRM U196 will be certified for the 233 U/ 238 U, 234 U/ 238 U, 235 U/ 238 U, and 236 U/ 238 U ratios. Gravimetrically determined uranium isotope amount ratios and values derived from the isotope data were calculated from the buoyancy corrected mass data and from certified values for the metal CRMs used to create the solution. The 235 U isotope amount fraction (·100) and expanded uncertainty is 19.5846 ± 0.0028. For attribute verification, total evaporation and modified total evaporation isotope ratio measurements were performed. In conclusion, the reference material is to be distributed as a unit containing 5 mg uranium as dry uranyl nitrate.

High-assay low-enriched uranium↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reactive Transport Modeling with Physics-Informed Machine Learning for Critical Minerals Applications

This study presents a physics-informed neural network (PINN) framework for reactive transport modeling for simulating fast bimolecular reactions in porous media. Accurate characterization of cAhemical interactions and product formation in surface and subsurface environments is essential for advancing critical mineral extraction and related geoscience applications. The proposed methodology sequentially addresses the flow and diffusion–reaction subproblems. The flow field is computed using a mixed formulation, while the diffusion–reaction system is modeled via two uncoupled tensorial diffusion equations reformulated in terms of chemical invariants. PINNs are employed to solve the governing equations, enabling data-efficient, mesh-free prediction of chemical concentration fields. The framework is validated through a series of benchmark problems involving flow in heterogeneous porous media. Initial verification is conducted using patch tests for the flow field, followed by validation of the transport problem with emphasis on preserving non-negativity of concentrations. The complete fast bimolecular reaction scenario is then solved, yielding spatial distributions of reactants and product species. Results demonstrate that the PINNs-based approach effectively captures sharp, mixing-limited reaction fronts and dispersive mixing behavior, offering reliable predictions of reactive plume evolution. These capabilities are crucial for evaluating long-term subsurface behavior in applications such as fluid storage, energy extraction, and efficient extraction of critical minerals.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Grain boundary solute segregation across the 5D space of crystallographic character

Solute segregation in materials with grain boundaries (GBs) has emerged as a popular method to thermodynamically stabilize nanocrystalline structures. However, the impact of varied GB crystallographic character on solute segregation has never been thoroughly examined. Here, this work examines Co solute segregation in a dataset of 7272 Al bicrystal GBs that span the 5D space of GB crystallographic character. Considerable attention is paid to verification of the calculations in the diverse and large set of GBs. In addition, the results of this work are favorably validated against similar bicrystal and polycrystal simulations. As with other work, we show that Co atoms exhibit strong segregation to sites in Al GBs and that segregation correlates strongly with GB energy and GB excess volume. Segregation varies smoothly in the 5D crystallographic space but has a complex landscape without an obvious functional form.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating irrigation water use from remotely sensed evapotranspiration data: Accuracy and uncertainties at field, water right, and regional scales

Irrigated agriculture is the dominant user of water globally, but most water withdrawals are not monitored or reported. As a result, it is largely unknown when, where, and how much water is used for irrigation. Here, we evaluated the ability of remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) data, integrated with other datasets, to calculate irrigation water withdrawals and applications in an intensively irrigated portion of the United States. We compared irrigation calculations based on an ensemble of satellite-driven ET models from OpenET with reported groundwater withdrawals from hundreds of farmer irrigation application records and a statewide flowmeter database at three spatial scales (field, water right group, and management area). At the field scale, we found that ET-based calculations of irrigation agreed best with reported irrigation when the OpenET ensemble mean was aggregated to the growing season timescale (bias = 1.6–4.9%, R 2 = 0.53–0.74), and agreement between calculated and reported irrigation was better for multi-year averages than for individual years. At the water right group scale, linking pumping wells to specific irrigated fields was the primary source of uncertainty. At the management area scale, calculated irrigation exhibited similar temporal patterns as flowmeter data but tended to be positively biased with more interannual variability. Disagreement between calculated and reported irrigation was strongly correlated with annual precipitation, and calculated and reported irrigation agreed more closely after statistically adjusting for annual precipitation. The selection of an ET model was also an important consideration, as variability across ET models was larger than the potential impacts of conservation measures employed in the region. From these results, we suggest key practices for working with ET-based irrigation data that include accurately accounting for changes in soil moisture, deep percolation, and runoff; careful verification of irrigated area and well-field linkages; and conducting application-specific evaluations of uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Survey of prospective techniques for molten salt reactor feed monitoring

Safeguards verification measurements of nuclear material content in fresh fuel salt for liquid-fueled molten salt reactors (MSRs) are likely to be required as part of nuclear material accountancy for International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards. Here, this paper presents a comprehensive review and evaluation of 18 potential candidate techniques to quantify total uranium and 235 U for input accountancy measurements for liquid-fueled MSRs. As part of an overall screening and down-selection effort to identify the most promising techniques for further development for an MSR feed monitoring system, this paper defines eight figures of merit (FOMs): reasonably achievable measurement uncertainty, measurement time required, capital cost, burden upon the facility operator, maintenance intensity, technological maturity, human capital requirements for operation, and whether the technique introduces a path for potential material removal. Each candidate technique is then evaluated across these FOMs to identify the techniques with the highest potential for future development for fresh fuel accountancy measurements in MSRs. Our findings indicate that no single technique or combination thereof currently has the requisite technological maturity for immediate implementation in nuclear material accountancy at a liquid-fueled MSR facility. While several promising techniques are identified, there is a critical lack of experimental data for most systems in the context of molten salt applications.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗