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DOE OSTI2023

Review of TEAMER Awards for WEC-Sim Support: Preprint

Testing Expertise and Access for Marine Energy Research (TEAMER) is a U.S. Department of Energy Water Power Technologies Office sponsored program, overseen by the Pacific Ocean Energy Trust, which aims to advance the state of marine energy technologies. The program connects technology developers with experts at U.S. facilities, including numerical modeling and analysis facilities, like WEC-Sim. The WEC-Sim facility is supported by the WEC-Sim development team at Sandia National Laboratories and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. WEC-Sim (Wave Energy Converter SIMulator) is an open-source software for simulating wave energy converters. WEC-Sim can model the multi-body dynamics of devices comprised of bodies, joints, power take-off systems, and mooring systems. Since TEAMER's first round of support in 2020, there have been eighteen TEAMER awards focused on numerical model development in WEC-Sim. TEAMER awards for WEC-Sim support have modeled a wide range of wave energy converter archetypes, including point absorbers, attenuators, oscillating water columns, and many other novel architectures. A wide variety of studies have been conducted, leading to important insights for TEAMER partners and software improvements for WECSim. This article highlights several successful WEC-Sim TEAMER awards. The awards described herein include TEAMER recipients Ocean Motion Technologies, AquaHarmonics, iProTech, East Carolina University, Virginia Tech, Maiden Wave Energy, and the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth. The awards of these seven partners contain a wide range of investigations and cover the creation of baseline hydrodynamic models, PTO modeling, geometry optimization in both boundary element methods and WECSim, and model tuning and validation.

industry support↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1963

NASA Facility for the Study of Space Radiation Effects

Space particulate radiation from the Van Allen belts, solar flares, galactic cosmic, and manmade sources have energies and fluxes which are capable of producing damage in space mission payloads. NASA - Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia, has initiated the construction of a ground-based Space Radiation Effects Laboratory which simulates most of the space particulate energy spectrum and which can be used in a radiation research program for minimizing or eliminating deleterious radiation effects. A 600-megaelectronvolt synchrocyclotron of variable energy and electron accelerators from 1 to 10 megaelectronvolts will be included in the laboratory for accelerated testing. The plan of the proposed test areas reflects the latest advances in the state of the art as it pertains to the engineering and basic experimental requirements in flexibility, radiation background levels, shielding, and isolation. The laboratory operational plan permits three Virginia institutions of higher learning to cooperate with the Langley Research Center in carrying out radiation programs.

RADIATION EFFECT↗
NASA NTRS1971

NASA Aircraft Safety and Operating Problems, Volume 1

The proceedings of the Conference on NASA Aircraft Safety and Operating Problems held at Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia, on May 4-6, 1971, are reported in this NASA Special Publication. The purpose of this conference was to discuss the results of research of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration in the field of aircraft safety and operating problems. The unclassified program components include the following: Flight Safety Airway and Runway Environment Operational Experience With Subsonic Cruise Aircraft Cockpit Environment Terminal Area Operations Flight Environment Induced Environmental Effects Contributions to this compilation were made by representatives from Ames, Flight, Langley, and Lewis Research Centers, Manned Spacecraft Center, George C. Marshall Space Flight Center, the University of Virginia, the Research Triangle Institute, and the Federal Aviation Administration .

Aircraft Safety Office↗
NASA NTRS1971

Sounding rocket flight report: MUMP 9 and MUMP 10

The results of the launching of two Marshall-University of Michigan Probes (MUMP 9 and MUMP 10), Nike-Tomahawk sounding rocket payloads, are summarized. The MUMP 9 paylaod included an omegatron mass analyzer, a molecular fluorescence densitometer, a mini-tilty filter, and a lunar position sensor. This complement of instruments permitted the determination of the molecular nitrogen density and temperature in the altitude range from approximately 143 to 297 km over Wallops Island, Virginia, during January 1971. The MUMP 10 payload included an omegatron mass analyzer, an electron temperature probe (Spencer, Brace, and Carignan, 1962), a cryogenic densitometer, and a solar position sensor. This complement of instruments permitted the determination of the molecular nitrogen density and temperature and the charged particle density and temperature in the altitude range from approximately 145 to 290 km over Wallops Island, Virginia, during the afternoon preceding the MUMP 9 launch in January 1971. A general description of the payload kinematics, orientation analysis, and the technique for the reduction and analysis of the data is given.

Grassl, H. J.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Study of low density air transportation concepts

Low density air transport refers to air service to sparsely populated regions. There are two major objectives. The first is to examine those characteristics of sparsely populated areas which pertain to air transportation. This involves determination of geographical, commercial and population trends, as well as those traveler characteristics which affect the viability of air transport in the region. The second objective is to analyze the technical, economic and operational characteristics of low density air service. Two representative, but diverse arenas, West Virginia and Arizona, were selected for analysis: The results indicate that Arizona can support air service under certain assumptions whereas West Virginia cannot.

Webb, H. M.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Laboratory and field evaluation of an underwater sand height gage

An underwater sand height gage was investigated. This instrument consisted of two transducers, one screened and one unscreened. Laboratory experimentation included static and dynamic tests with three test sands--fine, medium, and coarse. Field tests were conducted at Rudee Inlet, Virginia Beach, Virginia. Test results showed a linear response to up to 10 inches of sand loading. Deviation observed in identical tests appeared to be due to variation in the density of sand. Density differences reflected varying packing styles which, in turn, were a consequence of grain size and flow regime. Further evaluations of the sand height gage reflect this instrument's potential.

Swift, D. J. P.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Atmospheric motion investigation for vapor trails and radio meteors

The dynamics are investigated of the lower thermosphere through comparison of optical observations of motions of ejected vapor trails with radar observations of motions of ionized meteor trails. In particular, the winds obtained from a series of vapor trail observations which occurred at Wallops Island, Virginia during the night of 14-15 December 1970 are to be compared with wind data deduced from radar observations of meteor trails during the same period. The comparison of these data is considered important for two reasons. First, the most widely used methods of measuring winds in the lower thermosphere are the vapor trails and the radar meteors. However, the two techniques differ markedly and the resultant sets of data have been analyzed and presented in different formats. Secondly, and possibly of greater immediate concern is the fact that the radar meteor method appears to be an appropriate approach to the synoptic measurement of winds. During the night of 14-15 December 1970, five vapor trails were ejected from Nike Apache rockets over Wallops Island, Virginia from 2208 EST through 0627 EST. The wind data which were obtained from these trails are presented, and features of the wind profiles which relate to the radar meteor trails results are discussed.

Bedinger, J.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Application of remote sensing to study nearshore circulation

Immediate use of drogued buoy tracking was made when the Virginia State Highway Department requested assistance in selecting the best route for a new bridge-tunnel complex across the James River at Newport News. The result was that the Highway Department acted and chose a preferred route from several alternatives. It was also observed that the drogues did not follow the channel as predicted by the James River hydraulic model. This permitted telling the Navy why it is that part of their channel always silts up. The Hampton Roads Sanitation District asked help locate the best route and position of an ocean sewer outfall. Biological activities are focused primarily on delineating biological interaction between the marsh and continental shelf waters on Virginia's Eastern Shore. Information derived is helpful in categorizing the relative biological value of different marsh areas so that meaningful use and management decisions can be made concerning their eventual disposition.

Welch, C. S.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Applications of remote sensing to estuarine management

Remote sensing was used in the resolution of estuarine problems facing federal and Virginia governmental agencies. A prototype Elizabeth River Surface Circulation Atlas was produced from photogrammetry to aid in oil spill cleanup and source identification. Aerial photo analysis twice led to selection of alternative plans for dredging and spoil disposal which minimized marsh damage. Marsh loss due to a mud wave from a highway dyke was measured on sequential aerial photographs. An historical aerial photographic sequence gave basis to a potential Commonwealth of Virginia legal claim to accreting and migrating coastal islands.

Munday, J. C., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1978

An evaluation of in situ ozone sensor performance during a cold frontal passage

The capabilities of the electrochemical concentration cell ozonesonde for measuring the vertical profile of atmospheric ozone were studied during a three day experiment at Wallops Island, Virginia, and Norfolk, Virginia. Using ancillary measurements at the surface and the spectrophotometer, it was concluded that the ozonesonde measures the total ozone overburden to within 10% of the real value. By releasing the balloon-borne instruments at a rate of four per day at each of the two sites, an indication was obtained of the temporal and spatial scales of atmospheric ozone variability. No significant effects of a weak cold front passage or of the loss of insolation at night were seen. An isolated incident of anomalously high ozone concentration at the peak of the profile was attributed to sporadic instrument performance effects. The data base currently available is not adequate for determining an exact cause of the anomaly.

Parsons, C. L.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Remote monitoring of a thermal plume

A remote-sensing experiment conducted on May 17, 1977, over the Surry nuclear power station on the James River, Virginia is discussed. Isotherms of the thermal plume from the power station were derived from remotely sensed data and compared with in situ water temperature measurements provided by the Virginia Electric and Power Company, VEPCO. The results of this study were also qualitatively compared with those from other previous studies under comparable conditions of the power station's operation and the ambient flow. These studies included hydraulic model predictions carried out by Pritchard and Carpenter and a 5-year in situ monitoring program based on boat surveys.

Kuo, C. Y.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Analysis of testbed airborne multispectral scanner data from Superflux II

A test bed aircraft multispectral scanner (TBAMS) was flown during the James Shelf, Plume Scan, and Chesapeake Bay missions as part of the Superflux 2 experiment. Excellent correlations were obtained between water sample measurements of chlorophyll and sediment and TBAMS radiance data. The three-band algorithms used were insensitive to aircraft altitude and varying atmospheric conditions. This was particularly fortunate due to the hazy conditions during most of the experiments. A contour map of sediment, and also chlorophyll, was derived for the Chesapeake Bay plume along the southern Virginia-Carolina coastline. A sediment maximum occurs about 5 nautical miles off the Virginia Beach coast with a chlorophyll maximum slightly shoreward of this. During the James Shelf mission, a thermal anomaly (or front) was encountered about 50 miles from the coast. There was a minor variation in chlorophyll and sediment across the boundary. During the Chesapeake Bay mission, the Sun elevation increased from 50 degrees to over 70 degrees, interfering with the generation of data products.

Bowker, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Mapping of deciduous forest cover using simulated Landsat-D TM data

An evaluation is presented of the supervised vegetation classification images of heavily forested terrain in the eastern US produced from simulated Landsat-D Thematic Mapper data as part of the Joint NASA/Geosat Test Case study of the Lost River, West Virginia, gas field. This investigation utilized data supplied by the NS-001 aircraft multispectral scanner (15 m IFOV) of NASA. The instruments recognized a total of 9 vegetation classes and one soil class. A hybrid parallelepiped-Bayesian maximum likelihood classifier was employed to produce the supervised vegetation classifications. The data were obtained at the height of the fall foliage display for this portion of West Virginia. Results show that both classifications are highly accurate, based on a comparison of assignment of vegetation classes on each of the images with actual ground conditions. It is noted that the anomalous distribution of certain woody species found in the resulting supervised classifications may be related to the microseepage of methane from the gas reservoir.

Rock, B. N.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The influence of ground conductivity on the structure of RF radiation from return strokes

The combination of the finite conductivity of the Earth plus the propagation of the return stroke current up the channel which results in an apparent time delay between the fast field changes and RF radiation for distant observers is shown. The time delay predicted from model return strokes is on the order of 20 micro and the received signal has the characteristics of the data observed in Virginia and Florida. A piecewise linear model for the return stroke channel and a transmission line model for current propagation on each segment was used. Radiation from each segment is calculated over a flat Earth with finite conductivity using asymptotics approximations for the Sommerfeld integrals. The radiation at the observer is processed by a model AM radio receiver. The output voltage was calculated for several frequencies between HF-UHF assuming a system bandwidth (300 kHz) characteristic of the system used to collect data in Florida and Virginia. Comparison with the theoretical fast field changes indicates a time delay of 20 microns.

Levine, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Simultaneous field measurements of biogenic emissions of nitric oxide and nitrous oxide

Seasonal and diurnal emissions of NO and N2O from agricultural sites in Jamestown, Virginia and Boulder, Colorado are estimated in terms of soil temperature; percent moisture; and exchangeable nitrate, nitrite, and ammonium concentrations. The techniques and procedures used to analyze the soil parameters are described. The spatial and temporal variability of the NO and N2O emissions is studied. A correlation between NO fluxes in the Virginia sample and nitrate concentration, temperature, and percent moisture is detected, and NO fluxes for the Colorado site correspond with temperature and moisture. It is observed that the N2O emissions are only present when percent moisture approaches or exceeds the field capacity of the soil. The data suggest that NO is produced primarily by nitrification in aerobic soils, and N2O is formed by denitrification in anaerobic soils.

Anderson, Iris Cofman↗
NASA NTRS1990

Aviation Safety/Automation Program Conference

The Aviation Safety/Automation Program Conference - 1989 was sponsored by the NASA Langley Research Center on 11 to 12 October 1989. The conference, held at the Sheraton Beach Inn and Conference Center, Virginia Beach, Virginia, was chaired by Samuel A. Morello. The primary objective of the conference was to ensure effective communication and technology transfer by providing a forum for technical interchange of current operational problems and program results to date. The Aviation Safety/Automation Program has as its primary goal to improve the safety of the national airspace system through the development and integration of human-centered automation technologies for aircraft crews and air traffic controllers.

Morello, Samuel A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Olympus propagation studies in the US: Propagation terminal hardware and experiments

Virginia Tech is performing a comprehensive set of propagation measurements using the Olympus satellite beacons at 12.5, 20, and 30 GHz. These data will be used to characterize propagation conditions on small earth terminal (VSAT)-type networks for next generation small aperture Ka-band systems. The European Space Agency (ESA) satellite Olympus was launched July 12, 1989. The spacecraft contains a sophisticated package of propagation beacons operating at 12.5, 19.77, and 29.66 GHz (referred to as 12.5, 20, and 30 beacons). These beacons cover the east coast of the United States with sufficient power for attenuation measurements. The Virginia Satellite Communications Group is completing the hardware construction phase and will begin formal data collection in June.

Stutzmzn, Warren L.↗