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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

On the effectiveness of neural operators at zero-shot weather downscaling

Machine-learning (ML) methods have shown great potential for weather downscaling. These data-driven approaches provide a more efficient alternative for producing high-resolution weather datasets and forecasts compared to physics-based numerical simulations. Neural operators, which learn solution operators for a family of partial differential equations, have shown great success in scientific ML applications involving physics-driven datasets. Neural operators are grid-resolution-invariant and are often evaluated on higher grid resolutions than they are trained on, i.e., zero-shot super-resolution. Given their promising zero-shot super-resolution performance on dynamical systems emulation, we present a critical investigation of their zero-shot weather downscaling capabilities, which is when models are tasked with producing high-resolution outputs using higher upsampling factors than are seen during training. To this end, we create two realistic downscaling experiments with challenging upsampling factors (e.g., 8x and 15x) across data from different simulations: the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) and the Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit. While neural operator-based downscaling models perform better than interpolation and a simple convolutional baseline, we show the surprising performance of an approach that combines a powerful transformer-based model with parameter-free interpolation at zero-shot weather downscaling. We find that this Swin-Transformer-based approach mostly outperforms models with neural operator layers in terms of average error metrics, whereas an Enhanced Super-Resolution Generative Adversarial Network-based approach is better than most models in terms of capturing the physics of the ground truth data. We suggest their use in future work as strong baselines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

ClimateNet: an expert-labeled open dataset and deep learning architecture for enabling high-precision analyses of extreme weather

Abstract. Identifying, detecting, and localizing extreme weather events is a crucial first step in understanding how they may vary under different climate change scenarios. Pattern recognition tasks such as classification, object detection, and segmentation (i.e., pixel-level classification) have remained challenging problems in the weather and climate sciences. While there exist many empirical heuristics for detecting extreme events, the disparities between the output of these different methods even for a single event are large and often difficult to reconcile. Given the success of deep learning (DL) in tackling similar problems in computer vision, we advocate a DL-based approach. DL, however, works best in the context of supervised learning – when labeled datasets are readily available. Reliable labeled training data for extreme weather and climate events is scarce. We create “ClimateNet” – an open, community-sourced human-expert-labeled curated dataset that captures tropical cyclones (TCs) and atmospheric rivers (ARs) in high-resolution climate model output from a simulation of a recent historical period. We use the curated ClimateNet dataset to train a state-of-the-art DL model for pixel-level identification – i.e., segmentation – of TCs and ARs. We then apply the trained DL model to historical and climate change scenarios simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5.1) and show that the DL model accurately segments the data into TCs, ARs, or “the background” at a pixel level. Further, we show how the segmentation results can be used to conduct spatially and temporally precise analytics by quantifying distributions of extreme precipitation conditioned on event types (TC or AR) at regional scales. The key contribution of this work is that it paves the way for DL-based automated, high-fidelity, and highly precise analytics of climate data using a curated expert-labeled dataset – ClimateNet. ClimateNet and the DL-based segmentation method provide several unique capabilities: (i) they can be used to calculate a variety of TC and AR statistics at a fine-grained level; (ii) they can be applied to different climate scenarios and different datasets without tuning as they do not rely on threshold conditions; and (iii) the proposed DL method is suitable for rapidly analyzing large amounts of climate model output. While our study has been conducted for two important extreme weather patterns (TCs and ARs) in simulation datasets, we believe that this methodology can be applied to a much broader class of patterns and applied to observational and reanalysis data products via transfer learning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data for: Climatic Imprint on Interfacially-Controlled Platinum-Palladium Resources

Data package for manuscript "Climatic Imprint on Interfacially-Controlled Platinum-Palladium Resources" by Emily G. Wright, Ivey Wang, Yihang Fang, Elaine D. Flynn, and Jeffrey G. Catalano. This dataset contains adsorption results from experiments designed to investigate the effect of chloride on Pd(II) adsorption to goethite and Pt(II) adsorption to hematite and goethite, including lab experiments, X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy, and models of retention within a laterite. See the associated manuscript for full methods information. The file "Wright2025_PtAds_data.csv" contains the target starting Pt concentration (uM), final aqueous Pt and associated error (in uM), calculated adsorbed Pt and associated error (in umol/m2), target and measured aqueous chloride (mM), target aqueous nitrate (mM), final pH, and mineral concentration/loading (g/L). Associated mineral-free controls (mineral loading = 0 g/L) are included; the aqueous Pd error was not calculated and chloride was not measured in every sample. These data appear in Figures 1, S3, S4, S5, S20, and S22 in the associated manuscript. The file "Wright2025_PdAds_data.csv" contains the target starting Pd concentration (uM), final aqueous Pd and associated error (in uM), calculated adsorbed Pd and associated error (in umol/m2), target and measured aqueous chloride (mM), and mineral concentration/loading (g/L). Associated mineral-free controls (mineral loading = 0 g/L) are included; the aqueous Pd error was not calculated and chloride was not measured in every sample. These data appear in Figures 1, S3, S4, S5, and S20 in the associated manuscript. The file "Wright2025_MineralBatches_data.csv" contains the mineral identity and BET specific surface area (m2/g) for every mineral batch synthesized and used in experiments. The annealing time used is listed for hydrothermally annealed goethite. These data appear in Table S2 in the associated manuscript. The file "Wright2025_XRD_data.csv" contains the XRD patterns for every mineral batch synthesized as the counts as a function of two theta (in degrees). See "Wright2025_MineralBatches_data.csv" for more details on specific mineral batches. These data appear in Figure S2 in the associated manuscript. The file "Wright 2025_ZetaPotential_data.csv" contains the measured zeta potentials for samples of goethite (batch G2) at pH 4 the presence of varying amounts of sodium chloride. These data appear in Table S3 in the associated manuscript. The file "Wright2025_XAFSSamples_data.csv" contains the specific mineral batch, measured final aqueous Pd or Pt (uM), measured final aqueous chloride (mM), and estimated adsorbed Pd or Pt (umol/m2) of all XAFS samples. These data appear in Tables S4, S7, S8, and S10 in the associated manuscript. The files "Wright2025_PdXAFS_data.csv" and "Wright2025_PtXAFS_data.csv" contain the normalized spectra of Pd and Pt, respectively, adsorbed to minerals at varying chloride concentrations. See "Wright2025_XAFSSamples_data.csv" for a guide to sample names. Note that "05" in a sample name is equivalent to "0.5". These data appear in Figures 2, S6, S7, S8, S12, S13, and S14 in the associated manuscript. The file "Wright2025_LateriteProfileProfileModelParameters_data.csv" include the ratio of hematite to hematite and goethite in two synthetic, modeled profiles, as well as the modeled surface areas of goethite and hematite as a function of relative depth within the modeled weathering zone. These data were used, in conjunction with equations presented in the paper, to calculate the theoretical concentrations of Pd and Pt (and the resulting Pt/Pd ratio) within the profiles. These data appear in Figure 3 in the associated manuscript. The file "Wright2025_Imagery_data.zip" is a zipped folder containing the TEM and STEM images appear in Figures S18 and S19. Individual files are labeled as either STEM (Fig. S18) or TEM (Fig. S19) with a letter representing the part of the multipart figure.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Super-Resolution for Renewable Energy Resource Data with Wind from Reanalysis Data and Application to Ukraine

With a potentially increasing share of the electricity grid relying on wind to provide generating capacity and energy, there is an expanding global need for historically accurate, spatiotemporally continuous, high-resolution wind data. Conventional downscaling methods for generating these data based on numerical weather prediction have a high computational burden and require extensive tuning for historical accuracy. In this work, we present a novel deep learning-based spatiotemporal downscaling method using generative adversarial networks (GANs) for generating historically accurate high-resolution wind resource data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Reanalysis version 5 data (ERA5). In contrast to previous approaches, which used coarsened high-resolution data as low-resolution training data, we use true low-resolution simulation outputs. We show that by training a GAN model with ERA5 as the low-resolution input and Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit (WTK) data as the high-resolution target, we achieved results comparable in historical accuracy and spatiotemporal variability to conventional dynamical downscaling. This GAN-based downscaling method additionally reduces computational costs over dynamical downscaling by two orders of magnitude. We applied this approach to downscale 30 km, hourly ERA5 data to 2 km, 5 min wind data for January 2000 through December 2023 at multiple hub heights over Ukraine, Moldova, and part of Romania. With WTK coverage limited to North America from 2007–2013, this is a significant spatiotemporal generalization. The geographic extent centered on Ukraine was motivated by stakeholders and energy-planning needs to rebuild the Ukrainian power grid in a decentralized manner. This 24-year data record is the first member of the super-resolution for renewable energy resource data with wind from the reanalysis data dataset (Sup3rWind).

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Provider - University of Washington - Raw Data

GOES satellite, WSR-88D radar, sounding balloon, surface weather observation and mesoscale model data from the area within, up, and downstream of the study area for use in event logging procedures and case study investigations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Provider - University of Washington - Reviewed Data

GOES satellite, WSR-88D radar, sounding balloon, surface weather observation and mesoscale model data from the area within, up, and downstream of the study area for use in event logging procedures and case study investigations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Comprehensive Northern Hemisphere Particle Microphysics Data Set From the Precipitation Imaging Package

Microphysical observations of precipitating particles are critical data sources for numerical weather prediction models and remote sensing retrieval algorithms. However, obtaining coherent data sets of particle microphysics is challenging as they are often unindexed, distributed across disparate institutions, and have not undergone a uniform quality control process. This work introduces a unified, comprehensive Northern Hemisphere particle microphysical data set from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration precipitation imaging package (PIP), accessible in a standardized data format and stored in a centralized, public repository. Data is collected from 10 measurement sites spanning 34° latitude (37°N–71°N) over 10 years (2014–2023), which comprise a set of 1,070,000 precipitating minutes. The provided data set includes measurements of a suite of microphysical attributes for both rain and snow, including distributions of particle size, vertical velocity, and effective density, along with higher-order products including an approximation of volume-weighted equivalent particle densities, liquid equivalent snowfall, and rainfall rate estimates. The data underwent a rigorous standardization and quality assurance process to filter out erroneous observations to produce a self-describing, scalable, and achievable data set. Case study analyses demonstrate the capabilities of the data set in identifying physical processes like precipitation phase-changes at high temporal resolution. Bulk precipitation characteristics from a multi-site intercomparison also highlight distinct microphysical properties unique to each location. This curated PIP data set is a robust database of high-quality particle microphysical observations for constraining future precipitation retrieval algorithms, and offers new insights toward better understanding regional and seasonal differences in bulk precipitation characteristics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Star-exoplanet interactions: A growing interdisciplinary field in heliophysics

Traditionally, heliophysics is characterized as the study of the near-Earth space environment, where plasmas and neutral gases originating from the Earth, the Sun, and other solar system bodies interact in ways that are detectable only through in-situ or close-range (usually within ~10 AU) remote sensing. As a result, heliophysics has data from the space environment around a handful of solar system objects, in particular the Sun and Earth. Comparatively, astrophysics has data from an extensive array of objects, but is more limited in temporal, spatial, and wavelength information from any individual object. Thus, our understanding of planetary space environments as a complex, multi-dimensional network of specific interacting systems may in the past have seemed to have little to do with the highly diverse space environments detected through astrophysical methods. Recent technological advances have begun to bridge this divide. Exoplanetary studies are opening up avenues to study planetary environments beyond our solar system, with missions like Kepler, TESS, and JWST, along with increasing capabilities of ground-based observations. At the same time, heliophysics studies are pushing beyond the boundaries of our heliosphere with Voyager, IBEX, and the future IMAP mission. The interdisciplinary field of star-exoplanet interactions is a critical, growing area of study that enriches heliophysics. A multidisciplinary approach to heliophysics enables us to better understand universal processes that operate in diverse environments, as well as the evolution of our solar system and extreme space weather. The expertise, data, theory, and modeling tools developed by heliophysicists are crucial in understanding the space environments of exoplanets, their host stars, and their potential habitability. The mutual benefit that heliophysics and exoplanetary studies offer each other depends on strong, continuing solar system-focused and Earth-focused heliophysics studies. The heliophysics discipline requires new targeted funding to support inter-divisional opportunities, including small multi-disciplinary research projects, large collaborative research teams, and observations targeting the heliophysics of planetary and exoplanet systems. Here we discuss areas of heliophysics-relevant exoplanetary research, observational opportunities and challenges, and ways to promote the inclusion of heliophysics within the wider exoplanetary community.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Wind Resource Data for Southeast Asia Using a Hybrid Numerical Weather Prediction with Machine Learning Super Resolution Approach

In this work we develop and present a machine learning based downscaling approach using generative adversarial networks (GANs). GANs learn to distinguish the relationships between low-resolution and high-resolution simulations and generate accurate high-resolution output from low-resolution input (Stengel, Glaws, Hettinger, & King, 2020). Low-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations at 9-km spatial and 60-minute temporal resolution were executed over Southeast Asia to provide input to the GANs model. GANs for wind, temperature, and pressure were trained on coarsened WIND Toolkit data with a diverse sampling of terrain and meteorological conditions. After training, the NWP simulations over Southeast Asia were enhanced by 3x along each horizontal spatial dimension and 4x along the temporal dimension. This novel downscaling approach generated 15-year high-resolution wind, temperature, and pressure data from January 2007 through December 2021 at multiple hub heights over Southeast Asia at 3-km spatial and 15-minute temporal resolution with a 16x reduction in compute time over standard dynamical downscaling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Meta-modeling strategy for data-driven forecasting

Accurately forecasting the weather is a key requirement for climate change mitigation. Data-driven methods offer the ability to make more accurate forecasts, but lack interpretability and can be expensive to train and deploy if models are not carefully developed. Here, we make use of two historical climate data sets and tools from machine learning, to accurately predict temperature fields. Furthermore, we are able to use low fidelity models that are cheap to train and evaluate, to selectively avoid expensive high fidelity function evaluations, as well as uncover seasonal variations in predictive power. This allows for an adaptive training strategy for computationally efficient geophysical emulation.

Skinner, Dominic J↗
DOE OSTI2020

UNRAVEL: A Robust Modular Velocity Dealiasing Technique for Doppler Radar

Unfold Radar Velocity (UNRAVEL) is an open-source modular Doppler velocity dealiasing algorithm for weather radars. UNRAVEL is an algorithm that does not need external reference velocity data, making it easily applicable. The proposed algorithm includes 11 core modules and 2 dealiasing strategies. UNRAVEL is an iterative algorithm. The goal is to build the dealiasing results starting with the strictest possible continuity tests in azimuth and range and, after each step, relaxing the parameters to include more results from a progressively growing number of reference points. UNRAVEL also has modules that perform 3D continuity checks. Thanks to this modular design, the number of dealiasing strategies can be expanded in order to optimize the dealiasing results. While the first driver dealiases Doppler velocity from each tilt independently from one another, the second driver also performs a three-dimensional continuity check of the velocity using successive elevations. The proposed dealiasing algorithm is tested using severe weather data from an S-band Doppler radar that have been aliased to mimic aliased radial velocity patterns that would be observed by a C-band Doppler radar. Artificially aliasing S-band data permits creation of a reference to which the performance of various dealiasing techniques can be compared. Comparisons show that UNRAVEL consistently outperforms other established dealiasing algorithms for the test period selected in this work.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Key environmental and production factors for understanding variation in switchgrass chemical attributes

Abstract Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.) is a promising feedstock for bioenergy and bioproducts; however, its inherent variability in chemical attributes creates challenges for uniform conversion efficiencies and product quality. It is necessary to understand the range of variation and factors (i.e., field management, environmental) influencing chemical attributes for process improvement and risk assessment. The objectives of this study were to (1) examine the impact of nitrogen fertilizer application rate, year, and location on switchgrass chemical attributes, (2) examine the relationships among chemical attributes, weather and soil data, and (3) develop models to predict chemical attributes using environmental factors. Switchgrass samples from a field study spanning four locations including upland cultivars, one location including a lowland cultivar, and between three and six harvest years were assessed for glucan, xylan, lignin, volatiles, carbon, nitrogen, and ash concentrations. Using variance estimation, location/cultivar, nitrogen application rate, and year explained 65%–96% of the variation for switchgrass chemical attributes. Location/cultivar × year interaction was a significant factor for all chemical attributes indicating environmental‐based influences. Nitrogen rate was less influential. Production variables and environmental conditions occurring during the switchgrass field trials were used to successfully predict chemical attributes using linear regression models. Upland switchgrass results highlight the complexity in plant responses to growing conditions because all production and environmental variables had strong relationships with one or more chemical attributes. Lowland switchgrass was limited to observations of year‐to‐year environmental variability and nitrogen application rate. All explanatory variable categories were important for lowland switchgrass models but stand age and precipitation relationships were particularly strong. The relationships found in this study can be used to understand spatial and temporal variation in switchgrass chemical attributes. The ability to predict chemical attributes critical for conversion processes in a geospatial/temporal manner would provide state‐of‐the‐art knowledge for risk assessment in the bioenergy and bioproducts industry.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Analysis of PNM's Renewable Reserve Requirements to Meet New Mexico's Decarbonization Goals

Over the next three years, the Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) plans to increase utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity from today’s roughly 330MW to about 1600MW. This massive increase in variable generation—from about 15% to 75% of peak load—will require changes in how PNM operates their system. We characterize the 5 and 30-minute solar and wind forecast errors that the system is likely to experience in order to determine the level of reserves needed to counteract such events. Our focus in this study is on negative forecast error (in other words, shortfalls relative to forecast) – whereas excess variable generation can be curtailed if needed, a shortfall must be compensated for to avoid loss of load. Calculating forecast error requires the use of the same forecasting methods that PNM uses or a reasonable approximation thereof. For wind, we use a persistence forecast on actual 5-minute 2019 wind output data (scaled up to reflect the amount of wind capacity planned for 2025). For solar, we use a formula incorporating the clear sky index (CSI) for the forecast. As the solar on the grid now is a small fraction of what is planned for 2025, we generated 5-minute solar data using 2019 weather inputs. We find that to handle 99.9% of the 5-minute negative forecast errors, a maximum of 275MW of variable generation reserve during daylight hours, and a maximum of 75MW during non-daylight hours, should be sufficient. Note that this variable generation reserve is an additional reserve category that specifies reserves over and above what are currently carried for contingency reserve. This would require a significant increase in reserve relative to what PNM currently carries or can call upon from other utilities per reserve sharing agreements. This variable generation reserve specification may overestimate the actual level needed to deal with PNM’s planned variable generation in 2025. The forecasting methodologies used in this study likely underperform PNM’s forecasting – and better forecasting allows for less reserve. To obtain more precise estimates, it is necessary to consider load and use the same forecasting inputs and methods used by PNM.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Guidance for Grid Resilience Decisions in Rural Minnesota

This report assesses the hazard landscape of the state of Minnesota, identifies weather hazards that are most impactful to the distribution system, includes a statewide assessment of household access to services dependent on reliable power, reviews resilience planning activities of electric utilities in Minnesota, and presents analysis of distribution grid performance in the face of extreme weather events with data from seven electric cooperatives dispersed throughout outstate Minnesota. This information is synthesized to provide considerations for resilience investment prioritization.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

2023 National Offshore Wind data set (NOW-23)

The 2023 National Offshore Wind data set (NOW-23) is the latest wind resource data set for offshore regions in the United States, which supersedes, for its offshore component, the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, which was published about a decade ago and is currently one of the primary resources for stakeholders conducting wind resource assessments in the continental United States. The NOW-23 data set was produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) version 4.2.1. A regional approach was used: for each offshore region, the WRF setup was selected based on validation against available observations. The WRF model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts 5 Reanalysis (ERA-5) data set, using a 6-hour refresh rate. The model is configured with an initial horizontal grid spacing of 6 km and an internal nested domain that refined the spatial resolution to 2 km. The model is run with 61 vertical levels, with 12 levels in the lower 300m of the atmosphere, stretching from 5 m to 45 m in height. The MYNN planetary boundary layer and surface layer schemes were used the North Atlantic, Mid Atlantic, Great Lakes, Hawaii, and North Pacific regions. On the other hand, using the YSU planetary boundary layer and MM5 surface layer schemes resulted in a better skill in the South Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and South Pacific regions. A more detailed description of the WRF model setup can be found in the WRF namelist files linked at the bottom of this page. For all regions, the NOW-23 data set coverage starts on January 1, 2000. For Hawaii and the North Pacific regions, NOW-23 goes until December 31, 2019. For the South Pacific region, the model goes until 31 December, 2022. For all other regions, the model covers until December 31, 2020. Outputs are available at 5 minute resolution, and for all regions we have also included output files at hourly resolution. The NOW-23 data are provided here as HDF5 files. Examples of how to use the HSDS Service to Access the NOW-23 files are linked below. A list of the variables included in the NOW-23 files is also linked below. No filters have been applied to the raw WRF output.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Climatology and Life‐Cycle Characteristics of Atmospheric Fronts and Their Associated Precipitation

Abstract Atmospheric fronts are one of the main sources of mid‐latitude variability. We employ a novel method for identifying and tracking fronts and frontal precipitation. Thermal and dynamical variables are used to identify fronts as areal objects in space, which are tracked in time using the open‐source TempestExtremes software package. Precipitation objects are co‐located to identify frontal precipitation. The method is subjected to validation and sensitivity tests using manually curated data from the National Weather Service. Climatologies of fronts and frontal precipitation are computed from reanalysis and observations; fronts are present upwards of 14% of the time in the storm tracks, and represent the majority (up to 90%) of total and extreme precipitation. Novel aspects of the method are showcased through the lifetime characteristics of fronts across North America. Three sets of warm and cold fronts were discovered, and their duration, distance‐traveled, and translation velocity are examined. Plain Language Summary Mid‐latitude low‐pressure systems and weather fronts are important for our day‐to‐day experience of weather events, particularly in the mid‐latitudes. This work makes use of standardized atmospheric data and creates a method of automatically tracking these important atmospheric features and their precipitation to quantify their relative role in global precipitation. Weather fronts are persistent in the mid‐latitudes and are associated with the majority of precipitation–particularly the most intense precipitation. Trajectories of fronts over North America are categorized to create a set of archetypal fronts that occur in that region. The differences between these types of fronts are characterized. Key Points An automated, efficient, and skillful frontal detection algorithm is developed and validated Fronts contribute a larger fraction of extreme precipitation than all precipitation in mid‐latitude storm tracks Fronts across North America have substantial variation in characteristics depending on their origin location

extratropical cyclone↗