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Supporting resilience in nuclear power plant operations - conceptual frames for human factors development and validation - 166

This is a summary paper of conceptual developments on nuclear power plant operation by the human factors team at VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland. While drawing together years of studies, the paper also discusses recent progresses in training development. Firstly, there is a long background in work analysis and system validation. The analysis model applied provides a model for assessing and identifying 'core-task functions,' that is, basic functions that should be fulfilled within work activity. Secondly, we have evaluated the existing training practices at a Finnish plant and identified challenges that could be generally prevalent in the nuclear domain - they seem to reflect the hierarchical and safety-critical nature of NPP operation. In terms of potential solutions, we are currently testing and developing some new self-evaluation and self-confrontation methods. First and foremost, however, we discuss the common theory basis for our research approaches. On the broadest level, our development and research work reflects the view of safety as expressed by resilience engineering literature: safety is not seen merely as 'negative' lack of mistakes, but also as 'positive' capability to solve and anticipate problems. For example, it is assumed that operators' capability for situational interpretation should be supported at all times: even if the emergency procedures dictate operator activity specifically, the operators should understand the influence of the operating procedures for the plant process and system state. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Gradient-Based Optimization of the Common Research Model Wing Subject to CFD-Based Gust and Flutter Constraints

The linearized frequency-domain method was recently implemented in the stabilized finite element solver in NASA’s FUN3D code. Previous work by the authors used this method for enforcing flutter constraints during gradient-based optimizations. More recently, the solver was expanded to account for continuous (also known as stochastic) gust responses. This paper expands on recent Common Research Model wing optimization work, which demonstrated gradient-based optimization with flutter and stochastic gust constraints, among others. While that work utilized FUN3D for static aeroelastic solutions but relied on doublet lattice aerodynamics for gust and flutter responses, the present work replaces these unsteady aerodynamic analyses with those of FUN3D’s linearized frequency-domain solver. With analytic derivatives available, gradient-based optimization is performed through the use of the OpenMDAO/MPhys libraries with over 700 shape, structural, and aerodynamic design variables and over 10 nonlinear constraints. Comparisons of analysis results and optimized designs are made between doublet lattice and linearized frequency-domain solutions.

aeroelasticity↗

Measurement of D-T Neutron Source Flux by SelfNeutron Activation Analysis with a LaBr3 Detector

Conclusions: • Decay of 78Br produced from the 79Br(n,2n) reaction in LaBr3 is present in the spectrum plotted in the time domain. • The neutron production rate reconstructed from preliminary LaBr3 estimate is smaller than the generator output. • Generator characterization may become more routine if a simple and robust method is made available for applications. Ongoing work: • Implementing bootstrapping to improve error estimates. • Examining threshold and edge effects of LaBr3

SMITH, MURRY↗

User-Centered Evaluation of Visual Analytics

Visual analytics systems are becoming very popular. More domains now use interactive visualizations to analyze the ever-increasing amount and heterogeneity of data. More novel visualizations are being developed for more tasks and users. We need to ensure that these systems can be evaluated to determine that they are both useful and usable. A user-centered evaluation for visual analytics needs to be developed for these systems. While many of the typical human-computer interaction (HCI) evaluation methodologies can be applied as is, others will need modification. Additionally, new functionality in visual analytics systems needs new evaluation methodologies. There is a difference between usability evaluations and user-centered evaluations. Usability looks at the efficiency, effectiveness, and user satisfaction of users carrying out tasks with software applications. User-centered evaluation looks more specifically at the utility provided to the users by the software. This is reflected in the evaluations done and in the metrics used. In the visual analytics domain this is very challenging as users are most likely experts in a particular domain, the tasks they do are often not well defined, the software they use needs to support large amounts of different kinds of data, and often the tasks last for months. These difficulties are discussed more in the section on User-centered Evaluation. Our goal is to provide a discussion of user-centered evaluation practices for visual analytics, including existing practices that can be carried out and new methodologies and metrics that need to be developed and agreed upon by the visual analytics community. The material provided here should be of use for both researchers and practitioners in the field of visual analytics. Researchers and practitioners in HCI and interested in visual analytics will find this information useful as well as a discussion on changes that need to be made to current HCI practices to make them more suitable to visual analytics. A history of analysis and analysis techniques and problems is provided as well as an introduction to user-centered evaluation and various evaluation techniques for readers from different disciplines. The understanding of these techniques is imperative if we wish to support analysis in the visual analytics software we develop. Currently the evaluations that are conducted and published for visual analytics software are very informal and consist mainly of comments from users or potential users. Our goal is to help researchers in visual analytics to conduct more formal user-centered evaluations. While these are time-consuming and expensive to carryout, the outcomes of these studies will have a defining impact on the field of visual analytics and help point the direction for future features and visualizations to incorporate. While many researchers view work in user-centered evaluation as a less-than-exciting area to work, the opposite is true. First of all, the goal is user-centered evaluation is to help visual analytics software developers, researchers, and designers improve their solutions and discover creative ways to better accommodate their users. Working with the users is extremely rewarding as well. While we use the term “users” in almost all situations there are a wide variety of users that all need to be accommodated. Moreover, the domains that use visual analytics are varied and expanding. Just understanding the complexities of a number of these domains is exciting. Researchers are trying out different visualizations and interactions as well. And of course, the size and variety of data are expanding rapidly. User-centered evaluation in this context is rapidly changing. There are no standard processes and metrics and thus those of us working on user-centered evaluation must be creative in our work with both the users and with the researchers and developers.

intelligence analysis↗

Cost Scaling of a Real-World Exhaust Waste Heat Recovery Thermoelectric Generator: A Deeper Dive

Cost is equally important to power density or efficiency for the adoption of waste heat recovery thermoelectric generators (TEG) in many transportation and industrial energy recovery applications. In many cases the system design that minimizes cost (e.g., the $/W value) can be very different than the design that maximizes the system's efficiency or power density, and it is important to understand the relationship between those designs to optimize TEG performance-cost compromises. Expanding on recent cost analysis work and using more detailed system modeling, an enhanced cost scaling analysis of a waste heat recovery thermoelectric generator with more detailed, coupled treatment of the heat exchangers has been performed. In this analysis, the effect of the heat lost to the environment and updated relationships between the hot-side and cold-side conductances that maximize power output are considered. This coupled thermal and thermoelectric treatment of the exhaust waste heat recovery thermoelectric generator yields modified cost scaling and design optimization equations, which are now strongly dependent on the heat leakage fraction, exhaust mass flow rate, and heat exchanger effectiveness. This work shows that heat exchanger costs most often dominate the overall TE system costs, that it is extremely difficult to escape this regime, and in order to achieve TE system costs of $1/W it is necessary to achieve heat exchanger costs of $1/(W/K). Minimum TE system costs per watt generally coincide with maximum power points, but Preferred TE Design Regimes are identified where there is little cost penalty for moving into regions of higher efficiency and slightly lower power outputs. These regimes are closely tied to previously-identified low cost design regimes. This work shows that the optimum fill factor Fopt minimizing system costs decreases as heat losses increase, and increases as exhaust mass flow rate and heat exchanger effectiveness increase. These findings have profound implications on the design and operation of various thermoelectric (TE) waste heat 3 recovery systems. This work highlights the importance of heat exchanger costs on the overall TEG system costs, quantifies the possible TEG performance-cost domain space based on heat exchanger effects, and provides a focus for future system research and development efforts.

cost analysis↗

Gamma-ray burst detection prospects for next generation ground-based VHE facilities

ABSTRACT Gamma-ray Bursts (GRB) were discovered by satellite-based detectors as powerful sources of transient γ-ray emission. The Fermi satellite detected an increasing number of these events with its dedicated Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM), some of which were associated with high energy photons ($E \gt 10$ GeV), by the Large Area Telescope (LAT). More recently, follow-up observations by Cherenkov telescopes detected very high energy emission ($E \gt 100$ GeV) from GRBs, opening up a new observational window with implications on the interpretation of their central engines and on the propagation of very energetic photons across the Universe. Here, we use the data published in the 2nd Fermi-LAT Gamma Ray Burst Catalogue to characterize the duration, luminosity, redshift, and light curve of the high energy GRB emission. We extrapolate these properties to the very high energy domain, comparing the results with available observations and with the potential of future instruments. We use observed and simulated GRB populations to estimate the chances of detection with wide-field ground-based γ-ray instruments. Our analysis aims to evaluate the opportunities of the Southern Wide-field-of-view Gamma-ray Observatory (SWGO), to be installed in the Southern Hemisphere, to complement CTA. We show that a low-energy observing threshold ($E_{low} \lt 200$ GeV), with good point source sensitivity ($F_{lim} \approx 10^{-11} \,\mathrm{erg\, cm^{-2}\, s^{-1}}$ in $1$ yr), are optimal requirements to work as a GRB trigger facility and to probe the burst spectral properties down to time-scales as short as $10$ s, accessing a time domain that will not be available to Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes instruments.

La Mura, G. (ORCID:000000018553499X)↗

Developing a digital twin framework for remotely monitoring nuclear reactor facilities

A digital twin must seek to represent all applicable functional components of the system of interest. Different expertise is required for understanding the physical system being modeled than the skills needed for transforming those models into a functional digital twin through physics modeling, machine learning analysis, and visualization. The diversity of knowledge requires a multi-disciplinary team to ensure all system details are captured. Team members also need a method to verify that the data they generate within their domain can be effectively communicated to professionals in other fields. To address this challenge, this work provides an approach for developing a digital twin framework to remotely monitoring nuclear facilities. Through this, general knowledge of the framework is presented along with two examples to solidify the process. The AGN-201 digital twin and microreactor digital twins provide varying levels of complexity in a potential nuclear facility, where common threads are identified and lessons learned are provided. The goal of this research is to aid future researchers by providing a formula for a successful digital twin and in turn reducing the development time of nuclear system digital twins, specifically for remote monitoring.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A Hyperthermophilic Phage Decoration Protein Suggests Common Evolutionary Origin with Herpesvirus Triplex Proteins and an Anti-CRISPR Protein

Virus capsids are protein shells that protect the viral genome from environmental assaults, while maintaining the high internal pressure of the tightly packaged genome. To elucidate how capsids maintain stability under harsh conditions, we investigated the capsid components of the hyperthermophilic phage P74-26. We determined the structure of capsid protein gp87 and show that it has the same fold as decoration proteins in many other phages, despite lacking significant sequence homology. Interestingly, we also find that gp87 is significantly more stable than mesophilic homologs. Our analysis of the gp87 structure reveals that the core “β tulip” domain is conserved in trimeric capsid components across numerous double-stranded DNA viruses, including Herpesviruses. Moreover, this β barrel domain is found in anti-CRISPR protein AcrIIC1, suggesting a mechanism for the evolution of this Cas9 inhibitor. Our work illustrates the principles for increased stability of gp87, and extends the evolutionary reach of the β tulip domain.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Crystal Structure of Aspirin-Acetylated Human Cyclooxygenase-2: Insight into the Formation of Products with Reversed Stereochemistry

Aspirin and other nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs target the cyclooxygenase enzymes (COX-1 and COX-2) to block the formation of prostaglandins. Aspirin is unique in that it covalently modifies each enzyme by acetylating Ser-530 within the cyclooxygenase active site. Acetylation of COX-1 leads to complete loss of activity, while acetylation of COX-2 results in the generation of the monooxygenated product 15(R)-hydroxyeicosatetraenoic acid (15R-HETE). Ser-530 has also been shown to influence the stereochemistry for the addition of oxygen to the prostaglandin product. In this work, we determined the crystal structures of S530T murine (mu) COX-2, aspirin-acetylated human (hu) COX-2, and huCOX-2 in complex with salicylate to 1.9, 2.0, and 2.4 Å, respectively. The structures reveal that (1) the acetylated Ser-530 completely blocks access to the hydrophobic groove, (2) the observed binding pose of salicylate is reflective of the enzyme–inhibitor complex prior to acetylation, and (3) the observed Thr-530 rotamer in the S530T muCOX-2 crystal structure does not impede access to the hydrophobic groove. On the basis of these structural observations, along with functional analysis of the S530T/G533V double mutant, we propose a working hypothesis for the generation of 15R-HETE by aspirin-acetylated COX-2. We also observe differential acetylation of COX-2 purified in various detergent systems and nanodiscs, indicating that detergent and lipid binding within the membrane-binding domain of the enzyme alters the rate of the acetylation reaction in vitro.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The simulated catalogue of optical transients and correlated hosts (SCOTCH)

ABSTRACT As we observe a rapidly growing number of astrophysical transients, we learn more about the diverse host galaxy environments in which they occur. Host galaxy information can be used to purify samples of cosmological Type Ia supernovae, uncover the progenitor systems of individual classes, and facilitate low-latency follow-up of rare and peculiar explosions. In this work, we develop a novel data-driven methodology to simulate the time-domain sky that includes detailed modelling of the probability density function for multiple transient classes conditioned on host galaxy magnitudes, colours, star formation rates, and masses. We have designed these simulations to optimize photometric classification and analysis in upcoming large synoptic surveys. We integrate host galaxy information into the snana simulation framework to construct the simulated catalogue of optical transients and correlated hosts (SCOTCH, a publicly available catalogue of 5-million idealized transient light curves in LSST passbands and their host galaxy properties over the redshift range 0 < z < 3. This catalogue includes supernovae, tidal disruption events, kilonovae, and active galactic nuclei. Each light curve consists of true top-of-the-galaxy magnitudes sampled with high (≲2 d) cadence. In conjunction with SCOTCH, we also release an associated set of tutorials and transient-specific libraries to enable simulations of arbitrary space- and ground-based surveys. Our methodology is being used to test critical science infrastructure in advance of surveys by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and the Nancy G. Roman Space Telescope.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Models for randomly distributed nanoscopic domains on spherical vesicles

The existence of lipid domains in the plasma membrane of biological systems has proven controversial, primarily due to their nanoscopic size—a length scale difficult to interrogate with most commonly used experimental techniques. Scattering techniques have recently proven capable of studying nanoscopic lipid domains populating spherical vesicles. However, the development of analytical methods able of predicting and analyzing domain pair correlations from such experiments has not kept pace. In our work, we developed models for the random distribution of monodisperse, circular nanoscopic domains averaged on the surface of a spherical vesicle. Specifically, the models take into account (i) intradomain correlations corresponding to form factors and interdomain correlations corresponding to pair distribution functions, and (ii) the analytical computation of interdomain correlations for cases of two and three domains on a spherical vesicle. In the case of more than three domains, these correlations are treated either by Monte Carlo simulations or by spherical analogs of the Ornstein-Zernike and Percus-Yevick (PY) equations. Importantly, the spherical analog of the PY equation works best in the case of nanoscopic size domains, a length scale that is mostly inaccessible by experimental approaches such as, for example, fluorescent techniques and optical microscopies. The analytical form factors and structure factors of nanoscopic domains populating a spherical vesicle provide a new and important framework for the quantitative analysis of experimental data from commonly studied phase-separated vesicles used in a wide range of biophysical studies.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

KKT Preconditioners for PDE-Constrained Optimization with the Helmholtz Equation

This paper considers preconditioners for the linear systems that arise from optimal control and inverse problems involving the Helmholtz equation. Specifically, we explore an all-at-once approach. The main contribution centers on the analysis of two block preconditioners. Variations of these preconditioners have been proposed and analyzed in prior works for optimal control problems where the underlying partial differential equation is a Laplace-like operator. In this paper, we extend some of the prior convergence results to Helmholtz-based optimization applications. Our analysis examines situations where control variables and observations are restricted to subregions of the computational domain. We prove that solver convergence rates do not deteriorate as the mesh is refined or as the wavenumber increases. More specifically, for one of the preconditioners we prove accelerated convergence as the wavenumber increases. Additionally, in situations where the control and observation subregions are disjoint, we observe that solver convergence rates have a weak dependence on the regularization parameter. We give a partial analysis of this behavior. We illustrate the performance of the preconditioners on control problems motivated by acoustic testing.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Two-Dimensional Nonlinear Finite Element Analysis of CMC Microstructures

Detailed two-dimensional finite element analyses of the cross-sections of a model CVI (chemical vapor infiltrated) SiC/SiC (silicon carbide fiber in a silicon carbide matrix) ceramic matrix composites are performed. High resolution images of the cross-section of this composite material are generated using serial sectioning of the test specimens. These images are then used to develop very detailed finite element models of the cross-sections using the public domain software OOF2 (Object Oriented Analysis of Material Microstructures). Examination of these images shows that these microstructures have significant variability and irregularity. How these variabilities manifest themselves in the variability in effective properties as well as the stress distribution, damage initiation and damage progression is the overall objective of this work. Results indicate that even though the macroscopic stress-strain behavior of various sections analyzed is very similar, each section has a very distinct damage pattern when subjected to in-plane tensile loads and this damage pattern seems to follow the unique architectural and microstructural details of the analyzed sections.

Mital, Subodh K.↗

Direct Numerical Simulation of the Flow through a Randomly Packed Pebble Bed

The proposition for molten salt and high-temperature gas-cooled reactors has increased the focus on the dynamics and physics in randomly packed pebble beds. Research is being conducted on the validity of these designs as a possible contestant for the fourth-generation nuclear power systems. A detailed understanding of the coolant flow behavior is required in order to ensure proper cooling of the reactor core during normal and accident conditions. In order to increase the understanding of the flow through these complex geometries and enhance the accuracy of lower-fidelity modeling, high-fidelity approaches such as direct numerical simulation (DNS) can be utilized. Nek5000, a spectral-element computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code, was used to develop DNS fluid flow data. The flow domain consisted of 147 pebbles enclosed by a bounding wall. In the work presented, the Reynolds numbers ranged from 430 to 1050 based on the pebble diameter and inlet velocity. Characteristics of the flow domain such as volume averaged porosity, axial porosity, and radial porosity were studied and compared with correlations available in the literature. Friction factors from the DNS results for all Reynolds numbers were compared with correlations in the literature. The first- and second-order statistics show good agreement with the available experimental data. Turbulence length scales were analyzed in the flow. Reynolds stress anisotropy was characterized by utilizing invariant analysis. Overall, the results of the analysis in this study provide deeper understanding of the flow behavior and the effect of the wall in packed beds.

Yildiz, Mustafa Alper↗

Why does cyber deterrence fail and when might it succeed? A framework for cyber scenario analysis

Through cyberattacks on information technology and digital communications systems, antagonists have increasingly been able to alter the strategic balance in their favor without provoking serious consequences. Conflict within and through the cyber domain is inherently different from conflict in other domains that house our critical systems. These differences result in new challenges for defending and creating resilient systems, and for deterring those who would wish to disrupt or destroy them. The purpose of this paper is to further examine the question of whether or not deterrence can be an effective strategy in cyber conflict, given our broad and varied interests in cyberspace. We define deterrence broadly as the creation of conditions that dissuade antagonists from taking unwanted actions because they believe that they will incur unacceptably high costs and/or receive insufficient benefits from taking that action. Deterrence may or may not be the most credible or effective strategy for achieving our desired end states in cybersecurity. Regardless of the answer here, however, it is important to consider why deterrence strategies might succeed under certain conditions, and to understand why deterrence is not effective within the myriad contexts that it appears fail. Deterrence remains a key component of U.S. cyber strategy, but there is little detail on how to operationalize or implement this policy, how to bring a whole-of-government and whole-of- private-sector approach to cyber deterrence, which types of antagonists can or should be deterred, and in which contexts. Moreover, discussion about how nations can and should respond to significant cyber incidents largely centers around whether or not the incident constitutes a "use of force," which would justify certain types of responses according to international law. However, we believe the "use of force" threshold is inadequate to describe the myriad interests and objectives of actors in cyberspace, both attackers and defenders. In this paper, we propose an approach to further examine if deterrence is an effective strategy and under which conditions. Our approach includes systematic analysis of cyber incident scenarios using a framework to evaluate the effectiveness of various activities in influencing antagonist behavior. While we only examine a single scenario for this paper, we propose that additional work is needed to more fully understand how various alternative thresholds constrain or unleash options for actors to influence one another's behavior in the cyber domain.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Carbon Capture Multidisciplinary Simulation CenterTrilab Support Team Fall Meeting 2018 Report

The TST continues to be very impressed with the quality of work presented and the rapid progress made by the CCMSC on a highly complex multiphysics problem domain. The Center is gathering increasing expertise and experience in multiple areas likely to be of broad interest to DOE and the greater HPC community, particularly in the areas of programming models and DSLs, I/O, V&V/UQ, and visualization/data analytics. This year in particular saw very impressive results in their task graph algorithms, strong and weak scaling of their overall code, and sophistication of their physics models and V/UQ analysis and approach. The team was particularly impressed with the depth of engagement and quality of discussion at the V/UQ deep dive. There are very few organizations outside of NNSA doing multiphysics simulation at this level of accuracy, efficiency, scale and sophistication and DOE would be well-advised to actively work to maintain a close collaborative relationship with this team after the completion of the PSAAP II program if at all possible.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

The Statistical Consulting Center for Astronomy (SCCA)

The process by which raw astronomical data acquisition is transformed into scientifically meaningful results and interpretation typically involves many statistical steps. Traditional astronomy limits itself to a narrow range of old and familiar statistical methods: means and standard deviations; least-squares methods like chi(sup 2) minimization; and simple nonparametric procedures such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. These tools are often inadequate for the complex problems and datasets under investigations, and recent years have witnessed an increased usage of maximum-likelihood, survival analysis, multivariate analysis, wavelet and advanced time-series methods. The Statistical Consulting Center for Astronomy (SCCA) assisted astronomers with the use of sophisticated tools, and to match these tools with specific problems. The SCCA operated with two professors of statistics and a professor of astronomy working together. Questions were received by e-mail, and were discussed in detail with the questioner. Summaries of those questions and answers leading to new approaches were posted on the Web (www.state.psu.edu/ mga/SCCA). In addition to serving individual astronomers, the SCCA established a Web site for general use that provides hypertext links to selected on-line public-domain statistical software and services. The StatCodes site (www.astro.psu.edu/statcodes) provides over 200 links in the areas of: Bayesian statistics; censored and truncated data; correlation and regression, density estimation and smoothing, general statistics packages and information; image analysis; interactive Web tools; multivariate analysis; multivariate clustering and classification; nonparametric analysis; software written by astronomers; spatial statistics; statistical distributions; time series analysis; and visualization tools. StatCodes has received a remarkable high and constant hit rate of 250 hits/week (over 10,000/year) since its inception in mid-1997. It is of interest to scientists both within and outside of astronomy. The most popular sections are multivariate techniques, image analysis, and time series analysis. Hundreds of copies of the ASURV, SLOPES and CENS-TAU codes developed by SCCA scientists were also downloaded from the StatCodes site. In addition to formal SCCA duties, SCCA scientists continued a variety of related activities in astrostatistics, including refereeing of statistically oriented papers submitted to the Astrophysical Journal, talks in meetings including Feigelson's talk to science journalists entitled "The reemergence of astrostatistics" at the American Association for the Advancement of Science meeting, and published papers of astrostatistical content.

Akritas, Michael↗