Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Yield Modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Integrating crop growth models with remote sensing for predicting biomass yield of sorghum

Abstract Plant phenotypes are often descriptive, rather than predictive of crop performance. As a result, extensive testing is required in plant breeding programmes to develop varieties aimed at performance in the target environments. Crop models can improve this testing regime by providing a predictive framework to (i) augment field phenotyping data and derive hard-to-measure phenotypes and (ii) estimate performance across geographical regions using historical weather data. The goal of this study was to parameterize the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) crop growth models with remote-sensing and ground-reference data to predict variation in phenology and yield-related traits in 18 commercial grain and biomass sorghum hybrids. Genotype parameters for each hybrid were estimated using remote-sensing measurements combined with manual phenotyping in West Lafayette, IN, in 2018. The models were validated in hybrid performance trials in two additional seasons at that site and against yield trials conducted in Bushland, TX, between 2001 and 2018. These trials demonstrated that (i) maximum plant height, final dry biomass and radiation use efficiency (RUE) of photoperiod-sensitive and -insensitive forage sorghum hybrids tended to be higher than observed in grain sorghum, (ii) photoperiod-sensitive sorghum hybrids exhibited greater biomass production in longer growing environments and (iii) the parameterized and validated models perform well in above-ground biomass simulations across years and locations. Crop growth models that integrate remote-sensing data offer an efficient approach to parameterize larger plant breeding populations.

Yang, Kai-Wei↗
DOE OSTI2020

Chromium Nucleosynthesis and Silicon–Carbon Shell Mergers in Massive Stars

In this work, we analyze the production of the element Cr in galactic chemical evolution (GCE) models using the NuGrid nucleosynthesis yields set. We show that the unusually large [Cr/Fe] abundance at [Fe/H] ≈ 0 reported by previous studies using those yields and predicted by our Milky Way model originates from the merging of convective Si-burning and C-burning shells in a 20 ${M}_{\odot }$ model at metallicity Z = 0.01, about an hour before the star explodes. This merger mixes the incomplete burning material in the Si shell, including 51 V and 52 Cr, out to the edge of the carbon/oxygen (CO) core. The adopted supernova model ejects the outer 2 ${M}_{\odot }$ of the CO core, which includes a significant fraction of the Cr-rich material. When including this 20 M⊙ model at Z = 0.01 in the yields interpolation scheme of our GCE model for stars between 15 and 25 ${M}_{\odot }$, we overestimate [Cr/Fe] by an order of magnitude at [Fe/H] ≈ 0 relative to observations in the Galactic disk. This raises a number of questions regarding the occurrence of Si–C shell mergers in nature, the accuracy of different simulation approaches, and the impact of such mergers on the presupernova structure and explosion dynamics. According to the conditions in this 1D stellar model, the substantial penetration of C-shell material into the Si shell could launch a convective–reactive global oscillation if a merger does take place. In any case, GCE provides stringent constraints on the outcome of this stellar evolution phase.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Forecasting Multi-Wave Epidemics Through Bayesian Inference

We present a simple, near-real-time Bayesian method to infer and forecast a multiwave outbreak, and demonstrate it on the COVID-19 pandemic. The approach uses timely epidemiological data that has been widely available for COVID-19. It provides short-term forecasts of the outbreak’s evolution, which can then be used for medical resource planning. The method postulates one- and multiwave infection models, which are convolved with the incubation-period distribution to yield competing disease models. The disease models’ parameters are estimated via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling and information-theoretic criteria are used to select between them for use in forecasting. The method is demonstrated on two- and three-wave COVID-19 outbreaks in California, New Mexico and Florida, as observed during Summer-Winter 2020. We find that the method is robust to noise, provides useful forecasts (along with uncertainty bounds) and that it reliably detected when the initial single-wave COVID-19 outbreaks transformed into successive surges as containment efforts in these states failed by the end of Spring 2020.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ultra-high Bandwidth, Ultra-high Dynamic Range X-Ray Shock Characterization via Photonic Integrated Circuit

Nuclear weapon component assessment tests at the Z Machine rely on accurate X-ray yield measurements for model validation, design and analysis of component survivability, and source optimization. Yield measurement devices currently used do not provide the requisite certainty to enable accurate and efficient data analysis of test results, which leads to an increase in Z-shots required for evaluation, longer device development times, and higher operation costs. Additionally, current X-ray flux detectors lack high temporal resolution at the tails. Similarly, shock measurement techniques used for component assessment often lack the ability to spatially resolve wave behavior thereby limiting the ability to measure shock propagation dynamics needed to design the next generation of ND components. Here we present the development of a photonic micro-calorimeter and shock sensor consisting of meter-long waveguide spirals that are optomechanically coupled to X-ray absorbing layers to characterize yield and shock propagation at nanosecond timescales.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Airborne hyperspectral imaging of nitrogen deficiency on crop traits and yield of maize by machine learning and radiative transfer modeling

Nitrogen is an essential nutrient that directly affects plant photosynthesis, crop yield, and biomass production for bioenergy crops, but excessive application of nitrogen fertilizers can cause environmental degradation. To achieve sustainable nitrogen fertilizer management for precision agriculture, there is an urgent need for nondestructive and high spatial resolution monitoring of crop nitrogen and its allocation to photosynthetic proteins as that changes over time. Here, we used visible to shortwave infrared (400–2400 nm) airborne hyperspectral imaging with high spatial (0.5 m) and spectral (3–5 nm) resolutions to accurately estimate critical crop traits, i.e., nitrogen, chlorophyll, and photosynthetic capacity (CO 2 -saturated photosynthesis rate, V max,27 ), at leaf and canopy scales, and to assess nitrogen deficiency on crop yield. We conducted three airborne campaigns over a maize (Zea mays L.) field during the growing season of 2019. Physically based soil-canopy Radiative Transfer Modeling (RTM) and data-driven approaches i.e. Partial-Least Squares Regression (PLSR) were used to retrieve crop traits from hyperspectral reflectance, with ground truth of leaf nitrogen, chlorophyll, V max,27 , Leaf Area Index (LAI), and harvested grain yield. To improve computational efficiency of RTMs, Random Forest (RF) was used to mimic RTM simulations to generate machine learning surrogate models RTM-RF. The results show that prior knowledge of soil background and leaf angle distribution can significantly reduce the ill-posed RTM retrieval. RTM-RF achieved a high accuracy to predict leaf chlorophyll content (R 2 = 0.73) and LAI (R 2 = 0.75). Meanwhile, PLSR exhibited better accuracy to predict leaf chlorophyll content (R 2 = 0.79), nitrogen concentration (R 2 = 0.83), nitrogen content (R 2 = 0.77), and V max,27 (R 2 = 0.69) but required measured traits for model training. We also found that canopy structure signals can enhance the use of spectral data to predict nitrogen related photosynthetic traits, as combining RTM-RF LAI and PLSR leaf traits well predicted canopy-level traits (leaf traits × LAI) including canopy chlorophyll (R 2 = 0.80), nitrogen (R 2 = 0.85) and V max,27 (R 2 = 0.82). Compared to leaf traits, we further found that canopy-level photosynthetic traits, particularly canopy V max,27 , have higher correlation with maize grain yield. This study highlights the potential for synergistic use of process-based and data-driven approaches of hyperspectral imaging to quantify crop traits that facilitate precision agricultural management to secure food and bioenergy production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

How macroscopic limits on neutron-star baryon loss yield microscopic limits on non-standard-model baryon decay

We investigate how our baryon-loss limits from anomalous binary-pulsar period lengthening can be interpreted microscopically to yield specific constraints on the particle physics of baryon number violation within a neutron star. We focus on the possibility of anomalous baryon disappearance via dark baryon processes and on scenarios in which the produced dark-sector particles do not survive to influence the response of the star to baryon-number-violating effects. We flesh out the conditions for which this may occur, as well as other key assumptions. We then turn to the analysis of particle processes in the dense nuclear medium found at the core of a neutron star, employing the techniques of relativistic mean-field theory. Using our study of in-medium effects and limits on macroscopic baryon number violation, we extract limits on in-vacuum baryon-number-violating processes, and we determine them for various equations of state. We conclude by noting the implications of our results for models of dark-sector-enabled baryogenesis. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Extreme sparsification of physics-augmented neural networks for interpretable model discovery in mechanics

Data-driven constitutive modeling with neural networks has received increased interest in recent years due to its ability to easily incorporate physical and mechanistic constraints and to overcome the challenging and time-consuming task of formulating phenomenological constitutive laws that can accurately capture the observed material response. However, even though neural network-based constitutive laws have been shown to generalize proficiently, the generated representations are not easily interpretable due to their high number of trainable parameters. Sparse regression approaches exist that allow for obtaining interpretable expressions, but the user is tasked with creating a library of model forms which by construction limits their expressiveness to the functional forms provided in the libraries. Here, in this work, we propose to train regularized physics-augmented neural network-based constitutive models utilizing a smoothed version of $L^0$-regularization. This aims to maintain the trustworthiness inherited by the physical constraints, but also enables interpretability which has not been possible thus far on any type of machine learning-based constitutive model where model forms were not assumed a priori but were actually discovered. During the training process, the network simultaneously fits the training data and penalizes the number of active parameters, while also ensuring constitutive constraints such as thermodynamic consistency. We show that the method can reliably obtain interpretable and trustworthy constitutive models for compressible and incompressible hyperelasticity, yield functions, and hardening models for elastoplasticity, using synthetic and experimental data. This work aims to set a new paradigm for interpretable machine learning models in the broad area of solid mechanics where low and limited data is available along with prior knowledge of physical constraints that the learned maps need to obey. This paradigm can potentially be extended to a broader spectrum of scientific exploration.

Data-driven constitutive models↗
DOE OSTI2022

MatPhase: Material phase prediction for Li-ion Battery Reconstruction using Hierarchical Curriculum Learning

Li-ion Batteries (LIB), one of the most efficient energy storage devices, are used extensively in many industrial applications. These batteries consist of electrodes that are put together with heterogeneous material compositions. Imaging data of these battery electrodes obtained from X-ray tomography can explain the distribution of material constituents and allow reconstructions to study electron transport pathways. Such reconstructions of material constituents help quantify various associated properties of electrodes (e.g., volume-specific surface area, porosity) which determine the performance of batteries. These images often suffer from low image contrast between multiple material constituents, hence making it difficult for humans to distinguish and characterize these constituents through visual inspection. A minor error in detecting distributions of the material constituents can lead to magnified errors in the calculated parameters of material properties (e.g., porosity). We present MatPhase, a novel hierarchical curriculum learning technique to address the complex task of estimating material constituent distribution in battery electrodes. MatPhase comprises three modules: (i) an uncertainty-aware global model trained to yield inferences conditioned upon global knowledge of material distribution, (ii) a local model to capture relatively more fine-grained (local) distributional signals, (iii) an aggregator model to appropriately fuse the local and global effects towards obtaining the final distribution. On average, MatPhase improves prediction up to 8.5% relative to other sophisticated modeling pipelines and state-of-the-arts (SOTA) object detection models employed in the performance comparison.

Tabassum, Anika↗
DOE OSTI2021

The development of yield-based sooting tendency measurements and modeling to enable advanced combustion fuels

This project produced clear evidence that biofuels can reduce particulate emissions from road vehicles compared with petroleum-derived fuels. It also produced fundamental knowledge that can be used to select fuel compositions and engine designs that will maximize this benefit. This information has been disseminated through more than 20 peer-reviewed publications, more than 30 conference presentations, and 5 freely available internet databases and web tools. This project also provided educational opportunities to 17 students at the high school, undergraduate, and graduate levels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Kinetic modelling of an environmentally friendly carbamazepine synthesis via urea and iminostilbene in batch and continuous processes

Accurate kinetic models for reaction systems allow for improved process understanding and greater quality control, which is particularly beneficial as the pharmaceutical industry shifts from batch to continuous manufacturing (CM). In this work, a first principles kinetic model has been developed for the synthesis of carbamazepine (CBZ) from iminostilbene and urea, starting in a batch reactor and subsequently in a continuous flow reactor. An eco-friendly reaction pathway using urea was selected to avoid the toxic reagents that are typically used for synthesis of CBZ. The kinetic parameters determined from batch reactions were utilized in a MATLAB based kinetic model to simulate the yield for the continuous process. Overall, good agreement between the model prediction and corresponding experimental values was observed for the batch and continuous reaction systems within the full factorial design space. However, the model slightly overpredicted the yield of the continuous reaction system for higher conversion values (>60%) since it did not account for the reverse reaction that can occur at the studied reaction conditions. Here, the use of broken order kinetics was compared with whole number orders, and it was determined that the whole number orders resulted in better agreement at all conversion values for the continuous system.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying mean, variability, and uncertainty in indoor radon exposure in Pennsylvania using random forest and quantile regression forest models

Radon is a naturally occurring radioactive gas that poses a serious health risk as the primary cause of lung cancer in non-smokers. Despite the well-known adverse association with health outcomes, current radon exposure assessments are limited to county-level or average-level estimates, which fail to capture regional variability. This study uses Machine Learning models, including Random Forest (RF) and Quantile Regression Forest (QRF), to estimate the indoor radon concentrations at the ZCTA (Zip code tabulation area)-level and characterize uncertainties in model estimates. Incorporating geological, meteorological, and building-specific data, the models aim to improve radon risk assessment by capturing mean exposure, variability, and extreme concentration levels. Processed radon test data (n = 718,111) were analyzed using average, variability, and quantile prediction methods. Models that estimate the average radon exposure at the ZCTA-level can yield promising model-fit results, but they do not capture the underlying variability of indoor radon exposure within a ZCTA. We utilize volatility analyses to identify characteristics indicative of high variability of indoor radon exposure. We also show that a QRF model can be used to estimate upper quantiles of residential radon exposure, thereby uncovering localized areas of elevated exposure that were not apparent in mean estimates. The results highlighted the need for a deep characterization of exposure risk and show that regions with moderate average exposure levels could still harbor extreme outliers with implications for evaluating health risks. Utilizing multiple radon exposure models allows for a deeper characterization of radon risk within a geographic area and can better identify high-risk areas. The results from this study provide a foundation for developing mitigation strategies and examining associations between radon exposure and health outcomes at fine scales. Future research should extend the geographic scope and incorporate additional environmental risk factors to establish a comprehensive framework for risk assessment.

Lee, Heechan [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2021

Statistically bias-corrected and downscaled climate models underestimate the adverse effects of extreme heat on U.S. maize yields

Abstract Efforts to understand and quantify how a changing climate can impact agriculture often rely on bias-corrected and downscaled climate information, making it important to quantify potential biases of this approach. Here, we use a multi-model ensemble of statistically bias-corrected and downscaled climate models, as well as the corresponding parent models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), to drive a statistical panel model of U.S. maize yields that incorporates season-wide measures of temperature and precipitation. We analyze uncertainty in annual yield hindcasts, finding that the CMIP5 models considerably overestimate historical yield variability while the bias-corrected and downscaled versions underestimate the largest weather-induced yield declines. We also find large differences in projected yields and other decision-relevant metrics throughout this century, leaving stakeholders with modeling choices that require navigating trade-offs in resolution, historical accuracy, and projection confidence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Atomic-scale homogeneous plastic flow beyond near-theoretical yield stress in a metallic glass

Abstract The onset of yielding and the related atomic-scale plastic flow behavior of bulk metallic glasses at room temperature have not been fully understood due to the difficulty in performing the atomic-scale plastic deformation experiments needed to gain direct insight into the underlying fundamental deformation mechanisms. Here we overcome these limitations by combining a unique sample preparation method with atomic force microscopy-based indentation, which allows study of the yield stress, onset of yielding, and atomic-scale plastic flow of a platinum-based bulk metallic glass in volumes containing as little as approximately 1000 atoms. Yield stresses markedly higher than in conventional nanoindentation testing were observed, surpassing predictions from current models that relate yield stress to tested volumes; subsequent flow was then established to be homogeneous without exhibiting collective shear localization or loading rate dependence. Overall, variations in glass properties due to fluctuations of free volume are found to be much smaller than previously suggested.

Yu, Jiaxin↗
DOE OSTI2024

AmpSuite

Seismic amplitudes offer vital information about explosion source characteristics, including discrimination and yield estimation. To take advantage of this, we developed an interactive Python package to measure, control data quality, generate broad area propagation models and perform discrimination and estimate yield. Propagation models are essential in support of transportable yield and broad area discrimination. The key benefit of this package will be its ability to continuously integrate data and new techniques. The AmpSuite framework will provide standardized, repeatable, and accurate model generation and characterization routines. The capability is crucial for monitoring agencies tasked with rapid and high-quality seismic event characterization. The AmpSuite software includes a series of independent modules to perform: • Direct Phase Amplitude Measurement and Storage • Coda Envelope Measurement and Storage • Data Quality Control • New Propagation Model Developments • Seismic Discrimination and Analysis • Yield Estimation and supporting utility software. The AmpSuite software provides comprehensive solutions for monitoring agencies seeking to optimize model generation and event analysis within a contemporary Python framework. Stakeholders (AFTAC) have begun to move towards the Python language for scientific analysis as a new workforce emerges.

Alfaro, Richard↗
DOE OSTI2025

Strong Hilbert space fragmentation and fractons from subsystem and higher-form symmetries

Here, we introduce a route to Hilbert space fragmentation in high dimensions leveraging the group-word formalism. We show that taking strongly fragmented models in one dimension and “lifting” to higher dimensions using subsystem symmetries can yield strongly fragmented dynamics in higher dimensions, with subdimensional (e.g., lineonic) excitations. This provides a route to higher-dimensional strong fragmentation, and also a route to fractonic behavior. Meanwhile, lifting one-dimensional fragmented models to higher dimensions using higher-form symmetries yields models with topologically robust fragmentation. In three or more spatial dimensions, one can also “mix and match” subsystem and higher-form symmetries, leading to canonical fracton models such as X cube. We speculate that this approach could also yield a route to non-Abelian fractons. These constructions unify a number of phenomena that have been discussed in the literature, as well as furnishing models with unique properties.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improved Parametric Models for Explosion Pressure Signals Derived From Large Datasets

Accurate recording and characterization of explosion-induced pressure signals are key components of the forensic analysis of explosion events in the atmosphere. Parametric overpressure models based on several key waveform features (peak overpressure, positive pulse duration, and impulse) are widely used to estimate explosion energy in terms of trinitrotoluene equivalent yield. However, those models are often developed by a limited dataset, including only a few events or recordings at relatively short propagation distances. Here, we develop empirical waveform-parameter models based on a regression analysis of a large set of data curated from four chemical explosion experiments including 16 detonations. We measured peak overpressure and impulse for positive and negative phases from 1000 pressure signals recorded at local ranges (<20 km) with scaled distance up to 8000 m/kg 1/3 . Additionally, the measured waveform parameters showed large variation with respect to observing distances indicating the effects of atmospheric propagation. In this study, a second-order polynomial model was used in a least-squares regression to account for those propagation effects and to improve data fitting. In addition to model parameters for waveform features, we also determined range-dependent model uncertainties based on data variance. The model uncertainty represents the prediction error of our models and can be critical to evaluating the uncertainty of yield estimate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Critical statistical assessment of data in metal additive manufacturing

Obtaining high quality data reflecting the relationships between the additive manufacturing (AM) process parameters, material microstructure and mechanical properties is crucial for the use of machine learning in AM. A database of over 4,000 data entries of metal AM was created thanks to a large number of literature studies on key process parameters and indicators of build quality. Meta-analysis reveals critical biases in the literature. Firstly, majority of studies report only high quality builds, these imbalances in reporting result in weak correlation between process parameters, properties and consolidation, limiting the ability of machine learning models to generalize beyond optimized conditions. Nevertheless, the trained models accurately predict yield strength ($R^2 = 0.85$), suggesting that certain process–property relationships are effectively captured within these models. Secondly, quantitative microstructural data are largely absent, limiting the learning of the microstructure-mechanical properties relationships. Finally, current process window identification is based largely on the consolidation, despite significant uncertainty in its measurement. It is important to identify the process map on the basis of not only the consolidation, but also mechanical behaviour under loading. Such a identification shows that 316 L and Inconel have much larger process map (i.e. highly printable) in comparison to the AlSi10Mg and Ti6Al4V.

Additive manufacturing↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mechanistic Study of 1,2-Dichloroethane Hydrodechlorination on Cu-Rich Pt–Cu Alloys: Combining Reaction Kinetics Experiments with DFT Calculations and Microkinetic Modeling

Cu-rich Pt–Cu bimetallic catalysts are among the most promising candidates for actively catalyzing the hydrodechlorination of 1,2-dichloroethane (1,2-DCA) toward ethylene production. Combining reaction kinetics experiments with density functional theory (DFT) calculations and mean-field microkinetic modeling, we present a systematic mechanistic study for 1,2-DCA hydrodechlorination on Cu-rich Pt–Cu alloy catalysts. Our DFT (PBE+(TS+SCS)) results suggest that increasing Cu content in the Pt–Cu alloy destabilizes C 2 -species adsorption while stabilizing the binding of atomic chlorine. The reaction energetics of all the elementary steps in the 1,2-DCA reaction network were calculated on a Pt 1 Cu 3 (111) model surface. The DFT results were then used to construct a microkinetic model, and the model-predicted reaction rates were compared with our reaction kinetics experimental results on a Cu-rich SiO 2 -supported Pt–Cu alloy catalyst through a parameter estimation procedure. Both the reaction kinetics experiments and the microkinetic model after parameter adjustments yielded 100% selectivity to ethylene. The microkinetic model pointed to a reaction pathway involving two sequential chlorine-removal steps on the Pt–Cu alloy catalyst, a mechanism distinct from the one previously identified on pure Pt/SiO 2 catalysts, which involved an initial hydrogen-removal step. Adjustments to the DFT-derived parameters indicate the possible formation of chlorine-induced Cu-enriched surface sites during 1,2-DCA hydrodechlorination conditions, sites that are more active than those encountered in the bulk Pt 1 Cu 3 (111) alloy surface. Furthermore, our study offers valuable initial insights on the 1,2-DCA hydrodechlorination reaction mechanism and the nature of the active sites on PtCu bimetallic catalysts.

1,2-Dichloroethane↗