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NASA NTRS1988

Medium range lagged average forecasts

In this work, the application of the lagged average forecasting (LAF) technique to operational forecasts of the ECMWF is reported. The ECMWF data consist of two 100-day samples of 10-day forecasts of 500-mb geopotential height for winter 1980/81 and summer 1981. the LAF ensemble includes the latest operational forecast, and also forecast for the same verification time started one or more days earlier than the latest one. The focus is on the following two issues: (1) does ensemble averaging improve forecast skill and (2) is the dispersion of the ensemble useful in predicting forecast skill. The LAF technique was used to produce 3, 5, 7, 8, and 9 day forecasts of the 500-mb height field. The results show that the statistically filtered LAF is a marked improvment upon the operational forecast after 5 days. It is found that on a global scale, forecast skill is weakly correlated with the dispersion of the ensemble, as measured by the rms difference between the operational forecast and the statistically filtered LAF.

Dalcher, Amnon↗
NASA NTRS1987

Analysis of adaptive identifiers in the presence of unmodelled dynamics: Averaging and tuned parameters

The behavior of a standard identifier is analyzed for the case in which the plant contains additional dynamics, called unmodeled dynamics, which invalidate the known order assumption. An input richness condition is obtained that does not depend on the order of the unmmodeled dynamics to guarantee persistency of excitation (PE) of the regressor. It is shown that the PE condition leads to a BIBO stability property for the identifier. The method of averaging is used to define formally the notion of tuned parameters as the equilibrium of the identifier-averaged system. It is shown that the tuned parameters always exist and that the actual parameters converge to some neighborhood of the tuned parameters. An explicit expression is derived to calculate and interpret them as the fixed parameter values that minimize the mean-squared output error.

Mason, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Average low-latitude meridional electric fields from DE 2 during solar maximum

The average meridional electric field (zonal ion flow) patterns in the region between +/- 30 deg magnetic latitude were obtained by analyzing the electric field data taken by the Vector Electric Field Instrument aboard the DE 2 spacecraft during solar maximum conditions. The average data set displayed a rapid increase of the downward meridional electric field with local time near 1800 MLT; there was a secondary nighttime maximum of this electric field component, observed post midnight, with the crossover to upward electric fields (westward ion flow) occurring between 0400 and 0500 MLT. A sharp return to near zero was observed between 1200 and 1300. The zonal ion drift was found to be approximately symmetric with respect to the geomagnetic equator. These results are compared with results of the DE-2 neutral wind measurements and with results obtained from radar measurements.

Maynard, N. C.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Differential absorption lidar signal averaging

This paper presents experimental results using an atmospheric backscatter dual CO2 laser DIAL. It is shown that DIAL signals can be averaged to obtain an N exp -1/2 dependence decrease in the standard deviation of the ratio of backscattered returns from two lasers, where N is the number of DIAL signals averaged, and that such a lidar system can make measurements of gas concentrations with a precision of 0.7 percent in absorptance over 75 m in a short measurement time when the signal strength is high. Factors that eventually limit the rate of improvement in the SNR, such as changes in the ratio of the absorption and/or backscatter at the two laser frequencies and background noise, are discussed. In addition, it is noted that DIAL measurements made using hard-target backscatter often show departures from N exp -1/2 dependence improvement in the standard deviation because they are further limited by the combined effects of atmospheric turbulence and speckle (since the relative reproducibility of the speckle pattern on the receiver gives rise to correlations of the lidar signals).

Grant, William B.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Multichannel boxcar-averaged measurements of plasma parameters made using a digital storage scope

A technique for rapidly acquiring time-resolved, ensemble-averaged Langmuir probe characteristics is presented. Fifty probe characteristics are acquired using a digital storage oscilloscope in the time it would take to acquire a one-probe characteristic using a single-channel boxcar averager. A single Langmuir probe is used, and the probe bias is swept quite slowly, so that the probe is always in equilibrium with the plasma. A method for the automatic extraction of electron temperature, electron density, and the plasma potential from the acquired probe characteristics is described. This technique for acquisition and analysis is applied to the study of plasma decay and the effects of rf excitation in a pulsed, strongly magnetized plasma.

Sheridan, T. E.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Modelling and designing digital control systems with averaged measurements

An account is given of the control systems engineering methods applicable to the design of digital feedback controllers for aerospace deterministic systems in which the output, rather than being an instantaneous measure of the system at the sampling instants, instead represents an average measure of the system over the time interval between samples. The averaging effect can be included during the modeling of the plant, thereby obviating the iteration of design/simulation phases.

Polites, Michael E.↗
NASA NTRS1988

An averaging analysis of discrete-time indirect adaptive control

An averaging analysis of indirect, discrete-time, adaptive control systems is presented. The analysis results in a signal-dependent stability condition and accounts for unmodeled plant dynamics as well as exogenous disturbances. This analysis is applied to two discrete-time adaptive algorithms: an unnormalized gradient algorithm and a recursive least-squares (RLS) algorithm with resetting. Since linearization and averaging are used for the gradient analysis, a local stability result valid for small adaptation gains is found. For RLS with resetting, the assumption is that there is a long time between resets. The results for the two algorithms are virtually identical, emphasizing their similarities in adaptive control.

Phillips, Stephen M.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Hadley circulations for zonally averaged heating centered off the equator

Consistent with observations, it is found that moving peak heating even 2 deg off the equator leads to profound asymmetries in the Hadley circulation, with the winter cell amplifying greatly and the summer cell becoming negligible. It is found that the annually averaged Hadley circulation is much larger than the circulation forced by the annually averaged heating.

Lindzen, Richard S.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Averaging Sampled Sensor Outputs To Detect Failures

Fluctuating signals smoothed by taking consecutive averages. Sampling-and-averaging technique processes noisy or otherwise erratic signals from number of sensors to obtain indications of failures in complicated system containing sensors. Used under both transient and steady-state conditions. Useful in monitoring automotive engines, chemical-processing plants, powerplants, and other systems in which outputs of sensors contain noise or other fluctuations in measured quantities.

Panossian, Hagop V.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Interpretation and modeling of the averaged equations for a fluid-solid flow

A self-consistent derivation of the conservation laws is given for flows of a fluid-solid mixture. A unified analytical framework for obtaining constitutive relations is provided. This analysis uses a control volume/control surface approach that is widely used in fluid mechanics. All terms in the governing equations and the constitutive relations are written in terms of the mass-weighted averages except solid concentration. It is believed that the mass-weighted average is the natural bridge between micromechanics and constitutive relations. The derived momentum equations contain terms that differ from all existing models except that of Prosperetti and Jones (1984). However, their assumptions are not needed here. Special attention is given to the solid phase pressure. The physical basis of the previously assumed form for this pressure (Givler 1987) becomes clear. A number of related phenomena are also discussed. These include the anti-diffusion and anisotropic normal stresses. The energy equations are also different from existing models.

Shen, Hayley H.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Two-component phase-averaged turbulence statistics downstream of a rotating spoked-wheel wake generator

Flow-field measurements of unsteady turbulent flow downstream of a rotating spoked-wheel wake generator were performed in a short-duration light-piston tunnel, and the instantaneous-velocity data were phase averaged based on a signal synchronized with the bar-passing frequency. Mean axial velocities were found to agree well with those obtained from measurements behind a stationary cylinder and to be independent of both Reynolds and bar-passing Strouhal numbers. Reynolds stresses were found to be consistent with related cylinder-wake measurements, but were significantly higher than corresponding measurements obtained in large-scale research turbomachines. Phase-averaged triple velocity correlations were calculated from the digital velocity records, revealing the sign and the magnitude of skewness in the velocity probability density distributions for the two components.

O'Brien, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Average properties of bipolar magnetic regions during sunspot cycle 21

The statistical properties of some 2700 bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) with magnetic fluxes equal to or greater than 3 x 10 to the 20th Mx, which erupted during 1976-1986, are examined. The analysis shows the following: (1) the average flux per BMR declined between 1977 and 1985; (2) the average tilts of BMRs relative to the east-west line increase toward higher latitudes; (3) weaker BMRs had larger root-mean-square tilt angles than stronger BMRs at all latitudes; and (4) over the interval 1976-1986, BMRs with their leading poles equatorward of their trailing poles contributed a total of 4 times as much flux as BMRs with inverted tilts, but the relative amount of flux contributed by BMRs with inverted or zero tilts increased as the sunspot cycle progressed.

Wang, Y.-M.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Satellite observed long-term averaged seasonal and spatial ozone variations in the stratosphere

Nine years of Nimbus-7 SBUV ozone mixing ratio data (October 1978-September 1987) have been used to analyze the distributions of the long-term average annual and semiannual ozone oscillations in the lower, middle, and upper stratosphere over the region 65 deg S to 65 deg N. It is shown that the derived harmonics are consistent with the result of earlier investigations based on limited sets of data. Year-to-year changes of amplitudes of the annual and semiannual variations are generally small except in the tropical midstratosphere (due to the effect of El Chichon) and the southern subpolar upper stratosphere. Analyses are also presented to show the vertical and seasonal distribution of the zonal ozone variations. It is shown that, for the long-term averaged data, wave 1 is larger during winter than summer and in winter larger in the Northern than Southern Hemisphere. The importance of photochemical and thermal/dynamic processes in modifying the time and zonal variations is discussed.

Perliski, Lori M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

An analysis of the threshold method for measuring area-average rainfall

Experimental evidence shows that the area-average rain rate and the fractional area covered by rain rate exceeding a fixed threshold are highly correlated; that is, are highly linearly related. A precise theoretical explanation of this fact is given. The explanation is based on the observation that rain rate has a mixed distribution, one that is a mixture of a discrete distribution and a continuous distribution. Under a homogeneity assumption, the slope of the linear relationship depends only on the continuous part of the distribution and as such is found to be markedly immune to parameter changes. This is illustrated by certain slope surfaces obtained from three specific distributions. The threshold level can be chosen in an optimal way by minimizing a certain distance function defined over the threshold range. In general, the threshold level should be not too far from the mean rain rate conditional on rain. The so-called threshold method advocates measuring rainfall from fractional area exploiting the observed linear relationship of the later with the area average rain rate. The method is potentially useful for the estimation of rainfall from space via satellites.

Kedem, Benjamin↗
NASA NTRS1990

Time scales and variability of area-averaged tropical oceanic rainfall

A statistical analysis of time series of area-averaged rainfall over the oceans has been conducted around the diurnal time scale. The results of this analysis can be applied directly to the problem of establishing the magnitude of expected errors to be incurred in the estimation of monthly area-averaged rain rate from low orbiting satellites. Such statistics as the mean, standard deviation, integral time scale of background red noise, and spectral analyses were performed on time series of the GOES precipitation index taken at 3-hour intervals during the period spanning December 19, 1987 to March 31, 1988 over the central and eastern tropical Pacific. The analyses have been conducted on 2.5 x 2.5 deg and 5 x 5 deg grid boxes, separately. The study shows that rainfall measurements by a sun-synchronous satellite visiting a spot twice per day will include a bias due to the existence of the semidiurnal cycle in the SPCZ ranging from 5 to 10 percentage points. The bias in the ITCZ may be of the order of 5 percentage points.

Shin, Kyung-Sup↗
NASA NTRS1990

Average reflected power from a one-dimensional slab of discrete scatterers

Reflection from a one-dimensional random medium of discrete scatterers is considered. The discrete scattering medium is modeled by a Poisson impulse process with concentration lambda. By employing the Markov property of the Poisson impulse process, an exact functional integro-differential equation of the Kolmogorov-Feller type is found for the average reflected power. Approximate solutions to this equation are obtained by regular perturbation and two variable expansion techniques in the limit of small lambda. The regular perturbation results is valid for small slab thicknesses, while the two-variable result is uniformly valid for any thickness. The two-variable result shows that as the slab size becomes infinite all of the incident power is reflected on the average.

Saatchi, Sasan S.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Zonally averaged thermal balance and stability models for nitrogen polar caps on Triton

Voyager four-color imaging data of Triton are analyzed to calculate the bolometric hemispheric albedo as a function of latitude and longitude. Zonal averages of these data have been incorporated into a thermal balance model involving insolation, reradiation, and latent heat of sublimation of N2 ice for the surface. The current average bolometric albedo of Triton's polar caps is 0.8, implying an effective temperature of 34.2 K and a surface pressure of N2 of 1.6 microbar for unit emissivity. This pressure is an order of magnitude lower than the surface pressure of 18 microbar inferred from Voyager data (Broadfoot et al., 1989; Conrath et al., 1989), a discrepancy that can be reconciled if the emissivity of the N2 on Triton's surface is 0.66. The model predicts that Triton's surface north of 15 deg N latitude is experiencing deposition of N2 frosts, as are the bright portions of the south polar cap near the equator. This result explains why the south cap covers nearly the entire southern hemisphere of Triton.

Stansberry, John A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

The average tangential electric field at the noon magnetopause

Two hundred and five magnetopause passes of the ISEE 1 satellite through the magnetopause within 2 hrs of local noon during the time period 1977-1981 were examined in order to determine the relationship between the dawn-dusk tangential electric field at the magnetopause and the northward component of the magnetosheath magnetic field; the ratio of these quantities yields the speed of the plasma flow toward the magnetopause (i.e., the reconnection flow speed). The results indicate that, on the average, reconnection occurs at the subsolar magnetopause, and that the average reconnection flow speed of magnetosheath plasma toward the magnetopause is about 15 percent of the local Alfven speed.

Lindqvist, P.-A.↗