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NASA NTRS1994

Four years of global cirrus cloud statistics using HIRS

Trends in global upper-tropospheric transmissive cirrus cloud cover are beginning to emerge from a four-year cloud climatology using NOAA polar-orbiting High-Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS) multispectral data. Cloud occurrence, height, and effective emissivity are determined with the CO2 slicing technique on the four years of data (June 1989-May 1993). There is a global preponderance of transmissive high clouds, 42% on the average; about three-fourths of these are above 500 hPa and presumed to be cirrus. In the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a high frequency of cirrus (greater than 50%) is found at all times; a modest seasonal movement tracks the sun. Large seasonal changes in cloud cover occur over the oceans in the storm belts at midlatitudes; the concentrations of these clouds migrate north and south with the seasons following the progressions of the subtropical highs (anticyclones). More cirrus is found in the summer than in the winter in each hemisphere. A significant change in cirrus cloud cover occurs in 1991, the third year of the study. Cirrus observations increase from 35% to 43% of the data, a change of eight percentage points. Other cloud forms, opaque to terrestrial radiation, decerase by nearly the same amount. Most of the increase is thinner cirrus with infrared optical depths below 0.7. The increase in cirrus happens at the same time as the 1991-92 El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. The cirrus changes occur at the start of the ENSO and persist into 1993 in contrast to other climatic indicators that return to near pre-ENSO and volcanic levels in 1993.

Wylie, Donald P.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Numerical modeling and parametric study of a dual purpose underground thermal battery

We report integrating thermal energy storage with building energy systems can enable flexible building electric demands at buildings to help mitigate the mismatch between electricity supply and demand. A novel building heating and cooling system that integrates a dual-source heat pump with hybrid thermal storage named dual-purpose underground thermal battery (DPUTB) has been developed for reshaping building electric demands. The proposed DPUTB integrated geothermal heat pump system is an original innovation that enables Grid-interactive Energy Efficient buildings. This paper focuses on the study of the novel DPUTB. The DPUTB works as both a thermal storage tank (an inner tank) and a ground heat exchanger (an outer tank separated from the inner tank by the insulation material). High fidelity and computationally effective models are needed to predict the performance of the novel DPUTB. This study has developed a simplified dynamic model for the DPUTB according to heat transfer and energy conservation principles and validated it by using experimental data obtained from testing a small-scale DPUTB apparatus. A parametric study was conducted to identify a design that can achieve the target thermal storage performance of load shift and energy efficiency. The parametric study results show that the inner tank shell thermal conductivity and the phase change material's melting point are the two most influencing factors on the performance of the DPUTB. One single full-size DPUTB with the identified design could provide 1-ton cooling (3.51 kW) with the supply temperature lower than 11 °C for 4 hours in summer after being fully charged in 8 hours. The inner tank filled with phase change material is for cooling thermal storage as a latent tank in the design. However, its capacity can be as high as 60 MJ as a sensible water tank for heating storage in winter. In the future study, the DPUTB model will be incorporated into the dual-source heat pump system for evaluating the overall system performance of demand side management in the long term.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS1988

An investigation of new methods for estimating parameter sensitivities

Parameter sensitivity is defined as the estimation of changes in the modeling functions and the design variables due to small changes in the fixed parameters of the formulation. There are currently several methods for estimating parameter sensitivities requiring either difficult to obtain second order information, or do not return reliable estimates for the derivatives. Additionally, all the methods assume that the set of active constraints does not change in a neighborhood of the estimation point. If the active set does in fact change, than any extrapolations based on these derivatives may be in error. The objective here is to investigate more efficient new methods for estimating parameter sensitivities when the active set changes. The new method is based on the recursive quadratic programming (RQP) method and in conjunction a differencing formula to produce estimates of the sensitivities. This is compared to existing methods and is shown to be very competitive in terms of the number of function evaluations required. In terms of accuracy, the method is shown to be equivalent to a modified version of the Kuhn-Tucker method, where the Hessian of the Lagrangian is estimated using the BFS method employed by the RPQ algorithm. Inital testing on a test set with known sensitivities demonstrates that the method can accurately calculate the parameter sensitivity. To handle changes in the active set, a deflection algorithm is proposed for those cases where the new set of active constraints remains linearly independent. For those cases where dependencies occur, a directional derivative is proposed. A few simple examples are included for the algorithm, but extensive testing has not yet been performed.

Beltracchi, Todd J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Role of the ocean in climate changes

The present program aimed at the study of ocean climate change is prepared by a group of scientists from State Oceanographic Institute, Academy of Science of Russia, Academy of Science of Ukraine and Moscow State University. It appears to be a natural evolution of ideas and achievements that have been developed under national and international ocean research projects such as SECTIONS, WOCE, TOGA, JGOFS and others. The two primary goals are set in the program ROCC. (1) Quantitative description of the global interoceanic 'conveyor' and it's role in formation of the large scale anomalies in the North Atlantic. The objectives on the way to this goal are: to get the reliable estimates of year-to-year variations of heat and water exchange between the Atlantic Ocean and the atmosphere; to establish and understand the physics of long period variations in meridianal heat and fresh water transport (MHT and MFWT) in the Atlantic Ocean; to analyze the general mechanisms, that form the MHT and MFWT in low latitudes (Ekman flux), middle latitudes (western boundary currents) and high latitudes (deep convection) of the North Atlantic; to establish and to give quantitative description of the realization of global changes in SST, surface salinity, sea level and sea ice data. (2) Development of the observational system pointed at tracing the climate changes in the North Atlantic. This goal merges the following objectives: to find the proper sites that form the inter annual variations of MHT; to study the deep circulation in the 'key' points; to develop the circulation models reflecting the principle features of interoceanic circulation; and to define global and local response of the atmosphere circulation to large scale processes in the Atlantic Ocean.

Gulev, Sergey K.↗

NASA NTRS1990

The dynamics of orbital maneuvering: Design and evaluation of a visual display aid for human controllers

An interactive proximity operations planning system, which allows on-site planning of fuel-efficient, multi-burn maneuvers in a potential multi-spacecraft environment was developed and tested. Though this display system most directly assists planning by providing visual feedback to aid visualization of the trajectories and constraints, its most significant features include an inverse dynamics algorithm that removes control nonlinearities facing the operator and a trajectory planning technique that reduces the order of control and creates, through a geometric spread-sheet the illusion of an inertially stable environment. This synthetic environment provides the user with control of relevant static and dynamic properties of way-points during small orbital changes allowing independent solutions to the normally coupled problems of orbital maneuvering. An experiment was carried out in which experienced operators were required to plan a trajectory to retrieve an object accidently separated from a dual-keel space station. The time required to plan these maneuvers was found to be predicted by the direction of the insertion thrust and did not depend on the point of separation from the space station.

Ellis, Stephen R.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Scripting Module for the Satellite Orbit Analysis Program (SOAP)

This add-on module to the SOAP software can perform changes to simulation objects based on the occurrence of specific conditions. This allows the software to encompass simulation response of scheduled or physical events. Users can manipulate objects in the simulation environment under programmatic control. Inputs to the scripting module are Actions, Conditions, and the Script. Actions are arbitrary modifications to constructs such as Platform Objects (i.e. satellites), Sensor Objects (representing instruments or communication links), or Analysis Objects (user-defined logical or numeric variables). Examples of actions include changes to a satellite orbit ( v), changing a sensor-pointing direction, and the manipulation of a numerical expression. Conditions represent the circumstances under which Actions are performed and can be couched in If-Then-Else logic, like performing v at specific times or adding to the spacecraft power only when it is being illuminated by the Sun. The SOAP script represents the entire set of conditions being considered over a specific time interval. The output of the scripting module is a series of events, which are changes to objects at specific times. As the SOAP simulation clock runs forward, the scheduled events are performed. If the user sets the clock back in time, the events within that interval are automatically undone. This script offers an interface for defining scripts where the user does not have to remember the vocabulary of various keywords. Actions can be captured by employing the same user interface that is used to define the objects themselves. Conditions can be set to invoke Actions by selecting them from pull-down lists. Users define the script by selecting from the pool of defined conditions. Many space systems have to react to arbitrary events that can occur from scheduling or from the environment. For example, an instrument may cease to draw power when the area that it is tasked to observe is not in view. The contingency of the planetary body blocking the line of sight is a condition upon which the power being drawn is set to zero. It remains at zero until the observation objective is again in view. Computing the total power drawn by the instrument over a period of days or weeks can now take such factors into consideration. What makes the architecture especially powerful is that the scripting module can look ahead and behind in simulation time, and this temporal versatility can be leveraged in displays such as x-y plots. For example, a plot of a satellite s altitude as a function of time can take changes to the orbit into account.

Carnright, Robert↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Uniform Methods Project: Smart Thermostat Evaluation Protocol

A smart thermostat is an internet-connected device that controls home heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) equipment and can automatically adjust temperature set points to optimize performance and achieve energy savings. Smart thermostat features often include two way communication, occupancy detection (such as geofencing and occupancy sensors), schedule learning, and seasonal optimization algorithms. Smart thermostats can control most conventional HVAC systems, including central air conditioners, heat pumps, and forced air furnaces. Several types of residential utility programs offer smart thermostats as replacements measures. Working with smart thermostat vendors, utilities can offer separate optimization programs to produce energy savings beyond those achieved by installing a smart thermostat. From an evaluation perspective, smart thermostat programs have several noteworthy features. First, the energy savings from a smart thermostat may change over the life of the device. As a smart thermostat is connected to the internet, original equipment manufacturers can update the thermostat software to improve the thermostat's energy efficiency. Likewise, users can adjust the thermostat settings and schedules over time in response to changes in weather, thermal comfort, energy prices, or preferences for energy efficiency. Additionally, many thermostat manufacturers offer seasonal optimization programs that recommend changes or make minor, automated adjustments to the thermostat settings to improve energy efficiency. These opt-in programs are now standard offerings for many smart thermostat manufacturers and provided at no additional cost to users. The potential for software updates and continuous optimization and the evolving nature of user interactions mean future energy savings may differ from first-year savings and the energy savings of smart thermostats may need to be evaluated more than once. Second, smart thermostats often have small unit energy savings relative to a home's total energy consumption, especially in comparison to whole- home retrofit programs. This can make it difficult to detect the smart thermostat savings in billing or advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) meter consumption data. For example, as cooling loads in many regions average about 20% of annual electricity consumption, smart thermostat savings of 10% of cooling energy use would equate to a 2% reduction in home electricity consumption. Evaluators should use regression analysis of whole-home billing consumption or advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) meter consumption data to evaluate smart thermostat savings because, as explained at greater length below , these data are usually available to evaluators and regression can control for the impacts of weather and other potentially confounding factors on a home's energy consumption. Finally, as with other energy efficiency programs, participation in smart thermostat programs is self-selective. As discussed at greater length below , smart thermostat participants tend to be, among other things, younger, higher-income, and more likely to adopt electric vehicles (EVs) and internet connected devices than nonparticipants. These differences are often unobservable to the evaluator and correlated with a home's energy consumption, creating the potential for bias in estimating savings. Due to the small unit savings of thermostats, errors and biases from self-selection that may not be very consequential when evaluating a whole- home retrofits (e.g., ±2% of home electricity consumption) can have a major impact when evaluating the savings and cost-effectiveness of smart thermostat programs. A percentage point change in the estimated savings could affect the cost-effectiveness of a program. This means it is important for evaluators to assess and to minimize the potential for error from selection bias in estimating smart thermostat program savings. The Uniform Methods Project provides model protocols for determining energy savings and demand reductions that result from specific energy efficiency measures implemented through state and utility programs. In most cases, the measure protocols are based on a particular option identified by the International Performance Verification and Measurement Protocol ; however, this work provides a more detailed approach to implementing that option. Each chapter is written by technical experts in collaboration with their peers, reviewed by industry experts, and subject to public review and comment. The UMP protocols can be used by utilities, program administrators, public utility commissions, evaluators, and other stakeholders for both program planning and evaluation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2005

An Agent-Based Interface to Terrestrial Ecological Forecasting

The latest generation of NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites has brought a new dimension to continuous monitoring of the living part of the Earth System, the biosphere. EOS data can now provide weekly global measures of vegetation productivity and ocean chlorophyll, and many related biophysical factors such as land cover changes or snowmelt rates. However, the highest economic value would come from forecasting impending conditions of the biosphere, to allow decision makers to mitigate dangers or exploit positive trends. NASA's strategic plan for the Earth Science Enterprise i d e n a s ecological forecasting as a focus for research. Ecological forecasting predicts the effects of changes in the physical, chemical and biological environment on ecosystem activity. Possible applications of such a system include predicting shortfalls or bumper crops of agricultural production, populations of threatened or invasive species or wildfire danger in time to allow improves preparation and logistical efficiency. Petabytes of remote sensing data are now available to help measure, understand and forecast changes in the Earth system, but using these data effectively can be surprisingly hard. The volume and variety of data files and formats are daunting. Simple data management activities, such as locating and transferring files, changing file formats, gridding point data, and scaling and reprojecting gridded data, can consume far more personnel time and resources than the actual data analysis. Some scientists commit to a particular data source or resolution just because using anything different would be more effort that it's worth. Better tools can help, but most of the tools developed to date are little more than shell scripts; they lack the flexibility to meet the diverse needs of users and are difficult to extend to handle changes in available data sources.

Golden, Keith↗

DOE OSTI2022

Structure of Sulfuric Acid Solutions Using Pair Distribution Function Analysis

Solvation and mesoscale ordering of sulfuric acid and other strong acid solutions leads to suppressed freezing points and strong rheological changes with varying concentration. While the solid-state structures are well-understood, studies focused on the evolving solvation structure in the solution phase have probed a limited concentration range (~1–6 M). This study applies a total scattering approach in both the wide-angle X-ray scattering (WAXS) and pair distribution function (PDF) regimes to elucidate the evolving solvation structure over its full range of acid concentration (0–18 M). The emergence of a prepeak in the WAXS regime at intermediate concentrations indicates a transition from noninteracting sulfate molecules in the dilute limit to sterically limited sulfates at concentrations near its deep eutectic point. Fits to the PDF data quantify this trend, showing a transition from octahedrally hydrated sulfates up to 6–7 M concentrations, followed by gradual dehydration, and eventually reaching a solution structure similar to that of water-in-salt electrolyte systems at high acid concentrations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2002

Smooth Pursuit Saccade Amplitude Modulation During Exposure to Microgravity

Russian investigators have reported changes in pursuit tracking of a vertically moving point stimulus during space flight. Early in microgravity, changes were manifested by decreased eye movement amplitude (undershooting) and the appearance of correction saccades. As the flight progressed, pursuit of the moving point stimulus deteriorated while associated saccadic movements were unchanged. Immediately postflight there was an improved execution of active head movements indicating that the deficiencies in pursuit function noted in microgravity may be of central origin. In contrast, tests of two cosmonauts showed that horizontal and vertical smooth pursuit were unchanged inflight. However, results of corresponding saccadic tasks showed a tendency toward the overshooting of a horizontal target early inflight with high accuracy developing later inflight, accompanied by an increased saccade velocity and a trend toward decreased saccade latency. Based on these equivocal results, we have further investigated the effects of space flight on the smooth pursuit mechanism during and after short duration flight, and postflight on returning MIR crewmembers. Sinusoidal target movement was presented horizontally at frequencies of 0.33 and 1.0 Hz. Subjects were asked to perform two trials for each stimulus combination: (1) moving eyes-only (EO) and (2) moving eyes and head (EH) with the target motion. Peak amplitude was 30 deg for 0.33 Hz trials and 15 deg for the 1.0 Hz trials. The relationship between saccade amplitude and peak velocity were plotted as a main sequence for each phase of flight, and linear regression analysis allowed us to determine the slope of each main sequence plot. The linear slopes were then combined for each flight phase for each individual subject. The main sequence for both EO and EH trials at both the 0.33 and 1.0 Hz frequencies during flight for the short duration flyers showed a reduction in saccade velocity and amplitude when compared to the preflight main sequence . This difference in the regression slopes between flight phase, head/eye condition (EO or EH), and pursuit target frequency was observed across all subjects (statistically significant at the p<0.02, df= 2). It is interesting to note that postflight for the short duration flyers there was an immediate recovery to the preflight main sequence across all trials. There were no significant differences observed between the preflight slopes for either head movement condition (EO vs. EH). When the immediate postflight (R+O) regression slopes were compared with the preflight slopes, there was a tendency (not significant) for both saccade amplitude and peak velocity to increase during the postflight testing. This tendency had vanished by R+ 1. Of particular interest was the redistribution of saccades during the latter stages of the flight and immediately postflight in the EO condition. At the 1.0 Hz frequency the saccades tended to be clustered near the lowest target velocity. It was also interesting to note that gaze performance (eye in skull + head in space) was consistently better during the EH condition; a finding also observed by our Russian colleagues. As the results of the long duration flight become available we expect that they will not only show that postflight effects will be similar to those observed during the short duration flights, but will also last for a greater period of time following flight. It is not clear what mechanism is responsible for the decreased peak saccadic velocity during flight unless the change is related to the control of retinal slip. For example, it is possible that saccades will tend to initially undershoot their targets by a small percentage and these saccades are then followed, if vision is available, by a small augmenting corrective saccade. It has been postulated that the functional significance of this undershooting tendency is to maintain the spatial representation of the target on the same side of the fovea (as opposedo racing across the fovea) and hence in the same cerebral hemisphere that initiated the primary saccade thus minimizing delays caused by an intra-hemispheric transfer of information . One could also speculate that with saccade velocities greater than normal, additional corrective saccades would be required to bring the target back on the fovea. A less plausible explanation of our findings could be fatigue. Yet it seems unlikely that our subjects would show lower velocities on all inflight test days while showing increased saccade velocities immediately following space flight where fatigue is usually the greatest. Finally, the redistribution effect noted late inflight is likely caused by adaptive changes. Overall, corrective saccades appeared to be used in maintaining gaze on target; reducing retinal slip and assisting space travelers in maintaining clear vision throughout the different phases of the space flight.

Reschke, M. F.↗

NASA NTRS1977

The photochemical cycle of bacteriorhodopsin

The reaction cycle of bacteriorhodopsin in the purple membrane isolated from Halobacterium halobium has been studied by optical absorption spectroscopy using low-temperature and flash kinetic techniques. After absorption of light, bacteriorhodopsin passes through at least five distinct intermediates. The temperature and pH dependence of the absorbance changes suggests that branch points and/or reversible steps exist in this cycle. Flash spectroscopy in the presence of a pH-indicating dye shows that the transient release of a proton accompanies the photoreaction cycle. The proton release occurs from the exterior and the uptake is on the cytoplasmic side of the membrane, as required by the function of bacteriorhodopsin as a light-driven proton pump. Proton translocating steps connecting release and uptake are indicated by deuterium isotope effects on the kinetics of the cycle. The rapid decay of a light-induced linear dichroism shows that a chromophore orientation change occurs during the reaction cycle.

Lozier, R. H.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Visualizing plant cell wall changes proves the superiority of hydrochloric acid over sulfuric acid catalyzed γ-valerolactone pretreatment

Thermochemical pretreatment is one of the key steps to process lignocellulosic biomass for production of biofuels and biomaterials. γ-valerolactone (GVL) has been used as a green and renewable solvent to efficiently dissolve lignin under acidic conditions and enhance subsequent enzyme digestibility. Further improvement is still required to lower the pretreatment temperature in order to reduce sugar degradation and irreversible lignin condensation, as well as the capital cost. In this study, we compared the use of HCl and H 2 SO 4 as catalysts during GVL pretreatment, and found the performance of GVL-HCl at 100 °C was comparable to that of GVL-H 2 SO 4 at 120 °C in terms of xylan and lignin removal and enzyme digestibility. We further monitored the lignin removal and cellulose accessibility in the cell walls at different pretreatment time points by imaging the changes in lignin auto-fluorescence and in CtCBM3-GFP binding with confocal laser scanning microscopy (CLSM), respectively. We found GVL-HCl pretreatment at a relative low temperature (100 °C) could rapidly remove lignin in the compound middle lamella and cell corner areas, which concurred with the increase of CtCBM3-GFP binding in these areas. Real-time imaging of cell wall degradation by cellulases further revealed that the secondary cell walls could be digested from both cell lumen and CML sides, and eventually fully deconstructed within 24 h. Furthermore, our results provide new insight into the effects of chloride anions on plant cell wall structure during GVL pretreatment, and offer potential routes to further optimize and enhance the efficiency of GVL-based pretreatment.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS2015

Enabling Parametric Optimal Ascent Trajectory Modeling During Early Phases of Design

During the early phases of engineering design, the costs committed are high, costs incurred are low, and the design freedom is high. It is well documented that decisions made in these early design phases drive the entire design's life cycle. In a traditional paradigm, key design decisions are made when little is known about the design. As the design matures, design changes become more difficult -- in both cost and schedule -- to enact. Indeed, the current capability-based paradigm that has emerged because of the constrained economic environment calls for the infusion of knowledge acquired during later design phases into earlier design phases, i.e. bring knowledge acquired during preliminary and detailed design into pre-conceptual and conceptual design. An area of critical importance to launch vehicle design is the optimization of its ascent trajectory, as the optimal trajectory will be able to take full advantage of the launch vehicle's capability to deliver a maximum amount of payload into orbit. Hence, the optimal ascent trajectory plays an important role in the vehicle's affordability posture as the need for more economically viable access to space solutions are needed in today's constrained economic environment. The problem of ascent trajectory optimization is not a new one. There are several programs that are widely used in industry that allows trajectory analysts to, based on detailed vehicle and insertion orbit parameters, determine the optimal ascent trajectory. Yet, little information is known about the launch vehicle early in the design phase - information that is required of many different disciplines in order to successfully optimize the ascent trajectory. Thus, the current paradigm of optimizing ascent trajectories involves generating point solutions for every change in a vehicle's design parameters. This is often a very tedious, manual, and time-consuming task for the analysts. Moreover, the trajectory design space is highly non-linear and multi-modal due to the interaction of various constraints. Additionally, when these obstacles are coupled with The Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories [1] (POST), an industry standard program to optimize ascent trajectories that is difficult to use, it requires expert trajectory analysts to effectively optimize a vehicle's ascent trajectory. As it has been pointed out, the paradigm of trajectory optimization is still a very manual one because using modern computational resources on POST is still a challenging problem. The nuances and difficulties involved in correctly utilizing, and therefore automating, the program presents a large problem. In order to address these issues, the authors will discuss a methodology that has been developed. The methodology is two-fold: first, a set of heuristics will be introduced and discussed that were captured while working with expert analysts to replicate the current state-of-the-art; secondly, leveraging the power of modern computing to evaluate multiple trajectories simultaneously, and therefore, enable the exploration of the trajectory's design space early during the pre-conceptual and conceptual phases of design. When this methodology is coupled with design of experiments in order to train surrogate models, the authors were able to visualize the trajectory design space, enabling parametric optimal ascent trajectory information to be introduced with other pre-conceptual and conceptual design tools. The potential impact of this methodology's success would be a fully automated POST evaluation suite for the purpose of conceptual and preliminary design trade studies. This will enable engineers to characterize the ascent trajectory's sensitivity to design changes in an arbitrary number of dimensions and for finding settings for trajectory specific variables, which result in optimal performance for a "dialed-in" launch vehicle design. The effort described in this paper was developed for the Advanced Concepts Office [2] at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center

Holt, James B.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Zero-G fluid mechanics in animal and man

Significant cardiovascular change occurs with spaceflight. Loss of normal hydrostatic pressure gradients (head-to-foot), present while upright on earth, results in significant headward fluid shift of vascular and interstitial fluids. The resultant fluid change also shifts the hydrostatic indifference point for the circulation. The persistent distention of neck veins and change in upper body tissue compliance initiates steps to adapt to and compensate for the sensed excess fluid. These result in a loss of intravascular volume through neuro-humoral mechanisms and the presence of a smaller heart size, leading to a state where the subject has a reduced adaptive capacity to stress, particularly to fluid shifts to the lower body as occurs when once again returning to earth. This article reviews what is known about the weightlessness-induced headward fluid shift and its effects on cardiovascular function.

Sandler, H.↗

NASA NTRS1995

A conjecture on global flow dynamics

Recent observations by the Yohkoh and Ulysses spacecraft have instilled a new appreciation for the role of the ever-evolving geometry and topology of the coronal magnetic structure in shaping and influencing the global solar wind outflow. While many issues concerning the global evolution of large-scale interplanetary flow structures await resolution, we focus here on one specific problem. Namely, we argue that when considering the impact of solar activity on heliosphere scales, rather more attention should be directed toward ascertaining the nature and implications of long-term. Large-scale changes in the corona than toward the more dramatic and highly visible manifestations of solar activity, such as flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). That is, while energetic CMEs unquestionably disrupt the interplanetary medium locally and for a time by the broader measure they prompt lasting, wide-spread heliospheric response only when they occur as the agent of substantial, long-term change in the global configuration of the corona. In support, we point to various evidences of coronal change associated with major episodes of heliospheric disruption, and we discuss the limitations imposed by current observation techniques. In addition, we offer dynamical arguments (illustrated by a simple dynamical simulation) that when the coronal configuration changes quickly enough over sufficient spatial scale, a re-adjustment wave linking the initial and final quasi-steady flow states must propagate out from the Sun. This wave is transitory and global, and its amplitude can grow to substantial proportions with heliocentric distance. Moreover, the readjustment wave occurs whether or not the corona needs to expel CMEs to reconfigure itself. We suggest that it is this wave (and not so much the remnants of the initiating CMEs) that constitutes global merged interaction regions in the outer heliosphere.

Pizzo, V. J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating How Climate Adaptation Measures Affect the Interconnected Water‐Energy Resource Systems of the Western United States

Abstract The Western US faces increasing water stress from the impacts of climate change, making it difficult to meet water demands for the region's cities, agriculture, and hydropower generators. Existing literature suggests that climate adaptation measures such as water conservation, cropland retirement, wastewater recycling, and managed aquifer recharge can alleviate some of these challenges. Few analyses, however, compare the relative efficacy and system‐wide effects of these adaptations under different climate projections across the entire Western United States. Here we use a Western US‐wide water systems model to evaluate, by sector and sub‐region, how the widespread implementation of these adaptive measures impacts water demands, water deliveries, and electricity use related to the water system for three different climate projections. We find that wastewater recycling has greater potential to lower unmet indoor water demands than urban indoor water conservation measures. However, when implemented at scale, indoor water conservation reduces electricity use by an average of 683 Terawatt hours while wastewater recycling increases energy use by an average of 721 Terawatt hours, cumulatively from 2020 to 2070. Cropland retirement and aquifer recharge adaptations increase the ability to meet agricultural water demand, increase groundwater storage, and reduce summertime electricity use. While most of these findings are consistent across different climate projections, the benefits of aquifer recharge are sensitive to spatial variation of precipitation. Given the limitations and tradeoffs of each individually, the results suggest that a portfolio of adaptation measures will be needed for a climate‐resilient water and energy future in the Western US. Plain Language Summary The Western US faces increased water stress from the impacts of climate change, making it difficult to meet demands for cities, agriculture, and hydropower facilities. Adaptation measures like water conservation, retiring agricultural lands, recycling wastewater, and storing water underground can address these challenges. However, there is little modeling to understand the impact of these adaptations if they were implemented across the entire Western US while also considering climate change. We use a Western US‐wide water systems model to evaluate how implementing adaptation measures impacts groundwater levels, the ability to meet water demands, and electricity use related to water in three different possible climate futures. We find that recycling wastewater to drinking water standards does a better job of meeting urban water demands than water conservation measures. However, indoor water conservation reduces energy use for water while recycling wastewater increases energy use for water. Retiring agricultural lands and storing water underground both increase the ability to meet agricultural water demands, increase underground water storage, and reduce summertime energy use. No adaptation measures provides benefits across every metric we track. Therefore, multiple adaptation measures will likely be needed to achieve a climate‐resilient future for energy and water in the Western US. Key Points Water‐related climate change adaptations have different benefits and tradeoffs for interconnected water‐energy systems in the Western U.S. Wastewater recycling most increases urban water coverage, but has a significant tradeoff in the form of greater electricity use Cropland retirement and aquifer recharge benefit water and electricity systems most in the summer when those systems are most stressed

Singhal, A↗

NASA NTRS2015

An Expert System-Driven Method for Parametric Trajectory Optimization During Conceptual Design

Dees, Patrick D.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Amplified drought trends in Nepal increase the potential for Himalayan wildfires

Here we report in the spring 2021, Nepal underwent a record wildfire season in which active fires were detected at a rate 10 times greater than the 2002–2020 average. Prior to these major wildfire events, the country experienced a prolonged precipitation deficit and extreme drought during the post-monsoon period (starting in October 2020). An analysis using observational, reanalysis, and climate model ensemble data indicates that both climate variability and climate change-induced severe drought conditions were at play. Further analysis of climate model outputs suggests the likely reoccurrence of drought conditions, thus favoring active wildfire seasons in Nepal throughout the twenty-first century. While the inter-model uncertainty is large and direct modeling of wildfire spread and suppression has not been completed, the demonstrated relationship between a drought index (the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index) and subsequent fire activity may offer actionable opportunities for forest managers to employ the monitoring and projection of climate anomalies at sub-seasonal to decadal timescales to inform their management strategies for Nepal’s wildlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗