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NASA NTRS2002

Comparison of measurements and models in stratospheric polar vortex studies

An overview will be given of recent studies comparing model results with observations of stratospheric meteorological and trace gas fields, focusing on the polar vortex during winter. Studies comparing process-oriented (e.g., stability) model, mechanistic (i.e., forced lower boundary near the tropopause) model and general circulation model (GCM) simulations of the dynamics of the polar winter stratosphere with analyzed or assimilated meteorological datasets are reviewed.

modeling↗

NASA NTRS2011

Spectral and Vertical Distribution Properties of Titan's Particulates from Thermal-IR CIRS Data: Physical Implications

Analyses of far-IR spectra between 20 and 560/cm (500 and 18 micron) recorded by the Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) yield the spectral dependence and the vertical distribution of Titan's photochemical aerosol and stratospheric ice clouds. Below the stratopause (approx. 300 km) the aerosol appears to be incompletely mixed for the following reasons: 1) the altitude dependence of the aerosol mass absorption coefficient is larger at higher altitudes than at lower altitudes, 2} the aerosol scale height varies with altitude, which implies some kind of layering effect, and 3) the aerosol abundance varies with latitude. The spectral shape of the aerosol opacity appears to be independent in altitude and latitude below the stratopause, even though inhomogeneities in the abundance appear to be prevalent throughout this altitude region. This implies that aerosol chemistry is restricted to altitude regions above the stratopause, where pressures are less than approx 0.1 mbar. The aerosol exhibits an extremely broad emisSion feature with a spectral peak at 140/cm (71 micron), which is not evident in laboratory simulated Titan aerosols (tholin) that are created at pressures greater than 0.1 mbar. A strong broad emission feature centered roughly around 160 cm-1 corresponds very closely to those found in nitrile ice spectra. This feature is pervasive throughout the region from high northern to high southern latitudes. The inference of nitrile ices is consistent with the highly restricted altitude ranges over which these features are observed, and appear to be dominated by HCN and HC3N. At low and moderate latitudes these clouds are observed to be located between 60 and 100 km, whereas at high northern latitudes during northern winter these clouds are observed at altitudes between 150 and 165 km. The ubiquitous nature of these nitrile ice clouds is inconsistent with a simple meridional circulation concept, suggesting that the true dynamical situation is more complex.

Anderson, Carrie M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

TOPEX/POSEIDON Mission Early Results

The joint U.S./France TOPEX/Poseidon satellite was launched on August 10, 1992. Orbiting at an altitude of 1336 km with an inclination of 66 degrees, the satellite has been measuring the global sea surface height using a radar altimeter system along the same tracks on Earth every 10 days since late September, 1992. The major goal of the mission is to make precise measurements of the height of the sea surface for the study of the dynamics of large-scale ocean circulation. Additionally, the data will be used for studying ocean tides and marine geophysics. The radar altimeter also measures wave height and wind speed. The mission is being conducted to optimize the sea surface height measurements for a minimum of three years. The primary objective of the first six months of the mission was to calibrate and validate the mission's measurements...

Christensen, Edward J.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Variability in the Speed of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation as Observed by Aura/MLS

We use Aura/MLS stratospheric water vapour (H2O) measurements as tracer for dynamics and infer interannual variations in the speed of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) from 2004 to 2011. We correlate one-year time series of H2O in the lower stratosphere at two subsequent pressure levels (68 hPa, approx.18.8 km and 56 hPa, approx 19.9 km at the Equator) and determine the time lag for best correlation. The same calculation is made on the horizontal on the 100 hPa (approx 16.6 km) level by correlating the H2O time series at the Equator with the ones at 40 N and 40 S. From these lag coefficients we derive the vertical and horizontal speeds of the BDC in the tropics and extra-tropics, respectively. We observe a clear interannual variability of the vertical and horizontal branch. The variability reflects signatures of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Our measurements confirm the QBO meridional circulation anomalies and show that the speed variations in the two branches of the BDC are out of phase and fairly well anti-correlated. Maximum ascent rates are found during the QBO easterly phase. We also find that transport of H2O towards the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is on the average two times faster than to the Southern Hemisphere (SH) with a mean speed of 1.15m/s at 100 hPa. Furthermore, the speed towards the NH shows much more interannual variability with an amplitude of about 21% whilst the speed towards the SH varies by only 10 %. An amplitude of 21% is also observed in the variability of the ascent rate at the Equator which is on the average 0.2mm/s.

Brewer-Dobson circulation↗

NASA NTRS1990

Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and Earth-system processes

Researchers are continuing their studies of the nonlinear dynamics of global weather systems. Sensitivity analyses of large-scale dynamical models of the atmosphere (i.e., general circulation models i.e., GCM's) were performed to establish the role of satellite-signatures of soil moisture, sea surface temperature, snow cover, and sea ice as crucial boundary conditions determining global weather variability. To complete their study of the bimodality of the planetary wave states, they are using the dynamical systems approach to construct a low-order theoretical explanation of this phenomenon. This work should have important implications for extended range forecasting of low-frequency oscillations, elucidating the mechanisms for the transitions between the two wave modes. Researchers are using the methods of jump analysis and attractor dimension analysis to examine the long-term satellite records of significant variables (e.g., long wave radiation, and cloud amount), to explore the nature of mode transitions in the atmosphere, and to determine the minimum number of equations needed to describe the main weather variations with a low-order dynamical system. Where feasible they will continue to explore the applicability of the methods of complex dynamical systems analysis to the study of the global earth-system from an integrative viewpoint involving the roles of geochemical cycling and the interactive behavior of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere.

Saltzman, Barry↗

NASA NTRS1993

Global variations of zonal mean ozone during stratospheric warming events

Eight years of Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) ozone data are examined to study zonal mean variations associated with stratospheric planetary wave (warming) events. These fluctuations are found to be nearly global in extent, with relatively large variations in the tropics, and coherent signatures reaching up to 50 deg in the opposite (summer) hemisphere. These ozone variations are a manifestation of the global circulation cells associated with stratospheric warming events; the ozone responds dynamically in the lower stratosphere to transport, and photochemically in the upper stratosphere to the circulation-induced temperature changes. The observed ozone variations in the tropics are of particular interest because transport is dominated by zonal-mean vertical motions (eddy flux divergences and mean meridional transports are negligible), and hence, substantial simplifications to the governing equations occur. The response of the atmosphere to these impulsive circulation changes provides a situation for robust estimates of the ozone-temperature sensitivity in the upper stratosphere.

Randel, William J.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Design for and efficient dynamic climate model with realistic geography

The long term climate sensitivity which include realistic atmospheric dynamics are severely restricted by the expense of integrating atmospheric general circulation models are discussed. Taking as an example models used at GSFC for this dynamic model is an alternative which is of much lower horizontal or vertical resolution. The model of Heid and Suarez uses only two levels in the vertical and, although it has conventional grid resolution in the meridional direction, horizontal resolution is reduced by keeping only a few degrees of freedom in the zonal wavenumber spectrum. Without zonally asymmetric forcing this model simulates a day in roughly 1/2 second on a CRAY. The model under discussion is a fully finite differenced, zonally asymmetric version of the Heid-Suarez model. It is anticipated that speeds can be obtained a few seconds a day roughly 50 times faster than moderate resolution, multilayer GCM's.

Suarez, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Flow-Field Measurement of Device-Induced Embedded Streamwise Vortex on a Flat Plate

Detailed flow-field measurements were performed downstream of a single vortex generator (VG) using an advanced Stereo Digital Particle Image Velocimetry system. Thc passive flow-control devices examined consisted of a low-profile VG with a device height, h, approximately equal to 20 percent of the boundary-layer thickness, sigma, and a conventional VG with h is approximately sigma. Flow-field data were taken at twelve cross-flow planes downstream of the VG to document and quantify the evolution of embedded streamwise vortex. The effects of device angle of attack on vortex development downstream were compared between the low-profile VG and the conventional VG. Key parameters including vorticity, circulation, trajectory, and half-life radius - describing concentration, strength, path, and size, respectively--of the device-induced streamwise vortex were extracted from the flow-field data. The magnitude of maximum vorticity increases as angle of attack increases for the low-profile VG, but the trend is reversed for the conventional VG, probably due to flow stalling around the larger device at higher angles of attack. Peak vorticity and circulation for the low-profile VG decays exponentially and inversely proportional to the distance downstream from the device. The device-height normalized vortex trajectories for the low-profile VG, especially in the lateral direction, follow the general trends of the conventional VG. The experimental database was used to validate the predictive capability of computational fluid dynamics (CFD). CFD accurately predicts the vortex circulation and path; however, improvements are needed for predicting the vorticity strength and vortex size.

Yao, Chung-Sheng↗

NASA NTRS2004

The Contribution of Dynamic Interannual Variability to Ozone Trends

At middle latitudes the total column ozone and the lower stratospheric ozone mixing ratio exhibit natural variability. Models and statistical analyses of observations such as SAGE ozone profiles and TOMS column measurements show that seasonal cycle, solar cycle, and interannual dynamical variability and dynamical phenomena such as the quasi- biennial oscillation all contribute to ozone variability. These must be accounted for when deriving ozone trends. Systematic or random changes in the atmospheric circulation may also contribute to ozone trends. It is presently unclear how much of the ozone trend derived from observations is due to changes in the chemical composition of the stratosphere and how much is due to changes in the atmospheric circulation. We are attempting to resolve this issue by comparing a twenty-five year simulation of ozone with fixed source gas boundary conditions with an identical simulation with time dependent source gas boundary conditions. Both simulations are driven with output from a general circulation model that produces realistic interannual variability in dynamical forcing. The model trend in ozone due to changes in composition is determined from the difference in these simulations. We compare these trends with trends determined from observations and model output using the same analysis techniques. Initial results emphasize the complications to attribution of observed ozone trends to dynamical and photochemical effects that are due to interrelationships between trends in transport, temperature, and photochemical effects. It may not be possible to describe the ozone trend as a superposition of dynamical and photochemical contributions.

Douglass, Anne↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling regional precipitation over the Indus River basin of Pakistan using statistical downscaling

Complex processes govern spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation within the high-mountainous headwater regions (commonly known as the upper Indus basin (UIB)), of the Indus River basin of Pakistan. Reliable precipitation simulations particularly over the UIB present a major scientific challenge due to regional complexity and inadequate observational coverage. Here, we present a statistical downscaling approach to model observed precipitation of the entire Indus basin, with a focus on UIB within available data constraints. Taking advantage of recent high altitude (HA) observatories, we perform precipitation regionalization using K-means cluster analysis to demonstrate effectiveness of low-altitude stations to provide useful precipitation inferences over more uncertain and hydrologically important HA of the UIB. We further employ generalized linear models (GLM) with gamma and Tweedie distributions to identify major dynamic and thermodynamic drivers from a reanalysis dataset within a robust cross-validation framework that explain observed spatiotemporal precipitation patterns across the Indus basin. Final statistical models demonstrate higher predictability to resolve precipitation variability over wetter southern Himalayans and different lower Indus regions, by mainly using different dynamic predictors. The modeling framework also shows an adequate performance over more complex and uncertain trans-Himalayans and the northwestern regions of the UIB, particularly during the seasons dominated by the westerly circulations. However, the cryosphere-dominated trans-Himalayan regions, which largely govern the basin hydrology, require relatively complex models that contain dynamic and thermodynamic circulations. Furthermore, we also analyzed relevant atmospheric circulations during precipitation anomalies over the UIB, to evaluate physical consistency of the statistical models, as an additional measure of reliability. Overall, our results suggest that such circulation-based statistical downscaling has the potential to improve our understanding towards distinct features of the regional-scale precipitation across the upper and lower Indus basin. Additionally, such understanding should help to assess the response of this complex, data-scarce, and climate-sensitive river basin amid future climatic changes, to serve communal and scientific interests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

Modeling the Atmospheric Structure and Dynamics of the Martian Atmosphere

Models of the general circulation and climate system of Mars have reached a high level of maturity, but observations to validate them have lacked the kind of global and temporal coverage required. However, we are now on the verge of a new era in Mars exploration as Mars Global Surveyor, and the now enroute Mars Climate Orbiter, will provide daily global coverage of the atmosphere for two Mars years. In the coming years, data from these missions will test the predictions of general circulation models (GCM's) whose results have perhaps become too accepted as truth. This talk will review what GCM's tell us about Mars, what their weaknesses are, and what the latest results imply for their future. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Haberle, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Venus O2 visible and IR nightglow: Implications for lower thermosphere dynamics and chemistry

The National Center for Atmospheric Research thermospheric general circulation model for the Venus thermosphere is modified to examine two observed night airglow features, both of which serve as sensitive tracers of the thermospheric circulation. New O2 nightglow data from the Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) star tracker (O2 Herzberg II at 400-800 nm) and ground-based telescopes (O2 IR at 1.27 microns) yield additional model constraints for estimating Venus winds over 100-130 km. Atomic oxygen, produced by dayside CO2 photolysis peaking near 110 km, and transported to the nightside by the global wind system, is partially destroyed through three-body recombination, yielding the O2 Herzberg II visible nightglow. This emission is very sensitive to horizontal winds at altitudes between 100 and 130 km. Other trace species catalytic reactions also contribute to the production of the very strong nightside infrared (1.27 microns) emission. This paper examines the dynamical and chemical implications of these new data using the Venus thermospheric general circulation model (VTGCM) as an analysis tool. Three-dimensional calculations are presented for both solar maximum and solar medium conditions, corresponding to early PVO (1979-1981) and PVO entry (mid-1992) time periods. Very distinct periods are identified in which zonal winds are alternately weak and strong in the Venus lower thermosphere. VTGCM sensitivity studies are conducted to assess the impacts of potential changes in thermospheric zonal and day-to-night winds, and eddy diffusion on the corresponding nightglow intensities. It appears that cyclostrophic balance extends above 80 km periodically, owing to a reversal of the upper mesosphere latitudinal temperature gradient, and thereby producing strong zonal winds and correspondingly modified O2 nightglow distributions that are observed.

Bougher, S. W.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Colliding Pulse Mode Locking and Nonequilibrium Carrier Dynamics within Vertical External-Cavity Surface-Emitting Lasers

The complex nonlinear dynamics of colliding counterpropagating ultrashort laser pulses circulating in a vertical external-cavity surface-emitting ring laser cavity are captured by a first-principles quantum-mechanical microscopic model coupled to an intracavity beam propagator. Furthermore, our numerical simulations establish that overall mode locking stability is sensitive to relative phases and delays of the pulses impinging on the semiconductor saturable absorber mirror. Delay offsets of the counterpropagating pulses lead to asymmetric carrier recovery and instability, often leading in turn to single unidirectional circulating pulses. Although computationally challenging, we also include transverse effects and show that the influence of interference patterns from spatial gratings written by the counterpropagating pulses is significant in stabilizing the modelocked pulses.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS1992

A three-dimensional model simulation of atmospheric nitrous oxide

The NASA Langley 3D GCM chemical transport model is used to investigate the distribution of atmospheric N2O up to 60 km altitude. The transport characteristics of the model is evaluated without the complications of a detailed chemical formulation for all of the relevant stratospheric minor constituents. Interpretation of the yearly average zonal mean N2O distribution in terms of transport by the yearly averaged meridional circulation and stratospheric photochemical loss indicates large regions in the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere where dynamical mixing apparently plays a large role in maintaining the N2O distribution. In these regions, slopes of the N2O mixing ratio isopleths are maintained by competition between advection by the meridional circulation acting to steepen and dynamical mixing acting to flatten the slopes.

Turner, R. E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Impact of Atmospheric Dynamics and Anthropogenic Very Short-Lived Chlorine Species on the Recovery of Extra-Polar Ozone

The successful implementation of the Montreal Protocol has led to a decrease in the atmospheric abundance of ozone-depleting substances and a slowing in the destruction of the ozone layer. Previous studies have suggested that atmospheric dynamics, or a rise in compounds not regulated by the Montreal Protocol, such as very short-lived chlorine species (VSL Cl), may lead to a slower than expected recovery of the ozone layer. In this presentation, we examine the expected recovery of total column ozone (TCO) and stratospheric column ozone (SCO) to values observed in 1980 using a novel multiple linear regression (MLR) model that involves a month-by-month regression. The MLR model is trained to TCO anomalies from six data records (SBUV v8.7 MOD, SBUV v8.6 COH, WOUDC, GSG, GTO-ECV, MSR-2) over 1979 to 2021 for the Northern Hemisphere (35N – 60N), the Southern Hemisphere (60S – 35S) and the Tropics (20S – 20N), and SCO anomalies from ML-TOMCAT for these same zonal bands. The MLR includes the effect of halogens (equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC)), total solar irradiance, stratospheric aerosol optical depth, quasi-biennial oscillation, and the El Niño Southern Oscillation as regressors. We also include the effect of atmospheric dynamics such as the Brewer-Dobson Circulation, Arctic Oscillation, and the Antarctic Oscillation, and VSL Cl species in the formulation of EESC. We use a novel approach to the MLR framework, by separating the observed and regressor time series into the respective months (separating all of the Januarys, Februarys, etc.). Then we conduct a regression for each month from 1979 to 2021 for the three zonal bands denoted above. The model results for each month are combined together to achieve a full monthly time series from 1979 to 2021. We use this novel approach to ascertain the effect of atmospheric dynamics on TCO and SCO, since the dynamical proxies affect ozone in a distinctly different manner for various months. In this presentation, we will quantify the role of both the inclusion of VSL Cl species in the formulation of EESC as well as atmospheric dynamics in explaining the slower than expected recovery of extra-polar TCO and SCO over the past decade.

Laura A. McBride↗

NASA NTRS2020

Description and Evaluation of the Specified-Dynamics Experiment in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative

We provide an overview of the REF-C1SD specified-dynamics experiment that was conducted as part of phase 1 of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). The REF-C1SD experiment, which consisted of mainly nudged general circulation models (GCMs) constrained with (re)analysis fields, was designed to examine the influence of the large-scale circulation on past trends in atmospheric composition. The REF-C1SD simulations were produced across various model frameworks and are evaluated in terms of how well they represent different measures of the dynamical and transport circulations. In the troposphere there are large (~40 %) differences in the climatological mean distributions, seasonal cycle amplitude, and trends of the meridional and vertical winds. In the stratosphere there are similarly large (~50 %) differences in the magnitude, trends and seasonal cycle amplitude of the transformed Eulerian mean circulation and among various chemical and idealized tracers. At the same time, interannual variations in nearly all quantities are very well represented, compared to the underlying reanalyses. We show that the differences in magnitude, trends and seasonal cycle are not related to the use of different reanalysis products; rather, we show they are associated with how the simulations were implemented, by which we refer both to how the large-scale flow was prescribed and to biases in the underlying free-running models. In most cases these differences are shown to be as large or even larger than the differences exhibited by free-running simulations produced using the exact same models, which are also shown to be more dynamically consistent. Overall, our results suggest that care must be taken when using specified-dynamics simulations to examine the influence of large-scale dynamics on composition.

Clara Orbe↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical Testing of a Hybrid Machine Learning‐Physics Global Atmosphere Model

Machine learning (ML)-based models have demonstrated high skill and computational efficiency, often outperforming conventional physics-based models in weather and subseasonal predictions. While prior studies have assessed their fidelity in capturing synoptic-scale atmospheric dynamics, their performance across timescales and under out-of-distribution forcing, such as +3K or +4K uniform-warming forcings, and the sources of biases remain elusive, to establish the model's reliability for Earth science. Here, we design three sets of experiments targeting synoptic-scale phenomena, interannual variability, and out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings. We evaluate the Neural General Circulation Model (NeuralGCM), a hybrid model integrating a dynamical core with ML-based component, against observations and physics-based Earth system models (ESMs). At the synoptic scale, NeuralGCM captures the evolution and propagation of extratropical cyclones with performance comparable to ESMs. At the interannual scale, when forced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, NeuralGCM successfully reproduces associated teleconnection patterns but exhibits deficiencies in capturing nonlinear response. Under out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings, NeuralGCM simulates similar responses in global-average temperature and precipitation and reproduces large-scale tropospheric circulation features similar to those in ESMs. Notable weaknesses include overestimating the tracks and spatial extent of extratropical cyclones, biases in the teleconnected wave train triggered by tropical SST anomalies, and differences in upper-level warming and stratospheric circulation responses to SST warming compared to physics-based ESMs. The causes of these weaknesses were explored. Despite the noted weaknesses, NeuralGCM reproduces responses across experiments reasonably and performs comparably to ESMs. By integrating a dynamical core with ML, NeuralGCM shows potential for developing ML-based ESMs.

global warming↗

NASA NTRS2007

Salinity Remote Sensing and the Study of the Global Water Cycle

The SMOS and AquariusISAC-D satellite missions will begin a new era to map the global sea surface salinity (SSS) field and its variability from space within the next twothree years. They will provide critical data needed to study the interactions between the ocean circulation, global water cycle and climate. Key scientific issues to address are (1) mapping large expanses of the ocean where conventional SSS data do not yet exist, (2) understanding the seasonal and interannual SSS variations and the link to precipitation, evaporation and sea-ice patterns, (3) links between SSS and variations in the oceanic overturning circulation, (4) air-sea coupling processes in the tropics that influence El Nino, and (4) closing the marine freshwater budget. There is a growing body of oceanographic evidence in the form of salinity trends that portend significant changes in the hydrologic cycle. Over the past several decades, highlatitude oceans have become fresher while the subtropical oceans have become saltier. This change is slowly spreading into the subsurface ocean layers and may be affecting the strength of the ocean's therrnohaline overturning circulation. Salinity is directly linked to the ocean dynamics through the density distribution, and provides an important signature of the global water cycle. The distribution and variation of oceanic salinity is therefore attracting increasing scientific attention due to the relationship to the global water cycle and its influence on circulation, mixing, and climate processes. The oceans dominate the water cycle by providing 86% of global surface evaporation (E) and receiving 78% of global precipitation (P). Regional differences in E-P, land runoff, and the melting or freezing of ice affect the salinity of surface water. Direct observations of E-P over the ocean have large uncertainty, with discrepancies between the various state-of-the-art precipitation analyses of a factor of two or more in many regions. Quantifying the climatic influence of the oceanic water cycle requires more accurately resolving the net air-sea water flux. Measuring global SSS trends on seasonal to interannual timescales by satellite is fundamental to this problem because the SSS trends represent detectable time-integrated signals of the variable marine hydrological cycle. Satellite measurements, coupled with an array of in situ observations, will provide global synoptic SSS fields for the first time history. These data will provide a strong constraint on climate models and data assimilation efforts, which must properly represent the freshwater budget in terms of E-P, ocean advection and surface layer mixing in order to accurately simulate the true ocean state. The SSS fields will allow us to quantify the covariability between the SSS and the strong seasonal E-P cycle in the tropics and high latitudes. Field measurement campaigns to exploit satellite and in situ measurements to close the seasonal E-P cycle over an ocean region are being considered. Lastly the satellite systems will monitor and trace the large long-lived SSS anomalies from year to year that have the potential to influence El Nino and the large scale ocean circulation.

Lagerloef, G. S. E.↗