Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “climate risk”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2009

The Long, Hard Journey: Expanding the Use of NASA Data and Models for Sustainable Development Planning Around the World

In 2007, the National Research Council's committee on Extending Observations and Research Results to Practical Applications recommended that NASA's Applied Science Program (ASP) directly engage with a broader community of users - not just federal agencies. Soon afterwards, scientists at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center began discussions on a collaborative research project with EMBARQ - the World Resource Institute's Center for Sustainable Transport. The discussions initially focused on how best to utilize satellite observations and atmospheric models for assessing the impact of a proposed transportation project on land use and air quality. Discussions exposed the participants to a broad spectrum of science and policy challenges that these diverse organizations face on a routine basis. It brought into clear focus the need for an observation-modeling system that will allow a proactive approach towards development planning, and the fact that satellite systems do not always provide the spatial and temporal resolution useful for urban-scale applications, underscoring the need for earth system models to bridge this gap. Realizing the significant risk that unplanned urbanization and climate change pose to the social and functional stability of large cities, both organizations decided to expand the scope of their preliminary discussion to include water resources and agriculture. A pilot project, funded by NASA ASP, EMBARQ and Istanbul Technical University focused on quantifying the magnitude and extent of urbanization in Istanbul, and analyzed the combined effect of urbanization and projected climate change on local climate, air quality, and its consequent effects on agricultural productivity. Preliminary results show that Istanbul has undergone a significant amount of Land Use/Land Cover change over the past two decades. While some forested areas have been lost to urban-landscapes, urbanization has mostly occurred over former croplands due to the fact that in contrast to forested areas, croplands have flat terrain, making them a more attractive target for conversion to urban land. The reduction in land area for agricultural and increase in temperature has reduced agricultural production in the vicinity of the city. The United Nations expects the world population to reach 9.2 billion by 2050. Most of this increase will be absorbed by countries that are least able to sustain it. Rapid economic growth is likely to continue and will require massive infrastructure investments. If not properly managed, the magnitude and extent of these initiatives will overwhelm sensitive ecosystems around the world. Successful relationships such as the one described here are critically important if we are to stabilize the threatened ecosystems on which human systems ultimately rely. The challenges, needs, culture, and operating environment of development planning organizations are fundamentally different from a research organization. An appreciation of these differences is a prerequisite for any successful collaboration.

Khan, Maudood↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Applications Activity

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission is one of the first-tier satellite missions recommended by the U.S. National Research Council Committee on Earth Science and Applications from Space. The SMAP mission 1 is under development by NASA and is scheduled for launch late in 2014. The SMAP measurements will allow global and high-resolution mapping of soil moisture and its freeze/thaw state at resolutions from 3-40 km. These measurements will have high value for a wide range of environmental applications that underpin many weather-related decisions including drought and flood guidance, agricultural productivity estimation, weather forecasting, climate predictions, and human health risk. In 2007, NASA was tasked by The National Academies to ensure that emerging scientific knowledge is actively applied to obtain societal benefits by broadening community participation and improving means for use of information. SMAP is one of the first missions to come out of this new charge, and its Applications Plan forms the basis for ensuring its commitment to its users. The purpose of this paper is to outline the methods and approaches of the SMAP applications activity, which is designed to increase and sustain the interaction between users and scientists involved in mission development.

Brown, Molly E.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Homogeneity of a Global Multisatellite Soil Moisture Climate Data Record

Climate Data Records (CDR) that blend multiple satellite products are invaluable for climate studies, trend analysis and risk assessments. Knowledge of any inhomogeneities in the CDR is therefore critical for making correct inferences. This work proposes a methodology to identify the spatiotemporal extent of the inhomogeneities in a 36-year, global multisatellite soil moisture CDR as the result of changing observing systems. Inhomogeneities are detected at up to 24 percent of the tested pixels with spatial extent varying with satellite changeover times. Nevertheless, the contiguous periods without inhomogeneities at changeover times are generally longer than 10 years. Although the inhomogeneities have measurable impact on the derived trends, these trends are similar to those observed in ground data and land surface reanalysis, with an average error less than 0.003 cubic meters per cubic meter per year. These results strengthen the basis of using the product for long-term studies and demonstrate the necessity of homogeneity testing of multisatellite CDRs in general.

CDR↗
NASA NTRS2020

Twenty‐First Century Drought Projections in the CMIP6 Forcing Scenarios

There is strong evidence climate change will increase drought risk and severity, but these conclusions depend on the regions, seasons, and drought metrics being considered. We analyze changes in drought across the hydrologic cycle (precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff) in projections from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The multi‐model ensemble shows robust drying in the mean state across many regions and metrics by the end of the 21st century, even following the more aggressive mitigation pathways (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP2‐4.5). Regional hotspots with strong drying include western North America, Central America, Europe and the Mediterranean, the Amazon, southern Africa, China, Southeast Asia, and Australia. Compared to SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5, however, the severity of drying in the lower warming scenarios is substantially reduced and further precipitation declines in many regions are avoided. Along with drying in the mean state, the risk of the historically most extreme drought events also increases with warming, by 200–300% in some regions. Soil moisture and runoff drying in CMIP6 is more robust, spatially extensive, and severe than precipitation, indicating an important role for other temperature‐sensitive drought processes, including evapotranspiration and snow. Given the similarity in drought responses between CMIP5 and CMIP6, we speculate both generations of models are subject to similar uncertainties, including vegetation processes, model representations of precipitation, and the degree to which model responses to warming are consistent with observations. These topics should be further explored to evaluate whether CMIP6 models offer reasons to have increased confidence in drought projections.

drought↗
NASA NTRS2010

Developing Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change in the New York City Infrastructure-Shed: Process, Approach, Tools, and Strategies

While current rates of sea level rise and associated coastal flooding in the New York City region appear to be manageable by stakeholders responsible for communications, energy, transportation, and water infrastructure, projections for sea level rise and associated flooding in the future, especially those associated with rapid icemelt of the Greenland and West Antarctic Icesheets, may be beyond the range of current capacity because an extreme event might cause flooding and inundation beyond the planning and preparedness regimes. This paper describes the comprehensive process, approach, and tools developed by the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) in conjunction with the region s stakeholders who manage its critical infrastructure, much of which lies near the coast. It presents the adaptation approach and the sea-level rise and storm projections related to coastal risks developed through the stakeholder process. Climate change adaptation planning in New York City is characterized by a multi-jurisdictional stakeholder-scientist process, state-of-the-art scientific projections and mapping, and development of adaptation strategies based on a risk-management approach.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗
NASA NTRS2013

Improving Decision-Making Activities for Meningitis and Malaria

Public health professionals are increasingly concerned about the potential impact that climate variability and change can have on infectious disease. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is developing new products to increase the public health community's capacity to understand, use and demand the appropriate climate data and climate information to mitigate the public health impacts of climate on infectious disease, in particular meningitis and malaria. In this paper, we present the new and improved products that have been developed for: (i) estimating dust aerosol for forecasting risks of meningitis and (ii) for monitoring temperature and rainfall and integrating them into a vectorial capacity model for forecasting risks of malaria epidemics. We also present how the products have been integrated into a knowledge system (IRI Data Library Map Room, SERVIR) to support the use of climate and environmental information in climate-sensitive health decision-making.

parasitic diseases↗
NASA NTRS2011

Climate Hazard Assessment for Stakeholder Adaptation Planning in New York City

This paper describes a time-sensitive approach to climate change projections, developed as part of New York City's climate change adaptation process, that has provided decision support to stakeholders from 40 agencies, regional planning associations, and private companies. The approach optimizes production of projections given constraints faced by decision makers as they incorporate climate change into long-term planning and policy. New York City stakeholders, who are well-versed in risk management, helped pre-select the climate variables most likely to impact urban infrastructure, and requested a projection range rather than a single 'most likely' outcome. The climate projections approach is transferable to other regions and consistent with broader efforts to provide climate services, including impact, vulnerability, and adaptation information. The approach uses 16 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three emissions scenarios to calculate monthly change factors based on 30-year average future time slices relative to a 30- year model baseline. Projecting these model mean changes onto observed station data for New York City yields dramatic changes in the frequency of extreme events such as coastal flooding and dangerous heat events. Based on these methods, the current 1-in-10 year coastal flood is projected to occur more than once every 3 years by the end of the century, and heat events are projected to approximately triple in frequency. These frequency changes are of sufficient magnitude to merit consideration in long-term adaptation planning, even though the precise changes in extreme event frequency are highly uncertain

Horton, Radley M.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Using Machine Learning to Identify Novel Hydroclimate States

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to alter drought risk in the future. However, droughts are not uncommon or unprecedented, as documented in tree-ring-based reconstructions of the summer average Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). Using an unsupervised machine-learning method trained on these reconstructions of pre-industrial climate, we identify outliers: years in which the spatial pattern of PDSI is unusual relative to ‘normal' variability. We show that in many regions, outliers are more frequently identified in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. This trend is more pronounced when the regional drought atlases are combined into a single global dataset. By definition, outlier patterns at the 10% level are expected to occur once per decade, but from 1950 to 2000 more than 6 years per decade are identified as outliers in the global drought atlas (GDA). Extending the GDA through 2020 using an observational dataset suggests that anomalous global drought conditions are present in 80% of years in the twenty-first century. Our results indicate, without recourse to climate models, that the world is more frequently experiencing drought conditions that are highly unusual in the context of past natural climate variability.

Drought risk↗
DOE OSTI2025

Wildfire and power grid nexus in a changing climate

Global wildfire events have had increasingly severe impacts in recent years, particularly in the western USA, driven by extreme fire-weather conditions, fuel accumulation and multiple ignition sources. Wildfires sparked by power lines tend to be larger and more destructive, as they often occur during high winds, which accelerate the spread of fires. Moreover, efforts to contain wildfires frequently result in power outages, causing considerable economic disruption. Here, in this Review, we examine wildfire risks related to power-line-induced ignitions, infrastructure damage, climate-induced environmental impacts, grid operational risks, real-time grid management risks, vegetation management risks, and financial and funding risks in the context of a changing climate and their interdependence with power grid infrastructures. We then explore the resilience of power grids under wildfire threats, looking at risk analysis, prediction and mitigation strategies. The Review also shares practical insights and experiences in the USA to inform researchers, policymakers and industry professionals.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Population Aging and Heat Exposure in the 21st Century: Which U.S. Regions Are at Greatest Risk and Why?

Abstract Background and Objectives The co-occurring trends of population aging and climate change mean that rising numbers of U.S. older adults are at risk of intensifying heat exposure. We estimate county-level variations in older populations’ heat exposure in the early (1995–2014) and mid (2050) 21st century. We identify the extent to which rising exposures are attributable to climate change versus population aging. Research Design and Methods We estimate older adults’ heat exposure in 3,109 counties in the 48 contiguous U.S. states. Analyses use NASA NEX Global Daily Downscaled Product (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) climate data and county-level projections for the size and distribution of the U.S. age 69+ population. Results Population aging and rising temperatures are documented throughout the United States, with particular “hotspots” in the Deep South, Florida, and parts of the rural Midwest. Increases in heat exposure by 2050 will be especially steep in historically colder regions with large older populations in New England, the upper Midwest, and rural Mountain regions. Rising temperatures are driving exposure in historically colder regions, whereas population aging is driving exposure in historically warm southern regions. Discussion and Implications Interventions to address the impacts of temperature extremes on older adult well-being should consider the geographic distribution and drivers of this exposure. In historically cooler areas where climate change is driving exposures, investments in warning systems may be productive, whereas investments in health care and social services infrastructures are essential in historically hot regions where exposures are driven by population aging.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mitigating Impact Through Community-Engaged Flood Modeling

Urban pluvial flooding poses a growing threat to the city of Baltimore, driven by heavy rainfall, increased impervious area, and aging infrastructure. Adapting to the risks posed by pluvial flooding is critical for building greater climate resiliency in Baltimore's Inner Harbor Watershed. This study addresses these challenges through community-informed decision analysis, which uses hydrologic modeling and optimization tools to identify robust flooding adaptation pathways. We will collaborate with community partners to identify key concerns and objectives regarding flooding. These concerns have been purposefully built in to a combined surface-subsurface dynamic flow simulation model. Model outputs are used to identify flooding locations within the Inner Harbor, and to test adaptation methods. Machine learning will be used search for solutions which meet diverse environmental, financial, and social goals, and solution performance will be examined under a wide range of potential future climatic conditions and integrated with an adaptive planning approach. This novel set of adaptation pathways will enhance the City's capacity to respond to evolving pluvial flood risk.

climate resilience↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assisted migration in a warmer and drier climate: less climate buffering capacity, less facilitation and more fires at temperate latitudes?

Assisted tree migration has been proposed as a conceptual solution to mitigate lags in biotic responses to anthropogenic climate change. The rationale behind this concept is that tree species currently growing under warmer and drier climates will be more resistant and resilient to the new climatic conditions than tree species naturally growing in currently wetter and colder climates. However, we hypothesize that, by being more stress‐tolerant to warmer and drier conditions, translocated species should exhibit different functional attributes, which could induce important ecological and societal costs and overcome the desired benefits of maintaining wood production and other ecosystem services. We used principal component analysis (PCA) to analyze variation in seven traits of 106 tree and tall shrub species from contrasting latitudinal distributions in western North America and Europe to predict the potential functional changes of forest ecosystems due to the translocation of tree species from low to high latitudes. We show that species from both continents differed primarily by their position on the leaf economy spectrum (LES) and their size traits. Even though, in Europe, differences in LES were significantly correlated to species southern latitudinal positions, in both continents differences in size traits were significantly correlated to latitude. These results suggest that assisted migration by translocating more conservative species of shorter stature in currently cooler climates should decrease the buffering capacity of forest canopies, decrease facilitation for understory species, and increase wildfire risks, whose effects have the potential to accelerate climate warming through negative atmospheric feedback processes. As an alternative solution to assisted migration that may accelerate rather than mitigate climate change, we recommend that foresters gradually diversify the vertical structure and layering of the existing forest canopy to maintain a sustainable water cycle and energy balance between the soil, the tree and the atmosphere without increasing the wildfire risk.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data Acquisition System Selection and Calibration of Resistive Moisture Content Measurements for Large-Scale Field Studies in Cold Climate Residential Building Envelope Performance

The residential building stock built before the energy codes were enforced has several significant inefficiency problems in terms of insulation and air leakage. To decrease these inefficiencies, building retrofits are necessary. However, if the envelope is not appropriately designed, excessive accumulation of moisture content and thus mold formation and decay inside the envelope layers can be a vital problem. This risk becomes higher, especially in extreme climate conditions such as cold winters and hot and humid summers as in some northern regions of the U.S. Field studies are essential to test the long-term hygrothermal performance of building envelopes. Although in-situ temperature, RH, and heat flux measurements are straightforward, moisture content measurements are cumbersome. Mainly, because of the heterogeneous nature of the wood materials, deviations and nonuniformities within the materials are unavoidable. Resistance measurements are one of the oldest methods used to measure the moisture content of wood and other building materials. In large-scale studies, it is commonly preferred to use multi-purpose data acquisition systems (DAQ) and custom-made or prefabricated moisture pins to measure the electrical resistance (and thus moisture content) of critical building materials. These multi-purpose DAQ systems generally provide lower costs and offer more flexibility. However, these systems require calibration and fine-tuning to achieve accurate moisture content measurements. A large-scale, two-year-long field study was conducted in northern Minnesota to monitor the hygrothermal performance of residential retrofit wall systems in cold climates. Two base case walls and sixteen different wall treatments were tested. Moisture contents were measured at various layers in each wall treatment using 85 sets of moisture pins. This paper focuses on the overall approach, fabrication, and calibration methodology for the combination of custom-made moisture pins and a multi-purpose DAQ. The aim is to directly use the low-excitation multi-purpose DAQ without any extra voltage regulator. A half-bridge circuit is used to measure wood resistance with 4V excitation voltage and 100 kΩ and 500 kΩ reference resistors. The system is calibrated for four different materials: Douglas fir, lodgepole pine, western red cedar, and oriented strand board (OSB). Calibration experiments were done under controlled conditions in 50% and 65% RH test chambers. Resistance-based moisture content calibration curves are obtained for each species. Results show that higher reference resistors provided better calibration curves for lower excitation voltages.

Desjarlais, Andre Omer↗
DOE OSTI2022

Clean Indoor Air and Lower Environmental Impacts: Heat Recovery Ventilation in Cold Climates

Over half of Alaska homes are at risk of poor indoor air quality, which increases the risk of respiratory and other illnesses for people and animals. Heat recovery ventilators (HRVs) provide warm, fresh air to a building interior while minimizing energy use. They can be programmed to provide varying amounts of fresh air to ensure adequate ventilation for occupants and can be configured to filter air during wildfires or other events. In addition to improving the safety of indoor air and extending the life of a building, HRVs can improve surrounding outdoor air because they reduce the amount of fossil fuels needed to heat a building. Recent research by CCHRC has focused on lowering barriers to using HRVs in cold climates through laboratory evaluations and homeowner education. This poster will cover data on indoor air quality in Alaska, results of CCHRC research, and future research questions.

buildings↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of Water-Energy Issues for Nuclear Power with Industry Perspective

The water-energy nexus is a dynamic, ever evolving challenge involving technological changes, regulatory updates, economic constraints, environmental issues, and political attributes. This report expands on a previous report that gave an initial assessment of the water-energy nexus challenges facing the U.S. commercial industry. This follow-up report provides analysis and insights from stakeholder interviews focusing on the issues faced by the U.S. commercial nuclear energy industry within the water-energy nexus space. This report updates and expand the “Cooling Water Issues and Opportunities at U.S. Nuclear Power Plants” This report includes analysis on water withdrawal and consumption by operating nuclear reactors, evolving policy risks that could impact the operation of the existing commercial nuclear fleet, implications of water markets, trading and water rights, the changing energy grid, progressing environmental risks (including analysis on the possible impact of climate change on water availability and nuclear power plant performance), and opportunities to reduce water related risk. The feedback from the stakeholders’ interviews helps incorporate viewpoints from within the nuclear and related industry that can lack representation in other research areas, without constituting a comprehensive opinion survey. Stakeholders interviewed include nuclear power plants operators, water treatment providers, developers, and vendors of reactor technologies.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Climate change alters flood magnitudes and mechanisms in climatically-diverse headwaters across the northwestern United States

Abstract Flooding caused by high streamflow events poses great risk around the world and is projected to increase under climate change. This paper assesses how climate change will alter high streamflow events by changing both the prevalence of different driving mechanisms (i.e. ‘flood generating processes’) and the magnitude of differently generated floods. We present an analysis of simulated changes in high streamflow events in selected basins in the hydroclimatically diverse Pacific Northwestern United States, classifying the events according to their mechanism. We then compare how the different classes of events respond to changes in climate at the annual scale. In a warmer future, high flow events will be caused less frequently by snowmelt and more frequently by precipitation events. Also, precipitation-driven high flow events are more sensitive to increases in precipitation than are snowmelt-driven high flow events, so the combination of the increase in both frequency and magnitude of precipitation-driven high flow events leads to higher flood likelihood than under each change alone. Our comparison of the results from two emissions pathways shows that a reduction in global emissions will limit the increase in magnitude and prevalence of these precipitation-driven events.

S Chegwidden, Oriana (ORCID:0000000313763835)↗