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At least 307 records · Page 17

Statistics Analysis of the Uncertainties in Cloud Optical Depth Retrievals Caused by Three-Dimensional Radiative Effects

This paper presents a simple approach to estimate the uncertainties that arise in satellite retrievals of cloud optical depth when the retrievals use one-dimensional radiative transfer theory for heterogeneous clouds that have variations in all three dimensions. For the first time, preliminary error bounds are set to estimate the uncertainty of cloud optical depth retrievals. These estimates can help us better understand the nature of uncertainties that three-dimensional effects can introduce into retrievals of this important product of the MODIS instrument. The probability distribution of resulting retrieval errors is examined through theoretical simulations of shortwave cloud reflection for a wide variety of cloud fields. The results are used to illustrate how retrieval uncertainties change with observable and known parameters, such as solar elevation or cloud brightness. Furthermore, the results indicate that a tendency observed in an earlier study, clouds appearing thicker for oblique sun, is indeed caused by three-dimensional radiative effects.

Varnai, Tamas↗

Quantifying structural errors in cloud condensation nuclei activity from reduced representation of aerosol size distributions

Aerosol effects on clouds and radiation are the dominant contribution to uncertainty in radiative forcing relative to the pre-industrial atmosphere. While previous studies have assessed the impact of parametric uncertainty on modeled forcing, structural errors from the numerical representation of particle distributions have not been well quantified. Here we present a framework for quantifying error in aerosol size distributions and cloud condensation nuclei activity, which we apply to the widely used 4-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4). Box model predictions from the MAM4 are evaluated against the Particle Monte Carlo Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (PartMC-MOSAIC), a benchmark model that tracks the evolution of individual particles. We show that size distributions simulated by MAM4 diverge from those simulated by PartMC-MOSAIC after only a few hours of aging by condensation and coagulation in polluted conditions, which leads to large errors in modeled cloud condensation nuclei concentrations. We find that differences between MAM4 and PartMC-MOSAIC are largest under polluted conditions, where the size distribution evolves rapidly though aging by condensation of semi-volatile substances and coagulation among particles. These findings suggest that structural error in modeled aerosol properties contributes to the large inter-model variability in aerosol radiative forcing.

Fierce, Laura M.↗

Simulations of the seasonal polar caps on Mars

One of the most puzzling mysteries about the planet Mars is the hemispherical asymmetry in the polar caps. Every spring the seasonal polar cap of CO2 recedes until the end of summer, when only a small part, the residual polar cap, remains. During the year that Viking observed Mars, the residual polar cap was composed of water ice in the Northern Hemisphere (Kieffer et al., Science, 194, 1341, 1976), but was primarily carbon dioxide ice in the Southern Hemisphere (Kieffer, J. Geophys. Res., 84, 8263, 1979). Scientists have sought to explain this asymmetry by modeling observations of the latitudinal recession of the polar cap and seasonal variations in atmospheric pressure (since the seasonal polar caps are primarily frozen atmosphere, they are directly related to changes in atmospheric mass). These models reproduce most aspects of the observed annual variation in atmospheric pressure fairly accurately. Furthermore, the predicted latitudinal recession of the northern polar cap in the spring agrees well with observations, including the fact that CO2 ice is predicted to completely sublime away. However, these models all predict that the carbon dioxide ice will also sublime away during the summer in the Southern Hemisphere, unlike what is observed. It is shown here how the radiative effects of ozone, clouds, and airborne dust, light penetration into and through the polar cap, and the dependence of albedo on solar zenith angle affect CO2 ice formation and sublimation, and how they help explain the hemispherical asymmetry in the residual polar caps. These effects have not been studied with prior polar cap models. The combination of the effects of solar zenith angle on albedo and the radiative effects of clouds and dust act to extend the lifetime of CO2 ice on the south pole relatively more than on the north pole, possibly explaining the hemispherical asymmetry in the residual polar caps without the need of a hemispherical asymmetry in polar cap albedo. This does not imply that a hemispherical asymmetry in polar cap albedo does not exist, but that one is not necessary. Observations of the regression of the polar caps and the annual cycle in atmospheric pressure are reproduced fairly well by the model, as shown in the figures, although further improvement is needed. When CO2 ice is retained at the south pole, the model predictions of the annual cycle in atmospheric pressure have a phase shift relative to the data, no matter what model input parameters are used. We are investigating other processes not included in prior polar cap models.

Lindner, Bernhard Lee↗

The Prospect for Remote Sensing of Cirrus Clouds with a Submillimeter-Wave Spectrometer

Given the substantial radiative effects of cirrus clouds and the need to validate cirrus cloud mass in climate models, it is important to measure the global distribution of cirrus properties with satellite remote sensing. Existing cirrus remote sensing techniques, such as solar reflectance methods, measure cirrus ice water path (IWP) rather indirectly and with limited accuracy. Submillimeter/wave radiometry is an independent method of cirrus remote sensing based on ice particles scattering the upwelling radiance emitted by the lower atmosphere. A new aircraft instrument, the Far Infrared Sensor for Cirrus (FIRSC), is described. The FIRSC employs a Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS). which measures the upwelling radiance across the whole submillimeter region (0.1 1.0-mm wavelength). This wide spectral coverage gives high sensitivity to most cirrus particle sizes and allows accurate determination of the characteristic particle size. Radiative transfer modeling is performed to analyze the capabilities of the submillimeter FTS technique. A linear inversion analysis is done to show that cirrus IWP, particle size, and upper-tropospheric temperature and water vapor may be accurately measured, A nonlinear statistical algorithm is developed using a database of 20000 spectra simulated by randomly varying most relevant cirrus and atmospheric parameters. An empirical orthogonal function analysis reduces the 500-point spectrum (20 - 70/cm) to 15 "pseudo-channels" that are then input to a neural network to retrieve cirrus IWP and median particle diameter. A Monte Carlo accuracy study is performed with simulated spectra having realistic noise. The retrieval errors are low for IWP (rms less than a factor of 1.5) and for particle sizes (rins less than 30%) for IWP greater than 5 g/sq m and a wide range of median particle sizes. This detailed modeling indicates that there is good potential to accurately measure cirrus properties with a submillimeter FTS.

Evans, K. Franklin↗

Assessing the WRF-Solar Model Performance Using Satellite-Derived Irradiance from the National Solar Radiation Database

Abstract WRF-Solar is a numerical weather prediction model specifically designed to meet the increasing demand for accurate solar irradiance forecasting. The model provides flexibility in the representation of the aerosol–cloud–radiation processes. This flexibility can be argued to make it more difficult to improve the model’s performance because of the necessity of inspecting different configurations. To alleviate this situation, WRF-Solar has a reference configuration to use as a benchmark in sensitivity experiments. However, the scarcity of high-quality ground observations is a handicap to accurately quantify the model performance. An alternative to ground observations are satellite irradiance retrievals. Herein we analyze the adequacy of the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to validate the WRF-Solar performance using high-quality global horizontal irradiance (GHI) observations across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Based on the sufficient performance of NSRDB, we further analyze the WRF-Solar forecast errors across the CONUS, the growth of the forecasting errors as a function of the lead time, and sensitivities to the grid spacing and the representation of the radiative effects of unresolved clouds. Our results based on WRF-Solar forecasts spanning 2018 reveal a 7% median degradation of the mean absolute error (MAE) from the first to the second daytime period. Reducing the grid spacing from 9 to 3 km leads to a 4% improvement in the MAE, whereas activating the radiative effects of unresolved clouds is desirable over most of the CONUS even at 3 km of grid spacing. A systematic overestimation of the GHI is found. These results illustrate the potential of GHI retrievals to contribute to increasing the WRF-Solar performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A New Way to Measure Cirrus Ice Water Content by Using Ice Raman Scatter with Raman Lidar

High and cold cirrus clouds mainly contain irregular ice crystals, such as, columns, hexagonal plates, bullet rosettes, and dendrites, and have different impacts on the climate system than low-level clouds, such as stratus, stratocumulus, and cumulus. The radiative effects of cirrus clouds on the current and future climate depend strongly on cirrus cloud microphysical properties including ice water content (IWC) and ice crystal sizes, which are mostly an unknown aspect of cinus clouds. Because of the natural complexity of cirrus clouds and their high locations, it is a challenging task to get them accurately by both remote sensing and in situ sampling. This study presents a new method to remotely sense cirrus microphysical properties by using ice Raman scatter with a Raman lidar. The intensity of Raman scattering is fundamentally proportional to the number of molecules involved. Therefore, ice Raman scattering signal provides a more direct way to measure IWC than other remote sensing methods. Case studies show that this method has the potential to provide essential information of cirrus microphysical properties to study cloud physical processes in cirrus clouds.

Wang, Zhien↗

The Effects of Water Vapor and Clouds on the Spectral Distribution of Solar Radiation at the...

During the Subsonic Contrail and Cloud Effect Special Study (SUCCESS) a Solar Spectral Flux Radiometer was deployed at the surface in a zenith observing position. The instrument measured the solar spectral downwelling irradiance between 350 and 2500 nm with 10 nm resolution. From April 12 through April 29 approximately 18000 spectra were acquired, under a variety of meteorological conditions including cloud free, cirrus, Stearns, and cumulonimbus clouds. This study focuses on the effect of cirrus and cirrus contrails on the spectral distribution of solar irradiance at the surface and on inferring cirrus properties from their spectral transmittance. The observations have also proven to be useful for comparing the solar spectral irradiance measurements with model predictions, and in particular, for inferring the amount of solar radiation absorbed in the clear and cloudy atmosphere.

Pilewskie, P.↗

Impact of Turbulence Representation on the Relationship Between Cloud Feedback and Aerosol‐Cloud Interaction in an E3SMv2 Perturbed Parameter Ensemble

Recent studies reveal an anti‐correlation between global cloud feedback (CF) and effective radiative forcing due to aerosol‐cloud interaction (ERFaci) in Earth system models, but the physical mechanisms underlying it remain uncertain. Here we investigate how different turbulence representations contribute to this relationship over the global ocean using an ensemble of Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 simulations with perturbed turbulence parameters. The anti‐correlation appears only in the tropical ascent regime. In the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude and high latitude regimes, there is no significant correlation, and in the tropical marine low cloud and Southern Ocean regimes, the correlation is positive. These opposite correlations are primarily driven by opposing CF responses to perturbed parameters. We find that the mean‐state turbulent mixing strength affects both CF and ERFaci, enabling strong correlations in certain regimes. This study highlights the complex linkages between CF and ERFaci through turbulent processes across diverse cloud regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Parameterization of cloud effects on the absorption of solar radiation

A radiation parameterization for the NASA Goddard climate model was developed, tested, and implemented. Interactive and off-hire experiments with the climate model to determine the limitations of the present parameterization scheme are summarized. The parameterization of Cloud absorption in terms of solar zeith angle, column water vapors about the cloud top, and cloud liquid water content is discussed.

Davies, R.↗

Study of the Radiative Properties of Inhomogeneous Stratocumulus Clouds

Clouds play an important role in the radiation budget of the atmosphere. A good understanding of how clouds interact with solar radiation is necessary when considering their effects in both general circulation models and climate models. This study examined the radiative properties of clouds in both an inhomogeneous cloud system, and a simplified cloud system through the use of a Monte Carlo model. The purpose was to become more familiar with the radiative properties of clouds, especially absorption, and to investigate the excess absorption of solar radiation from observations over that calculated from theory. The first cloud system indicated that the absorptance actually decreased as the cloud's inhomogeneity increased, and that cloud forcing does not indicate any changes. The simplified cloud system looked at two different cases of absorption of solar radiation in the cloud. The absorptances calculated from the Monte Carlo is compared to a correction method for calculating absorptances and found that the method can over or underestimate absorptances at cloud edges. Also the cloud edge effects due to solar radiation points to a possibility of overestimating the retrieved optical depth at the edge, and indicates a possible way to correct for it. The effective cloud fraction (Ne) for a long time has been calculated from a cloud's reflectance. From the reflectance it has been observed that the N, for most cloud geometries is greater than the actual cloud fraction (Nc) making a cloud appear wider than it is optically. Recent studies we have performed used a Monte Carlo model to calculate the N, of a cloud using not only the reflectance but also the absorptance. The derived Ne's from the absorptance in some of the Monte Carlo runs did not give the same results as derived from the reflectance. This study also examined the inhomogeneity of clouds to find a relationship between larger and smaller scales, or wavelengths, of the cloud. Both Fourier transforms and wavelet transforms were used to analyze the liquid water content of marine stratocumulus clouds taken during the ASTEX project. From the analysis it was found that the energy in the cloud is not uniformly distributed but is greater at the larger scales than at the smaller scales. This was determined by examining the slope of the power spectrum, and by comparing the variability at two scales from a wavelet analysis.

Batey, Michael↗

Reducing Southern Ocean Shortwave Radiation Errors in the ERA5 Reanalysis with Machine Learning and 25 Years of Surface Observations

Earth system models struggle to simulate clouds and their radiative effects over the Southern Ocean, partly due to a lack of measurements and targeted cloud microphysics knowledge. We have evaluated biases of downwelling shortwave radiation in the ERA5 climate reanalysis using 25 years (1995–2019) of summertime surface measurements, collected on the Research and Supply Vessel (RSV) Aurora Australis, the Research Vessel (R/V) Investigator, and at Macquarie Island. During October–March daylight hours, the ERA5 simulation of SW down exhibited large errors (mean bias = 54 W m -2 , mean absolute error = 82 W m -2 , root-mean-square error = 132 W m -2 , and R 2 = 0.71). To determine whether we could improve these statistics, we bypassed ERA5’s radiative transfer model for SW down with machine learning–based models using a number of ERA5’s gridscale meteorological variables as predictors. These models were trained and tested with the surface measurements of SW down using a 10-fold shuffle split. An extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and a random forest–based model setup had the best performance relative to ERA5, both with a near complete reduction of the mean bias error, a decrease in the mean absolute error and root-mean-square error by 25% ± 3%, and an increase in the R 2 value of 5% ± 1% over the 10 splits. Large improvements occurred at higher latitudes and cyclone cold sectors, where ERA5 performed most poorly. We further interpret our methods using Shapley additive explanations. Our results indicate that data-driven techniques could have an important role in simulating surface radiation fluxes and in improving reanalysis products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development, improvement and application of atmospheric radiative transfer models for prediction of the climatic effects of clouds and aerosols

The demands of accurate predictions of radiative transfer for climate applications are well-documented. While much effort is being devoted to evaluating the accuracy of the GCM radiative transfer schemes, the problem of developing accurate, computationally efficient schemes for climate models still remains. This paper discusses our efforts in developing accurate and fast computational methods for global and regional climate models.

Bergstrom, Robert W.↗

Atmospheric Depolarization Lidar Experimental Receiver: A Space Shuttle Hitchhiker Payload

Development work is underway at the Goddard Space Flight Center to construct a depolarization measuring atmospheric lidar receiver. The Atmospheric Lidar (AL) is tentatively scheduled to fly on the Space Shuttle in a late-1999 time frame. The AL will fly in conjunction with the Shuttle Laser Altimeter (SLA) and the Infrared Spectral Imaging Radiometer (ISIR) to provide a comprehensive package of atmospheric aerosol and cloud information. The AL operates in conjunction with the SLA laser transmitter and measures profiles of atmospheric backscatter at 532 nm. The receiver system discriminates between the parallel and perpendicular polarizations of the backscattered signal, thus providing depolarization ratios for scattering from clouds. The lidar receiver also provides cloud height and thickness measurements to complement the brightness temperature measurements generated by the ISIR thermal imager. The function of the AL is twofold. The primary function is to provide range-resolved measurements of atmospheric aerosol backscatter and depolarization ratio at 532 nm with 75 m vertical resolution. The scientific purpose of these measurements is to determine composition of clouds based on the depolarization ratio (i.e cloud content is water or ice), to determine cloud height and thickness, and to gain further understanding of the global distribution of aerosols. This information, when coupled with the cloud brightness measured by the ISIR thermal imager will provide a significant amount of information on cloud composition and radiative effects, particularly for cirrus and sub-visual cirrus clouds. A secondary function of the AL is to serve as an in-space test bed for lidar technology advancements, including a fully fiber-coupled receiver and photon counting from space. In addition, the data obtained by the AL will be used to develop software for the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) flight mission.

McGill, Matthew J.↗

Cloudiness and the radiation budget

The problem of obtaining data for quantification of the effects of clouds on radiation budget measurements is discussed. Areas considered include the relationship between observed cloud characteristics and model predicted characteristics and selection of an angular distribution function for conversion of scanning radiometer radiance to irradiance. Storage of meteorological satellite data related to cloud-radiation interactions is discussed.

Source record↗

Aerosol Direct Radiative Effect at the Top of the Atmosphere Over Cloud Free Ocean Derived from Four Years of MODIS Data

A four year record of MODIS spaceborne data provides a new measurement tool to assess the aerosol direct radiative effect at the top of the atmosphere. MODIS derives the aerosol optical thickness and microphysical properties from the scattered sunlight at 0.55-2.1 microns. The monthly MODIS data used here are accumulated measurements across a wide range of view and scattering angles and represent the aerosol s spectrally resolved angular properties. We use these data consistently to compute with estimated accuracy of +/-0.6W/sq m the reflected sunlight by the aerosol over global oceans in cloud free conditions. The MODIS high spatial resolution (0.5 km) allows observation of the aerosol impact between clouds that can be missed by other sensors with larger footprints. We found that over the clear-sky global ocean the aerosol reflected 5.3+/-0.6W/sq m with an average radiative efficiency of 49+/-2W/sq m per unit optical thickness. The seasonal and regional distribution of the aerosol radiative effects are discussed. The analysis adds a new measurement perspective to a climate change problem dominated so far by models.

Remer, L. A.↗

Cirrus Parameter Retrieval by Combined Analysis of Spectral Thermal Infrared and Lidar Sensing from Aircraft and Space

The distribution, radiative and microphysical parameters of cirrus clouds are an important factor for cloud effects on the global radiation balance and climate. Multispectral thermal infrared observation are the most significant method used to remote sense cirrus parameter from current and planned passive satellite observations. Passive sensing alone has the limitation that both the cloud radiative temperature, or height, and the spectral emissivity must be derived in the analysis. Factors such as multiple cloud laying, which is very common, are known to introduce ambiguities in results. The addition of lidar cloud height structure measurements significantly improves retrievals. Such active/passive observations have been applied from the NASA ER-2 high altitude remote sensing aircraft since 1983. Applications include the study of the effective effective particle size of cirrus and application toward remote sensing of the ice/water content of cirrus clouds in addition to radiative parameters. Limitations, accuracy and examples of retrievals are presented. In 1997 a space shuttle hitch hiker experiment was flown which included a new technology Infrared Spectral Imaging Radiometer and a laser altimeter for direct cloud height measurements. A 30 orbit data set to test global application of combined spectral infrared and laser height measurements were obtained. Initial results for cirrus analysis from the shuttle experiment will also be presented.

Spinhirne, James D.↗

Environmental effects of an impact-generated dust cloud - Implications for the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinctions

A model of the evolution and radiative effects of a debris cloud from a hypothesized impact event at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary suggests that the cloud could have reduced the amount of light at the earth's surface below that required for photosynthesis for several months and, for a somewhat shorter interval, even below that needed for many animals to see. For 6 months to 1 year, the surface would cool; the oceans could cool only a few degrees Celsius at most, but the continents might cool a maximum of 40 Kelvin. Extinctions in the ocean may have been caused primarily by the temporary cessation of photosynthesis, but those on land may have been primarily induced by a combination of lowered temperatures and reduced light.

Pollack, J. B.↗