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The NASA Continuous Risk Management Process

As an intern this summer in the GRC Risk Management Office, I have become familiar with the NASA Continuous Risk Management Process. In this process, risk is considered in terms of the probability that an undesired event will occur and the impact of the event, should it occur (ref., NASA-NPG: 7120.5). Risk management belongs in every part of every project and should be ongoing from start to finish. Another key point is that a risk is not a problem until it has happened. With that in mind, there is a six step cycle for continuous risk management that prevents risks from becoming problems. The steps are: identify, analyze, plan, track, control, and communicate & document. Incorporated in the first step are several methods to identify risks such as brainstorming and using lessons learned. Once a risk is identified, a risk statement is made on a risk information sheet consisting of a single condition and one or more consequences. There can also be a context section where the risk is explained in more detail. Additionally there are three main goals of analyzing a risk, which are evaluate, classify, and prioritize. Here is where a value is given to the attributes of a risk &e., probability, impact, and timeframe) based on a multi-level classification system (e.g., low, medium, high). It is important to keep in mind that the definitions of these levels are probably different for each project. Furthermore the risks can be combined into groups. Then, the risks are prioritized to see what risk is necessary to mitigate first. After the risks are analyzed, a plan is made to mitigate as many risks as feasible. Each risk should be assigned to someone in the project with knowledge in the area of the risk. Then the possible approaches to choose from are: research, accept, watch, or mitigate. Next, all risks, mitigated or not, are tracked either individually or in groups. As the plan is executed, risks are re-evaluated, and the attribute values are adjusted as necessary. Metrics are established and monitored as tools for risk tracking. Also a trigger or threshold should be set on the metric data that indicates when an action is needed. Results of this tracking are usually evaluated and reported in a relevant format at weekly or monthly meetings. Choosing controls is the subsequent step, which involves the effects of the tracking. The three basic controls are: close, continue tracking, and re- plan. Finally communicate & document is the last step, but occurs throughout the process. It is vital that main risks, plans, changes, and progress are known by everyone in the project. A good way to keep everyone updated and inform other projects of common issues is by thoroughly documenting project risks. NASA sees value in risk management and believes that projects have greater probability or success by using the NASA Continuous Risk Management Process.

Pokorny, Frank M.↗

Consequences of Slot Transactions on Airport Congestion and Environmental Protection

Recent trends in the liberalization of market access by many commercial airlines have opened the skies to virtually unlimited flights between many countries. However, this liberalization is stultified by the lack of airport capacity to accommodate the many flights that are generated by demand for capacity. Accordingly, the allocation of slots for open skies airlines remain dependent on the expansion and effective management of airport capacity. This article examines the ramifications of slot allocation on traffic peaking at airports and environmental concerns, which may emerge with this activity.

Abeyratne, Ruwantissa I.R.↗

Improved PV System Control Strategies to Reduce Power Management Costs in Nanogrids

An improved PV system control method is proposed to reduce nanogrid operation costs in this paper. A model including it various components such as photovoltaic (PV) systems, energy storage systems (ESSs), gateways, and household loads is considered with the constraints of the ESS, PV irradiance from real data, and household load. We designed an optimal economic dispatch strategy with an improved PV system control method. Combining the proposed optimal economic dispatch and PV system control strategies, it can improve the control performance for both transient and steady-state responses thereby enabling the maximum power to be extracted from the PV. Consequently, the PV power is maximized, which allows the ESS to use less power and sell the surplus to external power sources, which means the proposed method decreases the nanogrid operation costs. Furthermore, this performance is verified via nanogrid simulations and PV experimental kit.

PV system control↗

Data Definition Management for Orion Backup Flight Software

The NASA developed Core Flight System (cFS) is a reusable software architecture that has been used on multiple spaceflight missions. Missions using cFS can reuse code from other missions, as well as leverage deployment to similar computer architectures. The Orion Backup Flight Software (BFS) team selected cFS as the architecture to be used on the program, and this presentation will describe some design choices we made, and the consequences of those decisions.

CFS↗

Central atlantic regional ecological test site: A prototype regional environmental information system, volume 1

The Central Atlantic Regional Ecological Test Site (CARETS) project was a demonstration project for introducing data from Landsat and high-altitude aircraft sensors into regional land planning and management. This report summarizes the CARETS project results and describes its output of maps, reports, computer tapes, and other products. CARETS used a geographic information system model under which land use maps were prepared from sensor data, then digitized, processed, and linked to other environmental and social data sets, and to environmental consequences such as air pollution, stream runoff, local climatic factors, and coastal erosion. Landsat data showed the test region in 1972 to be nine percent urban and built-up land, 38 percent agriculture, 50 percent forest, three percent nonforested wetlands, and less than one percent barren land, exclusive of water-covered areas. User surveys, conferences, and workshops involving 65 agencies facilitated widespread distribution of data products and produced evaluations concerning their usefulness. We found a heterogeneous user community with diverse information needs largely preferring aerial photographs rather than satellite multispectral scanner data. Among project recommendations are establishment of a network of regional land resource information centers, working toward improved compatibility of Federal, State and local information programs supportive of land use decisions.

Land use↗

Biomedical Results of the Space Shuttle Program

The Space Shuttle Program (SSP), which was triumphantly completed by the flight of STS-135 on July 21, 2011, holds a special place in the history of Human Space Exploration. For the first time, a vehicle was built that could perform multiple flights in space and return to Earth. Many important questions regarding the ability of humans to adapt and function in space have been answered during the 30 years since the SSP was launched and many lessons have been learned. The multidisciplinary studies conducted during this program allowed NASA to define the normal responses and potential pathologic changes of the major physiological systems to short-duration space flights. The program significantly contributed to the development of in-flight medical care capabilities and multiple countermeasures. A comprehensive system of preflight, in-flight, and post-flight monitoring of the astronauts was built. It is important to emphasize that the SSP was essential for building the International Space Station (ISS) that significantly expanded the boundaries of space research, allowing for planning of long-term near-terrestrial and extraterrestrial missions. As the program was coming to completion, a decision was made by the NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center Human Research Program senior management to summarize the medico-biological results of the SSP in one comprehensive edition. This was quite an ambitious goal. It required selection of a group of experts in different areas to become the chapters lead authors. These experts were charged with the task of reviewing what was learned in the consequent fields to make the chapters a comprehensive source of information for planning of research, operational activities, and medical care for future missions. We hope that we were able to accomplish this goal and the book will serve as a reliable reference edition for the international space biomedicine community, for new generation of space researchers and Flight Surgeons, as well as for all those interested in space exploration. As space exploration continues, the major question of whether humans are capable of adapting to long-term presence and adequately functioning in space habitats will remain open for a long time. we expect that the comprehensive review of the medico-biological results of the SSP along with the data collected during the missions on the space stations (the Russian space station _Mir_ and ISS) provides a good starting point in seeking the answer to this question.

Diana Risin↗

Poster: Responsible Adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Electric Grid Operations

The rapid integration of artificial intelligence (AI) in the utility transmission and distribution (T&D) sector is revolutionizing traditional grid management practices. As utilities encounter complexities from evolving consumer behaviors and energy integration, AI becomes a critical solution for enhancing grid monitoring, fault detection, and operational optimization. However, increased reliance on interconnected technologies introduces significant cybersecurity risks, regulatory compliance challenges, and human factors concerns. This study proposes a strategic, responsible and consequence-driven approach to AI implementation, examining the dual nature of AI adoption by highlighting its transformative benefits for utilities and associated risks. It provides utilities with a framework for evaluating AI integration, enabling them to navigate challenges and capitalize on opportunities to achieve greater reliability, efficiency, and resilience in an increasingly complex energy landscape.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

Current decision making involves numerous possible combinations of technology elements, safety and health issues, operational aspects and process considerations to satisfy program goals. Identifying potential risk considerations as part of the management decision making process provides additional tools to make more informed management decision. Adapting and using risk assessment methodologies can generate new perspectives on various risk and safety concerns that are not immediately apparent. Safety and operational risks can be identified and final decisions can balance these considerations with cost and schedule risks. Additional assessments can also show likelihood of event occurrence and event consequence to provide a more informed basis for decision making, as well as cost effective mitigation strategies. Methodologies available to perform Risk Assessments range from qualitative identification of risk potential, to detailed assessments where quantitative probabilities are calculated. Methodology used should be based on factors that include: 1) type of industry and industry standards, 2) tasks, tools, and environment 3) type and availability of data and 4) industry views and requirements regarding risk & reliability. Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures.

DeMott, D. L.↗

Capacity Management and Walkdown During LEO Cycling of Nickel-Hydrogen Cells and Batteries

This viewgraph presentation discusses the following topics: 1) Capacity walkdown defined and illustrated; 2) Importance of capacity walkdown: 3) Four approaches to understanding the phenomenon - Pressure Trend, Charging Curve, Electrochemical Voltage Spectroscopy, and Destructive Physical Analysis Studies; 4) Results of the interrelated studies; 5) Suggested mechanism for capacity walkdown; and 6) Charging protocols to avoid the problem. In summary: 1) capacity walkdown is a consequence of the inability to maintain a high state of charge; 2) Capacity loss is typically 35% which would be expected by the valence difference between gamma and beta nickel oxyhydroxide; 3) Cycling at -5 degrees facilitates the formation of the gamma phase; 4) Excessive overcharge can also facilitate gamma phase formation at the expense of cycle life; and 5) Conditions can now be suggested to help minimize capacity walkdown.

Thaller, Lawrence H.↗

Interparticle Characterization of Mechanical Biomass Particle-Particle and Particle-Wall Interactions

The biomass materials industry faces significant challenges in managing material variability and its impact on storage and handling systems. Physical properties such as moisture content, particle size, and density fluctuate considerably, leading to operational issues like bridging and ratholing that disrupt material flow. These variations create a complex cascade effect throughout the process chain, affecting transportation, storage, and conversion processes. The economic consequences of this variability manifest in increased operational costs, maintenance requirements, and system downtime. Environmental factors further complicate the situation, as weather conditions and seasonal availability influence material properties and system performance. Engineers employ specialized equipment design, material characterization protocols, and pre-processing steps like size reduction and homogenization to address these challenges. A critical knowledge gap exists between continuous-level constitutive models and particle-scale behavior. This project developed a novel device to quantify interparticle mechanics between biomass particles, measuring friction and adhesion forces between particles and wall materials. The research focused on corn stover and southern pine forest residue, creating a comprehensive database of particle interactions. This breakthrough enables direct application in particle-based computational modeling, advancing the field's understanding of biomass handling characteristics and supporting the development of more reliable and efficient storage and handling systems. The project's outcomes contribute significantly to understanding biomass's mechanical and flow characteristics, particularly how variability at the particle level affects larger-scale handling operations. This knowledge is crucial for engineering feedstock supply systems that consistently meet quality and cost specifications for various conversion processes. The innovative experimental setup developed through this research represents a significant advancement in biomass characterization methodology. Providing precise measurements of particle-level interactions establishes a foundation for more accurate predictive modeling of bulk material behavior. This enhanced understanding of fundamental particle mechanics enables engineers to anticipate better and address handling challenges before they manifest in full-scale operations. This research opens new avenues for optimizing biomass handling systems through data-driven design approaches. The comprehensive database of particle interactions serves as a valuable resource for future research and development efforts, potentially leading to more efficient and cost-effective biomass processing solutions. This advancement in particle-level mechanics could revolutionize how biomass handling systems are designed and operated, contributing to more sustainable and reliable renewable energy production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A Cognitive Walkthrough of Multiple Drone Delivery Operations

Advances of early twenty-first century aviation and transportation technologies provide opportunities for enhanced aerial projects, and the overall integration of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System (NAS) has applications across a wide range of operations. Through these, remote operators have learned to manage several UAS at the same time in a variety of operational environments. The present work details a component piece of an ongoing body of research into multi-UAS operations. Beginning in early 2020, NASA has collaborated with Uber Technologies to design and develop concepts of operations, roles and responsibilities, and ground control station (GCS) concepts to enable food delivery operations via multiple, small UAS (sUAS). A cognitive walkthrough was chosen as the method for data collection. This allowed information to be gathered from UAS subject matter experts (SMEs) that could further mature designs for future human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulations; in addition, it allowed information to be collected remotely during the stringent restrictions of the COVID-19 pandemic. Consequently, the described cognitive walkthrough activity utilized remote data collection protocols mediated through the usage of programs designed for presentation and telecommunications. Scenarios were designed, complete with airspace, contingencies, and remedial actions, to be presented to the SMEs. Information was collected using a combination of rating scales and open-ended questions. Results received from the SMEs revealed expected hazards, workloads, and information concerns inherent in the contingency scenarios. SMEs also provided insight into the design of GCS tools and displays as well as the duties and relationships of human operators (i.e., monitors) and automation (i.e., informers and flight managers). Implications of these findings are discussed.

unmanned aircraft systems↗

A Cognitive Walkthrough of Multiple Drone Delivery Operations

Advances of early twenty-first century aviation and transportation technologies provide opportunities for enhanced aerial projects, and the overall integration of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System (NAS) has applications across a wide range of operations. Through these, remote operators have learned to manage several UAS at the same time in a variety of operational environments. The present work details a component piece of an ongoing body of research into multi-UAS operations. Beginning in early 2020, NASA has collaborated with Uber Technologies to design and develop concepts of operations, roles and responsibilities, and ground control station (GCS) concepts to enable food delivery operations via multiple, small UAS (sUAS). A cognitive walkthrough was chosen as the method for data collection. This allowed information to be gathered from UAS subject matter experts (SMEs) that could further mature designs for future human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulations; in addition, it allowed information to be collected remotely during the stringent restrictions of the COVID-19 pandemic. Consequently, the described cognitive walkthrough activity utilized remote data collection protocols mediated through the usage of programs designed for presentation and telecommunications. Scenarios were designed, complete with airspace, contingencies, and remedial actions, to be presented to the SMEs. Information was collected using a combination of rating scales and open-ended questions. Results received from the SMEs revealed expected hazards, workloads, and information concerns inherent in the contingency scenarios. SMEs also provided insight into the design of GCS tools and displays as well as the duties and relationships of human operators (i.e., monitors) and automation (i.e., informers and flight managers). Implications of these findings are discussed.

unmanned aircraft systems↗

Quantifying Uncertainty in HPC Job Queue Time Predictions

High Performance Computing (HPC) has developed at an unprecedented pace in recent decades. This growth has demanded corresponding development in the area of HPC Operational Data Analytics (ODA), which encompasses a wide range of data analysis techniques, ML/AI efforts, tools, and visualizations. Published studies in ODA offer a variety of practical ways to inform HPC users, administrators, procurement managers, and other stakeholders. Uncertainty analysis, however, is rare in the related published literature. For instance, we identify only 1 out of 14 existing studies focused on job queue time prediction that investigates the uncertainty aspect of their proposed predictions. We recognize the utmost importance uncertainty quantification can have in such predictive analytics solutions, with consequences in how users interpret information they receive, and attempt to bridge this gap. With the goal of improving access to such insights, we develop a process for determining upper and lower bounds of the predicted queue times of a regression model at a specified confidence level. Our current research is focused on the uncertainty in predicting job queue times, yet our approach may be employed in predicting other metrics.

HPC↗

Risk Trade-Space Analysis for Safe Human Expeditions to Mars

We assessed the integrated safety, health, and performance risk to crews on long-duration missions, specifically to Mars. Using a systems approach rather than one focused on individual countermeasures, we examined the trade space around several such risks to identify high-potential risk mitigation strategies and characterize aspects of Mars mission architectures that could lower aggregated risk. Current Mars Design Reference missions would require durations well over two years and would increase crew exposure to radiation and microgravity well beyond ISS levels, likely resulting in significantly reduced performance beyond our current capability to mitigate that could jeopardize mission success. A “fast Mars transit” round-trip mission concept was studied using an innovative flight dynamics approach to quantify the minimum total mission energy required for a Mars transit with total mission duration less than 400 days. This approach holds promise for sending humans to Mars and returning them safely with acceptable, potentially mitigatable, exposure to microgravity and radiation using current or near-term technologies. The fast transit concept would also result in fewer time-driven vehicle failures and enable sustainable deployment of humans and infrastructure to Mars on a regular cadence, allowing steady exploration and colonization of Mars. Finally, we conclude that reliance on the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) mission operations paradigm – i.e., one of near-complete real-time dependence on experts at Mission Control to manage the combined state of the mission, vehicle, and crew – is high risk given the communication delays and limited resupply of any Mars mission, and this risk is not eliminated by the shorter missions durations of fast transit scenarios. Based on historical trends, it is highly likely that the crew will face a high-consequence problem of uncertain origin during Mars transit when ground support will be greatly reduced. While it may be possible to reduce anomaly rates through improved reliability analysis and testing, and to reduce anomaly impacts through added robustness, such mitigations address only known failure modes and known uncertainties. Therefore, a radical shift in the Human-Systems Integration Architecture (HSIA) that defines the operational paradigm, systems design, and human-systems interactions is required to improve the risk posture to an acceptable level regardless of mission duration.

Mars↗

Research Reactors Division Infrastructure Investment Plan for the High Flux Isotope Reactor

The High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) is a unique national asset. Operational for nearly 60 years, continued investment into the aging infrastructure is necessary to ensure operation for another 6 decades. Additionally, growing missions require HFIR as well as important upgrades. Consequently, carefully integrated planning is required to ensure that infrastructure investments are timely executed to ensure long-term, reliable operation of HFIR. Concerns about challenges to the operational reliability of HFIR resulted in a recommendation from the 2023 Operations Review by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Basic Energy Sciences that a HFIR management strategy be developed to address the infrastructure needs. This report defines the investment needs, which are evolving as new upgrade efforts are better defined. HFIR is part of the three-source strategy within the Neutron Sciences Directorate (NScD) and contributes to the five strategic science areas outlined in the NScD 10 Year Strategic Science Plan: quantum materials, soft matter, materials and engineering, chemistry, and biosciences. Fundamental to this strategy are three core values: operational excellence, responsible stewardship, and servant leadership. These values guide our mission of safe and reliable operation of the reactor and require a strong and just nuclear safety culture, a solemn respect for responsible care of the facility, good workforce development, robust procedures and processes, an effective communication strategy, world-class asset management, a determined customer focus, and a commitment to protecting the environment, the safety and health of the public and our people, and the quality of work performed within our facility. These principles are all essential to operate HFIR at a world-class level. The Research Reactors Division (RRD) will lead a new era of neutron science and isotope production at HFIR through responsible and purposeful leadership and unwavering support of the science community. The approach outlined in this plan highlights the direction leadership is taking to ensure that HFIR is ready to support the science challenges and national needs of the future and that the United States maintains world leadership in neutron sciences. The plan is in alignment with the DOE’s desire to continue operating HFIR and with the NScD strategic science goals for the future. HFIR is an aging facility with numerous infrastructure challenges and needs. It has an aging workforce in relation to the general population of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), with many expected retirements over the next 5–10 years. With an increase in work scope caused by changing national priorities and science goals, several critical hires have been identified. To manage HFIR’s infrastructure needs, a prioritized list of equipment upgrades has been identified along with an analysis of future staffing requirements. A desire to operate HFIR at eight cycles per year will necessarily require some significant changes to procedures and processes currently in place as well as targeted staffing additions. Many of the equipment upgrades identified in this plan will significantly increase the reliability of the plant, thus contributing to the effort to reach the goal of safely operating eight cycles per year. A plan to attain eight-cycle operation is being prepared in parallel with the activities identified in this plan, although the actions identified to satisfy both plans will overlap. This plan identifies new infrastructure needs—for both plant equipment and staffing—thus necessitating formulation of future budget requests to fund the increased work scope and improvement activities. Some activities are currently being scheduled with the expectation that funding will be received. Any delays to funding or reductions of funding from the identified cost estimations will directly and negatively affect the plan’s implementation.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Can Simulation Credibility Be Improved Using Sensitivity Analysis to Understand Input Data Effects on Model Outcome?

Model and simulation (MS) credibility is defined as, the quality to elicit belief or trust in MS results. NASA-STD-7009 [1] delineates eight components (Verification, Validation, Input Pedigree, Results Uncertainty, Results Robustness, Use History, MS Management, People Qualifications) that address quantifying model credibility, and provides guidance to the model developers, analysts, and end users for assessing the MS credibility. Of the eight characteristics, input pedigree, or the quality of the data used to develop model input parameters, governing functions, or initial conditions, can vary significantly. These data quality differences have varying consequences across the range of MS application. NASA-STD-7009 requires that the lowest input data quality be used to represent the entire set of input data when scoring the input pedigree credibility of the model. This requirement provides a conservative assessment of model inputs, and maximizes the communication of the potential level of risk of using model outputs. Unfortunately, in practice, this may result in overly pessimistic communication of the MS output, undermining the credibility of simulation predictions to decision makers. This presentation proposes an alternative assessment mechanism, utilizing results parameter robustness, also known as model input sensitivity, to improve the credibility scoring process for specific simulations.

Credibility↗

Use of New Communication Technologies to Change NASA Safety Culture: Incorporating the Use of Blogs as a Fundamental Communications Tool

The purpose of this paper is to explore an innovative approach to culture change at NASA that goes beyond reorganizations, management training, and a renewed emphasis on safety. Over the last five years, a technological social revolution has been emerging from the internet. Blogs (aka web logs) are transforming traditional communication and information sharing outlets away from established information sources such as the media. The Blogosphere has grown from zero blogs in 1999 to approximately 4.5 million as of November 2004 and is expected to double in 2005. Blogs have demonstrated incredible effectiveness and efficiency with regards to affecting major military and political events. Consequently, NASA should embrace the new information paradigm presented by blogging. NASA can derive exceptional benefits from the new technology as follows: 1) Personal blogs can overcome the silent safety culture by giving voice to concerns or questions that are not well understood or seemingly inconsequential to the NASA community at-large without the pressure of formally raising a potential false alarm. Since blogs can be open to Agency-wide participation, an incredible amount of resources from an extensive pool of experience can focus on a single issue, concern, or problem and quickly vetted, discussed and assessed for feasibility, significance, and criticality. The speed for which this could be obtained cannot be matched through any other process or procedure currently in use. 2) Through official NASA established blogs, lessons learned can be a real-time two way process that is formed and implemented from the ground level. Data mining of official NASA blogs and personal blogs of NASA personnel can identify hot button issues and concerns to senior management. 3) NASA blogs could function as a natural ombudsman for the NASA community. Through the recognition of issues being voiced by the community and taking a proactive stance on those issues, credibility within NASA Management can be restored. For NASA to harness the capabilities of blogs, NASA must develop an Agency-wide policy on blogging to encourage use and provide guidance. This policy should describe basic rules of conduct and content as well as a policy of non-retribution and/or anonymity. The Agency must provide sever space within their firewalls, provide appropriate software tools, and promote blogs in newsletters and official websites. By embracing the use of blogs, a potential pool of 19,000 experts could be available to address each posted safety issue, concern, problem, or question. Blogs could result in real NASA culture change.

Huls, Dale thomas↗

AC and DC Fault Management for Megawatt Electrified Aircraft Electrical Powertrains Task 3: Lifetime and Reliability of Electrical Insulators

This research project was a collaborative investigation between researchers at the RTX Technology Research Center (RTRC) and the University of Texas at Austin and made a significant contribution to enabling electric aircraft. The transport of electric power between the points of generation and use requires power cables. These cables must be smaller, lighter and provide a more predictable life than power cables used in stationary applications. Consequently, this investigation provided heretofore unavailable information supporting the safety and reliability of smaller lighter power cables for electrified aircraft. In addition, the research identified key additional engineering data needed to support quantitative reliability assessments. Important advances included: • Demonstrated that at least one manufacturer can make a novel, smaller, lighter power cable that is free from serious defects. • Developed and published an appropriate analytical construct to describe the life of this novel cable. This is a necessary step for use in aviation where the understanding of remaining life is critical. • Demonstrated thermal-mechanical aging that suggested 1000+ flights before the thermal-mechanical processes produced defects large enough that the defect growth was accelerated electrically. • Showed that electrical aging took place at two rates. The first possibly lasting weeks to months and the second possibly days to weeks. If robust, this provides a good diagnostic for cable replacement. • Demonstrated that the traditional electrical testing of cable materials using manufactured voids can be misleading due to the size of the voids. Emerging laser drilling technology permitted demonstration that the physics of failure in realistically small voids is different from that in the unrealistically large voids used in earlier research, which is very important for high-quality, high-performance, small aircraft cables. Although this project represents a significant contribution to the specifics of cable aging in the aircraft environment, important additional research remains to be completed, including: • Non-uniform thermal cycling by applying the heat from the center conductor to maximize thermal stress next to the core area where the electric gradient is the strongest. This builds on the uniform thermal cycling that has been completed. • The augmentation of the thermal-mechanical failure rate by electrical processes. Better understanding of these time constants strongly affects the ability to predict life. • Termination design: Terminations provide not only electrical reflection potential, but a location for a series arc fault and an area where ozone can diffuse into the center conductor and negatively affect cable insulation. • The abrasion and ozone resistance of the cable jacket. • Pressure cycling as an accelerant of thermal, mechanical, and/or electrical aging. • Possible methods for online PD detection and offline PD localization

model↗