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DOE OSTI2024

A deep learning-based workflow for fast prediction of 3D state variables in geological carbon storage: A dimension reduction approach

Deep learning (DL) models are extensively used as surrogate models for high-fidelity simulations of multiphase fluid flow in porous media at large scales, enabling fast forecasts of the spatial–temporal evolution of three-dimensional (3D) state variables in geological carbon storage (GCS). However, training these models in high-dimensional space remains computationally demanding and prone to overfitting because of limited training data. This paper presents a novel workflow to address these challenges by integrating dimension reduction (DR) methods. Here, the proposed workflow employed pre-trained DR models to extract the latent variables of geological models and state variables and utilized the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) for constructing mapping functions between the input and output variables in latent spaces. Subsequently, the pre-trained reconstruction models converted the MLP-predicted latent state variables to their original high-dimensional form. Furthermore, we proposed a novel strategy for the DR and reconstruction of 3D saturation fields to account for the unique data characteristics of sparsity, nonuniformity, and discontinuity. The proposed strategy applied PCA and inverse PCA for 2D average saturation fields and developed a DL-based 3D reconstruction model, leveraging three 2D average saturation fields as input to produce a 3D saturation field as output. The pre-training of DR and reconstruction models and training of MLP models were conducted on 84 Gulf of Mexico (GoM) simulations and evaluated on 12 testing simulations. Each simulation contained 720 monthly time steps, with the first 360 months as the injection period and the rest as the post-injection period. The proposed workflow, incorporating DR and DL models, accurately predicts the normalized 3D pressure fields, achieving mean square error (MSE) of 2.92 × 10 -7 compared to the ground truth obtained from a full-physics simulator. Furthermore, the proposed strategy outperformed PCA and convolutional autoencoder (CAE) models on 3D saturation fields, resulting in minor workflow prediction errors with an MSE of 2.93 × 10 -5 . The results suggest the proposed workflow provides sufficient predictive fidelity across temporal and spatial scales, and enables a speedup of 160 times compared to the full-physics simulator, facilitating improved decision-making and risk assessment for large-scale GCS management in real-time scenarios.

3D reconstruction model↗

DOE OSTI2025

Using feature importance as an exploratory data analysis tool on Earth system models

Abstract. Machine learning (ML) models are commonly used to generate predictions, but these models can also support the discovery of new science. Generating accurate predictions necessitates that a model captures the structure of the underlying data. If the structure is properly extracted, ML could be a useful exploratory and evidential tool. In this paper, we present a case study that demonstrates the use of ML for exploratory data analysis (EDA) in the climate space. We apply the ML explainability method of spatiotemporal zeroed feature importance (stZFI) to understand how climate-variable associations evolve over space and time. Our analyses focus on data from ensembles of Earth system models (ESMs) which provide data on different climate states and conditions. We elect to work with ESM ensembles since they allow us to compare feature importance across alternative scenarios not available with observed data. The ensembles also account for natural variability so that we can distinguish between signal and noise due to natural climate variability when computing feature importance. The use of perturbed initial condition ensembles introduces variability mimicking the natural variability in the atmosphere; thus the signals emerging using feature importance (FI) can be evaluated against the natural variability in the climate system. For our analyses, we consider the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo, which was a large stratospheric aerosol injection. We explore the climate pathway associated with the eruption from aerosols to radiation to temperature at both the near-surface and stratospheric levels. In addition to applying the method to data generated from two different ESMs, we apply stZFI to reanalysis data to compare the associations identified by stZFI. We show how stZFI tracks the importance of aerosol optical depth over time on forecasting temperatures. This case study illustrates usefulness of an ML tool (stZFI) for EDA on a well-studied climate exemplar.

Ries, Daniel (ORCID:0000000250294647)↗

NASA NTRS1981

Maximum likelihood clustering with dependent feature trees

The decomposition of mixture density of the data into its normal component densities is considered. The densities are approximated with first order dependent feature trees using criteria of mutual information and distance measures. Expressions are presented for the criteria when the densities are Gaussian. By defining different typs of nodes in a general dependent feature tree, maximum likelihood equations are developed for the estimation of parameters using fixed point iterations. The field structure of the data is also taken into account in developing maximum likelihood equations. Experimental results from the processing of remotely sensed multispectral scanner imagery data are included.

Chittineni, C. B.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Direct Measurement of Diffusion Coefficients: Evidence for Diffusive Stochastic Heating in Collisionless Plasmas

Open questions in collisionless plasma dissipation can be addressed using space-based observations in different astrophysical environments, with implications for both astrophysical and laboratory plasma systems. We study a low-𝛽, highly imbalanced, sub-Alfvénic stream observed by Parker Solar Probe (PSP) to identify and distinguish between signatures of stochastic heating (SH) and resonant heating (RH) by parallel ion cyclotron waves (∥-ICWs). Prior work studying this stream [Trevor A. Bowen et al., Stochastic heating in the sub-Alfvénic solar wind, Phys. Rev. Lett. 135, 255201 (2025)] showed that the SH rate, accounting for intermittency, matched the amplitude of the local energy transfer (LET) rate, while the RH rate did not. This comparison relied on a number of assumptions regarding the nature of the diffusive process and the calculation of the LET rate. We introduce a novel technique of inverting the proton guiding center equation to empirically measure velocity-space diffusion coefficients using three-dimensional proton velocity distribution functions, from the ion electrostatic analyzer (the Solar Probe Analyzer for Ions) on PSP. Measured diffusion coefficients are used to determine phase-space heating rates, leading to a calculation of a fully kinetic heating rate independent of assumptions made in prior work. We show that scale-dependent analytic expressions for SH via noncoherent fluctuations match the empirical measurements from PSP data, provided that we account for intermittency in the heating calculation. In contrast, the derived heating rates for SH that accounts for the effects of the helicity barrier and heating rates for RH via ∥-ICWs do not peak in the same region of velocity space as the empirical measurements, nor do they reach the required magnitude. Our approach provides novel methodology to uniquely identify and constrain heating processes in collisionless plasmas and shows evidence of a Fokker-Planck-like diffusive process in the near-Sun solar wind.

Plasma kinetic theory↗

NASA NTRS1983

Spacelab Data Processing Facility

The capabilities of the Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SPDPF) are highlighted. The capturing, quality monitoring, processing, accounting, and forwarding of vital Spacelab data to various user facilities around the world are described.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1999

Assimilation of SeaWinds Scatterometer Data in the GEOS Data Assimilation System

The first SeaWinds scatterometer was launched in to space aboard the Quikscat satellite on June 19, 1999 at 7:15 p.m. PDT. Flying in a near polar orbit 800 km above the earth's surface, SeaWinds uses an advanced scatterometer design to measure surface wind velocity over 90 percent of the ice free oceans ever 24 hours. This first SeaWinds mission is designed to replace the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) which ceased providing wind velocity data when the ADEOS I satellite failed. A second SeaWinds is scheduled to be launched late in 2000 aboard ADEOS II. Previous scatterometer assimilation experiments conducted by the NASA Data Assimilation Office, using both ERS and NSCAT wind observations, have demonstrated considerable potential for this type of data to improve both atmospheric analyses and forecasts, however much of the smaller scale information content of the scatterometer data could not be taken into account in the early coarse resolution versions of the Goddard (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS) or in operational data assimilation systems. In this paper, we will describe data assimilation experiments in which the new higher resolution versions of the GOES DAS are used to assimilate SeaWinds scatterometer winds. Following a brief discussion of the SeaWinds design and the methodology used to assimilate scatterometer data in the GOES DAS, the quality of the SeaWinds data and the impact of SeaWinds on GOES analyses and forecasts at different resolutions will be presented.

Atlas, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2019

EARTHDATA PUB: A Data Publication Workflow Solution for NASA’s EOSDIS

Each NASA Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) faces the challenge of dealing with an increasingly diverse number of publishable data products from diverse data producers. Data producers, on the other hand, may experience pain points when interacting with the EOSDIS for the first time or when publishing different data at different DAACs. As a result, there has been a growing need to develop a common software framework that serves as a common interface for data producers, rigorously defines the data publication procedure for DAAC staff, facilitates the management of various data publication processes, and tracks the progress of data publication. This software should also account for the different configurations at different DAACs. Currently, two primary data publication workflow and tracking tools exist in operation at the EOSDIS: Semi-Automated ingest System (SAuS) and Data Publication workflow Portal (DAPPeR). However, neither tool is cloud-ready. Automated data processing could be managed by Cumulus, an EOSDIS cloud-based data ingest, archive and management system. However, Cumulus does not support manual tasks or on-premise implementations. We propose to develop the Earthdata Publication Minimum Viable Product (Earthdata Pub MVP) -- a cloud-hosted solution that works with both cloud and on-premise systems and implements the communications and exchange requirements generated by the Earthdata Pub information architecture team.

Rice, Justin L.↗

NASA NTRS2004

High-Temperature Probe Station Developed to Characterize Microwave Devices Through 500 C

A photograph and a block diagram of the high-temperature probe station are shown. The system consists of the ceramic heater mounted on a NASA shuttle tile insulator, a direct current power supply, a personal-computer-based data acquisition and temperature controller, microwave probes, a microscope, and a network analyzer. The ability to perform microwave tests at high temperatures is becoming necessary. There is now a need for sensors and communication circuits that can operate at 500 C and above for aircraft engine development and monitoring during flight. To address this need, researchers have fabricated devices using wide bandgap semiconductors such as SiC with targeted operating temperatures of 500 to 600 C. However, the microwave properties of these devices often change drastically with temperature, so any designs that are intended to be used in such an environment must be characterized at high temperatures. For some reliability, lifetime, and direct-current testing, the device under test can be packaged and characterized in an oven. However, for RF and microwave measurements, it is usually not possible to establish a calibrated reference plane at the device terminals within a package. In addition, the characteristics of the package would vary over a 500 C temperature range, and this would have to be accounted for when the data were analyzed. A high temperature probe station allows circuits and devices to be characterized through on wafer measurements across a broad temperature range with known reference plane. The conventional, commercially available thermal wafer-probe stations that are used to evaluate microwave devices across a controlled temperature range have a typical upper limit of 200 C. Standalone thermal heating chucks are available with an extended upper temperature range of 300 to 400 C. To effectively characterize devices at temperatures up to and surpassing 500 C, Glenn researchers developed a custom probe station. In the past, custom probe stations have been developed to test devices under other extreme environments, such as cryogenic temperatures as low as 37 K. Similarly, this custom probe station was specifically modified for high-temperature use. It allows devices to be measured quickly and flexibly, without the use of wire bonds and test fixtures. The probe station is shown making scattering parameter measurements from 1 to 50 GHz with a Hewlett-Packard 8510C Network Analyzer. There is a half-wafer of silicon directly on top of the heater to provide a uniform heated platform for our sample. A quarter wafer of silicon carbide forms the substrate for our test circuit of several transmission lines.

Downey, Alan N.↗

NASA NTRS1993

LASSO observations at McDonald and OCA/CERGA: A preliminary analysis

The Laser Synchronization from Synchronous Orbit (LASSO) observations between USA and Europe were made possible with the move of Meteosat 3/P2 toward 50 deg W. Two Lunar Laser Ranging stations participated into the observations: the MLRS at McDonald Observatory (Texas, USA) and OCA/CERGA (Grasse, France). Common sessions were performed since 30 Apr. 1992, and will be continued up to the next Meteosat 3/P2 move further West (planned for January 1993). The preliminary analysis made with the data already collected by the end of Nov. 1992 shows that the precision which can be obtained from LASSO is better than 100 ps, the accuracy depending on how well the stations maintain their time metrology, as well as on the quality of the calibration (still to be made.) For extracting such a precision from the data, the processing has been drastically changed compared to the initial LASSO data analysis. It takes into account all the measurements made, timings on board, and echoes at each station. This complete use of the data increased dramatically the confidence into the synchronization results.

Veillet, CH.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Determining solutions of hyperbolic systems from incomplete data

An investigation is conducted regarding first-order hyperbolic systems of partial differential equations, taking into account problems for which complete initial data are not available. Problems of the considered kind arise in geophysical applications where satellites are used to collect data. In global weather prediction, it is possible to derive atmospheric temperature and pressure reasonably well over the whole globe from satellite measurements; obtaining the wind field globally is more difficult. It is pointed out that a simple model of atmospheric flow investigated in numerical weather prediction is governed by the shallow water equations. The effect of the Coriolis term on the linearized shallow-water equations is studied.

Bube, K. P.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predicting responses to climate change using a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance model

Abstract Predicting the effects of warming temperatures on the abundance and distribution of organisms under future climate scenarios often requires extrapolating species–environment correlations to climatic conditions not currently experienced by a species, which can result in unrealistic predictions. For poikilotherms, incorporating species' thermal physiology to inform extrapolations under novel thermal conditions can result in more realistic predictions. Furthermore, models that incorporate species and spatial dependencies may improve predictions by capturing correlations present in ecological data that are not accounted for by predictor variables. Here, we present a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance (jsPGA) model for predicting multispecies responses to climate warming. The jsPGA model uses a basis function approach to capture both species and spatial dependencies. We apply the jsPGA model to predict the response of eight fish species to projected climate warming in thousands of lakes in Minnesota, USA. By the end of the century, the cold‐adapted species was predicted to have high probabilities of extirpation across its current range—with 10% of lakes currently inhabited by this species having an extirpation probability >0.90. The remaining species had varying levels of predicted changes in abundance, reflecting differences in their thermal physiology. Though the model did not identify many strong species dependencies, the variation in estimated spatial dependence across species suggested that accounting for both dependencies was important for predicting the abundance of these fishes. The jsPGA model provides a new tool for predicting changes in the abundance, distribution, and extirpation probability of poikilotherms under novel thermal conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Estimating irrigation water use from remotely sensed evapotranspiration data: Accuracy and uncertainties at field, water right, and regional scales

Irrigated agriculture is the dominant user of water globally, but most water withdrawals are not monitored or reported. As a result, it is largely unknown when, where, and how much water is used for irrigation. Here, we evaluated the ability of remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) data, integrated with other datasets, to calculate irrigation water withdrawals and applications in an intensively irrigated portion of the United States. We compared irrigation calculations based on an ensemble of satellite-driven ET models from OpenET with reported groundwater withdrawals from hundreds of farmer irrigation application records and a statewide flowmeter database at three spatial scales (field, water right group, and management area). At the field scale, we found that ET-based calculations of irrigation agreed best with reported irrigation when the OpenET ensemble mean was aggregated to the growing season timescale (bias = 1.6–4.9%, R 2 = 0.53–0.74), and agreement between calculated and reported irrigation was better for multi-year averages than for individual years. At the water right group scale, linking pumping wells to specific irrigated fields was the primary source of uncertainty. At the management area scale, calculated irrigation exhibited similar temporal patterns as flowmeter data but tended to be positively biased with more interannual variability. Disagreement between calculated and reported irrigation was strongly correlated with annual precipitation, and calculated and reported irrigation agreed more closely after statistically adjusting for annual precipitation. The selection of an ET model was also an important consideration, as variability across ET models was larger than the potential impacts of conservation measures employed in the region. From these results, we suggest key practices for working with ET-based irrigation data that include accurately accounting for changes in soil moisture, deep percolation, and runoff; careful verification of irrigated area and well-field linkages; and conducting application-specific evaluations of uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Temporal Variability in Reservoir Surface Area Is an Important Source of Uncertainty in GHG Emission Estimates

Ebullitive methane (CH 4 ) emissions in lentic ecosystems tend to concentrate at river-lake interfaces and within shallow littoral zones. However, inconsistent definitions of the littoral zone and static representations of the lake or reservoir surface area contribute to major uncertainties in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimates, particularly in reservoirs with large water-level fluctuations. This study examines temporal variation in littoral and total surface areas of US reservoirs and demonstrates how different methods and data sources lead to discrepencies in reservoir GHG emissions at large scales and over time. We also explore variability in remotely sensed water occurrence according to maximum surface area, reservoir purposes, and hydrologic regions. Notably, the largest relative variability in surface area is exhibited by small reservoirs with a maximum surface area <1 km 2 and non-hydroelectric reservoirs. Additionally, we use a case study of measured CH 4 emissions from the southeastern United States (Douglas Reservoir) to illustrate the effects of varying surface area on reservoir-wide GHG estimates. Upscaled CH 4 emissions in Douglas Reservoir differed by nearly two-fold depending on the source of total surface area data and whether estimates accounted for seasonal fluctuations in surface area. During seasonal drawdown in Douglas Reservoir, relative littoral area varies non-linearly; periods of lower pool elevation (and thus larger relative littoral area) likely contribute disproportionately high CH 4 emission rates compared to the commonly sampled summer season when water levels are at full-pool elevation. Improved GHG monitoring and upscaling techniques require accounting for temporal variability in reservoir surface extent and littoral area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

How extreme rainfall and failing dams unleashed the Derna flood disaster

On September 11, 2023, Storm Daniel unleashed unprecedented rainfall over the Wadi Derna watershed, triggering one of the most devastating floods in modern history, striking Derna, a coastal city in Libya. This study reconstructs the disaster using an integrated modeling approach that combines satellite imagery, hydrologic, hydraulic, and geotechnical simulations, machine learning, eyewitness accounts, and digital elevation data to assess the impact of cascading dam failures. Our findings reveal that the region’s dams, even if structurally sound, would have provided minimal protection against the extreme runoff. However, their failure unleashed a destructive surge wave, amplifying the disaster’s magnitude and devastation. Here, we show that the collapse of aging flood control infrastructures, compounded by inadequate risk assessment and emergency preparedness, dramatically escalated the disaster’s impact. Our findings underscore the urgent need for systematic dam safety evaluations, enhanced flood forecasting, and adaptive risk management strategies that address climate extremes and infrastructure vulnerabilities.

Hydrology↗

DOE OSTI2024

The High-resolution Urban Meteorology for Impacts Dataset (HUMID) daily for the Conterminous United States

Many current gridded surface meteorological datasets are inadequate for quantifying near surface spatiotemporal variability because they do not fully represent the impacts of land surface heterogeneity. Of note, explicit representation of the spatial structure and magnitude of local urban warming are usually lacking. Here we enhance the representation of spatial meteorological variability over urban areas in the conterminous United States (CONUS) by employing the High-Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS), which accounts for the fine-scale impacts of spatiotemporally varying land surfaces on weather. We also synthesize in situ meteorological data including local mesonets to create a 1 km grid spacing model-observation fusion product spanning 1981-2018 over the CONUS. Daily maximum, minimum, and mean values for a variety of temperature estimates, humidity, and surface energy budget terms, among others, are included. This High-resolution Urban Meteorology for Impacts Dataset (HUMID) will be useful for studies examining spatial variability of near surface meteorology and the impacts of urban heat islands across many disciplines including epidemiology, ecology, and climatology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Development of a kinetic-thermodynamic model for lime-stabilization of Na-bentonite

This study presents the first kinetic model to predict the solid and pore solution composition of Na-bentonite clay reacting with slaked lime over a period of 720 days. The model successfully accounts for most experimental data using a single kinetic rate constant. The following sequence of reactions was predicted by the model: initial rapid dissolution of portlandite within the first 7 days, leading to a decrease in pH and dissolved calcium, and concurrent formation of calcium silicate hydrates (C-S-H: jennite), calcium aluminate hydrate (C-A-H: C₄AH₁₃), calcium aluminosilicate hydrates (stratlingite) and hydrotalcite. After 7 days, jennite and stratlingite are predicted to transform into tobermorite-II, contributing to strength development up to 28 days. From 28 to 90 days, continued montmorillonite dissolution is predicted, along with minor formation of ettringite, partial tobermorite-II dissolution, and precipitation of secondary phases such as albite and talc. Experimentally, portlandite dissolution was confirmed by TGA and XRD and found to be complete within 7 days, in agreement with model predictions. However, other predicted solid-phase transformations (e.g., tobermorite-II formation and dissolution, ettringite, albite, and talc formation) could not be conclusively verified through experimental techniques. Aqueous phase measurements confirmed that the pH and Ca trends in solution, and that equilibrium was reached by 90 days.

Chemical kinetics↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Review of Value of Solar Studies In Theory and In Practice

This brief summarizes a collection of state- and utility-commissioned value-of-solar (VoS) studies and related literature, with a focus on who commissioned the study, which value and cost categories were discussed and/or quantified, and the methods used. Our objective is to compile information on prior VoS studies to inform state regulators and other stakeholders that may pursue related studies or integrate findings into rate design. The brief is organized into three parts: 1) an introduction to distributed solar photovoltaic (DPV) compensation; 2) a review of theoretical research on VoS; and 3) a review of VoS studies. The vast majority of VoS studies have served an informational role of quantifying the net benefits of PV. Three studies were commissioned in states or utility service territories that subsequently implemented VoS tariffs in California, New York, and Austin, Texas. When applied as a tariff, VoS aims to compensate PV output as efficiently as possible by doing so at rates that reflect the marginal benefits and costs of PV through value and cost categories that may vary temporally and/or geographically. This could lead to higher compensation in locations and times where more PV output is more valuable and consequently drive adoption in those locations to provide more societal benefits. Value and cost factors can be broadly grouped into five categories: generation, transmission, distribution, other utility, and other social categories. Those conducting VoS studies must weigh various tradeoffs when deciding which categories to include and quantify. Tradeoffs include prioritizing values based on their magnitude of value or cost impact, as well as taking into account the feasibility of data collection and accurate quantification. Values of higher magnitude and estimation feasibility are quantified in the majority of studies, including the earliest of studies conducted in the 2000s and 2010s. Additionally, some values of higher magnitude but low feasibility in the earliest of studies have become quantifiable in recent years. There are some values with low average system-wide levels but very high magnitude in specific locations or hours. The value magnitude in some cases can be tied to DPV penetration with low value in areas with little congestion and/or low penetration and vice versa. In these cases, values that are easier to quantify are often incorporated, while those that are more difficult are often addressed via a placeholder value. The placeholder value is paired with a discussion around data needs and methods to improve future estimates, as well as a conversation about when these value categories may increase in magnitude and necessitate more rigorous quantification. This brief summarizes findings from two meta-analyses of VoS studies that took place between 2005 and 2018, as well as findings from four additional studies published from 2018 to 2023. Table ES-1 summarizes the various value and cost categories included in each respective study and whether they were quantified, discussed, or omitted. Values such as avoided energy, capacity, transmission capacity, line losses, and avoided environmental costs are quantified in every study. Some categories were deemed harder to quantify and less impactful at the time of the study, so they were discussed but not quantified (e.g., ancillary services). Other categories, including many at the distribution level, were very locationally and/or temporally specific and dependent on high DPV penetration. These were sometimes quantified and at other times discussed. Notably, when it came to utility costs, integration costs were discussed in all cases, though they were deemed to have a small impact. Other utility costs were omitted for the most part; however, the utility-commissioned study (by NorthWestern Energy in Montana) included both lost utility revenue and programmatic/administrative cost categories. While there are some similarities across studies, each had fairly unique methods that are detailed in the body of this brief.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1973

Investigation of the Statistics of Pure Tone Sound Power Injection from Low Frequency, Finite Sized Sources in a Reverberant Room

The effect of finite source size on the power statistics in a reverberant room for pure tone excitation was investigated. Theoretical results indicate that the standard deviation of low frequency, pure tone finite sources is always less than that predicted by point source theory and considerably less when the source dimension approaches one-half an acoustic wavelength or greater. A supporting experimental study was conducted utilizing an eight inch loudspeaker and a 30 inch loudspeaker at eleven source positions. The resulting standard deviation of sound power output of the smaller speaker is in excellent agreement with both the derived finite source theory and existing point source theory, if the theoretical data is adjusted to account for experimental incomplete spatial averaging. However, the standard deviation of sound power output of the larger speaker is measurably lower than point source theory indicates, but is in good agreement with the finite source theory.

Smith, Wayne Farrior↗