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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17

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NASA NTRS2010

Nondestructive Evaluation and Monitoring Results from COPV Accelerated Stress Rupture Testing, NASA White Sands Test Facility (WSTF)

Develop and demonstrate NDE techniques for real-time characterization of CPVs and, where possible, identification of NDE capable of assessing stress rupture related strength degradation and/or making vessel life predictions (structural health monitoring or periodic inspection modes). Secondary: Provide the COPV user and materials community with quality carbon/epoxy (C/Ep) COPV stress rupture progression rate data. Aid in modeling, manufacturing, and application of COPVs for NASA spacecraft.

Saulsberry Regor↗

NASA NTRS2012

Physics Based Electrolytic Capacitor Degradation Models for Prognostic Studies under Thermal Overstress

Electrolytic capacitors are used in several applications ranging from power supplies on safety critical avionics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuators. This makes them good candidates for prognostics and health management research. Prognostics provides a way to assess remaining useful life of components or systems based on their current state of health and their anticipated future use and operational conditions. Past experiences show that capacitors tend to degrade and fail faster under high electrical and thermal stress conditions that they are often subjected to during operations. In this work, we study the effects of accelerated aging due to thermal stress on different sets of capacitors under different conditions. Our focus is on deriving first principles degradation models for thermal stress conditions. Data collected from simultaneous experiments are used to validate the desired models. Our overall goal is to derive accurate models of capacitor degradation, and use them to predict performance changes in DC-DC converters.

Kulkarni, Chetan S.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Physics Based Modeling and Prognostics of Electrolytic Capacitors

This paper proposes first principles based modeling and prognostics approach for electrolytic capacitors. Electrolytic capacitors have become critical components in electronics systems in aeronautics and other domains. Degradations and faults in DC-DC converter unit propagates to the GPS and navigation subsystems and affects the overall solution. Capacitors and MOSFETs are the two major components, which cause degradations and failures in DC-DC converters. This type of capacitors are known for its low reliability and frequent breakdown on critical systems like power supplies of avionics equipment and electrical drivers of electromechanical actuators of control surfaces. Some of the more prevalent fault effects, such as a ripple voltage surge at the power supply output can cause glitches in the GPS position and velocity output, and this, in turn, if not corrected will propagate and distort the navigation solution. In this work, we study the effects of accelerated aging due to thermal stress on different sets of capacitors under different conditions. Our focus is on deriving first principles degradation models for thermal stress conditions. Data collected from simultaneous experiments are used to validate the desired models. Our overall goal is to derive accurate models of capacitor degradation, and use them to predict performance changes in DC-DC converters.

Kulkarni, Chetan↗

NASA NTRS2012

Environmental Barrier Coating (EBC) Durability Modeling; An Overview and Preliminary Analysis

A study outlining a fracture mechanics based model that is being developed to investigate crack growth and spallation of environmental barrier coating (EBC) under thermal cycling conditions is presented. A description of the current plan and a model to estimate thermal residual stresses in the coating and preliminary fracture mechanics concepts for studying crack growth in the coating are also discussed. A road map for modeling life and durability of the EBC and the results of FEA model(s) developed for predicting thermal residual stresses and the cracking behavior of the coating are generated and described. Further initial assessment and preliminary results showed that developing a comprehensive EBC life prediction model incorporating EBC cracking, degradation and spalling mechanism under stress and temperature gradients typically seen in turbine components is difficult. This is basically due to mismatch in thermal expansion difference between sub-layers of EBC as well as between EBC and substrate, diffusion of moisture and oxygen though the coating, and densification of the coating during operating conditions as well as due to foreign object damage, the EBC can also crack and spall from the substrate causing oxidation and recession and reducing the design life of the EBC coated substrate.

Abdul-Aziz, A.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Evaluation of Case Size 0603 BME Ceramic Capacitors

High volumetric efficiency of commercial base metal electrode (BME) ceramic capacitors allows for a substantial reduction of weight and sizes of the parts compared to currently used military grade precious metal electrode (PME) capacitors. Insertion of BME capacitors in space applications requires a thorough analysis of their performance and reliability. In this work, six types of cases size 0603 BME capacitors from three vendors have been evaluated. Three types of multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) were designed for automotive industry and three types for general purposes. Leakage currents in the capacitors have been measured in a wide range of voltages and temperatures, and measurements of breakdown voltages (VBR) have been used to assess the proportion and severity of defects in the parts. The effect of soldering-related thermal shock stresses was evaluated by analysis of distributions of VBR for parts in 'as is' condition and after terminal solder dip testing at 350 C. Highly Accelerated Life Testing (HALT) at different temperatures was used to assess the activation energy of degradation of leakage currents and predict behavior of the parts at life test and normal operating conditions. To address issues related to rework and manual soldering, capacitors were soldered onto different substrates at different soldering conditions. The results show that contrary to a common assumption that large-size capacitors are mostly vulnerable to soldering stresses, cracking in small size capacitors does happen unless special measures are taken during assembly processes.

testing↗

NASA NTRS2021

OSIRIS-REx Orbit Trim Strategy

One of the more challenging aspects of the trajectory design for the OSIRIS-REx (Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer) mission at asteroid Bennu was maneuvering while in orbit. The orbital dynamics were highly perturbed by various sources, most notably solar radiation pressure, which degraded accuracy of long term predictions of the spacecraft’s location in orbit. Generally, the Navigation team had to solve three separate issues: correcting a perturbed orbit, changing to a different orbit, or phasing the or bitto place the spacecraft at a specific location at a specific time. The team composed a common framework using up to two maneuvers that could solve all of these problems using an identical schedule that allowed for consistent planning long before the final trajectory could be designed. This orbit trim strategy was successfully used for the first time in the Orbital B phase of the mission to maximize the duration of usable observing geometry in a time-variable orbit with strict operational limits. It was used an additional 3 times throughout the mission to adjust and/or change the orbit, most notably altering the orbit in the weeks prior to the successful Touch-And-Go (TAG)sample collection attempt. This same strategy was used to phase the orbit a total 10 times in preparation for each of the science sorties over potential sample sites, the TAG Rehearsals, and TAG. The trim strategy was demonstrated to be robust and performed exceptionally well in all aspects, which proved critical to a successful sample collection.

Daniel R. Wibben↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optimization of Energy Storage System Economics and Controls by Incorporating Battery Degradation Costs in REopt

The use of stationary electrochemical energy storage systems utilizing lithium-ion batteries has increased rapidly as the production scale and price for lithium-ion batteries has decreased. These energy storage systems are crucial for maintaining grid resiliency, especially for grids operating with high penetration of renewable energy generation assets or for with a variety of distributed energy generation and storage systems. One challenging factor for the development of battery energy storage systems is estimating the proper sizing, in terms of both power and energy, that minimizes total costs over the lifetime of the systems; this calculation is difficult in simple cases, where a battery is costed independently, but is extremely challenging when building loads and electrical generation by photovoltaic resources are also considered. REopt is a techoeconomic optimization tool developed by NREL to address these challenges. Previously, battery degradation has been priced by simply assuming a 10-year replacement schedule for battery systems. However, this does not account for varying degradation trends observed across real-world batteries, or allow for batteries to be operated in a degradation-aware manner that optimizes battery dispatch based on operating costs. This work incorporates a battery life model into REopt. This battery life model is simple, so that it may be solvable within the constrains of a mixed-integer linear optimization problem, but is fit to accelerated aging data recorded in the lab. To achieve the best possible accuracy for lifetime estimates given these constraints, parameters for the battery life model in REopt are estimated by fitting 20-year simulations of battery life after identifying state-space battery degradation model from accelerated aging data. Comparisons of battery life predicted in REopt and from the state-space battery degradation model to ensure validity of lifetime estimates made by REopt. Battery life and cost is optimized by controlling three decision to minimize system life cost: battery sizing, daily state-of-charge, and daily energy-throughput. The cost of battery degradation as a function of these control variables is then estimated assuming two possible maintenance strategies: replacement, where the entire battery system is replaced if cell reach an end-of-life capacity threshold; and augmentation, which establishes a fund to pay for continual purchase of new batteries to maintain the initial energy capacity of the system. These two strategies offer conservative (for replacement) and optimistic (for augmentation) bounds for total system cost. The degradation cost incurred by these strategies is then used to control battery dispatch decisions, operating the battery in a degradation-aware manner that maximizes battery lifetime while also providing energy when favorable. Because the mixed-integer linear program has perfect foresight of future energy needs, batteries with degradation costs are always operated using 'just-in-time' charging, which is unrealistic, as no energy is left in the storage system to perform other energy services or to serve as emergency back-up power. To combat this, an inequality constraint on the average annual state-of-charge is imposed, and the sensitivity of system cost to average stored energy, e.g., the cost of system resiliency, can be quantified. Analysis of results has several conclusions, for instance, oversizing of battery storage systems is not a cost burden when battery storage is an optimal solution, as any additional battery capacity can simply be utilized to avoid costs of purchasing energy from a utility.

battery↗

DOE OSTI2024

R&D to Ensure a Scientific Basis for Qualification Tests and Standards (Final Report)

Project return on investment in a photovoltaic (PV) system depends increasingly on maintaining high energy yields, and the system lifetime is a major factor in levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Thus, the rate of PV deployment and the success of these assets depends upon reliable long-term power generation. The overarching objective of this program is to improve photovoltaic (PV) module reliability via development of tests and standards. Where reliability problems or risk are discovered, we can design tests to ensure that these liabilities don't affect future generations of products. Customers can use these tests to understand which products are susceptible to certain degradation mechanisms, and manufacturers can use the tests to design unwanted characteristics out of their products. The work under this program identifies PV reliability needs, performs characterization that provides scientific understanding of targeted degradation mechanisms, and translates those data into practical and predictive test protocols and standards. Major accomplishments include: A model for polarization-type potential induced degradation (PID-p) was developed and validated against experimental data. NREL is currently leading a new edition of IEC 62804-1 for PID detection. PID-p can cause large losses in current and voltage for some module designs on cloudy days. Finite element modeling (FEM) and experiment was used to determine when cells crack in a module. It was shown that cells in landscape orientation are much more likely to crack than those on portrait orientation. Shortly thereafter, the first products with portrait-oriented cells were introduced. Studies of how to test for light and elevated temperature degradation (LeTID) culminated with the publication of IEC TS 63342. Software to predict the progression of LeTID was developed, validated, and made publicly available. Field validated tests and international standards for durability of PV module coatings abrasion, backsheets, and encapsulants were developed. Examples are IEC 62788-1-1, IEC 62788-2 ED2, IEC TS 62788-7-2, IEC 62788-7-3 ED1, IEC 63209-2. NREL led the development a high-temperature testing technical specification, and published guidelines that enable installers to determine whether higher-temperature testing is needed, simply based on location and mounting configuration. In a number of our case studies, variations in the bills of materials or workmanship have been associated with variations in reliability. These observations emphasize the importance of quality assurance to reliability. A framework for criticality (i.e. Pareto) analysis was developed and published. The framework helps us and other researchers determine what problems should be addressed for reliability research to have the biggest industry impact. NREL continues to participate actively in international standards development and stakeholder engagement activities, including organizing an annual PV Reliability Workshop. These activities are important for ensuring we address issues that are relevant and timely, and that we convey our results to those who may benefit.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

The "PVLib" of Degradation: PVDeg

The Photovoltaic (PV) industry constantly aims for lower costs through higher-efficiency cells, improved module designs, and improvements in durability. This leads to the use of new materials, designs, and manufacturing processes, and not always with a sufficient amount of durability testing. To help drive down costs there is a desire to create modules that will last for up to 50 years of service life. To accomplish this, every degradation mode and mechanism must be identified and either eliminated or otherwise mitigated. This involves the extrapolation of laboratory results to the field conditions. There is a need to organize the existing degradation data into an accessible format and to provide industry relevant tools for extrapolation from laboratory to field conditions. While the basic equations used to model degradation are sometimes very simple, the full analysis involves calculations are cumbersome but ubiquitous for many degradation processes. A simplified, modeling framework to accomplish these repetitive processes will facilitate the analysis to help researchers keep up with the rapid pace of technological changes. In this talk, we will describe our progress creating the open-source tool PVDeg. This tool can be used to search for and analyze degradation information and extrapolate PV module performance and durability to field exposure. PVDeg simplifies many of the common foundational computational operations for obtaining meteorological data and using it to generate a model of the PV deployment. This prediction tool repository also contains various degradation models as well as a library of material parameters suitable for estimating the durability assessment of materials and components. We use an integration pipeline approach that allows us to leverage weather data from the National Solar Radiation Database, and other weather sources, to perform geospatial degradation analysis in the US and worldwide. We hope to become a repository that can be used for weathering and degradation analysis for various applications beyond the PV industry. During the talk, we will provide the PVPMC attendees the opportunity to interact with the tool via a Google Collab tutorial they can run on their phones or laptops.

durability↗

DOE OSTI2025

Protein-ligand binding affinity prediction using multi-instance learning with docking structures

Recent advances in 3D structure-based deep learning approaches demonstrate improved accuracy in predicting protein-ligand binding affinity in drug discovery. These methods complement physics-based computational modeling such as molecular docking for virtual high-throughput screening. Despite recent advances and improved predictive performance, most methods in this category primarily rely on utilizing co-crystal complex structures and experimentally measured binding affinities as both input and output data for model training. Nevertheless, co-crystal complex structures are not readily available and the inaccurate predicted structures from molecular docking can degrade the accuracy of the machine learning methods. We introduce a novel structure-based inference method utilizing multiple molecular docking poses for each complex entity. Our proposed method employs multi-instance learning with an attention network to predict binding affinity from a collection of docking poses. We validate our method using multiple datasets, including PDBbind and compounds targeting the main protease of SARS-CoV-2. The results demonstrate that our method leveraging docking poses is competitive with other state-of-the-art inference models that depend on co-crystal structures. This method offers binding affinity prediction without requiring co-crystal structures, thereby increasing its applicability to protein targets lacking such data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Multicontinuum-Theory-Based Approach to the Analysis of Fiber-Reinforced Polymer Composites with Degraded Stiffness and Strength Properties Due to Moisture Absorption

Marine energy generation technologies such as wave and tidal power have great potential in meeting the need for renewable energy in the years ahead. Yet, many challenges remain associated with marine-based systems because of the corrosive environment. Conventional materials like metals are subject to rapid corrosive breakdown, crippling the lifespan of structures in such environments. Fiber-reinforced polymer composites offer an appealing alternative in their strength and corrosion resistance, but can experience degradation of mechanical properties as a result of moisture absorption. An investigation is conducted to test the application of a technique for micromechanical analysis of composites, known as multicontinuum theory and demonstrated in past works, as a mechanism for predicting the effects of prolonged moisture absorption on the performance of fiber-reinforced composites. Experimental tensile tests are performed on composite coupons with and without prolonged exposure to a salt water solution to obtain stiffness and strength properties. Multicontinuum theory is applied in conjunction with micromechanical modeling to deduce the effects of moisture absorption on the behavior of constituent materials within the composites. The results are consistent with experimental observations when guided by known mechanisms and trends from previous studies, indicating multicontinuum theory as a potentially effective tool in predicting the long-term performance of composites in marine environments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine-Learning Assisted Identification of Battery Life Models

Predictive battery life models are commonly utilized to extrapolate degradation trends observed during accelerated aging tests for simulation of degradation in real-world applications. Thus, fitting accelerated aging data as accurately as possible and with low uncertainty is crucial for making believable projections of battery lifetime, but it is challenging to identify algebraic expressions that accurately fit multivariate degradation trends. A review of models published in literature reveal some common expressions for fitting calendar aging data, which is only dependent on temperature and state-of-charge, but no consistency across many models for fitting cycle aging data, indicating the need for a statistically rigorous data driven approach for developing empirical models. This talk will describe a machine-learning assisted method for identification of predictive battery life models utilizing bilevel optimization and symbolic regression. Bilevel optimization with cross-validation is used to statistically determine cell- and stress-dependent model parameters, while symbolic regression identifies both linear and multiplicative candidate expressions to predict stress-dependent degradation rates by selecting low-order subsets of features from a generated feature library. Because model expressions are identified empirically, it is crucial to ensure resulting models behave according to physical expectations, so the stability of models for interpolation or extrapolation is interrogated qualitatively through simulation and quantitatively through cross-validation and uncertainty quantification via bootstrap resampling. This model identification approach substantially improves upon models identified purely using expert judgement in terms of both accuracy and uncertainty. Model simulation and validation is then conducted by deriving a state-equation form of the predictive model, enabling simulation of battery aging under dynamic stresses. This enables validation of the predictive battery model on lab-based tests with varying conditions or on drive-cycle or application-cycle testing protocols. Parameter uncertainty can be carried forward into model simulation, giving lifetime estimates and confidence windows for cell- or system-level lifetime. The financial impact of battery model uncertainty can be estimated by incorporating uncertainty into a technoeconomic model.

battery↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Based Prediction of Airflow Maldistribution in A-Type Heat Exchangers

Airflow maldistribution is one of the primary causes of performance degradation in air-to refrigerant heat exchangers (HX) and has been shown to decrease heat transfer by as much as 35%. As a result, many units are oversized to meet the target capacity, resulting in increased system cost and refrigerant charge. Several studies have explored how characteristics like package type and HX geometry impact the flow profile, but results are restricted to a limited range of parameters and cannot be extrapolated to new designs. In this work, a machine learning (ML) model is trained to predict the inlet flow profile of dry air entering A-type HXs across a broad range of geometries and conditions. Flow profiles are generated using a porous media CFD model and used to train an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) which exhibits maximum and average relative L2 norm errors of 0.48 and 0.05. Additionally, these predictions take less than a second to generate resulting in a speed up factor of 2.42E5 compared to CFD. Component-level simulations are conducted to determine the performance degradation resulting from the predicted airflow maldistribution profiles. The new ML model will enable rapid and accurate prediction of performance degradation resulting from airflow maldistribution in A-type HXs, allowing for more accurate and cost-effective HX design.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Predicting lake surface water phosphorus dynamics using process-guided machine learning

Phosphorus (P) loading to lakes is degrading the quality and usability of water globally. Accurate predictions of lake P dynamics are needed to understand whole-ecosystem P budgets, as well as the consequences of changing lake P concentrations for water quality. However, complex biophysical processes within lakes, along with limited observational data, challenge our capacity to reproduce short-term lake dynamics needed for water quality predictions, as well as long-term dynamics needed to understand broad scale controls over lake P. Here we use an emerging paradigm in modeling, process-guided machine learning (PGML), to produce a phosphorus budget for Lake Mendota (Wisconsin, USA) and to accurately predict epilimnetic phosphorus over a time range of days to decades. In our implementation of PGML, which we term a Process-Guided Recurrent Neural Network (PGRNN), we combine a process-based model for lake P with a recurrent neural network, and then constrain the predictions with ecological principles. We test independently the process-based model, the recurrent neural network, and the PGRNN to evaluate the overall approach. The process-based model accounted for most of the observed pattern in lake P; however it missed the long-term trend in lake P and had the worst performance in predicting winter and summer P in surface waters. The root mean square error (RMSE) for the process-based model, the recurrent neural network, and the PGRNN was 33.0 μg P L -1 , 22.7 μg P L -1 , and 20.7 μg P L -1 , respectively. All models performed better during summer, with RMSE values for the three models (same order) equal to 14.3 μg P L -1 , 10.9 μg P L -1 , and 10.7 μg P L -1 . Although the PGRNN had only marginally better RMSE during summer, it had lower bias and reproduced long-term decreases in lake P missed by the other two models. For all seasons and all years, the recurrent neural network had better predictions than process alone, with root mean square error (RMSE) of 23.8 μg P L -1 and 28.0 μg P L -1 , respectively. The output of PGRNN indicated that new processes related to water temperature, thermal stratification, and long term changes in external loads are needed to improve the process model. By using ecological knowledge, as well as the information content of complex data, PGML shows promise as a technique for accurate prediction in messy, real-world ecological dynamics, while providing valuable information that can improve our understanding of process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Metallic fuel cladding degradation model development and evaluation for BISON

Fuel cladding chemical interaction (FCCI) and coolant cladding chemical interaction (CCCI), both consume stainless-steel cladding in sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs), and effectively degrade cladding mechanical performance through thickness reduction. Therefore, FCCI/CCCI and corresponding cladding degradation models are essential for advanced fuel performance codes, such as BISON, to reliably predict cladding behavior in SFRs. Here, we report the development and implementation efforts for BISON's FCCI/CCCI correlations and cladding degradation models based on U.S. legacy metallic fuel data. The models were evaluated using Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) program X447/A experiment data supported by the ongoing integration project enabling coordinated application of BISON and EBR-II fuel irradiation and physics database (FIPD). Furthermore, the implemented models were demonstrated to improve BISON's capabilities of predicting cladding damage and degradation behavior that is more consistent with post-irradiation examination observations. Additionally, some limitations of current BISON modules are identified, which are to be overcome through the BISON-FIPD integration efforts.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2006

Phase Stability of a Powder Metallurgy Disk Superalloy

Advanced powder metallurgy superalloy disks in aerospace turbine engines now entering service can be exposed to temperatures approaching 700 C, higher than those previously encountered. They also have higher levels of refractory elements, which can increase mechanical properties at these temperatures but can also encourage phase instabilities during service. Microstructural changes including precipitation of topological close pack phase precipitation and coarsening of existing gamma' precipitates can be slow at these temperatures, yet potentially significant for anticipated disk service times exceeding 1,000 h. The ability to quantify and predict such potential phase instabilities and degradation of capabilities is needed to insure structural integrity and air worthiness of propulsion systems over the full life cycle. A prototypical advanced disk superalloy was subjected to high temperature exposures, and then evaluated. Microstructural changes and corresponding changes in mechanical properties were quantified. The results will be compared to predictions of microstructure modeling software.

Gabb, Timothy P.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Physics-informed Data-driven Degradation and Prognostic For Hydropower System

The hydropower system is a cyber-physical system, and the industry is experiencing high operation and maintenance (O&M) costs along with increasing unplanned outages, primarily due to aging equipment and new asset loading patterns. Current (O&M) practices in asset management are predominantly reactive rather than predictive and systematic. To address these challenges, a proposed physics-informed data-driven degradation model aims to simulate the health of components in various environments. Its purpose is to accurately characterize wear and fatigue in the pilot components of hydropower systems. Additionally, the model provides informed confidence in prognostic predictions concerning asset degradation and remaining life.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive Data-Driven Model Predictive Control for Heat Pipe Microreactors

To establish a technical basis for self-regulating microreactors, a model predictive control (MPC) system is investigated to proactively respond to anomalies and disturbances in anticipation of potential deviations from operating setpoints. Due to the difficulty of developing a physics-based surrogate model that can accurately match plant data in various operating conditions, machine learning algorithms are used in MPC, which allow for learning from both simulation and operation data, thus efficiently describing the targeted transient with arbitrary accuracy. However, one of the biggest concerns in applying ML algorithms like artificial neural networks (ANNs) is that the predictive capabilities of ANN are limited by training data. If there are gaps between the training and target domain, the accuracy of an ANN can degrade significantly when it is used to predict unseen data. To improve the predictive capability of ANN and enable a confident use of data-driven MPCs outside the training data, this study proposes an adaptive data-driven MPC framework. The system will monitor the discrepancy between plant responses and surrogate predictions, fine-tune the ANN-based surrogate when a large discrepancy is detected, and continue MPC operation with updated surrogates. The framework is demonstrated on a point kinetic model for microreactors. The hyperparameters of the update strategy, including layers to update, error thresholds, learning rate discount, and number of data points used for fine-tuning, are optimized so the simulated microreactor is able to follow changes in setpoint with the smallest of deviations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗