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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Effect of laser preheat in magnetized liner inertial fusion at OMEGA

Integrated magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) experiments on the OMEGA laser system are modeled to investigate the effects of laser preheat on implosion performance. In both simulations and experiments, preheating the fuel with a laser enhances the neutron yield, with the maximum yield occurring at an optimal preheat laser energy. Increasing the preheat energy past the optimal value reduces the neutron yield. In simulations, the rate of the drop in neutron yield depends on the inclusion of the Nernst effect. The Nernst effect advects the magnetic field away from the center of the fuel region during the preheat stage of MagLIF on OMEGA and weakens magnetic-flux compression. If the Nernst effect is not included, the simulated drop in yield past the optimal preheat laser energy is more gradual as opposed to the sharper drop seen in experiments. Simulations are able to model trend in measured ion temperatures seen in experiments. Here, a mix model is used to show that including mix from the wall in the simulated fuel region further degrades the yield and lowers the optimal preheat laser energy. Simulations with mix predict that increasing the initial axial magnetic field may still enhance yield performance in integrated implosions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical analysis of displacement damage in small devices from neutron and ion irradiation

Modern semiconductor devices, such as gate-all-around nanosheet field-effect transistors (GAA NS FETs), are smaller than displacement damage cascades from fission neutrons. In this regime, device failure may occur through low-probability single events, rather than by parametric degradation previously seen in larger devices. Here, we present a statistical model that predicts the probability of a damage event in a small device and the probability distribution of the magnitude, i.e., number of displacements within the device, from each event. The model is developed first for neutron irradiation and then for energetic ion irradiation. The model is consistent with results from recent experiments in which lithium-ion irradiation produced stepwise increases in subthreshold current in GAA NS FETs.

Wampler, W. R.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ferroelectricity in boron-substituted aluminum nitride thin films

This manuscript demonstrates ferroelectricity in B-substituted AlN thin films and a complementary set of first-principles calculations to understand their structure-property relationships. Al 1–x B x N films are grown by dual-cathode reactive magnetron sputtering on (110)W/(001)Al 2 O 3 substrates at 300°C at compositions spanning x = 0 to x = 0.20. X-ray diffraction studies indicate a decrease in both the c and a lattice parameters with increasing B concentration, resulting in a decrease in unit cell volume and a constant c/a axial ratio of 1.60 over this composition range. Films with 0.02 ≤ x ≤ 0.15 display ferroelectric switching with remanent polarizations exceeding 125 μCcm –2 while maintaining band gap energies of > 5.2eV. The large band gap allows low frequency hysteresis measurement (200 Hz) with modest leakage contributions. At B concentrations of x > 0.15, c-axis orientation deteriorates and ferroelectric behavior is degraded. Furthermore, density-functional theory calculations corroborate the structural observations and provide predictions for the wurtzite u parameter, polarization reversal magnitudes, and composition-dependent coercive fields.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

DuraMAT: Building a Consortium to Accelerate the Photovoltaic Module Reliability Learning Cycle

Durable and reliable photovoltaic (PV) modules are critical to enabling an efficient transition to sustainable energy generation. The rate at which new module designs and materials are developed and deployed currently outpaces the rate at which we can identify failure mechanisms and understand degradation rates. Increasing the service life of PV modules, and our ability to predict performance over time, requires more durable materials and designs, better durability testing, more extensive material characterization, robust modeling, and methods to cross-examine historical performance data to extract meaningful results. This is a multidisciplinary challenge that requires expertise from a broad range of fields and, therefore, benefits significantly from a collaborative approach. In this Perspective, we outline the approach taken by the Durable Module Materials Consortium (DuraMAT), present a few case studies where our approach was successful, and provide an outlook on where this approach might be applied as the PV technology landscape continues to rapidly evolve. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards Validation of Advanced Accelerated Stress Testing Protocols through Failure Analysis and Materials Characterization

As the lifetime of photovoltaic modules increases toward the goal of 50 years, accelerated stress testing is critical to assessing the viability of newer, improved, and often cheaper materials in the field. However, the validation of accelerated testing to reproduce field failure has remained elusive. The recent developments of more advanced stress testing protocols utilizing sequential and combined stressors have provided another opportunity for validation. Using a suite of mechanical, chemical, and structural characterization methods we report the development of our approach using a known bad backsheet “AAA.” We then apply this approach to PVDF-based backsheets to further confirm the generalizability of this approach. The outcome of this work is two-fold: (1) validation of advanced accelerated testing protocols which will enable the prediction of field failures in new materials, and (2) deeper insights into the degradation mechanisms observed through the extensive characterization allowing for improved materials engineering and development.

accelerated aging↗
DOE OSTI2023

Post Irradiation Examination of Pressurized Water Reactor Stainless Steel Internal Components

Internal structural components of pressurized water reactors (PWR), such as baffle former bolts, are subjected to significant neutron irradiation and mechanical stresses at elevated temperatures during plant operation. Over the long operation of the power plant, these conditions lead to potential degradation and reduced load-carrying capacity of these bolts. To understand property degradation more fully, to confirm the results of experimental irradiation programs, and to predict operational lifetime performance of structural materials in internal components, post irradiation examination of harvested materials from operating nuclear reactors is required. In this work, two high fluence 316 stainless steel baffle former bolts were retrieved from a commercial Westinghouse two-loop downflow type PWR and then sectioned for analysis via mechanical testing and microstructural characterization. The irradiation damage fluctuated along the bolt length with damage levels from 15 to 41 displacements per atom with the bolt head receiving approximately twice the neutron damage levels as that of the bolt thread section. Mechanical testing evaluations showed extensive irradiation hardening and a sharp decrease in fracture toughness in all parts of the bolt, though with limited variation along the bolt length. Microstructural characterization using analytical scanning transmission electron microscopy and atom probe tomography showed significant radiation induced precipitation, segregation, and dislocation loop and cavity formation. However, unlike the mechanical behavior, there was considerable variation along the bolt length but opposite of what may be expected, with more precipitation and cavity formation in the bolt thread where the neutron radiation dose is less than in the bolt head where the neutron radiation dose is higher. The cause of this variation is likely due to gradients in temperature, neutron energy spectra, and gamma irradiation.

Lach, Tim↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transformer Health Monitoring Using Dissolved Gas Analysis

Power plants use transformers for supplying generated electricity to the grid. As these transformers age and degrade, they produce specific gases. These gases can be monitored and used to predict when maintenance should be completed. This code uses four complementary techniques to predict when maintenance should be performed based on gas concentrations within the transformer.

Walker, CodyM [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Id↗
DOE OSTI2023

Grid Services Load Shift Baseline Degradation Analysis Methodology v1

As demand flexibility becomes more common, the mix and frequency of a range of demand flexibility strategies will introduce potential biases into baselines, i.e., the time period immediately prior to a LS event may include other LS or DF events. Baseline degradation assessment provides an approach to quantify how these biases begin to compromise predictive accuracy. Heatmaps, based on each month of the year provides a granular view of a given model's predictive capability. However, for comparing multiple algorithms, separately for weekdays and weekends, aggregating results to seasons provides a simpler means of comparison while still allowing for review of variations by time of day and time of year

Fernandes, Samuel↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fungal and bacterial growth variation due to drought and nitrogen addition experimental treatments. Loma Ridge Experimental Project. 2010-2012

Terrestrial ecosystem models assume that microbial communities respond instantaneously, or are immediately resilient, to environmental change. Here we tested this assumption by quantifying the resilience of a leaf litter community to changes in precipitation or nitrogen availability. By manipulating composition within a global change experiment, we decoupled the legacies of abiotic parameters versus that of the microbial community itself. After one rainy season, more variation in fungal composition could be explained by the original microbial inoculum than the litterbag environment (18% versus 5.5% of total variation). This compositional legacy persisted for 3 years, when 6% of the variability in fungal composition was still explained by the microbial origin. In contrast, bacterial composition was generally more resilient than fungal composition. Microbial functioning (measured as decomposition rate) was not immediately resilient to the global change manipulations; decomposition depended on both the contemporary environment and rainfall the year prior. Finally, using metagenomic sequencing, we showed that changes in precipitation, but not nitrogen availability, altered the potential for bacterial carbohydrate degradation, suggesting why the functional consequences of the two experiments may have differed. Predictions of how terrestrial ecosystem processes respond to environmental change may thus be improved by considering the legacies of microbial communities. This data package includes ten csv files (five data files and their corresponding data dictionaries) and one file-level metadata excel file. Data files contains information about which plots were exposed to treatments related to drought and nitrogen, information about litter bags reciprocal transplants manipulation for water input and nitrogen, detail information about water addition, precipitation records, and litter variables collected. Data dictionary files include detail explanation for each column in the data files. The file-level metadata file describes each file mentioned above. All the analyses were done using the R software.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Agent-Based Coordination Scheme for PV Integration (ABC4PV)

Renewables and especially photovoltaics (PV) have benefitted significantly from a host of incentives and policies targeted toward enhanced integration and adoption of specific energy technologies. However, with the push to move forward into a subsidy-free market framework, behind-the-meter residential PV applications have generally struggled to retain their value (unlike utility scale and commercial projects) [1]. This project focused on developing control-theoretic solutions aimed at improving the integration and interaction of behind-the-meter residential PV with other distribution system assets (controllable and non-controllable) to enhance the integrated value of residential PV. To this end, a suite of decentralized control methodologies have been developed to enable effective coordination and control of behind-the-meter residential load customers’ PV, battery storage systems (BSS), controllable loads and other similar assets within a distribution feeder. This interaction aims at procuring energy savings and, thus, energy bill savings. The main source of savings is drawn from reducing the effect of demand charge pricing and is realized at the feeder level, assuming community level interaction and management among the aforementioned assets. Optimal control of the assets is implemented with a distributed optimization methodology, leveraging consensus-based algorithms. The results gathered from the optimal control simulations demonstrates that the savings can be duly achieved and the algorithm decision times (to dynamically control asset set points, for example) are fast. As for the overall efficiency of PV+BSS systems, to procure energy savings from curtailment of the demand charge pricing effects, the optimal control is set up so as to minimize the variance of the load for all customers, throughout a feeder and throughout time in a rolling horizon scheduling with model predictive control. The control takes into account inter-temporal electrochemical storage (battery) degradation costs: specifically, we have developed a long-term lifetime model for the BSS that weighs in the effect of the degradation factor in the dispatch formulations, thus, a considerable operating cost that affects energy decision making. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE – redefined for the purpose of quantifying asset integration effectiveness through the customers’ energy cost) is shown to be below the threshold set for the combined PV+BSS topology of $ 0.14/kWh for multiple cases of PV penetration all the way up to 50%, provided that a policy of shared ownership of and savings is in place. Further, the LCOE calculated for the case before the deployment PV+BSS systems is also achievable, i.e. the deployment of PV+BSS, if planned and scheduled optimally. will have no effect on customers’ energy costs. From the control methodology viewpoint, the developed consensus-based algorithms are shown to converge for a wide range of problem cases (spanning normal operating scenarios and contingencies), guaranteeing dispatch solutions under forecasting errors, communication break-downs and cyber-security attacks. The proposed control solutions are scalable and real-time implementable, with dispatch computations and device set-point updates converging in less than 2s in most practical instances of the above events.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development and Integration of a Stochastic Clad Damage Propagation Model into PRONGHORN-SC Subchannel Analysis Code

The failure of fuel pins in nuclear reactors is intrinsically stochastic. Typically, a combination of variation in manufacturing that affects the material characteristics and the fuel assembly dimensions, variation in operating conditions, such as local power, coolant flow rate, and irradiation induced changes in material properties lead to a large uncertainty in failure margin of the fuel pins. Failure, therefore, may occur in exceptional pins with adverse combinations of these variations. Upon a metal fuel pin (U-Pu-Zr/HT9) failure, depressurization of the fuel pin takes place by release of fission gas, liquid sodium bond, and potentially solid fuel particles or molten/eutectic fuel droplets through the hole in cladding. The effect of a fission gas jet on neighbor fuel pins and possible propagation of a clad damage during normal operation was studied experimentally in 1970s and it was found that the post-failure fission gas jet insulates the jet impingement area of the target fuel pin surface and could increase the target pin’s surface temperature by as much as 100 – 200 K during the failed pin depressurization. It was concluded that the effect should not lead to fuel pin failure propagation during normal operation. In accident scenarios of sodium and lead fast reactors such as Unprotected Loss-Of-Flow (ULOF) or Unprotected Transient Over Power (UTOP), the fuel pins can be subjected to higher clad temperatures and fuel pin pressures or fuel clad mechanical/chemical interaction where thermal creep margin becomes significantly lower compared to the normal operation conditions. Therefore, possible stochastic failure and the post-failure fission gas/fuel jet impingement could be critical in order to predict fuel pin failure propagation. Pin depressurization due to fission gas release may degrade the heat transfer by formation of a gas blanket on a neighboring pin surface, which is a local phenomenon, and by causing coolant flow deceleration and starvation, which could affect a surrounding region as well. Furthermore, the potential presence of solid fuel particles or molten fuel at the time of clad failure could boost post-failure jet induced degradation even further. The present study models the U-Pu-Zr/HT9 metal fuel pin failure and stochastic clad damage propagation by biased sampling based on a Cumulative Damage Fraction (CDF) type clad failure criterion and the normal distribution of fuel failure probability density as a function of logarithm of Cumulative Damage Fraction. In addition, the effect of post-failure fission gas jet on heat transfer degradation is modeled for the target pins. This model is called stochastic Clad Damage Propagation (CDAP). The CDAP model is now fully integrated into developmental version of PRONGHORN-SC subchannel analysis code, allowing for modeling local failures and its propagation potential. Section 2 describes the components of the CDAP models. Section 3 describes the model implementation to PRONGHORN-SC and input specifications. Section 4 describes the CDAP model validation coupled to PRONGHORN-SC.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterization and Quantification of Radiation-Induced Clusters/Precipitates in RPV Steels Using STEM-EDS and Machine Learning

Over the operational lifespan of a nuclear reactor, reactor pressure vessel (RPV) steels are subjected to significant neutron irradiation, resulting in complex microstructural changes and the consequent degradation of mechanical properties. Various physically motivated correlation models have been developed to predict neutron irradiation-induced embrittlement of RPVs under different irradiation conditions. However, the efficient and accurate characterizations and quantification of radiation-induced clusters in RPVs are still challenging, which will affect the precision of the predictive models for embrittlement of RPV components. In the DOE Visiting Faculty Program (VFP) research work at Oak Ridge National Lab (ORNL), I integrate machine learning to aid Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy – Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy (STEM-EDS) analyses, which improve the characterization and quantification of radiation-induced clusters in RPV steels, thereby enabling more accurate predictions of material behavior under irradiation. The surveillance base- and welded- RPV steels were annealed at various temperatures of 340 °C, 450 °C and 500 °C for up to 168 hours, respectively. Afterwards, I have characterized radiation-induced clusters using advanced STEM-EDS techniques and subsequently applying machine learning algorithms to analyze and refine STEM-EDS datasets, enhancing the quantification of clusters compositions and distributions. In the end, an efficient workflow for integrating STEM-EDS data analysis with machine learning to address challenges including noise reduction has been developed. The completion of this VFP work will support bridge critical gaps in the accurate quantification of radiation-induced clusters in RPV steels using STEM-EDS and support the development of more precise models for predicting RPV embrittlement in the Light Water Reactor Sustainability program supported by Department of Energy and enhancing the collaboration between ORNL and Alred University. The outcome of the VFP project will leverage a few research papers submission to peer-reviewed journals in the relevant scientific field and a few oral presentations at national and international conferences.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Description of FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment

The urgency to deliver fusion power is growing now more than ever, with increasing pressure for both public programs and private companies to meet milestones timelines and overcome significant remaining technical challenges to ensure growth of a nascent fusion industry in time to meet rapidly growing clean energy demands. With incredible advancements in computation and years of investment in fusion model development and validation, integrated modeling is poised to fill a key role in accelerating the timeline to a fusion pilot plant (FPP). Future fusion pilot plants will operate in regimes far beyond current experience, and device design will rely on physics-based prediction and extrapolation. Many concepts will also rely on simulation to assess safety (shielding, tritium management, materials activation and lifetimes), economics and scalability before the decision to build. Importantly, integrated simulation can be used to reveal and solve the complexities of system integration that may otherwise not be apparent in physical components or models developed in isolation. New experimental test facilities that produce relevant conditions to validate and resolve key technical challenges for various subsystems (materials, blankets, fuel cycle, etc.) have been repeatedly called for by the fusion community but are not yet realized. Integrated modeling has an important role in identifying realistic load conditions (thermal, electromagnetic, plasma, neutron and photon loads, etc.) and defining the components and experiments for these test facilities in order to ensure meaningful validation that sufficiently reduces modeling uncertainties and technical risk for the full integrated reactor. The Fusion REactor Design and Assessment (FREDA) SciDAC project is building a component-based integrated modeling framework & data structure to enable self-consistent, multi-fidelity, iterative optimization workflows for the fusion reactor design process. FREDA aims to shorten the time to viable designs by providing a set of flexible workflows to support the various stages of the design process using an integrated model hierarchy, ranging from the simple analytic descriptions to the highest fidelity, theory-based plasma and engineering modeling developed by the fusion and fission communities. These tools are expected to be needed for timely support of FPP design in the milestone program and in the FIRE collaboratives. The plasma simulation backbone of FREDA is IPS-FASTRAN with newly developed coupled Core-Edge Pedestal-SOL (CESOL) workflows, which is being extended to the far-SOL region up to the plasma facing components. FREDA incorporates the FERMI engineering modeling suite and will enable self-consistent evaluation of the thermal shields, limiters, blanket, magnets, and other surrounding structures with predictions of temperatures, erosion, dpa, activation, tritium generation and transport, creep, corrosion, material degradation, etc. Parametric generation of 3D CAD enables rapid iteration of component geometry in response to plasma and loading specifications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Corrosion of Steel During Long-Term Exposure to Evolving Cementitious Environments

SRS is proceeding with closure of the H-Area Tank Farm (HTF) and F-Area Tank Farm (FTF). Closure consists of removing the bulk waste, heel removal, and filling the tank with tailored grout formulations. The long-term performance of the concrete and steel materials of construction and the closure grout is an important consideration for Performance Assessment (PA) of closed tanks in FTF and HTF. Over PA timeframes of hundreds, thousands, to tens of thousands of years, the chemical and physical properties of the concrete and steel materials will slowly degrade due to environmental exposure and material aging. In the interim these materials will provide a barrier to the leaching of radionuclides into the soil. Savannah River Remediation (SRR) is updating relevant portions of these analysis inputs to support an imminent revision to the HTF PA and a future update to the FTF PA. This analysis provides an update to the previous PA inputs for steel corrosion. The Central Scenario for the PA analysis includes three postulated modeling cases: 1) Realistic Case, 2) Compliance Case, and 3) Pessimistic Case. This analysis also included a Fast Flow Path Case. This latter case considered the circumstance where the initial condition of the concrete was a completely degraded state and that grout shrinkage exposed the steel to the soil environment immediately. In effect, the steel was unprotected by the concrete and grout. The cases have various degrees of conservatism considered. Chemical, physical and tank configuration parameters were investigated to understand their effects on the predicted time to release of the contaminants. The assessment reviewed the initial tank and steel configuration, service life degradation of the steel, and potential corrosion mechanisms associated with degradation of the concrete materials.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Proteogenomic insights suggest druggable pathways in endometrial carcinoma

We characterized a prospective endometrial carcinoma (EC) cohort containing 138 tumors and 20 enriched normal tissues using 10 different omics platforms. Targeted quantitation of two peptides can predict antigen processing and presentation machinery activity, and may inform patient selection for immunotherapy. Association analysis between MYC activity and metformin treatment in both patients and cell lines suggests a potential role for metformin treatment in non-diabetic patients with elevated MYC activity. PIK3R1 in-frame indels are associated with elevated AKT phosphorylation and increased sensitivity to AKT inhibitors. CTNNB1 hotspot mutations are concentrated near phosphorylation sites mediating pS45-induced degradation of β-catenin, which may render Wnt-FZD antagonists ineffective. Deep learning accurately predicts EC subtypes and mutations from histopathology images, which may be useful for rapid diagnosis. Overall, this study identified molecular and imaging markers that can be further investigated to guide patient stratification for more precise treatment of EC.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bacterial community dynamics explain carbon mineralization and assimilation in soils of different land-use history

Soil dwelling microorganisms are key players in the terrestrial carbon cycle, driving both the degradation and stabilization of soil organic matter. Bacterial community structure and function vary with respect to land use; yet the ecological drivers of this variation remain poorly described and difficult to predict. For this work, we conducted a multi-substrate DNA-stable isotope probing experiment across cropland, old-field, and forest habitats to link carbon mineralization dynamics with the dynamics of bacterial growth and carbon assimilation. We tracked the movement of 13 C derived from five distinct carbon sources as it was assimilated into bacterial DNA over time. We show that carbon mineralization, community composition, and carbon assimilation dynamics all differed with respect to land use. We also show that microbial community dynamics affect carbon assimilation dynamics and are associated with soil DNA content. Soil DNA yield is easy to measure and may be useful in predicting microbial community dynamics linked to soil carbon cycling. Soil dwelling microorganisms are key players in the terrestrial carbon cycle, driving both the degradation and stabilization of soil organic matter. Microbial communities vary with respect to land use, but we still have an incomplete understanding of how variation in community structure links to variation in community function. DNA stable isotope probing (DNA-SIP) is a high-resolution method that can identify specific microbial taxa that assimilate carbon in situ. We conducted a large-scale multi-substrate DNA-SIP experiment to explore differences in bacterial activity across land-use regimes. We show that microbial community dynamics vary with land use, that these dynamics are linked to soil carbon cycling, and that they are associated with easily measured soil properties.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experimental and computational investigations on the SO 2 poisoning of (La 0.8 Sr 0.2 ) 0.95 MnO 3 cathode materials

To study the formation of detrimental phases under the sulfur gas impurity to the long-term degradation in the LSM cathode material, the classic cathode material, (La 0.8 Sr 0.2 ) 0.95 MnO 3 (LSM), was prepared, sintered, and annealed at 800, 900, and 1000°C in the sulfur-containing atmospheres, respectively. Through X-Ray Diffraction (XRD), Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM), and Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) techniques, as well as the CALPHAD (Computer Coupling of Phase Diagrams and Thermochemistry) methodology, the secondary phases, especially the detrimental ones, under different conditions were predicted and experimentally verified correspondingly. Furthermore, sulfur poisoning results indicate that the accelerated tests might have degradation mechanisms different from actual operation conditions. More importantly, comprehensive comparisons among various impurity-containing conditions were also made to recommend better operation parameters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Genomic prediction of switchgrass winter survivorship across diverse lowland populations

Abstract In the North-Central United States, lowland ecotype switchgrass can increase yield by up to 50% compared with locally adapted but early flowering cultivars. However, lowland ecotypes are not winter tolerant. The mechanism for winter damage is unknown but previously has been associated with late flowering time. This study investigated heading date (measured for two years) and winter survivorship (measured for three years) in a multi-generation population generated from two winter-hardy lowland individuals and diverse southern lowland populations. Sequencing data (311,776 markers) from 1,306 individuals were used to evaluate genome-wide trait prediction through cross-validation and progeny prediction (n = 52). Genetic variance for heading date and winter survivorship was additive with high narrow-sense heritability (0.64 and 0.71, respectively) and reliability (0.68 and 0.76, respectively). The initial negative correlation between winter survivorship and heading date degraded across generations (F1 r = −0.43, pseudo-F2 r = −0.28, pseudo-F2 progeny r = −0.15). Within-family predictive ability was moderately high for heading date and winter survivorship (0.53 and 0.52, respectively). A multi-trait model did not improve predictive ability for either trait. Progeny predictive ability was 0.71 for winter survivorship and 0.53 for heading date. These results suggest that lowland ecotype populations can obtain sufficient survival rates in the northern United States with two or three cycles of effective selection. Despite accurate genomic prediction, naturally occurring winter mortality successfully isolated winter tolerant genotypes and appears to be an efficient method to develop high-yielding, cold-tolerant switchgrass cultivars.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗