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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the Uncertainty in the Technical Performance Level Assessment for Wave Energy

In recent years, the design and development of wave energy converters (WECs) has been explored with intense interest, with highly varying design concepts emerging globally across both research enterprises and industry. The design space for WECs is vast - many concepts ranging in functionality, control systems, power development systems, materials, and scale have been ideated and prototyped, but WEC technology has yet to converge. One critical element of the technology trajectory that governs the speed of adoption is the performance of a WEC concept. In analogous but more-established industries (such as aerospace, and environmentally sustainable electronics design), performance assessment is a quantitative method, based on historical data, that is used as an iterative tool to improve the design of these systems early on in the design process. Though more nascent than these approaches, in wave energy R&D, WEC performance has been assessed using the Technology Performance Level (TPL) assessment, which provides designers with a quantitative score, situating a grid-scale WEC concept on a scale from 1-9 (1 being the lowest performance, and 9 being the highest, trending with the oft-used Technology Readiness Level, or TRL). The TPL assessment is designed to be used during design iteration, when a WEC concept is fully ideated, to enable designers to consider potential means of improving the downstream performance of the concept. One concern that may be slowing the adoption of TPL among WEC developers is the inherent uncertainty in the assessment, and how uncertainty in the individual questions asked as part of the assessment may contribute to perceived inaccuracies in the final score. In this work, we explore the uncertainty present in the assessment and quantify this uncertainty using both traditional mathematical operations and a Monte Carlo simulation. Results imply areas of improvement of the TPL assessment, where reducing uncertainty will be most helpful to end users, enabling both TPL practitioners and users to understand with more accuracy those design elements that can be improved to impact device performance most substantively.

techno-economic analysis↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Short-Lived Isotope Counting System (SLICS) to measure reaction cross sections producing light, beta-decaying nuclei on OMEGA

A new activation detector optimized for short-lived isotopes was designed, installed, and tested on OMEGA. The Short-Lived Isotope Counting System (SLICS) can be positioned as close as 35 cm from the OMEGA target chamber center in a ten-inch-manipulator. Stable target samples can be mounted on the front end of the detector assembly to undergo triton-, deuteron-, or neutron-induced reactions that produce short-lived reaction products that beta decay. The emitted betas are detected in a phoswich configuration to eliminate the gamma background. The detector is optimized for isotopes with half-lives from 150 ms to 20 s, filling a gap in OMEGA’s current activation detectors for isotopes with half-lives >5 min. In a pilot study, SLICS achieved an efficiency of 24.5% ± 2.0% for counting 8Li, with a total of 505.8 ± 4.4 qualifying events. Using the existing triton laser-ion acceleration platform on OMEGA, this detector can be used to measure rarely studied tritium-induced reactions on light nuclei with an estimated uncertainty of 12%. As a result, the design of the detector and its performance during a first experiment employing deuterium as a surrogate will be discussed.

Beta spectrometry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effect on compression of lowering the design adiabat in the SQ-n campaign

A set of experiments in the SQ-n campaign attempts to increase the compression in layered implosions by reducing the design adiabat from 3.0 down to ∼ 2.6. The experiments utilize nanocrystalline high density carbon ablators driven by a ramped laser pulse drive. Contrary to expectations, the lower design adiabat layered implosion reaches the same level of compression, within the measurement uncertainty, as the previous set of SQ-n layered implosions at the higher design adiabat. Here, we examine potential explanations for this result, including incomplete melting or refreezing of the ablator after the first shock passes into the fuel layer, reproducibility, and dopant areal density. We also discuss additional potential paths to reaching lower adiabat including increased dopant areal density, ramped dopant profiles, and increased initial capsule size which are also based on experimental campaign results from the National Ignition Facility.

Physics - Plasma physics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimal Control for X-Ray Mircroscopes

In this article, a systematic framework for designing the control for fine positioning (scanning) stages of X-ray microscopes is presented. This framework facilitates designs that simultaneously achieve specifications on positioning resolution and tracking bandwidth while guaranteeing robustness of the closed loop device to unmodeled uncertainties. We use robust optimal control techniques for modeling, quantifying design objectives and system-specific challenges, and designing the control laws. The control designs were implemented on a three degree of freedom piezoactuated flexure stages dedicated for fine positioning of X-ray optics. Experimental results demonstrate significant improvements in positioning performance of 134%, 150%, and 132% in tracking bandwidths along the lateral (X), vertical (Y), and beam (Z) directions, respectively, when compared to proportional-integral-derivative controller designs. This was achieved while keeping similar or better positioning resolution and robustness measures. Fast scanning for X-ray imaging was demonstrated in both the step scan and flyscan modes, where bandwidth was improved by over 450 times with flyscan compared to the step scan.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A machine learning approach to emulation and biophysical parameter estimation with the Community Land Model, version 5

Abstract. Land models are essential tools for understanding and predicting terrestrial processes and climate–carbon feedbacks in the Earth system, but uncertainties in their future projections are poorly understood. Improvements in physical process realism and the representation of human influence arguably make models more comparable to reality but also increase the degrees of freedom in model configuration, leading to increased parametric uncertainty in projections. In this work we design and implement a machine learning approach to globally calibrate a subset of the parameters of the Community Land Model, version 5 (CLM5) to observations of carbon and water fluxes. We focus on parameters controlling biophysical features such as surface energy balance, hydrology, and carbon uptake. We first use parameter sensitivity simulations and a combination of objective metrics including ranked global mean sensitivity to multiple output variables and non-overlapping spatial pattern responses between parameters to narrow the parameter space and determine a subset of important CLM5 biophysical parameters for further analysis. Using a perturbed parameter ensemble, we then train a series of artificial feed-forward neural networks to emulate CLM5 output given parameter values as input. We use annual mean globally aggregated spatial variability in carbon and water fluxes as our emulation and calibration targets. Validation and out-of-sample tests are used to assess the predictive skill of the networks, and we utilize permutation feature importance and partial dependence methods to better interpret the results. The trained networks are then used to estimate global optimal parameter values with greater computational efficiency than achieved by hand tuning efforts and increased spatial scale relative to previous studies optimizing at a single site. By developing this methodology, our framework can help quantify the contribution of parameter uncertainty to overall uncertainty in land model projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Role of Snowmelt Temporal Pattern in Flood Estimation for a Small Snow‐Dominated Basin in the Sierra Nevada

Abstract Prior research confirmed the substantial bias from using precipitation‐based intensity‐duration‐frequency curves (PREC‐IDF) in design flood estimates and proposed next‐generation IDF curves (NG‐IDF) that represent both rainfall and snow processes in runoff generation. This study improves the NG‐IDF technology for a snow‐dominated test basin in the Sierra Nevada. A well‐validated physics‐based hydrologic model, the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), is used to continuously simulate snowmelt and streamflow that are used as benchmark data sets to systematically assess the NG‐IDF technology. We find that, for the studied small snow‐dominated basin, the use of standard rainfall hyetographs in the NG‐IDF technology leads to substantial underestimation of design floods. Thus, we propose probabilistic hyetographs that can represent unique patterns of events with different underlying mechanisms. For the test basin where flooding events are generated entirely by snowmelt, we develop a hyetograph that characterizes snowmelt temporal patterns, which greatly improves the performance of NG‐IDF technology in design flood estimates. In contrast to the standard rainfall hyetographs characterized by a symmetrically peaked, bell‐shaped curve, the snowmelt hyetograph displays a more rapid rise (i.e., greater intensity) and a distinct diurnal pattern influenced by solar energy input. The results also show that the uncertainty of hyetography plays an important role in design flood estimation and can have important implications for future flood projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Genomic materials design: CALculation of PHAse Dynamics

The CALPHAD system of fundamental phase-level databases, now known as the Materials Genome, has enabled a mature technology of computational materials design and qualification that has already met the acceleration goals of the national Materials Genome Initiative. Here, as first commercialized by QuesTek Innovations, the methodology combines efficient genomic-level parametric design of new material composition and process specifications with multidisciplinary simulation-based forecasting of manufacturing variation, integrating efficient uncertainty management. Recent projects demonstrated under the multi-institutional CHiMaD Design Center notably include novel alloys designed specifically for additive manufacturing. With the proven success of the CALPHAD-based Materials Genome technology, current university research emphasizes new methodologies for affordable accelerated expansion of more accurate CALPHAD databases. Rapid adoption of these new capabilities by US apex corporations has compressed the materials design and development cycle to under 2 years, enabling a new “materials concurrency” integrated into a new level of concurrent engineering supporting an unprecedented level of manufacturing innovation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

An International Round-Robin Study on Thermoelectric Module Testing and Development of Standard Power Generation Modules

An international round-robin study on thermoelectric power generation modules was conducted with nine participating laboratories. Two types of commercially available bismuth telluride modules, 30 mm × 30 mm and 40 mm × 40 mm, were used. A test protocol was followed with five temperature set points from 50°C to 150°C. Graphite sheets were used as thermal interface materials with test pressure at 100 psi (0.69 MPa). The results showed large lab-to-lab variations and the key source of uncertainty for module efficiency was identified as the heat flux measurement. In the meantime, significant uncertainty was also found in maximum electrical power (P max ) measurements. As a result of the round-robin, a “standard module” with 4 × 4 legs on a 20 mm × 20 mm platform was suggested. A skutterudite module and a half-Heusler module were produced with identical geometry and 4 mm × 4 mm × 8 mm legs. All transport properties to calculate the figure-of-merit, zT, were measured from ambient temperature to 500°C. Module performance was measured by two laboratories. Two finite-element-analysis (FEA)-based models were developed independently to simulate and predict the module performance. In conclusion, the standard modules eliminated significant test uncertainties and are aimed at assisting device design and achieving more accurate performance predictions.

Round-robin↗
DOE OSTI2020

Non-destructive simulation of node defects in additively manufactured lattice structures

Additive Manufacturing (AM), commonly referred to as 3D printing, offers the ability to not only fabricate geometrically complex lattice structures but parts in which lattice topologies in-fill volumes bounded by complex surface geometries. However, current AM processes produce defects on the strut and node elements which make up the lattice structure. This creates an inherent difference between the as-designed and as-fabricated geometries, which negatively affects predictions (via numerical simulation) of the lattice’s mechanical performance. Although experimental and numerical analysis of an AM lattice’s bulk structure, unit cell and struts have been performed, there exists almost no research data on the mechanical response of the individual as-manufactured lattice node elements. Here we propose a methodology that, for the first time, allows non-destructive quantification of the mechanical response of node elements within an as-manufactured lattice structure. A custom-developed tool is used to extract and classify each individual node geometry from micro-computed tomography scans of an AM fabricated lattice. Voxel-based finite element meshes are generated for numerical simulation and the mechanical response distribution is compared to that of the idealised computer-aided design model. The method demonstrates compatibility with Uncertainty Quantification methods that provide opportunities for efficient prediction of a population of nodal responses from sampled data. Overall, the non-destructive and automated nature of the node extraction and response evaluation is promising for its application in qualification and certification of additively manufactured lattice structures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Validating automated resonance evaluation with synthetic data

The integrity and precision of nuclear data are crucial for a broad spectrum of applications, from national security and nuclear reactor design to medical diagnostics, where the associated uncertainties can significantly impact outcomes. A substantial portion of uncertainty in nuclear data originates from the subjective biases in the evaluation process, a crucial phase in the nuclear data production pipeline. Recent advancements indicate that automation of certain routines can mitigate these biases, thereby standardizing the evaluation process and enhancing reproducibility. This research aims to provide a methodology, framework, and metrics for the validation of automated nuclear data evaluation software leveraging high-quality synthetic data that closely mimic real experimental observables. An introduced error metric provides a scale and intuitive measure of the evaluation quality by quantifying the estimate’s accuracy and performance across the specified energy range. Synthetic data provides access to experimental observables and underlying resonance parameters, enabling comparison of different evaluations. The methodology is demonstrated using Ta-181 isotope data in the resolved resonance region. The Automated Resonance Identification Subroutine (ARIS), which operates without prior resonance information, was used to test and showcase the framework’s capabilities utilizing the proposed error metrics. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and framework for optimizing software parameters and testing hypotheses through “what-if” controlled experiments, such as modifying assumptions about experimental conditions or average resonance parameters.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

In-pile thermal conductivity of uranium dioxide at low burnup

In-pile thermal conductivity of uranium dioxide (UO 2 ) was investigated at low burnup levels (<0.2 kWd/kg-UO 2 ) to elucidate the concurrent effects of the fission damage and the thermal recovery. In-pile experiments were performed in the Halden reactor. The fuel centerline and the cladding temperatures were measured during the experiments, and the power level of specially designed test rodlets were also monitored. The uncertainty of the pellet-cladding gap's thermal resistivity was minimized with a liquid-metal bond, while comparable measurements were made in reference test rodlets without liquid metal bonding. The experimental data were analyzed using the inverse heat transfer approach. The heat conduction equation was solved by applying the measured temperature of the cladding as a boundary condition, and the calculated fuel centerline temperature was compared with the measured fuel centerline temperature to determine the relative matrix resistivity. Results showed that the in-pile matrix resistivity, the phonon-lattice interaction terms of the thermal conductivity, was ~1.5–2.5 times higher than its unirradiated value due to fission-induced damage. Finally, the in-pile annealing caused a significant recovery of the matrix resistivity, and the amount of recovery increased from ~20 to ~33%, while the annealing temperature increased from 700 to 1,000 °C.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

JetGP: A derivative enhanced Gaussian process library

Derivative enhanced Gaussian Processes (DEGPs) can significantly improve surrogate model accuracy over standard Gaussian Process (GP) formulations by incorporating derivative information. However, standard implementations scale poorly with dimension, limiting their use in high dimensional engineering problems. JetGP is a Python framework that unifies existing derivative enhanced GP methodologies into a single library and extends them to support arbitrary order derivative information. The library implements four complementary formulations: standard derivative enhanced Gaussian Processes (DEGP), directional DEGP (DDEGP), generalized directional DEGP (GDDEGP), and weighted DEGP (WDEGP). By unifying these approaches in a consistent interface with robust numerical implementations, JetGP enables practitioners to balance predictive accuracy and computational efficiency for high dimensional optimization, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis in engineering design.

Derivative enhanced Gaussian process↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterization of a new ultra-high pressure shock tube facility for combustion and propulsion studies

A new shock tube facility has been designed, constructed, and characterized at the University of Central Florida. This facility is capable of withstanding pressures of up to 1000 atm, allowing for combustion diagnostics of extreme conditions, such as in rocket combustion chambers or in novel power conversion cycles. For studies with toxic gas impurities, the high initial pressures required the development of a gas delivery system to ensure the longevity of the facility and the safety of the personnel. Data acquisition and experimental propagation were implemented with remote access to ensure safety, paired with a LabVIEW- and Python-based user interface. Thus far, test pressures of 270 atm, blast pressures of 730 atm, and temperatures approaching 10 000 K have been achieved. The extreme limitations of this facility allow for emission spectroscopy to be performed during the oxidation of fuel mixtures, e.g., alkanes diluted in argon and carbon dioxide. Ignition delay times were determined and compared to simulations using chemical kinetic mechanisms. The design, experimental procedures, processes of analysis, and uncertainty determination are outlined, and typical pressure profiles are compared with a new gas dynamics solver and empirical correlations developed across multiple shock tube facilities. Preliminary reactive mixture analyses are included with further investigation of the mixtures outlined.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Proof of the Asymptotic Variance of Path Length Estimators for Single-Collision Monte Carlo Source Iteration in the Thick Diffusion Limit

Here, we prove a theorem relating the variance of path length estimators for single-collision Monte Carlo source iteration to a parameter that becomes infinitesimally small in an important physical regime arising in radiative transfer. In our usage, “single-collision Monte Carlo source iteration” refers to Monte Carlo Boltzmann transport methods in which each Monte Carlo particle history includes no more than a single collision, and the physics of multiple scattering is modeled by lagging the scattering source term and iterating until this term converges. Our theorem can be used to construct variance reduction techniques which improve the order of the estimator variance. This enables calculations that would otherwise require impractically large sample sizes to achieve practical estimator uncertainties. We believe this is the first postulation of a theorem relating estimator variance to a limiting case parameter for single-collision Monte Carlo source iteration, and the first proof of such a theorem. We illustrate the theorem’s value with an example in which the authors of a transport method used the theorem to design a variance reduction technique that improved the uncertainty of their solution by a factor of about 500 for a proxy problem from radiative transfer that contains both optically-thick and optically-thin material.

Mathematics and Computing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep energy-pressure regression for a thermodynamically consistent EOS model

Abstract In this paper, we aim to explore novel machine learning (ML) techniques to facilitate and accelerate the construction of universal equation-Of-State (EOS) models with a high accuracy while ensuring important thermodynamic consistency. When applying ML to fit a universal EOS model, there are two key requirements: (1) a high prediction accuracy to ensure precise estimation of relevant physics properties and (2) physical interpretability to support important physics-related downstream applications. We first identify a set of fundamental challenges from the accuracy perspective, including an extremely wide range of input/output space and highly sparse training data. We demonstrate that while a neural network (NN) model may fit the EOS data well, the black-box nature makes it difficult to provide physically interpretable results, leading to weak accountability of prediction results outside the training range and lack of guarantee to meet important thermodynamic consistency constraints. To this end, we propose a principled deep regression model that can be trained following a meta-learning style to predict the desired quantities with a high accuracy using scarce training data. We further introduce a uniquely designed kernel-based regularizer for accurate uncertainty quantification. An ensemble technique is leveraged to battle model overfitting with improved prediction stability. Auto-differentiation is conducted to verify that necessary thermodynamic consistency conditions are maintained. Our evaluation results show an excellent fit of the EOS table and the predicted values are ready to use for important physics-related tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Goldsim Modeling of Vadose Zone Transport for E-Area Naval Reactor Component Disposal Areas: Model Description and Benchmarking

This report documents the development of a GoldSim® model of flow and radionuclide transport to the water table through the Naval Reactor Components Disposal Area (NRCDA) waste disposal sites and underlying vadose zones. The model is designed to be used for Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis in support of the E-Area Performance Assessment (PA). This report describes the model and shows results obtained from benchmarking the model to best-estimate deterministic results obtained using a PORFLOW model of NRCDA vadose zone transport. The PORFLOW model is three-dimensional while the GoldSim model is a simplified one-dimensional treatment. Nevertheless, the GoldSim model was able to accurately reproduce PORFLOW results with some adjustment to the nominal dispersion coefficient and vadose zone flow area used as “tuning” parameters. An example of the results obtained comparing GoldSim and PORFLOW calculation of releases of I-129, Tc-99, C-14 and Ni-59 from waste disposal containers at the 643-26E site is shown in Figure 1 below. For all of the test cases evaluated, GoldSim predicted peak concentrations within 6% of the PORFLOW values and peak times agreed within 8% with the majority of the results in better agreement. The close agreement between the two models provides confidence that GoldSim will give results accurately reflecting the behavior of releases from the NRCDA under off-normal operating conditions for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of Particle Size Distribution with Efficient Packing on Powder Flowability and Selective Laser Melting Process

The powder bed-based additive manufacturing (AM) process contains uncertainties in the powder spreading process and powder bed quality, leading to problems in repeatability and quality of the additively manufactured parts. This work focuses on identifying the uncertainty induced by particle size distribution (PSD) on powder flowability and the laser melting process, using Ti6Al4V as a model material. The flowability test results show that the effect of PSDs on flowability is not linear, rather the PSDs near dense packing ratios cause significant reductions in flowability (indicated by the increase in the avalanche angle and break energy of the powders measured by a revolution powder analyzer). The effects of PSDs on the selective laser melting (SLM) process are identified by using in-situ high-speed X-ray imaging to observe the melt pool dynamics during the melting process. The results show that the powder beds made of powders with dense packing ratios exhibit larger build height during laser melting. The effects of PSD with efficient packing on powder flowability and selective laser melting process revealed in this work are important for understanding process uncertainties induced by feedstock powders and for designing mitigation approaches.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Extreme metrics from large ensembles: investigating the effects of ensemble size on their estimates

Abstract. We consider the problem of estimating the ensemble sizes required to characterize the forced component and the internal variability of a number of extreme metrics. While we exploit existing large ensembles, our perspective is that of a modeling center wanting to estimate a priori such sizes on the basis of an existing small ensemble (we assume the availability of only five members here). We therefore ask if such a small-size ensemble is sufficient to estimate accurately the population variance (i.e., the ensemble internal variability) and then apply a well-established formula that quantifies the expected error in the estimation of the population mean (i.e., the forced component) as a function of the sample size n, here taken to mean the ensemble size. We find that indeed we can anticipate errors in the estimation of the forced component for temperature and precipitation extremes as a function of n by plugging into the formula an estimate of the population variance derived on the basis of five members. For a range of spatial and temporal scales, forcing levels (we use simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) and two models considered here as our proof of concept, it appears that an ensemble size of 20 or 25 members can provide estimates of the forced component for the extreme metrics considered that remain within small absolute and percentage errors. Additional members beyond 20 or 25 add only marginal precision to the estimate, and this remains true when statistical inference through extreme value analysis is used. We then ask about the ensemble size required to estimate the ensemble variance (a measure of internal variability) along the length of the simulation and – importantly – about the ensemble size required to detect significant changes in such variance along the simulation with increased external forcings. Using the F test, we find that estimates on the basis of only 5 or 10 ensemble members accurately represent the full ensemble variance even when the analysis is conducted at the grid-point scale. The detection of changes in the variance when comparing different times along the simulation, especially for the precipitation-based metrics, requires larger sizes but not larger than 15 or 20 members. While we recognize that there will always exist applications and metric definitions requiring larger statistical power and therefore ensemble sizes, our results suggest that for a wide range of analysis targets and scales an effective estimate of both forced component and internal variability can be achieved with sizes below 30 members. This invites consideration of the possibility of exploring additional sources of uncertainty, such as physics parameter settings, when designing ensemble simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗