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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Effect of Nucleation Heterogeneity on Mineral Precipitation in Confined Environments

Abstract The formation of new mineral phases in confined environments, especially in porous media, is crucial for various geological processes like mineralization and diagenesis. The nucleation and precipitation of minerals are initiated at the microscale through fluid‐rock interaction, where dissolution of primary phases leads to supersaturated conditions and nucleation and growth of secondary ones. Previous research has focused primarily on either precipitation or nucleation, without fully exploring their combined impact. Our study introduces a computational framework that integrates classical nucleation theory with the micro‐continuum method. We validated our model by comparing with experiments, and discovered that different surface nucleation rate changes the mode of precipitation from a preferential to uniform precipitate textures. Furthermore, our study uncovered that the conventional deterministic precipitation method tends to underestimate the permeability of the porous matrix. In contrast, the new framework significantly improves model accuracy by incorporating preferential precipitation and heterogeneous nucleation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Comparison of Different Control Schemes for Strategic Departure Metering

Airports and their terminal airspaces are key choke points in the air transportation system causing major delays and adding to pollution. A solution aimed at mitigating these chokepoints integrates the scheduling of runway operations, flight release from the gates and ramp into the airport movement area, and merging with other traffic competing for downstream airspace points. Within this integrated concept, we present a simulation-based analysis of the departure metering process, which delays the release of flights into the airport movement area while balancing two competing objectives: (1) maintaining large enough queues at the airport resources to maximize throughput and (2) absorbing excess delays at the gates or in ramp areas to save on fuel consumption, emissions, noise, and passenger discomfort. Three metering strategies are compared which respectively attempt to control the number of flights that (1) left the gate but did not take off, (2) left the ramp but did not take off, and (3) spent their unimpeded transit time to the runway but did not take off. It was observed that under deterministic and demand uncertainty conditions, the first strategy performed better than the other two strategies in terms of maintaining the runway throughput while transferring a significant average delay of two minutes to the gate. On the other hand, under uncertainties of flight transit time and runway service rate, all the strategies struggled to delay flights at the gate without a significant impact on the runway throughput.

air traffic management↗
DOE OSTI2026

Non-classical ion-indiffusion processes in quasi-one-dimensional ionic conductor KTiOPO4

Developments in coercive field engineering and waveguide writing via ion-exchange in the ferroelectric ionic-conductor KTiOPO4 (KTP) have led to breakthroughs within the field of nonlinear optics and quantum photonics. However, the microscopic diffusion dynamics of ion-exchange in KTP are poorly understood and show signs of non-classical diffusion dynamics. The precise control of ion-exchange gradients is critical for developing KTP into a mature, integrated nonlinear optical material but requires a level of control that, in turn, demands a deeper understanding of the ion-exchange process. We employ direct ToF-SIMS mapping to untangle the complex diffusion dynamics of the commonly used ion-exchange dopant ions: Rb, Ba, and K. We map periodic diffusion gradients of two exchanges, one dominated by Rb-ions and the other by Ba-ions. For the first time, we show the interdependent nature of the Ba- and Rb ion in the ion-exchange diffusion gradient. The low incorporation of the Ba ion is mapped and quantified, and dopant–crystal interactions are identified. This work highlights the complex diffusion dynamics of dopants in the KTP structure and lays the foundation for deterministic control of diffusion gradients for the next generation of integrated nonlinear and quantum photonic devices.

Barrett, Laura [ORNL]↗
NASA NTRS2002

150 Passenger Commercial Aircraft

It has been projected that the need for a short-range mid-sized, aircraft is increasing. The future strategy to decrease long-haul flights will increase the demand for short-haul flights. Since passengers prefer to meet their destinations quickly, airlines will increase the frequency of flights, which will reduce the passenger load on the aircraft. If a point-to-point flight is not possible, passengers will prefer only a one-stop short connecting flight to their final destination. A 150-passenger aircraft is an ideal vehicle for these situations. It is mid-sized aircraft and has a range of 3000 nautical miles. This type of aircraft would market U.S. domestic flights or inter-European flight routes. The objective of the design of the 150-passenger aircraft is to minimize fuel consumption. The configuration of the aircraft must be optimized. This aircraft must meet CO2 and NOx emissions standards with minimal acquisition price and operating costs. This report contains all the work that has been performed for the completion of the design of a 150 passenger commercial aircraft. The methodology used is the Technology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection (TIES) developed at Georgia Tech Aerospace Systems Design laboratory (ASDL). This is an eight-step conceptual design process to evaluate the probability of meeting the design constraints. This methodology also allows for the evaluation of new technologies to be implemented into the design. The TIES process begins with defining the problem with a need established and a market targeted. With the customer requirements set and the target values established, a baseline concept is created. Next, the design space is explored to determine the feasibility and viability of the baseline aircraft configuration. If the design is neither feasible nor viable, new technologies can be implemented to open up the feasible design space and allow for a plausible solution. After the new technologies are identified, they must be evaluated to determine the physical compatibility of integrating multiple technologies and then the impact on the design, both improvements and degradations, must be determined. These technologies are assessed deterministically. Again, Response Surface Equations (RSEs) are developed to allow for a full factorial evaluation of the combinations of the technologies. The best combination of technologies is selected and then the design space is again reevaluated for feasibility and viability.

Bucovsky, Adrian↗
NASA NTRS1990

Structural risk assessment and aircraft fleet maintenance

In the present analysis, deterministic flaw growth analysis is used to project the failure distributions from inspection data. Inspection data is reported for each critical point in the aircraft. The data will indicate either a crack of a specific size or no crack. The crack length may be either less than, equal to, or greater than critical size for that location. Non-critical length cracks are projected to failure using the crack growth characteristics for that location to find the life when it will be at critical length. Greater-than-critical length cracks are projected back to determine the life at failure, that is, when it was at critical length. The same process is used as in the case of a non-critical crack except that the projection goes the other direction. These points, along with the critical length cracks are used to determine the failure distribution. To be able to use data from different aircraft to build a common failure distribution, a consistent life variable must be used. Aircraft life varies with the severity of the usage; therefore the number of flight hours for a particular aircraft must be modified by its usage factor to obtain a normalized life which can be compared with that from other aircraft.

Smith, Herb, Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Generic Kalman Filter Software

The Generic Kalman Filter (GKF) software provides a standard basis for the development of application-specific Kalman-filter programs. Historically, Kalman filters have been implemented by customized programs that must be written, coded, and debugged anew for each unique application, then tested and tuned with simulated or actual measurement data. Total development times for typical Kalman-filter application programs have ranged from months to weeks. The GKF software can simplify the development process and reduce the development time by eliminating the need to re-create the fundamental implementation of the Kalman filter for each new application. The GKF software is written in the ANSI C programming language. It contains a generic Kalman-filter-development directory that, in turn, contains a code for a generic Kalman filter function; more specifically, it contains a generically designed and generically coded implementation of linear, linearized, and extended Kalman filtering algorithms, including algorithms for state- and covariance-update and -propagation functions. The mathematical theory that underlies the algorithms is well known and has been reported extensively in the open technical literature. Also contained in the directory are a header file that defines generic Kalman-filter data structures and prototype functions and template versions of application-specific subfunction and calling navigation/estimation routine code and headers. Once the user has provided a calling routine and the required application-specific subfunctions, the application-specific Kalman-filter software can be compiled and executed immediately. During execution, the generic Kalman-filter function is called from a higher-level navigation or estimation routine that preprocesses measurement data and post-processes output data. The generic Kalman-filter function uses the aforementioned data structures and five implementation- specific subfunctions, which have been developed by the user on the basis of the aforementioned templates. The GKF software can be used to develop many different types of unfactorized Kalman filters. A developer can choose to implement either a linearized or an extended Kalman filter algorithm, without having to modify the GKF software. Control dynamics can be taken into account or neglected in the filter-dynamics model. Filter programs developed by use of the GKF software can be made to propagate equations of motion for linear or nonlinear dynamical systems that are deterministic or stochastic. In addition, filter programs can be made to operate in user-selectable "covariance analysis" and "propagation-only" modes that are useful in design and development stages.

Lisano, Michael E., II↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Role of Margin in Link Design and Optimization

Link analysis is a system engineering process in the design, development, and operation of communication systems and networks. Link models that are mathematical abstractions representing the useful signal power and the undesirable noise and attenuation effects (including weather effects if the signal path transverses through the atmosphere) that are integrated into the link budget calculation that provides the estimates of signal power and noise power at the receiver. Then the link margin is applied which attempts to counteract the fluctuations of the signal and noise power to ensure reliable data delivery from transmitter to receiver. (Link margin is dictated by the link margin policy or requirements.) A simple link budgeting approach assumes link parameters to be deterministic values typically adopted a rule-of-thumb policy of 3 dB link margin. This policy works for most S- and X-band links due to their insensitivity to weather effects. But for higher frequency links like Ka-band, Ku-band, and optical communication links, it is unclear if a 3 dB link margin would guarantee link closure. Statistical link analysis that adopted the 2-sigma or 3-sigma link margin incorporates link uncertainties in the sigma calculation. (The Deep Space Network (DSN) link margin policies are 2-sigma for downlink and 3-sigma for uplink.) The link reliability can therefore be quantified statistically even for higher frequency links. However in the current statistical link analysis approach, link reliability is only expressed as the likelihood of exceeding the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) threshold that corresponds to a given bit-error-rate (BER) or frame-error-rate (FER) requirement. The method does not provide the true BER or FER estimate of the link with margin, or the required signalto-noise ratio (SNR) that would meet the BER or FER requirement in the statistical sense. In this paper, we perform in-depth analysis on the relationship between BER/FER requirement, operating SNR, and coding performance curve, in the case when the channel coherence time of link fluctuation is comparable or larger than the time duration of a codeword. We compute the "true" SNR design point that would meet the BER/FER requirement by taking into account the fluctuation of signal power and noise power at the receiver, and the shape of the coding performance curve. This analysis yields a number of valuable insights on the design choices of coding scheme and link margin for the reliable data delivery of a communication system - space and ground. We illustrate the aforementioned analysis using a number of standard NASA error-correcting codes.

Cheung, K.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic flux limiters

The stable numerical integration of shocks in compressible flow simulations relies on the reduction or elimination of Gibbs phenomena (unstable, spurious oscillations). A popular method to virtually eliminate Gibbs oscillations caused by numerical discretization in under-resolved simulations is to use a flux limiter. A wide range of flux limiters have been studied in the literature, with recent interest in their optimization via machine learning methods trained on high-resolution datasets. The common use of flux limiters in numerical codes as plug-and-play blackbox components makes them key targets for design improvement. Even for deterministic dynamical models, numerical uncertainty is introduced via coarse-graining required by insufficient computational power to solve all scales of motion. Conventional flux limiters are deterministic and lack the capacity to address uncertainties, both aleatoric (inherent randomness) and epistemic (modeling uncertainty due to limited knowledge), which arise in coarse-grained numerical simulations. Here, we introduce a conceptually distinct type of flux limiter that is designed to handle the effects of randomness in the model and uncertainty in model parameters. Unlike traditional single-function flux limiters, these new probabilistic flux limiters incorporate multiple flux limiting functions, each applied with a learned probability drawn from high-resolution data to mitigate the effects of uncertainty in numerical simulations. This approach departs from traditional single-function limiters by explicitly modeling and incorporating uncertainty into the shock capturing process. Using the example of Burgers' equation as a testbed, we show that a machine learned, probabilistic flux limiter may be used in a shock capturing code to more accurately capture shock profiles. In particular, we show that our probabilistic flux limiter outperforms standard limiters and can be successively improved upon (up to a point) by expanding the set of probabilistically chosen flux limiting functions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1988

More on exact state reconstruction in deterministic digital control systems

Presented is a special form of the Ideal State Reconstructor for deterministic digital control systems which is simpler to implement than the most general form. The Ideal State Reconstructor is so named because, if the plant parameters are known exactly, its output will exactly equal, not just approximate, the true state of the plant and accomplish this without any knowledge of the plant's initial state. Besides this, it adds no new states or eigenvalues to the system. Nor does it affect the plant equation for the system in any way; it affects the measurement equation only. It is characterized by the fact that discrete measurements are generated every T/N seconds and input into a multi-input/multi-output moving-average (MA) process. The output of this process is sampled every T seconds and utilized in reconstructing the state of the system.

Polites, Michael E.↗
DOE OSTI2025

LDRD Abbreviated report: High-Order General-Discrete-Ordinates Method Enabling Efficient Deterministic Transport in Hydrodynamic Simulations

Deterministic transport simulations for national-security and energy applications often operate in high-dimensional phase-space, where accuracy and cost both become major challenges. A common numerical artifact in such problems is the “ray-effect,” which appears as unphysical streaks. Beyond misinterpretation, these artifacts can contaminate tightly coupled physics, such as fluid dynamics, radiation-hydrodynamics, and laser-plasma interactions, eroding the predictive capability of entire multiphysics workflows. Our objective was to make high-dimension studies practical on modern hardware while mitigating the ray-effect without relying on prohibitively expensive sampling approaches such as Monte Carlo methods. We developed the Generic Discretization Library (GenDiL), a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU)-first framework that uses high-order Discontinuous Galerkin (DG) methods and matrix-free algorithms to reduce memory usage and improve computational efficiency, critical for phase-space simulations. GenDiL supports phase-space adaptivity in both mesh size and polynomial order (hp-adaptivity) to place resolution only where it is needed. A central capability is Local Dimensional Refinement (LDR), which couples lower-dimension continuum models to higher-dimension kinetic models through stable and conservative interfaces, so that high-fidelity physics is applied only in regions where it is essential. Building on the GenDiL framework, we developed the General SN (GSN) family of algorithms as a true generalization of the polar SN approach (discrete ordinates, often denoted SN). Rather than tying discrete ordinates to a specific polar change of coordinates, GSN formulates transport on an arbitrary change of coordinates chosen to reduce ray-effect. We studied two complementary variants: an analytic variant, where the coordinate map is prescribed in advance by a closed-form function; and a data-driven variant, where a quantity of interest, such as the net flux, guides the coordinate system. GenDiL provides the library infrastructure for efficient GPU execution, but the GSN concept is algorithmic and independent of any one library. Across representative high-dimension tests, including non-symmetric solutions, both variants delivered strong ray-effect mitigation at practical cost, moving four- to six-dimensional analysis toward repeatable, routine studies.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2001

Free Vibration of Uncertain Unsymmetrically Laminated Beams

Monte Carlo Simulation and Stochastic FEA are used to predict randomness in the free vibration response of thin unsymmetrically laminated beams. For the present study, it is assumed that randomness in the response is only caused by uncertainties in the ply orientations. The ply orientations may become random or uncertain during the manufacturing process. A new 16-dof beam element, based on the first-order shear deformation beam theory, is used to study the stochastic nature of the natural frequencies. Using variational principles, the element stiffness matrix and mass matrix are obtained through analytical integration. Using a random sequence a large data set is generated, containing possible random ply-orientations. This data is assumed to be symmetric. The stochastic-based finite element model for free vibrations predicts the relation between the randomness in fundamental natural frequencies and the randomness in ply-orientation. The sensitivity derivatives are calculated numerically through an exact formulation. The squared fundamental natural frequencies are expressed in terms of deterministic and probabilistic quantities, allowing to determine how sensitive they are to variations in ply angles. The predicted mean-valued fundamental natural frequency squared and the variance of the present model are in good agreement with Monte Carlo Simulation. Results, also, show that variations between plus or minus 5 degrees in ply-angles can affect free vibration response of unsymmetrically and symmetrically laminated beams.

Kapania, Rakesh K.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Statistical characterization of life drivers for a probabilistic design analysis

This paper discusses the issue of statistical characterization of life drivers for a probabilistic design analysis (PDA) approach to support the conventional deterministic structural design methods that are currently used. The probabilistic approach takes into consideration the modeling inadequacies and uncertainties in many design variables such as loads, environments, and material properties. The importance of the distributional assumption is motivated by illustrating an example where the results differ substantially due to the distribution selected. Different types of distributions are discussed and techniques for estimating the parameters are given. Given this information, procedures are outlined for selecting the appropriate distribution based on the particular type of variable (i.e., dimensional, performance) as well as the information that is available (i.e., test data, engineering analysis). Finally, techniques are given for generating random numbers from these selected distributions within the PDA process.

Fox, Eric P.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Sampling Technique for Robust Odorant Detection Based on MIT RealNose Data

This technique enhances the detection capability of the autonomous Real-Nose system from MIT to detect odorants and their concentrations in noisy and transient environments. The lowcost, portable system with low power consumption will operate at high speed and is suited for unmanned and remotely operated long-life applications. A deterministic mathematical model was developed to detect odorants and calculate their concentration in noisy environments. Real data from MIT's NanoNose was examined, from which a signal conditioning technique was proposed to enable robust odorant detection for the RealNose system. Its sensitivity can reach to sub-part-per-billion (sub-ppb). A Space Invariant Independent Component Analysis (SPICA) algorithm was developed to deal with non-linear mixing that is an over-complete case, and it is used as a preprocessing step to recover the original odorant sources for detection. This approach, combined with the Cascade Error Projection (CEP) Neural Network algorithm, was used to perform odorant identification. Signal conditioning is used to identify potential processing windows to enable robust detection for autonomous systems. So far, the software has been developed and evaluated with current data sets provided by the MIT team. However, continuous data streams are made available where even the occurrence of a new odorant is unannounced and needs to be noticed by the system autonomously before its unambiguous detection. The challenge for the software is to be able to separate the potential valid signal from the odorant and from the noisy transition region when the odorant is just introduced.

Duong, Tuan A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Binary pseudo-random array standards for calibration of 3D optical surface profilers used for metrology with significantly curved x-ray optics

High-accuracy metrology is vitally important in manufacturing ultra-high-quality free-form mirrors designed to manipulate X-ray light with nanometer-scale wavelengths. The current capabilities and possibility for improvements in X-ray mirror manufacturing are limited by inherent imperfections of the integrated metrology tools. In the case of Fizeau interferometry, metrology tools are currently calibrated with super-polished flat test-standard/reference mirrors. This is acceptable for measuring slightly curved X-ray optics. However, for even moderately curved aspherical X-ray mirrors the flat-reference calibration is not sufficiently accurate and stitching Fizeau interferometer-based surface metrology is used to mitigate the problem. But still, the retrace and aberration errors, as well as the limited spatial resolution, described with the instrument transfer function (ITF), can be transferred into the optical surface topography of X-ray mirrors obtained in stitching metrology. For ITF calibration, we have developed an original technique, based on test standards structured as two-dimensional (2D) highly-randomized (HR) binary pseudo-random arrays (BPRAs). The technique employs the unique properties of the HR BPRA patterns in the spatial frequency domain., i.e. the inherent 2D power spectral density of the HR BPRA pattern has a deterministic white-noise-like character that allows direct determination of the ITF with uniform sensitivity over the entire spatial frequency range and field-of-view of an instrument. Here, we explore technological, metrological, and analytical aspects essential for calibration of the retrace and aberration errors of Fizeau interferometers using different types of tilted test samples, including a super-polished reference mirror for the re-trace calibration and the uniformly redundant array (URA) BPRA standards for the geometrical distortion (aberration) calibration. While the first method was previously demonstrated by researchers at DIAMOND Light Source, a method based on the URA BPRA is described and demonstrated here for the first time. We outline the design and fabrication process used in fabrication of URA BPRA test standards, and present the results of application of the URA BPRA standards demonstrating the high efficacy of our approach to geometrical distortion calibration of Fizeau interferometers. We also discuss the possible sources of unexpected peculiarities of the systematic errors, including an astigmatic character of the retrace error, observed with Fizeau interferometers at the Advanced Light Source X-Ray Optics Laboratory.

Munechika, Keiko↗
DOE OSTI2025

Single photon emitters in van der Waals solids for quantum photonics: materials, theory and molecular-scale characterization probes

Strong light–matter interactions in two-dimensional layered materials (2D materials) have attracted the interest of researchers from interdisciplinary fields for more than a decade now. A unique phenomenon in some 2D materials is their large exciton binding energies (BEs), increasing the likelihood of exciton survival at room temperature. It is this large BE that mediates the intense light–matter interactions of many of the 2D materials, particularly in their monolayer limit, where the interplay of excitonic phenomena poses a wealth of opportunities for high-performance optoelectronics and quantum photonics. Within quantum photonics, quantum information science (QIS) is growing rapidly, where photons are a promising platform for information processing due to their low-noise properties, excellent modal control, and long-distance propagation. A central element for QIS applications is a single photon emitter (SPE) source, where an ideal on-demand SPE emits exactly one photon at a time into a given spatiotemporal mode. Recently, 2D materials have shown practical appeal for QIS which is directly driven from their unique layered crystalline structure. This structural attribute of 2D materials facilitates their integration with optical elements more easily than the SPEs in conventional three-dimensional solid state materials, such as diamond and SiC. In this review article, we will discuss recent advances made with 2D materials towards their use as quantum emitters, where the SPE emission properties maybe modulated deterministically. Here, the use of unique scanning tunneling microscopy tools for the in-situ generation and characterization of defects is presented, along with theoretical first-principles frameworks and machine learning approaches to model the structure-property relationship of exciton–defect interactions within the lattice towards SPEs. Given the rapid progress made in this area, the SPEs in 2D materials are emerging as promising sources of nonclassical light emitters, well-poised to advance quantum photonics in the future.

2D layered materials↗
DOE OSTI2025

Chemical classification program synthesis using generative artificial intelligence

Accurately classifying chemical structures is essential for cheminformatics and bioinformatics, including tasks such as identifying bioactive compounds of interest, screening molecules for toxicity to humans, finding non-organic compounds with desirable material properties, or organizing large chemical libraries for drug discovery or environmental monitoring. However, manual classification is labor-intensive and difficult to scale to large chemical databases. Existing automated approaches either rely on manually constructed classification rules, or are deep learning methods that lack explainability. This work presents an approach that uses generative artificial intelligence to automatically write chemical classifier programs for classes in the Chemical Entities of Biological Interest (ChEBI) database. These programs can be used for efficient deterministic run-time classification of SMILES structures, with natural language explanations. The programs themselves constitute an explainable computable ontological model of chemical class nomenclature, which we call the ChEBI Chemical Class Program Ontology (C3PO). We validated our approach against the ChEBI database, and compared our results against deep learning models and a naive SMARTS pattern based classifier. C3PO outperforms the naive classifier, but does not reach the performance of state of the art deep learning methods. However, C3PO has a number of strengths that complement deep learning methods, including explainability and reduced data dependence. C3PO can be used alongside deep learning classifiers to provide an explanation of the classification, where both methods agree. The programs can be used as part of the ontology development process, and iteratively refined by expert human curators.

Artificial Intelligence↗
NASA NTRS2011

Quantum-Classical Hybrid for Information Processing

Based upon quantum-inspired entanglement in quantum-classical hybrids, a simple algorithm for instantaneous transmissions of non-intentional messages (chosen at random) to remote distances is proposed. The idea is to implement instantaneous transmission of conditional information on remote distances via a quantum-classical hybrid that preserves superposition of random solutions, while allowing one to measure its state variables using classical methods. Such a hybrid system reinforces the advantages, and minimizes the limitations, of both quantum and classical characteristics. Consider n observers, and assume that each of them gets a copy of the system and runs it separately. Although they run identical systems, the outcomes of even synchronized runs may be different because the solutions of these systems are random. However, the global constrain must be satisfied. Therefore, if the observer #1 (the sender) made a measurement of the acceleration v(sub 1) at t =T, then the receiver, by measuring the corresponding acceleration v(sub 1) at t =T, may get a wrong value because the accelerations are random, and only their ratios are deterministic. Obviously, the transmission of this knowledge is instantaneous as soon as the measurements have been performed. In addition to that, the distance between the observers is irrelevant because the x-coordinate does not enter the governing equations. However, the Shannon information transmitted is zero. None of the senders can control the outcomes of their measurements because they are random. The senders cannot transmit intentional messages. Nevertheless, based on the transmitted knowledge, they can coordinate their actions based on conditional information. If the observer #1 knows his own measurements, the measurements of the others can be fully determined. It is important to emphasize that the origin of entanglement of all the observers is the joint probability density that couples their actions. There is no centralized source, or a sender of the signal, because each receiver can become a sender as well. An observer receives a signal by performing certain measurements synchronized with the measurements of the others. This means that the signal is uniformly and simultaneously distributed over the observers in a decentralized way. The signals transmit no intentional information that would favor one agent over another. All the sequence of signals received by different observers are not only statistically equivalent, but are also point-by-point identical. It is important to assume that each agent knows that the other agent simultaneously receives the identical signals. The sequences of the signals are true random, so that no agent could predict the next step with the probability different from those described by the density. Under these quite general assumptions, the entangled observers-agents can perform non-trivial tasks that include transmission of conditional information from one agent to another, simple paradigm of cooperation, etc. The problem of behavior of intelligent agents correlated by identical random messages in a decentralized way has its own significance: it simulates evolutionary behavior of biological and social systems correlated only via simultaneous sensoring sequences of unexpected events.

Zak, Michail↗
NASA NTRS2015

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project Verification, Validation, and Credibility (VVandC)

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project supports end user requests by employing the Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) and IMM tools as well as subject matter expertise within the Project. The iMED houses data used by the IMM. The IMM is designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A stochastic approach is taken because deterministic results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation, as well as lay the foundation for external review and application. METHODS: In 2008, the Project team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) [1] was published, the Project team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. Construction of these tools included meeting documentation and evidence requirements sufficient to meet external review success criteria. RESULTS: IMM Project VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include updates to the 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM Project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the HRP NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document working group and the NASA-HDBK-7009 [2]. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including operations, science and technology planning, and exploration planning. IMM v4.0 is slated for operational release in the FY015 and current VVC assessments illustrate the expected VVC status prior to the completion of customer lead external review efforts. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM Project of incorporating Project-specific recommended practices and guidelines for implementing the 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM Project represented a critical communication tool in providing clear and concise suitability assessments to IMM customers. These processes have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Walton, M.↗