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DOE OSTI2026

Probability of Hydrogen Ignition: A Landscape Review and Gaps Assessment

The primary hazard of a leak from a hydrogen system is due to the immediate or delayed ignition of the fuel leading to a jet flame or explosion. Therefore, understanding the hydrogen ignition probability is critical for analyzing the risk of hydrogen systems. This report reviews the current understanding of hydrogen ignition mechanisms and methods for modeling their probability. The stoichiometry, ignition strength, and ignition source temperature are all important characteristics that can affect both the probability of ignition and the outcome of the subsequent combustion event. A brief review of diffusion ignition demonstrates that ignition probability models must account for seemingly spontaneous ignition of hydrogen in addition to scenarios where the ignition source is readily identified. State-of-the art models for both immediate and delayed ignition probabilities are presented, including different physical aspects of the scenarios (e.g., flow rate, ignition source characteristics) that are considered in the different modeling approaches. Current models often fail to account for the unique properties of hydrogen compared to other fuels, and most lack rigorous validation with hydrogen as a fuel. A fault tree framework is proposed to systematically evaluate the probability of ignition by integrating various ignition mechanisms and their uncertainties. Furthermore, this type of framework could enable additional insights into the most important mechanisms and would enable uncertainty quantification in risk assessment modeling. Recommendations for future research include the need for experimental validation of ignition models and the development of comprehensive methodologies that incorporate the specifics of hydrogen behavior in real-world scenarios.

hydrogen↗

DOE OSTI2025

Polyethylene Upcycling to Diacids Using Acid-Only Activation

There is a pressing need to develop plastic recycling technologies. Chemical upcycling converts low-value waste plastics into higher-value products. Here, polyethylene (PE) upcycling is accomplished by using acid-only activation of PE (PEAA), thus eliminating costly and toxic organic solvents. Acid mixtures of chlorosulfuric acid (CSA) and sulfuric acid (SA) were used to effectively sulfonate PE, allowing for subsequent facile depolymerization. Molecular deconstruction of sulfonated PE using H 2 O 2 in the presence of an Fe(III) catalyst achieved molar yields of C 2 –C 4 diacids exceeding 40% (based on estimates of acids generated from sulfonates). The sulfonation step using PEAA is hypothesized to follow a shrinking core mechanism (SCM), in which PE particles quickly reach a saturated state in the outer sulfonated layer as CSA diffuses radially inward. This proposed mechanism is supported by the fact that, regardless of the extent of sulfonation, similar molar yields of products and ratios of liberated carbon to sulfur are observed. Modeling and experimentation show that deviations from the SCM occur by lowering the Damköhler number (Da) or increasing CSA solubility in PE. In both cases, CSA diffusion is enhanced, which favors kinetically limited sulfonation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the Enceladus dust plume based on in situ measurements performed with the Cassini Cosmic Dust Analyzer

We analyzed data recorded by the Cosmic Dust Analyzer on board the Cassini spacecraft during Enceladus dust plume traversals. Our focus was on profiles of relative abundances of grains of different compositional types derived from mass spectra recorded with the Dust Analyzer subsystem during the Cassini flybys E5 and E17. The E5 profile, corresponding to a steep and fast traversal of the plume, has already been analyzed. In this paper, we included a second profile from the E17 flyby involving a nearly horizontal traversal of the south polar terrain at a significantly lower velocity. Additionally, we incorporated dust detection rates from the High Rate Detector subsystem during flybys E7 and E21. We derived grain size ranges in the different observational data sets and used these data to constrain parameters for a new dust plume model. This model was constructed using a mathematical description of dust ejection implemented in the software package DUDI. Further constraints included published velocities of gas ejection, positions of gas and dust jets, and the mass production rate of the plume. Our model employs two different types of sources: diffuse sources of dust ejected with a lower velocity and jets with a faster and more colimated emission. From our model, we derived dust mass production rates for different compositional grain types, amounting to at least 28 kg s –1 . Previously, salt-rich dust was believed to dominate the plume mass based on E5 data alone. The E17 profile shows a dominance of organic-enriched grains over the south polar terrain, a region not well constrained by E5 data. By including both E5 and E17 profiles, we find the salt-rich dust contribution to be at most 1% by mass. This revision also results from an improved understanding of grain masses of various compositional types that implies smaller sizes for salt-rich grains. Our new model can predict grain numbers and masses for future mission detectors during plume traversals.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advancing simulations of coupled electron and phonon nonequilibrium dynamics using adaptive and multirate time integration

Electronic structure calculations in the time domain provide a deeper understanding of nonequilibrium dynamics in materials. The real-time Boltzmann equation (rt-BTE), used in conjunction with accurate interactions computed from first principles, has enabled reliable predictions of coupled electron and lattice dynamics. However, the timescales and system sizes accessible with this approach are still limited, with two main challenges being the different timescales of electron and phonon interactions and the cost of computing collision integrals. As a result, only a few examples of these calculations exist, mainly for two-dimensional (2D) materials. Here we leverage adaptive and multirate time integration methods to achieve a major step forward in solving the coupled rt-BTEs for electrons and phonons. Relative to conventional (non-adaptive) time-stepping, our approach achieves a 10x speedup for a target accuracy, or greater accuracy by 3–6 orders of magnitude for the same computational cost, enabling efficient calculations in both 2D and bulk materials. This efficiency is showcased by computing the coupled electron and lattice dynamics in graphene up to ~100 ps, as well as modeling ultrafast lattice dynamics and thermal diffuse scattering maps in bulk materials (silicon and gallium arsenide). In addition to improved efficiency, our adaptive method can resolve the characteristic rates of different physical processes, thus naturally bridging different timescales. This enables simulations of longer timescales and provides a framework for modeling multiscale dynamics of coupled degrees of freedom in matter. Our work opens new opportunities for quantitative studies of nonequilibrium physics in materials, including driven lattice dynamics with phonons coupled to electrons, spin, and other degrees of freedom.

Yao, Jia [California Institute of Technology (CalT↗

DOE OSTI2025

Generative unfolding with distribution mapping

Machine learning enables unbinned, highly-differential cross section measurements. A recent idea uses generative models to morph a starting simulation into the unfolded data. We show how to extend two morphing techniques, Schrödinger Bridges and Direct Diffusion, in order to ensure that the models learn the correct conditional probabilities. This brings distribution mapping (DM) to a similar level of accuracy as the state-of-the-art conditional generative unfolding methods. Numerical results are presented with a standard benchmark dataset of single jet substructure as well as for a new dataset describing a 22-dimensional phase space of Z+2 -jets.

Butter, Anja↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mechanistic nuclear fuel performance modeling of uranium nitride

Uranium mononitride (UN) is a nuclear fuel candidate for advanced reactor designs and an alternative being considered for light water reactors due to its higher thermal conductivity and uranium density than UO 2 . As with any nuclear fuel, swelling and fission gas release are important factors for safety, while also being some of the hardest phenomena to predict with a high degree of confidence. Getting a grasp on the gas swelling behavior and release is crucial to lower the barrier for UN utilization. An accelerated swelling rate at high temperatures observed experimentally, sometimes referred to as “breakaway swelling,” further complicates the prediction of fuel performance of UN. A mechanistic model has been developed using a multiscale approach to describe the intragranular and intergranular fission gas behavior. Lower-length-scale calculations have been employed to inform models of the gas and self-diffusion behavior, resolution rate, and bubble shape. Leveraging previous work on high burnup UO 2 , two populations of intragranular bubbles are considered; small bulk bubbles and larger bubbles located along dislocations. The dislocation bubbles were found to be crucial to the overall swelling behavior, and the breakaway swelling transition was associated with the transition in the gas atom diffusion mechanism from an irradiation-induced athermal diffusion regime at lower temperatures to an intrinsic thermal equilibrium regime at higher temperatures, accelerating the growth of the dislocation bubbles. Similarly, the threshold for fission gas release was associated with the grain boundary vacancy diffusivity surpassing the gas atom diffusivity at sufficiently high temperatures, allowing the over-pressurized grain boundary bubble to grow in size and interconnect. Using thermo-mechanical models with the fission gas model, two integral fuel pin assessment cases were simulated. Finally, this work demonstrates the ability of a multiscale approach to accelerate the understanding of advanced fuel forms when experimental data is limited.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Forecasting fluid-injection induced seismicity to choose the best injection strategy for safety and efficiency

Induced seismicity poses a challenge to the development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS). Improving monitoring and forecasting techniques is essential to mitigate induced seismicity and thereby fostering a positive perception of EGS projects among local authorities and population. Induced seismicity is the result of complex and coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical mechanisms. Injection flux and pressure are crucial controlling parameters for both hydraulic stimulation and circulation protocols. We develop a methodology combining a hydro-mechanical model with a seismicity rate model to estimate the magnitude and frequency of mainshocks and aftershocks induced by fluid injection. We apply the methodology to the case of the Basel EGS (2006, Switzerland) to compare the effects of progressive, cyclic and constant injections on the mechanical response of discrete faults. Results from the coupled hydro-mechanical models show that the pore pressure diffusion and consequent enhancement of fault permeability are limited to the vicinity of the injection well during cyclic injection. Additionally, constant injection induces seismicity from the start of the injection but enhances the permeability of most of the faults within a shorter duration, inducing less post-injection seismicity. The methodology can be adapted to any numerical model and allows new projects to be developed by anticipating the safest injection protocol. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Induced seismicity in coupled subsurface systems’.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Autocorrelation and Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analyses Reveal Superdiffusive Mass Transport in Solvent-Filled Nanoporous Media

Fluorescence fluctuation spectroscopy experiments were conducted to better understand the complex mass transport dynamics of organic molecules in liquid-filled nanoporous media. Anodic aluminum oxide (AAO) membranes incorporating 10 and 20 nm diameter cylindrical pores were employed as model materials. Nile red (NR) dye was used as a fluorescent tracer. The dye was dissolved separately in ethanol and toluene at a concentration of 20 nM and used to fill the membrane nanopores. Confocal fluorescence microscopy was employed to capture photon intensity time series data reflecting apparent diffusion of the dye within the pores. Autocorrelation of these data revealed that NR diffusion within the membranes occurred over a broad range of time scales. The autocorrelation decays were fit to a model for one-dimensional diffusion incorporating both fast and slow components having apparent diffusion coefficients, D f and D s , differing by a factor of ∼100. The fast mechanism was attributed to hindered bulk-like diffusion in the central pore cavity, while slow diffusion likely involved absorption of the dye to the pore surfaces. Unfortunately, important evidence of diffusion anomalies is lost in the broad autocorrelation decays obtained. The method of multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) was applied to the same data as a means to overcome this limitation. MF-DFA revealed that time series acquired from within the nanopores were multifractal and exhibited evidence of anomalous superdiffusion, likely resulting from the participation of a desorption-mediated diffusion mechanism. Monte Carlo simulations of time series modeling desorption-mediated diffusion in cylindrical nanopores provided support for this assignment. Here, the new knowledge gained affords an improved understanding of hydrocarbon dynamics within nanoporous oil and gas shales.

Diffusion↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling of convective cells, turbulence, and transport induced by a radio-frequency antenna in the tokamak boundary plasma

The edge turbulence model Hermes (Dudson et al 2017 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 59 05401) is set up for plasma boundary simulations with an radiofrequency (RF) antenna, using parameters characteristic of a tokamak edge. Cartesian slab geometry is used with thin plate limiters representing the ion cyclotron range of frequency (ICRF) antenna side-wall limiters. Ad-hoc DC electric biasing of the limiters, motivated by calculations with VSim (Nieter et al 2004 J. Comput. Phys. 196 448), represents an induced RF sheath rectified potential in the plasma turbulence model. Flux-driven turbulence simulations demonstrate a realistic distribution of plasma profiles and fluctuations. There is a clear effect of the antenna sheath voltage leading to formation of convective cells; bias-induced convective transport flattens the scrape-off layer density profile and fluctuations penetrate into the shadow region of the limiters as the bias voltage increases. Turbulent transport for impurity ions is inferred by following ion trajectories in the simulated plasma turbulence fields, showing Bohm-like effective diffusion rates. All in all, the model elucidates the key physical phenomena governing the effects of ICRF-induced antenna biasing on the tokamak boundary plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Prediction of L⁢i 3 ⁢F⁡e 8 ⁢B 8 compound with rapid one-dimensional ion diffusion channels

Using a computational crystal structure search in the Li-Fe-B ternary system, we predict a stable phase of L⁢i 3 ⁢F⁡e 8 ⁢B 8 , featuring 1D channels that enable rapid Li-ion transport. Ab initio molecular dynamics simulations show that the Li-ion diffusion coefficient in L⁢i 3 ⁢F⁡e 8⁢ B 8 surpasses that of common electrode and conductive additive materials by several orders of magnitude. The high diffusion in L⁢i 3 ⁢F⁡e 8 ⁢B 8 can be explained by the Frenkel–Kontorova model, which describes an incommensurate state between the Li diffusion chain and the periodic potential field caused by the FeB backbone structure. The favorable lithium-ion diffusivity and mechanical properties of L⁢i 3 ⁢F⁡e 8 ⁢B 8 make it a promising conductive additive for battery materials. Furthermore, an external magnetic field can further manipulate the properties of this material due to its predicted itinerant ferromagnetism, which also offers a platform for exploring spin-dependent phenomena.

1-dimensional systems↗

DOE OSTI2025

Phase Field Modeling of Chemical Reaction Related Damage Evolution in Environmental Barrier Coatings

The advent of next-generation engines necessitates materials capable of withstanding temperatures beyond the reach of current superalloys. SiC-based ceramic matrix composites, augmented with environmental barrier coatings (EBCs), present a promising materials solution. Given the active search for effective and durable EBCs, there is a pressing need for modeling tools to understand and predict damage evolution in these materials to help accelerate their development. This study introduces a phase-field model (PFM) designed to simulate the thermally grown oxides (TGO) and phase transformation in the degradation and failure of EBCs. The model accounts for the severe volume expansion due to oxidation, alongside phase transformations and porosity evolution during thermal cycling, offering a comprehensive view of the damage processes. Simulation results are validated against experimental findings reported in the literature, establishing the model's potential as a significant tool for understanding and improving the resilience of EBCs in cyclic oxidative environments.

fast-diffusion path↗

DOE OSTI2024

Anion Selectivities in Zwitterion Grafted Nanopores: Effect of Zwitterion Architecture

The separation of ions of similar charge is a crucial challenge in many applications, from water treatment to precious metal recovery. Membranes with cross-linked zwitterionic amphiphilic copolymer (ZAC-X) selective layers, which feature self-assembled, zwitterion-lined nanodomains for permeation, offer unique permselectivity between monovalent anions (e.g. $\mathrm{Cl^-}$/$\mathrm{F^-}$). This has motivated studies on the mechanisms of transport and selectivity in this family of materials. In this study, we conducted molecular dynamics simulations of aqueous salt solutions within zwitterion-functionalized nanopores to elucidate the influence of dipole orientation of the ZI ligands on anion diffusivities, partitioning, and permeabilities. Here, our model compares systems with contrasting ZI organization: surface-cation-anion ($\mathrm{S\text{-}ZI^{+}\text{-}ZI^{-}}$, Motif A) and surface-anion-cation ($\mathrm{S\text{-}ZI^{-}\text{-}ZI^{+}}$, Motif B). Our results reveal that Motif A exhibits less pronounced ion pairing due to a spatial separation in the radial profiles of cations and anions. Motif B demonstrates prominent ion pairing for smaller anions owing to their overlap with cation distributions. Further, our potential of mean force profiles reveal that anion partitioning increases with anion size in both ligand motifs, whereas Motif B exhibits significantly higher partitioning selectivity towards larger anions compared to Motif A. Our results for ion diffusivities show that the self-diffusivities of both anions and cations are lower for Motif B compared to Motif A. Such trends in anion partitioning and diffusivities can be explained by differences in the interactions and steric hindrance experienced by the anionic species in Motifs A and B. Finally, our results for anion permselectivity, obtained by combining partitioning and diffusivity, indicate that partitioning trends dominate over diffusivity trends. Consequently, anion permeability increases with anion size, and ligand Motif B yields much higher permselectivity towards larger anions compared to ligand Motif A.

anions↗

DOE OSTI2024

A novel conditional generative model for efficient ensemble forecasts of state variables in large-scale geological carbon storage

Integrating monitoring data to efficiently update reservoir pressure and CO 2 plume distribution forecasts presents a significant challenge in geological carbon storage (GCS) applications. Inverse modeling techniques are commonly used to fuse observational data and refine reservoir model parameters, thereby improving state variable forecasts. However, these techniques often rely on linear or Gaussian assumptions, which can limit their effectiveness in accurately predicting state variables. Moreover, simulating large-scale three-dimensional (3D) GCS problems is computationally expensive, making iterative runs in inverse problems prohibitive. To address these challenges, we propose a conditional generative model utilizing the score-based diffusion method for real-time 3D pressure and saturation field distribution predictions. Our approach involves solving the score function with a mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimator to generate labeled data. This data is subsequently employed to train a fully connected neural network, enabling it to learn the conditional sample generator within a supervised learning framework. This method enables the rapid generation of a large ensemble of predictions, facilitating comprehensive uncertainty quantification of state variables. Here we applied our method to forecast the dynamic 3D distributions of pressure and saturation fields over a 30-year injection period. The statistical assessment with low root mean square error (RMSE) values demonstrates that our method can accurately predict the spatiotemporal distributions of both pressure and saturation fields. Moreover, the developed conditional generative model shows high computational efficiency by generating 100 ensemble forecasts of 3D state variables in less than 10 min. The consistency between ensemble averages and ground truth values further illustrates the model’s capability to capture state variable dynamics during the CO 2 plume injection process. Notably, the ground truth values fall within the ensemble forecasts, indicating that our uncertainty quantification effectively captures variability and potential noise in the observations. Thus, the developed conditional generative model proves to be a more efficient, accurate, and practical tool for GCS applications, facilitating timely risk analysis and informed decision-making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Thermal and dynamic partition of dumbbell interstitials in complex concentrated alloys

Complex concentrated alloys (CCAs) are promising candidates for applications in extreme conditions, such as irradiation where interstitial mediated diffusion is important. In CCAs with N principal elements, $\frac{N(N+1)}{2}$ types of dumbbell interstitials exist. Currently, there is no way to predict the thermal partition (fractional concentration at equilibrium) and the dynamic partition (fractional time an interstitial spends during diffusion) of each type of dumbbell interstitial. To mitigate this issue, this work proposes a theoretical model for computing the equilibrium concentrations and thermal partition of dumbbell interstitials in CCAs and validates the model using grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations. Lattice kinetic Monte Carlo simulations show that the thermal partition is equivalent to the dynamic partition, and both are governed by composition and formation energies of dumbbells. As a result, the model proposed provides a foundation for understanding radiation enhanced diffusion and induced segregation in CCAs under irradiation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

A dynamic likelihood approach to filtering transport processes: advection-diffusion dynamics

A Bayesian data assimilation scheme is formulated for advection-dominated advective and diffusive evolutionary problems, based upon the Dynamic Likelihood (DLF) approach to filtering. The DLF was developed specifically for hyperbolic problems –waves–, and in this paper, it is extended via a split step formulation, to handle advection-diffusion problems. In the dynamic likelihood approach, observations and their statistics are used to propagate probabilities along characteristics, evolving the likelihood in time. The estimate posterior thus inherits phase information. For advection-diffusion the advective part of the time evolution is handled on the basis of observations alone, while the diffusive part is informed through the model as well as observations. We expect, and indeed show here, that in advection-dominated problems, the DLF approach produces better estimates than other assimilation approaches, particularly when the observations are sparse and have low uncertainty. The added computational expense of the method is cubic in the total number of observations over time, which is on the same order of magnitude as a standard Kalman filter and can be mitigated by bounding the number of forward propagated observations, discarding the least informative data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

From clutter to clarity: Emergent neural operators via questionnaire metrics

Real-world datasets in chemical engineering and bioengineering processes—such as those from catalytic reactors, multiphase flows, polymerization reactors, bioreactors, and clinical trials—can often be unlabeled or disorganized, rendering the training of existing supervised learning models ineffective at learning the underlying dynamics. To salvage these datasets for decision-making, we first seek to obtain clarity from the cluttered data. Here, we present a framework for developing “structural” generative models, discovering emergent equations, and constructing efficient emulators from scrambled datasets by integrating unsupervised organizational learning techniques (Questionnaires) with advanced deep learning architectures (Deep Hidden Physics Models and Deep Operator Networks). Our approach is demonstrated on two illustrative model systems: (a) a 1D advection–diffusion partial differential equation representing a winding underground pipe and (b) an ensemble of Stuart–Landau oscillators, an agent-based system of coupled ordinary differential equations. In both cases, we successfully reconstruct meaningful spatial, temporal, and parameter embeddings from scrambled data, enabling good predictions of system dynamics. As a result, we highlight the framework’s potential for broader applications, enabling data-driven system identification in fields with inherently disorganized or hidden parameter spaces.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

The effect of ion pairing on speciation and transport in ion exchange membranes at varying hydration levels: A four-state model

Understanding ion pairing in ion exchange membranes (IEMs) is essential for advancing IEM applications in energy and environmental technologies. Here, this study introduces a four-state molecular dynamics model to quantify speciation and transport within Nafion-117, specifically examining the role of ion pairing in monovalent and divalent counterions (NaCl, Na 2 SO 4 , and MgSO 4 ). By analyzing radial distribution functions (RDFs) and molecular snapshots, we distinguish ion pairing modes and classify counterions into four states: condensed counterion, condensed ion pair, free ion pair, and free counterion. A key finding is that while divalent counterions (e. g., Mg 2+ ) maintain stable speciation across hydration levels, monovalent counterions (e.g., Na + ) show notable speciation shifts with hydration. Both monovalent and divalent counterions are not diffusive when condensed onto the polymer (sorbed to membrane functional groups). In contrast, free counterions are diffusive across all hydration levels. To evaluate the overall diffusivity of counterions, four-state fractions and diffusivities are computed, each contributing to counterion transport. The condensed/free ion speciation for multivalent sulfate salts aligns with previous revisions to the Donnan-Manning framework that include ion pairing, thereby validating its relevance to established membrane theories. The four-state model's diffusivity results support several current ion exchange assumptions, including that the condensed counterions are immobile, while uncondensed counterions are mobile. The four-state model offers insights into contact ion pairing within IEMs, highlighting its potential even when undetected in aqueous solution experiments. This work advances the theoretical understanding of counterion speciation in IEMs while identifying model limitations that suggest avenues for refinement, such as distinguishing water-mediated ion pairs between fully hydrated ions.

Ion exchange membranes↗

DOE OSTI2025

Understanding Viscoelasticity of an Entangled Silicone Copolymer via Coarse-Grained Molecular Dynamics Simulations

Entangled dynamics is important for understanding rheological properties of long-chain polymers. For entangled homopolymers, the classic tube-reptation model and its refinements have been successfully applied to quantify properties like diffusion coefficient and zero-rate viscosity. However, the application of such models to copolymers has been limited despite scientific and industrial importance. Here, we study the entangled melt dynamics of poly(dimethyl-co-diphenyl)siloxane random copolymer for a range of mean-composition-ratio ϕ of the diphenyl component via long-term molecular dynamics simulation with a recently developed coarse-grained model. We found that the segmental relaxation is heterogeneous at the monomeric level because of compositional fluctuations. However, at the chain-entanglement level and higher length scales, the viscoelastic response is homogeneous with compositional dependence only through the overall diphenyl fraction ϕ. The relaxation modulus of the entangled copolymer melt conforms to the Likhtman–McLeish model, and the viscosity predicted using our current coarse-grained parameters is in good quantitative agreement with experimental data.

Copolymers↗