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At least 307 records · Page 17

Threatened salmon rely on a rare life history strategy in a warming landscape

We report that rare phenotypes and behaviours within a population are often overlooked, yet they may serve a heightened role for species imperilled by rapid warming. In threatened spring-run Chinook salmon spawning at the southern edge of the species range, we show late-migrating juveniles are critical to cohort success in years characterized by droughts and ocean heatwaves. Late migrants rely on cool river temperatures over summer, increasingly rare due to the combined effects of warming and impassable dams. Despite the dominance of late migrants, other strategies played an important role in many years. Our results suggest that further loss of phenotypic diversity will have critical impacts on population persistence in a warming climate. Predicted thermally suitable river conditions for late migrants will shrink rapidly in the future and will be largely relegated above impassable dams. Reconnecting diverse habitat mosaics to support phenotypic diversity will be integral to the long-term persistence of this species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pixel-Registered Multimodal Synchrotron XRF and FTIR Microscopies Reveal Salinity Stress Response Mechanisms in Pistachio

Background: Salinity is a major abiotic stress that negatively affects nearly all plant species at all stages of growth. Drought and poor-quality irrigation cause high soil salinity and salt accumulation via evaporation, reducing crop productivity. Despite its critical importance, the spatial localization of salt ions and associated biochemical changes within plants experiencing high salinity remains largely unknown. In this study, we developed a multimodal imaging pipeline to understand the impact of salinity on the pistachio rootstock UCB-1 (Pistacia atlantica x Pistacia integerrima). We directly link biochemical fingerprints in stem tissue architecture with salt ion localization to provide insights into the strategies pistachio uses to tolerate salinity. Results: We observed that Pistacia spp. exposed to high salt conditions accumulated Ca, Si, Cl, Al and Mg as hotspots within the pith, compared to the control (of which only Ca and Al co-locate). In contrast, there was a decrease in K between the control and salinity treatment. Hotspots of amide I and II were present in the cortex and pith of the salinity treated sample. Additionally, the salinity treatment resulted in an increased abundance of pectin and carbohydrates within the pith compared to the control, and the abundance of esters/carboxylic acid was greater in the salinity treatment. Conclusions: We determined that Cl and K, S and P, and biochemical components polysaccharide and pectin, esters and carboxylic acid, amide I and cellulose are the strongest drivers of salinity- treatment induced variability. In the cortex and phloem/xylem, a negative K-Ca correlation decreases in the salinity treatment. Several hotspots of elements and amide I (proteins) appear under salinity treatment, particularly in the cortex, suggesting an increase in the production of stress-related proteins (in response to high Cl) and/or structural proteins (i.e. Ca). Together, these results indicate that pistachio responds to salinity through ion compartmentalization coupled with a targeted biochemical adjustment, rather than a broadscale tissue-wide response. Overall, these novel, spatially resolved pixel-registered multimodal imaging data provide an enabling platform to understand the mechanisms of salinity tolerance in Pistacia spp and can be broadly applied to studying stress-related phenotype response in various plant tissues.

FTIR spectromicroscopy↗

An overview of switchgrass phenotypes variability across diverse populations and their implications for conversion to fuels

There have been substantial changes to the human lifestyle over the past two centuries, which are reflected in the amount of fuel we consume to power our day-to-day needs. The way we use these resources has indeed manifested in an overdependence on non-renewable energy sources, such as coal and petroleum, for generating electricity and powering our transportation needs. There is a pressing need to explore alternative ways of fueling our current lifestyle without impacting the environment. Biofuels have long been touted as a sustainable solution for use as drop-in fuels in aviation and maritime applications. Still, they have yet to establish themselves as a competitive commercial alternative, necessitating further research and development. Lignocellulosic biomass is an underutilized resource that is widely accessible for the commercial processing of renewable biofuels. Bioenergy crops, such as switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), which can be cultivated on marginal lands with minimal competition for agricultural land, are an ideal and promising candidate for bulk-scale biofuel synthesis. Over the past 30 years, significant progress has been made in breeding and genetically modifying these grasses to enhance their drought resilience and subsequent yields. However, discrepancies in biomass composition can lead to irregular feedstocks for downstream operations, which in turn affect overall production targets for biofuels. Here, this review examines the variability in switchgrass (P. virgatum L.) biomass phenotypes across diverse populations and plant components, and their implications for biofuel conversion. The study highlights significant variations in biomass yield, composition, and cell wall chemistry both between switchgrass genotypes and within individual cultivars. Key findings include differences in cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin content between leaves and stems, which affect biomass digestibility and ethanol yield. The review also discusses the impact of lignin chemistry, particularly the syringyl/guaicyl (S/G) ratio, on the efficiency of biomass saccharification. Furthermore, it explores how these variations respond differently to various pretreatment techniques, affecting overall biofuel production. We conclude that understanding and quantifying this variability is crucial for optimizing switchgrass as a feedstock for commercial biofuel production, thereby potentially addressing the pressing need for sustainable energy sources in sectors such as aviation.

Kousika, Rohit [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN ↗

A Twenty-Year Analysis of Winds in California for Offshore Wind Energy Production Using WRF v4.1.2

Offshore wind resource characterization in the United States relies heavily on simulated winds from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, given the lack of hub-height observations offshore. One such NWP data set used extensively by U.S. stakeholders is the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, a 7-year time-series data set produced in 2013 by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. In this study, we present an update to that data set for offshore California that leverages recent advancements in NWP modeling capabilities and extends the period of record to a full 20 years. The data set predicts a significantly larger wind resource (0.25–1.75 m s-1 stronger), including in three Call Areas that the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is considering for commercial activity. We conduct a set of yearlong simulations to study factors that contribute to this increase in the modeled wind resource. The largest impact arises from a change in the planetary boundary layer parameterization from the Yonsei University scheme to the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino scheme and their diverging wind profiles under stable stratification. Additionally, we conduct a refined wind resource assessment at the three Call Areas, characterizing distributions of wind speed, shear, veer, stability, frequency of wind droughts, and power production. We find that, depending on the attribute, the new data set can show substantial disagreement with the WIND Toolkit, thereby driving important changes in predicted power.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗

Modeling the impact of measured and projected climate and management systems on agricultural fields: Surface runoff, soil moisture, and soil erosion

Abstract As global climate change poses a challenge to crop production, it is imperative to prioritize effective adaptation of agricultural systems based on a scientific understanding of likely impacts. In this study, we applied an integrated watershed modeling framework to examine the impacts of projected climate on runoff, soil moisture, and soil erosion under different management systems in Central Oklahoma. The proposed model uses measured climate data and three downscaled ensembles from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) at the water resources and erosion watershed to understand the impact of climate change and various climate conditions under three management systems: (1) continuous winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) under conventional tillage (WW‐CT; baseline system), (2) continuous winter wheat under no‐till (WW‐NT), and (3) cool and warm season forage cover crop mixes under no‐till (CC‐NT). The study indicates that the occurrence of agricultural drought is projected to increase while erosion rates will remain unchanged under the WW‐CT. In contrast, climate simulations imposed on the WW‐NT and CC‐NT systems significantly reduce runoff and sediment while preserving soil moisture levels. Especially, implementing the CC‐NT system can bolster food security and foster sustainable farming practices in Central Oklahoma in the face of a changing climate.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Tropical root responses to global changes: A synthesis

Tropical ecosystems face escalating global change. These shifts can disrupt tropical forests' carbon (C) balance and impact root dynamics. Since roots perform essential functions such as resource acquisition and tissue protection, root responses can inform about the strategies and vulnerabilities of ecosystems facing present and future global changes. However, root trait dynamics are poorly understood, especially in tropical ecosystems. We analyzed existing research on tropical root responses to key global change drivers: warming, drought, flooding, cyclones, nitrogen (N) deposition, elevated (e) CO 2 , and fires. Based on tree species- and community-level literature, we obtained 266 root trait observations from 93 studies across 24 tropical countries. We found differences in the proportion of root responsiveness to global change among different global change drivers but not among root categories. In particular, we observed that tropical root systems responded to warming and eCO 2 by increasing root biomass in species-scale studies. Drought increased the root: shoot ratio with no change in root biomass, indicating a decline in aboveground biomass. Despite N deposition being the most studied global change driver, it had some of the most variable effects on root characteristics, with few predictable responses. Episodic disturbances such as cyclones, fires, and flooding consistently resulted in a change in root trait expressions, with cyclones and fires increasing root production, potentially due to shifts in plant community and nutrient inputs, while flooding changed plant regulatory metabolisms due to low oxygen conditions. The data available to date clearly show that tropical forest root characteristics and dynamics are responding to global change, although in ways that are not always predictable. This synthesis indicates the need for replicated studies across root characteristics at species and community scales under different global change factors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Yang_et_al_2020_Hydrology_Data

Data supporting the paper "Impact of climate change on adaptive management decisions in the face of water scarcity" in the Journal of Hydrology.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Pipe Parity Analysis of Seawater Desalination in the United States: Exploring Costs, Energy, and Reliability via Case Studies and Scenarios of Emerging Technology

As climate change-induced variables exacerbate water scarcities, the use of seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) membrane desalination technology for treating seawater could potentially provide a long-term drought-proof source of drinking water. This study carried out a technoeconomic assessment (TEA) for three SWRO desalination plants in the U.S. and one in Israel to set baselines for the cost and energy consumption for seawater desalination. In addition, a breakeven curve for implementing SWRO desalination was estimated in relation to the cost of water conservation measures to meet drought-induced reduction of the traditional water supply. The results show that the cost of SWRO water production scales with the plant capacity while energy intensity is not dramatically different across the plants. The higher cost in some U.S. plants is due to high capital investment, including land acquisition and permitting. Variations in plant capacity utilization have the greatest impact on the levelized cost of water (LCOW) over the plant service life, suggesting the importance of reducing fouling and maintenance-related downtime. Scenario analysis of fixed labor cost reduction through process automation indicates investments in automation and sensing technology could result in long-term savings. Breakeven analysis shows the decision to adopt SWRO is highly dependent on the local cost associated with water conservation to meet water supply reduction. Moreover, a small reduction in SWRO cost can influence a shift toward the adoption of SWRO over water conservation measures. Incorporation of future water demand, water conservation potential, and water stress data around the nation indicates SWRO desalination could be an important contributor to the future municipal drinking water portfolio in the U.S.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Improved Simulations of Atmospheric River Climatology and Variability in High-Resolution CESM

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) can trigger extreme rainfall and snowfall events, causing high risk of flooding. Meanwhile, they are sometimes responsible for the occurrence and break of drought events. So, it is of great importance for weather and climate forecast models to accurately represent ARs. Studies have shown that AR variability is linked to various climate modes, such as El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Pacific-North America pattern, providing the potential for predicting ARs at subseasonal-to-decadal timescales. In this study, we examine the impact of climate model resolution on AR simulations and their relationship with major climate modes by comparing a pair of high-resolution and a low-resolution (LR) Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations against the observations. The results reveal major deficiencies in LR that include underestimated climatological AR strength and associated precipitation, and inaccurate representations of ARs relationships with climate modes. Significant improvements are observed by increasing CESM horizontal resolution, suggesting a path for more accurate prediction of ARs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling the topographic influence on aboveground biomass using a coupled model of hillslope hydrology and ecosystem dynamics

Abstract. Topographic heterogeneity and lateral subsurface flow at the hillslope scale of ≤1 km may have outsized impacts on tropical forest through their impacts on water available to plants under water-stressed conditions. However, vegetation dynamics and finer-scale hydrologic processes are not concurrently represented in Earth system models. In this study, we integrate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) that includes the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), with a three-dimensional hydrology model (ParFlow) to explicitly resolve hillslope topography and subsurface flow and perform numerical experiments to understand how hillslope-scale hydrologic processes modulate vegetation along water availability gradients at Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. Our simulations show that groundwater table depth (WTD) can play a large role in governing aboveground biomass (AGB) when drought-induced tree mortality is triggered by hydraulic failure. Analyzing the simulations using random forest (RF) models, we find that the domain-wide simulated AGB and WTD can be well predicted by static topographic attributes, including surface elevation, slope, and convexity, and adding soil moisture or groundwater table depth as predictors further improves the RF models. Different model representations of mortality due to hydraulic failure can change the dominant topographic driver for the simulated AGB. Contrary to the simulations, the observed AGB in the well-drained 50 ha forest census plot within BCI cannot be well predicted by the RF models using topographic attributes and observed soil moisture as predictors, suggesting other factors such as nutrient status may have a larger influence on the observed AGB. The new coupled model may be useful for understanding the diverse impact of local heterogeneity by isolating the water availability and nutrient availability from the other external and internal factors in ecosystem modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stress Testing California's Hydroclimatic Whiplash: Potential Challenges, Trade‐Offs and Adaptations in Water Management and Hydropower Generation

Abstract Inter‐annual precipitation in California is highly variable, and future projections indicate an increase in the intensity and frequency of hydroclimatic “whiplash.” Understanding the implications of these shocks on California's water system and its degree of resiliency is critical from a planning perspective. Therefore, we quantify the resilience of reservoir services provided by water and hydropower systems in four basins in the western Sierra Nevada. Using downscaled runoff from 10 climate model outputs, we generated 200 synthetic hydrologic whiplash sequences of alternating dry and wet years to represent a wide range of extremes and transitional conditions used as inputs to a water system simulation model. Sequences were derived from upper (wet) and lower (dry) quintiles of future streamflow projections (2030–2060). Results show that carryover storage was negatively affected in all basins, particularly in those with lower storage capacity. All basins experienced negative impacts on hydropower generation, with losses ranging from 5% to nearly 90%. Reservoir sizes and inflexible operating rules are a particular challenge for flood control, as in extremely wet years spillage averaged nearly the annual basins' total discharge. The reliability of environmental flows and agricultural deliveries varied depending on the basin, intensity, and duration of whiplash sequences. Overall, wet years temporarily rebound negative drought effects, and greater storage capacity results in higher reliability and resiliency, and lesser volatility in services. We highlight potential policy changes to improve flexibility, increase resilience, and better equip managers to face challenges posed by whiplash while meeting human and environmental needs.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

A mixture of grass–legume cover crop species may ameliorate water stress in a changing climate

Climate change models predict increasing precipitation variability in the mid-latitude regions of Earth, generating a need to reduce the negative impacts of these changes on crop production. Despite considerable research on how cover crops support agriculture in a changing climate, understanding is limited of how climate change influences the growth of cover crops. We investigated the early development of two common cover crop species—crimson clover (Trifolium incarnatum) and rye (Secale cereale)—and hypothesized that growing them in the mixture would ameliorate stress from drought or waterlogging. This hypothesis was tested in a 25-day greenhouse experiment, where the two factors (species number and water stress) were fully crossed in randomized blocks, and plant responses were quantified through survival, growth rate, biomass production and root morphology. Water stress negatively influenced the early growth of these two species in contrasting ways: crimson clover was susceptible to drought while rye performed poorly under waterlogging. Per-plant biomass in rye was always greater in mixture than in monoculture, while per-plant biomass of crimson clover was greater in mixture under drought. Both species grew longer roots in mixture than in monoculture under drought, and total biomass of mixtures did not differ significantly from the more-productive monoculture (rye) in any water condition. In the face of increasingly variable precipitation, growing crimson clover and rye together has potential to ameliorate water stress, a possibility that should be further investigated in field experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improvement of Coal Power Plant Dry Cooling Technology through Application of Cold Thermal Energy Storage

The U.S. power infrastructure is currently heavily reliant on water cooling. The power plants in the U.S. account for approximately 40% of freshwater withdrawals, with 90% of it used in condenser cooling. The most used cooling technology in coal-fired power plants is a once-through condenser; however, this cooling method requires high water withdrawal rates and results in thermal pollution of the water source. Wet WCTs offer an alternative to once-through condensers due to much lower water withdrawals. However, these systems suffer from water consumption through evaporation making them undesirable options in areas subject to droughts and in arid areas. The direct dry cooled condensers (ACCs) and dry cooling towers (DCT) account for 1.8%, hybrid cooling (ACC + WCT) accounts for 0.5%, while other cooling technologies represent the rest (0.7%). The ACC/DCTs represent an attractive alternative for power plants; however, this technology has not been widely adopted in the US (less than 2% of power plants) due to its negative impact on plant performance. As a rule of thumb, dry cooling results in performance penalty equivalent to approximately 2%-point efficiency loss compared to wet cooling, although the actual magnitude varies with ambient dry bulb temperature, DBT which may vary considerably during the day. As DBT increases, the plant power output decreases, reaching a minimum at the hottest period of the day, which usually coincides with the highest electricity demand for air condition load. Therefore, performance of power plants using DCT/ACC cooling technology is the lowest during the summer mid-day when ambient temperature is the highest. For example, the decrease of the inlet air temperature to the DCT/ACC by 2 Deg C could generate up to 5% additional power at peak demand. It is, therefore, important to improve dry cooling technology to maintain the viability of coal-fired power plants in a carbon constrained future. The method for reducing the cooling air temperature and keeping it constant would mitigate this problem significantly. Objectives of this project were to develop, design, evaluate, and demonstrate a cost-effective system for improving performance of a DCT or ACC for thermal (coal-fired) power plant applications using a low-cost heat storage materials, such as pervious concrete (PC) and phase change material (PCM). Thus, the study focused on development of the system(s) that could be used to alleviate the difficulties in operating DCT/ACC during the summer months by storing cold energy during the nighttime in inexpensive materials PC and PCM and using it during the hottest period(s) of the day. Since very large quantities of cold energy need to be stored to make an impact on performance of a large power plant, it is essential that the storage materials and associated cold energy storage design(s) are inexpensive and the system is simple to build, maintain and operate. To achieve the project objectives, a comprehensive approach, including material development and characterization, component and system modeling, and laboratory- and prototype-scale experiments, was employed including modeling of the system components and of the entire system, development (engineering) of the materials for the heat storage modules of the Cold Thermal Energy Storage System (CTESS) and determination of their properties, design, manufacturing and setup of the laboratory- and prototype-scale test facility and testing, design, manufacturing and setup of the prototype-scale test facility. A modular design of CTESS was employed, where representative modules were designed as the integrated direct contact heat exchanger and thermal energy storage (TES) system. CTESS modules were manufactured and tested. Two prototype-scale designs of the CTESS modules were developed and tested. The use of CTESS increases plant generation increases since it lowers air temperature entering ACC/DCT and keeps it constant during the hottest time of the day. For a PCM-based CTESS, the ambient air temperature is lowered close to the PCM phase change temperature. The duration of the cooling effect depends on the latent heat and mass of PCM in the CTESS. For this project, commercial grade CaCl2 hexahydrate (CaCl2·6H2O or CC6) PCM with phase change temperature of 25 Deg. C was used due to its low cost. For practical reasons, the CTESS was designed to maintain the cooling effect for four hours. The low phase change temperature associated with the commercial grade PCM used in CTESS results in considerably higher improvement in net generation compared to the laboratory (pure) grade. The resistance to heat transfer results in lower net generation compared to the ideal case where resistance to heat transfer is zero. The results demonstrate that CTESS is effective in improving the performance of a dry cooling system. However, its effectiveness depends on the relationship between the ambient air conditions and PCM phase change temperature. As is the case with the heat rejection system, for the best performance, the PCM used in CTESS would need to be matched to the ambient air conditions. The results obtained in this report for selected geographical locations are valid for CC6 and demonstrate that the level of performance to be achieved by the technology will be location-dependent, as is the case with the air cooled condensers. The methodology for engineering of PC-PCM-based heat storage medium is applicable to other PCMs that may need to be used for other ambient air conditions and geographical locations.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Benefits of symbiotic ectomycorrhizal fungi to plant water relations depend on plant genotype in pinyon pine

Rhizosphere microbes, such as root-associated fungi, can improve plant access to soil resources, affecting plant health, productivity, and stress tolerance. While mycorrhizal associations are ubiquitous, plant–microbe interactions can be species specific. Here we show that the specificity of the effects of microbial symbionts on plant function can go beyond species level: colonization of roots by ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF) of the genus Geopora has opposite effects on water uptake, and stomatal control of desiccation in drought tolerant and intolerant genotypes of pinyon pine (Pinus edulis Engelm.). These results demonstrate, for the first time, that microorganisms can have significant and opposite effects on important plant functional traits like stomatal control of desiccation that are associated with differential mortality and growth in nature. They also highlight that appropriate pairing of plant genotypes and microbial associates will be important for mitigating climate change impacts on vegetation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The effects of environmental conditions on eggshell thickness of two North American secondary cavity-nesting birds

Egg hatchability in birds is a critical component of individual reproductive success and is associated with eggshell integrity. Contaminants, such as DDT, can influence eggshell thickness and are known to cause population declines. Moisture content and temperature can also impact eggshell thickness, but the influence of environmental conditions on the natural variation in eggshell thickness in wild populations is not well understood. Our goal was to investigate the relationship between environmental conditions and eggshell thickness of Western Bluebird (Sialia mexicana) and Ash-throated Flycatcher (Myiarchus cinerascens) eggs from 1997 to 2013 on the Pajarito Plateau in northern New Mexico. We tested whether nesting elevation, temperature, precipitation, and drought conditions influenced eggshell thickness in these two secondary cavity-nesting species, while also looking at eggshell thickness over time. Over the 16 years, nonviable or abandoned eggs were collected, and the analyzed dataset included 330 bluebird eggs and 113 flycatcher eggs. There was a significant increase in eggshell thickness over time for both species. Flycatcher eggshells were correlated with higher temperatures, whereas bluebird eggshells were influenced by an interaction between temperature and drought severity. In drought conditions, bluebird eggshell thickness was positively correlated with temperature, whereas in wet conditions, eggshell thickness was negatively correlated with temperature. Thicker eggshells in drought conditions may be a way of reducing water loss from eggs, which occurs faster at higher temperatures. In the southwestern United States, frequent and severe drought, higher temperatures, and decreases in precipitation are all expected to continue. In conclusion, the structure of eggs will be important to consider regarding how species may or may not adapt to novel conditions or persist in new environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Identifying precursors of daily to seasonal hydrological extremes over the USA using deep learning techniques and climate model ensembles

Focal Area(s): We focus on two areas of crosscutting interest for DOE: 1) predictability of extreme precipitation and drought in the USA and 2) the integration of climate models with new AI tools, such as convolutional neural networks (CNN) and methods to understand their output (e.g. layer-wise relevance propagation; LRP). This project fits into focus area 3 of this call for white paper using AI to gain insight from complex data, including explainable AI tools. Science Challenge: Predicting hydrological extremes is important due to their impacts on people, agriculture and infrastructure. This prediction is difficult due to the infrequent occurrence of extremes and their complexity. However, extreme events can be related to more predictable conditions in the ocean, such as El Nino, long-term soil moisture or large scale modes of climate variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate hazard indices projections based on CORDEX-CORE, CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble

The CORDEX-CORE initiative was developed with the aim of producing homogeneous regional climate model (RCM) projections over domains world wide. In its first phase, two RCMs were run at 0.22° resolution downscaling 3 global climate models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 program for 9 CORDEX domains and two climate scenarios, the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The CORDEX-CORE simulations along with the CMIP5 GCM ensemble and the most recently produced CMIP6 GCM ensemble are analyzed, with focus on several temperature, heat, wet and dry hazard indicators for present day and mid-century and far future time slices. The CORDEX-CORE ensemble shows a better performance than the driving GCMs for several hazard indices due to its higher spatial resolution. For the far future time slice the 3 ensembles project an increase in all temperature and heat indices analyzed under the RCP8.5 scenario. The largest increases are always shown by the CMIP6 ensemble, except for Tx > 35 °C, for which the CORDEX-CORE projects higher warming. Extreme wet and flood prone maxima are projected to increase by the RCM ensemble over the la Plata basin in South America, the Congo basin in Africa, east North America, north east Europe, India and Indochina, regions where a better performance is obtained, whereas the GCM ensembles show small or negligible signals. Furthermore, compound hazard hotspots based on heat, drought and wet indicators are detected in each continent worldwide in region like Central America, the Amazon, the Mediterranean, South Africa and Australia, where a linear relation is shown between the heatwave and drought change signal, and region like Arabian peninsula, the central and south east Africa region (SEAF), the north west America (NWN), south east Asia, India, China and central and northern European regions (WCE, NEU) where the same linear relation is found for extreme precipitation and HW increases. Although still limited, the CORDEX-CORE initiative was able to produce high resolution climate projections with almost global coverage and can provide an important resource for impact assessment and climate service activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change

Abstract. Disastrous bushfires during the last months of 2019 and January 2020 affected Australia, raising the question to what extent the risk of these fires was exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. To answer the question for southeastern Australia, where fires were particularly severe, affecting people and ecosystems, we use a physically based index of fire weather, the Fire Weather Index; long-term observations of heat and drought; and 11 large ensembles of state-of-the-art climate models. We find large trends in the Fire Weather Index in the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Atmospheric Reanalysis (ERA5) since 1979 and a smaller but significant increase by at least 30 % in the models. Therefore, we find that climate change has induced a higher weather-induced risk of such an extreme fire season. This trend is mainly driven by the increase of temperature extremes. In agreement with previous analyses we find that heat extremes have become more likely by at least a factor of 2 due to the long-term warming trend. However, current climate models overestimate variability and tend to underestimate the long-term trend in these extremes, so the true change in the likelihood of extreme heat could be larger, suggesting that the attribution of the increased fire weather risk is a conservative estimate. We do not find an attributable trend in either extreme annual drought or the driest month of the fire season, September–February. The observations, however, show a weak drying trend in the annual mean. For the 2019/20 season more than half of the July–December drought was driven by record excursions of the Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode, factors which are included in the analysis here. The study reveals the complexity of the 2019/20 bushfire event, with some but not all drivers showing an imprint of anthropogenic climate change. Finally, the study concludes with a qualitative review of various vulnerability and exposure factors that each play a role, along with the hazard in increasing or decreasing the overall impact of the bushfires.

van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan (ORCID:0000000268989535)↗