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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

An integrated integral projection model ( IPM 2 ) to disentangle size‐structured harvest and natural mortality

Abstract Body size is one of the most important traits governing individual‐level demographic rates and modulating population‐level processes. Multiple size‐dependent demographic rates can simultaneously change population structure, so distinguishing their individual contributions to overall population dynamics remains a challenge. Disentangling size‐dependent harvest rates from other demographic rates is critical for assessing the impact of removal on populations of invasive species. Inference about invasive populations can be difficult, however, as observations are often collected opportunistically as part of removal programs, rather than experimentally designed. Yet accurate inference is essential for understanding the feasibility of population suppression and optimising management decisions. We develop an integrated integral projection model (IPM 2 ) that leverages the strengths of the integrated population model and integral projection model to enable inference about complex, size‐structured demographic rates from imperfect observations. We apply the IPM 2 in the context of invasive European green crab ( Carcinus maenas ), a species for which individual body size strongly regulates both the observation‐generating process and latent, population dynamics. The IPM 2 facilitates the distinct estimation of green crab size‐structured harvest and natural mortality rates, parameters for which no explicit data is collected and that are unidentifiable in component datasets of the integrated population model. The model represents how the green crab population changes over time, providing the first estimates of size‐structured abundance of this high‐priority species. By forecasting the stable size distribution and equilibrium population size under varying removal efforts, we demonstrate that extremely high levels of removal effort can reduce the equilibrium green crab population size. Yet these high mortality rates also shift the stable size distribution and increase the equilibrium abundance of smaller crabs, since size‐selective removal alters intraspecific interactions. The ecological outcome of this shift in size structure will be variable, as green crab size modulates only some of its interactions with other species. These results highlight the value of the IPM 2 framework for inferring complex population dynamics with information needs that outpace information in individual observational datasets, providing a path forward for accurate assessment of conservation programs.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗
DOE OSTI2018

CD8 + lymphocyte control of SIV infection during antiretroviral therapy

CD8 + lymphocytes play an important role in suppressing in vivo viral replication in HIV infection. However, both the extent to which and the mechanisms by which CD8 + lymphocytes contribute to viral control are not completely understood. A recent experiment depleted CD8 + lymphocytes in simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV)-infected rhesus macaques (RMs) on antiretroviral treatment (ART) to study the role of CD8 + lymphocytes. CD8 + lymphocytes depletion resulted in temporary plasma viremia in all studied RMs. Viral control was restored when CD8 + lymphocytes repopulated. We developed a viral dynamic model to fit the viral load (VL) data from the CD8 depletion experiment. We explicitly modeled the dynamics of the latent reservoir and the SIV-specific effector cell population including their exhaustion and their potential cytolytic and noncytolytic functions. We found that the latent reservoir significantly contributes to the size of the peak VL after CD8 depletion, while drug efficacy plays a lesser role. Our model suggests that the overall CD8 + lymphocyte cytolytic killing rate is dynamically changing depending on the levels of antigen-induced effector cell activation and exhaustion. Based on estimated parameters, our model suggests that before ART or without ART the overall CD8 cytolytic killing rate is small due to exhaustion. However, after the start of ART, the overall CD8 cytolytic killing rate increases due to an expansion of SIV-specific CD8 effector cells. Further, we estimate that the cytolytic killing rate can be significantly larger than the cytopathic death rate in some animals during the second phase of ART-induced viral decay. Lastly, our model provides a new explanation for the puzzling findings by Klatt et al. and Wong et al. that CD8 depletion done immediately before ART has no noticeable effect on the first phase viral decay slope seen after ART initiation Overall, by incorporating effector cells and their exhaustion, our model can explain the effects of CD8 depletion on VL during ART, reveals a detailed dynamic role of CD8 + lymphocytes in controlling viral infection, and provides a unified explanation for CD8 depletion experimental data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Imaging of a fluid injection process using geophysical data — A didactic example

In many subsurface industrial applications, fluids are injected into or withdrawn from a geologic formation. It is of practical interest to quantify precisely where, when, and by how much the injected fluid alters the state of the subsurface. Routine geophysical monitoring of such processes attempts to image the way that geophysical properties, such as seismic velocities or electrical conductivity, change through time and space and to then make qualitative inferences as to where the injected fluid has migrated. The more rigorous formulation of the time-lapse geophysical inverse problem forecasts how the subsurface evolves during the course of a fluid-injection application. Using time-lapse geophysical signals as the data to be matched, the model unknowns to be estimated are the multiphysics forward-modeling parameters controlling the fluid-injection process. Properly reproducing the geophysical signature of the flow process, subsequent simulations can predict the fluid migration and alteration in the subsurface. The dynamic nature of fluid-injection processes renders imaging problems more complex than conventional geophysical imaging for static targets. This work intents to clarify the related hydrogeophysical parameter estimation concepts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1990

Distributed parameter modeling for the control of flexible spacecraft

The use of FEMs of spacecraft structural dynamics is a common practice, but it has a number of shortcomings. Distributed-parameter models offer an alternative, but present both advantages and difficulties. First, the model order does not have to be reduced prior to the inclusion of control system dynamics. This advantage eliminates the risk involved with model 'order reduction'. Second, distributed parameter models inherently involve fewer parameters, thereby enabling more accurate parameter estimation using experimental data. Third, it is possible to include the damping in the basic model, thereby increasing the accuracy of the structural damping. The difficulty in generating distributed parameter models of complex spacecraft configurations has been greatly alleviated by the use of PDEMOD, BUNVIS-RG, or DISTEL. PDEMOD is being developed for simultaneously modeling structural dynamics and control system dynamics.

Taylor, Lawrence W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Dynamic data acquisition, reduction, and analysis for the identification of high-speed compressor component post-stability characteristics

A compressor test was conducted in which transient data were obtained for the purpose of identifying the high-speed post-stability characteristics. The transient, surge-cycle nature of high-speed post-stability operation precludes the possibility of obtaining the characteristics in a steady-state manner, as is possible during low-speed poststability operation, which is characterized by quasi-steady rotating-stall behavior. Specialized compressor instrumentation was developed and was used to obtain the necessary surge-cycle performance data, which were then digitized, filtered, and analyzed. The high-speed post-stability characteristics were obtained through the use of a maximum likelihood-parameter estimation technique. The estimated characteristics were found to be insensitive to the presence of measurement noise and unmodelled system dynamics, but the compressor time-response constants, which were also estimated, were more sensitive to these same disturbances.

Dvorak, S. D.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Process Modeling and Techno-Economic Analysis of a CO 2 Capture Process Using Fixed Bed Reactors with a Microencapsulated Solvent

A detailed model of a capsule containing sodium carbonate solution is developed here to study the microencapsulated carbon capture solvents (MECS). A rigorous vapor–liquid equilibrium model is developed for the Na 2 CO 3 –CO 2 –H 2 O system, where liquid-phase nonideality is modeled by the electrolyte nonrandom two-liquid model. The data from the experiments conducted at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is used to obtain a maximum likelihood estimate of the initial solvent concentration inside the capsules and the parameters for the capsule model. A nonisothermal, dynamic model of a fixed bed contactor filled with these capsules is then developed. In addition to direct steam injection, indirect heating using an embedded heat exchanger is modeled for desorption. Finally, the model is used to simulate temperature swing absorption and desorption cycles. The results of these studies indicate that there is an optimal residence time or superficial flue gas velocity to minimize the bed volume. However, the total energy requirement for desorption monotonically decreases with increased residence time as the proportion of the sensible heat to the total regeneration heat keeps decreasing. Furthermore, heat recovery from the bed is crucial to keep energy penalty for regeneration low. A techno-economic analysis is conducted, and the equivalent annual operating cost (EAOC) is analyzed for two different reactor materials (concrete and carbon-steel) and compared with a system using a conventional monoethanolamine (MEA) solvent. In this work, the minimum EAOC for the MECS fixed bed configuration is approximately 1.8–2.7 times higher than the EAOC for an MEA system with a similar amount of heat recovery (85%). The impact of ±50% uncertainty in the capital cost estimate is also evaluated, and the minimum EAOC is 1.5 times higher than the MEA technology for 85% heat recovery. These results using microencapsulated sodium carbonate solution are a starting point that sets an upper limit on the cost of the MECS carbon-capture system. Improvements to the MECS capsules (e.g., using a higher carbonate concentration and lowering the shell mass transfer resistance) and also exploring other contactor technologies are expected to decrease the system cost and make it more competitive.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Self-Secure Inverters Against Malicious Setpoints

The next generation of grid-interactive inverters brings a communication feature that allows data sharing from utility supervisory controllers and smart devices that are connected to the same network. This feature enhances the control capabilities of grid-interactive inverters to provide services beyond active power injection. However, communication networks entail more vulnerable surfaces to malicious attacks that may result in modifying active and reactive power setpoints and causing weak-grid conditions or abnormal inverter operation. In this paper, steady-state and the dynamic behavior of the inverter for the incoming setpoints are analyzed to detect false data injection attacks and provide device-level security. The steady-state behavior of the inverter in the operating region is determined from the grid parameters such as the grid voltage and the grid impedance. These estimations are accomplished by the proposed self-security technique through a low-frequency signal injection-based approach combined with the recursive least square method. Moreover, a reduced fourth-order inverter model is used as the dynamic reference model, and grid parameters as well as the incoming setpoints are implemented to the reference model to verify whether the dynamic behavior of the inverter is inside the permissible region of operation. The validity and performance of the proposed method are verified experimentally through Allen-Bradley Powerflex 755 three-phase inverter and a 12 kW NHR 9410 regenerative power grid emulator. The results show that the self-secure smart-inverter is able to accept or reject the incoming commands and thus is protected from malicious cyber-physical attacks.

Hossen, Tareq↗
NASA NTRS1988

An adaptive human response mechanism controlling the V/STOL aircraft. Appendix 3: The adaptive control model of a pilot in V/STOL aircraft control loops

Importance of the role of human operator in control systems has led to the particular area of manual control theory. Human describing functions were developed to model human behavior for manual control studies to take advantage of the successful and safe human operations. A single variable approach is presented that can be extended for multi-variable tasks where a low order human response model is used together with its rules, to adapt the model on-line, being capable of responding to the changes in the controlled element dynamics. Basic control theory concepts are used to combine the model, constrained with the physical observations, particularly, for the case of aircraft control. Pilot experience is represented as the initial model parameters. An adaptive root-locus method is presented as the adaptation law of the model where the closed loop bandwidth of the system is to be preserved in a stable manner with the adjustments of the pilot handling qualities which relate the latter to the closed loop bandwidth and damping of the closed loop pilot aircraft combination. A Kalman filter parameter estimator is presented as the controlled element identifier of the adaptive model where any discrepancies of the open loop dynamics from the presented one, are sensed to be compensated.

Kucuk, Senol↗
DOE OSTI2020

Diesel Generator Model Parameterization for Microgrid Simulation Using Hybrid Box-Constrained Levenberg-Marquardt Algorithm

Existing generator parameterization methods, typically developed for large turbine generator units, are difficult to apply to small kW-level diesel generators in microgrid applications. Here, this article presents a model parameterization method that estimates a complete set of kW-level diesel generator parameters simultaneously using only load-step-change tests with limited measurement points. This method provides a more cost-efficient and robust approach to achieve high-fidelity modeling of diesel generators for microgrid dynamic simulation. A two-stage hybrid box-constrained Levenberg-Marquardt (H-BCLM) algorithm is developed to search the optimal parameter set given the parameter bounds. A heuristic algorithm, namely Generalized Opposition-based Learning Genetic Algorithm (GOL-GA), is applied to identify proper initial estimates at the first stage, followed by a modified Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm designed to fine tune the solution based on the first-stage result. The proposed method is validated against dynamic simulation of a diesel generator model and field measurements from a 16kW diesel generator unit.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2008

Evaluation of Ares-I Control System Robustness to Uncertain Aerodynamics and Flex Dynamics

This paper discusses the application of robust control theory to evaluate robustness of the Ares-I control systems. Three techniques for estimating upper and lower bounds of uncertain parameters which yield stable closed-loop response are used here: (1) Monte Carlo analysis, (2) mu analysis, and (3) characteristic frequency response analysis. All three methods are used to evaluate stability envelopes of the Ares-I control systems with uncertain aerodynamics and flex dynamics. The results show that characteristic frequency response analysis is the most effective of these methods for assessing robustness.

Jang, Jiann-Woei↗
NASA NTRS2011

Multi-Scale Hydrometeorological Modeling, Land Data Assimilation and Parameter Estimation with the Land Information System

The Land Information System (LIS; http://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov) is a flexible land surface modeling framework that has been developed with the goal of integrating satellite-and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. As such, LIS represents a step towards the next generation land component of an integrated Earth system model. In recognition of LIS object-oriented software design, use and impact in the land surface and hydrometeorological modeling community, the LIS software was selected as a co-winner of NASA?s 2005 Software of the Year award.LIS facilitates the integration of observations from Earth-observing systems and predictions and forecasts from Earth System and Earth science models into the decision-making processes of partnering agency and national organizations. Due to its flexible software design, LIS can serve both as a Problem Solving Environment (PSE) for hydrologic research to enable accurate global water and energy cycle predictions, and as a Decision Support System (DSS) to generate useful information for application areas including disaster management, water resources management, agricultural management, numerical weather prediction, air quality and military mobility assessment. LIS has e volved from two earlier efforts -- North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) that focused primarily on improving numerical weather prediction skills by improving the characterization of the land surface conditions. Both of GLDAS and NLDAS now use specific configurations of the LIS software in their current implementations.In addition, LIS was recently transitioned into operations at the US Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) to ultimately replace their Agricultural Meteorology (AGRMET) system, and is also used routinely by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) for their land data assimilation systems to support weather and climate modeling. LIS not only consolidates the capabilities of these two systems, but also enables a much larger variety of configurations with respect to horizontal spatial resolution, input datasets and choice of land surface model through "plugins". LIS has been coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to support studies of land-atmosphere coupling be enabling ensembles of land surface states to be tested against multiple representations of the atmospheric boundary layer. LIS has also been demonstrated for parameter estimation, who showed that the use of sequential remotely sensed soil moisture products can be used to derive soil hydraulic and texture properties given a sufficient dynamic range in the soil moisture retrievals and accurate precipitation inputs.LIS has also recently been demonstrated for multi-model data assimilation using an Ensemble Kalman Filter for sequential assimilation of soil moisture, snow, and temperature.Ongoing work has demonstrated the value of bias correction as part of the filter, and also that of joint calibration and assimilation.Examples and case studies demonstrating the capabilities and impacts of LIS for hydrometeorological modeling, assimilation and parameter estimation will be presented as advancements towards the next generation of integrated observation and modeling systems

Peters-Lidard, Christa D.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Stroboscopic Goggles as a Countermeasure for Dynamic Visual Acuity and Landing Sickness in Crewmembers Returning from Long-Duration Spaceflight

Long-term exposure to microgravity causes sensorimotor adaptations that result in functional deficits upon returning to a gravitational environment. At landing, the vestibular system and the central nervous system, responsible for coordinating head and eye movements via the vestibulo-occular reflex (VOR), are adapted to microgravity and must re-adapt to the Earth's gravitational environment. This re-adaptation causes decrements in gaze control and dynamic visual acuity, with astronauts reporting oscillopsia and blurred vision. These effects are caused by retinal slip, or the inability to keep an image focused on their retina, which is thought to drive motion sickness symptoms experienced upon landing. Retinal slip can be estimated by dynamic visual acuity (DVA); visual acuity while in motion. Peters et al. (2011) find that DVA is worsened in astronauts by an average of 0.75 eye-chart lines one day after landing. Previously, the use of stroboscopic goggles has shown to be effective in minimizing motion sickness symptoms due to retinal slip (Reschke et al. 2007). In this study, we simulated the decrement in DVA caused by sensorimotor re-adaptation by using minifying lenses and then testing the efficacy of stroboscopic goggles in preventing retinal slip and improving DVA. Dynamic visual acuity is assessed using an oscillating chair developed in the Neuroscience Laboratory at JSC. This chair is motor-driven and oscillates vertically at 2 Hz with a vertical displacement of +/- 2 cm to simulate the vertical translations that occur while walking. As the subject is being oscillated, they are asked to discern the direction of Landolt-C optotypes of varying sizes and record their direction using a gamepad. The visual acuity thresholds are determined using an algorithm that alters the size of the optotype based on the previous responses of the subject using a forced-choice best parameter estimation that is able to rapidly converge on the threshold value. Visual acuity thresholds were determined both for static (seated) and dynamic (oscillating) conditions. Dynamic visual acuity is defined as the difference between the dynamic and static conditions. We found that healthy subjects (n=20) have a significantly impaired DVA while wearing the minifying lenses, demonstrating that the VOR is in an adaptive state and retinal slip is occurring. When subjects' acuity was tested wearing the stroboscopic goggles with the minifying lenses, there was no significant difference in their DVA compared to their baseline DVA. This suggests that stroboscopic goggles are preventing retinal slip and would function as an efficient countermeasure for VOR adaptations and thus help mitigate landing sickness symptoms experienced by long-duration crewmembers. These goggles might also be used to counter blurred vision (caused by retinal slip) experienced by crewmembers during launch where the vehicle vibrations are greatest. The stroboscopic effect could be built into a section of their head mounted displays on the visor of their helmets to be used in these high vibration situation if a mission critical task is necessary.

Rosenberg, M. J. F.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neglecting Model Parametric Uncertainty Can Drastically Underestimate Flood Risks

Abstract Floods drive dynamic and deeply uncertain risks for people and infrastructures. Uncertainty characterization is a crucial step in improving the predictive understanding of multi‐sector dynamics and the design of risk‐management strategies. Current approaches to estimate flood hazards often sample only a relatively small subset of the known unknowns, for example, the uncertainties surrounding the model parameters. This approach neglects the impacts of key uncertainties on hazards and system dynamics. Here we mainstream a recently developed method for Bayesian inference to calibrate a computationally expensive distributed hydrologic model. We compare three different calibration approaches: (a) stepwise line search, (b) precalibration or screening, and (c) the Fast Model Calibrations (FaMoS) approach. FaMoS deploys a particle‐based approach that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high‐performance computing systems. We quantify how neglecting parametric uncertainty and data discrepancy can drastically underestimate extreme flood events and risks. Precalibration improves prediction skill score over a stepwise line search. The Bayesian calibration improves the uncertainty characterization of model parameters and flood risk projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Kinetic model development and Bayesian uncertainty quantification for the complete reduction of Fe-based oxygen carriers with CH 4 , CO, and H 2 for chemical looping combustion

In this work, three kinetic models are developed and calibrated for the complete multi-step reduction of an Fe-based oxygen carrier (OC) particle with CH 4 , CO, and H 2 , using data from thermogravimetric analysis. The complete reduction rate profiles exhibit complex dynamics whose trajectory is significantly different depending on the reducing gas. A Bayesian model building and parameter estimation framework is applied for simultaneous parameter and model structure uncertainty quantification. The final models show excellent agreement between model predictions and calibration data, as well as new data not used for calibration (for the reduction of the OC with CH 4 ). Parameter uncertainty is quantified by determining joint posterior distribution, and model structure uncertainty is addressed by incorporating Gaussian process stochastic functions (represented by Bayesian smoothing splines) into the kinetic models. The final kinetic models with discrepancy functions are readily employable in equation-oriented simulation and optimization platforms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1991

Precise time dissemination and applications development on the Bonneville Power Administration system

The Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) uses IRIG-B transmitted over microwave as its primary system time dissemination. Problems with accuracy and reliability have led to ongoing research into better methods. BPA has also developed and deployed a unique fault locator which uses precise clocks synchronized by a pulse over microwaves. It automatically transmits the data to a central computer for analysis. A proposed system could combine fault location timing and time dissemination into a Global Position System (GPS) timing receiver and close the verification loop through a master station at the Dittmer Control Center. Such a system would have many advantages, including lower cost, higher reliability, and wider industry support. Test results indicate the GPS has sufficient accuracy and reliability for this and other current timing requirements including synchronous phase angle measurements. A phasor measurement system which provides phase angle has recently been tested with excellent results. Phase angle is a key parameter in power system control applications including dynamic braking, DC modulation, remedial action schemes, and system state estimation. Further research is required to determine the applications which can most effectively use real-time phase angle measurements and the best method to apply them.

K. E. Martin↗
NASA NTRS1994

Array distribution in data-parallel programs

We consider distribution at compile time of the array data in a distributed-memory implementation of a data-parallel program written in a language like Fortran 90. We allow dynamic redistribution of data and define a heuristic algorithmic framework that chooses distribution parameters to minimize an estimate of program completion time. We represent the program as an alignment-distribution graph. We propose a divide-and-conquer algorithm for distribution that initially assigns a common distribution to each node of the graph and successively refines this assignment, taking computation, realignment, and redistribution costs into account. We explain how to estimate the effect of distribution on computation cost and how to choose a candidate set of distributions. We present the results of an implementation of our algorithms on several test problems.

Chatterjee, Siddhartha↗
NASA NTRS2005

Development of a Stirling System Dynamic Model With Enhanced Thermodynamics

The Stirling Convertor System Dynamic Model developed at NASA Glenn Research Center is a software model developed from first principles that includes the mechanical and mounting dynamics, the thermodynamics, the linear alternator, and the controller of a free-piston Stirling power convertor, along with the end user load. As such it represents the first detailed modeling tool for fully integrated Stirling convertor-based power systems. The thermodynamics of the model were originally a form of the isothermal Stirling cycle. In some situations it may be desirable to improve the accuracy of the Stirling cycle portion of the model. An option under consideration is to enhance the SDM thermodynamics by coupling the model with Gedeon Associates Sage simulation code. The result will be a model that gives a more accurate prediction of the performance and dynamics of the free-piston Stirling convertor. A method of integrating the Sage simulation code with the System Dynamic Model is described. Results of SDM and Sage simulation are compared to test data. Model parameter estimation and model validation are discussed.

Regan, Timothy F.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Differentiable Hydrology Approach for Modeling With Time-Varying Parameters

In the analysis of observational data with mathematical models, it is often desirable to let one or more model parameters vary with time to account for changing environmental conditions or to offer more flexibility. A standard approach for dynamic models is to allow for the number of parameters to grow as a function of time, leading to a high-dimensional inference problem for long data records. We propose using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, a gradient-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, to perform Bayesian inference for time-varying parameters (TVP) in hydrology models. As derivatives of model error functions with regard to parameters are not available in closed form, we implemented the GR4J rainfall-runoff models in Theano/PyMC3, and Jax/NumPyro, allowing for the application of automatic differentiation techniques. A simulation experiment assessing the viability of these methods for recovering underlying temporal variation in parameters indicates that a discrete Gaussian random walk-based prior appears to be best suited across a range of scenarios while the continuous-time Gaussian process compares relatively poorly. In an analysis of 20 years of daily real-world streamflow records from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) hydrology data set with increasing data sparsity and at multiple temporal resolutions, we find that TVP inference with gradient-based MCMC is a flexible and reliable approach for analyzing hydrology models with dynamic parameter sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗