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Results for “error estimation and analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1986

Precise orbit determination of a geosynchronous satellite with differential very-long-baseline interferometry

The use of differential VLBI (DVLBI) to determine the orbit of a U.S. geosynchronous satellite with a position accuracy of a few meters is examined. DVLBI was employed to track the geosynchronous satellite DSCS-II; two observation channels with 2 MHz bandwidth each in a 2 GHz band were used to receive the telemetry signal of the satellite and quasar radio signals. The random observation, delay, station location, and quasar position errors are discussed. The correlation processing of the quasar and satellite signals is described. The accuracy of the estimated satellite position is evaluated using a covariance analysis. It is determined that the satellite position was estimated with an accuracy of about 4 m at the center of the observation arc. It is noted that the modeling error of the solar radiation pressure factor, ionospheric correction error, and observation error need to be corrected in order to provide more accurate orbit determinations.

Shiomi, Tadashi↗
NASA NTRS2010

Reliability and Stability of VLBI-Derived Sub-Daily EOP Models

Recent investigations have shown significant shortcomings in the model which is proposed by the IERS to account for the variations in the Earth s rotation with periods around one day and less. To overcome this, an empirical model can be estimated more or less directly from the observations of space geodetic techniques. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the quality and reliability of such a model based on VLBI observations. Therefore, the impact of the estimation method and the analysis options as well as the temporal stability are investigated. It turned out that, in order to provide a realistic accuracy measure of the model coefficients, the formal errors should be inflated by a factor of three. This coincides with the noise floor and the repeatability of the model coefficients and it captures almost all of the differences that are caused by different estimation techniques. The impact of analysis options is small but significant when changing troposphere parameterization or including harmonic station position variations.

Artz, Thomas↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Use of three-cornered hat error estimates in MERRA-2 to guide an improved reanalysis-Part 1

The three-cornered hat (3CH) method estimates the uncertainties of three different co-located model or observational data sets (Anthes and Rieckh, 2018; Sjoberg et al., 2021). Rieckh et al. (2021) used the 3CH method to compare the random error statistics of different global forecast and reanalysis models, as well as radio occultation (RO) and radiosonde observations. That study showed that the MERRA-2 reanalysis, while having smaller errors in the stratosphere than its predecessor MERRA, had larger errors in the troposphere than many of the other data sets analyzed. The MERRA-2 errors were particularly large in the tropics. In a collaborative effort between UCAR’s COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Meteorology) program and NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), we carried out further 3CH error diagnostics to help isolate the causes of these larger errors and help guide the development of an improved reanalysis. This presentation summarizes random error statistics associated with MERRA-2, ECMWF’s ERA5 reanalysis, and COSMIC-2 (C2) RO observations. We compute 3CH error variance estimates of refractivity, as well as temperature and specific humidity using UCAR’s COSMIC Data Analysis and Archive Center (CDAAC) improved 1D-variational (1D-Var) retrieval (wetPf2) over 15 latitude bands from 45S to 45N. The 1D-Var retrievals of specific humidity and temperature for C2 use NCEP’s Global Forecast System (GFS) as the background. Anthes et al. (2021) showed that it gives accurate estimates of temperature and specific humidity in the tropics and subtropics, even in the challenging environment of intense Hurricane Dorian (2019). This presentation confirms the previous results that MERRA-2 has significantly larger errors in the tropics and subtropics than either C2 or ERA5. Its errors are larger between 30S and 30N compared to 30-45 N-S latitudes, and are also larger over land compared to oceans. Most of the MERRA-2 refractivity errors come from specific humidity, except over land below 3 km where temperature errors are large. These results suggest that moist convection and atmospheric boundary layer physics in MERRA-2 may be responsible for a significant part of the higher uncertainties. These results are being used to guide GMAO in developing an improved next-generation reanalysis, as shown in a companion presentation submitted to this conference (El Akkraoui et al., 2021), which extends this study and describes improvements to MERRA-2 leading to the next GMAO reanalysis.

Jeremiah Sjoberg↗
NASA NTRS1968

Study of optimum discrete estimators in measurement analysis

Study of statistical techniques for obtaining estimates of true data parameters uses discrete measured quantities containing random error. These techniques develop estimation procedures as an iterative algorithm for digital computation in real time.

Hung, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Synthesis and analysis of precise spaceborne laser ranging systems, volume 1

Measurement accuracy goals of 2 cm rms range estimation error and 0.003 cm/sec rms range rate estimation error, with no more than 1 cm (range) static bias error are requirements for laser measurement systems to be used in planned space-based earth physics investigations. Constraints and parameters were defined for links between a high altitude, transmit/receive satellite (HATRS), and one of three targets: a low altitude target satellite, passive (LATS), and active low altitude target, and a ground-based target, as well as with operations with a primary transmit/receive terminal intended to be carried as a shuttle payload, in conjunction with the Spacelab program.

Paddon, E. A.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Automatic documentation system extension to multi-manufacturers' computers and to measure, improve, and predict software reliability

The DOMONIC system has been modified to run on the Univac 1108 and the CDC 6600 as well as the IBM 370 computer system. The DOMONIC monitor system has been implemented to gather data which can be used to optimize the DOMONIC system and to predict the reliability of software developed using DOMONIC. The areas of quality metrics, error characterization, program complexity, program testing, validation and verification are analyzed. A software reliability model for estimating program completion levels and one on which to base system acceptance have been developed. The DAVE system which performs flow analysis and error detection has been converted from the University of Colorado CDC 6400/6600 computer to the IBM 360/370 computer system for use with the DOMONIC system.

Simmons, D. B.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reducing model error using optimized galaxy selection: weak lensing cluster mass estimation

Galaxy clusters are one of the most powerful probes to study extensions of General Relativity and the Standard Cosmological Model. Upcoming surveys like the Vera Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time are expected to revolutionise the field, by enabling the analysis of cluster samples of unprecedented size and quality. To reach this era of high-precision cluster cosmology, the mitigation of sources of systematic error is crucial. A particularly important challenge is bias in cluster mass measurements induced by the mismodelling of photometric redshift estimates of source galaxies. This work proposes a method to optimise the source sample selection in cluster weak lensing analyses drawn from wide-field survey lensing catalogs to reduce the bias on reconstructed cluster masses. We use a combinatorial optimisation scheme and methods from variational inference to select galaxies in latent space to produce a probabilistic galaxy source sample catalog for highly accurate cluster mass estimation. We show that our method reduces the critical surface mass density Σ crit relative modelling bias on the 60-70% level, while maintaining up to 90% of galaxies. We highlight that our methodology has applications beyond cluster mass estimation as an approach to jointly combine galaxy selection and model inference under sources of systematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1979

Sensitivity of Forecast Skill to Different Objective Analysis Schemes

Numerical weather forecasts are characterized by rapidly declining skill in the first 48 to 72 h. Recent estimates of the sources of forecast error indicate that the inaccurate specification of the initial conditions contributes substantially to this error. The sensitivity of the forecast skill to the initial conditions is examined by comparing a set of real-data experiments whose initial data were obtained with two different analysis schemes. Results are presented to emphasize the importance of the objective analysis techniques used in the assimilation of observational data.

Baker, W. E.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Snow Process Estimation Over the Extratropical Andes Using a Data Assimilation Framework Integrating MERRA Data and Landsat Imagery

A data assimilation framework was implemented with the objective of obtaining high resolution retrospective snow water equivalent (SWE) estimates over several Andean study basins. The framework integrates Landsat fractional snow covered area (fSCA) images, a land surface and snow depletion model, and the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis as a forcing data set. The outputs are SWE and fSCA fields (1985-2015) at a resolution of 90 m that are consistent with the observed depletion record. Verification using in-situ snow surveys showed significant improvements in the accuracy of the SWE estimates relative to forward model estimates, with increases in correlation (0.49-0.87) and reductions in root mean square error (0.316 m to 0.129 m) and mean error (-0.221 m to 0.009 m). A sensitivity analysis showed that the framework is robust to variations in physiography, fSCA data availability and a priori precipitation biases. Results from the application to the headwater basin of the Aconcagua River showed how the forward model versus the fSCA-conditioned estimate resulted in different quantifications of the relationship between runoff and SWE, and different correlation patterns between pixel-wise SWE and ENSO. The illustrative results confirm the influence that ENSO has on snow accumulation for Andean basins draining into the Pacific, with ENSO explaining approximately 25% of the variability in near-peak (1 September) SWE values. Our results show how the assimilation of fSCA data results in a significant improvement upon MERRA-forced modeled SWE estimates, further increasing the utility of the MERRA data for high-resolution snow modeling applications.

SWE↗
NASA NTRS2008

Generalized Linear Covariance Analysis

We review and extend in two directions the results of prior work on generalized covariance analysis methods. This prior work allowed for partitioning of the state space into "solve-for" and "consider" parameters, allowed for differences between the formal values and the true values of the measurement noise, process noise, and a priori solve-for and consider covariances, and explicitly partitioned the errors into subspaces containing only the influence of the measurement noise, process noise, and a priori solve-for and consider covariances. In this work, we explicitly add sensitivity analysis to this prior work, and relax an implicit assumption that the batch estimator s anchor time occurs prior to the definitive span. We also apply the method to an integrated orbit and attitude problem, in which gyro and accelerometer errors, though not estimated, influence the orbit determination performance. We illustrate our results using two graphical presentations, which we call the "variance sandpile" and the "sensitivity mosaic," and we compare the linear covariance results to confidence intervals associated with ensemble statistics from a Monte Carlo analysis.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗
NASA NTRS1984

LANDSAT Scene-to-scene Registration Accuracy Assessment

Initial results obtained from the registration of LANDSAT-4 data to LANDSAT-2 MSS data are documented and compared with results obtained from a LANDSAT-2 MSS-to-LANDSAT-2 scene-to-scene registration (using the same LANDSAT-2 MSS data as the base data set in both procedures). RMS errors calculated on the control points used in the establishment of scene-to-scene mapping equations are compared to error computed from independently chosen verification points. Models developed to estimate actual scene-to-scene registration accuracy based on the use of electrostatic plots are also presented. Analysis of results indicates a statistically significant difference in the RMS errors for the element contribution. Scan line errors were not significantly different. It appears that a modification to the LANDSAT-4 MSS scan mirror coefficients is required to correct the situation.

Anderson, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Mars gravity field error analysis from simulated radio tracking of Mars Observer

Results are presented on the analysis of the recovery of the Martian gravity field from tracking data in the presence of unmodeled error effects associated with different orbit orientations. The analysis was based on the mission plan for the Mars Observer (MO) radio tracking data from the Deep Space Network. From the analysis, a conservative estimate of the gravitational accuracy for the entire mission could be obtained. The results suggest that, because the atmospheric drag is the dominant error source, the spacecraft orbit could possibly be raised in altitude without a significant loss of gravitational signal. A change in altitude will also alleviate the large effects seen in the spectrum the satellite resonant orders.

Smith, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS1999

An Efficient Objective Analysis System for Parallel Computers

A new atmospheric objective analysis system designed for parallel computers will be described. The system can produce a global analysis (on a 1 X 1 lat-lon grid with 18 levels of heights and winds and 10 levels of moisture) using 120,000 observations in 17 minutes on 32 CPUs (SGI Origin 2000). No special parallel code is needed (e.g. MPI or multitasking) and the 32 CPUs do not have to be on the same platform. The system is totally portable and can run on several different architectures at once. In addition, the system can easily scale up to 100 or more CPUS. This will allow for much higher resolution and significant increases in input data. The system scales linearly as the number of observations and the number of grid points. The cost overhead in going from 1 to 32 CPUs is 18%. In addition, the analysis results are identical regardless of the number of processors used. This system has all the characteristics of optimal interpolation, combining detailed instrument and first guess error statistics to produce the best estimate of the atmospheric state. Static tests with a 2 X 2.5 resolution version of this system showed it's analysis increments are comparable to the latest NASA operational system including maintenance of mass-wind balance. Results from several months of cycling test in the Goddard EOS Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS) show this new analysis retains the same level of agreement between the first guess and observations (O-F statistics) as the current operational system.

Stobie, J.↗
NASA NTRS1983

AN-A46. LANDSAT scene-to-scene registration assessment

Initial results obtained from the registration of LANDSAT-4 MSS data to LANDSAT-2 MSS data are documented and compared with results obtained from a LANDSAT-2 MSS-to-LANDSAT-2 MSS scene-to-scene registration (using the same LANDSAT-2 MSS data as the base data set in both procedures). RMS errors calculated on the control points used in the establishment of scene-to-scene mapping equations are compared to errors computed from independently chosen verification points. Models developed to estimate actual scene-to-scene registration accuracy based on the use of electrostatic plots are also presented. Analysis or results obtained indicates a statistically significant difference in the RMS errors for the element contribution. Scan line errors were not significantly different. It appears that a modification to the LANDSAT-4 MSS scan mirror coefficients is required to correct the situation.

Anderson, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Global accuracy estimates of point and mean undulation differences obtained from gravity disturbances, gravity anomalies and potential coefficients

Through the method of truncation functions, the oceanic geoid undulation is divided into two constituents: an inner zone contribution expressed as an integral of surface gravity disturbances over a spherical cap; and an outer zone contribution derived from a finite set of potential harmonic coefficients. Global, average error estimates are formulated for undulation differences, thereby providing accuracies for a relative geoid. The error analysis focuses on the outer zone contribution for which the potential coefficient errors are modeled. The method of computing undulations based on gravity disturbance data for the inner zone is compared to the similar, conventional method which presupposes gravity anomaly data within this zone.

Jekeli, C.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Equivalent statistical bandwidths of conventional low-pass filters

Values of the equivalent statistical bandwidths of Butterworth up to ten poles and Chebyshev up to eight poles low-pass filters for six different passband ripple levels have been computed and tabulated along with the corresponding noise bandwidths. The results obtained can be used for estimating the mean-square error resulting from power spectrum measurements employed in the sensitivity analysis of microwave radiometer systems.

Stanley, W. D.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Statistical methods for astronomical data with upper limits. I - Univariate distributions

The statistical treatment of univariate censored data is discussed. A heuristic derivation of the Kaplan-Meier maximum-likelihood estimator from first principles is presented which results in an expression amenable to analytic error analysis. Methods for comparing two or more censored samples are given along with simple computational examples, stressing the fact that most astronomical problems involve upper limits while the standard mathematical methods require lower limits. The application of univariate survival analysis to six data sets in the recent astrophysical literature is described, and various aspects of the use of survival analysis in astronomy, such as the limitations of various two-sample tests and the role of parametric modelling, are discussed.

Feigelson, E. D.↗
NASA NTRS1986

An estimator-predictor approach to PLL loop filter design

An approach to the design of digital phase locked loops (DPLLs), using estimation theory concepts in the selection of a loop filter, is presented. The key concept is that the DPLL closed-loop transfer function is decomposed into an estimator and a predictor. The estimator provides recursive estimates of phase, frequency, and higher order derivatives, while the predictor compensates for the transport lag inherent in the loop. This decomposition results in a straightforward loop filter design procedure, enabling use of techniques from optimal and sub-optimal estimation theory. A design example for a particular choice of estimator is presented, followed by analysis of the associated bandwidth, gain margin, and steady state errors caused by unmodeled dynamics. This approach is under consideration for the design of the Deep Space Network (DSN) Advanced Receiver Carrier DPLL.

Statman, J. I.↗