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At least 307 records · Page 17

LAF-Net: A Deep Residual and Cross-Attention Framework for Day-Ahead Load Forecasting: Preprint

Accurate day-ahead load forecasting is essential for reliable power system operations and market efficiency. System operators such as the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) rely on forecasts from multiple vendors, yet combining them effectively remains a persistent challenge due to vendor-specific biases. This paper presents a novel LSTM-Attention Fusion Network with Error Representation (LAF-Net) that enhances day-ahead hourly load forecasting through deep residual learning and multi-modal cross-attention. The proposed model builds a historical error memory from past vendor performance and dynamically queries it with future hour context to generate adaptive, hour-specific trust weights for each vendor. A bounded residual correction further refines forecasts by mitigating systematic and temporally localized errors. Tested on real MISO LBA data with multi-vendor forecasts, LAF-Net consistently outperforms the best vendor baseline across all 38 LBAs, achieving more than a 40% reduction in system-level mean absolute error (MAE) during peak load hours relative to the best vendor baseline.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Reducing model error using optimized galaxy selection: weak lensing cluster mass estimation

Galaxy clusters are one of the most powerful probes to study extensions of General Relativity and the Standard Cosmological Model. Upcoming surveys like the Vera Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time are expected to revolutionise the field, by enabling the analysis of cluster samples of unprecedented size and quality. To reach this era of high-precision cluster cosmology, the mitigation of sources of systematic error is crucial. A particularly important challenge is bias in cluster mass measurements induced by the mismodelling of photometric redshift estimates of source galaxies. This work proposes a method to optimise the source sample selection in cluster weak lensing analyses drawn from wide-field survey lensing catalogs to reduce the bias on reconstructed cluster masses. We use a combinatorial optimisation scheme and methods from variational inference to select galaxies in latent space to produce a probabilistic galaxy source sample catalog for highly accurate cluster mass estimation. We show that our method reduces the critical surface mass density Σ crit relative modelling bias on the 60-70% level, while maintaining up to 90% of galaxies. We highlight that our methodology has applications beyond cluster mass estimation as an approach to jointly combine galaxy selection and model inference under sources of systematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Phase stability and interlayer interaction of blue phosphorene

In this work, we study the interlayer interactions between sheets of blue phosphorus with quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) methods. Here, we find that as previously observed in black phosphorus, interlayer binding of blue phosphorus cannot be described by van der Waals (vdW) interactions alone within the density functional theory framework. Specifically, while some vdW density functionals produced reasonable binding curves, none of them could provide a correct, even qualitatively, description of charge redistribution due to interlayer binding. We also show that small systematic errors in common practice QMC calculations, such as the choice of optimized geometry and finite-size corrections, are non-negligible given the energy and length scales of this problem. We mitigate some of the major sources of error and report QMC-optimized lattice constant, stacking, and interlayer binding energy for blue phosphorus. Finally, it is strongly suggested that these considerations are important and quite general in the modeling of two-dimensional phosphorus allotropes.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Multi-Fidelity Scheme for Accelerating 4D Finite Element Analysis for Mircoreactors

Next-generation microreactors are currently being designed to be operated terrestrial and extraterrestrial for remote surface power production. These systems will provide an alternative source of carbon-free energy that is versatile and can be utilized for various applications. These applications of microreactors have prompted the usage of high-fidelity unstructured finite element (FE) based approaches to provide time-dependent solutions for multiple physics fields. Computing these high-fidelity (4-D) solutions for multiple design iterations, physics fields, and transient events requires an immense computational cost. These high-fidelity solutions are computational expensive and the cost can be reduced through the implementation of less accurate low-fidelity solutions. Unlike the current fleet of commercial nuclear reactors, these next-gen systems present challenges due to the material and physical limitations required. Due to these constraints, the brute force technique of parameterizing important system characteristics determines whether a design meets the project objective. A system such as a nuclear reactor could have thousands of design parameters that affect system performance. In order to analyze the entire parameter space of such a complex system would require millions of CPU hours and countless design iterations. This costly approach is not practical due to regulatory and budget limitations. In this proposal, an approach that utilizes hybrid high-fidelity and low-fidelity FE models to reduce the computational cost of evaluating these applications in 4-D will be presented. The accuracy of the high-fidelity model and the computational efficiency of the low-fidelity model are taken advantage of to produce a solution that closely resembles the full order high-fidelity solution. By utilizing an unconverged coarse FE mesh, operation limits such as temperature, structural loading, etc., can be evaluated in an accelerated fashion and then can be spatially interpolated onto a finer mesh. The resulting error arising from the coarse mesh can be mitigated with a discrepancy function that actively quantifies and corrects the error in the coarse solution. This discrepancy function can be periodically updated with high-fidelity calculations across the temporal domain thus requiring less iterations on the fine mesh. As a result, the computational cost can be reduced for the evaluation and design iteration of microreactors. The proposal for this research contains three sections: Section 2 provides a literature review, Section 3 outlines the methodology for the proposed multi-fidelity scheme, and Section 4 displays preliminary results of the proposed research.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Applications of principal component analysis for energy reconstruction in position-sensitive semiconductor detectors

We report semiconductor detectors with pixelated anodes offer a desirable combination of position sensitivity and energy resolution that are suitable for numerous applications in gamma-ray detection and imaging. Pixelization of electrodes also entails a non-uniform amplitude response as a function of gamma-ray interaction position. Energy calibrations as a function of interaction position improve energy resolution, but systematic errors in the energy reconstruction process persist and limit energy resolution at fixed electronic noise. Digitization of signals induced on collecting and adjacent electrodes offers rich information about gamma-ray interactions and their charge drift and collection as a function of time. Despite the abundance of signals for each interaction, human intuition and rule-based approaches fail to utilize the entire set of observed signals to mitigate the sources of systematic error. In order to maximize the utility of digitized signals and improve energy resolution, principal component analysis is applied towards digitized signals observed in semiconductor detectors with pixelated anodes. Principal components identified in the process form the basis for position-specific energy corrections. By leveraging this additional information encoded within digitized signals, energy resolution improves by factors between 10 and 15% with respect to full-width at half and tenth maximum values. The feature that accounts for the maximum amount of explained variance between interactions in any given pixel correlates strongly with the depth of interaction.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Superdense coding interleaved with forward error correction

Superdense coding promises increased classical capacity and communication security but this advantage may be undermined by noise in the quantum channel. We present a numerical study of how forward error correction (FEC) applied to the encoded classical message can be used to mitigate against quantum channel noise. By studying the bit error rate under different FEC codes, we identify the unique role that burst errors play in superdense coding, and we show how these can be mitigated against by interleaving the FEC codewords prior to transmission. As a result, we conclude that classical FEC with interleaving is a useful method to improve the performance in near-term demonstrations of superdense coding.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Mitigation of spatial nonstationarity with vision transformers

Spatial nonstationarity, the location variance of features’ statistical distributions, is ubiquitous in many natural settings. For example, in geological reservoirs rock matrix porosity varies vertically due to geomechanical compaction trends, in mineral deposits grades vary due to sedimentation and concentration processes, in hydrology rainfall varies due to the atmosphere and topography interactions, and in metallurgy crystalline structures vary due to differential cooling. Conventional geostatistical modeling workflows rely on the assumption of stationarity to be able to model spatial features for geostatistical inference. Nevertheless, this is often not a realistic assumption when dealing with nonstationary spatial data and this has motivated a variety of nonstationary spatial modeling workflows such as trend and residual decomposition, cosimulation with secondary features, and spatial segmentation and independent modeling over stationary subdomains. The advent of deep learning technologies has enabled new workflows for modeling spatial relationships. However, there is a paucity of demonstrated best practice and general guidance on mitigation of spatial nonstationarity with deep learning in the geospatial context. We demonstrate the impact of two common types of geostatistical spatial nonstationarity on deep learning model prediction performance and propose the mitigation of such impacts using self-attention (vision transformer) models. We demonstrate the utility of vision transformers for the mitigation of nonstationarity with relative errors as low as 10%, exceeding the performance of alternative deep learning methods such as convolutional neural networks. We establish best practice by demonstrating the ability of self-attention networks for modeling large-scale spatial relationships in the presence of commonly observed geospatial nonstationarity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

I Know I'm Right, But Does My Phone?

Transportation is the largest source of green-house gas emissions in the United States. Reducing transportation emissions depends on human travel behavior, which relies on local land use and planning. Travel diaries, consisting of sequences of trips between places for a particular individual, are typically used to instrument human travel behavior. However, these diaries are only as accurate as the underlying methods used to construct them. Travel diary algorithms have been a popular research topic since the advent of GPS tracking surveys. Mode inference algorithms in particular have been well represented in literature. However, these algorithms have typically been validated using prompted recall of pre-segmented trips, which doesn't account for segmentation error, thus disregarding the continuity of mode inference. Furthermore, phone operating systems and applications have adopted battery-conserving techniques, but we are not aware of prior work that has characterized the resulting data collection errors or evaluated procedures to mitigate them. We introduce a framework to evaluate accuracy of trip length computations and mode inference. We develop a temporal alignment procedure in analyzing continuous mode-segmented trajectories for groups of trips. We then apply our framework to evaluate an example set of travel diary algorithms from the open-source OpenPATH travel diary platform against MobilityNet, a public dataset containing information from three artificial timelines that cover 15 different travel modes. Our results show that inference based on an integration with map features results in weighted F_1 scores of 0.60 (iOS) and 0.74 (android). We also show that OpenPATH tends to under count trip length, with mean of signed relative error of -0.0438 on android and -0.0704 on iOS. We hope that other travel diary algorithms will be evaluated using this standardized process, and that the results used to understand and improve the state-of-the-art in this field.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Modeling Liquid Water by Climbing up Jacob’s Ladder in Density Functional Theory Facilitated by Using Deep Neural Network Potentials

Within the framework of Kohn–Sham density functional theory (DFT), the ability to provide good predictions of water properties by employing a strongly constrained and appropriately normed (SCAN) functional has been extensively demonstrated in recent years. Here, we further advance the modeling of water by building a more accurate model on the fourth rung of Jacob’s ladder with the hybrid functional, SCAN0. In particular, we carry out both classical and Feynman path-integral molecular dynamics calculations of water with the SCAN0 functional and the isobaric–isothermal ensemble. To generate the equilibrated structure of water, a deep neural network potential is trained from the atomic potential energy surface based on ab initio data obtained from SCAN0 DFT calculations. For the electronic properties of water, a separate deep neural network potential is trained by using the Deep Wannier method based on the maximally localized Wannier functions of the equilibrated trajectory at the SCAN0 level. The structural, dynamic, and electric properties of water were analyzed. The hydrogen-bond structures, density, infrared spectra, diffusion coefficients, and dielectric constants of water, in the electronic ground state, are computed by using a large simulation box and long simulation time. For the properties involving electronic excitations, we apply the GW approximation within many-body perturbation theory to calculate the quasiparticle density of states and bandgap of water. Compared to the SCAN functional, mixing exact exchange mitigates the self-interaction error in the meta-generalized-gradient approximation and further softens liquid water toward the experimental direction. For most of the water properties, the SCAN0 functional shows a systematic improvement over the SCAN functional. However, some important discrepancies remain. The H-bond network predicted by the SCAN0 functional is still slightly overstructured compared to the experimental results.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Optimal Demand Response Incorporating Distribution LMP with PV Generation Uncertainty

The utilization of aggregated demand-side flexibility via demand response (DR) has become a promising pathway for the integration of renewable energy resources in power systems. Nowadays, there are several management strategies for DR such as the price-based transactive control strategies. However, many of such existing price-based control strategies neglect the physics and operational constraints of the underlying distribution networks when computing the price, raising concerns regarding their theoretical and practical values. This paper studies this issue and investigates optimal DR (ODR) by incorporating the distribution locational marginal price (DLMP). In particular, we discuss DR in connection with DLMPs and propose a multiperiod bilevel optimization problem to find the ODR strategy. Here, the objective is to minimize the peak load, load fluctuation, and payments of load aggregators. In addition, a robust bilevel ODR model is formulated to provide a robust ODR strategy while minimizing operating costs under the worst-case realization of uncertainties; this mitigates the impact of forecasting errors on renewable energy resources. Then, we propose an efficient solution approach by employing the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions and strong duality. Simulation results are presented to illustrate the mutual impacts of the interaction between DR and DLMP and the benefits of the robust ODR strategy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Feynman diagrams for matter wave interferometry

We introduce a new theoretical framework based on Feynman diagrams to compute phase shifts in matter wave interferometry. The method allows for analytic computation of higher order quantum corrections, beyond the traditional semi-classical approximation. These additional terms depend on the finite size of the initial matter wavefunction and/or have higher order dependence on ℏ. We apply the method to compute the response of matter wave interferometers to power law potentials and potentials with an arbitrary spatial dependence. The analytic expressions are validated by comparing to numerical simulations, and estimates are provided for the scale of the quantum corrections to the phase shift response to the gravitational field of the earth, anharmonic trapping potentials, and gravitational fields from local proof masses. We also find that for certain experimentally feasible parameters, these corrections are large enough to be measured and could lead to systematic errors if they are not mitigated. We find that to first order in a spatially dependent potential, quantum corrections vanish when the initial matter wavepacket has spherical symmetry and the potential satisfies Laplace's equation. We anticipate these quantum corrections will be especially important for trapped matter wave interferometers and for free-space matter wave interferometers in the presence of proof masses. These interferometers are becoming increasingly sensitive tools for mobile inertial sensing, gravity surveying, tests of gravity and its interplay with quantum mechanics, and searches for dark energy.

Glick, Jonah [Northwestern U.; Fermilab] (ORCID:00↗

Second-surface silvered glass solar mirrors of very high reflectance

This paper reports methods developed to maximize the overall reflectance second-surface silvered glass. The reflectance at shorter wavelengths is increased with the aid of a dielectric enhancing layer between the silver and the glass, while at longer wavelengths it is enhanced by use of glass with negligible iron content. The calculated enhancement of reflectance, compared to unenhanced silver on standard low-iron float glass, corresponds to a 4.4% increase in reflectance averaged across the full solar spectrum, appropriate for CSP, and 2.7% for CPV systems using triple junction cells. An experimental reflector incorporating these improvements, of drawn crown glass and a silvered second-surface with dielectric boost, was measured at NREL to have 95.4% solar weighted reflectance. For comparison, non-enhanced, wetsilvered reflectors of the same 4 mm thickness show reflectance ranging from 91.6 - 94.6%, depending on iron content. A potential drawback of using iron-free drawn glass is reduced concentration in high concentration systems because of the inherent surface errors. This effect is largely mitigated for glass shaped by slumping into a concave mold, rather than by bending.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

MO-G-BRE-08: Taxonomy of Corrective Actions in Radiotherapy

Purpose: Various causal taxonomies have been developed for healthcare incidents and for radiation therapy in particular. The causal analysis of incidents leads to corrective actions which can also be organized into a taxonomy. Such a corrective action classification system would provide information about the situational context, the action type, and the leverage of the action in order to detect patterns in the corrective actions frequently employed in radiation therapy. It would also provide practical guidance to the radiation therapy community for determining the appropriateness and potential effectiveness of proposed corrective actions. Materials: A review of causal analysis reports and corrective action plans was conducted using the following sources: US NRC medical event reports, IAEA reports, ROSIS submissions, US Veterans Health Administration reports, and singleincident report sources. The corrective actions presented in the published sources were then mapped onto four corrective action taxonomy prototypes: role-based, safety-context-based, responsibility-based, and hierarchy of hazard control. The resulting corrective action taxonomy was then validated through use of the published sources. Results: The responsibility-based taxonomy and hierarchy of hazard taxonomy provided more intuitive and sensible categories than the role-based taxonomy or the safety-context taxonomy. The most frequent corrective actions were added safety barriers, training, process standardization, and development of a quality improvement program where one was lacking. Conclusion: Published corrective action statements in radiation therapy emphasize what to do more so than whom the recipient is or which process step is affected. The hierarchy of hazard taxonomy provides a suitable framework for radiation therapy and has the advantage of providing insight into the likelihood that a particular corrective action will mitigate the recurrence of the error it was meant to correct. This information would be useful to medical center administration, safety personnel, and regulators who must assess the projected efficacy of corrective actions. Derek Brown is a director of TreatSafely, LLC.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Process-based quality management for clinical implementation of adaptive radiotherapy

Purpose: Intensity-modulated adaptive radiotherapy (ART) has been the focus of considerable research and developmental work due to its potential therapeutic benefits. However, in light of its unique quality assurance (QA) challenges, no one has described a robust framework for its clinical implementation. In fact, recent position papers by ASTRO and AAPM have firmly endorsed pretreatment patient-specific IMRT QA, which limits the feasibility of online ART. The authors aim to address these obstacles by applying failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) to identify high-priority errors and appropriate risk-mitigation strategies for clinical implementation of intensity-modulated ART. Methods: An experienced team of two clinical medical physicists, one clinical engineer, and one radiation oncologist was assembled to perform a standard FMEA for intensity-modulated ART. A set of 216 potential radiotherapy failures composed by the forthcoming AAPM task group 100 (TG-100) was used as the basis. Of the 216 failures, 127 were identified as most relevant to an ART scheme. Using the associated TG-100 FMEA values as a baseline, the team considered how the likeliness of occurrence (O), outcome severity (S), and likeliness of failure being undetected (D) would change for ART. New risk priority numbers (RPN) were calculated. Failures characterized by RPN ≥ 200 were identified as potentially critical. Results: FMEA revealed that ART RPN increased for 38% (n = 48/127) of potential failures, with 75% (n = 36/48) attributed to failures in the segmentation and treatment planning processes. Forty-three of 127 failures were identified as potentially critical. Risk-mitigation strategies include implementing a suite of quality control and decision support software, specialty QA software/hardware tools, and an increase in specially trained personnel. Conclusions: Results of the FMEA-based risk assessment demonstrate that intensity-modulated ART introduces different (but not necessarily more) risks than standard IMRT and may be safely implemented with the proper mitigations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

An Efficient High-Order Solver for Diffusion Equations with Strong Anisotropy on Non-Anisotropy-Aligned Meshes

This paper concerns numerical solution of the diffusion equation with strong anisotropy on meshes not aligned with the anisotropic vector field. In order to resolve the numerical pollution for simulations on a non-anisotropy-aligned mesh and reduce the associated high computational cost we propose an effective preconditioner, extending our previous work. Similar to the anisotropy-aligned mesh case, we apply the auxiliary space preconditioning framework to design a preconditioner where a continuous finite element space is used as the auxiliary space for the discontinuous finite element space. The key component is an effective line smoother that can mitigate the high-frequency errors perpendicular to the magnetic field. We design a graph-based approach to find such a line smoother that is approximately perpendicular to the vector fields when the mesh does not align with the anisotropy. Finally, numerical experiments for several benchmark problems are presented, demonstrating the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed preconditioner when applied to Krylov iterative methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A 15-year record of CO emissions constrained by MOPITT CO observations

Long-term measurements from satellites and surface stations have demonstrated a decreasing trend of tropospheric carbon monoxide (CO) in the Northern Hemisphere over the past decade. Likely explanations for this decrease include changes in anthropogenic, fires, and/or biogenic emissions or changes in the primary chemical sink hydroxyl radical (OH). Using remotely sensed CO measurements from the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) satellite instrument, in situ methyl chloroform (MCF) measurements from the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG) and the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem model, we estimate the change in global CO emissions from 2001 to 2015. We show that the loss rate of MCF varied by 0.2 % in the past 15 years, indicating that changes in global OH distributions do not explain the recent decrease in CO. Our two-step inversion approach for estimating CO emissions is intended to mitigate the effect of bias errors in the MOPITT data as well as model errors in transport and chemistry, which are the primary factors contributing to the uncertainties when quantifying CO emissions using these remotely sensed data. Our results confirm that the decreasing trend of tropospheric CO in the Northern Hemisphere is due to decreasing CO emissions from anthropogenic and biomass burning sources. In particular, we find decreasing CO emissions from the United States and China in the past 15 years, and unchanged anthropogenic CO emissions from Europe since 2008. We find decreasing trends of biomass burning CO emissions from boreal North America, boreal Asia and South America, but little change over Africa. In contrast to prior results, we find that a positive trend in CO emissions is likely for India and southeast Asia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimating pixel variances in the scenes of staring sensors

A technique for detecting changes in a scene perceived by a staring sensor is disclosed. The technique includes acquiring a reference image frame and a current image frame of a scene with the staring sensor. A raw difference frame is generated based upon differences between the reference image frame and the current image frame. Pixel error estimates are generated for each pixel in the raw difference frame based at least in part upon spatial error estimates related to spatial intensity gradients in the scene. The pixel error estimates are used to mitigate effects of camera jitter in the scene between the current image frame and the reference image frame.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

First-order crosstalk mitigation in parallel quantum gates driven with multi-photon transitions

Here, we demonstrate an order of magnitude reduction in the sensitivity to optical crosstalk for neighboring trapped-ion qubits during simultaneous single-qubit gates driven with individual addressing beams. Gates are implemented via two-photon Raman transitions, where crosstalk is mitigated by offsetting the drive frequencies for each qubit to avoid first-order crosstalk effects from inter-beam two-photon resonance. The technique is simple to implement, and we find that phase-dependent crosstalk due to optical interference is reduced on the most impacted neighbor from a maximal fractional rotation error of 0.185(4) without crosstalk mitigation to ≤0.006 with the mitigation strategy. Furthermore, we characterize first-order crosstalk in the two-qubit gate and avoid the resulting rotation errors for the arbitrary-axis Mølmer–Sørensen gate via a phase-agnostic composite gate. Finally, we demonstrate holistic system performance by constructing a composite CNOT gate using the improved single-qubit gates and phase-agnostic two-qubit gate. This work is done on the Quantum Scientific Computing Open User Testbed; however, our methods are widely applicable for individual addressing Raman gates and impose no significant overhead, enabling immediate improvement for quantum processors that incorporate this technique.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗