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At least 307 records · Page 17

Planning for cooler communities: Vacant lots as components of heat resilience in Mesa, Arizona

Vacant lots are often perceived as contributing to negative socioeconomic and environmental impacts on surrounding communities. However, they also offer opportunities for strategic interventions that promote heat resilience. This study uses a decision-scale congruence analytic approach to examine the correlation between extreme heat and community resilience in the context of vacant lots in the city of Mesa, Arizona. By identifying and analyzing over 1,200 vacant lots, we assessed spatial patterns of Community Resilience Estimates (CRE) for Heat and Body Heat Storage (BHS) to understand their correlation at the unit of analysis of vacant lots, where key decisions are made concerning land use. The results reveal a nonrandom spatial distribution of CRE for Heat and BHS across Mesa’s vacant lots. Vacant lots are disproportionately concentrated in neighborhoods with lower resilience, exacerbating heat exposure. Communities with limited access to cooling infrastructure, tree canopy, and other resources experience lowered heat resilience. A positive correlation between CRE for Heat and BHS shows that areas with higher heat exposure tend to have lower community resilience, reinforcing the need for cooling interventions. This study highlights the potential for converting vacant lots into heat-resilient, community-serving spaces. Using our findings, decision makers can identify priority areas and leverage vacant lots to mitigate heat impacts and foster community resilience.

community resilience↗

The Role of Internal Variability in Springtime Arctic Amplification from 1980 to 2022

Arctic amplification (AA) refers to the enhanced warming of the Arctic relative to the global average due to rising greenhouse gases, measured as the ratio of Arctic-mean to global-mean surface air temperature (SAT) trends. From 1980 to 2022, annual-mean AA reached 4.2 (Arctic defined as north of 70°N). Climate models simulate AA but fail to reproduce its magnitude. Sweeney et al. attributed much of this model–observation discrepancy to internal variability. AA shows seasonality and so does the discrepancy. Spring (March–May) shows the largest gap: Observed AA is 4.2, while the multimodel mean is 2.7. This raises several questions: 1) What role does internal variability play in observed spring AA? 2) How does simulated spring AA compare to observations when internal variability is removed? 3) If internal variability is significant, what mechanisms drive it? To address these, we adapted the machine learning algorithm from Sweeney et al., training on simulated multidecadal spring SAT and sea level pressure (SLP) trend maps. Our results show that internal variability enhanced spring Arctic warming by 37% and reduced global warming by 10%. Removing internal variability reconciles the spring AA discrepancy. The estimated internal contribution to Arctic spring warming is supported by an independent dynamical adjustment approach. We identify an atmospheric circulation pattern in observations associated with this internal warming. Observed internal Siberian SAT and SLP trends follow the simulated SAT–SLP relationship but lie at the distribution’s extreme, suggesting models generally underestimate internal variability unless the observed configuration reflects a rare real-world realization.

Arctic↗

Isotopic constraints on crustal growth and recycling

The Sm-Nd isotopic data on clastic and chemical sediments are used with the present-day age distribution of continental crustal rocks to estimate the rates of crustal accretion, growth and recycling throughout earth's history. A new method for interpreting Nd model ages on both chemical and clastic sediments is proposed. A general relationship is derived between the mean crustal residence time of material recycled from the crust to the mantle (i.e., sediments), the mean age of the crust, and the crustal growth and recycling rates. This relationship takes into account the fact that the age distribution of material in the continental crust is generally different from the age distribution of material recycled into the mantle. The episodic nature of the present-day age distribution in crustal rocks results in similar episodicity in the accretion and recycling rates. The results suggest that by about 3.8 Ga ago, about 40 percent of the present continental volume was present. Recycling rates were extremely high 3-4 Ga ago and declined rapidly to an insignificant value of about 0.1 cu km/a during most of the Phanerozoic. The Nd model age pattern on sediments suggests a fairly high rate of growth during the Phanerozoic.

Jacobsen, Stein B.↗

Imaging the End-to-End Dynamics of the Global Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Interaction

Much of what we know about the solar wind’s interaction with the Earth’s magnetosphere has been gained from isolated in situ measurements by single or multiple spacecraft. Based on their observations, we know that reconnection, whether on the dayside magnetopause or deep within the Earth’s magnetotail, controls the flow of solar wind energy into and through the global system. We know that nightside activity provides the energized particles that power geomagnetic storms. But by their very nature these isolated in situ measurements cannot provide an instantaneous global view of the entire system or its cross-scale dynamics. As a result, we don’t know which mode of reconnection prevails on the dayside magnetopause or within the magnetotail as a function of solar wind and geomagnetic conditions. We don’t know which mode or modes of nightside activity supply the most energized particles to the ring current. Nor do we know the dominant loss mode for ring current decay: precipitation, magnetopause outflow, or charge exchange with neutrals. Nor do we know how processes deep within the magnetosphere provide feedback to those happening in the outer magnetosphere. The answers to these questions could have an impact far beyond magnetospheric physics, since magnetic reconnection, particle acceleration, and charge-exchange are fundamental plasma processes that operate at other planets and throughout the universe. Comprehensive end-to-end global imaging of the key micro, meso-, and macro-scale plasma structures that comprise the magnetosphere will provide the answers to these questions via observations with a spatial resolution that exceeds anything possible with in situ measurements. Each proposed interaction mechanism generates a diagnostic plasma structure or boundary signature. Global, end-to-end, imaging provides the pathway to understanding the system as a whole, its constituent parts, and its cross-scale processes on a continuous basis, as needed to quantify the flow of solar wind energy through the global magnetospheric system. The significance of each mechanism is the product of its amplitude and occurrence rate. This white paper describes how a comprehensively-instrumented single spacecraft in a high-latitude circular polar orbit can provide the essential observations needed to track and quantify the flow of solar wind energy through the magnetosphere, including the solar wind plasma and magnetic field input, the magnetopause location in soft X-rays, the auroral oval in far ultraviolet, the ring current in energetic neutrals, the plasmasphere in extreme ultraviolet, the exosphere in Lyman-, the microstructure of the nightside auroral oval in ground-based all sky cameras, and the magnetic perturbations of ionospheric current patterns seen by ground-based magnetometers.

D G Sibeck↗

Is the Linear Mode Conversion Theory Viable for Generating Kilometric Continuum?

Kilometric Continuum (KC) usually exhibits a complicated banded radiation pattern observed in frequency time spectrograms. Can the number of bands, the frequency range over which the bands are observed, and their time variation be explained with Linear Mode Conversion Theory (LMCT) using realistic plasmapause models and Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) plasmaspheric observations? In this paper we compare KC observations with simulated frequency emission bands based on LMCT for a number of cases. In LMCT the allowed frequency range across the equatorial plasmapause is restricted to frequencies much greater than the electron cyclotron frequency (fce) and less than the maximum plasma frequency in this region. Fce also determines the number of allowed bands in this range. Is the observed frequency range and number of bands consistent with the predications of LMCT? Can irregularities in the shape of plasmaspheric structures like notches be observed in the time variations of KC emissions? We will investigate these and other questions. Simulated radiation patterns will be generated by ray tracing calculations in the L-O mode from the radio window at the near equatorial plasmapause. The KC observations used in this study are from the Plasma Wave Instrument on the Geotail spacecraft and from the Radio Plasma Imager on the IMAGE spacecraft. The plasmasphere and plasmapause will be derived either from plasmasphere simulations, from images by the EUV imager on the IMAGE spacecraft, and by using empirical models. In situ plasma density measurements from a number of spacecraft will also be used in order to reconstruct the plasmasphere for these case studies.

Boardsen, Scott A.↗

An investigation to improve the Menhaden fishery prediction and detection model through the application of ERTS-A data

The author has identified the following significant results. Preliminary analyses indicate that several important relationships have been observed utilizing ERTS-1 imagery. Of most significance is that in the Mississippi Sound, as elsewhere, considerable detail exists as to turbidity patterns in the water column. Simple analysis is complicated by the apparent interaction between actual turbidity, turbidity induced by shoal water, and actual imaging of the bottom in extreme shoal water. A statistical approach is being explored which shows promise of at least partially separating these effects so that partitioning of true turbid plumes can be accomplished. This partitioning is of great importance to this program in that supportive data seem to indicate that menhaden occur more frequently in turbid areas. In this connection four individual captures have been associated with a major turbid feature imaged on 6 August. If a significant relationship between imaged turbid features and catch distribution can be established, for example by graphic and/or numeric analysis, it will represent a major advancement for short term prediction of commercially accessible menhaden.

Maughan, P. M.↗

Tropical and extratropical forcing of the large-scale circulation - A diagnostic study

Seasonal anomalies in the large-scale circulation are studied in relation to seasonal-mean tropical forcing and extratropical transient-eddy forcing using nine years of tropical-wind and outgoing-longwave-radiation (OLR) data. Results show that in the interannual time scale, extreme swings in anomalous convection over the maritime continent of Indonesia/Borneo and the equatorial central Pacific are linked, respectively, by an east-west seesaw or a dipole pattern, identified with major fluctuations of the Pacific Walker circulation. It is found that extratropical circulation anomalies are related to the fluctuation of this dipole heat source. The overall extratropical circulation seems to be more responsive to the dipole heating with enhanced convection over the maritime continent. While the characteristics of the transient eddies, especially near the exit region of the East Asia jet stream, change substantially between maximum or minimum convection episodes, these transient eddies (defined as transients from the seasonal mean) appear to be unimportant in forcing the seasonal mean circulation anomalies.

Lau, K. M.↗

Detection and Characterization of Imperfections in Composite Pressure Vessels

The thermographic evaluation of composite structures for delaminations, disbonds, inclusions, porosity and microcracking has proven to be a valuable asset in the field of nondestructive testing. Coupling large area coverage, variable sensitivity and minimal surface contact with a photographic type image representation of structural anomalies; thermography has become a primary inspection method for composite structures. Thermography works well for locating both surface and subsurface defects in most composite systems ranging in thickness of up to 0.25 inch (0.64 cm) or more. The thermographic method for inspection of composite structures typically involves applying an external source of heat to the structure and then recording the changes in the surface heat profile manifested by embedded defects or by material property variations. If these temperature variations are large enough and an infrared camera with sufficient sensitivity is used, then the material or structural abnormality can be detected and referred back to its source. Interpreting the information given in a thermogram, can be a difficult task under ideal circumstances and extremely challenging in a real world setting. Variables including depth, thermal conductivity, orientation and size of the abnormality can all have a great influence on how its heat pattern will be seen by the imager. The work discussed in this paper illustrates how the microstructure of several commonly found defects in composite structures relate to their thermographic image counterpart. Two test cases are studied herein, including a large graphite/epoxy RP-1 fuel tank and a graphite composite cryogenic fuel feedline. The structures used in this study were designed to serve as manufacturing proof of concept specimens and to undergo hydroburst testing to verify manufacturing practices and structural design. Prior to hydrostatic testing the structures underwent 100% thermographic evaluation to ensure that no manufacturing or handling damage was present. Due to a large inclusion found in the feedline, it was pulled from service and dissected without performing the hydroproof The thermographic indications found in the RP-1 tank were below critical limits so it underwent a complete hydroproof loading series and finally a hydroburst. Following the hydroburst samples were cut from the tank in regions where thermography had located damage before the test. These regions were thermographically and then were cross-sectioned and photomicrographed.

Walker, James L.↗

Ultraviolet and Extreme-Ultraviolet Emissions at the Flare Footpoints Observed by Atmosphere Imaging Assembly

A solar flare is composed of impulsive energy release events by magnetic reconnection, which forms and heats flare loops. Recent studies have revealed a two-phase evolution pattern of UV 1600 A emission at the feet of these loops: a rapid pulse lasting for a few seconds to a few minutes, followed by a gradual decay on timescales of a few tens of minutes. Multiple band EUV observations by the Atmosphere Imaging Assembly further reveal very similar signatures. These two phases represent different but related signatures of an impulsive energy release in the corona. The rapid pulse is an immediate response of the lower atmosphere to an intense thermal conduction flux resulting from the sudden heating of the corona to high temperatures (we rule out energetic particles due to a lack of significant hard X-ray emission). The gradual phase is associated with the cooling of hot plasma that has been evaporated into the corona. The observed footpoint emission is again powered by thermal conduction (and enthalpy), but now during a period when approximate steady-state conditions are established in the loop. UV and EUV light curves of individual pixels may therefore be separated into contributions from two distinct physical mechanisms to shed light on the nature of energy transport in a flare.We demonstrate this technique using coordinated, spatially resolved observations of UV and EUV emissions from the footpoints of a C3.2 thermal flare.

Flares↗

Hourly PM 2.5 Estimates across California from 2018 to 2023

This study presents a new data set of hourly PM 2.5 concentrations across California from 2018 to 2023 at a three-kilometer resolution. This data set was developed by assimilating observations from PurpleAir and the U.S. EPA Air Quality System monitors into wildfire smoke forecasts from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Smoke (HRRR-Smoke) model using the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional variational data assimilation framework. Archived forecasts of modeled wildfire smoke PM 2.5 from HRRR-Smoke create the background field for assimilation, which is then corrected using surface observations of total PM 2.5 . The resulting reanalysis from GSI provides an estimate of total PM 2.5 that minimizes error from both the observational and the model data. Validation results indicate strong performance, with monthly R 2 values ranging from 0.73 to 0.91 across the six-year data set, comparable to other PM 2.5 data sets. Case studies are presented for three major fire events, the 2018 Camp Fire, 2019 Kincade Fire, and 2020 Lightning Complex Fires to demonstrate the data set’s fidelity in resolving plume dynamics and local exposure patterns. Root-mean-squared error averaged over each month scales with average PM 2.5 concentrations, resulting in a low error under typical conditions but higher absolute errors during extreme smoke events. This is the first long-term, hourly PM 2.5 data set of its kind for California and enables the generation of subdaily exposure metrics, such as peak hourly concentrations, exceedance durations, and time-of-day exposure peaks. The novelty and strong validation of this data set make it a compelling resource for future studies on the impact and significance of subdaily PM 2.5 exposure.

PM2.5↗

Nonprincipal plane scattering of flat plates and pattern control of horn antennas

Using the geometrical theory of diffraction, the traditional method of high frequency scattering analysis, the prediction of the radar cross section of a perfectly conducting, flat, rectangular plate is limited to principal planes. Part A of this report predicts the radar cross section in nonprincipal planes using the method of equivalent currents. This technique is based on an asymptotic end-point reduction of the surface radiation integrals for an infinite wedge and enables nonprincipal plane prediction. The predicted radar cross sections for both horizontal and vertical polarizations are compared to moment method results and experimental data from Arizona State University's anechoic chamber. In part B, a variational calculus approach to the pattern control of the horn antenna is outlined. The approach starts with the optimization of the aperture field distribution so that the control of the radiation pattern in a range of directions can be realized. A control functional is thus formulated. Next, a spectral analysis method is introduced to solve for the eigenfunctions from the extremal condition of the formulated functional. Solutions to the optimized aperture field distribution are then obtained.

Balanis, Constantine A.↗

Classification of Meteorological Influences Surrounding Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States using the MERRA-2 Reanalysis

Extreme precipitation events can have a large impact on society through flooding that can result in property destruction, crop losses, economic losses, the spread of water-borne diseases, and fatalities. Observations indicate there has been a statistically significant increase in extreme precipitation events over the past 15 years in the Northeastern United States and other localized regions of the country have become crippled with record flooding events, for example, the flooding that occurred in the Southeast United States associated with Hurricane Matthew in October 2016. Extreme precipitation events in the United States can be caused by various meteorological influences such as extratropical cyclones, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective complexes, general air mass thunderstorms, upslope flow, fronts, and the North American Monsoon. Reanalyses, such as the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), have become a pivotal tool to study the meteorology surrounding extreme precipitation events. Using days classified as an extreme precipitation events based on a combination of observational gauge and radar data, two techniques for the classification of these events are used to gather additional information that can be used to determine how events have changed over time using atmospheric data from MERRA-2. The first is self organizing maps, which is an artificial neural network that uses unsupervised learning to cluster like patterns and the second is an automated detection technique that searches for characteristics in the atmosphere that define a meteorological phenomena. For example, the automated detection for tropical cycles searches for a defined area of suppressed sea level pressure, alongside thickness anomalies aloft, indicating the presence of a warm core. These techniques are employed for extreme precipitation events in preselected regions that were chosen based an analysis of the climatology of precipitation.

Monsoon↗

Non-Intrusive Laser-Induced Imaging for Speciation and Patternation in High Pressure Gas Turbine Combustors

The next generation of was turbine combustors for aerospace applications will be required to meet increasingly stringent constraints on fuel efficiency, noise abatement, and emissions. The power plants being designed to meet these constraints will operate at extreme conditions of temperature and pressure, thereby generating unique challenges to the previously employed diagnostic methodologies. Current efforts at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) utilize optically accessible, high pressure flametubes and sector combustor rigs to probe, via advanced nonintrusive laser techniques, the complex flowfields encountered in advanced combustor designs. The fuel-air mixing process is of particular concern for lowering NO(x) emissions generated in lean, premixed engine concepts. Using planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF) we have obtained real-time, detailed imaging of the fuel spray distribution for a number of fuel injector over a wide range of operational conditions that closely match those expected in the proposed propulsion systems. Using a novel combination of planar imaging, of fuel fluorescence and computational analysis that allows an examination of the flowfield from any perspective, we have produced spatially and temporally resolved fuel-air distribution maps. These maps provide detailed insight into the fuel injection at actual conditions never before possible, thereby greatly enhancing the evaluation of fuel injector performance and combustion phenomena.

Locke, Randy J.↗

Evidence of non-isentropic release from high residual temperatures in shocked metals measured with ultrafast x-ray diffraction

Shock experiments are widely used to understand the mechanical and electronic properties of matter under extreme conditions. However, after shock loading to a Hugoniot state, a clear description of the post-shock thermal state and its impacts on materials is still lacking. We used diffraction patterns from 100-fs x-ray pulses to investigate the temperature evolution of laser-shocked Al–Zr metal film composites at time delays ranging from 5 to 75 ns driven by a 120-ps short-pulse laser. We found significant heating of both Al and Zr after shock release, which can be attributed to heat generated by inelastic deformation. A conventional hydrodynamic model that employs (i) typical descriptions of Al and Zr mechanical strength and (ii) elevated strength responses (which might be attributed to an unknown strain rate dependence) did not fully account for the measured temperature increase, which suggests that other strength-related mechanisms (such as fine-scale void growth) could play an important role in thermal responses under shock wave loading/unloading cycles. Our results suggest that a significant portion of the total shock energy delivered by lasers becomes heat due to defect-facilitated plastic work, leaving less converted to kinetic energy. This heating effect may be common in laser-shocked experiments but has not been well acknowledged. High post-shock temperatures may induce phase transformation of materials during shock release. Another implication for the study is the preservability of magnetic records from planetary surfaces that have a shock history from frequent impact events.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Predictions for partial and monolayer coverages of O2 on graphite

Monolayer properties of O2 on graphite are calculated using a pattern recognition, optimization scheme. Equilibrium monolayers are predicted at two different densities with properties in agreement with recent X-ray diffraction, specific heat, and neutron scattering data. Properties of the extremely low density regime are calculated using a model based upon a distribution of two-dimensional O2 clusters. The results are consistent with experimental evidence.

Pan, R. P.↗

Comparison of SBUV and SAGE II ozone profiles: Implications for ozone trends

Solar backscattered ultraviolet (SBUV) ozone profiles have been compared with Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II profiles over the period October 1984 through June 1990, when data are available from both instruments. SBUV measurements were selected to closely match the SAGE II latitude/longitude measurement pattern. There are significant differences between the SAGE II sunrise and the sunset zonal mean ozone profiles in the equatorial zone, particularly in the upper stratosphere, that may be connected with extreme SAGE II solar azimuth angles for tropical sunrise measurements. Calculation of the average sunset bias between SBUV and SAGE II ozone profiles shows that allowing for diurnal variation in Umkehr layer 10, SBUV and SAGE II agree to within +/- 5% for the entire stratosphere in the northern midlatitude zone. The worst agreement is seen at southern midlatitudes near the ozone peak (disagreements of +/- 10%), apparently the result of the SBUV ozone profile peaking at a lower altitude than SAGE. The integrated ozone columns (cumulative above 15 km) agree very well, to within +/- 2.3% in all zones for both sunset and sunrise measurements. A comparison of the time dependence of SBUV and SAGE II shows that there was less than +/- 5% relative drift over the 5.5 years for all altitudes except below 25 km, where the SBUV vertical resolution is poor. The best agreement with SAGE is seen in the integrated column ozone (cumulative above 15 km), where SAGE II has a 1% negative trend relative to SBUV over the comparison period. There is a persistent disagreement of the two instruments in Umkehr layers 9 and 10 of +/- 4% over the 5.5-year comparison period. In the equatorial zone this disagreement may be caused in part by a large positive trend (0.8 K per year) in the National Meteorologica Center temperatures used to convert the SAGE II measurement of ozone density versus altitude to a pressure scale for comparison with SBUV. In the middle stratosphere (30-40 km), SBUV shows a 2-4% negative drift relative to SAGE II. If the actual ozone trends are considered, SBUV and SAGE II agree in showing little ozone change (less than 2%) between 1984 and 1990, except in layer 3 where SAGE II measures a large ozone decrease. But over 11 years, SBUV measured a 7% per decade ozone decrease between 40 and 50 km, decreasing in magnitude at lower altitudes, in good agreement with 11-year trends derived from the average of 5 Umkehr stations.

Mcpeters, R. D.↗

Program Instrumentation and Trace Analysis

Several attempts have been made recently to apply techniques such as model checking and theorem proving to the analysis of programs. This shall be seen as a current trend to analyze real software systems instead of just their designs. This includes our own effort to develop a model checker for Java, the Java PathFinder 1, one of the very first of its kind in 1998. However, model checking cannot handle very large programs without some kind of abstraction of the program. This paper describes a complementary scalable technique to handle such large programs. Our interest is turned on the observation part of the equation: How much information can be extracted about a program from observing a single execution trace? It is our intention to develop a technology that can be applied automatically and to large full-size applications, with minimal modification to the code. We present a tool, Java PathExplorer (JPaX), for exploring execution traces of Java programs. The tool prioritizes scalability for completeness, and is directed towards detecting errors in programs, not to prove correctness. One core element in JPaX is an instrumentation package that allows to instrument Java byte code files to log various events when executed. The instrumentation is driven by a user provided script that specifies what information to log. Examples of instructions that such a script can contain are: 'report name and arguments of all called methods defined in class C, together with a timestamp'; 'report all updates to all variables'; and 'report all acquisitions and releases of locks'. In more complex instructions one can specify that certain expressions should be evaluated and even that certain code should be executed under various conditions. The instrumentation package can hence be seen as implementing Aspect Oriented Programming for Java in the sense that one can add functionality to a Java program without explicitly changing the code of the original program, but one rather writes an aspect and compiles it into the original program using the instrumentation. Another core element of JPaX is an observation package that supports the analysis of the generated event stream. Two kinds of analysis are currently supported. In temporal analysis the execution trace is evaluated against formulae written in temporal logic. We have implemented a temporal logic evaluator on finite traces using the Maude rewriting system from SRI International, USA. Temporal logic is defined in Maude by giving its syntax as a signature and its semantics as rewrite equations. The resulting semantics is extremely efficient and can handle event streams of hundreds of millions events in few minutes. Furthermore, the implementation is very succinct. The second form of even stream analysis supported is error pattern analysis where an execution trace is analyzed using various error detection algorithms that can identify error-prone programming practices that may potentially lead to errors in some different executions. Two such algorithms focusing on concurrency errors have been implemented in JPaX, one for deadlocks and the other for data races. It is important to note, that a deadlock or data race potential does not need to occur in order for its potential to be detected with these algorithms. This is what makes them very scalable in practice. The data race algorithm implemented is the Eraser algorithm from Compaq, however adopted to Java. The tool is currently being applied to a code base for controlling a spacecraft by the developers of that software in order to evaluate its applicability.

Havelund, Klaus↗

QuakeSim and the Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory

We are developing simulation and analysis tools in order to develop a solid Earth science framework for understanding and studying active tectonic and earthquake processes. The goal of QuakeSim and its extension, the Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory (SERVO), is to study the physics of earthquakes using state-of-the-art modeling, data manipulation, and pattern recognition technologies. We are developing clearly defined accessible data formats and code protocols as inputs to simulations, which are adapted to high-performance computers. The solid Earth system is extremely complex and nonlinear resulting in computationally intensive problems with millions of unknowns. With these tools it will be possible to construct the more complex models and simulations necessary to develop hazard assessment systems critical for reducing future losses from major earthquakes. We are using Web (Grid) service technology to demonstrate the assimilation of multiple distributed data sources (a typical data grid problem) into a major parallel high-performance computing earthquake forecasting code. Such a linkage of Geoinformatics with Geocomplexity demonstrates the value of the Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory (SERVO) Grid concept, and advances Grid technology by building the first real-time large-scale data assimilation grid.

virtual observatory↗