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NASA NTRS2018

Assessment of the Mars Helicopter Thermal Design Sensitivities Using the Veritrek Software

The Mars Helicopter will be a technology demonstration conducted during the Mars 2020 mission. The primary mission objective is to achieve several 90-second flights and capture visible light images via forward and nadir mounted cameras. These flights could possibly provide reconnaissance data for sampling site selection for other Mars surface missions. The helicopter is powered by a solar array, which stores energy in secondary batteries for flight operations, imaging, communications, and survival heating. The helicopter thermal design is driven by minimizing survival heater energy while maintaining compliance with allowable flight temperatures in a variable thermal environment. Due to the small size of the helicopter and its complex geometries, along with the fact that it operates with very low power and small margins, additional care had to be paid while planning thermal tests and designing the thermal system. A Thermal Desktop® model has been developed to predict the thermal system’s performance. A reduced-order model (ROM) created with the Veritrek software has been utilized to explore the sensitivities of the thermal system’s drivers, such as electronics dissipations, gas gaps, heat transfer coefficients, etc., as well as to assess and verify the final thermal design. This paper presents the performance of the Veritrek software products and the details of the ROM creation process. The results produced by Veritrek were utilized to study the effect of the major thermal design drivers and Mars environment on the Mars Helicopter in as little as 10 days, an effort that would have taken over 4 months using traditional thermal analysis techniques.

Hengeveld, Derek W.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Comparative Soot Diagnostics Experiment Looks at the Smoky World of Microgravity Combustion

From an economic standpoint, soot is one of the most important combustion intermediates and products. It is a major industrial product and is the dominant medium for radiant heat transport in most flames used to generate heat and power. The nonbuoyant structure of most flames of practical interest (turbulent flames) makes the understanding of soot processes in microgravity flames important to our ability to predict fire behavior on Earth. In addition, fires in spacecraft are considered a credible possibility. To respond to this risk, NASA has flown fire (or smoke) detectors on Skylab and the space shuttles and included them in the International Space Station design. The design of these detectors, however, was based entirely on normal gravity (1g) data. The detector used in the shuttle fleet is an ionization detector, whereas the system planned for the space station uses forward scattering of near-infrared light. The ionization detector, which is similar to smoke detectors used in homes, has a comparative advantage for submicron particulates. In fact, the space shuttle model uses a separation system that makes it blind to particles larger than a micron (believed to be dust). In the larger size range, the lightscattering detector is most sensitive. Without microgravity smoke data, the difference in the particle size sensitivities of the two detectors cannot be evaluated. As part of the Comparative Soot Diagnostics (CSD) experiment, these systems were tested to determine their response to particulates generated during long periods of low gravity. This experiment provided the first such measurements toward understanding soot processes on Earth and for designing and implementing improved spacecraft smoke detection systems. The objectives of CSD were to examine how particulates form from a variety of sources and to quantify the performance of several diagnostic techniques. The sources tested included four overheated materials (paper, silicone rubber, Teflon-coated (DuPont) wire, and Kapton-coated (DuPont) wires), each tested at three heating rates, and a candle tested at three air velocities. Paper, silicone rubber, and wire insulation, materials found in spacecraft crew cabins, were selected because of their different smoke properties. The candle yielded hydrocarbon soot typical of many 1g flames. Four diagnostic techniques were employed: thermophoretic sampling collected particulates for size analysis; laser light extinction measurements near the source tallied total particulate production; and laser light scattering and ionization detector measurements far from the particulate source provided data for evaluating the performance of smoke detection systems for these particulate sources.

Urban, David L.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Evaluating Multispectral Snowpack Reflectivity With Changing Snow Correlation Lengths

This study investigates the sensitivity of multispectral reflectivity to changing snow correlation lengths. Matzler's ice-lamellae radiative transfer model was implemented and tested to evaluate the reflectivity of snow correlation lengths at multiple frequencies from the ultraviolet (UV) to the microwave bands. The model reveals that, in the UV to infrared (IR) frequency range, the reflectivity and correlation length are inversely related, whereas reflectivity increases with snow correlation length in the microwave frequency range. The model further shows that the reflectivity behavior can be mainly attributed to scattering rather than absorption for shallow snowpacks. The largest scattering coefficients and reflectivity occur at very small correlation lengths (approximately 10(exp -5 m) for frequencies higher than the IR band. In the microwave range, the largest scattering coefficients are found at millimeter wavelengths. For validation purposes, the ice-lamella model is coupled with a multilayer snow physics model to characterize the reflectivity response of realistic snow hydrological processes. The evolution of the coupled model simulated reflectivities in both the visible and the microwave bands is consistent with satellite-based reflectivity observations in the same frequencies. The model results are also compared with colocated in situ snow correlation length measurements (Cold Land Processes Field Experiment 2002-2003). The analysis and evaluation of model results indicate that the coupled multifrequency radiative transfer and snow hydrology modeling system can be used as a forward operator in a data-assimilation framework to predict the status of snow physical properties, including snow correlation length.

Kang, Do Hyuk↗

DOE OSTI2021

Redefining Resource Adequacy for Modern Power Systems: A Report of the Redefining Resource Adequacy Task Force

Today's rapidly increasing levels of wind, solar, storage, and load flexibility require the industry to rethink reliability planning and resource adequacy methods for modern power systems. Periods with a risk of shortfall often no longer coincide with peak demand - reliability risks are less about peak load and more about the daily setting of the sun, extended cloud cover, wind speeds, cold snaps, and heat waves. In addition, demand is increasingly flexible. Key resources are time-sensitive, as batteries need time to recharge and electricity customers can only be asked to provide demand response for just so long. And reliability failures are often correlated - with one another and with the weather. Two driving factors require the industry to reconsider its analytical approach for resource adequacy: (1) Chronological grid operations: The increasing importance of variable renewable resources (such as wind and solar) and of energy-limited resources (storage and demand response) make it essential to understand the full year of chronological operation of the grid. Specific attention must be paid to hourly, seasonal, and inter-annual resource variability. The sequence of the variability is key, as energy-limited resources such as batteries or demand response require either a preceding period or subsequent period of high production to be useful for grid reliability. (2) Correlated events: Historically, resource adequacy analysis focused on shortfalls caused by random, discrete mechanical failures of large generating units. In contrast, shortfalls today are often caused by multiple, correlated events caused by common weather patterns. Resource adequacy analysis must increasingly shift its focus to these correlated events. The redesign of resource adequacy methods will benefit from a set of guiding principles to better allow for sharing of insights and best practices, interregional resource coordination, and a smoother regulatory process for resource procurement. The objective of this report is to move this redesign forward. It provides an overview of key drivers changing the way resource adequacy needs to be evaluated, identifies shortcomings of conventional approaches, and outlines first principles for practitioners to consider as they adapt their approaches. The central message is: what got us here won't get us there.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2001

Comparison of ER-2 Aircraft and POAM-III, MLS, and SAGE-II Satellite Measurements During SOLVE Using Traditional Correlative Analysis and Trajectory Hunting Technique

We compared the version 5 Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS), version 3 Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement-III (POAM-111) aboard the French satellite SPOT-IV, version 6.0 Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment 11 (SAGE-II) aboard the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite, and NASA ER-2 aircraft measurements made in the northern hemisphere in January-February 2000 during the SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE). This study addresses one of the key scientific objectives of the SOLVE campaign, namely, to validate multi-platform satellite measurements made in the polar stratosphere during winter. This intercomparison was performed using a traditional correlative analysis (TCA) and a trajectory hunting technique (THT). Launching backward and forward trajectories from the points of measurement, the THT identifies air parcels sampled at least twice within a prescribed match criterion during the course of 5 days. We found that the ozone measurements made by these four instruments agree most of the time within 110% in the stratosphere up to 1400 K (approximately 35 km). The water vapor measurements from POAM-III and the ER-2 Harvard Lyman-alpha hygrometer and JPL laser hygrometer agree to within 10.5 ppmv (or about +/-10%) in the lower stratosphere above 380 K. The MLS and ER-2 ClO measurements agree within their error bars for the TCA. The MLS and ER-2 nitric acid measurements near 17-20 km altitude agree within their uncertainties most of the time with a hint of a positive offset by MLS according to the TCA. We also applied the AER box model constrained by the ER-2 measurements for analysis of the ClO and HN03 measurements using the THT. We found that: (1) the model values of ClO are smaller by about 0.3-0.4 (0.2) ppbv below (above) 400 K than those by MLS and (2) the HN03 comparison shows a positive offset of MLS values by approximately 1 and 1-2 ppbv below 400 K and near 450 K, respectively. It is hard to quantify the HN03 offset in the 400-440 K range because of the high sensitivity of nitric acid to the PSC schemes. Our study shows that, with some limitations (like HN03 comparison under PSC conditions), the THT is a more powerful tool for validation studies than the TCA, making conclusions of the comparison statistically more robust.

Danilin, M. Y.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Reconstructing Masses of Merging Neutron Stars from Stellar r -process Abundance Signatures

We report that neutron star mergers (NSMs) are promising astrophysical sites for the rapid neutron-capture ("r") process, but can their integrated yields explain the majority of heavy-element material in the Galaxy? One method to address this question implements a forward approach that propagates NSM rates and yields along with stellar formation rates and compares those results with observed chemical abundances of r-process-rich, metal-poor stars. In this work, we take the inverse approach by utilizing r-process-element abundance ratios of metal-poor stars as input to reconstruct the properties -especially the masses - of their neutron star (NS) binary progenitors. This novel analysis provides an independent avenue for studying the population of the original NS binary systems that merged and produced the r-process material now incorporated in Galactic metal-poor halo stars. We use ratios of elements typically associated with the limited-r-process and the actinide region to those in the lanthanide region (i.e., Zr/Dy and Th/Dy) to probe the NS masses of the progenitor merger. We find that NSMs can account for all r-process material in metal-poor stars that display r-process signatures, while simultaneously reproducing the present-day distribution of double-NS systems. Notably, with our model assumptions and the studied stellar sample, we postulate that the most r-process enhanced stars (the r–II stars) on their own would require progenitor NSMs of asymmetric systems that are distinctly different from present ones in the Galaxy. We also explore variations to the model and find that the predicted degree of asymmetry is most sensitive to the electron fraction of the remnant disk wind.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2004

An aerobot for global in situ exploration of Titan

This paper describes the design and component testing of an aerobot that would be capable of global in situ exploration of Saturn's moon, Titan, over a 6 to 12 month mission lifetime. The proposed aerobot is a propeller-driven, buoyant vehicle that resembles terrestrial airships. However, the extremely cold Titan environment requires the use of cryogenic materials of construction and careful thermal design for protection of temperature-sensitive payload elements. Multiple candidate balloon materials have been identified based on extensive laboratory testing at 77 K. The most promising materials to date are laminates comprised of polyester fabrics and/or films with areal densities in the range of 40-100 g/m2. The aerobot hull is a streamlined ellipsoid 14 meters in length with a maximum diameter of 3 meters. The enclosed volume of 60 m3 is sufficient to float a mass of 234 kg at a maximum altitude of 8 km at Titan. Forward and aft ballonets are located inside the hull to enable the aerobot to descend to the surface while preserving a fully inflated streamlined shape. Altitude changes are effected primarily through thrust vectoring of the twin main propellers, with pressure modulated buoyancy change via the ballonets available as a slower backup option. A total of 100 W of electrical power is provided to the vehicle by a radioisotope power supply. Up to half of this power is available to the propulsion system to generate a top flight speed in the range of 1-2 m/s. This speed is expected to be greater than the near surface winds at Titan, enabling the aerobot to fly to and hover over targets of interest. A preliminary science payload has been devised for the aerobot to give it the capability for aerial imaging of the surface, atmospheric observations and sampling, and surface sample acquisition and analysis. Targeting, hovering, surface sample acquisition and vehicle health monitoring and automatic safing actions will all require significant on-board autonomy due to the over two hour round trip light time between Titan and Earth. An autonomy architecture and a core set of perception, reasoning and control technologies is under development using a free-flying airship testbed of approximately the same size as the proposed Titan aerobot. Data volume from the Titan science mission is expected to be on the order of 100-300 Mbit per day transmitted either direct to Earth through an 0.8 m high gain antenna or via an orbiter relay using an omni-directional antenna on the aerobot.

mobility↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cruise Slotted Wing Design with Natural Laminar Flow for Transonic Commercial Transport Aircraft

The present computational study investigates the aerodynamic design and analysis of cruise slotted wings with natural laminar flow for transonic transport aircraft. The cruise slotted wing is a multielement wing concept that features an intermediate slot to achieve greater aft loading relative to supercritical wings for the potential benefit of reduced shock strength and pressure drag. Transonic near-cruise, off-design assessments have also shown improved drag rise characteristics due to the ability of the slot to mitigate boundary layer separation on the aft flap component. However, due to the decreased Reynolds number of the flap, the cruise slotted wing has historically incurred a skin-friction drag penalty relative to a conventional supercritical wing. To offset this penalty, a cruise slotted wing with the forward main element and aft flap element shaped to achieve natural laminar flow is desired. Toward this effort, a knowledge-based aerodynamic design method, CDISC, has been leveraged to design a partial-span cruise slotted wing with natural laminar flow for a Mach-0.8 variant of the Common Research Model. Drag comparisons will be provided at cruise and near-cruise, off-design conditions relative to both fully turbulent and natural laminar flow conventional wing designs. It is anticipated that pairing natural laminar flow technology with the cruise slotted wing architecture will allow for cruise drag performance similar to conventional laminar flow wings with improved drag rise characteristics and more limited laminar-flow sensitivity at off-design conditions. Preliminary results for a cruise slotted wing with laminar flow on the outboard wing section only have shown a 10-ct cruise drag reduction relative to a conventional supercritical wing, but a 8-ct penalty relative to the conventional NLF wing. The final paper will include results for a cruise slotted wing design with laminar flow on both the inboard and outboard wing sections.

CFD↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cruise Slotted Wing Design with Natural Laminar Flow for Transonic Commercial Transport Aircraft

Natural Laminar Flow↗

DOE OSTI2017

Magnetotelluric Detection Thresholds as a Function of Leakage Plume Depth, TDS and Volume

We conducted a synthetic magnetotelluric (MT) data analysis to establish a set of specific thresholds of plume depth, TDS concentration and volume for detection of brine and CO 2 leakage from legacy wells into shallow aquifers in support of Strategic Monitoring Subtask 4.1 of the US DOE National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP Phase II), which is to develop geophysical forward modeling tools. 900 synthetic MT data sets span 9 plume depths, 10 TDS concentrations and 10 plume volumes. The monitoring protocol consisted of 10 MT stations in a 2×5 grid laid out along the flow direction. We model the MT response in the audio frequency range of 1 Hz to 10 kHz with a 50 Ωm baseline resistivity and the maximum depth up to 2000 m. Scatter plots show the MT detection thresholds for a trio of plume depth, TDS concentration and volume. Plumes with a large volume and high TDS located at a shallow depth produce a strong MT signal. We demonstrate that the MT method with surface based sensors can detect a brine and CO 2 plume so long as the plume depth, TDS concentration and volume are above the thresholds. However, it is unlikely to detect a plume at a depth larger than 1000 m with the change of TDS concentration smaller than 10%. Simulated aquifer impact data based on the Kimberlina site provides a more realistic view of the leakage plume distribution than rectangular synthetic plumes in this sensitivity study, and it will be used to estimate MT responses over simulated brine and CO 2 plumes and to evaluate the leakage detectability. Integration of the simulated aquifer impact data and the MT method into the NRAP DREAM tool may provide an optimized MT survey configuration for MT data collection. This study presents a viable approach for sensitivity study of geophysical monitoring methods for leakage detection. The results come in handy for rapid assessment of leakage detectability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

A Multi-frequency analysis of dark matter annihilation interpretations of recent anti-particle and γ-ray excesses in cosmic structures

The Fermi-LAT observation of a γ-ray excess from the galactic-centre, as well as the PAMELA, AMS, and AMS-2 anti-particle excesses, and the recent indications of a Fermi-LAT γ-ray excess in the Reticulum II dwarf galaxy have all been variously put forward as possible indirect signatures of supersymmetric neutralino dark matter. These are of particular interest as the neutralino annihilation models which fit these observations must have observable consequences across the frequency spectrum, from radio to γ-ray emission. Moreover, since dark matter is expected to be a major constituent of cosmic structure, these multi-frequency consequences should be common to such structures across the mass spectrum, from dwarf galaxies to galaxy clusters. Thus, in this work we make predictions for the multi-frequency spectra of three well-known sources dominated by dark matter on cluster, galaxy and dwarf galaxy scales, e.g. the Coma cluster, the galaxy M81, and the Draco dwarf galaxy, using models favoured by dark matter interpretations of the aforementioned observations. We pay special attention to the consequences for these models when their cross-sections are renormalised to reproduce the recent γ-ray excess observed in the Reticulum II dwarf galaxy, as well as using cross-sections from the Fermi-LAT dwarf galaxy limits, which throw a dark matter interpretation of this excess into doubt. We find that the multi-frequency data of Coma and Draco are in conflict with the dark matter interpretation of the AMS, PAMELA and Fermi positron excess. Additionally, models derived from Fermi-LAT galactic centre observations, and AMS-2 re-analysis, present similar but less extensive conflicts. Using the sensitivity projections for the Square Kilometre Array, the Cherenkov Telescope Array, as well as the ASTROGAM and ASTRO-H satellites, we determine the detection prospects for a subset of neutralino models that remain consistent with Planck cosmological constraints. Although the SKA has the greatest sensitivity to dark matter models, we demonstrate that ASTRO-H is well positioned to probe the inverse-Compton scattering emissions from neutralino annihilation and identify characteristics of the spectra which contain information about the neutralino mass and annihilation channel. This means that, given environments with favourable X-ray backgrounds, multi-frequency observation with the next generation of experiments will allow for unprecedented sensitivity to the neutralino parameter space as well as offsetting the individual weaknesses of each observation mode. Finally we show that all of the studied models can be better tested with the SKA phase 1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2013

Analysis of Benefits of an Energy Imbalance Market in the NWPP

The Northwest Power Pool (NWPP) Market Assessment Committee (MC) Initiative, which was officially launched on March 19, 2012, set out to explore a range of alternatives that could help the Balancing Authorities and scheduling utilities in the NWPP area address growing operational and commercial challenges affecting the regional power system. The MC formed an Analytical Team with technical representatives from each of the member Balancing Areas in the NWPP and with staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). This Analytical Team was instructed to conduct extensive studies of intra-hour operation of the NWPP system in the year 2020 and of the NWPP region with 14,671 MW of wind penetration. The effort utilized a sub-hourly production cost model (the PLEXOS® computer model) that inputs data from the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC)-wide Production Cost Model (PCM) to evaluate potential production cost savings. The Analytical Team was given two general options to evaluate: •Energy Imbalance Market (EIM): establishment of an automated, organized NWPP area market for economically supplying energy imbalance within the hour. •Enhanced Market-Operational Tools (EMT) that might augment or replace an EIM. The Analytical The Analytical Team built on the WECC-wide PCM data from prior work done in the WECC and carried forward the evolution of the original WECC Transmission Expansion Planning Policy Committee (TEPPC) 2020 PC0 data base. A large number of modifications and improvements were made to this case and the data were subjected to extensive review by the team members to improve the model representation of the Northwest (NW). MC meetings that were open to the public were held for interested parties to review and provide input to the study. Results for the test, base, and sensitivity case studies performed by the MC Initiative Analytical Team indicate that there are a wide range of benefits that could be obtained from the operation of an EIM in the NWPP depending on what assumptions are made. The instructions from the MC were to determine a "minimum high confidence" range of potential benefits. The results for the Base Case indicate that the EIM benefits ranged from approximately $40 million to $70 million in annual savings from the operation of an EIM in the NWPP footprint. A number of additional relevant sensitivity cases were performed, including low and high water conditions, low and high natural gas prices, and various flex reserve requirements, resource operations, and amounts of resource capability held back during the preschedule period. Along with the results for the Base Case, the results for these studies yielded EIM benefits that clustered within the range of $70 to $80 million dollars per year with potential benefits ranging from approximately $125 million to as little as $17 million per year. Because the design and operation of an EIM could enable participating Balancing Authorities (BAs) to collectively lower the quantity of resources they must carry to meet within-hour balancing needs, a sensitivity case was also performed to analyze the impact that such reductions might have on the benefits from an EIM. The results for this sensitivity case indicate that such reductions could increase the benefits from the operation of an EIM in the NWPP into the range of approximately $130 million to $160 million per year. Also, a sensitivity case for a WECC-wide EIM was performed with the results indicating that the potential benefits to the NWPP could increase into the range of $197 million to $233 million per year. While there may be potential reliability benefits from the coordinated dispatch process underlying the operation of an EIM, reliability benefits from an EIM were out of the scope of this study. The EIM benefit analyses that were performed by the Analytical Team are provided in this report.

Power markets, NWPP, Energy Imbalance, EIM, Renewa↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-T-275: A Correlation Study On 3D Fluence-Based QA and 2D Dose Measurement-Based QA

Purpose: The aim of this paper was to demonstrate the feasibility and creditability of computing and verifying 3D fluencies to assure IMRT and VMAT treatment deliveries, by correlating the passing rates of the 3D fluence-based QA (P(ά)) to the passing rates of 2D dose measurementbased QA (P(Dm)). Methods: 3D volumetric primary fluencies are calculated by forward-projecting the beam apertures and modulated by beam MU values at all gantry angles. We first introduce simulated machine parameter errors (MU, MLC positions, jaw, gantry and collimator) to the plan. Using passing rates of voxel intensity differences (P(Ir)) and 3D gamma analysis (P(γ)), calculated 3D fluencies, calculated 3D delivered dose, and measured 2D planar dose in phantom from the original plan are then compared with those from corresponding plans with errors, respectively. The correlations of these three groups of resultant passing rates, i.e. 3D fluence-based QA (P(ά,Ir) and P(ά,γ)), calculated 3D dose (P(Dc,Ir) and P(Dc,γ)), and 2D dose measurement-based QA (P(Dm,Ir) and P(Dm,γ)), will be investigated. Results: 20 treatment plans with 5 different types of errors were tested. Spearman’s correlations were found between P(ά,Ir) and P(Dc,Ir), and also between P(ά,γ) and P(Dc,γ), with averaged p-value 0.037, 0.065, and averaged correlation coefficient ρ-value 0.942, 0.871 respectively. Using Matrixx QA for IMRT plans, Spearman’s correlations were also obtained between P(ά,Ir) and P(Dm,Ir) and also between P(ά,γ) and P(Dm,γ), with p-value being 0.048, 0.071 and ρ-value being 0.897, 0.779 respectively. Conclusion: The demonstrated correlations improve the creditability of using 3D fluence-based QA for assuring treatment deliveries for IMRT/VMAT plans. Together with advantages of high detection sensitivity and better visualization of machine parameter errors, this study further demonstrates the accuracy and feasibility of 3D fluence based-QA in pre-treatment QA and daily QA. Research reported in this study is supported by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) under award 1R01HS0222888. The senior author received research grants from ViewRay Inc. and Varian Medical System.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

NDT System for Metal Components in Concrete Structures (Final Report)

Steel reinforcements embedded within concrete can corrode and crack, leading to weakening of the structures, and existing NDT (non-destructive testing) techniques do not provide the full picture. Condition assessment is critical in evaluating these structures in order to ensure safe, long-term operation of the nuclear power plants. Improved NDT techniques are needed as the nation’s generating stations age and require action based on increasingly critical inspection data. The power industry uses eddy current test (ECT) during in-service inspections to detect and monitor defects such as cracks and corrosion in metals, particularly metal pipes. However, the detection of defects in the reinforcing steel embedded in concrete is far more challenging for numerous reasons. Primary among them is the concrete layer’s thickness, which prevents the ability to have a close proximity between sensor and metallic sample. One solution to this problem is to create a higher sensitivity technique which can inspect at depth, with good spatial resolution and excellent directional sensitivity, to isolate the metal buried deep in the concrete and characterize defects in the metal. The goal of the phase II research program was to study and develop a new reinforced concrete NDT technology based on anisotropic magnetoresistive (AMR) sensors designed specifically for ECT of steel reinforcements in concrete. The first technical objective was to demonstrate the capability of inspecting steel reinforcement structures, including metal rebar and tensioning cable at or below 6” of depth embedded in concrete. Another objective was to be able to confidently identify multiple layers of reinforcements at varying depths. In addition, the technique needed to be able to provide condition assessment of the metal, providing data on the structure and positioning of the steel members, material loss, and detection of the presence of breaks. An important part of the research and development was aimed at achieving superior performance compared to existing technology. The ability to detect corrosion breaks in unbonded multi-wire and multi-strand tendons was another important objective. The final objective that led to a successful program was to build a complete prototype portable scanning system capable of demonstrating the probe performance in the field. All of these objectives were met, which provided data for the system development work going forward. RMD worked with the engineering firm Simpson Gumpertz & Heger to develop a detailed problem definition for concrete structures and the necessary sensor specifications. In addition, we developed finite element simulation models for the eddy current based NDT system through the analysis of the electromagnetic (EM) properties of sample materials and the orientation of the transmitter, sensor array (receivers), metal, and intervening materials like concrete and air. Based on the modeling and specifications, we designed and fabricated prototype sensor modules. We then acquired and fabricated test samples to characterize and optimize the sensors. Finally, we built a complete prototype for testing on actual concrete structures. This new NDT technology has high promise for greatly improving capabilities in the inspection of steel reinforcements within concrete structures, such as rebar, liners, anchors, and prestressing cables. This method could be valuable in the maintenance of nuclear power plants, and many other structures critical to our nation’s infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Refining a Novel Process Monitoring Method to Safeguard Continuously Cycling Designs Using Isotopic Ratios

In advanced reactor (AR) designs, a common feature is continuous chemical processing and circulation of the nuclear material. This work bridges a significant measurement gap in safeguarding reactors with circulating fuel or continuous refueling by leveraging and building on the isotope ratio method first developed by our team under an FY21 Advanced Reactors International Safeguards Engagement (ARISE) project (Uribe et al. 2021). In circulating fuel designs, the radioisotope inventory changes from traditional effects (e.g., radioactive decay, fission) but also includes material transport due to pressure and temperature gradients. Such designs may also require regular or continuous additions or removals during operation, which significantly increases the rate of inventory change compared to traditional pressurized water reactor (PWR)s. Thus, directly tracking the nuclear inventory is ineffective since the isotopes are continuously added and removed. The isotope ratio method instead focuses on detecting changes to the input and output flows of radioisotopes. Previous work showed that for well-chosen pairs of isotopes, the isotopic ratio provides a sensitive and lasting indicator of deviation from normal conditions (e.g., startup, shutdown, diversion). The isotope ratio method is a process monitoring method with potential for application in for forward-looking approaches to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards. The original process monitoring method was developed for a specific case—the decay tank of a thorium-fueled molten salt breeder reactor. In this expanded work, we explored other types of reactors and processes with nonstationary (e.g., flowing) nuclear material, which are difficult to safeguard with traditional methods because of the transient nature of the systems. The goal of the present work is to generalize the isotope ratio method for use in processes with continuously flowing nuclear material. All continuous processes have an average time for isotopes to be replaced in the system. The isotope ratio method works by choosing radioisotopes with half-lives both above and below the processing time. The present work seeks to explore which isotopes are suitable for the method by simulating the nuclear inventory, radioisotope emissions, and detector responses for several classes of advanced reactors. While the method can in principle be applied to other processes (e.g., enrichment or reprocessing facilities), the present work limits scope to ARs with continuously flowing fuel. Section 2 details the mathematics supporting the isotope ratio method, and Section 3 introduces the representative ARs selected for this work. Section 4 discusses how each reactor was analyzed, and Section 5 showcases the results for each representative reactor. Finally, Section 6 provides concluding remarks and suggests pathways for further analysis.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2014

Support Vector Machine-Based Prediction of Local Tumor Control After Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for Early-Stage Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Background: Several prognostic factors for local tumor control probability (TCP) after stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) for early stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) have been described, but no attempts have been undertaken to explore whether a nonlinear combination of potential factors might synergistically improve the prediction of local control. Methods and Materials: We investigated a support vector machine (SVM) for predicting TCP in a cohort of 399 patients treated at 13 German and Austrian institutions. Among 7 potential input features for the SVM we selected those most important on the basis of forward feature selection, thereby evaluating classifier performance by using 10-fold cross-validation and computing the area under the ROC curve (AUC). The final SVM classifier was built by repeating the feature selection 10 times with different splitting of the data for cross-validation and finally choosing only those features that were selected at least 5 out of 10 times. It was compared with a multivariate logistic model that was built by forward feature selection. Results: Local failure occurred in 12% of patients. Biologically effective dose (BED) at the isocenter (BED{sub ISO}) was the strongest predictor of TCP in the logistic model and also the most frequently selected input feature for the SVM. A bivariate logistic function of BED{sub ISO} and the pulmonary function indicator forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) yielded the best description of the data but resulted in a significantly smaller AUC than the final SVM classifier with the input features BED{sub ISO}, age, baseline Karnofsky index, and FEV1 (0.696 ± 0.040 vs 0.789 ± 0.001, P<.03). The final SVM resulted in sensitivity and specificity of 67.0% ± 0.5% and 78.7% ± 0.3%, respectively. Conclusions: These results confirm that machine learning techniques like SVMs can be successfully applied to predict treatment outcome after SBRT. Improvements over traditional TCP modeling are expected through a nonlinear combination of multiple features, eventually helping in the task of personalized treatment planning.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Groundwater Modeling of the RDX Plume at Los Alamos National Laboratory to Support Risk Assessment - 20359

A plume of the contaminant hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) with concentrations greater than the New Mexico tap water drinking standard (9.66 ppb) is present in the regional aquifer near the southwestern boundary of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). A risk assessment is performed for exposure to regional aquifer groundwater, with long-term predictions of RDX concentrations provided by a calibrated, probabilistic, numerical fate and transport model. The structure of the model is hierarchical, with the RDX Regional Aquifer (RA) groundwater model acting as the primary tool for analysis of downgradient RDX concentrations. The RA model is deeply informed by the conceptual site model (CSM) and is calibrated using site RDX concentration data and hydraulic head measurements, along with other analyses. The model is calibrated using data through December 2019. Where data are scarce other lines of evidence are used to inform inputs, including the multiphase RDX Vadose Zone (VZ) model and Pipe and Disk analytical screening tool. Model inputs are described with informative prior distributions using a robust approach to development that incorporates all available lines of evidence for every parameter used as an input to the RA model. Calibration is performed using a classical nonlinear optimization routine, which is then used to initialize a Bayesian calibration. The Bayesian calibration constrains the uncertainty in the classical calibration, ultimately providing posterior distributions for all model parameters. The challenges of the calibration include high-dimensional parameter space, including spatially heterogeneous hydraulic conductivities, comparatively sparse data, and low RDX concentrations. Posterior parameter distributions developed in the calibration process are then used for stochastic predictive model runs into the future. The result of the forward runs is spatially and temporally explicit estimates of head and concentration with uncertainty at all points in space and time. The probabilistic modeling approach presented here includes innovative computational and statistical methods that leverage high-performance computing (HPC) resources. It makes use of prior modeling work performed at the chromium plume site in the central LANL area, with extensive updates. The risk assessment will ultimately be used to support decision-making at the site, using multiple appropriately weighted sources of information, as well as uncertainty, sensitivity, and value-of-information analyses. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2017

Development of Membrane Distillation Technology Utilizing Waste Heat for Treatment of High Salinity Wastewaters

Membrane distillation (MD) can serve as a cost effective method to treat high salinity wastewaters, especially if waste heat is utilized for its operation. The goal of this work is to study the feasibility of employing MD technology for the treatment of high salinity wastewaters which are generated as a result of natural gas production and active reservoir management for CO 2 sequestration. This study also aimed at quantifying the availability of waste heat which could be used as the primary source of thermal energy to drive the MD process. Bench scale studies were carried out with several commercially available membranes using both synthetic and actual high salinity wastewaters. The membranes tested with real wastewater samples exhibited excellent rejection of dissolved ions, including naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM). Long term bench scale experiments with real produced water from the Marcellus shale play revealed that iron oxide could precipitate on the feed side of direct contact MD (DCMD) module but had a negligible effect on the performance of the system. Based on the bench scale experiments, an ASPEN Plus simulation, which incorporated a mathematical model with fundamental heat and mass transfer equations, was developed and used to evaluate the process energy requirements. Despite low operating temperature and pressure for MD, it had a large thermal energy requirement for operation, which could make this technology expensive compared to reverse osmosis (RO) and forward osmosis (FO). However, it is important to note that RO and FO have limited applicability for high salinity shale gas wastewater. Moreover, MD could be integrated with renewable energy sources such as wind or solar energy or industrial waste heat sources to offset the thermal energy requirements and enhance the economics of wastewater treatment. Natural gas compressor stations (NG CS) have been proposed in this study as the source of waste heat based on the estimate of quantity and quality of available waste heat in the exhaust streams of gas turbine and internal combustion compressor engines. Using the actual installed capacity and location of compressor stations in the U.S., this analysis revealed that an average of 610 TJ/day of thermal energy is available at existing NG CS and that this source of waste heat is of high quality with temperatures above 645 K. A systems-level integration of MD with waste heat from NG CS revealed that approximately 56% of available waste heat at NG CS in Pennsylvania is sufficient to concentrate (from 10% to 30% salinity) all wastewater associated with shale gas extraction. Techno-economic assessment (TEA) accounting for capital as well as operating and maintenance costs with and without waste heat integration was conducted for a hypothetical 0.5 million gallons per day (MGD) DCMD plant using experimental and modeling results from this study. TEA revealed that the total cost of shale gas wastewater treatment using MD is $5.7/m 3 feed for the base case scenario in which the thermal energy requirements are met by external steam, however, the total cost can be reduced to $0.74/m 3 feed when integrated with free waste heat from NG CS. Sensitivity analysis revealed that thermal energy cost and feed TDS are the most important factors in total cost of high salinity wastewater treatment using DCMD.

03 NATURAL GAS↗