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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Climate response to off-equatorial stratospheric sulfur injections in three Earth system models – Part 1: Experimental protocols and surface changes

There is now substantial literature on climate model studies of equatorial or tropical stratospheric SO 2 injections that aim to counteract the surface warming produced by rising concentrations of greenhouse gases. Here we present the results from the first systematic intercomparison of climate responses in three Earth system models wherein the injection of SO 2 occurs at different latitudes in the lower stratosphere: CESM2-WACCM6, UKESM1.0 and GISS-E2.1-G. The first two use a modal aerosol microphysics scheme, while two versions of GISS-E2.1-G use a bulk aerosol (One-Moment Aerosol, OMA) and a two-moment (Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state, MATRIX) microphysics approach, respectively. Our aim in this work is to determine commonalities and differences between the climate model responses in terms of the distribution of the optically reflective sulfate aerosols produced from the oxidation of SO 2 and in terms of the surface response to the resulting reduction in solar radiation. A focus on understanding the contribution of characteristics of models transport alongside their microphysical and chemical schemes, and on evaluating the resulting stratospheric responses in different models, is given in the companion paper (Bednarz et al., 2023). The goal of this exercise is not to evaluate these single-point injection simulations as stand-alone proposed strategies to counteract global warming; instead we determine sources and areas of agreement and uncertainty in the simulated responses and, ultimately, the possibility of designing a comprehensive intervention strategy capable of managing multiple simultaneous climate goals through the combination of different injection locations. We find large disagreements between GISS-E2.1-G and the CESM2-WACCM6 and UKESM1.0 models regarding the magnitude of cooling per unit of aerosol optical depth (AOD) produced, which varies from 4.7 K per unit of AOD in CESM2-WACCM6 to 16.7 K in the GISS-E2.1-G version with two-moment aerosol microphysics. By normalizing the results with the global mean response in each of the models and thus assuming that the amount of SO 2 injected is a free parameter that can be managed independently, we highlight some commonalities in the overall distributions of the aerosols, in the inter-hemispheric surface temperature response and in shifts to the Intertropical Convergence Zone, as well as some areas of disagreement, such as the extent of the aerosol confinement in the equatorial region and the efficiency of the transport to polar latitudes. In conclusion, we demonstrate that it is possible to use these simulations to produce more comprehensive injection strategies in multiple climate models. However, large differences in the injection magnitudes can be expected, potentially increasing inter-model spreads in some stratospheric quantities (such as aerosol distribution) while reducing the spread in the surface response in terms of temperature and precipitation; furthermore, the selection of the injection locations may be dependent on the models' specific stratospheric transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Trends and limits of CO 2 capture in solid and liquid sorbents at standard conditions

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) plays a critical role in achieving climate change mitigation targets, offering a pathway to decarbonize power generation, industrial processes, and heat production while addressing atmospheric CO 2 removal. While CCS technologies are technically advanced, the widespread adoption of 100 % CO 2 capture capacities such as 1 mol of CO 2 /mol of material and 1 g CO 2 /g storage (targeted by the DARPA, Defense Sciences Office, USA Govt.) has raised questions about the feasibility of achieving higher capture capacities. In the context of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, reaching 100 % CO 2 capture capacity is increasingly necessary, with residual emissions requiring complementary carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. This review exclusively focuses on the CO 2 capture capacities of various sorbents under standard conditions, using different evaluation metrics. This study explores the performance of solid and liquid sorbents under standard conditions, analyzing factors including surface area, pore structure, solvent type, and functionalization to identify materials optimized for industrial-scale CCS applications. Emerging sorbents, including ILs, MOFs, COFs, POPs, DES, RCC, hybrid materials, and reactive sorbents, offer significant potential for enhanced selectivity and energy-efficient regeneration. Through a systematic assessment of gravimetric, volumetric, and molar capacities, the study provides insights into material efficiencies and trade-offs, offering guidance on optimizing sorbent selection for specific applications. The research advances understanding of scalable CCS technologies, contributing to global efforts to achieve net-zero emissions and address the pressing challenge of climate change.

Absorption↗
DOE OSTI2023

Unique nanotechnology converts carbon dioxide to valuable products

Carbon capture and management are increasing challenges associated with global warming. Current commercial-scale carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture technologies are associated with a heavy economic penalty – they require at least one-third of the plant’s steam and power to operate. The objective of this project was to develop and test an innovative nanotechnology that can utilize CO 2 , from coal-based power systems or other industrial sources, as the primary feedstock to produce commercially valuable products to potentially offset the cost of CO 2 capture. The scope of this project includes conversion of CO 2 to nanomaterials using two unique amino acids in synthetic flue gases and the completion of a process design and techno-economic and lifecycle analyses to demonstrate the economic feasibility and environmental impact of the developed technology. The International Energy Agency predicts that fossil fuels will continue to play a significant role in meeting global energy demand. The goal of the research is to lead to an affordable and transformational CO 2 capture and reuse technology that will reduce the release of CO 2 thereby reducing global climate variability and its enormous impact on our daily lives.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2022

gdess: A framework for evaluating simulated atmospheric CO 2 in Earth System Models

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) plays a key role in the global carbon cycle and global warming. Climate-carbon feedbacks are often studied and estimated using Earth System Models (ESMs), which couple together multiple model components—including the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere, and cryosphere—to jointly simulate mass and energy exchanges within and between these components. Despite tremendous advances, model intercomparisons and benchmarking are aspects of ESMs that warrant further improvement (Fer et al., 2021; Smith et al., 2014). Such benchmarking is critical because comparing the value of state variables in these simulations against observed values provides evidence for appropriately refining model components; moreover, researchers can learn much about Earth system dynamics in the process (Randall et al., 2019). We introduce `gdess` (a.k.a., Greenhouse gas Diagnostics for Earth System Simulations), which parses observational datasets and ESM simulation output, combines them to be in a consistent structure, computes statistical metrics, and generates diagnostic visualizations. In its current incarnation, `gdess` facilitates evaluating a model's ability to reproduce observed temporal and spatial variations of atmospheric CO 2 . The diagnostics implemented modularly in `gdess` support more rapid assessment and improvement of model-simulated global CO 2 sources and sinks associated with land and ocean ecosystem processes. We intend for this set of automated diagnostics to form an extensible, open source framework for future comparisons of simulated and observed concentrations of various greenhouse gases across Earth system models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Atmospheric Transformation of Refrigerants: Current Research Developments and Knowledge Gaps

Refrigerants have evolved through the years to reduce their global warming potential while providing sufficient cooling in refrigeration systems. Replacements for hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are the hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs), which contain reactive double bonds that decrease the atmospheric lifetime of fluorinated compounds. However, the transformation of unsaturated fluorinated compounds in the atmosphere could generate persistent pollutants, particularly trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) which is the simplest Perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids (PFCAs). Understanding the transformation of refrigerants is critical in assessing their contribution to atmospheric levels of TFA and their impact on watersheds and human health. This article will present the reactivity of the refrigerants, atmospheric oxidation source, and sink processes of fluorinated refrigerants under daytime conditions, particularly the variability of TFA from refrigerants. Moreover, the discussion will suggest experimental procedures that can quantify the low concentration (~parts per trillion) of TFA generated from the transformation of HFOs. New state-of-the-art techniques such as chemical ionization mass spectrometers (HR-CIMS) will be assessed in providing high temporal resolution (minutes to hourly) to fully capture the atmospheric sources and variability of TFA. Likewise, local, regional, and global concentrations of TFA accounted from the oxidation of refrigerants will be examined. This will include data from both experimental procedures and simulation models. Participation of TFA in critical atmospheric processes such as new particle formation will also be included in this study. Lastly, overall knowledge gaps related to the oxidation products and their dispersion in the environment will be summarized to guide future research needs.

Salvador, Christian↗
DOE OSTI2021

Coupling plant litter quantity to a novel metric for litter quality explains C storage changes in a thawing permafrost peatland

Abstract Permafrost thaw is a major potential feedback source to climate change as it can drive the increased release of greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ). This carbon release from the decomposition of thawing soil organic material can be mitigated by increased net primary productivity (NPP) caused by warming, increasing atmospheric CO 2 , and plant community transition. However, the net effect on C storage also depends on how these plant community changes alter plant litter quantity, quality, and decomposition rates. Predicting decomposition rates based on litter quality remains challenging, but a promising new way forward is to incorporate measures of the energetic favorability to soil microbes of plant biomass decomposition. We asked how the variation in one such measure, the nominal oxidation state of carbon (NOSC), interacts with changing quantities of plant material inputs to influence the net C balance of a thawing permafrost peatland. We found: (1) Plant productivity (NPP) increased post‐thaw, but instead of contributing to increased standing biomass, it increased plant biomass turnover via increased litter inputs to soil; (2) Plant litter thermodynamic favorability (NOSC) and decomposition rate both increased post‐thaw, despite limited changes in bulk C:N ratios; (3) these increases caused the higher NPP to cycle more rapidly through both plants and soil, contributing to higher CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes from decomposition. Thus, the increased C‐storage expected from higher productivity was limited and the high global warming potential of CH 4 contributed a net positive warming effect. Although post‐thaw peatlands are currently C sinks due to high NPP offsetting high CO 2 release, this status is very sensitive to the plant community's litter input rate and quality. Integration of novel bioavailability metrics based on litter chemistry, including NOSC, into studies of ecosystem dynamics, is needed to improve the understanding of controls on arctic C stocks under continued ecosystem transition.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

The effects of turbulence on the flame structure and NO formation of ammonia turbulent premixed combustion at various equivalence ratios

Ammonia is carbon-free and is regarded as a potential fuel to address global warming issues. Here, in this work, three-dimensional direct numerical simulations (DNS) of ammonia/air turbulent premixed flames were performed to explore the influence of turbulence and equivalence ratio on the flame structure and NO formation characteristics. Two equivalence ratios were considered, i.e. Φ=0.9 and Φ=1.1. The general flame structures were presented and species distributions were examined. The NO mass fraction was found to be the highest in the product for the lean case and in the reaction zone for the rich case. The conditional mean values of species mass fractions and reaction rates were compared with those of the unstrained and strained laminar premixed flames to explore how well the laminar flame structures can approach those of the turbulent flame. The budget analysis of the species transport equations showed that turbulent diffusion plays an important role in species transport. The turbulent diffusivity D T was estimated using the gradient hypothesis based on the DNS data. Various laminar flame simulations with different diffusivities were carried out. It was shown that the conditional means of the DNS agree well with those of the laminar flames including D T in the transport property calculation. The global and local NO formation characteristics were investigated. It was found that the mean NO production conditioned on the progress variable is lower compared with the corresponding laminar flame in the rich case. However, the relative contributions from various NO pathways are rarely affected by turbulence. The NO mass fraction is higher in negative curvature regions compared with positive curvature regions of the flame surface for the rich case, which is due to the preferential diffusion of H 2 and other radicals and the enhanced NO pathways in negatively curved regions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Near-cryogenic direct air capture using adsorbents

Direct air capture (DAC) of CO 2 is a key component in the portfolio of negative emissions technologies for mitigating global warming. However, even with the most potent amine sorbents, large-scale DAC deployment remains limited by high energy and capital costs. Recently, adsorbents relying on weak interactions with CO 2 have emerged as a potential alternative, thanks to their rapid adsorption kinetics and superior long-term stability, particularly under sub-ambient conditions (∼253 K). Despite these advantages, their use is hindered by the need for a water-removal process, location-specific constraints, and insufficient working capacity even in cold climates. In this study, we hypothesized that further reducing the adsorption temperature to a near-cryogenic range (160–220 K) could enable cost-effective DAC by utilizing the full potential of physisorbents. We primarily consider integrating DAC with a relatively untapped source of cold energy—liquified natural gas (LNG) regasification—to perform near-cryogenic DAC. From large-scale molecular simulations, Zeolite 13X and CALF-20 were identified as promising candidates. These materials were subsequently examined through experiments, including breakthrough analyses at 195 K. Their high CO 2 sorption capacity (4.5–5.5 mmol g −1 ), combined with a low desorption enthalpy and robust long-term stability, led to a threefold reduction in the levelized cost of capture (down to 68.2 USD per tonne CO 2 ). Estimates of the global LNG regasification resource suggest that LNG–DAC coupling could potentially enable the capture of 103–142 megatonnes of CO 2 annually as of 2050.

Kim, Seo-Yul [Georgia Institute of Technology, Atl↗
DOE OSTI2021

Role of emission controls in reducing the 2050 climate change penalty for PM2.5 in China

Previous studies demonstrated that global warming can lead to deteriorated air quality even when anthropogenic emissions were kept constant, which has been called a climate change penalty on air quality. It is expected that anthropogenic emissions will decrease significantly in the future considering the aggressive emission control actions in China. However, the dependence of climate change penalty on the choice of emission scenario is still uncertain. To fill this gap, we conducted multiple independent model simulations to investigate the response of PM2.5 to future (2050) climate warming (RCP8.5) in China but with different emission scenarios, including the constant 2015 emissions, the 2050 CLE emissions (based on Current Legislation), and the 2050 MTFR emissions (based on Maximum Technically Feasible Reduction). For each set of emissions, we estimate climate change penalty as the difference in PM2.5 between a pair of simulations with either 2015 or 2050 meteorology. Under 2015 emissions, we find a PM2.5 climate change penalty of 1.43 µg m-3 in Eastern China, leading to an additional 35,000 PM2.5-related premature deaths [95% confidence interval (CI), 21,000-40,000] by 2050. However, the PM2.5 climate change penalty weakens to 0.24 µg m-3 with strict anthropogenic emission controls under the 2050 MTFR emissions, which decreases the associated PM2.5-related deaths to 17,000. The smaller MTFR climate change penalty contributes 14% of the total PM2.5 decrease when both emissions and meteorology are changed from 2015 to 2050, and 24% of total health benefits associated with this PM2.5 decrease in Eastern China. This finding suggests that controlling anthropogenic emissions can effectively reduce the climate change penalty on PM2.5 and its associated premature deaths, even though a climate change penalty still occurs even under MTFR. Strengthened controls on anthropogenic emissions is key to attaining air quality targets and protecting human health in the context of future global climate change.

Liu, Song↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part I: Dynamical Downscaling

Abstract New simulations at 12-km grid spacing with the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) Model nested in the MPI Earth System Model (ESM) are used to quantify possible changes in wind power generation potential as a result of global warming. Annual capacity factors (CF; measures of electrical power production) computed by applying a power curve to hourly wind speeds at wind turbine hub height from this simulation are also used to illustrate the pitfalls in seeking to infer changes in wind power generation directly from low-spatial-resolution and time-averaged ESM output. WRF-derived CF are evaluated using observed daily CF from operating wind farms. The spatial correlation coefficient between modeled and observed mean CF is 0.65, and the root-mean-square error is 5.4 percentage points. Output from the MPI-WRF Model chain also captures some of the seasonal variability and the probability distribution of daily CF at operating wind farms. Projections of mean annual CF (CF A ) indicate no change to 2050 in the southern Great Plains and Northeast. Interannual variability of CF A increases in the Midwest, and CF A declines by up to 2 percentage points in the northern Great Plains. The probability of wind droughts (extended periods with anomalously low production) and wind bonus periods (high production) remains unchanged over most of the eastern United States. The probability of wind bonus periods exhibits some evidence of higher values over the Midwest in the 2040s, whereas the converse is true over the northern Great Plains. Significance Statement Wind energy is playing an increasingly important role in low-carbon-emission electricity generation. It is a “weather dependent” renewable energy source, and thus changes in the global atmosphere may cause changes in regional wind power production (PP) potential. We use PP data from operating wind farms to demonstrate that regional simulations exhibit skill in capturing actual power production. Projections to the middle of this century indicate that over most of North America east of the Rocky Mountains annual expected PP is largely unchanged, as is the probability of extended periods of anomalously high or low production. Any small declines in annual PP are of much smaller magnitude than changes due to technological innovation over the last two decades.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing Development of Emissions Detection (Final Report)

This document is the final report to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE for contract DE-FE0031873) awarded to Colorado State University (CSU). CSU and partners at Harrisburg University of Science and Technology, University of Texas Arlington, and University of Texas at Austin organized several testing rounds to provide knowledge focused on advancing the detection capabilities of emissions monitoring devices. With this funding opportunity the research group began by establishing the Advancing the Development of Emission Detection (ADED) program, with the goal focused on enhancing the accuracy, reliability, and field applicability of methane detection technologies. This effort aimed to address the critical challenges of identifying and quantifying methane emissions while enabling industry stakeholders to meet regulatory compliance and environmental sustainability goals. The program engaged with industry, government, and technology stakeholders to promote adoption and consensus on testing techniques for methane detection solutions. Methane, a potent greenhouse gas, contributes significantly to global warming, and the oil and natural gas (O&G) sector is a primary source of methane emissions. Regulatory measures such as leak detection and repair (LDAR) programs have been implemented to address emissions. However, traditional LDAR approaches, reliant on handheld and component-level measurements, are resource-intensive. To address these limitations and move with evolving regulations, advanced methane technologies are emerging. These solutions include ground-based sensors, mobile systems (e.g., drones, vehicles, and aircraft), and satellite-based platforms. They offer innovative capabilities for autonomous monitoring, larger spatial coverage, and emission quantification using methods such as tracer gas techniques and inverse modeling with Gaussian plume analysis. The ADED program began with creating protocols for methane controlled release (CR) testing these continuous monitoring (CM) and survey technologies that detect and monitor methane emissions at O&G facilities. The protocols were then implemented throughout testing of CM and survey devices at CSU’s Methane Emissions Technology Evaluation Center (METEC) facility from 2021 through 2024. As apart of the protocol, solutions that tested under the ADED program installed their solutions at METEC, documented their system under test, and provided detection reports to the METEC team for analysis. The METEC team would provide the solutions with analyzed reports of their emissions and ground truth data of the releases conducted during their testing session. Under the ADED program, CMs were also tested at O&G facilities for a six week test run of challenge release (ChR) releases. The findings from the ADED program underscore the critical role of collaborative research and innovation in tackling methane emissions, offering a pathway for the oil and gas sector to achieve significant environmental and economic benefits. Results from METEC testing saw improvement of performance and accuracy across all solutions over the extent of the ADED experiments. The results also showed a variance in CM solution performance between CRs and ChRs. That variance pushed the team to further analyze the differences between CR testing environments and field conditions. With the drive from regulations and that variance in field conditions, the ADED team began designing a new CR testing protocol and additions to the METEC testing facility. The METEC team is furthering the progress made through the ADED program with awarded funding from DE-FE0032276. This funding pushes the development of METEC’s addition with new equipment, allowing for an updated facility layout. METEC still facilitates for traditional facilities, with a legacy pad, while expanding an new design based on how O&G infrastructure has Final Report - Contract Number: DE-FE0031873 been changed over the last decade. Throughout the ADED program the team has also been working with international partners to ensure staying in the trend globally. International partners have been essential in moving the new protocol forward to implement into CR testing at the METEC facility in Spring 2025.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios and climate models, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. In this work, we find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Earth's Energy Imbalance More Than Doubled in Recent Decades

Abstract Global warming results from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions which upset the delicate balance between the incoming sunlight, and the reflected and emitted radiation from Earth. The imbalance leads to energy accumulation in the atmosphere, oceans and land, and melting of the cryosphere, resulting in increasing temperatures, rising sea levels, and more extreme weather around the globe. Despite the fundamental role of the energy imbalance in regulating the climate system, as known to humanity for more than two centuries, our capacity to observe it is rapidly deteriorating as satellites are being decommissioned.

Mauritsen, Thorsten [Department of Meteorology and↗
DOE OSTI2023

Technoeconomic assessment of distillation heat transfer intensification using aeroelastically fluttering reeds

Dry cooling, where forced air is the heat transfer medium, is a preferable cooling method in arid locations lacking readily available process water. However, such locations often experience high ambient temperatures that limit the effectiveness of air cooling. The objective of this study is to quantify the economic and energetic benefits of heat transfer intensification via the implementation of aeroelastically fluttering reeds to the air-cooled condenser of a methanol distillation column. Condenser size and performance, regarding recovered methanol and required fan power, is evaluated across condenser operating temperatures (T cond ) from 60 to 62°C and heat transfer coefficients (U) U base –2U base for a range of inlet air temperatures based on ambient temperature data from Yuma, Arizona. Under typical design sizing, condenser capital cost was reduced by 6%–35% (1.3U base –2U base ) and nominal methanol recovery was increased from 0.26% to 0.38% (T cond = 62–60°C). At optimized condenser size, all enhanced U and T cond pairs increase methanol recovery and reduce fan power costs compared to the optimal Ubase reference. Overall, using enhanced heat transfer to maintain condenser temperature under a wider range of inlet conditions, rather than to reduce operation temperature, produces more favorable performance. Methanol price is not a determining factor in which pairs are profitable. Analysis was repeated for a global warming scenario, revealing more valuable improvements under elevated temperatures. Energy savings from condenser improvement to a methanol production system are not significant with respect to an optimized conventional system. Furthermore, unit economic and energetic incentives suggest implementation of fluttering reeds may be justified in other applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Life cycle assessment of the wood pallet repair and remanufacturing sector in the United States

Wood pallets are ubiquitous products that can be recovered and reused to enhance their service life and environmental performance. Repair/remanufacturing has an important role in extending the service life of the wood pallet. To quantify environmental performances of wood pallet reuse, this study developed representative life cycle inventory data for pallet repair/remanufacturing in the United States based on comprehensive industry-wide production data for 2018. A gate-to-gate life cycle assessment covering raw material supply, raw material transportation and pallet repair/remanufacturing showed that repair/remanufacturing often had the highest impacts, including primary energy consumption at 5.09 MJ and global warming impact at 0.355 kg CO 2 eq per repaired/remanufactured pallet. Electricity consumed onsite followed by nail input and the fuel used by forklifts during the manufacturing drove much of the impacts on the environment. Finally, the results of this study provide valuable information on the repair/remanufacturing impacts, allowing quantification and evaluation of the recovery stage on the overall environmental performance of wood pallets.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Environmental Metrics of Ethanol Production Improve with Increased Biomass Yield and Carbohydrate Content in Populus Trichocarpa

When selecting economically and environmentally advantageous genotypes for domestication in a biofuel supply chain, variability of cell-wall composition within a feedstock population and its impact on biorefinery metrics must be understood. We performed a life cycle assessment (LCA) on a poplar-to-ethanol supply chain to quantify global warming potential and cumulative energy demand as affected by variable carbohydrate content in a large representative natural variant population of Populus trichocarpa. The results showed that both environmental metrics decrease with increasing tree size and with increasing biomass carbohydrate content. These trends parallel prior economic results and provide clear direction to breeders or genetic engineers when improving poplar cultivars.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Can machine learning accelerate process understanding and decision‐relevant predictions of river water quality?

Abstract The global decline of water quality in rivers and streams has resulted in a pressing need to design new watershed management strategies. Water quality can be affected by multiple stressors including population growth, land use change, global warming, and extreme events, with repercussions on human and ecosystem health. A scientific understanding of factors affecting riverine water quality and predictions at local to regional scales, and at sub‐daily to decadal timescales are needed for optimal management of watersheds and river basins. Here, we discuss how machine learning (ML) can enable development of more accurate, computationally tractable, and scalable models for analysis and predictions of river water quality. We review relevant state‐of‐the art applications of ML for water quality models and discuss opportunities to improve the use of ML with emerging computational and mathematical methods for model selection, hyperparameter optimization, incorporating process knowledge into ML models, improving explainablity, uncertainty quantification, and model‐data integration. We then present considerations for using ML to address water quality problems given their scale and complexity, available data and computational resources, and stakeholder needs. When combined with decades of process understanding, interdisciplinary advances in knowledge‐guided ML, information theory, data integration, and analytics can help address fundamental science questions and enable decision‐relevant predictions of riverine water quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of rainfall variability and future change in Brazil across multiple timescales

Abstract Rainfall variability change under global warming is a crucial issue that may have a substantial impact on society and the environment, as it can directly impact biodiversity, agriculture, and water resources. Observed precipitation trends and climate change projections over Brazil indicate that many sectors of society are potentially highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The purpose of this study is to assess model projections of the change in rainfall variability at various temporal scales over sub‐regions of Brazil. For this, daily data from 30 CMIP5 models for historical (1900–2005) and future (2050–2100) experiments under a high‐emission scenario are used. We assess the change in precipitation variability, applying a band‐pass filter to isolate variability on daily, weekly, monthly, intra‐seasonal, and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) time scales. For historical climate, simulated precipitation is evaluated against observations to establish model reliability. The results show that models largely agree on increases in variability on all timescales in all sub‐regions, except on ENSO timescales where models do not agree on the sign of future change. Brazil will experience more rainfall variability in the future that is, drier or more frequent dry periods and wetter wet periods on daily, weekly, monthly, and intra‐seasonal timescales, even in sub‐regions where future changes in mean rainfall are currently uncertain. This may provide useful information for climate change adaptation across, for example, the agriculture and water resource sectors in Brazil.

Alves, Lincoln M.↗