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NASA NTRS1992

Modeling orbital changes on tectonic time scales

Geologic time series indicate significant 100 ka and 400 ka pre-Pleistocene climate fluctuations, prior to the time of such fluctuations in Pleistocene ice sheets. The origin of these fluctuations must therefore depend on phenomena other than the ice sheets. In a previous set of experiments, we tested the sensitivity of an energy balance model to orbital insolation forcing, specifically focusing on the filtering effect of the Earth's geography. We found that in equatorial areas, the twice-yearly passage of the sun across the equator interacts with the precession index to generate 100 ka and 400 ka power in our modeled time series. The effect is proportional to the magnitude of land in equatorial regions. We suggest that such changes may reflect monsoonal variations in the real climate system, and the subsequent wind and weathering changes may transfer some of this signal to the marine record. A comparison with observed fluctuations of Triassic lake levels is quite favorable. A number of problems remain to be studied or clarified: (1) the EBM experiments need to be followed up by a limited number of GCM experiments; (2) the sensitivity to secular changes in orbital forcing needs to be examined; (3) the possible modifying role of sedimentary processes on geologic time series warrants considerably more study; (4) the effect of tectonic changes on Earth's rotation rate needs to be studied; and (5) astronomers need to make explicit which of their predictions are robust and geologists and astronomers have to agree on which of the predictions are most testable in the geologic record.

Crowley, Thomas J.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Oceanic Low Blows Hitting Ice Sheets Where It Hurts

The recent acceleration, thinning and retreat of large outlet glaciers in both Antarctica and Greenland is altering the mass balance of these two large ice sheets and increasing their contribution to rising sea level. In this short Perspective solicited by Science for a special March 24th issue on sea level change, I argue that the cause of these bihemispheric changes is that warmer water has gained access to the undersides of these glaciers where they come afloat from the continent. This process is particularly effective at accelerating glaciers because the beds of the large outlet glaciers are well below sea level (1000 meters or more) but "guarded" downstream by a shallow moraine formed when the glacier was more advanced. Once warmer water can breach this moraine, it sinks in the colder, fresh water behind the moraine and reaches the submarine front of the glacier. The pressure melting effect lowers the melting point of this deep ice allowing the warmer water to melt ice at rates of many tens of meters per year. This melting reduces . the frictional hold of the bed on the ice, allowing the ice to accelerate in agreement with the observations, Hansen has discussed the likelihood that approximately half of the Earth's radiation imbalance is manifesting in warmer ocean waters and Levitus et al. have seen warming in ocean temperature measurements at mid and low latitudes. The behavior of these outlet glaciers indicates this ocean warmth is reaching polar waters. The prognosis is for a continuation of this process, more negative ice sheet mass balances and increased rates of sea level rise.

Bindschadler, Robert↗
NASA NTRS1995

Measuring Geophysical Parameters of the Greenland Ice Sheet using Airborne Radar Altimetry

This paper presents radar-altimeter scattering models for each of the diagenetic zones of the Greenland ice sheet. AAFE radar- altimeter waveforms obtained during the 1991 and 1993 NASA multi-sensor airborne altimetry experiments over Greenland reveal that the Ku-band return pulse changes significantly with the different diagenetic zones. These changes are due to varying amounts of surface and volume scattering in the return waveform. In the ablation and soaked zones, where surface scattering dominates the AAFE return, geophysical parameters such as rms surface height and rms surface slope are obtained by fitting the waveforms to a surface-scattering model. Waveforms from the percolation zone show that the sub-surface ice features have a much more significant effect on the return pulse than the surrounding snowpack. Model percolation waveforms, created using a combined surface- and volume-scattering model and an ice-feature distribution obtained during the 1993 field season, agree well with actual AAFE waveforms taken in the same time period. Using a combined surface- and volume-scattering model for the dry-snow-zone return waveforms, the rms surface height and slope and the attenuation coefficient of the snowpack are obtained. These scattering models not only allow geophysical parameters of the ice sheet to be measured but also help in the understanding of satellite radar-altimeter data.

Ferraro, Ellen J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Understanding Sea Level Changes

Today more than 100 million people worldwide live on coastlines within one meter of mean sea level; any short-term or long-term sea level change relative to vertical ground motion is of great societal and economic concern. As palm-environment and historical data have clearly indicated the existence and prevalence of such changes in the past, new scientific information regarding to the nature and causes and a prediction capability are of utmost importance for the future. The 10-20 cm global sea-level rise recorded over the last century has been broadly attributed to two effects: (1) the steric effect (thermal expansion and salinity-density compensation of sea water) following global climate; (2) mass-budget changes due to a number of competing geophysical and hydrological processes in the Earth-atmosphere-hydrosphere-cryosphere system, including water exchange from polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers to the ocean, atmospheric water vapor and land hydrological variations, and anthropogenic effects such as water impoundment in artificial reservoirs and extraction of groundwater, all superimposed on the vertical motions of solid Earth due to tectonics, rebound of the mantle from past and present deglaciation, and other local ground motions. As remote-sensing tools, a number of space geodetic measurements of sea surface topography (e.g., TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason), ice mass (e.g., ICESat), time-variable gravity (e.g. GRACE), and ground motions (SLR, VLBI, GPS, InSAR, Laser altimetry, etc.) become directly relevant. Understanding sea level changes "anywhere, anytime" in a well-defined terrestrial reference frame in terms of climate change and interactions among ice masses, oceans, and the solid Earth, and being able to predict them, emerge as one of the scientific challenges in the Solid Earth Science Working Group (SESWG, 2003) conclusions.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Assessment of climate variability of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Integration of in situ and satellite data

The proposed research involves the application of multispectral satellite data in combination with ground truth measurements to monitor surface properties of the Greenland Ice Sheet which are essential for describing the energy and mass of the ice sheet. Several key components of the energy balance are parameterized using satellite data and in situ measurements. The analysis will be done for a ten year time period in order to get statistics on the seasonal and interannual variations of the surface processes and the climatology. Our goal is to investigate to what accuracy and over what geographic areas large scale snow properties and radiative fluxes can be derived based upon a combination of available remote sensing and meteorological data sets. Operational satellite sensors are calibrated based on ground measurements and atmospheric modeling prior to large scale analysis to ensure the quality of the satellite data. Further, several satellite sensors of different spatial and spectral resolution are intercompared to access the parameter accuracy. Proposed parameterization schemes to derive key component of the energy balance from satellite data are validated. For the understanding of the surface processes a field program was designed to collect information on spectral albedo, specular reflectance, soot content, grain size and the physical properties of different snow types. Further, the radiative and turbulent fluxes at the ice/snow surface are monitored for the parameterization and interpretation of the satellite data. The expected results include several baseline data sets of albedo, surface temperature, radiative fluxes, and different snow types of the entire Greenland Ice Sheet. These climatological data sets will be of potential use for climate sensitivity studies in the context of future climate change.

Steffen, K.↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Influence of 5000 year-old and Younger Glacial Mass Variability on Present-day Crustal Rebound in the Antarctic Peninsula

Much of the late-Quaternary ice sheet history in the northern hemisphere is now relatively well-constrained, with the total contributions to eustatic sea level change from North America and Eurasia estimated at roughly 60 (+-12) and 20 (+-7) m, respectively, and with deglaciation bracketed at 22 to 8.5 kyr BP.

GPS geodesy glacial rebound sea-level change earth↗
NASA NTRS2020

NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR) Mission

NISAR is a multi-disciplinary Earth-observing radar mission that makes global measurements of land surface changes that will greatly improve Earth system models. NISAR data will clarify spatially and temporally complex phenomena, including ecosystem disturbances, ice sheet collapse, and natural hazards including earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes, and landslides. It provides societally relevant data that will enable better protection of life and property. The mission, a NASA-ISRO partnership, uses two fully polarimetric SARs, one at L-band (L-SAR) and one at S-band (S-SAR), in exact repeating orbits every 12 days that allows interferometric combination of data on repeated passes. NASA provides the L SAR; a shared deployable reflector; an engineering payload that supports mission-specific data handling, navigation and communication functions; science observation planning and L SAR data processing. ISRO provides the S-SAR, spacecraft, launch vehicle, satellite operations, and S-SAR data processing. The mission will be launched from the Satish Dhawan Space Centre, Sriharikota, India. Mission development has addressed many unique challenges and incorporates many “firsts” for a jointly-developed free-flyer radar science mission.

Sarma, C V H S↗
NASA NTRS1999

Radar Interferometry Studies of the Mass Balance of Polar Ice Sheets

The objectives of this work are to determine the current state of mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Our approach combines different techniques, which include satellite synthetic-aperture radar interferometry (InSAR), radar and laser altimetry, radar ice sounding, and finite-element modeling. In Greenland, we found that 3.5 times more ice flows out of the northern part of the Greenland Ice Sheet than previously accounted for. The discrepancy between current and past estimates is explained by extensive basal melting of the glacier floating sections in the proximity of the grounding line where the glacier detaches from its bed and becomes afloat in the ocean. The inferred basal melt rates are very large, which means that the glaciers are very sensitive to changes in ocean conditions. Currently, it appears that the northern Greenland glaciers discharge more ice than is being accumulated in the deep interior, and hence are thinning. Studies of temporal changes in grounding line position using InSAR confirm the state of retreat of northern glaciers and suggest that thinning is concentrated at the lower elevations. Ongoing work along the coast of East Greenland reveals an even larger mass deficit for eastern Greenland glaciers, with thinning affecting the deep interior of the ice sheet. In Antarctica, we found that glaciers flowing into a large ice shelf system, such as the Ronne Ice Shelf in the Weddell Sea, exhibit an ice discharge in remarkable agreement with mass accumulation in the interior, and the glacier grounding line positions do not migrate with time. Glaciers flowing rapidly into the Amudsen Sea, unrestrained by a major ice shelf, are in contrast discharging more ice than required to maintain a state of mass balance and are thinning quite rapidly near the coast. The grounding line of Pine Island glacier (see diagram) retreated 5 km in 4 years, which corresponds to a glacier thinning rate of 3.5 m/yr. Mass imbalance is even more negative on Thwaites Glacier. This sector of West Antarctica probably initiated its collapse decades or centuries ago, once the embaying ice shelves in front of them started to melt because of enhanced basal melting from warmer ocean waters. Additional information is contained in the original.

Rignot, Eric↗
NASA NTRS1995

(abstract) Variations in Polarimetric Backscatter of Saline Ice Grown Under Diurnal Thermal Cycling Condition

An experiment was carried out in January 1994 at the Geophysical Research Facility in the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory. To investigate effects on polarimetric scattering signatures of sea ice growth under diurnal temperature variations, an ice sheet was grown for 2.5 days for the thickness of 10 cm and a polarimetric radar operating at C-band was used to obtain backscattering data in conjunction with ice-characterization measurements. The ice sheet was grown in the late morning of January 19, 1994. The initial growth rate was slow due to high insolation and temperature. As the air temperature dropped during the night, the growth rate increased significantly. The air temperature changed drastically from about -10(deg)C to -35(deg)C between day and night. The temperature cycle was repeated during the next day and the growth rate varied in the same manner. The surface of the ice was partially covered by frost flowers and the areal coverage increased as the ice became thicker. Throughout the ice growth duration of 2.5 days, polarimetric backscatter data were collected at roughly every centimeter of ice growth. For each set of radar measurements of saline ice, a set of calibration measurements was carried out with trihedrial corner reflectors and a metallic sphere. Measured polarimetric backscattering coefficients of the ice sheet reveal a strong correlation between radar data and temperature variations. As the temperature increased (decreased), the backscatter increased (decreased) correspondingly. From the ice-characterization data, temperatures of the air, at the ice-air interface, and in the ice layer had the same variation trend. Another interesting experimental observation is that the salinity measured as a function of ice depth from a sample of 10-cm thich ice indicated that the salinity variations had a similar cycle as the temperature; i.e., the salinity profile recorded the history of the temperature variations. Characterization data of the ice sheet are used in a theoretical model for scattering from saline ice with frost cover to explain the observed polarimetric signatures.

characterization polarimetric radar salinity tempe↗
NASA NTRS2018

Enhancing New York City's Resilience to Sea Level Rise and Increased Coastal Flooding

The large population and major economic assets along New York City's extensive waterfront face exposure to sea level rise (SLR) and coastal flooding. The New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), an advisory group of academic and private-sector experts, provides the city with scientific guidance on future climate risks. Here we highlight current NPCC research on sea level rise, coastal flooding, with some of the City's current and planned responses.Twentieth century SLR in New York City (2.8 cm/decade) exceeded the global average (1.2-1.9 cm/decade), underscoring a greater regional risk. In 2015, the NPCC projected a 2080s SLR of 46-99 cm relative to 2000-2004 (25th -75th percentile) at the Battery, with high-end SLR estimates (90th percentile) of 1.9 m by 2100. Growing evidence of potential instability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) suggests the possibility of even higher future sea levels. We therefore present a new low probability, yet high impact SLR scenario for New York City, which incorporates these ice sheet instabilities. The new SLR projections will be combined with coastal flood return period curves for the 100-year storm flood levels. Related ongoing research examines changes in storm characteristics, surge--sea level rise interactions, and mapping of neighborhoods at risk.Guided by NPCC findings, New York City undertakes programs to strengthen coastal defenses, tailored to specific neighborhood needs. NPCC in collaboration with the city, continues to investigate vulnerability to extreme climate events, such as inland floods and coastal storms, and to develop stronger links with community-based stakeholder groups. New York City's plans to enhance coastal urban resiliency stand as a model for other urban coastal centers as they prepare for climate change.

Gornitz, Vivien↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Fiber Optic System for the Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) Instrument

The Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) Instrument has been in integration and testing over the past 18 months in preparation for the Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite - 2 (ICESat-2) Mission, scheduled to launch in 2017. ICESat-2 is the follow on to ICESat which launched in 2003 and operated until 2009. ATLAS will measure the elevation of ice sheets, glaciers and sea ice or the "cryosphere" (as well as terrain) to provide data for assessing the earth's global climate changes. Where ICESat's instrument, the Geo-Science Laser Altimeter (GLAS) used a single beam measured with a 70 m spot on the ground and a distance between spots of 170 m, ATLAS will measure a spot size of 10 m with a spacing of 70 cm using six beams to measure terrain height changes as small as 4 mm. The ATLAS pulsed transmission system consists of two lasers operating at 532 nm with transmitter optics for beam steering, a diffractive optical element that splits the signal into 6 separate beams, receivers for start pulse detection and a wavelength tracking system. The optical receiver telescope system consists of optics that focus all six beams into optical fibers that feed a filter system that transmits the signal via fiber assemblies to the detectors. Also included on the instrument is a system that calibrates the alignment of the transmitted pulses to the receiver optics for precise signal capture. The larger electro optical subsystems for transmission, calibration, and signal receive, stay aligned and transmitting sufficiently due to the optical fiber system that links them together. The robust design of the fiber optic system, consisting of a variety of multi fiber arrays and simplex assemblies with multiple fiber core sizes and types, will enable the system to maintain consistent critical alignments for the entire life of the mission. Some of the development approaches used to meet the challenging optical system requirements for ATLAS are discussed here.

global climate changes↗
NASA NTRS2005

Arctic Warming Signals from Satellite Observations

Global warming signals are expected to be amplified in the Arctic primarily because of ice-albedo feedback associated with the high reflectivity of ice and snow that blankets much of the region. The Arctic had been a poorly explored territory basically because of its general inaccessibility on account of extremely harsh weather conditions and the dominant presence of thick perennial ice in the region. The advent of satellite remote sensing systems since the 1960s, however, enabled the acquisition of synoptic data that depict in good spatial detail the temporal changes of many Arctic surface parameters. Among the surface parameters that have been studied using space based systems are surface temperature, sea ice concentration, snow cover, surface albedo and phytoplankton concentration. Associated atmospheric parameters, such as cloud cover, temperature profile, ozone concentration, and aerosol have also been derived. Recent observational and phenomenological studies have indeed revealed progressively changing conditions in the Arctic during the last few decades (e g , Walsh et al. 1996; Serreze et al 2000; Comiso and Parkinson 2004). The changes included declines in the extent and area of surfaces covered by sea ice and snow, increases in melt area over the Greenland ice sheets, thawing of the permafrost, warming in the troposphere, and retreat of the glaciers. These observations are consistent with the observed global warming that has been associated with the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (Karl and Trenberth 2003) and confirmed by modeling studies (Holland and Bitz, 2003). The Arctic system, however, is still not well understood complicated by a largely fluctuating wind circulation and atmospheric conditions (Proshutinsky and Johnson 1997) and controlled by what is now known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) which provides a measure of the strength of atmospheric activities in the region (Thompson and Wallace 1998). Meanwhile, the observed Arctic conditions since the 1970s have been shown to exhibit a linear behavior that directly contradicts what has been expected from the A0 (Overland, 2005). The decade of the 1990s has been regarded as the warmest decade in the last century and current data indicates that the 2000s may be even a warmer decade than the 1990s further supporting the linear variability. In this paper, we use satellite data to gain insights into the warming Arctic and how the abnormally warm conditions during the last few years are reflected in the region.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗
NASA NTRS1995

The Effect of Antarctic Ice Mass Changes on Crustal Motion and Global Geodetic Observables

Glaciological estimates of the present-day ice mass balance of Antarctica vary widely, indicating the need for additional data to constrain mass-balance models. For example, recent studies find both a positive and a negative mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet. Analysis of studies suggest that observations of present-day crustal motion, as obtained from a GPS survey could assist in defining models.

glaciology ice mass changes crustal motion geodeti↗
NASA NTRS1992

A first-order global model of Late Cenozoic climatic change: Orbital forcing as a pacemaker of the ice ages

The development of a theory of the evolution of the climate of the earth over millions of years can be subdivided into three fundamental, nested, problems: (1) to establish by equilibrium climate models (e.g., general circulation models) the diagnostic relations, valid at any time, between the fast-response climate variables (i.e., the 'weather statistics') and both the prescribed external radiative forcing and the prescribed distribution of the slow response variables (e.g., the ice sheets and shelves, the deep ocean state, and the atmospheric CO2 concentration); (2) to construct, by an essentially inductive process, a model of the time-dependent evolution of the slow-response climatic variables over time scales longer than the damping times of these variables but shorter than the time scale of tectonic changes in the boundary conditions (e.g., altered geography and elevation of the continents, slow outgassing, and weathering) and ultra-slow astronomical changes such as in the solar radiative output; and (3) to determine the nature of these ultra-slow processes and their effects on the evolution of the equilibrium state of the climatic system about which the above time-dependent variations occur. All three problems are discussed in the context of the theory of the Quaternary climate, which will be incomplete unless it is embedded in a more general theory for the fuller Cenozoic that can accommodate the onset of the ice-age fluctuations. We construct a simple mathematical model for the Late Cenozoic climatic changes based on the hypothesis that forced and free variations of the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (notably CO2), coupled with changes in the deep ocean state and ice mass, under the additional 'pacemaking' influence of earth-orbital forcing, are primary determinants of the climate state over this period. Our goal is to illustrate how a single model governing both very long term variations and higher frequency oscillatory variations in the Pleistocene can be formulated with relatively few adjustable parameters.

Saltzman, Barry↗
NASA NTRS2014

Climate Trends in the Arctic as Observed from Space

The Arctic is a region in transformation. Warming in the region has been amplified, as expected from ice-albedo feedback effects, with the rate of warming observed to be approx. 0.60+/-0.07 C/decade in the Arctic (>64degN) compared to approx. 0.17 C/decade globally during the last three decades. This increase in surface temperature is manifested in all components of the cryosphere. In particular, the sea ice extent has been declining at the rate of approx. 3.8%/decade, whereas the perennial ice (represented by summer ice minimum) is declining at a much greater rate of approx.11.5%/decade. Spring snow cover has also been observed to be declining by −2.12%/decade for the period 1967-2012. The Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass at the rate of approx. 34.0Gt/year (sea level equivalence of 0.09 mm/year) during the period from 1992 to 2011, but for the period 2002-2011, a higher rate of mass loss of approx. 215 Gt/year has been observed. Also, the mass of glaciers worldwide declined at the rate of 226 Gt/year from 1971 to 2009 and 275 Gt/year from 1993 to 2009. Increases in permafrost temperature have also been measured in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere while a thickening of the active layer that overlies permafrost and a thinning of seasonally frozen ground has also been reported. To gain insight into these changes, comparative analysis with trends in clouds, albedo, and the Arctic Oscillation is also presented.

arctic↗
NASA NTRS2017

Chapter 12: Sea Level Rise

Global mean sea level (GMSL) has risen by about 7-8 inches (about 16-21 cm) since 1900, with about 3 of those inches (about 7 cm) occurring since 1993. Human-caused climate change has made a substantial contribution to GMSL rise since 1900, contributing to a rate of rise that is greater than during any preceding century in at least 2,800 years. Relative to the year 2000, GMSL is very likely to rise by 0.3-0.6 feet (9-18 cm) by 2030, 0.5-1.2 feet (15-38 cm) by 2050, and 1.0-4.3 feet (30-130 cm) by 2100. Future pathways have little effect on projected GMSL rise in the first half of the century, but significantly affect projections for the second half of the century. Emerging science regarding Antarctic ice sheet stability suggests that, for high emission scenarios, a GMSL rise exceeding 8 feet (2.4 m) by 2100 is physically possible, although the probability of such an extreme outcome cannot currently be assessed. Regardless of pathway, it is extremely likely that GMSL rise will continue beyond 2100. Relative sea level (RSL) rise in this century will vary along U.S. coastlines due, in part, to changes in Earth's gravitational field and rotation from melting of land ice, changes in ocean circulation, and vertical land motion (very high confidence). For almost all future GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be greater than the global average in the U.S. Northeast and the western Gulf of Mexico. In intermediate and low GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be less than the global average in much of the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. For high GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be higher than the global average along all U.S. coastlines outside Alaska. Almost all U.S. coastlines experience more than global mean sea level rise in response to Antarctic ice loss, and thus would be particularly affected under extreme GMSL rise scenarios involving substantial Antarctic mass loss. As sea levels have risen, the number of tidal floods each year that cause minor impacts (also called "nuisance floods") have increased 5- to 10-fold since the 1960s in several U.S. coastal cities. Rates of increase are accelerating in over 25 Atlantic and Gulf Coast cities. Tidal flooding will continue increasing in depth, frequency, and extent this century. Assuming storm characteristics do not change, sea level rise will increase the frequency and extent of extreme flooding associated with coastal storms, such as hurricanes and nor'easters. A projected increase in the intensity of hurricanes in the North Atlantic could increase the probability of extreme flooding along most of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coast states beyond what would be projected based solely on RSL rise. However, there is low confidence in the projected increase in frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes, and the associated flood risk amplification and flood effects could be offset or amplified by such factors as changes in overall storm frequency or tracks.

Sweet, W. V.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Assessment of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Mass Balance Estimates: 1992 - 2009

Published mass balance estimates for the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) lie between approximately +50 to -250 Gt/year for 1992 to 2009, which span a range equivalent to 15% of the annual mass input and 0.8 mm/year Sea Level Equivalent (SLE). Two estimates from radar-altimeter measurements of elevation change by European Remote-sensing Satellites (ERS) (+28 and -31 Gt/year) lie in the upper part, whereas estimates from the Input-minus-Output Method (IOM) and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) lie in the lower part (-40 to -246 Gt/year). We compare the various estimates, discuss the methodology used, and critically assess the results. Although recent reports of large and accelerating rates of mass loss from GRACE=based studies cite agreement with IOM results, our evaluation does not support that conclusion. We find that the extrapolation used in the published IOM estimates for the 15 % of the periphery for which discharge velocities are not observed gives twice the rate of discharge per unit of associated ice-sheet area than the 85% faster-moving parts. Our calculations show that the published extrapolation overestimates the ice discharge by 282 Gt/yr compared to our assumption that the slower moving areas have 70% as much discharge per area as the faster moving parts. Also, published data on the time-series of discharge velocities and accumulation/precipitation do not support mass output increases or input decreases with time, respectively. Our modified IOM estimate, using the 70% discharge assumption and substituting input from a field-data compilation for input from an atmospheric model over 6% of area, gives a loss of only 13 Gt/year (versus 136 Gt/year) for the period around 2000. Two ERS-based estimates, our modified IOM, and a GRACE-based estimate for observations within 1992 to 2005 lie in a narrowed range of +27 to - 40 Gt/year, which is about 3% of the annual mass input and only 0.2 mm/year SLE. Our preferred estimate for 1992-2001 is - 47 Gt/year for West Antarctica, + 16 Gt/year for East Antarctica, and -31 Gt/year overall (+0.1 mm/year SLE), not including part of the Antarctic Peninsula (1.07 % of the AIS area)

Zwally, H. Jay↗
NASA NTRS2004

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Special Session: Mars Climate Change

The session "Mars Climate Change" contained the following reports:Geological Evidence for Climate Change on Mars; A New Astronomical Solution for the Long Term Evolution of the Insolation Quantities of Mars; Interpreting Martian Paleoclimate with a Mars General Circulation Model; History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change; Northern and Southern Permafrost Regions on Mars with High Content of Water Ice: Similarities and Differences; Periods of Active Permafrost Layer Formation in the Recent Geological History of Mars; Microclimate Zones in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica: Implications for Landscape; Evolution and Climate Change on Mars; Geomorphic Evidence for Martian Ground Ice and Climate Change; Explaining the Mid-Latitude Ice Deposits with a General Circulation Model; Tharsis Montes Cold-based Glaciers: Observations and Constraints for Modeling and Preliminary Results; Ice Sheet Modeling: Terrestrial Background and Application to Arsia Mons Lobate Deposit, Mars; Enhanced Water-Equivalent Hydrogen on the Western Flanks of the Tharsis Montes and Olympus Mons: Remnant Subsurface Ice or Hydrate Minerals?; and New Age Mars.

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