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At least 307 records · Page 17

GRACE Improves Seasonal Groundwater Forecast Initialization Over the United States

We evaluate the impact of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment data assimilation (GRACE-DA) on seasonal hydrological forecast initialization over the United States, focusing on groundwater storage. GRACE-based terrestrial water storage (TWS) estimates are assimilated into a land surface model for the2003–16 period. Three-month hindcast (i.e., forecast of past events) simulations are initialized using states from the reference (no data assimilation) and GRACE-DA runs. Differences between the two initial hydrological condition (IHC) sets are evaluated for two forecast techniques at 305 wells where depth to water table measurements are available. Results show that using GRACE-DA-based IHC improves seasonal groundwater forecast performance in terms of both RMSE and correlation. While most regions show improvement, degradation is common in the High Plains, where withdrawals for irrigation practices affect groundwater variability more strongly than the weather variability, which demonstrates the need for simulating such activities. These findings contribute to recent efforts toward an improved U.S. drought monitoring and forecast system.

Augusto Getirana↗

Satellite Gravimetry Improves Seasonal Streamflow Forecast Initialization in Africa

West Africa is one of the poorest regions in the world and highly vulnerable to extreme hydrological events due to the lack of reliable monitoring and forecast systems. For the first time, we demonstrate that initial hydrological conditions informed by satellite-based terrestrial water storage (TWS) estimates improve seasonal streamflow forecasts. TWS variability detected by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites is assimilated into a land surface model during 2003–2016 and used to initialize 6-month hindcasts (i.e., forecasts of past events) during West Africa's wet seasons. We find that GRACE data assimilation (DA) generally increases groundwater and soil moisture storage in the region, resulting in increased evapotranspiration and reduced total runoff. Total runoff is particularly lower at the headwaters of the Niger River, positively impacting streamflow simulations and hindcast initializations. Compared to simulations without GRACE-DA, hindcasts are notably improved at locations draining from large basin areas, in particular, over the Niger River basin, which is consistent with GRACE's coarse spatial resolution. The long memory of groundwater and deep soil moisture, two main TWS components updated by GRACE-DA, is reflected in prolonged improvements in the streamflow hindcasts. Model accuracy at Niamey, Niger, the most populated city where streamflow observations are available, improved up to 33% during the flood season. These new findings directly contribute to ongoing developments in food security, flood potential forecast, and water-related disaster warning systems for Africa.

Augusto Getirana↗

Dissemination of Global Flood Information Through Nasa Disasters Program Global Initiative for Flood Forecasting and Alerting (GIFFT)

The Global Initiative for Flood Forecasting and Alerting (GIFFT) is an initiative to disseminate flood products from different sensors to global stakeholders via the Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC) DisasterAWARE®, the NASA Disasters Mapping Portal and potentially other mechanisms. GIFFT will also generate an integrated product(s) using ensembled hydrologic models and Earth observation derived flood outputs to stakeholders globally. This initiative combines the results of several Disasters Program funded projects that focus on flood forecasting, flood severity estimation, post-event flood mapping, flooddepth estimation and resulting flood severity using remote sensing-based flood information derived from SAR and optical imagery. PDC’s DisasterAWARE platform is a global multi-hazard alerting platform that currently incorporatesModel of Models (MoM) outputs as flood “incidents,” visually depicting potential floods in the context ofpopulation and infrastructure that may become affected. Automated procedures are being developed tocategorize MoM outputs as DisasterAWARE “hazards,” allowing for their dissemination to users alongwith other flood products that assess potential impacts. PDC’s stakeholders include UN, DoD, FEMA andtheir equivalents around the world. Additionally, the DisasterALERT mobile platform has 2 million usersworldwide and is a fully functional and sustained platform used to disseminate alerts and analyticalproducts for 18 different hazard types. GIFFT has incorporated HydroSAR products that will bedistributed via DisasterAWARE.

remote sensing↗

AI Foundation Models for Science: An Open Collaborative Initiative

Foundation Models (FMs), AI models designed to replace task-specific models, are increasingly being recognized for their versatility across numerous downstream applications. These models, trained using self-supervised techniques on any type of sequence data, circumvent the need for large annotated datasets, a major bottleneck in traditional AI model development. FMs can be applied to downstream tasks using few-shot learning and fine-tuning, significantly reducing the need for large labeled training datasets and computational resources. However, the development of FMs requires substantial resources, including access to data and compute power, expertise in the latest models, and specialized scientific knowledge for systematic evaluation. It is challenging for a single group to possess all these capabilities. To address this, NASA IMPACT has initiated an open collaborative effort, leveraging partnerships with the private sector and other groups within and outside NASA, to jointly build FMs. The overarching goal is to develop a consistent and collaborative approach to building FMs for high-value science datasets. This initiative has fostered collaboration within NASA and with external partners, including IBM Research, Clark University, DOE’s ORNL, ESA, and USGS. The effort focuses on identifying key datasets with a wide range of downstream applications, pretraining and building FMs using modified transformer architectures, evaluating compute infrastructure needs, and sharing models, pretraining and fine-tuning code, and data with the community. Furthermore, it aims to train the Earth science community to fine-tune these models for various downstream applications. Our initial effort resulted in the creation of a 100 million parameter HLS Geospatial Model within six months, which was released on HuggingFace. We are now expanding our scope to include data from weather and climate models and investigating multimodal models. We invite those interested in participating in this effort to join us by sharing their use cases, expertise, or data.

Rahul Ramachandran↗

Inverse Modeling of the Initial Stage of the 1991 Pinatubo Volcanic Cloud Accounting for Radiative Feedback of Volcanic Ash

The way volcanic clouds evolve is very sensitive to the initial spatial 3D distributions of volcanic materials, which are often unknown. In this study, we conducted inverse modeling of the Mt. Pinatubo cloud using TOMS 2D mapping of Aerosol Index and SO 2 loading during the first three post-eruption days to estimate the time-dependent emissions profiles and initial 3D spatial distributions of volcanic ash and SO 2 . We account for aerosol radiative feedback and dynamic lofting of volcanic ash in the inversion calculations for the first time. This resulted in a lower ash injection height (by 1.5 km for ash) than without ash radiative feedback. The Pinatubo eruption ejected ≈77% of fine ash at 12 to 23 km, ≈65% of SO 2 at 18–25 km. In contrast with previous studies, which suggested that all volcanic materials were emitted above the tropopause, a significant fraction of SO 2 (5.1 of 15.5 Mt) and fine ash (37.2 of 66.5 Mt) were ejected in the troposphere, where SO 2 quickly oxidized into sulfate aerosol that is short-lived in the troposphere. This explains the early presence of sulfate aerosols in the plume and why the models can reproduce the observed volcanic aerosols' optical depth (AOD), assuming lower-than-observed SO 2 emission in the stratosphere. Despite the quicker than in observations build-up of sulfate AOD, in a month after the eruption, the evolution of the Pinatubo AOD simulated using the obtained ash and SO 2 initial distributions converges with the available stratospheric aerosol and gas experiment (SAGE) observations.

Pinatubo volcanic ash and SO2 emissions↗

Initialization of distributed spacecraft for precision formation flying

In this paper we present a solution to the formation initialization problem for N distributed spacecraft located in deep space. Our solution to the FI problem is based on a three-stage sky search procedure that reduces the FI problem for N spacecraft to the simpler problem of initializing a set of sub-formations. We demonstrate our FI algorithm in simulation using NASA's five spacecraft Terrestrial Planet Finder mission as an example.

formation flying initialization distributed spacec↗

Guaranteed initialization of distributed spacecraft formations

In this paper we present a solution to the formation initialization (FI) problem for N distributed spacecraft located in deep space. Our solution to the FI problem is based on a three-stage sky search procedure that reduces the FI problem for N spacecraft to the simpler problem of initializing a set of sub-formations.

initialization↗

Supplier Outreach and Process Control (SOPC) and Supplier Rating Initiative (SRI)

The viewgraph presentation presents an overview of NASA's Supplier Outreach and Process Control (SOPC) and Supplier Risk Initiatives. The discussion of the SOPC examines its importance, current groups who are involved, provides a mission statement, and describes outreach activities and how suppliers are selected. The discussion of the Supplier Risk Initiative examines the variety of ways that integrity, availability, and assurance factor in to supplier risk and describes a new supplier rating program.

quality control↗

The Effect of Initial Imperfections on the Buckling Stress of Cylindrical Shells

Techniques have been developed for making essentially "perfect" thin cylindrical shells and for making shells with definite types of initial deformations. The "perfect" shells give buckling stresses much higher than have previously been obtained. Initial deformations of the form ∆R= a(o) sin ((πx)/L) have been tested and ranges of positive a(o) were found in which there was no lowering of the buckling stress. Negative values of a(o) caused a decrease in the failure load. A theoretical solution which indicated the same trends as were found experimentally has been carried out.

CYLINDRICAL SHELL↗

Recursive filter initialization.

Description of an initialization technique which partially accounts for the interrelation between the true-state vector errors when recursive filtering is applied in space navigation systems. The technique reduces the undesirable transient effects of the first few measurements and inhibits filter divergence when the interval between measurements is inordinately large. The key feature of this technique is the inclusion of the effect of a number of pseudo-measurements of certain orbital parameters into the initial covariance matrix. The pseudo-measurement technique has been shown to be useful when reinitialization of the error covariance matrix is required to prevent filter divergence.

Battin, R. H.↗

Preliminary results for a large angle oblique jet impingement and flow and for the effect of initial conditions on the near field of an axisymmetric jet

The structure of an axisymmetric jet in the near field is discussed for jet noise and for jet impingment schemes for STOL aircraft. It is inferred from previous studies, and the inference is supported by analysis, that the scale and intensity of the turbulence structure at the jet exit plane are the important boundary conditions which effect the development of the flow in the near field. The techniques to study these effects while maintaining a uniform mean flow and the results which document the range of the initial conditions are presented. The large angle, oblique jet impingment condition is of interest in terms of the jet/flap interaction. Detailed turbulence data can be obtained with the specially constructed facility. The development of the flow and instrumentation system and initial data from the new facility are presented.

Foss, J. F.↗

A microscopic study of crack initiation mechanisms in 7075 aluminum alloy sheets.

A study of the opening mode of crack initiation in 7075-T6 aluminum alloy sheets has been conducted with the aid of a scanning electron microscope. Observations were made from several orientations, including the top view of the specimen which showed the notch profile and the edge view of the specimen which showed the entire notch front along the specimen thickness. It was found that the edge view exhibited the first signs of permanent deformation at about 55% of the breaking strength. These changes took the form of deformation bands which were aligned in the direction of the tensile axis and apparently defined limiting regions of homogeneous slip. It is felt that the appearance of microcracks at loads approaching the breaking strength was of fundamental importance in the formation of the final fracture surface. Many of these microcraks were initiated at intermetallic particles and other metallurgically weak regions on the notch surface. It was also possible to correlate the strain in the notch with the stress intensity factor for the various loads. Very large plastic strains were observed on the notch tip as compared to published values of elongation at fracture for unnotched specimens.

Jones, D. L.↗

A dual method for optimal control problems with initial and final boundary constraints.

This paper presents two new algorithms belonging to the family of dual methods of centers. The first can be used for solving fixed time optimal control problems with inequality constraints on the initial and terminal states. The second one can be used for solving fixed time optimal control problems with inequality constraints on the initial and terminal states and with affine instantaneous inequality constraints on the control. Convergence is established for both algorithms. Qualitative reasoning indicates that the rate of convergence is linear.

Pironneau, O.↗