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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Benchmark Calculation for the Quad Cities Unit 1 Cycles 1-3 Using the SCALE 6.3/Polaris–PARCS v3.4.2 Code Package

In this study, benchmark calculations were performed for the Quad Cities Unit 1 cycles 1–3 to validate the SCALE 6.3/Polaris–PARCS v3.4.2 code package with the ENDF/B-VII.1 AMPX 56-group library by comparing the simulated results with the measured data. The benchmark results will be used in evaluating uncertainties of the SCALE/Polaris–PARCS code package for boiling water reactor physics analysis for key nuclear parameters such as reactivity and assembly power peaking factors. This report details plant and fuel design specifications and input data for SCALE/Polaris, GenPMAXS, and PARCS; additionally, detailed information is provided for all the input and output files produced for the benchmark calculations. The benchmark results are summarized herein so that they can be used to evaluate uncertainties with other benchmark results for key nuclear parameters.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A surrogate-model-based approach for estimating the first and second-order moments of offshore wind power

Power curve, the functional relationship that governs the process of converting a set of weather variables experienced by a wind turbine into electric power, is widely used in the wind industry to estimate power output for planning and operational purposes. Existing methods for power curve estimation have three main limitations: (i) they mostly rely on wind speed as the sole input, thus ignoring the secondary, yet possibly significant effects of other environmental factors, (ii) they largely overlook the complex marine environment in which offshore turbines operate, potentially compromising their value in offshore wind energy applications, and (ii) they solely focus on the first-order properties of wind power, with little (or null) information about the variation around the mean behavior, which is important for ensuring reliable grid integration, asset health monitoring, and energy storage, among others. In light of that, this study investigates the impact of several wind-and wave-related factors on offshore wind power variability, with the ultimate goal of accurately predicting its first two moments. Further, our approach couples OpenFAST—a multi-physics wind turbine simulator—with Gaussian Process (GP) regression to reveal the underlying relationships governing offshore weather-to-power conversion. We first find that a multi-input power curve which captures the combined impact of wind speed, direction, and air density, can provide double-digit improvements, in terms of prediction accuracy, relative to univariate methods which rely on wind speed as the sole explanatory variable (e.g. the standard method of bins). Wave-related variables are found not important for predicting the average power output, but interestingly, appear to be extremely relevant in describing the fluctuation of the offshore power around its mean. Tested on real-world data collected at the New York/New Jersey bight, our proposed multi-input models demonstrate a high explanatory power in predicting the first two moments of offshore wind generation, testifying their potential value to the offshore wind industry.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Towards fully predictive gyrokinetic full- f simulations: validation and triangularity studies in TCV

Designing economical magnetic confinement fusion power plants motivates computational tools that can estimate plasma behavior from engineering parameters without direct reliance on experimental measurement of the plasma profiles. In this work, we present full-f global long-wavelength gyrokinetic simulations of edge and scrape-off layer turbulence in tokamaks that use only magnetic geometry, heating power, and particle inventory as inputs. Unlike many modeling approaches that employ free parameters fitted to experimental data, raising uncertainties when extrapolating to reactor scales. This approach directly simulates turbulence and resulting profiles through gyrokinetics without such empirical adjustments. This is achieved via an adaptive sourcing algorithm in Gkeyll that strictly controls energy injection and emulates particle sourcing due to neutral recycling. We show that the simulated kinetic profiles compare reasonably well with Thomson scattering and Langmuir probe data for Tokamak á Configuration Variable (TCV) discharge #65125, and that the simulations reproduce characteristic features such as blob transport and self-organized electric fields. Applying the same framework to study triangularity effects suggests mechanisms contributing to the improved confinement reported for negative triangularity (NT). Simulations of TCV discharges #65125 and #65130 indicate that NT increases the E x B flow shear (by about 20% in these cases), which correlates with reduced turbulent losses and a modest change in the distribution of power exhaust to the vessel wall. While the physical models contain approximations that can be refined in future work, the predictive capability demonstrated here, evolving multiple profile relaxation times with kinetic electron and ion models in hundreds of GPU hours, indicates the feasibility of using Gkeyll to support design studies of fusion devices.

Hoffmann, Antoine Cyril David [Princeton Plasma Ph↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ensemble Kalman inversion of induced polarization data

SUMMARY This paper explores the applicability of ensemble Kalman inversion (EKI) with level-set parametrization for solving geophysical inverse problems. In particular, we focus on its extension to induced polarization (IP) data with uncertainty quantification. IP data may provide rich information on characteristics of geological materials due to its sensitivity to characteristics of the pore–grain interface. In many IP studies, different geological units are juxtaposed and the goal is to delineate these units and obtain estimates of unit properties with uncertainty bounds. Conventional inversion of IP data does not resolve well sharp interfaces and tends to reduce and smooth resistivity variations, while not readily providing uncertainty estimates. Recently, it has been shown for DC resistivity that EKI is an efficient solver for inverse problems which provides uncertainty quantification, and its combination with level set parametrization can delineate arbitrary interfaces well. In this contribution, we demonstrate the extension of EKI to IP data using a sequential approach, where the mean field obtained from DC resistivity inversion is used as input for a separate phase angle inversion. We illustrate our workflow using a series of synthetic and field examples. Variations with uncertainty bounds in both DC resistivity and phase angles are recovered by EKI, which provides useful information for hydrogeological site characterization. Although phase angles are less well-resolved than DC resistivity, partly due to their smaller range and higher percentage data errors, it complements DC resistivity for site characterization. Overall, EKI with level set parametrization provides a practical approach forward for efficient hydrogeophysical imaging under uncertainty.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Quantification for Electronic Hamiltonian

This program will generate random points for electrons within the dimensions given by a parameter input file. Based on these randomly generated electron positions and the nuclear positions given by a position input file it will generate a value for the total electronic energy of an isolated system. This total electronic energy is calculated using the electronic Hamiltonian for a monoatomic system with atoms having the same number of protons and neutrons. The size of the system is defined by the parameter input file. The program will do this many times to generate a distribution of theoretically possible electronic total energies of the system. A user can then compare the total electronic energy given by their electronic structure method to make sure it falls within the distribution of theoretically possible values.

Savchick, JuniperC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Advanced control sequences and FDD technology. Just shiny objects, or ready for scale?

Innovations in commercial building control sequences (ASHRAE guideline 36) and fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) technology have the potential to transform existing building operational efficiency by realizing whole-building level savings on the order of 15% and higher. However, several technical and market barriers related to up-front estimation of achievable savings, verifying implementation, and ensuring persistence are slowing down their adoption as a core offering through diverse owner-funded initiatives and rate-payer funded programs. This paper describes a suite of solutions to overcome these barriers to program delivery of advanced HVAC controls integrated with FDD energy management and information system (EMIS) technology. First, the Guideline 36 conformance test offers an automated method to confirm correct sequence implementation by the manufacturer, before field deployment. A successful test of a controller was conducted using a new manufacturer-independent hardware-in-the-loop testbed demonstrating the viability and scalability of this approach. Second, the Guideline 36 energy savings calculator uses modeling paired with high-level user inputs to estimate building-specific savings potential, target cost effective implementation and minimize uncertainty. Initial results indicate the baseline control sequences significantly impact energy savings, however, as much as 50% savings may be possible for the worst-case baseline scenario. Third, a functional specification provides minimum recommended EMIS-FDD capabilities, and best practices to integrate the technology into organizational practice and ensure that advanced control sequences provide persistent savings.

Pritoni, Marco↗
DOE OSTI2023

Templates of expected measurement uncertainties for (n, xn) cross sections

A template is provided for evaluating experimental uncertainties for neutron elastic and inelastic scattering cross sections and γ -ray production cross sections from (n, xn) measurements at laboratories with monoenergetic or white neutron sources. A typical range of uncertainties is presented for experiments detecting the scattered neutrons or the resulting de-excitation γ rays based on a survey of available data and input from many experimentalists and theorists with extensive knowledge in the field. Models commonly used to evaluate the resulting cross-sections are also discussed. Suggestions are made regarding what experimental and uncertainty information is needed for data evaluations and should be included when reporting experimental (n, xn) cross sections. Uncertainty values and correlations are recommended if these values cannot be estimated for past data from the literature.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Benchmark Calculation for Turkey Point Unit 3 Cycles 1-3 Using the SCALE 6.3/Polaris–PARCS v3.4.2 Code Package

Benchmark calculations were performed for Turkey Point Unit 3 cycles 1–3 to validate the SCALE 6.3/Polaris–PARCS v3.4.2 code with the ENDF/B–VII.1 56–group library by comparing the simulated results with the measured data. The benchmark results will be used in evaluating the SCALE/Polaris–PARCS code package’s uncertainties for pressurized water reactor physics analysis. That future analysis will include key nuclear parameters such as reactivity, control bank worth, temperature coefficients, and pin and assembly power peaking factors. The present document details plant and fuel design specifications and input data for SCALE/Polaris, GenPMAXS, and PARCS. Additional details are provided with respect to the input and output files produced for the benchmark calculations. The benchmark results are summarized such that they can be used in evaluating uncertainties with other benchmark results for key nuclear parameters.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Benchmark Calculation for Surry Unit 1 Cycles 1-3 Using the SCALE 6.3/Polaris–PARCS v3.4.2 Code Package

The benchmark calculations were performed for Surry Unit 1 cycles 1–3 to validate the SCALE 6.3/Polaris–Purdue Advanced Reactor Core Simulator (PARCS) v3.4.2 with the ENDF/B–VII.1 56–group library by comparing the simulated results with the measured data. The benchmark results will be used to evaluate uncertainties of the SCALE/Polaris–PARCS code package for pressurized water reactor physics analysis for key nuclear parameters such as reactivity, control bank worth, temperature coefficients, and pin and assembly power peaking factors. This report details plant and fuel design specifications and input data for SCALE/Polaris, GenPMAXS, and PARCS. Additional details are provided for the input and output files produced for the benchmark calculations. The benchmark results were summarized such that they can be used in evaluating uncertainties with other benchmark results for key nuclear parameters.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Benchmark Calculation for the Watts Bar Unit 1 Cycles 1-3 Using the SCALE 6.3/Polaris–PARCS v3.4.2 Code Package

Benchmark calculations for the Watts Bar Unit 1 cycles 1–3 were performed to validate the SCALE 6.3/Polaris–PARCS v3.4.2 with the ENDF/B-VII.1 56-group library by comparing the simulated results with the measured data. The benchmark results are used in evaluating uncertainties of the SCALE/Polaris–PARCS code package for pressurized water reactor physics analysis for key nuclear parameters such as reactivity, control bank worth, temperature coefficients, and pin and assembly power peaking factors. This report details plant and fuel design specifications and input data for SCALE/Polaris, GenPMAXS, and PARCS. Additional details are provided for the input and output files produced for the benchmark calculations. The benchmark results were summarized such that they can be used in evaluating uncertainties for key nuclear parameters with other benchmark results.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Determination of crossing-symmetric π π scattering amplitudes and the quark mass evolution of the σ constrained by lattice QCD

Lattice QCD spectra can be used to constrain partial-wave scattering amplitudes that, while satisfying unitarity, do not have to respect crossing symmetry and analyticity. This becomes a particular problem when extrapolated far from real energies, e.g. in the case of broad resonances like the σ , leading to large systematic uncertainties in the pole position. In this manuscript, we will show how dispersion relations can implement the additional constraints, using as input lattice-determined π π partial-wave scattering amplitudes with isospin–0,1,2. We will show that only certain combinations of amplitude parametrizations satisfy all constraints, and that when we restrict to these, the σ pole position is determined with minimal systematic uncertainty. The evolution of the now well-constrained σ pole with varying light quark mass is presented, showing how it transitions from a bound-state to a broad resonance. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards Efficient Uncertainty estimation in deep learning for robust energy prediction in crystal materials

In material science, recent studies have started to explore the potential of using deep learning to improve property prediction from high-fidelity simulations, e.g, density functional theory (DFT). However, the design spaces are sometimes too large and intractable to sample completely. This results in a critical question that is how to evaluate the confidence and robustness of the prediction. In this paper, we propose an efficient approach to estimate uncertainty in deep learning using a single forward pass and then apply it for robust prediction of the total energy in crystal lattice structures. Our approach is built upon the deep kernel learning (DKL) that originally introduces to leverage the expressiveness of deep neural networks as input with a probabilistic prediction of Gaussian processes (GPs) as output. Existing DKL methods have difficulties in the accuracy of predictive uncertainty, training stability, and scaling to large datasets, which lead to significant barriers in real-world applications. We propose to address these challenges by using an inducing point approximate GP in feature space combined with spectral normalization as a regularization. We finally demonstrate our robust performance on an artificial example and a real-world application from materials chemistry.

Bi, Sirui↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the Sensitivity of Pourbaix Diagrams to Computational Protocols: Electrochemical Stability of Ni Oxides as a Case Study

Pourbaix diagrams stand as a useful tool in assessing and visualizing materials’ electrochemical stability and are widely used for electrocatalyst design. However, their reliability hinges on the accuracy of the chemical potentials of involved phases, which may bear uncertainties and can be significantly impacted by decision-making steps in the computational protocol. Here, this study introduces a robust sensitivity analysis framework, exemplified through a detailed examination of the computational Pourbaix diagram of Ni, the oxides of which are used as high-activity and cost-friendly catalysts for many electrochemical reactions. Quantities of interest derived from the Pourbaix diagram include the appearance and stability domain of the catalytically active Ni oxide phases along with the onset electrochemical potentials of phase transitions. These metrics can guide the design of operational conditions for Ni oxide electrocatalysts. We find that the employed DFT exchange-correlation functional has the most significant influence on the computed Pourbaix diagram. Uncertainties on crystal structures, along with their related ab initio energetics, are also found to affect the size of the phase stability domain. Higher-order coupling among input parameters is found to play a crucial role in influencing the appearance and distribution of Ni phases in the diagram. Our findings suggest a need to consider variations and uncertainties associated with the computational procedures on predicted Pourbaix diagrams for materials design.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Covariant density functional theory input for r-process simulations in actinides and superheavy nuclei: The ground state and fission properties

A systematic investigation of the ground-state and fission properties of even-even actinides and superheavy nuclei with Z = 90–120 from the two-proton up to two-neutron drip lines with proper assessment of systematic theoretical uncertainties has been performed for the first time in the framework of covariant density functional theory (CDFT). Furthermore, these results provide a necessary theoretical input for the r-process modeling in heavy nuclei and, in particular, for the study of fission cycling. Four state-of-the-art globally tested covariant energy density functionals (CEDFs), namely, DD-PC1, DD-ME2, NL3*, and PC-PK1, representing the major classes of the CDFT models are employed in the present paper. Ground-state deformations, binding energies, two-neutron separation energies, α-decay Q α values and half-lives, and the heights of fission barriers have been calculated for all these nuclei. Theoretical uncertainties in these physical observables and their evolution as a function of proton and neutron numbers have been quantified and their major sources have been identified. Spherical shell closures at Z = 120, N = 184, and N = 258 and the structure of the single-particle (especially, high-j) states in their vicinities as well as nuclear matter properties of employed CEDFs are two major factors contributing to theoretical uncertainties. However, different physical observables are affected in a different way by these two factors. For example, theoretical uncertainties in calculated ground-state deformations are affected mostly by the former factor, while theoretical uncertainties in fission barriers depend on both of these factors.

190 ≤ A ≤ 219↗
DOE OSTI2024

Short-Term Load Forecasting Considering EV Charging Loads with Prediction Interval Evaluation

Short-term load forecasting plays a critical role in power system planning and operation. Along with the electrification of various loads, electricity demands are becoming increasingly hard to predict. Notably, the recent rise in electric vehicles (EVs) has further contributed to this unpredictability. To address this issue, this paper proposes a probabilistic load forecasting strategy utilizing Gaussian process regression, structured in a day-ahead manner. While many works focus on deterministic prediction, probabilistic forecasting offers additional insights into variability and uncertainty, enabling more flexible and reliable operation for power systems. To enhance the accuracy of the load forecasting model, the inputs include features related to EV charging habits as well as commonly used weather information. The load forecasting results are evaluated using various metrics, including conventional ones that assess the accuracy of point forecasts, as well as additional metrics that test the reliability of prediction intervals. The proposed load forecasting method is finally tested on real residential power consumption data and EV charging data sampled from real-world sources. The results prove that the new features can greatly improve the performance of the load forecasting method.

electrical vehicle↗
DOE OSTI2024

Benchmark Calculation for BEAVRS Cycles 1 and 2 Using the SCALE 6.3/Polaris–PARCS v3.4.2 Code Package

This study performed the benchmark calculation for BEAVRS to validate the SCALE 6.3/Polaris–PARCS v3.4.2 code package with the ENDF/B-VII.1 56-group library, comparing the simulated results with the measured data. The benchmark results will be used in evaluating uncertainties of the SCALE/Polaris–PARCS code package for pressurized water reactor physics analysis for key nuclear parameters such as reactivity, control bank worth, temperature coefficients, and pin and assembly power peaking factors. This report details plant and fuel design specifications and input data for SCALE/Polaris as well as GenPMAXS and PARCS. Additionally, detailed information is provided for all the input and output files produced for the benchmark calculations. The benchmark results are summarized herein so that they can be used in evaluating uncertainties for key nuclear parameters with other benchmark results.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Processing Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties in Experimental Data From Sparse Replicate Tests of Stochastic Systems for Real-Space Model Validation

This paper presents a practical methodology for propagating and processing uncertainties associated with random measurement and estimation errors (that vary from test-to-test) and systematic measurement and estimation errors (uncertain but similar from test-to-test) in inputs and outputs of replicate tests to characterize response variability of stochastically varying test units. Also treated are test condition control variability from test-to-test and sampling uncertainty due to limited numbers of replicate tests. These aleatory variabilities and epistemic uncertainties result in uncertainty on computed statistics of output response quantities. The methodology was developed in the context of processing experimental data for “real-space” (RS) model validation comparisons against model-predicted statistics and uncertainty thereof. The methodology is flexible and sufficient for many types of experimental and data uncertainty, offering the most extensive data uncertainty quantification (UQ) treatment of any model validation method the authors are aware of. It handles both interval and probabilistic uncertainty descriptions and can be performed with relatively little computational cost through use of simple and effective dimension- and order-adaptive polynomial response surfaces in a Monte Carlo (MC) uncertainty propagation approach. A key feature of the progressively upgraded response surfaces is that they enable estimation of propagation error contributed by the surrogate model. Sensitivity analysis of the relative contributions of the various uncertainty sources to the total uncertainty of statistical estimates is also presented. Finally, the methodologies are demonstrated on real experimental validation data involving all the mentioned sources and types of error and uncertainty in five replicate tests of pressure vessels heated and pressurized to failure. Simple spreadsheet procedures are used for all processing operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

ThickBrick: optimal event selection and categorization in high energy physics. Part I. Signal discovery

We provide a prescription called ThickBrick to train optimal machine-learning-based event selectors and categorizers that maximize the statistical significance of a potential signal excess in high energy physics (HEP) experiments, as quantified by any of six different performance measures. For analyses where the signal search is performed in the distribution of some event variables, our prescription ensures that only the information complementary to those event variables is used in event selection and categorization. This eliminates a major misalignment with the physics goals of the analysis (maximizing the significance of an excess) that exists in the training of typical ML-based event selectors and categorizers. In addition, this decorrelation of event selectors from the relevant event variables prevents the background distribution from becoming peaked in the signal region as a result of event selection, thereby ameliorating the challenges imposed on signal searches by systematic uncertainties. Our event selectors (categorizers) use the output of machine-learning-based classifiers as input and apply optimal selection cutoffs (categorization thresholds) that are functions of the event variables being analyzed, as opposed to flat cutoffs (thresholds). These optimal cutoffs and thresholds are learned iteratively, using a novel approach with connections to Lloyd’s k-means clustering algorithm. We provide a public, Python implementation of our prescription, also called ThickBrick, along with usage examples.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗