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DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainties in Local Intense Precipitation Flood Modeling

In the Task 1 report for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) funded Local Intense Precipitation (LIP) Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Pilot Study, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) reviewed hydrologic and hydraulic modeling approaches for estimation of LIP flooding and their implementation in readily available simulation software packages (Prasad and Yuan 2020). NRC’s interest is in developing guidance for performing LIP PFHA at nuclear power plant (NPP) sites. This report describes the work done under Task 2 of the study that focused on describing uncertainties associated with LIP flood modeling. Two main types of uncertainties exist in LIP flood modeling: (1) aleatory uncertainties that arise from the inherent natural variability of the hydrometeorological system and (2) epistemic uncertainties that arise from the analysts’ incomplete knowledge of the hydrometeorological and site configuration. Principal sources for aleatory variability in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include precipitation (i.e., magnitude, duration, and temporal distribution of LIP events), initial conditions (e.g., soil moisture content, stormwater drainage discharge, surface storage), boundary conditions (e.g., upstream discharge, downstream water surface elevations), and long-term temporal trends (e.g., climate change). This report describes approaches used for estimating the aleatory variability in precipitation including precipitation-frequency analysis, numerical weather prediction, and stochastic weather generation. Data sources that can be used to estimate aleatory variability in initial and boundary conditions are also described. Approaches to include effects of long-term trends like those from climate change into estimation of aleatory variability are summarized. Sources of epistemic uncertainty in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include process representation (e.g., multiple approaches to represent runoff generation, stormwater drainage, and hydraulic routing), site configurations (e.g., site layout, flow features, status of temporary flood protection, blockage of drains), model resolution, and long-term temporal trends (e.g., known/planned site alterations, land-use changes at and in the vicinity of the site). The report describes alternative process representations (methods and models), particularly those implemented in the LIP flood simulation software packages reviewed in Task 1 report, and lists the associated model parameters. Approaches for estimating model parameters when surface and subsurface water exchanges occur are also described.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Analyzing Relationships Between Economic and Neighborhood-Related Social Determinants of Health and Intensive Care Unit Length of Stay for Critically Ill Children With Medical Complexity Presenting With Severe Sepsis

Objectives: Of the Social Determinants of Health (SDoH), we evaluated socioeconomic and neighborhood-related factors which may affect children with medical complexity (CMC) admitted to a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) in Shelby County, Tennessee with severe sepsis and their association with PICU length of stay (LOS). We hypothesized that census tract-level socioeconomic and neighborhood factors were associated with prolonged PICU LOS in CMC admitted with severe sepsis in the underserved community. Methods: This single-center retrospective observational study included CMC living in Shelby County, Tennessee admitted to the ICU with severe sepsis over an 18-month period. Severe sepsis CMC patients were identified using an existing algorithm incorporated into the electronic medical record at a freestanding children's hospital. SDoH information was collected and analyzed using patient records and publicly available census-tract level data, with ICU length of stay as the primary outcome. Results: 83 encounters representing 73 patients were included in the analysis. The median PICU LOS was 9.04 days (IQR 3.99–20.35). The population was 53% male with a median age of 4.1 years (IQR 1.96–12.02). There were 57 Black/African American patients (68.7%) and 85.5% had public insurance. Based on census tract-level data, about half (49.4%) of the CMC severe sepsis population lived in census tracts classified as suffering from high social vulnerability. There were no statistically significant relationships between any socioeconomic and neighborhood level factors and PICU LOS. Conclusion: Pediatric CMC severe sepsis patients admitted to the PICU do not have prolonged lengths of ICU stay related to socioeconomic and neighborhood-level SDoH at our center. A larger sample with the use of individual-level screening would need to be evaluated for associations between social determinants of health and PICU outcomes of these patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Low Intensity Fires: Lessons Learned from 2012 RxCADRE

Coupled fire-atmosphere models are increasingly being used to study low-intensity fires, such as those that are used in prescribed fire applications. Thus, the need arises to evaluate these models for their ability to accurately represent fire spread in marginal burning conditions. In this study, wind and fuel data collected during the Prescribed Fire Combustion and Atmospheric Dynamics Research Experiments (RxCADRE) fire campaign were used to generate initial and boundary conditions for coupled fire-atmosphere simulations. We present a novel method to obtain fuels representation at the model grid scale using a combination of imagery, machine learning, and field sampling. Several methods to generate wind input conditions for the model from eight different anemometer measurements are explored. We find a strong sensitivity of fire outcomes to wind inputs. This result highlights the critical need to include variable wind fields as inputs in modeling marginal fire conditions. This work highlights the complexities of comparing physics-based model results against observations, which are more acute in marginal burning conditions, where stronger sensitivities to local variability in wind and fuels drive fire outcomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Enhanced Virtual Crack Closure Technique for Stress Intensity Factor Calculation along Arbitrary Crack Fronts and the Application in Hydraulic Fracturing Simulation

The virtual crack closure technique (VCCT) is widely used for calculating energy release rates along crack fronts and modeling the propagation of cracks in solid materials. Although the VCCT formulation for smooth crack fronts has been sufficiently addressed in the literature, the application of VCCT to a nonsmoothed crack front with sharp corners warrants further investigation. In this study, we describe an enhanced VCCT to calculate energy release rates and stress intensity factors for cracks with arbitrary shapes in 3D domains discretized on structured grids. The formulations of the enhanced VCCT were developed and implemented into a multiphysics simulation environment capable of simulating crack propagation in the framework of linear elastic fracture mechanics. Comparisons with existing analytical/numerical solutions and other VCCT approaches were performed to verify the enhanced VCCT in terms of SIF calculation along nonsmoothed crack fronts. We then applied the enhanced VCCT to a hydraulically driven penny-shaped fracture problem to further demonstrate its capability to simulate nonsmoothed fracture propagation.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ecologically-Informed Precision Conservation: A framework for increasing biodiversity in intensively managed agricultural landscapes with minimal sacrifice in crop production

Conservation actions are urgently needed to tackle biodiversity loss in intensively managed agricultural landscapes. Production lands are usually heterogeneous and contain low-yield areas that can be set aside for biodiversity conservation without serious yield losses. Here, we introduce Ecologically-Informed Precision Conservation, a framework that integrates yield mapping and ecological theory to select the best areas to create new set-asides while ensuring high crop yields at the farm/landscape level. Long-term yield maps can be generated using globally available satellite data and basic information on field/farm crop yield from farmers. Ecological principles are then used to select the subset of areas with the highest potential for biodiversity conservation by prioritising those that increase connectivity, maximise habitat heterogeneity and decrease landscape grain size. Here, the created non-crop habitats can be permanent and thus ensure biodiversity support over time. In addition, agricultural management efficiency can be enhanced by improving field shapes. The framework provides the basis for a practical, user-friendly tool that informs all interested stakeholders on how to rationalise existing agricultural landscapes using already-existing farming systems and available technologies. High cost-effectiveness from an economic and conservation perspective, along with the creation of heterogeneous non-crop habitats, make our framework a promising solution to re-design agricultural landscapes.

Precision agriculture↗

DOE OSTI2023

Intensive and extensive margins of the peak load: Measuring adaptation with mixed frequency panel data

In this work we investigate the response of daily electricity peak load to daily maximum temperatures across states in Europe and India. We propose a method that decomposes short- from medium/long-run effects, retains the high frequency nature of the load-weather covariation and treats economic growth as a modulating factor. By simultaneously exploiting variation in unexpected daily weather anomalies and decade-long climatic changes in each location we decompose transitory - intensive margin - adjustments from permanent - extensive margin - adjustments. We find that the shocks over the long-run differ substantially from the short-run dynamics. Furthermore, we find evidence that per capita income modulates the adjustments over the short- and long-run. We project that in response to climate change around 2050 the peak load may increase by up to 20%-30% in Southern Europe and in several states in India, depending on the degree of warming and the evolution of socio-economic conditions. Even with a limited scope to two world regions, we identify that the structure of the economy and differences in future income growth matter in shaping the adaptation to climate change. Our decomposition allows to identify how future weather anomalies can further amplify the relative increase associated to the shift in the climate norm. Assuming that the interannual variability of maximum temperatures follows the distribution observed in the past, we find a doubling of the impacts of climate change during the summer in Europe. Uncertainty around the distribution of future weather anomalies may lead to further unexpected peak load amplifications. Our results have important policy implications for power systems’ generation capacity, transmission and storage, as we show that the challenges to accommodate the peak load in days with extreme temperatures may substantially increase already around mid-century.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Herbicide, fertilization, and planting density effects on intensively managed loblolly pine early stand development

Production forestry in the southeast US has been partially transitioned to intensively managed short rotations (~10 years), in which multiple silvicultural interventions are performed during forest development. Understanding the responses to silvicultural practices and continued refinement of site-specific recommendations is critical to sustainably maximize forest production. We evaluated the effects of silvicultural practices (herbicide, fertilization, and planting density) on growth, stand homogeneity, and above- and belowground biomass accumulation and partitioning of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) throughout early stand development (age 5 years) in the southeastern US. Five treatments with eight replications each were tested: no herbicide and no fertilization (C); herbicide only (H); herbicide and half-reduced fertilization rate (R); herbicide and full fertilization (F); and increased stand density (60+ %; 1346 vs. 2152 trees per hectare) with herbicide and full fertilization rate (D). Allometric equations generated from destructive harvests were applied to annual diameter measurements to estimate plot-level biomass and allocation. Herbicide was crucial to promote stand uniformity and increase yield (~600+ % stem biomass compared with C at age 5). Aboveground biomass was similar in R and F treatments, which was ~25% higher than in H at age 5. Increasing planting density along with multiple herbicide and fertilizer applications yielded higher biomass without compromising individual tree size (diameter and height). There was little effect of silviculture practices on allocation patterns. Our results parallel what was found for fertilization with herbicide from a number of loblolly stands under similar conditions and indicate a ~28% volume gain with fertilization during early stand development. Similarly, our results were consistent with other studies implementing similar differences in planting density and suggest a ~26% volume gain through early stand development with an initial 60% increase in planting density. Furthermore, our study helps to understand complex relationships between production and silvicultural practices during early stand development and demonstrates that silvicultural prescriptions can be optimized to increase sustainability of production forestry

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Temporal nitrogen dynamics in intensively managed loblolly pine early stand development

Forest production is strongly dependent on nutrient uptake; however, sustainable management of intensively managed plantations requires an improved understanding of this relationship when fertilization occurs frequently across short rotations. Here, we studied temporal nitrogen (N) concentration ([N]) and content (Nc) dynamics under different silvicultural practices (herbicide, fertilization, and planting density) throughout early loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) stand development (5 years). We describe relationships of [N] and Nc of different stand components (foliage, branches, stem, roots, and competing vegetation) with carbon and biomass. Our results demonstrate that [N] of perennial loblolly tissues do not respond to silvicultural practices and progressively decrease through development. While foliar [N] was most responsive to resource availability, it was not consistent across time. Controlling competing vegetation was crucial to promote the use of site resources by the crop tree and increased loblolly Nc by >500%. However, increased N uptake and expedited growth is dependent upon fertilization early in stand development. At age 5, herbicide plus reduced and full fertilization rates exhibited similar aboveground Nc, which was 32% higher than with herbicide only. Increasing planting density resulted in increased above- and belowground loblolly Nc; however, increases in Nc were not proportional with increases in planting density. Net primary productivity and N uptake were linearly related, but age/development strongly controlled N use efficiency. Our study helps to understand complex relationships between N, biomass, and silvicultural practices during early stand development and demonstrates that temporal evaluation of nutrient dynamics is crucial to better understand loblolly pine growth, carbon sequestration potential, and to inform sustainable silvicultural practices across short rotations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Soil carbon change in intensive agriculture after 25 years of conservation management

Changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen (SON) are strongly affected by land management but few long-term comparative studies have surveyed changes throughout the whole soil profile. We quantified 25-year SOC and SON changes to 1 m in 10 replicate ecosystems at an Upper Midwest, USA site. We compared four annual cropping systems in maize (Zea mays)-soybean (Glycine max)-winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) rotations, each managed differently (Conventional, No-till, Reduced input, and Biologically based); in three managed perennial systems (hybrid Poplar (Populus × euramericana), Alfalfa (Medicago sativa), and Conifer (Pinus spp.); and in three successional systems (Early, Mid- and Late succession undergoing a gradual change in species composition and structure over time). Both Reduced input and Biologically based systems included winter cover crops. Neither SOC nor SON changed significantly in the Conventional or Late successional systems over 25 years. All other systems gained SOC and SON to different degrees. SOC accrual was fastest in the Early successional system (0.8 ± 0.1 Mg C ha –1 y –1 ) followed by Alfalfa and Conifer (avg. 0.7 ± 0.1 Mg C ha –1 y –1 ), Poplar, Reduced input, and Biologically based systems (avg. 0.4 ± 0.1 Mg C ha –1 y –1 ), and Mid-successional and No-till systems (0.3 and 0.2 Mg C ha –1 y –1 , respectively). Over the most recent 12 years, rates of SOC accrual slowed in all systems except Reduced input and Mid-successional. There was no evidence of SOC loss at depth in any system, including No-till. Rates of SON accrual ranged from 64.7 to 0.8 kg N ha –1 y –1 in the order Alfalfa ≥ Early successional > Reduced input and Biologically based ≥ Poplar > No-till and Conifer > Mid-successional systems. Pyrogenic C levels in the Conventional, Early, and Late successional systems were similar despite 17 years of annual burning in the Early successional system (~ 15 % of SOC to 50 cm, on average, and ~40 % of SOC from 50 to 100 cm). Results underscore the importance of cover crops, perennial crops, and no-till options for sequestering whole profile C in intensively managed croplands.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Performance analysis of hybrid power configurations: Impact on primary energy intensity, carbon dioxide emissions, and life cycle costs

In this work, utilization of Natural gas and Hydrogen to support current and future building energy needs to offset the total electric demand while improving the grid resiliency and energy efficiency was investigated. Demand side energy management will play an important role in efficiently managing the available energy resources. Performance assessment of different power generation and energy management configurations is presented in this paper. Development of solutions in addressing grid resiliency by providing the ability to design suitable configurations for meeting individual building energy needs is discussed. Primary movers (PM) such as internal combustion engines (ICE) and fuel cells (FC) along with small scale auxiliary renewable energy source such as photovoltaics (PV) were considered. Key attributes of total carbon foot-print, life cycle costs including capital and operational expenditure, electric grid offset or peak shaving capability, thermal energy availability and its further potential to offset total electric demand, and primary energy intensity are analyzed and discussed in detail.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2021

NRG Oncology/RTOG Consensus Guidelines for Delineation of Clinical Target Volume for Intensity Modulated Pelvic Radiation Therapy in Postoperative Treatment of Endometrial and Cervical Cancer: An Update

Accurate target definition is critical for the appropriate application of radiation therapy. In 2008, the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) published an international collaborative atlas to define the clinical target volume (CTV) for intensity modulated pelvic radiation therapy in the postoperative treatment of endometrial and cervical cancer. The current project is an updated consensus of CTV definitions, with removal of all references to bony landmarks and inclusion of the para-aortic and inferior obturator nodal regions.