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DOE OSTI2024

Water use and radiation balance of miscanthus and corn on marginal land in the coastal plain region of North Carolina

Abstract Miscanthus is a perennial grass that can yield substantial amounts of biomass in land areas considered marginal. In the Coastal Plain region of North Carolina, marginal lands are typically located in coarse‐textured soils with low nutrient retention and water‐holding capacity, and high erosivity potential. Little is known about miscanthus water use under these conditions. We conducted a study to better understand the efficiency with which miscanthus uses natural resources such as water and radiant energy to produce harvestable dry biomass in comparison to corn, a typical commodity crop grown in the region. We hypothesized that under non‐limiting soil water conditions, miscanthus would have greater available energy and water use rates owing to its greater leaf area, thus leading to greater agronomic yields. Conversely, these effects would be negated under drought conditions. Our measurements showed that miscanthus intercepted more radiant energy than corn, which led to greater albedo (by 0.05), lower net radiation (by 4% or 0.4 MJ m −2 day −1 ), and lower soil heat flux (by 69% or 1.0 MJ m −2 day −1 ) than corn on average. Consequently, miscanthus had greater available energy (by 7% or 0.6 MJ m −2 day −1 ) and water use rates (by 14% or 0.5 mm day −1 ) than corn throughout the growing season on average, which partially confirmed our hypothesis. Greater water use rates and radiation interception by miscanthus did not translate to greater water‐use (1.5 g kg −1 vs. 1.6 g kg −1 ) and radiation‐use (0.9 g MJ −1 vs. 1.1 g MJ −1 ) efficiencies than corn. Compared to literature values, our data indicated that water and radiation availability were not limiting at our study site. Thus, it is likely that marginal land features present at the Coastal Plain region such as low soil fertility and high air temperatures throughout the growing season may constrain agronomic yields even if soil water and radiant energy are non‐limiting.

Carvalho, Henrique D. R.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Geospatial Diffusion for Land Cover Imperviousness Change Forecasting

Land-use and land-cover (LULC) has a significant effect on several Earth system processes. For example, impervious surfaces reduce infiltration and speed water flow, impacting regional hydrology and flood risk. While Earth System models have improved forecasting hydrologic and atmospheric processes at higher resolutions, the ability to forecast LULC change has lagged behind. In this paper, we propose a new paradigm exploiting Generative AI (GenAI) for land cover change forecasting by framing it as a data synthesis problem conditioned on historical and auxiliary data-sources. To demonstrate the feasibility of our methodology, we perform experiments where a diffusion model is trained for decadal forecasting of imperviousness change across the entire United States. We find that our model yields MAE lower than a no-change baseline for resolutions ≥ 0.7 X 0.7km2 on average, demonstrating its ability to capture and project accurate spatiotemporal patterns. Finally, we discuss future research to incorporate Earth's physical properties and enabling scenario simulations via driver variables.

Varshney, Debvrat [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000188981736)↗

DOE OSTI2020

California Natural and Working Lands Carbon and Greenhouse Gas Model (CALAND) v3.0.0

CALAND is a system of algorithms (.r files) and data developed to quantify the impacts of various suites of California State-supported land use and land management strategies on landscape carbon and greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, CH4, and optional black carbon) relative to a baseline scenario for the Draft California 2030 Natural and Working Lands Climate Change Implementation Plan (2019).

Di Vittorio, Alan↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Landing Pad System for Multicopy Gene Integration in Issatchenkia orientalis

The robust nature of the non-conventional yeast Issatchenkia orientalis allows it to grow under highly acidic conditions and therefore, has gained increasing interest in producing organic acids using a variety of carbon sources. Recently, the development of a genetic toolbox for I. orientalis, including an episomal plasmid, characterization of multiple promoters and terminators, and CRISPR-Cas9 tools, has eased the metabolic engineering efforts in I. orientalis. However, multiplex engineering is still hampered by the lack of efficient multicopy integration tools. To facilitate the construction of large, complex metabolic pathways by multiplex CRISPR-Cas9-mediated genome editing, we developed a bioinformatics pipeline to identify and prioritize genome-wide intergenic loci and characterized 47 gRNAs located in 21 intergenic regions. These loci are screened for guide RNA cutting efficiency, integration efficiency of a gene cassette, the resulting cellular fitness, and GFP expression level. We further developed a landing pad system using components from these well-characterized loci, which can aid in the integration of multiple genes using single guide RNA and multiple repair templates of the user’s choice. We have demonstrated the use of the landing pad for simultaneous integrations of 2, 3, 4, or 5 genes to the target loci with efficiencies greater than 80%. As a proof of concept, we showed how the production of 5-aminolevulinic acid can be improved by integrating five copies of genes at multiple sites in one step. We have further demonstrated the efficiency of this tool by constructing a metabolic pathway for succinic acid production by integrating five gene expression cassettes using a single guide RNA along with five different repair templates, leading to the production of 9 g/L of succinic acid in batch fermentations. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of a single gRNA-mediated CRISPR platform to build complex metabolic pathways in a non-conventional yeast. This landing pad system will be a valuable tool for the metabolic engineering of I. orientalis.

Fatma, Zia↗

DOE OSTI2023

Doppler Lidar Measurements of Wind Variability and LLJ Properties in Central Oklahoma during the August 2017 Land–Atmosphere Feedback Experiment

Abstract Low-level jets (LLJs) are an important nocturnal source of wind energy in the U.S. Great Plains. An August 2017 lidar-based field-measurement campaign [the Land–Atmosphere Feedback Experiment (LAFE)] studied LLJs over the central SGP site in Oklahoma and found nearly equal occurrences of the usual southerly jets and postfrontal northeasterly jets—typically rare during this season—for an opportunity to compare the two types of LLJs during this month. Southerly winds were stronger than the northeasterlies by more than 4 m s −1 on average, reflecting a significantly higher frequency of winds stronger than 12 m s −1 . The analysis of this dataset has been expanded to other SGP Doppler-lidar sites to quantify the variability of winds and LLJ properties between sites of different land use. Geographic variations of winds over the study area were noted: on southerly wind nights, the winds blew stronger at the highest, westernmost sites by 2 m s −1 , whereas on the northeasterly flow nights, the easternmost sites had the strongest wind speeds. Lidar measurements at 5 sites during August 2017, contrasted to the 2016–21 summertime data, revealed unusual wind and LLJ conditions. Temporal hodographs using hourly averaged winds at multiple heights revealed unorganized behavior in the turbulent stable boundary layer (SBL) below the jet nose. Above the nose, some nights showed veering qualitatively similar to inertial oscillation (IO) behavior, but at amplitudes much smaller than expected for an IO, whereas other nights showed little veering. Vertical hodographs had a linear shape in the SBL, indicating little directional shear there, and veering above, resulting in a hook-shaped hodograph with height. Significance Statement Doppler-lidar measurements at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) were used to quantify the variability of winds and low-level jet (LLJ) properties between five sites of different land use and wind regimes across this area. Knowledge of wind and LLJ structure and dynamics is important for many applications, and strong southerly LLJ winds at night are an important resource for wind energy. The analysis of multiyear (2016–21) summertime LLJ parameters provided insight into the LLJ climatology in this part of the Great Plains.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Novel Method for Diagnosing Land–Atmosphere Coupling Sensitivity in a Single-Column Model

The response of boundary layer properties and cloudiness to changes in surface evaporative fraction (EF) is investigated in a single-column model to quantify the locally coupled impact of subgrid surface variations on the atmosphere during summer. Sensitive coupling days are defined when the model atmosphere exhibits large variations across a range of EFs centered on the analyzed value. Coupling sensitivity exists as both positive feedback (cloudiness increases with EF) and negative feedback (clouds increase with decreasing EF) regimes. The positive regime manifests in shallow convection situations, which are capped by a strengthened inversion and subsidence, restricting the vertical extent of convection to just above the boundary layer. Surfaces with larger EF (greater surface latent heat flux) can inject more moisture into the vertically confined system, lowering the cloud base and an increasing cloud liquid water path (LWP). Negative feedback regimes tend to manifest when large-scale deep convection, such as from mesoscale convective systems and fronts, is advected through the domain, where convection strengthens over surfaces with a lower EF (greater surface sensible heat flux). The invigoration of these systems by the land surface leads to an increase in LWP through strengthened updrafts and stronger coupling between the boundary layer and the free atmosphere. These results apply in the absence of heterogeneity-induced mesoscale circulations, providing a one-dimensional dynamical perspective on the effect of surface heterogeneity. Finally, this study provides a framework of intermediate complexity, lying between parcel theory and high-resolution coupled land–atmosphere modeling, and therefore isolates the relevant first-order processes in land–atmosphere interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Country-level land carbon sink and its causing components by the middle of the twenty-first century

Abstract Background Countries have long been making efforts by reducing greenhouse-gas emissions to mitigate climate change. In the agreements of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, involved countries have committed to reduction targets. However, carbon (C) sink and its involving processes by natural ecosystems remain difficult to quantify. Methods Using a transient traceability framework, we estimated country-level land C sink and its causing components by 2050 simulated by 12 Earth System Models involved in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under RCP8.5. Results The top 20 countries with highest C sink have the potential to sequester 62 Pg C in total, among which, Russia, Canada, USA, China, and Brazil sequester the most. This C sink consists of four components: production-driven change, turnover-driven change, change in instantaneous C storage potential, and interaction between production-driven change and turnover-driven change. The four components account for 49.5%, 28.1%, 14.5%, and 7.9% of the land C sink, respectively. Conclusion The model-based estimates highlight that land C sink potentially offsets a substantial proportion of greenhouse-gas emissions, especially for countries where net primary production (NPP) likely increases substantially and inherent residence time elongates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Simulated Land Allocation, Nitrogen Use, and Nitrogen Loss in the Mississippi Atchafalaya River Basin for Various RFS2 (Renewable Fuel Standard) Policy Scenarios

Total nitrogen leaching rates were calculated over the Mississippi Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) using an integrated economic-biophysical modeling approach. Land allocation for corn production and total nitrogen application rates were calculated for crop reporting districts using the Biofuel and Environmental Policy Analysis Model (BEPAM) for 5 RFS2 policy scenarios. These were used as input in the Integrated BIosphere Simulator-Agricultural Version (Agro-IBIS) and the Terrestrial Hydrologic Model with Biogeochemistry (THMB) to calculate the nitrogen loss. Land allocation and total nitrogen application simulations were simulated for the period 2016-2030 for 303 crop reporting districts (https://www.nass.usda.gov/Data_and_Statistics/County_Data_Files/Frequently_Asked_Questions/county_list.txt). The final 2030 values are reported here. Both are stored in csv files. Units for land allocation are million ha and nitrogen application are million kg. The nitrogen leaching rates were modeled with a spatial resolution of 5' x 5' using the North American Datum of 1983 projection and stored in NetCDF files. The 30-year average is calculated over the last 30 years of the 45 years being simulated. Leaching rates are calculated in kg-N/ha.

bioenergy crops↗

DOE OSTI2023

Model Inputs, Outputs, and Scripts associated with: “Combined effects of stream hydrology and land use on basin-scale hyporheic zone denitrification in the Columbia River Basin”

This data package is associated with the publication “Combined effects of stream hydrology and land use on basin‐scale hyporheic zone denitrification in the Columbia River Basin”, published in Water Resource Research (Son et al.2022) available at https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR031131. This data package includes the key model inputs/outputs of the river corridor model for the Columbia River Basin (CRB) and the model source codes used in the manuscript. The model is a carbon-nitrogen-coupled river corridor model (RCM), and the model is used to quantify hyporheic zone (HZ) denitrification at the NHDPLUS stream reach scales. The RCM used in this study combines empirical substrate models derived from observations and three microbially driven reactions, including two-step denitrification and aerobic respiration, are considered within the HZ. The key input data of the model are exchange flux, residence time, and stream solute (dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved oxygen (DO), and nitrate concentrations). These inputs are constant over time and represent long-term averaged values. This study uses the RCM to explore the spatial patterns of HZ denitrification across reaches with different sizes and land use in the CRB. Our main objective is to use the RCM as a virtual reality model, and the machine-learning models as surrogates that encapsulate the complexities of the physics-based model while identifying the importance of different variables that are not evident in the model conceptualization. We do not include a direct comparison of the modeled HZ denitrification and measurements; however, the RCM can capture the overall spatial patterns of the HZ denitrification because the model inputs and its reaction networks are based on well-established theory and a physical-based model. The combination of the model-based predictions and a machine-learning approach (e.g., random forest) is used to improve our understanding of what variables of the model are associated with spatial patterns of the modeled denitrification across reaches with different sizes and land uses, and to develop a proxy model using measurable variables to reproduce the simulated patterns.This dataset contains five folders: (1) model_inputs, (2) model_outputs, (3) Rscripts, (4) figures, and (5) model_codes. It also contains a readme, file level metadata (FLMD), and data dictionary (dd). Please see the FLMD for a list of all the files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. The model_inputs folder contains the model inputs used to drive the model simulations. The model_outputs folder contains key model output files from the river corridor model. The Rscripts folder contains the Rscripts for pre- and post- processing model results. The figures folder contains the raw figures associated with the manuscript. The model_codes folder includes key model source codes/input files. All files are .jpg, .jpeg, .out, .e, .od, .dat, .sub, .F90, .0, .R, .sbx, .cpg, .sbn, .shx, .shp, .dbf, .prj, .tfw, .tif, .xml, .pdf, or .csv.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-EDN Eden Landing Ecological Reserve

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-EDN Eden Landing Ecological Reserve. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-EDN Eden Landing Ecological Reserve produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - This tower located at Eden Landing Ecological Reserve, a 6400 acres reserve with diked marsh and newly (10 year old) restored salt ponds, managed by the California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) in the San Francisco Bay.

Oikawa, Patty↗

DOE OSTI2026

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-xLE NEON Lenoir Landing (LENO)

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-xLE NEON Lenoir Landing (LENO). This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-xLE NEON Lenoir Landing (LENO) produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - This terrestrial field site is located in a hardwood bottomland with seasonal flooding each spring located in southwest Alabama. The meteorological/flux tower and tower sampling plots are located at Lenoir Landing and the distributed plots are located approximately 5 km south of the tower at Choctaw National Wildlife Refuge. The ecosystem at LENO is dominated by closed-canopy pine-oak mixed forest with a developed understory, and also includes a small fraction of meadows, wetlands, and smaller water bodies. Dominant plant species include American sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua), American hornbeam (Carpinus caroliniana), and loblolly pine (Pinus taeda). Choctaw National Wildlife Refuge also provides a protected wintering area for waterfowl and wood duck brood habitat. This site is colocated with the Lower Tombigbee river aquatic site.

Network), NEON (National Ecological Observatory [N↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development of Explainable, Knowledge-Guided AI Models to Enhance the E3SM Land Model Development and Uncertainty Quantification

Focal Area(s): (2)Predictive modeling using AI techniques and AI-derived model components; use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models. (3) Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge- guided AI. Science Challenge: The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is a fully coupled, state-of-the-science Earth system model that uses code optimized for DOE's advanced computers to address the most critical scientific questions facing our nation and society (Golaz et al., 2019). The E3SM Land model (ELM) is designed to understand how the changes in terrestrial land surfaces will interact with other Earth system components and has been used to understand hydrologic cycles, biogeophysics, and ecosystem dynamics. In spite of great successes, the ELM has several known issues that restrain rapid improvements. For example, the ELM uses equilibrium models to simulate dynamic land-climate interactions and it requires long model spin-up time to identify suitable initial conditions for transient simulations. The ELM lacks built-in uncertainty mechanisms that can improve the robustness of model predictions. The ELM is a holistic, deterministic model system with a rigid design, and in many situations, it is hard to modify the ELM system to incorporate new theory/hypothesis and new data across scales to address emerging science problems (such as predicting the impacts of water cycle extremes). In addition, The ELM is technically optimized for traditional CPU-centric computers and it cannot fully utilize the current and incoming leadership computers for model simulations and uncertainty quantification (UQ). The success of artificial intelligence (AI) has inspired scientists to use AI models to discover intrinsic features from simulation data (Chattopadhyay et al., 2020) and observational data (Reichstein et al., 2019) to gain further process understanding of Earth science problems. However, autonomous AI model training through deep learning usually requires a huge amount of annotated data. To overcome the limitations from the data and computing resources, knowledge-guided AI models are necessary where human-knowledge is ingested in model construction (Banino et al., 2018) and training process (Silver et al., 2016) for efficient learning. Herein, we present a new way that leverages the process understanding from the ELM to guide AI model development for the ELM enhancement and UQ. We hope this study can inspire further Earth and environmental system model developments and transformations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Land Surface Modeling 2.0 for agricultural climate change impact assessments

Focus Area: This white paper addresses DOE AI4ESP focus area #2 by providing a sketch blueprint for a next generation, hybrid AI/process-based global Land Surface Modeling (LSM) framework to improve projections of climate change impacts on the land surface system including agriculture and the hydrological cycle. Science Challenge: Climate change impacts on agriculture are highly uncertain: -50% to +150% global production changes for major grains under high-end climate change, for example. The core challenge in land surface system predictability is the large gap between the scale at which the relevant biological processes act and the scale at which the risks need to be assessed. Conventional empirical and process-based modeling approaches are insufficient. A new multi-scale modeling paradigm which employs AI/ML to learn from new streams of remote sensing data and targeted ’gene-to-global’ simulations is needed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

DOE Early Career Award # DE-SC0012152: Understanding the Roles of Cloud Microphysics and Land Surface Coupling Feedbacks in Multi-Scale Predictions of Central US Summer Hydroclimate (Final Report)

This summarizes technical highlights from the DOE Early Career Project entitled “Understanding the Roles of Cloud Microphysics and Land Surface Coupling Feedbacks in Multi-Scale Predictions of Central US Summer Hydroclimate” led by PI Mike Pritchard at the University of California. The project’s original aims were to investigate trade-offs of cloud superparameterization such as the effects of microphysical assumptions on mesoscale convective systems (Section I) and the representation of land-atmosphere coupling under explicit convection (Section II). Under the same broader theme of water cycle dynamics, superparameterization, and land interaction, the project evolved to further investigate the climate dynamics of irrigation, vegetation and streamflow (Section III), the dynamics of the Madden- Julian Oscillation (Section IV), as well as the use of modern machine learning to replace traditional sub grid approaches for climate simulation (Section V). Twenty peer-reviewed journal publications were produced as a result of this project (Section VI).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Coupling Noah-Multiparameterization land-surface Model with Energy Research and Forecasting Model

The Energy Research and Forecasting (ERF) model is a high-performance atmospheric model built on the AMReX adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) framework, enabling efficient simulations on heterogeneous computing platforms that combine multicore processors with hardware accelerators. To support land–atmosphere interactions within ERF’s AMR-based environment, a land-surface model must be capable of operating directly on hierarchically refined meshes. In this work, we present a methodology for coupling the Fortran-based Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) land-surface model with ERF’s C++ codebase. Rather than rewriting Noah-MP, we construct a Fortran–C interoperability layer using CodeScribe, a tool that leverages large language models (LLMs) to automate the generation of interface code. CodeScribe applies structured prompting techniques to generate bindings that support efficient data exchange and function calls between ERF and Noah-MP. The coupling framework also incorporates AMR-aware data handling strategies, allowing NoahMP to operate seamlessly within ERF’s hierarchical mesh structure. This work provides a structured approach for integrating legacy Fortran models into modern C++-based modeling systems using LLM-assisted code generation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Land-Surface Temperature Transitions at the Bankhead National Forest (LASTT-BNF) Field Campaign Report

Land surface types that are common in the Southeast United States (e.g., forests, agriculture, urban) can play key roles in the regulation of surface-atmosphere energy exchange and boundary-layer evolution in the region (Hinkle et al. 2024). Heterogeneity in these land-surface types and associated emissivities can drive strong transitions in land surface temperature (LST), which is an important component of the surface energy balance. Within the forested canopy surrounding the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility’s field deployment at the Bankhead National Forest (BNF) in Alabama main site (M1) (Kuang et al. 2026), the different components of the vegetation and ground surface can create strong gradients in surface temperature that can influence the canopy thermal environment and vegetative function (e.g., stress, transpiration), both of which can have important, yet poorly characterized, controls on lower atmospheric processes (e.g., thermal turbulence, secondary circulations).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A machine learning approach to emulation and biophysical parameter estimation with the Community Land Model, version 5

Abstract. Land models are essential tools for understanding and predicting terrestrial processes and climate–carbon feedbacks in the Earth system, but uncertainties in their future projections are poorly understood. Improvements in physical process realism and the representation of human influence arguably make models more comparable to reality but also increase the degrees of freedom in model configuration, leading to increased parametric uncertainty in projections. In this work we design and implement a machine learning approach to globally calibrate a subset of the parameters of the Community Land Model, version 5 (CLM5) to observations of carbon and water fluxes. We focus on parameters controlling biophysical features such as surface energy balance, hydrology, and carbon uptake. We first use parameter sensitivity simulations and a combination of objective metrics including ranked global mean sensitivity to multiple output variables and non-overlapping spatial pattern responses between parameters to narrow the parameter space and determine a subset of important CLM5 biophysical parameters for further analysis. Using a perturbed parameter ensemble, we then train a series of artificial feed-forward neural networks to emulate CLM5 output given parameter values as input. We use annual mean globally aggregated spatial variability in carbon and water fluxes as our emulation and calibration targets. Validation and out-of-sample tests are used to assess the predictive skill of the networks, and we utilize permutation feature importance and partial dependence methods to better interpret the results. The trained networks are then used to estimate global optimal parameter values with greater computational efficiency than achieved by hand tuning efforts and increased spatial scale relative to previous studies optimizing at a single site. By developing this methodology, our framework can help quantify the contribution of parameter uncertainty to overall uncertainty in land model projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Carbon cycle extremes accelerate weakening of the land carbon sink in the late 21st century

Increasing surface temperature could lead to enhanced evaporation, reduced soil moisture availability, and more frequent droughts and heat waves. The spatiotemporal co-occurrence of such effects further drives extreme anomalies in vegetation productivity and net land carbon storage. However, the impacts of climate change on extremes in net biospheric production (NBP) over longer time periods are unknown. Using the percentile threshold on the probability distribution curve of NBP anomalies, we computed negative and positive extremes in NBP. Here we show that due to climate warming, about 88% of global regions will experience a larger magnitude of negative NBP extremes than positive NBP extremes toward the end of 2100, which accelerate the weakening of the land carbon sink. Our analysis indicates the frequency of negative extremes associated with declines in biospheric productivity was larger than positive extremes, especially in the tropics. While the overall impact of warming at high latitudes is expected to increase plant productivity and carbon uptake, high-temperature anomalies increasingly induce negative NBP extremes toward the end of the 21st century. Using regression analysis, we found soil moisture anomalies to be the most dominant individual driver of NBP extremes. The compound effect of hotness, dryness, and fire caused extremes at more than 50% of the total grid cells. The larger proportion of negative NBP extremes raises a concern about whether the Earth is capable of increasing vegetation production with a growing human population and rising demand for plant material for food, fiber, fuel, and building materials. The increasing proportion of negative NBP extremes highlights the consequences not only of reduction in total carbon uptake capacity but also of conversion of land to a carbon source.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗