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Pegasus (trademark) launch operations and the PegaStar integrated spacecraft bus

The Pegasus air launched space booster, which successfully flew its maiden flight on 5 Apr. 1990, provides the international satellite community with a flexible cost effective means for delivering small payloads into low Earth orbit. The vehicle's simple, robust design and horizontal integration methods ensure maximum reliability and significantly reduce launch base infrastructure requirements. The vehicle's air launched approach and ability to launch over open ocean regions provide unmatched flexibility in launch location and approach used to ensure range safety. The PegaStar integrated spacecraft bus, which complements the Pegasus launch system, can provide a turnkey means for delivering instrument and sensor packages into low Earth orbit and providing extended (5 to 10 year) on orbit operational support. Pegasus and PegaStar are described, including payload interfaces, delivery capability; integration methods, facility and ground support equipment requirements; and typical launch operations.

Mosier, Marty↗

Launch site integration of Liquid Rocket Boosters

The impacts of introducing Liquid Rocket Boosters (LRB) into the STS/KSC launch environment are identified and evaluated. Proposed ground systems configurations are presented along with a launch site requirements summary. Pre-launch processing scenarios are described and the required facility modifications and new facility requirements are analyzed. Flight vehicle design recommendations to enhance launch processing are discussed. Processing approaches to integrate LRB with existing STS launch operations are evaluated. The key features and significance of launch site transition to a new STS configuration in parallel with ongoing launch activities are enumerated.

Scott, Leland P.↗

United States launch vehicle systems

United States policy for national space launch capability provides for a balanced mix of launches, utilizing the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicles (ELVs). The current mixed fleet includes the Space Shuttle and four expendable launch vehicles - Titan, Atlas, Delta, and Scout. New small class launch vehicles, including Pegasus, are in development. In addition, studies are underway to assure that the United States has cost-effective, reliable access to space, heavy-lift launch capability, and a new manned spacecraft after the current Space Shuttle reaches the end of its operational life. This paper highlights the current capabilities of the mixed fleet and summarizes the plans for new or modified United States launch vehicles through the first decade of the next century.

Krause, Robert B.↗

Advanced transportation system study: Manned launch vehicle concepts for two way transportation system payloads to LEO. Program cost estimates document

This report describes Rockwell International's cost analysis results of manned launch vehicle concepts for two way transportation system payloads to low earth orbit during the basic and option 1 period of performance for contract NAS8-39207, advanced transportation system studies. Vehicles analyzed include the space shuttle, personnel launch system (PLS) with advanced launch system (ALS) and national launch system (NLS) boosters, foreign launch vehicles, NLS-2 derived launch vehicles, liquid rocket booster (LRB) derived launch vehicle, and cargo transfer and return vehicle (CTRV).

Duffy, James B.↗

Launch vehicle and power level impacts on electric GEO insertion

Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) has been shown to increase net geosynchronous spacecraft mass when used for station keeping and final orbit insertion. The impact of launch vehicle selection and power level on the benefits of this approach were examined for 20 and 25 kW systems launched using the Ariane 5, Atlas IIAR, Long March, Proton, and Sea Launch vehicles. Two advanced on-board propulsion technologies, 5 kW ion and Hall thruster systems, were used to establish the relative merits of the technologies and launch vehicles. GaAs solar arrays were assumed. The analysis identifies the optimal starting orbits for the SEP orbit raising/plane changing while considering the impacts of radiation degradation in the Van Allen belts, shading, power degradation, and oblateness. This use of SEP to provide part of the orbit insertion results in net mass increases of 15 - 38% and 18 - 46% for one to two month trip times, respectively, over just using SEP for 15 years of north/south station keeping. SEP technology was shown to have a greater impact on net masses of launch vehicles with higher launch latitudes when avoidance of solar array and payload degradation is desired. This greater impact of SEP could help reduce the plane changing disadvantage of high latitude launch sites. Comparison with results for 10 and 15 kW systems show clear benefits of incremental increases in SEP power level, suggesting that an evolutionary approach to high power SEP for geosynchronous spacecraft is possible.

Oleson, Steven R.↗

Reusable Launch Vehicle Technology Program

Industry/NASA Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) Technology Program efforts are underway to design, test, and develop technologies and concepts for viable commercial launch systems that also satisfy national needs at acceptable recurring costs. Significant progress has been made in understanding the technical challenges of fully reusable launch systems and the accompanying management and operational approaches for achieving a low-cost program. This paper reviews the current status of the Reusable Launch Vehicle Technology Program including the DC-XA, X-33 and X-34 flight systems and associated technology programs. It addresses the specific technologies being tested that address the technical and operability challenges of reusable launch systems including reusable cryogenic propellant tanks, composite structures, thermal protection systems, improved propulsion, and subsystem operability enhancements. The recently concluded DC-XA test program demonstrated some of these technologies in ground and flight tests. Contracts were awarded recently for both the X-33 and X-34 flight demonstrator systems. The Orbital Sciences Corporation X-34 flight test vehicle will demonstrate an air-launched reusable vehicle capable of flight to speeds of Mach 8. The Lockheed-Martin X-33 flight test vehicle will expand the test envelope for critical technologies to flight speeds of Mach 15. A propulsion program to test the X-33 linear aerospike rocket engine using a NASA SR-71 high speed aircraft as a test bed is also discussed. The paper also describes the management and operational approaches that address the challenge of new cost-effective, reusable launch vehicle systems.

Freeman, Delma C., Jr.↗

Application of Reconfigurable Avionics for the Bantam Launch Vehicle

The modern market is placing increasing pressure on launch costs. This is particularly true for small university science payloads, where the cost of the experiment itself is relatively low, and the launch frequency is potentially very high. It is the stated goal of the Bantam Program to dramatically reduce the costs of launching this class of payloads. This is a goal that will require that the avionics not only be reduced in production costs, but also in maintenance and operation costs, because the Bantam vehicle is envisioned as a reusable launch system. However, the costs of avionics is a relatively small fraction of the overall cost of launching a payload, and a simple reduction in the avionics costs will not immediately realize the necessary gains. Instead, to reduce the total system launch costs, it is also necessary to improve avionics performance. Only by reducing weight, volume, and power, while enhancing computational capability can the avionics be used to address the system-level cost reduction requirements. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is currently pursuing technology development tasks, in order to support the Bantam requirements. One technology task is to develop a low-cost, high-performance reconfigurable avionics core unit. In addition to providing low cost and high performance, the use of reconfigurability will be used to explore the options of accommodating multiple launch configurations, and addressing such areas as redundancy management, single-event upset immunity, and low maintenance. This paper will address how emerging developments in reconfigurable avionics can be used to meet these challenges.

Wallace, Shawn↗

Microwave Anisotrophy Probe Launch and Early Operations

The Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP), a follow-on to the Differential Microwave Radiometer (DMR) instrument on the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE), was launched from the Kennedy Space Center at 19:46:46 UTC on June 30, 2001. The powered flight and separation from the Delta II appeared to go as designed, with the launch placing MAP well within sigma launch dispersion and with less than 7 Nms of tip-off momentum. Because of this relatively low momentum, MAP was able to acquire the sun within only 15 minutes with a battery state of charge of 94%. After MAP's successful launch, a six week period of in-orbit checkout and orbit maneuvers followed. The dual purpose of the in-orbit checkout period was to validate the correct performance of all of MAP's systems and, from the attitude control system (ACS) point of view, to calibrate the performance of the spacecraft ACS sensors and actuators to maximize system performance. In addition to the checkout activities performed by the MAP team, the other critical activity taking place during the first six weeks after launch were a series of orbit maneuvers necessary to get the spacecraft from its launch orbit out to its desired orbit about L2, the second Earth-Sun Lagrange point. As MAP continues its standard operations, its ACS design is meeting all of its requirements to successfully complete the mission. This paper will describe the launch and early operations summarized above in greater detail, and show the performance of the attitude control and attitude determination system versus its requirements. Additionally, some of the unexpected events that occurred during this period will be discussed, including two events which dropped the spacecraft into its Safehold Mode and the presence of an "anomalous force" observed during each of the perigee orbit maneuvers that had the potential to cause these critical maneuvers to be prematurely aborted.

ODonnell, James R., Jr.↗

STS Derived Exploration Launch Operations

A key aspect of the new space exploration programs will be the approach to optimize launch operations. A STS Derived Launch Vehicle (SDLV) Program can provide a cost effective, low risk, and logical step to launch all of the elements of the exploration program. Many benefits can be gained by utilizing the synergy of a common launch site as an exploration spaceport as well as evolving the resources of the current Space Shuttle Program (SSP) to meet the challenges of the Vision for Space Exploration. In particular, the launch operation resources of the SSP can be transitioned to the exploration program and combined with the operations efficiencies of unmanned EELVs to obtain the best of both worlds, resulting in lean launch operations for crew and cargo missions of the exploration program. The SDLV Program would then not only capture the extensive human space flight launch operations knowledge, but also provide for the safe fly-out of the SSP through continuity of system critical skills, manufacturing infrastructure, and ability to maintain and attract critical skill personnel. Thus, a SDLV Program can smoothly transition resources from the SSP and meet the transportation needs to continue the voyage of discovery of the space exploration program.

Best, Joel↗

NASA Crew and Cargo Launch Vehicle Development Approach Builds on Lessons from Past and Present Missions

The United States (US) Vision for Space Exploration, announced in January 2004, outlines the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) strategic goals and objectives, including retiring the Space Shuttle and replacing it with new space transportation systems for missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. The Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) that the new human-rated Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) lofts into space early next decade will initially ferry astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS) Toward the end of the next decade, a heavy-lift Cargo Launch Vehicle (CaLV) will deliver the Earth Departure Stage (EDS) carrying the Lunar Surface Access Module (LSAM) to low-Earth orbit (LEO), where it will rendezvous with the CEV launched on the CLV and return astronauts to the Moon for the first time in over 30 years. This paper outlines how NASA is building these new space transportation systems on a foundation of legacy technical and management knowledge, using extensive experience gained from past and ongoing launch vehicle programs to maximize its design and development approach, with the objective of reducing total life cycle costs through operational efficiencies such as hardware commonality. For example, the CLV in-line configuration is composed of a 5-segment Reusable Solid Rocket Booster (RSRB), which is an upgrade of the current Space Shuttle 4- segment RSRB, and a new upper stage powered by the liquid oxygen/liquid hydrogen (LOX/LH2) J-2X engine, which is an evolution of the J-2 engine that powered the Apollo Program s Saturn V second and third stages in the 1960s and 1970s. The CaLV configuration consists of a propulsion system composed of two 5-segment RSRBs and a 33- foot core stage that will provide the LOX/LED needed for five commercially available RS-68 main engines. The J-2X also will power the EDS. The Exploration Launch Projects, managed by the Exploration Launch Office located at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, is leading the design, development, testing, and operations planning for these new space transportation systems. Utilizing a foundation of heritage hardware and management lessons learned mitigates both technical and programmatic risk. Project engineers and managers work closely with the Space Shuttle Program to transition hardware, infrastructure, and workforce assets to the new launch systems, leveraging a wealth of knowledge from Shuffle operations. In addition, NASA and its industry partners have tapped into valuable Apollo databases and are applying corporate wisdom conveyed firsthand by Apollo-era veterans of America s original Moon missions. Learning from its successes and failures, NASA employs rigorous systems engineering and systems management processes and principles in a disciplined, integrated fashion to further improve the probability of mission success.

Dumbacher, Daniel L.↗

A New Heavy-Lift Capability for Space Exploration: NASA's Ares V Cargo Launch Vehicle

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing new launch systems in preparation for the retirement of the Space Shuttle by 2010, as directed in the United States (U.S.) Vision for Space Exploration. The Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) and the Ares V heavy-lift Cargo Launch Vehicle (CaLV) systems will build upon proven, reliable hardware derived from the Apollo Saturn (1961 to 1975) and Space Shuttle (1972 to 2010) programs to deliver safe, reliable, affordable space transportation solutions. This approach leverages existing aerospace talent and a unique infrastructure, as well as the vast amount of legacy knowledge gained from almost a half-century of hard-won experience in the space enterprise. Beginning early next decade, the Ares I will launch the new Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) to the International Space Station (ISS) or to low-Earth orbit for trips to the Moon and, ultimately, Mars. Late next decade, the Ares V's Earth Departure Stage will carry larger payloads such as the lunar lander into orbit, and the Crew Exploration Vehicle will dock with it for missions to the Moon, where astronauts will explore new territories and conduct science and technology experiments. Both the Ares I and Ares V systems are being designed to support longer future trips to Mars. The Exploration Launch Projects Office, located at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, is designing, developing, testing, and evaluating both launch vehicle systems in partnership with other NASA Centers, Government agencies, and industry contractors. This paper provides top-level information regarding the genesis and evolution of the baseline configuration for the Ares V heavy-lift system. It also touches on risk-based management strategies, such as building on powerful hardware and promoting common features between the Ares I and Ares V systems to reduce technical, schedule, and cost risks, as well as development and operations costs. Finally, it gives a summary of several notable accomplishments over the past year, since the Exploration Launch Projects effort officially kicked off in October 2005, and looks ahead at work planned for 2007 and beyond.

Sumrall, John P.↗

Ares Launch Vehicles Overview: Space Access Society

America is returning to the Moon in preparation for the first human footprint on Mars, guided by the U.S. Vision for Space Exploration. This presentation will discuss NASA's mission, the reasons for returning to the Moon and going to Mars, and how NASA will accomplish that mission in ways that promote leadership in space and economic expansion on the new frontier. The primary goals of the Vision for Space Exploration are to finish the International Space Station, retire the Space Shuttle, and build the new spacecraft needed to return people to the Moon and go to Mars. The Vision commits NASA and the nation to an agenda of exploration that also includes robotic exploration and technology development, while building on lessons learned over 50 years of hard-won experience. NASA is building on common hardware, shared knowledge, and unique experience derived from the Apollo Saturn, Space Shuttle, and contemporary commercial launch vehicle programs. The journeys to the Moon and Mars will require a variety of vehicles, including the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle, which transports the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle, and the Ares V Cargo Launch Vehicle, which transports the Lunar Surface Access Module. The architecture for the lunar missions will use one launch to ferry the crew into orbit, where it will rendezvous with the Lunar Module in the Earth Departure Stage, which will then propel the combination into lunar orbit. The imperative to explore space with the combination of astronauts and robots will be the impetus for inventions such as solar power and water and waste recycling. This next chapter in NASA's history promises to write the next chapter in American history, as well. It will require this nation to provide the talent to develop tools, machines, materials, processes, technologies, and capabilities that can benefit nearly all aspects of life on Earth. Roles and responsibilities are shared between a nationwide Government and industry team. The Exploration Launch Projects Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center manages the design, development, testing, and evaluation of both vehicles and serves as lead systems integrator. A little over a year after it was chartered, the Exploration Launch Projects team is testing engine components, refining vehicle designs, performing wind tunnel tests, and building hardware for the first flight test of Ares I-X, scheduled for spring 2009. The Exploration Launch Projects team conducted the Ares I System Requirements Review (SRR) at the end of 2006. In Ares' first year, extensive trade studies and evaluations were conducted to refine the design initially recommended by the Exploration Systems Architecture Study, conceptual designs were analyzed for fitness, and the contractual framework was assembled to enable a development effort unparalleled in American space flight since the Space Shuttle. Now, the project turns its focus to the Preliminary Design Review (PDR), scheduled for 2008. Taking into consideration the findings of the SRR, the design of the Ares I is being tightened and refined to meet the safety, operability, reliability, and affordability goals outlined by the Constellation Program. The Ares V is in the early design stage, focusing its activities on requirements validation and ways to develop this heavy-lift system so that synergistic hardware commonality between it and the Ares I can reduce the operational footprint and foster sustained exploration across the decades ahead.

Cook, Steve↗

A New Heavy-Lift Capability for Space Exploration: NASA's Ares V Cargo Launch Vehicle

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing new launch systems and preparing to retire the Space Shuttle by 2010, as directed in the United States (U.S.) Vision for Space Exploration. The Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) and the Ares V heavy-lift Cargo Launch Vehicle (CaLV) systems will build upon proven, reliable hardware derived from the Apollo-Saturn and Space Shuttle programs to deliver safe, reliable, affordable space transportation solutions. This approach leverages existing aerospace talent and a unique infrastructure, as well as legacy knowledge gained from nearly 50 years' experience developing space hardware. Early next decade, the Ares I will launch the new Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) to the International Space Station (ISS) or to low-Earth orbit for trips to the Moon and, ultimately, Mars. Late next decade, the Ares V's Earth Departure Stage will carry larger payloads such as the lunar lander into orbit, and the Crew Exploration Vehicle will dock with it for missions to the Moon, where astronauts will explore new territories and conduct science and technology experiments. Both Ares I and Ares V are being designed to support longer future trips to Mars. The Exploration Launch Projects Office is designing, developing, testing, and evaluating both launch vehicle systems in partnership with other NASA Centers, Government agencies, and industry contractors. This paper provides top-level information regarding the genesis and evolution of the baseline configuration for the Ares V heavy-lift system. It also discusses riskbased, management strategies, such as building on powerful hardware and promoting common features between the Ares I and Ares V systems to reduce technical, schedule, and cost risks, as well as development and operations costs. Finally, it summarizes several notable accomplishments since October 2005, when the Exploration Launch Projects effort officially kicked off, and looks ahead at work planned for 2007 and beyond.

Sumrall, John P.↗

Preliminary Design of a Ramjet for Integration with Ground-Based Launch Assist

This viewgraph presentation reviews the preliminary design of a ramjet for integration with a ground based launch assist. The reasons for the use of ground-based launch assist and the proposed mechanism for a system are reviewed. The use of a Optimal Trajectory by Implicit Simulation (OTIS), to model the flight and comparison with an actual rocket trajectory is given. The OTIS system is reviewed, The benefits of a launch assist system are analyzed concluding that a launch assist can provide supersonic speeds thus allowing ignition of ramjet without an onboard compressor. This means a further reduction in total launch weight. The Ramjet study is reviewed next. This included a review of the ONX simulations, the verification of the ONX results with the use of Holloman Sled experiment data as derived from the Feasibility of Ramjet Engine Test Capability on The Holloman AFB Sled Track. The conclusion was that the ONX system was not sufficient to meet the needs for the modeling required. The GECAT (Graphical Engine Cycle Analysis Tool) is examined. The results of the GECAT simulations was verified with data from Stataltex and D21 flights. The Next steps are: to create a GECAT Model of a launch assist ramjet, to adjust the geometry to produce the desired thrust, and to survey the ramjet's performance over a range of Mach numbers. The assumptions and requirements of a launch assist ramjet are given, and the acceptable flight regimes are reviewed.

Sayles, Emily L.↗

Objectives and Progress on Ground Vibration Testing for the Ares Launch Vehicles

NASA has conducted dynamic tests on each of its major launch vehicles during the past 45 years. Each test has provided invaluable data to correlate and correct analytical models used to predict structural responses to differing dynamics for these vehicles. With both Saturn V and Space Shuttle, hardware changes were also required to the flight vehicles to ensure crew and vehicle safety. The Ares I IVGVT will undoubtedly provide similar valuable test data to support successful flights of the Constellation Program. The IVGVT will provide test determined natural frequencies, mode shapes and damping for the Ares I. This data will be used to support controls analysis by providing this test data to reduce uncertainty in the models. The value of this testing has been proven by past launch vehicle successes and failures. Performing dynamic testing on the Ares vehicles will provide confidence that the launch vehicles will be safe and successful in their missions. In addition, IVGVT will provide the following benefits for the Ares rockets: a) IVGVT data along with Ares development flights like Ares I-X, Ares I-Y, Ares I-X Prime, and Orion-1 or others will reduce the risk to the Orion-2 crew. IVGVT will permit anchoring the various analytical and operational models used in so many different aspects of Ares operations. b) IVGVT data will permit better understanding of the structural and GN&C margins of the spacecraft and may permit mass savings or expanded day-of-launch opportunities or fewer constraints to launch. c) Undoubtedly IVGVT will uncover some of the "unknown unknowns" so often seen in developing, launching, and flying new spacecraft vehicles and data from IVGVT may help prevent a loss of vehicle or crew. d) IVGVT also will be the first time Ares I flight-like hardware is transported, handled, rotated, mated, stacked, and integrated. e) Furthermore, handling and stacking the IVGVT launch vehicle stacks will be an opportunity to understand certain aspects of vehicle operability much better (for example, handling procedures, touch-labor time to accomplish tasks, access at interfaces, access to stage mating bolts, access to avionics boxes, access to the Interstage, GSE functionality, and many other important aspects of Ares I operability). All of these results will provide for better vehicle safety and better stewardship of national resources as NASA begins its next phase of human space exploration.

Tuma, Margaret L.↗

Ensuring Safe Exploration: Ares Launch Vehicle Integrated Vehicle Ground Vibration Testing

Ground vibration testing has been an integral tool for developing new launch vehicles throughout the space age. Several launch vehicles have been lost due to problems that would have been detected by early vibration testing, including Ariane 5, Delta III, and Falcon 1. NASA will leverage experience and testing hardware developed during the Saturn and Shuttle programs to perform ground vibration testing (GVT) on the Ares I crew launch vehicle and Ares V cargo launch vehicle stacks. NASA performed dynamic vehicle testing (DVT) for Saturn and mated vehicle ground vibration testing (MVGVT) for Shuttle at the Dynamic Test Stand (Test Stand 4550) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama, and is now modifying that facility to support Ares I integrated vehicle ground vibration testing (IVGVT) beginning in 2012. The Ares IVGVT schedule shows most of its work being completed between 2010 and 2014. Integrated 2nd Stage Ares IVGVT will begin in 2012 and IVGVT of the entire Ares launch stack will begin in 2013. The IVGVT data is needed for the human-rated Orion launch vehicle's Design Certification Review (DCR) in early 2015. During the Apollo program, GVT detected several serious design concerns, which NASA was able to address before Saturn V flew, eliminating costly failures and potential losses of mission or crew. During the late 1970s, Test Stand 4550 was modified to support the four-body structure of the Space Shuttle. Vibration testing confirmed that the vehicle's mode shapes and frequencies were better than analytical models suggested, however, the testing also identified challenges with the rate gyro assemblies, which could have created flight instability and possibly resulted in loss of the vehicle. Today, NASA has begun modifying Test Stand 4550 to accommodate Ares I, including removing platforms needed for Shuttle testing and upgrading the dynamic test facilities to characterize the mode shapes and resonant frequencies of the vehicle. The IVGVT team expects to collect important information about the new launch vehicles, greatly increasing astronaut safety as NASA prepares to explore the Moon and beyond.

Tuma, M. L.↗

Modified Universal Design Survey: Enhancing Operability of Launch Vehicle Ground Crew Worksites

Operability is a driving requirement for next generation space launch vehicles. Launch site ground operations include numerous operator tasks to prepare the vehicle for launch or to perform preflight maintenance. Ensuring that components requiring operator interaction at the launch site are designed for optimal human use is a high priority for operability. To promote operability, a Design Quality Evaluation Survey based on Universal Design framework was developed to support Human Factors Engineering (HFE) evaluation for NASA s launch vehicles. Universal Design per se is not a priority for launch vehicle processing however; applying principles of Universal Design will increase the probability of an error free and efficient design which promotes operability. The Design Quality Evaluation Survey incorporates and tailors the seven Universal Design Principles and adds new measures for Safety and Efficiency. Adapting an approach proven to measure Universal Design Performance in Product, each principle is associated with multiple performance measures which are rated with the degree to which the statement is true. The Design Quality Evaluation Survey was employed for several launch vehicle ground processing worksite analyses. The tool was found to be most useful for comparative judgments as opposed to an assessment of a single design option. It provided a useful piece of additional data when assessing possible operator interfaces or worksites for operability.

Blume, Jennifer L.↗

Statistical Analysis of Model Data for Operational Space Launch Weather Support at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The 12-km resolution North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) is used by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) to support space launch weather operations. The 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit to conduct an objective statistics-based analysis of MesoNAM output compared to wind tower mesonet observations and then develop a an operational tool to display the results. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction began running the current version of the MesoNAM in mid-August 2006. The period of record for the dataset was 1 September 2006 - 31 January 2010. The AMU evaluated MesoNAM hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours based on model initialization times of 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. The MesoNAM forecast winds, temperature and dew point were compared to the observed values of these parameters from the sensors in the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network. The data sets were stratified by model initialization time, month and onshore/offshore flow for each wind tower. Statistics computed included bias (mean difference), standard deviation of the bias, root mean square error (RMSE) and a hypothesis test for bias = O. Twelve wind towers located in close proximity to key launch complexes were used for the statistical analysis with the sensors on the towers positioned at varying heights to include 6 ft, 30 ft, 54 ft, 60 ft, 90 ft, 162 ft, 204 ft and 230 ft depending on the launch vehicle and associated weather launch commit criteria being evaluated. These twelve wind towers support activities for the Space Shuttle (launch and landing), Delta IV, Atlas V and Falcon 9 launch vehicles. For all twelve towers, the results indicate a diurnal signal in the bias of temperature (T) and weaker but discernable diurnal signal in the bias of dewpoint temperature (T(sub d)) in the MesoNAM forecasts. Also, the standard deviation of the bias and RMSE of T, T(sub d), wind speed and wind direction indicated the model error increased with the forecast period all four parameters. The hypothesis testing uses statistics to determine the probability that a given hypothesis is true. The goal of using the hypothesis test was to determine if the model bias of any of the parameters assessed throughout the model forecast period was statistically zero. For th is dataset, if this test produced a value >= -1 .96 or <= 1.96 for a data point, then the bias at that point was effectively zero and the model forecast for that point was considered to have no error. A graphical user interface (GUI) was developed so the 45 WS would have an operational tool at their disposal that would be easy to navigate among the multiple stratifications of information to include tower locations, month, model initialization times, sensor heights and onshore/offshore flow. The AMU developed the GUI using HyperText Markup Language (HTML) so the tool could be used in most popular web browsers with computers running different operating systems such as Microsoft Windows and Linux.

Bauman, William H., III↗