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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-stage heat release of multi-component fuels: Insights and implications for advanced engine operation

Multi-stage heat release (MSHR) is a unique phenomenon typically seen in lean/diluted and low- to intermediate-temperature combustion. Despite its relevance to advanced engine operation, the MSHR of multi-component fuels has barely been quantified. This study aims to characterize the MSHR of multi-component fuels in a rapid compression machine (RCM) at conditions representative of advanced combustion engines. New experimental data are first reported in the RCM at an equivalence ratio of 0.4, pressure of 60 bar and temperatures from 702 to 795 K for a research grade, multi-component gasoline surrogate, termed PACE-20. Here, experiments confirm the existence of MSHR for PACE-20 at all temperatures, and reveal the strong inhibiting effect of temperature on MSHR, where increasing temperature inhibits MSHR by suppressing first stage heat release and promoting second and third stage heat release. A detailed chemical kinetic model is also adopted to model the experiments, with good agreement observed. The response of MSHR characteristics to changes in different engine operating parameters (i.e., temperature, pressure, equivalence ratio and CO 2 dilution level) and fuel compositions (i.e., mole fraction of n-pentane, n-heptane, isooctane, cyclopentane, 1-hexene, ethanol and aromatics in PACE-20) is further evaluated via statistical analysis coupling quasi-random sampling, extensive computer experiments and high-dimensional model representation. The change in MSHR is characterized through 8 quantities of interest (QOIs), i.e., duration and extent of each heat release stage, and their standard deviations. The analysis highlights the dependence of the QOIs on the individual parameters as well as their interplays, with temperature exhibiting the strongest impact among all parameters. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that if MSHR is to be facilitated and combustion phasing is to be extended to enable engine operation at higher compression ratios, it is recommended to operate the engine at low intake temperatures, boosted intake pressures and high CO 2 dilutions (i.e., high EGR levels) with gasoline fuels containing more n-pentane and less aromatics.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of external screening on the valence and core level photoelectron spectra of monolayer W⁢S 2

Transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDs) represent an emerging class of layered materials with applications in microelectronics, optoelectronics, photonics, and catalysis. The confinement of charge carriers within the highly anisotropic, quasi-two-dimensional geometry of one-layer (1L) TMDs leads to reduced, variable dielectric screening, giving rise to a quasiparticle band gap that is highly susceptible to the surrounding dielectric environment. Here, exploiting the contrasting external dielectric environments of gold-supported and suspended 1L W⁢S 2 , we show how the electronic states of W⁢S 2 under the effective and ineffective screening environments align at a junction made within the same sheet of material. Photoelectron spectra point to the close alignment of the charge neutrality levels of W⁢S 2 in both environments, and the breakdown of rigid shifts between the valence states and core levels with the core levels shifting more than twice as much as the valence states. Furthermore, the effectively screened W⁢S 2 exhibits a valence state with the photoemission linewidth twice as large as the ineffectively screened suspended W⁢S 2 , presumably originated from the locally varying W⁢S 2 -Au distance and substrate disorders. Collectively, these findings provide key insights into the electronic behavior of W⁢S 2 and its photoemission process with the electronic states renormalized according to the external screening environments.

Dielectric properties↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying the Contributions of Aerosol- and Snow-Produced ClNO 2 through Observations and 1D Modeling

Nitryl chloride (ClNO 2 ) is a radical reservoir that forms and accumulates in the nocturnal atmospheric boundary layer influenced by combustion emissions and chloride (e.g., sea salt and road salt). Upon sunrise, ClNO 2 rapidly photolyzes to generate highly reactive chlorine radicals (Cl • ) that affect the air quality by generating secondary air pollutants. Recent studies have shown road salt aerosols and saline snowpack to be sources of ClNO 2 in the wintertime urban environment; however, the quantitative contributions of each chloride source are not known. In this study, we examine the vertically resolved contributions of aerosol particles and saline snowpack as sources of ClNO 2 by using an observationally constrained snow–atmosphere coupled one-dimensional model applied to wintertime Kalamazoo, Michigan, U.S. Model simulations show that ClNO 2 emitted from urban snowpack can be vertically transported throughout the entire atmospheric boundary layer and can be a significant source of ClNO 2 , contributing up to ~60% of the ClNO 2 budget near the surface. Here, modeled snowpack ClNO 2 emission rates were 6 (±7) times higher than the observationally derived emission rates, suggesting that not all snow chloride is available for reaction. ClNO 2 production from both aerosol particles and snow emissions are required to best simulate the observed surface-level ClNO 2 . Using the traditional bulk parameterization for ClNO 2 produced from particles significantly overestimated ClNO 2 due to the assumption of having equivalent dinitrogen pentoxide (N 2 O 5 ) uptake and chloride availability for the entire particle population. In comparison, the chemically resolved surface area-based parameterization slightly underestimated the observations and had uncertainties deriving from ClNO 2 production from residential wood burning particles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward a Robust Confirmation or Refutation of the Sterile-Neutrino Explanation of Short-Baseline Anomalies

The sterile neutrino interpretation of the LSND and MiniBooNE neutrino anomalies is currently being tested at three liquid argon detectors: MicroBooNE, SBND, and ICARUS. It has been argued that a degeneracy between 𝜈 𝜇 → 𝜈 𝑒 and 𝜈 𝑒 → 𝜈 𝑒 oscillations significantly degrades their sensitivity to sterile neutrinos. Through an independent study, we show two methods to eliminate this concern. First, we resolve this degeneracy by including external constraints on 𝜈𝑒 disappearance from the PROSPECT reactor experiment. Second, by properly analyzing the full three-dimensional parameter space, we demonstrate that the stronger-than-sensitivity exclusion from MicroBooNE alone already covers the entire 2⁢𝜎 preferred regions of MiniBooNE at the level of 2−3⁢𝜎. We show that upcoming searches at SBND and ICARUS can improve on this beyond the 4⁢𝜎 level, thereby providing a rigorous test of short-baseline anomalies.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Experimental and Computational Approach to Investigating CO 2 Uptake of Cellulose-producing Algae from Cellulosic Ethanol Production (Final Report)

This project combined experimental algal cultures with predictive quantum calculations to evaluate system-level CO 2 uptake and conversion efficiency of cellulose-producing Nannochloropsis sp. algae. Recently, Nannochloropsis sp. has garnered attention as a novel host organism for converting low-cost CO 2 produced from cellulosic ethanol fermentations into algal lipids for biodiesel production and microcrystalline cellulose as a high-value co-product. As depicted in the figure below, this project (1) optimized Nannochloropsis salina (N. salina) cultures on effluent gas produced directly from cellulosic ethanol fermentation, (2) characterized the fermentation products, quantify cellulose production, and calculate CO 2 uptake efficiency with predictive quantum calculations, (3) conducted a life cycle and techno economic analysis of the proposed integration, and (4) provided training opportunities to students attending UC Riverside.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Physiological and genomic evidence of cysteine degradation and aerobic hydrogen sulfide production in freshwater bacteria

The sulfur-containing amino acid cysteine is abundant in the environment, including in freshwater lakes. Biological cysteine degradation can result in hydrogen sulfide (H 2 S), a toxic and ecologically relevant compound that is a central player in biogeochemical cycling in aquatic environments. Here, we investigated the ecological significance of cysteine in oxic freshwater, using isolated cultures, controlled experiments, and multiomics. We screened bacterial isolates enriched from natural lake water for their ability to produce H 2 S when provided cysteine. We identified 29 isolates (Bacteroidota, Proteobacteria, and Actinobacteria) that produced H 2 S. To understand the genomic and genetic basis for cysteine degradation and H 2 S production, we further characterized three isolates using whole-genome sequencing (using a combination of short-read and long-read sequencing) and tracked cysteine and H 2 S levels over their growth ranges: Stenotrophomonas maltophilia (Gammaproteobacteria), S. bentonitica (Gammaproteobacteria), and Chryseobacterium piscium (Bacteroidota). Cysteine decreased and H 2 S increased, and all three genomes had genes involved in cysteine degradation. Finally, to assess the presence of these organisms and genes in the environment, we surveyed a 5-year time series of metagenomic data from the same isolation source (Lake Mendota, Madison, WI, USA) and identified their presence throughout the time series. Overall, our study shows that diverse isolated bacterial strains can use cysteine and produce H 2 S under oxic conditions, and we show evidence using metagenomic data that this process may occur more broadly in natural freshwater lakes. Future considerations of sulfur cycling and biogeochemistry in oxic environments should account for H 2 S production from the degradation of organosulfur compounds.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rapid estimation of photosynthetic leaf traits of tropical plants in diverse environmental conditions using reflectance spectroscopy

Tropical forests are one of the main carbon sinks on Earth, but the magnitude of CO 2 absorbed by tropical vegetation remains uncertain. Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) are commonly used to estimate the CO 2 absorbed by forests, but their performance is highly sensitive to the parameterization of processes that control leaf-level CO 2 exchange. Direct measurements of leaf respiratory and photosynthetic traits that determine vegetation CO 2 fluxes are critical, but traditional approaches are time-consuming. Reflectance spectroscopy can be a viable alternative for the estimation of these traits and, because data collection is markedly quicker than traditional gas exchange, the approach can enable the rapid assembly of large datasets. However, the application of spectroscopy to estimate photosynthetic traits across a wide range of tropical species, leaf ages and light environments has not been extensively studied. Here, we used leaf reflectance spectroscopy together with partial least-squares regression (PLSR) modeling to estimate leaf respiration ( R dark25 ), the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco ( V cmax25 ), the maximum rate of electron transport ( J max25 ), and the triose phosphate utilization rate ( T p25 ), all normalized to 25°C. We collected data from three tropical forest sites and included leaves from fifty-three species sampled at different leaf phenological stages and different leaf light environments. Our resulting spectra-trait models validated on randomly sampled data showed good predictive performance for V cmax25 , J max25 , T p25 and R dark25 (RMSE of 13, 20, 1.5 and 0.3 μmol m -2 s -1 , and R 2 of 0.74, 0.73, 0.64 and 0.58, respectively). The models showed similar performance when applied to leaves of species not included in the training dataset, illustrating that the approach is robust for capturing the main axes of trait variation in tropical species. We discuss the utility of the spectra-trait and traditional gas exchange approaches for enhancing tropical plant trait studies and improving the parameterization of TBMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Fault-tolerant resource comparison of qudit and qubit encodings for diagonal quadratic operators

Finite local Hilbert-space truncations arise naturally in quantum simulations of lattice field theories and motivate qudit encodings, but their fault-tolerant advantage over qubit encodings remains unclear. We compare the non-Clifford cost of implementing quadratic diagonal evolutions, exemplified by 𝑈 = 𝑒$^{−𝑖⁢𝑡⁢𝜙^2_𝑥}$ in a uniform field-amplitude discretization of a real scalar field, using either one logical 𝑑-level qudit or 𝑛 𝑏 = ⌈log 2⁡ 𝑑⌉ logical qubits. We analyze two standard settings: product-formula simulation and linear combination of unitaries (LCU) per block encoding, taking the resource metric to be the number of non-Clifford gates after synthesis into a discrete logical gate set. Because tight synthesis bounds for general single-qudit rotations are not known, we express the qudit constructions in terms of embedded two-level SU⁡(2) rotations and derive explicit finite-𝑑 break-even conditions for their synthesis cost; these serve as compiler targets for when qudit encodings can outperform the qubit baseline. Within the constructive models studied here, product-formula implementations would require an exponentially stronger per-primitive synthesis advantage for qudits to win asymptotically, while in the LCU setting the qubit encoding is asymptotically cheaper in 𝑑. Nevertheless, the finite-𝑑 threshold analysis identifies low-dimensional regions in which qudits can yield meaningful constant-factor savings, particularly for LCU-based implementations. As a secondary analysis of the LCU construction, we use an idealized negligible-overhead qubit-qudit code-switching model to give an absolute 𝑇-count comparison and reinterpret the savings as an allowable per-switch overhead budget.

Godwood, Samuel [Univ. of Liverpool (United Kingdo↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tunable Rapid Uptake Amino Polymer Aerogels for Direct Air Capture of Carbon Dioxide (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The Palo Alto Research Center (PARC) developed a novel CO 2 adsorbent material, and in collaboration with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), demonstrated its state-of-the-art performance for direct air capture. The target application for this technology is in direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), for which the adsorbent material provides the critical function of binding CO 2 from ambient air. At the beginning of the project, the technology concept and application were established, representing technology readiness level (TRL) 2. The hypothesis was that a microporous polymer comprising a high density of primary amines would make an exceptional adsorbent for direct air capture, and the goal of the project was to prove that hypothesis and advance the technology to TRL 3. To accomplish this, we approached the challenge from the perspective of materials synthesis optimization with the narrow focus of achieving the target material properties. This approach was successful, and we now have a synthetic procedure that results in a novel adsorbent material with the target material properties. The chemical name for the novel adsorbent material is poly(vinylamine-co-divinylbenzene) (PVAm-DVB).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simultaneous Observation of Carrier-Specific Redistribution and Coherent Lattice Dynamics in 2H-MoTe 2 with Femtosecond Core-Level Spectroscopy

In this study, we employ few-femtosecond extreme ultraviolet (XUV) transient absorption spectroscopy to reveal simultaneously the intra- and interband carrier relaxation and the light-induced structural dynamics in nanoscale thin films of layered 2H-MoTe 2 semiconductor. By interrogating the valence electronic structure via localized Te 4 d (39-46 eV) and Mo 4 p (35-38 eV) core levels, the relaxation of the photoexcited hole distribution is directly observed in real time. We obtain hole thermalization and cooling times of 15 ± 5 fs and 380 ± 90 fs, respectively, and an electron-hole recombination time of 1.5 ± 0.1 ps. Furthermore, excitations of coherent out-of-plane A 1g (5.1 THz) and in-plane E 1g (3.7 THz) lattice vibrations are visualized through oscillations in the XUV absorption spectra. By comparison to Bethe-Salpeter equation simulations, the spectral changes are mapped to real-space excited-state displacements of the lattice along the dominant A 1g coordinate. By directly and simultaneously probing the excited carrier distribution dynamics and accompanying femtosecond lattice displacement in 2H-MoTe 2 within a single experiment, our work provides a benchmark for understanding the interplay between electronic and structural dynamics in photoexcited nanomaterials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

The deep-acceptor nature of the chalcogen vacancies in 2D transition-metal dichalcogenides

Abstract Chalcogen vacancies in the semiconducting monolayer transition-metal dichalcogenides (TMDs) have frequently been invoked to explain a wide range of phenomena, including both unintentional p-type and n-type conductivity, as well as sub-band gap defect levels measured via tunneling or optical spectroscopy. These conflicting interpretations of the deep versus shallow nature of the chalcogen vacancies are due in part to shortcomings in prior first-principles calculations of defects in the semiconducting two-dimensional TMDs that have been used to explain experimental observations. Here we report results of hybrid density functional calculations for the chalcogen vacancy in a series of monolayer TMDs, correctly referencing the thermodynamic charge transition levels to the fundamental band gap (as opposed to the optical band gap). We find that the chalcogen vacancies are deep acceptors and cannot lead to n-type or p-type conductivity. Both the (0/−1) and (−1/−2) transition levels occur in the gap, leading to paramagnetic charge states S = 1 / 2 and S = 1, respectively, in a collinear-spin representation. We discuss trends in terms of the band alignments between the TMDs, which can serve as a guide to future experimental studies of vacancy behavior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tree-level Unitarity in $$ \textrm{SU}{(2)}_L\times \textrm{U}{(1)}_Y\times \textrm{U}{(1)}_{Y^{\prime }} $$ Models

Abstract In models with a U(1) gauge extension beyond the Standard Model, one can derive sum rules for the couplings of the theory that are a consequence of tree-level unitarity. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive list of coupling sum rules for a general$$ \textrm{SU}{(2)}_L\times \textrm{U}{(1)}_Y\times \textrm{U}{(1)}_{Y^{\prime }} $$ SU 2 L × U 1 Y × U 1 Y ′ gauge theory coupled to an arbitrary set of fermion and scalar multiplets. These results are of particular interest for models of dark matter that employ an extended gauge sector mediated by a new (dark)Z ′ gauge boson. For the case of a minimal extension of the Standard Model with a$$ \textrm{U}{(1)}_{Y^{\prime }} $$ U 1 Y ′ gauge boson, we clarify the definitions of the weak mixing angle and the electroweakρparameter. We demonstrate the utility of a generalizedρparameter (denoted byρ ′ ) whose definition naturally follows from the unitarity sum rules developed in this paper.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Performance Degradation of Amine-Infused Fiber Sorbents for Direct Air Capture: Mechanisms and Solutions

Sorbent stability poses significant impacts on longterm performance of direct air capture (DAC) of CO 2 and levelized cost of capture (LCOC). We report the DAC performance degradation of amine-infused fiber sorbents based on poly(ethylenimine) (PEI), mesoporous SiO 2 , and cellulose acetate (CA) over CO 2 cyclic sorption cycles in a nonoxidative environment. Infrared and nuclear magnetic resonance spectra indicate that the aminolysis reactions between CA ester moieties and PEI amine sites lead to the formation of acetamides and hence lower CO 2 affinities of the sorbents. This stability issue can be remedied by hydrolysis treatment of the CA fiber sorbents before PEI impregnation or replacing CA with poly(ether sulfone). This study underscores the importance of selecting proper support or additive materials of DAC contactors that are compatible with active species of CO 2 capture.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data and scripts associated with a manuscript investigating dissolved organic matter and microbial community linkages across seven globally distributed rivers

This data package is associated with the publication “Meta-metabolome ecology reveals that geochemistry and microbial functional potential are linked to organic matter development across seven rivers” submitted to Science of the Total Environment. This data package includes the data necessary to replicate the analyses presented within the manuscript to investigate dissolved organic matter (DOM) development across broad spatial distances and within divergent biomes. Specifically, we included the Fourier transform ion cyclotron mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) data, geochemistry data, annotated metagenomic data, and results from ecological null modeling analyses in this data package. Additionally, we included the scripts necessary to generate the figures from the manuscript. Complete metagenomic data associated with this data package can be found at the National Center for Biotechnology (NCBI) under Bioproject PRJNA946291. This dataset consists of (1) four folders; (2) a file-level metadata (flmd) file; (3) a data dictionary (dd) file; (4) a factor sheet describing samples; and (5) a readme. The FTICR Data folder contains (1) the processed Fourier transform ion cyclotron mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) data; (2) a transformation-weighted characteristics dendrogram generated from the FTICR-MS data; and (3) the script used to generate all FTICR-MS related figures. The Geochemical Data folder contains (1) the single geochemistry data file and (2) the R script responsible for generating associated figures. The Metagenomic Data folder contains (1) annotation information across different levels; (2) carbohydrate active enzyme (CAZyme) information from the dbCAN database (Yin et al., 2012); (3) phylogenetic tree data (FASTAs, alignments, and tree file); and (4) the scripts necessary to analyze all of these data and generate figures. The Null Modeling Data folder contains (1) data generated during null modeling for each river and all rivers combined and (2) the R scripts necessary to process the data. All files are .csv, .pdf, .tsv, .tre, .faa, .afa, .tree, or .R.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Selective Sorbent Design: CaS Aerogel for Rapid Remediation of Aqueous Pb (II)

Heavy metals are a persistent environmental problem due to their high toxicity, even at very low concentrations (parts per billion, ppb). The removal of such diluted heavy metals is challenging because of the competition the counterions (Ca 2+ , Na + , Mg 2+ , etc.) present in natural water bodies. The design of sorbents capable of removing ions below the action limit (15 ppb for Pb 2+ ) requires a strong driving force for selective uptake and rapid removal. In this work, we report the synthesis of porous CaS aerogels (surface area = 143.6 m 2 /g) by oxidative assembly of CaS nanoparticles and describe their use in selective Pb 2+ ion remediation from water. Despite the presence of amorphous CaCO 3 (up to 50 wt %) in the gel network, the gels demonstrated a capacity of 17.1 mmol Pb/g aerogel (3543 mg/g), and this could be augmented to 22.5 mmol Pb/g aerogel (4593 mg/g) by modifying the synthesis to reduce CaCO 3 content to ca. 15 wt %. Moreover, the selectivity of CaS aerogels toward Pb 2+ ions is high, as evidenced by little-to-no change in the distribution constant (K d ∼ 10 4 ) in the presence of competing ions (1 M) such as Na + , Mg 2+ , and Ca 2+ . During remediation with low concentrations (100 ppb) of Pb 2+ with CaS aerogels, the level of Pb 2+ dropped to 5.4 ppb (below the 15 ppb EPA limit) within 1 h with a 95.4% removal efficiency. In contrast to the CO 2 supercritically dried aerogels, lower surface area ambient dried gels (xerogels) only remove 40% of the lead ions from a 100 ppb solution, saturating within 1 h. The efficiency and rapidity of selective Pb 2+ uptake using CdS aerogels arise from a combination of a strong thermodynamic driving force for cation exchange (K eq = 2.5 × 10 27 ) and chemisorption along with favorable kinetics associated with the high surface area porous architecture. These results show that formation of high surface area metal chalcogenide aerogels by oxidative assembly to form nanocrystalline architectures, as previously demonstrated for II−VI and IV−VI semiconductors, can be extended to the more highly ionic alkaline earth sulfides.

Aerogels↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

Abstract. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 ∘C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 ∘C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 ∘C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 ∘C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dependence of Deep Convective Cell Properties on Meteorological and Aerosol Conditions during TRACER

Deep convective cells significantly influence Earth’s energy balance and water cycle. However, their accurate representation in numerical models remains challenging due to their small spatiotemporal scales and limited observational constraints. This study examines over ∼400 deep convective cells near Houston, observed by a dual-polarization C-band radar during the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) intensive observation period (June–September 2022). Cells are categorized by lifetime into short-lived (<40 min), intermediate-lived (40–80 min), and long-lived (80+ min) groups. Long-lived cells were broader (∼13.2 km at 2–4-km height) and deeper (∼11.4 km) than short-lived cells (∼6.4-km width, ∼7.31-km height). Using random forest (RF) modeling and correlation analyses, precipitable water vapor (PWV), 2–6-km lapse rate, 0–8-km bulk shear, and fine aerosol mass concentration (Mass_f) are identified as key predictors of cell lifetime. Higher PWV is associated with significantly longer convective cell lifetimes compared to the low-PWV group, particularly within low 2–6-km temperature lapse rate (LR_26km), moderate-to-higher 0–8-km bulk shear (BS_08km), and low-to-moderate Mass_f environments. RF analysis also identifies low-level (0–2 km) equivalent potential temperature, PWV, Mass_f, and surface latent heat flux as key predictors for cell width and height. Short-lived cells have higher aerosol number concentrations (500–1000-nm size range), linked to onshore wind conditions and marine aerosols; however, their low concentration suggests the sensitivity may reflect associated meteorological regimes rather than a direct aerosol effect. Long-lived cells have higher concentrations of organic and sulfate aerosols, while short-lived cells exhibit higher black carbon concentrations. These results highlight the intricate dependence of convective cell lifetimes and structure on environmental moisture, thermodynamics, wind shear, and aerosol characteristics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗