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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring the Capabilities of a Machine Learning Algorithm to Detect Space Weather-Significant Emerging Active Regions

Active regions are a source of various phenomena responsible for Space Weather disturbances; therefore, developing a technology for early warning about upcoming magnetic activity is crucial to mitigate its impact. However, observational limitations and the high nonlinearity of processes associated with the accumulation of magnetic flux and its interaction with the surrounding plasma during the emergence through the convection zone make early activity detection a challenging problem. To address these challenges, we developed a physics-driven machine learning model that allows us to detect active regions (ARs) before they become visible on the solar surface by analyzing the power spectra of acoustic oscillations observed by the SDO/HMI instrument. This study is based on a time series of Doppler shift maps of 31x31-degree areas tracked with the Carrington rotation rate for four days before and after the emergence. The Doppler shift time series are processed into the oscillation power maps for four frequency ranges and accompanied by line-of-sight magnetograms and the continuum intensity maps from SDO/HMI. The resulting data are converted into a 1D time series representing the mean temporal variations of these quantities. The redacted time series are used as input to predict AR emergence using the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) method. The training of the LSTM model is based on 40 ARs, which includes an independent analysis for each sub region that exhibits AR emergence or remains quiet. The emergence of magnetic flux (defined as a decrease of the continuum intensity) was detected with the developed LSTM algorithm from 5 to 48 hours before the reported time by NOAA. The developed model is capable of pointing to the time and location of active region formation. In this presentation, we discuss reasons that impact how early in advance the model can identify the upcoming activity and the possibility of improving the current predictive skills and steps to transition to the operational forecast.

Heliophysics↗
NASA NTRS1976

An active role for magnetic fields in solar flares

Observations of photospheric magnetic fields are reviewed to determine whether changes in such fields can be related to flare activity, assuming that magnetic fields play an active role in providing flare energy. An intimate relation between emerging fields and bright flare knots is noted, and it is shown that the activation and eruption of an H-alpha filament is indicative of a major disruption of a magnetic field just prior to a flare. Observations of twisting motions in a filament just before a flare are discussed, erupting untwisting filaments are taken as unambiguous evidence for restructuring of the magnetic fields associated with flares, and it is argued that magnetic-field changes in the midst of most flares are obvious. It is concluded that successive brightenings in a family of loops may be evidence for the spread of a magnetic-field reconnection point from one field concentration to another and that flares may well take place in regions of field-line reconnection. This latter conclusion is illustrated using an empirical flare model that involves field-line reconnection, filament activation, and emerging magnetic flux.

Rust, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Intensity variation of ELF hiss and chorus during isolated substorms

Electromagnetic ELF emissions (100-1000 Hz) observed on the polar-orbiting OGO-6 satellite within three hours of the dawn-dusk meridian consistently exhibit a predictable response to isolated substorm activity. Near dawn, the emissions intensify during the substorm and then subside following the magnetic activity; the waves are most intense at L greater than 4, exhibit considerable structure and have been primarily identified as chorus. At dusk the response is entirely different; the wave intensity falls to background levels during substorm activity but subsequently intensifies, usually reaching levels well in excess of that before the disturbance. The emissions near dusk extend to low L, are relatively featureless, and have been identified as plasmaspheric hiss. These features are interpreted in terms of changes in the drift orbits of outer-zone electrons which cyclotron resonate with ELF waves.

Thorne, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1977

A global thermospheric model based on mass spectrometer and incoherent scatter data MSIS. I - N2 density and temperature

Measurements of neutral nitrogen density from mass spectrometers on five satellites (AE-B, Ogo 6, San Marco 3, Aeros A, and AE-C) and neutral temperatures inferred from incoherent scatter measurements at four ground stations are combined to produce a model of thermospheric neutral temperatures and nitrogen densities similar to the Ogo 6 empirical model (Hedin et al., 1974). This global model is designated MSIS (mass spectrometer and incoherent scatter). The global average temperature, the annual temperature variation, lower bound density, and lower bound temperature are discussed. The data set covers the time period from the end of 1965 to mid-1975 and also a wide range of solar activities. Diurnal and semidiurnal variations in lower bound density and temperature are considered, as is magnetic activity.

Hedin, A. E.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tuning the Structural and Magnetic Properties in Mixed Cation Mn x Co 2– x P 2 S 6

The metal thiophosphates (MTP), M 2 P 2 S 6, are a versatile class of van der Waals materials, which are notable for the possibility of tuning their magnetic properties with the incorporation of different transition-metal cations. Further, they also offer opportunities to probe the independent and synergistic role of the magnetically active cation sublattice when coupled to P 2 Q 6 polyhedra. Herein, we report the structural, magnetic, and electronic properties of the series of MTPs, Mn x Co 2– x P 2 S 6 ( x = 0.25, 0.5, 1, 1.5, 1.75) synthesized by the P 2 S 5 flux method. In this work, structural and elemental analysis indicates a homogeneous stoichiometry in the Mn x Co 2– x P 2 S 6 compounds. We observe that a correlation is apparent between the intensities of specific Raman modes and Raman shifts with respect to the alloying ratio between Mn and Co. Magnetic susceptibility measurements indicate that the alloyed systems adopt an ordered antiferromagnetic (AFM) configuration with a dependence of the Néel temperature on the alloying ratio. A possible magnetic frustration behavior was observed for the composition MnCoP 2 S 6 due to magnetic moment compensation as the alloying ratio between Mn and Co approaches parity. Interestingly, mixed oxidation states of the metal cation species are also observed in Mn x Co 2– x P 2 S 6 along with a linear dependence of the work function on the alloying ratio of Mn and Co.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1990

Long-term Solar Irradiance Variability: 1984-1989 Observations

Long-term variability in the total solar irradiance has been observed in the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) solar monitor measurements. The monitors have been used to measure the irradiance from the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA-9 and NOAA-10 spacecraft platforms since October 25, 1984, January 23, 1985, and October 22, 1986, respectively. Before September 1986, the ERBS irradiance values were found to be decreasing -0.03 percent per year. This period was marked by decreasing solar magnetic activity. Between September 1986 and mid-1989, the irradiance values increased approximately 0.1 percent. The latter period was marked by increasing solar activity which was associated with the initiations of the sunspot cycle number 22 and of a new 22-year Hale solar magnetic cycle. Therefore, long-term solar-irradiance variability appears to be correlated directly with solar activity. The maximum smoothed sunspot number occurred during September 1989, according to the Sunspot Index Data Center. Therefore, the recent irradiance increasing trend should disappear during early 1990 and change into a decreasing trend if the observed irradiance variability is correlated more so with the 11-year sunspot cycle than the 22-year Hale cycle. The ERBE irradiance values are presented and compared with sunspot activity for the 1984 to 1989 period. The ERBE values are compared with those available from the Nimbus-7 and Solar Maximum Mission spacecraft experiments.

Lee, Robert B., III↗
NASA NTRS1994

HD 129333: The Sun in its infancy

HD 129333 is a remarkable young, nearby solar-type G star which offers a unique opportunity of studying the properties of the Sun at a time very shortly after in arrived on the main sequence. Its space motion suggest that it is a member of the Pleiades moving group, with an age of approximately 70 Myr; its lithium abundance is consistent with this. HD 129333 has the highest level of Ca II emission of any G star which is not a member of a close binary. Our observations in 1983 showed it to have low-amplitude (5%) light variations implying a rotation period of about 2.7 days, or about 10 times faster than the Sun. Modeling of the photometric variations on the assumption that they are due to starspots yields a spot temperature about 500 K cooler than the photosphere, and a coverage of about 6% of the stellar surface area. ROSAT observations in 1990 revealed the star to be an X-ray source, with an X-ray luminosity in the 0.2 to 2.4 keV range about 300 times that of the Sun. We have used International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) observations in conjuction with ground-based photometry to examine the magnetic activity of this star. The IUE emission-line fluxes reveal a level of chromospheric activity 3 to 20 times greater than the Sun's. The transition-region activity is 20 to 100 times that of the Sun. The activity level of HD 129333 is consistent with the Skumanich law relating activity to age, and with the rotation-activity relation, although it may be near saturation level. This star can yield valuable information about the magnetic dynamo of the young Sun, as well as about stellar dynamos in general. The 1988 IUE observations covered four phases of its rotational cycle. A phase dependence of the Mg II h and k emission flux suggests a close association of chromospheric plages with starspot regions at that time. Systematic variations in the mean brightness of HD 129333 between 1983 and 1993, and in the UV emission fluxes, indicate the presence of an activity cycle of an estimated 12 years' duration. HD 129333 is the first solar-type star other than RS CVn binaries for which luminosity variations provide evidence for a spot cycle. Unlike the Sun, which is brighter at activity maximum HD 129333 appears to be fainter when more heavily spotted. Although evolutionary models for the Sun suggest that it was about 30% less luminous at age 70 Myr, they give no information about the UV flux. Accordingly, we have used the 1988 IUE observations of HD 129333 to construct a model spectrum of the infant Sun, which can be used to provide a quantitative estimate of the UV flux in the early solar system.

Dorren, J. David↗
NASA NTRS2003

Magnetic Bearing Amplifier Output Power Filters for Flywheel Systems

Five power filters and two types of power amplifiers were tested for use with active magnetic bearings for flywheel applications. Filter topologies included low pass filters and low pass filters combined with trap filters at the PWM switching frequency. Two state and three state PWM amplifiers were compared. Each system was evaluated based on current magnitude at the switching frequency, voltage magnitude at 500 kHz, and power consumption. The base line system was a two state amplifier without a power filter. The recommended system is a three state power amplifier with a 50 kHz low pass filter and a 27 kHz trap filter. This system uses 5.57 W. It reduces the switching current by an order of magnitude and the 500 kHz voltage by two orders of magnitude. The relative power consumption varied depending on the test condition between 60 to 130 percent of the baseline.

Lebron-Velilla, Ramon C.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Response of the Earth's Magnetosphere to Changes in the Solar Wind

The solar wind couples to the magnetosphere via dynamic pressure and electric field. Pressure establishes the size and shape of the system, while the electric field transfers energy, mass, and momentum to the magnetosphere. When the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is antiparallel to the dayside magnetic field, magnetic reconnection connects the IMF to the dipole field. Solar wind transport of the newly opened field lines to the nightside creates an internal convection system. These open field lines must ultimately be closed by reconnection on the nightside. For many decades, it was thought that a magnetospheric substorm was the process for accomplishing this and that all magnetic activity was a consequence of substorms. It is now recognized that there are a variety of modes of response of the magnetosphere to the solar wind. In this paper, we briefly describe these modes and the conditions under which they occur. They include substorms, pseudo-breakups, poleward boundary intensifications (PBI), steady magnetospheric convection (SMC), sawtooth injection events, magnetic storms, high-intensity long-duration continuous AE activities (HILDCAAs), and storm-time activations. There are numerous explanations for these different phenomena, some of which do not involve magnetic reconnection. However, we speculate that it is possible to interpret each mode in terms of differences in the way magnetic reconnection occurs on the nightside.

McPherron, Robert L.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Electric field measurements across the harang discontinuity

The Harang discontinuity, the area separating the positive and negative bay regions in the midnight sector of the auroral zone, is a focal point for changes in behavior of many phenomena. Through this region the electric field rotates through the west from a basically northward field in the positive bay region to a basically southward field in the negative bay region, appearing as a reversal in a single axis measurement; 32 of these reversals have been identified in the OGO-6 data from November and December, 1969. The discontinuity is dynamic in nature, moving southward and steepening its latitudinal profile as magnetic activity is increased. As activity decreases it relaxes poleward and spreads out in latitudinal width. It occurs over several hours of magnetic local time. The boundary in the electric field data is consistent with the reversal of ground magnetic disturbances from a positive to negative bay condition. The discontinuity is present in the electric field data both during substorms and during quiet times and appears to define a pattern on which other effects can occur.

Maynard, N. C.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Electric field measurements across the Harang discontinuity

The Harang discontinuity, the area separating the positive and negative bay regions in the midnight sector of the auroral zone, is a focal point for changes in behavior of many phenomena. Through this region the electric field, in a frame corotating with the earth, rotates through the west from a basically northward field in the positive bay region to a basically southward field in the negative bay region, appearing as a reversal in a single-axis measurement of the north-south component. Thirty-two of these reversals have been identified in the Ogo 6 data from November and December 1969. The discontinuity is dynamic in nature, moving southward and steepening its latitudinal profile as magnetic activity is increased. As activity decreases, it relaxes poleward and spreads out in latitudinal width. It occurs over several hours of magnetic local time.

Maynard, N. C.↗
NASA NTRS1979

The prediction of AE, ap, and Dst at time lags between 0 and 30 hours

The magnetic activity indexes AE, ap, and Dst are correlated with approximately 35,000 hours of interplanetary plasma and magnetic field measurements acquired near the Earth (assembled by NASA/NSSDC into a composite data sat). Lag times between the indexes and solar wind parameters ranged from 0 to 30 hours. Correlations at lags less than 6 hours yield results in agreement with previous studies. At greater lags, the correlation coefficients between the solar wind parameters and AE and ap approach these parameters' autocorrelation (persistence) values. For Dst the correlation with solar wind parameters is lower than that with AE and ap in the 3 to 4 hour lag range whereas the autocorrelation of Dst is significantly higher over the entire 0 to 30 hour lag range. The implications of these differences between AE, ap, and Dst are discussed in terms of persistence of solar wind structure.

Smart, D. F.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Solar Activity Modeling: From Subgranular Dynamical Scales to the Solar Cycles

The dynamical effects of solar magnetoconvection span a wide range spatial and temporal scales that extend from the interior to the corona and from fast turbulent motions to global magnetic activity. To study the solar activity on short temporal scales (from minutes to hours), we use 3D radiative MHD simulations that allow us to investigate complex turbulent interactions that drive various phenomena, such as plasma eruptions, spontaneous formation of magnetic structures, funnel-like structures and magnetic loops in the corona, and others. In particular, we focus on multi-scale processes of energy exchange across layers of the solar interior and atmosphere, which contribute to coronal heating and eruptive dynamics. For modeling global-scale activity, we use a data assimilation approach that has demonstrated great potential for building reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of observational limitations on prediction accuracy, and we present the EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle (25) based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach for modeling and forecasting solar activity.

Kitiashvili, I. N.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Waves in Radial Gravity Using Magnetic Fluid

We are beginning laboratory experiments using magnetically active ferrofluids to study surface waves in novel geometries. Terrestrial gravity is eliminated from the dynamics, and the magnetic body force felt by ferrofluid in the presence of a magnetic field gradient is used to create a geopotential field which is a section of or an entire sphere or cylinder. New optical, electromagnetic and ultrasonic diagnostic techniques are under development to initially study capillary-gravity wave propagation and interaction in such geometries.

Ohlsen, Daniel R.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Solar Activity Modeling: From Subgranular Dynamical Scales to the Solar Cycles

Dynamical effects of solar magnetoconvection span a wide range spatial and temporal scales that extends from the interior to the corona and from fast turbulent motions to the global-Sun magnetic activity. To study the solar activity on short temporal scales (from minutes to hours), we use 3D radiative MHD simulations that allow us to investigate complex turbulent interactions that drive various phenomena, such as plasma eruptions, spontaneous formation of magnetic structures, funnel-like structures and magnetic loops in the corona, and others. In particular, we focus on multi-scale processes of energy exchange across the different layers, which contribute to the corona heating and eruptive dynamics, as well as interlinks between different layers of the solar interior and atmosphere. For modeling the global-scale activity we use the data assimilation approach that has demonstrated great potential for building reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of observational limitation on the prediction accuracy. We present the EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields, and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach for modeling and forecasting the solar activity.

Kitiashvili, I. N.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Evaluation and Improvement of Eddy Current Position Sensors in Magnetically Suspended Flywheel Systems

Eddy current position sensor performance is evaluated for use in a high-speed flywheel development system. The flywheel utilizes a five axis active magnetic bearing system. The eddy current sensors are used for position feedback for the bearing controller. Measured characteristics include sensitivity to multiple target materials and susceptibility to noise from the magnetic bearings and from sensor-to-sensor crosstalk. Improvements in axial sensor configuration and techniques for noise reduction are described.

Dever, Timothy P.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Geomagnetic response to solar activity.

The relationship between solar activity and geomagnetic variations is discussed in the light of spacecraft data obtained during the last decade. The effects of centers of solar activity responsible for producing geomagnetic activity on earth are believed to be transmitted through the solar wind, and there is usually a delay of two or three days before the onset of magnetic activity. Attempts to make a one-to-one correspondence between specific solar events and specific magnetic storms, however, are usually unsuccessful, because of the complex and indirect processes linking the two phenomena. Normally, only statistical tendencies can be shown.

Mead, G. D.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Magnetic fields in umbral atmospheres under 'similarity' configuration /Research note/.

Depth variations in the sunspot magnetic field are studied, and their influence is investigated on the magnetically active line profiles and the resulting magnetographic measurements. An attempt is made to derive a crude, though theoretically sensible magnetic model of a spot, using a simple field configuration conditioned by the 'similarity' law of Schluter and Temesvary (1958). The umbral magnetic field is computed, and the results are presented in tabular form.

Yun, H. S.↗