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At least 307 records · Page 17

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation: A Comparison of GEOS Assimilated Data with FIFE Observations - Volume 14

First ISLSCP Field Experiment (FIFE) observations have been used to validate the near-surface proper- ties of various versions of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System. The site- averaged FIFE data set extends from May 1987 through November 1989, allowing the investigation of several time scales, including the annual cycle, daily means and diurnal cycles. Furthermore, the development of the daytime convective planetary boundary layer is presented for several days. Monthly variations of the surface energy budget during the summer of 1988 demonstrate the affect of the prescribed surface soil wetness boundary conditions. GEOS data comes from the first frozen version of the assimilation system (GEOS-1 DAS) and two experimental versions of GEOS (v. 2.0 and 2.1) with substantially greater vertical resolution and other changes that influence the boundary layer. This report provides a baseline for future versions of the GEOS data assimilation system that will incorporate a state-of-the-art land surface parameterization. Several suggestions are proposed to improve the generality of future comparisons. These include the use of more diverse field experiment observations and an estimate of gridpoint heterogeneity from the new land surface parameterization.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

Comparison of Observed Surface Temperatures of 4 Vesta to the KRC Thermal Model

In this work, we will compare ob-served temperatures of the surface of Vesta using data acquired by the Dawn [1] Visible and Infrared Map-ping Spectrometer (VIR-MS) [2] during the approach phase to model results from the KRC thermal model. High thermal inertia materials, such as bedrock, resist changes in temperature while temperatures of low thermal inertia material, such as dust, respond quickly to changes in solar insolation. The surface of Vesta is expected to have low to medium thermal inertia values, with the most commonly used value being extremely low at 15 TIU [4]. There are several parameters which affect observed temperatures in addition to thermal inertia: bond albedo, slope, and surface roughness. In addition to these parameters, real surfaces are rarely uniform monoliths that can be described by a single thermal inertia value. Real surfaces are often vertically layered or are mixtures of dust and rock. For Vesta's surface, with temperature extremes ranging from 50 K to 275 K and no atmosphere, even a uniform monolithic surface may have non-uniform thermal inertia due to temperature dependent thermal conductivity.

Titus, T. N.↗

Modeling of bottom-related surface patterns imaged by synthetic aperture radar

A hydrodynamic electromagnetic model is developed in order to provide a qualitative and quantitative description of the relationship between Seasat synthetic aperture radar (SAR) signatures and the bottom topography of the ocean in the English Channel region of the North Sea. The model is based on environmental data for winds, currents, and depth changes, and the SAR parameters of frequency polarization, incidence angle, and resolution cell size. The data are used as inputs and SAR backscatter changes are predicted for individual topographic changes on the ocean floor. It is found that the model estimates of backscatter values are in good agreement with actual Seasat SAR-observed backscatter values. A comparison of the model and actual data shows agreement to be within 1.5 dB. The model is considered to be valid for only shallow water areas (less than 50 meters in depth). It is suggested that for bottom features to be visible on SAR imagery at greater depths, a moderate-to-high velocity current of at least 0.4 m/s and a moderate wind no more than 7.5 m/sec must be present.

Lyzenga, D. R.↗

Predicted and observed directional dependence of meteoroid/debris impacts on LDEF thermal blankets

The number of impacts from meteoroids and space debris particles to the various LDEF rows is calculated using ESABASE/DEBRIS, a 3-D numerical analysis tool. It is based on recent reference environment flux models and includes geometrical and directional effects. A comparison of model predictions and actual observations is made for penetrations of the thermal blankets which covered the UHCR experiment. The thermal blankets were located on all LDEF rows, except 3, 9, and 12. Because of their uniform composition and thickness, these blankets allow a direct analysis of the directional dependence of impacts and provide a test case for the latest meteoroid and debris flux models.

Drolshagen, Gerhard↗

Transport Experiments

MM II defined a series of experiments to better understand and characterize model transport and to assess the realism of this transport by comparison to observations. Measurements from aircraft, balloon, and satellite, not yet available at the time of MM I [Prather and Remsberg, 1993], provide new and stringent constraints on model transport, and address the limits of our transport modeling abilities. Simulations of the idealized tracers the age spectrum, and propagating boundary conditions, and conserved HSCT-like emissions probe the relative roles of different model transport mechanisms, while simulations of SF6 and C02 make the connection to observations. Some of the tracers are related, and transport diagnostics such as the mean age can be derived from more than one of the experiments for comparison to observations. The goals of the transport experiments are: (1) To isolate the effects of transport in models from other processes; (2) To assess model transport for realistic tracers (such as SF6 and C02) for comparison to observations; (3) To use certain idealized tracers to isolate model mechanisms and relationships to atmospheric chemical perturbations; (4) To identify strengths and weaknesses of the treatment of transport processes in the models; (5) To relate evaluated shortcomings to aspects of model formulation. The following section are included:Executive Summary, Introduction, Age Spectrum, Observation, Tropical Transport in Models, Global Mean Age in Models, Source-Transport Covariance, HSCT "ANOY" Tracer Distributions, and Summary and Conclusions.

Hall, Timothy M.↗

Gravity Wave Energetics Determined From Coincident Space-Based and Ground-Based Observations of Airglow Emissions

Significant progress was made toward the goals of this proposal in a number of areas during the covered period. Section 5.1 contains a copy of the originally proposed schedule. The tasks listed below have been accomplished: (1) Construction of space-based observing geometry gravity wave model. This model has been described in detail in the paper accompanying this report (Section 5.2). It can simulate the observing geometry of both ground-based, and orbital instruments allowing comparisons to be made between them. (2) Comparisons of relative emission intensity, temperatures, and Krassovsky's ratio for space- and ground-based observing geometries. These quantities are used in gravity wave literature to describe the effects of the waves on the airglow. (3) Rejection of Bates [1992], and Copeland [1994] chemistries for gravity wave modeling purposes. Excessive 02(A(sup 13)(Delta)) production led to overproduction of O2(b(sup 1)(Sigma)), the state responsible for the emission of O2. Atmospheric band. Attempts were made to correct for this behavior, but could not adequately compensate for this. (4) Rejection of MSX dataset due to lack of coincident data, and resolution necessary to characterize the waves. A careful search to identify coincident data revealed only four instances, with only one of those providing usable data. Two high latitude overpasses and were contaminated by auroral emissions. Of the remaining two mid-latitude coincidences, one overflight was obscured by cloud, leaving only one ten minute segment of usable data. Aside from the statistical difficulties involved in comparing measurements taken in this short period, the instrument lacks the necessary resolution to determine the vertical wavelength of the gravity wave. This means that the wave cannot be uniquely characterized from space with this dataset. Since no observed wave can be uniquely identified, model comparisons are not possible.

Source record↗

Predicted and observed directional dependence of meteoroid/debris impacts on LDEF thermal blankets

The number of impacts from meteoroids and space debris particles to the various Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) rows is calculated using ESABASE/DEBRIS, a 3-D numerical analysis tool. It is based on the latest environment flux models and includes geometrical and directional effects. A detailed comparison of model predictions and actual observations is made for impacts on the thermal blankets which covered the USCR experiment. Impact features on these blankets were studied intensively in European laboratories and hypervelocity impacts for calibration were performed. The thermal blankets were located on all LDEF rows, except 3, 9, and 12. Because of their uniform composition and thickness, these blankets allow a direct analysis of the directional dependence of impacts and provide a unique test case for the latest meteoroid and debris flux models.

Drolshagen, Gerhard↗

Evaluation of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System in the Eastern Range Dispersion Assessment System

The Applied Meteorology Unit is conducting an evaluation of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) contained within the Eastern Range Dispersion Assessment System (ERDAS). ERDAS provides emergency response guidance for operations at the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and the Kennedy Space Center in the event of an accidental hazardous material release or aborted vehicle launch. The prognostic data from RAMS is available to ERDAS for display and is used to initialize the 45th Range Safety (45 SW/SE) dispersion model. Thus, the accuracy of the 45 SW/SE dispersion model is dependent upon the accuracy of RAMS forecasts. The RAMS evaluation task consists of an objective and subjective component for the Florida warm and cool seasons of 1999-2000. The objective evaluation includes gridded and point error statistics at surface and upper-level observational sites, a comparison of the model errors to a coarser grid configuration of RAMS, and a benchmark of RAMS against the widely accepted Eta model. The warm-season subjective evaluation involves a verification of the onset and movement of the Florida east coast sea breeze and RAMS forecast precipitation. This interim report provides a summary of the RAMS objective and subjective evaluation for the 1999 Florida warm season only.

Case, Jonathan↗

Observation and Modeling of the Solar Transition Region: Multi-Spectral Solar Telescope Array Observations - 1

We report on observations of the solar atmosphere in several extreme-ultraviolet and far-ultraviolet bandpasses obtained by the Multi-Spectral Solar Telescope Array, a rocket-borne spectroheliograph, on flights in 1987, 1991, and 1994, spanning the last solar maximum. Quiet-Sun emission observed in the 171-175 Angstrom bandpass, which includes lines of O v, O VI, Fe IX, and Fe X, has been analyzed to test models of the temperatures and geometries of the structures responsible for this emission. Analyses of intensity variations above the solar limb reveal scale heights consistent with a quiet-Sun plasma temperature of 500,000 less than or equal to T (sub e) less than or equal to 800,000 K. The structures responsible for the quiet-Sun EUV emission are modeled as small quasi-static loops. We submit our models to several tests. We compare the emission our models would produce in the bandpass of our telescope to the emission we have observed. We find that the emission predicted by loop models with maximum temperatures between 700,000 and 900,000 K are consistent with our observations. We also compare the absolute flux predicted by our models in a typical upper transition region line to the flux measured by previous observers. Finally, we present a preliminary comparison of the predictions of our models with diagnostic spectral line ratios from previous observers. Intensity modulations in the quiet Sun are observed to occur on a scale comparable to the supergranular scale. We discuss the implications that a distribution of loops of the type we model here would have for heating the local network at the loops' footpoints.

Oluseyi, Hakeem M.↗

U.S. Eastern Continental Shelf Carbon Cycling (USECoS): Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Analysis

Although the oceans play a major role in the uptake of fossil fuel CO2 from the atmosphere, there is much debate about the contribution from continental shelves, since many key shelf fluxes are not yet well quantified: the exchange of carbon across the land-ocean and shelf-slope interfaces, air-sea exchange of CO2, burial, and biological processes including productivity. Our goal is to quantify these carbon fluxes along the eastern U.S. coast using models quantitatively verified by comparison to observations, and to establish a framework for predicting how these fluxes may be modified as a result of climate and land use change. Our research questions build on those addressed with previous NASA funding for the USECoS (U.S. Eastern Continental Shelf Carbon Cycling) project. We have developed a coupled biogeochemical ocean circulation model configured for this study region and have extensively evaluated this model with both in situ and remotely-sensed data. Results indicate that to further reduce uncertainties in the shelf component of the global carbon cycle, future efforts must be directed towards 1) increasing the resolution of the physical model via nesting and 2) making refinements to the biogeochemical model and quantitatively evaluating these via the assimilation of biogeochemical data (in situ and remotely-sensed). These model improvements are essential for better understanding and reducing estimates of uncertainties in current and future carbon transformations and cycling in continental shelf systems. Our approach and science questions are particularly germane to the carbon cycle science goals of the NASA Earth Science Research Program as well as the U.S. Climate Change Research Program and the North American Carbon Program. Our interdisciplinary research team consists of scientists who have expertise in the physics and biogeochemistry of the U.S. eastern continental shelf, remote-sensing data analysis and data assimilative numerical models.

Mannino, Antonio↗

Hybrid Kinetic Modeling of the Magnetosheath Impulsive Plasma Cloud Penetration Through the Magnetopause and Comparison with MMS and Other Spacecraft Observations

This research examines the plasma processes under penetration of the plasma clouds (plasmoids) across the magnetopause which is modeled as a tangential discontinuity (TD). Cases with the parallel magnetic field in both sides out of the TD are under investigation. Plasma parameters and magnetic field were chosen from the MMS mission and other spacecraft observations. The results are important for understanding the following basic space plasma physics problems: (a) plasma cloud deformation and strong phase mixing with magnetospheric plasma; (b) the transfer of mass, momentum and energy of magnetosheath and magnetic cloud plasma into magnetospheric plasmas; (c) necessary conditions for plasma cloud penetration via the magnetopause; (d) wave generation by plasma clouds inside the magnetopause.

A S Lipatov↗

Development, Validation, and Application of OSSEs at NASA-GMAO

The GMAO OSSE framework has two general classes of applications. One is to estimate the potential improvements to weather forecasting and analysis by using new proposed instruments that are not as yet built or deployed. This exploits the simulated nature of the OSSE. The other is to assess various aspects of the GMAO data assimilation system. This exploits the availability of truth provided by the OSSE. Two examples of the first class of application will be offered. One concerns deployment of constellations of passive MW sounders on small CUBESATs placed in very low orbits. The other concern is increasing the frequency of radiosonde observations to 4-times daily at all current stations. Several examples of the second class will also be presented. One is an estimation of analysis error characteristics. Another is a comparison between covariances directly determined from explicitly known background errors and those estimated by computing differences between lagged forecasts using the NMC-method prior to tuning. A third is a comparison of effects of model and observation errors on analysis and forecast skill. The last is an examination of spectra of forecast errors in a study of predictability. This latter is an ongoing study.

OSSE↗

Shock waves in a beta Doradus model

The accumulation of observational evidence and interpretation supports the conclusion that beta Doradus has running shock waves in its atmosphere. It is the work by Hutchinson with its predictions for the phases of the shock waves that prompted this author to construct a numerical hydrodynamical model for the atmosphere of beta Doradus. A short description of the procedure of the calculation follows. The results for the beta Doradus model contain a comparison with the observations. It is of particular interest to verify that the atmosphere contains multiple shock waves as suggested by Hutchinson for the ultraviolet observations.

Hill, S. J.↗

Understanding and Utilizing PBL Height Data from Multiple Observing Systems in the GEOS System

The accuracy of PBL height simulation is a key issue in many applications including forecasting near surface meteorology and air quality, however, it is a very challenging problem due to the lack of not only comprehensive, global Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) observations but also a strategy and infrastructure to utilize PBL height data from a variety of sensors. Following the designation of PBL as an incubation class observable in the 2017 Decadal Survey, the PBL Incubation Study Team Report [14] made clear that “a future global PBL observing system requires modeling and data assimilation as essential components.” There is an urgent need for global modeling development in order to utilize Program of Record (POR) observations, assess their impacts, and identify gaps to be filled by future PBL missions. Our overall objective is to develop PBL data assimilation capabilities in the NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS), focusing on PBL height from multiple observing systems, to support the assessment and use of future PBL observations. The NASA GEOS system is composed of the GEOS global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and the atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS). The PBL parameterizations include the “Lock” K-profile scheme driven by surface and cloud-top buoyancy fluxes ([4]), and the “Louis” local scheme for stable conditions based on the Richardson number ([5]). Above the mixed layer defined by the Lock surface plume, shallow cumulus convection is represented by the mass flux scheme of [9]. Additional parameterizations are summarized in [1]. The ADAS employs the hybrid 4D Ensemble- Variational (EnVar) configuration ([15]), with the ensemble providing flow-dependent background error covariance information. The resultant analysis increments are fed back to the forecast model through the 4D incremental analysis update (IAU) approach ([11]). In this study, PBL height data are being or have been generated from radiosondes, GNSS RO, satellite (CATS, CALIPSO and ICESat-2) and ground-based (MPLNET) lidars, and wind profiler. Investigations have been conducted to specify quality marks for PBL height retrievals for the data assimilation purpose. These PBL height data have different strengths and weaknesses ([2], [3], [6], [7], [8], [10]), and the satellite PBL height data provide better global coverage and complement in-situ PBL height data. Radiosondes offer high accuracy and in situ measurement of temperature and humidity profiles, but with poor spatio-temporal sampling. The in-situ observing systems like MPLNET and wind profiler provide long history of PBL height records at each station. The GNSS RO based PBL height is retrieved based on the sharp gradients in refractivity profile that represent the fine vertical structure of temperature and moisture changes above the PBL. However, not all RO refractivity profiles reach the surface depending on location and regime, and RO refractivity retrievals can be negatively biased below 2km. The PBL height data from satellite lidars provide high resolution along track PBL height retrievals, but over land they are affected by previous day convective PBL aerosol and strongly associated with mixing layer and retrievals cannot be made below thick, attenuating clouds. A successful assimilation of PBL height data requires a thorough understanding of the observing method and the retrieval algorithm for each observing system in order to use the PBL height data from multiple observing systems properly. Due to the sensitivity of PBL height data to the observing method and choice of algorithm, it is important to use a model definition appropriate for each observation type to compute differences between PBL height data and model PBL height (OmFs). The GEOS model currently includes two PBL height definitions suitable for direct comparison with observed PBL height, and additional definitions are being added in this study. Evaluation of different model PBL height definitions is underway. Meanwhile, efforts have been made in the GEOS data assimilation system to develop PBL height data assimilation capability. PBL height data can be assimilated using two different approaches. The traditional approach is to construct an observation operator and its tangent linear and adjoint, which link control variables to PBL height data from each observing system. This observation operator can be very complicated, e.g., the lidar-based PBL height observation operator includes the backscatter lidar forward observation operator, the algorithm to derive PBL height from attenuated total backscatter, interpolation, and calculations handling the mismatch between observed and model scales. The other approach is to augment PBL height to the control variable vector, and it is adopted in this study. The latter approach was also used in previous studies, e.g., the assimilation of PBL height data from radiosonde and aircraft in the Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) system for a dispersion modelling study ([13]); the PBL height assimilation study using lidar PBL height data at Greensburg, Kansas for a field campaign ([12]). The PBL height assimilation from multiple observing systems in this study allows us to take advantage of the diverse PBL height data that provide much better global coverage collectively under different meteorological conditions and with different temporal and spatial scales. As all the PBL heights are tightly coupled with the PBL thermodynamic variables, the strong correlations, which are provided by the 4D ensemble forecast, enable PBL height data from various sources to interact and combine coherently and provide additional information for PBL temperature and moisture fields. The results of comparisons among PBL height data from different sources and the evaluation of the model PBL height definitions with the PBL height data will be presented, and the PBL height data synergy strategies and preliminary results will also be discussed at the conference.

Y. Zhu↗

Cosmic Ray Propagation through the Magnetic Fields of the Galaxy with Extended Halo

In this project we perform theoretical studies of 3-dimensional cosmic ray propagation in magnetic field configurations of the Galaxy with an extended halo. We employ our newly developed Markov stochastic process methods to solve the diffusive cosmic ray transport equation. We seek to understand observations of cosmic ray spectra, composition under the constraints of the observations of diffuse gamma ray and radio emission from the Galaxy. The model parameters are directly are related to properties of our Galaxy, such as the size of the Galactic halo, particle transport in Galactic magnetic fields, distribution of interstellar gas, primary cosmic ray source distribution and their confinement in the Galaxy. The core of this investigation is the development of software for cosmic ray propagation models with the Markov stochastic process approach. Values of important model parameters for the halo diffusion model are examined in comparison with observations of cosmic ray spectra, composition and the diffuse gamma-ray background. This report summarizes our achievement in the grant period at the Florida Institute of Technology. Work at the co-investigator's institution, the University of New Hampshire, under a companion grant, will be covered in detail by a separate report.

Zhang, Ming↗

Realistic Modeling of Multi-Scale MHD Dynamics of the Solar Atmosphere

Realistic 3D radiative MHD simulations open new perspectives for understanding the turbulent dynamics of the solar surface, its coupling to the atmosphere, and the physical mechanisms of generation and transport of non-thermal energy. Traditionally, plasma eruptions and wave phenomena in the solar atmosphere are modeled by prescribing artificial driving mechanisms using magnetic or gas pressure forces that might arise from magnetic field emergence or reconnection instabilities. In contrast, our 'ab initio' simulations provide a realistic description of solar dynamics naturally driven by solar energy flow. By simulating the upper convection zone and the solar atmosphere, we can investigate in detail the physical processes of turbulent magnetoconvection, generation and amplification of magnetic fields, excitation of MHD waves, and plasma eruptions. We present recent simulation results of the multi-scale dynamics of quiet-Sun regions, and energetic effects in the atmosphere and compare with observations. For the comparisons we calculate synthetic spectro-polarimetric data to model observational data of SDO, Hinode, and New Solar Telescope.

Realistic Modeling↗