Use of Virtual Tracers in Repository Performance Assessment Modeling.
Abstract not provided.
Mariner, Paul↗
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A rigorous framework for an improved Messinger/Myers model of ice accretion under conditions of variable property and unsteady aircraft icing
We analyse the Messinger/Myers model by critically evaluating simplifying assumptions through a rigorous formulation of the rime ice accretion process. We explore the effects of both constant and variable ice density and thermal conductivity, along with the effects of sublimation from the ice surface. The effects of key factors such as droplet impact rate, ambient temperature relative to the freezing temperature and the temperature difference between the ambient air and the airfoil surface are examined. Under these varying conditions, the present rigorous formulation is used to assess the significance of unsteady effects, variable ice properties and sublimation. We observe that the Myers model performs remarkably well in certain icing situations and analyse the reasons for this strong performance. We also show that partially relaxing the model’s assumptions can lead to poorer performance. The Myers model can lead to overprediction of ice surface temperature and correspondingly underprediction of transition time under conditions of relatively weak sublimation and surface cooling. A modified Myers model is presented, which can be used to recover near-perfect results under widely varying icing conditions of relevance. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Heat and mass transfer in frost and ice’.
Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
Addressing Issues with Working Memory in Video Object Segmentation
Contemporary state-of-the-art video object segmentation (VOS) models compare incoming unannotated images to a history of image-mask relations via affinity or cross-attention to predict object masks. We refer to the internal memory state of the initial image-mask pair and past image-masks as a working memory buffer. While the current state of the art models perform very well on clean video data, their reliance on a working memory of previous frames leaves room for error. Affinity-based algorithms include the inductive bias that there is temporal continuity between consecutive frames. To account for inconsistent camera views of the desired object, working memory models need an algorithmic modification that regulates the memory updates and avoid writing irrelevant frames into working memory. A simple algorithmic change is proposed that can be applied to any existing working memory-based VOS model to improve performance on inconsistent views, such as sudden camera cuts, frame interjections, and extreme context changes. The resulting model performances show significant improvement on video data with these frame interjections over the same model without the algorithmic addition. Our contribution is a simple decision function that determines whether working memory should be updated based on the detection of sudden, extreme changes and the assumption that the object is no longer in frame. By implementing algorithmic changes, such as this, we can increase the real-world applicability of current VOS models.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
An automated and portable method for selecting an optimal GPU frequency
Power consumption poses a significant challenge in current and emerging graphics processing unit (GPU) enabled high-performance computing systems. In modern GPUs, dynamic voltage frequency scaling (DVFS) appears to be a reliable control to regulate power consumption and performance. However, the DVFS design space is large - hence, brute-force approaches are infeasible to select the optimal frequency. Furthermore, no single frequency can be universally optimal for applications with varying computational intensities. Thus, the application's complexity and the availability of a wide range of frequency settings are a challenge in selecting the optimal frequency configuration for a given GPU workload. To that end, this paper proposes a systematic approach that consists of three steps. The feature characterization study identifies the fine-grain GPU utilization metrics that influence the power consumption and execution time of a given workload. To understand the performance, power, and energy consumption behaviors of a workload across GPU's DVFS design space, we derived analytical power and performance models using the identified fine-grain features. Here, it is shown that the same set of GPU utilization metrics can estimate both the power consumption and execution time while being agnostic of changes to frequency and input sizes. Applying a power control with the single objective of reducing power may cause performance degradation, leading to more energy consumption. A multi-objective approach is proposed to select the optimal GPU DVFS configuration for a workload that reduces power consumption with negligible degradation in performance. The evaluation was conducted using SPEC ACCEL benchmarks and three real applications - NAMD LAMMPS, and LSTM on NVIDIA GV100, GA100, and AMD MI210 GPUs. On average, real applications showed 29.6% energy savings with a performance loss of 5.2% on GA100 and 22.6% energy savings with a performance loss of 4.7% on GV100. Moreover, the proposed models are portable to real applications, GPU architectures, and vendors, and require metric collection at only the default frequency rather than all supported DVFS configurations. Additionally, we conducted a comparison between our models and the GPU assembly instructions (PTX)-based static models. The results revealed a significant reduction in the average error rates, with a decrease from 19.7% to 3.1% for power models and from 29.4% to 5.2% for performance models.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Quantifying the robustness of deep multispectral segmentation models against natural perturbations and data poisoning
In overhead image segmentation tasks, including additional spectral bands beyond the traditional RGB channels can improve model performance. However, it is still unclear how incorporating this additional data impacts model robustness to adversarial attacks and natural perturbations. For adversarial robustness, the additional in-formation could improve the model’s ability to distinguish malicious inputs, or simply provide new attack avenues and vulnerabilities. For natural perturbations, the additional information could better inform model decisions and weaken perturbation effects or have no significant influence at all. In this work, we seek to characterize the performance and robustness of a multispectral (RGB and near infrared) image segmentation model subjected to adversarial attacks and natural perturbations. While existing adversarial and natural robustness research has focused primarily on digital perturbations, we prioritize on creating realistic perturbations designed with physical world conditions in mind. For adversarial robustness, we focus on data poisoning attacks whereas for natural robustness, we focus on extending ImageNet-C common corruptions for fog and snow that coherently and self-consistently perturbs the input data. Overall, we find both RGB and multispectral models are vulnerable to data poisoning attacks regardless of input or fusion architectures and that while physically-realizable natural perturbations still degrade model performance, the impact differs based on fusion architecture and input data.
Deep learning, multispectral images, multimodal fu↗
Modeled Retrofit Package Performance for Schools
This report details modeled energy performance and savings from retrofit packages in prototypical school buildings in climate zones throughout the U.S. The information herein serves as a reference for elementary and secondary schools interested in implementing retrofit packages in their facilities for energy savings as well as health and safety benefits. School models developed for simulating package performance differentiated between rural and urban environments. Simulations were run for 10 distinct climate zones covering a range of climate conditions throughout the U.S. Results include savings estimates for electricity, natural gas, CO 2 emissions, and annual utility costs for nine different retrofit packages that combine energy conservation measures, including HVAC controls and equipment upgrades, lighting efficiency upgrades, and electrification technologies such as heat pumps for space conditioning and domestic hot water. Nine additional retrofit packages were also developed for elementary schools and modeled in two climate zones. Appendix B describes the additional retrofit packages and presents savings estimates.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Single Model Characterization
A characterization framework has been developed, demonstrated and deployed for the quantification and categorization of all losses from Nominal Energy to Energy Delivered for operational photovoltaic power plants. Of equal importance is that the same characterization methods can be applied to a priori model outputs. Placing measured and modeled performance data in a single model framework allows a full quantitative, apples to apples, comparison of actual and expected performance.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Uncertainty-Guided Prediction Horizon of Phase-Resolved Ocean Wave Forecasting Under Data Sparsity: Experimental and Numerical Evaluation
Accurate short-term wave forecasting is critical for the safe and efficient operation of marine structures that rely on real-time, phase-resolved ocean wave information for control and monitoring purposes (e.g., digital twins). These systems often depend on environmental sensors (e.g., waverider buoys, wave-sensing LIDAR). Challenges arise when upstream sensor data are missing, sparse, or phase-shifted due to drift. This study investigates the performance of two machine learning models, time-series dense encoder (TiDE) and long short-term memory (LSTM), for forecasting phase-resolved ocean surface elevations under varying degrees of data degradation. We introduce the τ-trimming algorithm, which adapts the prediction horizon based on uncertainty thresholds derived from historical forecasts. Numerical wave tank (NWT) and wave basin experiments are used to benchmark model performance under short- and long-term data masking, spatially coarse sensor grids, and upstream phase shifts. Results show under a 50% probability of upstream data loss, the τ-trimmed TiDE model achieves a 46% reduction in error at the most upstream target, compared to 22% for LSTM. Furthermore, phase misalignment in upstream data introduces a near-linear increase in forecast error. Under moderate model settings, a ±3 s misalignment increases the mean absolute error by approximately 0.5 m, while the same error is accumulated at ±4 s using the more conservative approach. These findings inform the design of resilient, uncertainty-aware wave forecasting systems suited for realistic offshore sensing environments.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Recent and Planned Improvements to the System Advisor Model (SAM)
This presentation from the PV Performance Modeling Collaborative Workshop in May 2019 highlights the recent and upcoming improvements to the System Advisor Model (SAM).
ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗
Assessment of Machine Learning for Ultrasonic Nondestructive Evaluation of Alkali–Silica Reaction in Concrete
Alkali–silica reaction (ASR) is a type of material degradation in concrete structures that leads to concrete cracking and rebar corrosion, thereby reducing the material’s structural integrity and the overall structure’s lifetime and raising safety concerns. Ultrasonic nondestructive evaluation (NDE) has been proven to be a valuable technique for assessing concrete properties and monitoring ASR progression in concrete. However, the deployment and analysis of ultrasonic NDE and its data requires specialized expertise, often relying on the engineer’s subjective interpretation. With the surge in computational power, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) algorithms have become popular in automating NDE data analysis. Various industrial sectors are increasingly adopting ML algorithms for NDE data analysis with a growing emphasis on AI–assisted automation. Regulatory agencies are also preparing for this technological shift, anticipating corresponding revisions in standards. Thus, there is an urgent need to identify the capabilities and limitations of current ML technologies for the evaluation of concrete material properties and damage status. Furthermore, the effects of various factors on ML model performance must be thoroughly investigated. The study summarized herein evaluated the effectiveness of two ML models (i.e., support vector regression (SVR) and deep neural network (DNN)) in predicting concrete material damage induced by ASR based on the long-term ultrasonic monitoring data. Four distinct concrete specimens were cast with artificially induced ASR, and over a period exceeding 500 days, ultrasonic signals and expansion data were continuously collected. For the SVR model, wave velocity and 12 other wave features were extracted from the ultrasonic signals, with 6 out of 13 features selected as input for the model. Different combinations of training and testing datasets were designed to explore factors influencing prediction performance, including the range of data within training and testing sets, in addition to various signal preprocessing methodologies. These findings suggest the importance of using a training dataset with a broader data range compared with testing datasets for improved model performance alongside consistent signal preprocessing across datasets.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Machine Learning Modeling for Accelerated Battery Materials Design in the Small Data Regime
Abstract Machine learning (ML)‐based approaches to battery design are relatively new but demonstrate significant promise for accelerating the timeline for new materials discovery, process optimization, and cell lifetime prediction. Battery modeling represents an interesting and unconventional application area for ML, as datasets are often small but some degree of physical understanding of the underlying processes may exist. This review article provides discussion and analysis of several important and increasingly common questions: how ML‐based battery modeling works, how much data are required, how to judge model performance, and recommendations for building models in the small data regime. This article begins with an introduction to ML in general, highlighting several important concepts for small data applications. Previous ionic conductivity modeling efforts are discussed in depth as a case study to illustrate these modeling concepts. Finally, an overview of modeling efforts in major areas of battery design is provided and several areas for promising future efforts are identified, within the context of typical small data constraints.
Sendek, Austin D.↗
Simulation of Continental Shallow Cumulus Populations Using an Observation-Constrained Cloud-System Resolving Model
Continental shallow cumulus (ShCu) clouds observed on 30 August 2016 during the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) field campaign are simulated by using an observation-constrained cloud-system resolving model. On this day, ShCu forms over Oklahoma and southern Kansas and some of these clouds transition to deeper, precipitating convection during the afternoon. We apply a four-dimensional ensemble-variational (4DEnVar) hybrid technique in the Community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system to assimilate operational data sets and unique boundary layer measurements including a Raman lidar, radar wind profilers, radiosondes, and surface stations collected by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to ascertain how improved environmental conditions can influence forecasts of ShCu populations and the transition to deeper convection. Independent observations from aircraft, satellite, as well as ARM's remote sensors are used to evaluate model performance in different aspects. Several model experiments are conducted to identify the impact of data assimilation (DA) on the prediction of clouds evolution. The analyses indicate that ShCu populations are more accurately reproduced after DA in terms of cloud initiation time and cloud base height, which can be attributed to an improved representation of the ambient meteorological conditions and the convective boundary layer. Extending the assimilation to 18 UTC (local noon) also improved the simulation of shallow-to-deep transitions of convective clouds.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
The DOE E3SM Model Version 2: Overview of the Physical Model and Initial Model Evaluation
Abstract This work documents version two of the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). E3SMv2 is a significant evolution from its predecessor E3SMv1, resulting in a model that is nearly twice as fast and with a simulated climate that is improved in many metrics. We describe the physical climate model in its lower horizontal resolution configuration consisting of 110 km atmosphere, 165 km land, 0.5° river routing model, and an ocean and sea ice with mesh spacing varying between 60 km in the mid‐latitudes and 30 km at the equator and poles. The model performance is evaluated with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima simulations augmented with historical simulations as well as simulations to evaluate impacts of different forcing agents. The simulated climate has many realistic features of the climate system, with notable improvements in clouds and precipitation compared to E3SMv1. E3SMv1 suffered from an excessively high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of 5.3 K. In E3SMv2, ECS is reduced to 4.0 K which is now within the plausible range based on a recent World Climate Research Program assessment. However, a number of important biases remain including a weak Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, deficiencies in the characteristics and spectral distribution of tropical atmospheric variability, and a significant underestimation of the observed warming in the second half of the historical period. An analysis of single‐forcing simulations indicates that correcting the historical temperature bias would require a substantial reduction in the magnitude of the aerosol‐related forcing.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Physics informed neural network can retrieve rate and state friction parameters from acoustic monitoring of laboratory stick-slip experiments
Various machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques have been recently applied to the forecasting of laboratory earthquakes from friction experiments. The magnitude and timing of shear failures in stick-slip cycles are predicted using features extracted from the recorded ultrasonic or acoustic emission (AE) signals. In addition, the Rate and State Friction (RSF) constitutive laws are extensively used to model the frictional behavior of faults. In this work, we use data from shear experiments coupled with passive acoustic (variance, kurtosis, and AE rate) interleaved with active source ultrasonic monitoring (transmitted wave amplitude) to develop physics-informed neural network (PINN) models incorporating the RSF law and AE rate generation equation with wave amplitude serving as a proxy for friction state variable. This PINN framework allows learning RSF parameters from stick-slip experiments rather than measuring them through a series of velocity step experiments. We observe that when the stick-slip cycles are irregular, the PINN models outperform the data-driven DL models. Transfer learning (TL) PINN models are also developed by pre-training on data collected at one normal stress level followed by forecasting shear failures and retrieving RSF parameters at other stress levels (i.e., with different recurrence intervals) after retraining on a limited amount of new data. Our findings suggest that TL models perform better compared to standalone models. Both standalone and TL PINN-estimated RSF parameters and their ground truth values show excellent agreements thus demonstrating that RSF parameters can be retrieved from laboratory stick-slip experiments using the corresponding acoustic data and that the transmitted wave amplitude provides a good representation of the evolving frictional state during stick-slips.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
FEW questions, many answers: using machine learning to assess how students connect food–energy–water (FEW) concepts
There is growing support and interest in postsecondary interdisciplinary environmental education which integrate concepts and disciplines in addition to providing varied perspectives. There is a need to assess student learning in these programs as well as rigorous evaluation of educational practices, especially of complex synthesis concepts. This work tests a text classification machine learning model as a tool to assess student systems thinking capabilities using two questions anchored by the Food-Energy-Water (FEW) Nexus phenomena by answering two questions (1) Can machine learning models be used to identify instructor-determined important concepts in student responses? (2) What do college students know about the interconnections between food, energy and water, and how have students assimilated systems thinking into their constructed responses about FEW? Reported here are a broad range of model performances across 26 text classification models associated with two different assessment items, with model accuracy ranging from 0.755 to 0.992. Expert-like responses were infrequent in our dataset compared to responses providing simpler, incomplete explanations of the systems presented in the question. For those students moving from describing individual effects to multiple effects, their reasoning about the mechanism behind the system indicates advanced systems thinking ability. Specifically, students exhibit higher expertise for explaining changing water usage than discussing tradeoffs for such changing usage. This research represents one of the first attempts to assess the links between foundational, discipline-specific concepts and systems thinking ability. These text classification approaches to scoring student FEW Nexus Constructed Responses (CR) indicate how these approaches can be used, in addition to several future research priorities for interdisciplinary, practice-based education research. Development of further complex question items using machine learning would allow evaluation of the relationship between foundational concept understanding and integration of those concepts as well as more nuanced understanding of student comprehension of complex interdisciplinary concepts.
96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
A Comparison of Interface Growth Models Applied to Rayleigh–Taylor and Richtmyer–Meshkov Instabilities
Sophisticated numerical models that contain fluid interfaces rely upon interface evolution models to approximate the transition to turbulence near interfaces, in the presence of Rayleigh–Taylor (RTI) or Richtmyer–Meshkov (RMI) instability. Semi-analytical models have been developed in recent decades to predict the interface growth from an initial state into the nonlinear regime. Two of these models are considered in this study. They are the Goncharov and the z-models. Both of these interface models have strengths and weaknesses, which are examined here. Both of them have been implemented in the xRAGE compressible flow solver, which models fluid interfaces. The flow solver provides the fluids acceleration as a body force to the interface model. The purpose of such interface model is to evolve the early times of interface position as a subgrid model within a compressible flow simulation in order to then initialize a turbulence model. In this work, the interface models are assessed and compared for their evolution of RTI and RMI. The z-model performed better than the Goncharov model for all cases that were explored.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Two Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns are Associated with Short-Duration Dry Spells in the Northeastern United States
Large-scale meteorological pattern (LSMP)–based analysis is used in a novel way to understand meteorological conditions before and during short-duration dry spells over the northeastern United States. These LSMPs are useful to assess models and select better-performing models for future projections. Dry-spell events are identified from histograms of consecutive dry days below a daily precipitation threshold. Events lasting 12 days or longer, which correspond to ~10% of dry-spell events, are examined. The 500-hPa stream-function anomaly fields for the first 12 days of each event are time averaged, and k -means clustering is applied to isolate the dry-spell-related LSMPs. The first cluster has a strong low pressure anomaly over the Atlantic Ocean, southeast of the region, and is more common in winter and spring. The second cluster has strong high pressure over east-central North America and is most common during autumn. Over the region, both clusters have negative specific humidity anomalies, negative integrated vapor transport from the north, and subsidence associated with a midlatitude jet stream dipole structure that reinforces upper-level convergence. Subsidence is supported by cold-air advection in the first cluster and the location on the east side of the lower-level high pressure in the second cluster. Extratropical cyclone storm tracks are generally shifted southward of the region during the dry spells. Individual events lie on a continuum between two distinct clusters. These clusters have similar local, but different remote, properties. Although dry spells occur with greater frequency during drought months, most dry spells occur during nondrought months. Significance Statement: This study examines the large-scale weather patterns and meteorological conditions associated with dry-spell events lasting at least 2 weeks while affecting the northeastern United States. A statistical approach groups events together on the basis of similar atmospheric features. We find two distinct sets of patterns that we call large-scale meteorological patterns. These patterns reduce moisture, foster localized sinking, and shift the storm track southward along the Atlantic seaboard, all of which reduce precipitation. Besides greater understanding, knowing the meteorological patterns during short-term dryness in the region provides an important tool to assess how well atmospheric models reproduce these specific patterns. More dry spells occur in non-drought months than in drought months, which means that dry spells can occur without preexisting drought conditions.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Coarse Woody Debris Decomposition Assessment Tool: Model validation and application
Coarse woody debris (CWD) is a significant component of the forest biomass pool; hence a model is warranted to predict CWD decomposition and its role in forest carbon (C) and nutrient cycling under varying management and climatic conditions. A process-based model, CWDDAT (Coarse Woody Debris Decomposition Assessment Tool) was calibrated and validated using data from the FACE (Free Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment) Wood Decomposition Experiment utilizing pine ( Pinus taeda ), aspen ( Populous tremuloides ) and birch ( Betula papyrifera ) on nine Experimental Forests (EF) covering a range of climate, hydrology, and soil conditions across the continental USA. The model predictions were evaluated against measured FACE log mass loss over 6 years. Four widely applied metrics of model performance demonstrated that the CWDDAT model can accurately predict CWD decomposition. The R 2 (squared Pearson’s correlation coefficient) between the simulation and measurement was 0.80 for the model calibration and 0.82 for the model validation ( P <0.01). The predicted mean mass loss from all logs was 5.4% lower than the measured mass loss and 1.4% lower than the calculated loss. The model was also used to assess the decomposition of mixed pine-hardwood CWD produced by Hurricane Hugo in 1989 on the Santee Experimental Forest in South Carolina, USA. The simulation reflected rapid CWD decomposition of the forest in this subtropical setting. The predicted dissolved organic carbon (DOC) derived from the CWD decomposition and incorporated into the mineral soil averaged 1.01 g C m -2 y -1 over the 30 years. The main agents for CWD mass loss were fungi (72.0%) and termites (24.5%), the remainder was attributed to a mix of other wood decomposers. These findings demonstrate the applicability of CWDDAT for large-scale assessments of CWD dynamics, and fine-scale considerations regarding the fate of CWD carbon.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗